Can Ireland make the RWC final?

First topic message reminder :

There is an elephant in the room when it comes to Rugby World Cup, and the elephant’s name is Ireland. Ireland has never made the Semi Finals of the Rugby World Cup, when people suggest the names of teams that have a realistic chance of making the Rugby World Cup final, Ireland merely gets a passing comment, however very few think about it seriously.

After seeing Ireland beating South Africa this past weekend with guile and cunning planning, I started looking at their chances for next year.

Currently the Six Nations champions, although England (4), France (5) and Wales (4) have all won more Six Nation trophies than Ireland (2), it might surprise some that they are only 1 win behind France and 2 wins behind England on the all time Six nation table.

It does suggest that Ireland has been a consistent performer over the period since 2000.

When you look at the Rugby World Cup pool Ireland find themselves in their major competition comes from France, and considering the turmoil they have been under you have to wonder whether France will be able to pull it together before then.

If Ireland wins their pool they are most likely to meet Argentina in their quarter final match, which by recent history could easily see them making the semi finals where they are likely to meet either England, Wales or Australia.

Who wants to bet they don’t have a decent chance of making the final?

PS. I was to peeved off after our poor performance this weekend, and although I have given Ireland their dues I have not congratulated them on their win, so well done, you outplayed, outsmarted and outlasted us on the weekend.

DeludedOptimistorjustDave wrote:
Ireland have less chance than Wales do winning the RWC,out of the home nations Ireland are on par with Scotland, win the odd big game at home but never ever deliver when it matters some would say it is a culture in the Irish psyche, they are CHOKERS.

Dont know where to start so I guess I just keep on laughing

Thanks for the pure unadulterated WUM!

The leinster lesson ? its about the squad not the team? If I were a betting man a few bob on Ireland might not go amiss for sure.

DeludedOptimistorjustDave wrote:A team that have never ever beat the current world champs think they can win.

Ireland have less chance than Wales do winning the RWC,out of the home nations Ireland are on par with Scotland, win the odd big game at home but never ever deliver when it matters some would say it is a culture in the Irish psyche, they are CHOKERS.

Did you have a bag of Lemons this week, Dave? Be careful of the word 'chokers' - 10 times unlucky for Wales might be considered a habit that touches strongly on the word. So hush is advised.

When you put it like this, yes. It's not so easy to top a group, but they did it last time so perhaps they'll do it again. Who is in their group this year?

If they face Wales in the QF again I only see it going the same way as last time....

That's fightin' talk Saint!

Good man. That's how I like it.

DeludedOptimistorjustDave wrote:A team that have never ever beat the current world champs think they can win.

Ireland have less chance than Wales do winning the RWC,out of the home nations Ireland are on par with Scotland, win the odd big game at home but never ever deliver when it matters some would say it is a culture in the Irish psyche, they are CHOKERS.

Careful now!

In all seriousness, keeping our feet on the ground but optimistic about the future. The World Cup is not on the menu this season. Another Six Nations title very much is.

SecretFly wrote:To hell with the Lions.  They can have Lancaster.... or Gatland again.  

+1 - let Fatland manage the lions (yawn) , keep joe on these shores

majesticimperialman wrote:Biltong.

I think it is a bit early to be thinking of RWC final. They ( Ireland) won their first game of the Ais, lets see how the rest of the Ais + 6 nations go before then.

Plus it will depend a lot on how many injuries they have in the last 2/3 weeks before the RWC starts.

Ireland did well this week end, the only NH team to beat one of the big 3. But that does not mean that they will make the RWC final.

Just saying.

Dead on, majestic.  The thread is only surmising on 'Can'.  And even before the weekend game, Ireland could.  As England could.  As indeed even Scotland could.  As someone in the family used to say: "It all depends on the monsoon"

I am not sure Scotland could make the WC final in any realistic sense. semis is a decent target

Here's some reasons/excuses for Ireland always performing poorly at world cups.

1. Unlucky with the draw. They've often gotten the hosts, or Argentina as 3rd seed, or both. This is probably the easiest group they've had, although it does have our tormentors France, they're all over the shop. Like 2011, we can really focus one big game in the group, which is our thing. And like 2011 it's on neutral ground but we'll probably have huge support plus probably the backing of the host nations fans. English people can correct me on that if I'm wrong.

2. No depth. Lose a few players and we were feiced. Not the case anymore as the weekends game showed.

3. Attrition. Ireland have always tended to play for long periods without the ball. You can tackle like demons for one game and win. But game after game, week after week? Much more difficult. It takes a toll. I don't know if we can start winning the battle for possession more often against the top teams. We didn't at the weekend.

If you forced me to bet on it today, I'd say we'll have our best RWC to date but narrowly fall to England with home advantage in the semi's.

You never know how it might work out TJ.  Of course, the whole thread is pointless really because 'can' is a word that relies so much on chance.  
But chance is sometimes all you need.  I'm back again to France in the last world cup!  If ever a side didn't 'deserve' to get to a final, it had to be them.  But got to it they did, as they tried to trip themselves up at every opportunity getting there.

I realized that Ireland could win the whole jamboree after the All Blacks match, which they did not deserve to lose.

Like all sides who are contenders, the real issue is that Ireland rely very heavily on a couple of players who are genuinely world class but whose replacements are neither as talismanic nor as skillful. As has been pointed out above, lots players like O'Mahoney, Henry, Cronin and Ross have made a real step up in recent years and are now first team challengers in a way that they weren't before. However, injuries could derail the whole Ireland bid - god forbid, obviously, but take Sexton, Murray, POC, Bowe and Heaslip out of the equation and it looks like a different side altogether.

That said, all of the above have historically had relatively few injury problems. They could do it with the draw that they've got.

I don't think Bowe is that influential any more. He's arguably been surpassed by Trimble in the last year or so.

majesticimperialman wrote:Biltong.

I think it is a bit early to be thinking of RWC final. They ( Ireland) won their first game of the Ais, lets see how the rest of the Ais + 6 nations go before then.

Plus it will depend a lot on how many injuries they have in the last 2/3 weeks before the RWC starts.

Ireland did well this week end, the only NH team to beat one of the big 3. But that does not mean that they will make the RWC final.

Just saying.

Just saying, the question was 'can' they reach a final. Biltong never committed that they 'will' make the final. I do agree with everything else you've written though, good post.

Notch wrote:I don't think Bowe is that influential any more. He's arguably been surpassed by Trimble in the last year or so.

Aces, We'll have him, then. Tommy Seymour is working out very well for us.

thebandwagonsociety wrote:

majesticimperialman wrote:Biltong.

I think it is a bit early to be thinking of RWC final. They ( Ireland) won their first game of the Ais, lets see how the rest of the Ais + 6 nations go before then.

Plus it will depend a lot on how many injuries they have in the last 2/3 weeks before the RWC starts.

Ireland did well this week end, the only NH team to beat one of the big 3. But that does not mean that they will make the RWC final.

Just saying.

Just saying, the question was 'can' they reach a final.  Biltong never committed that they 'will' make the final.  I do agree with everything else you've written though, good post.

yeah, I am just throwing their name in the hat as well, once you get to the QF it is one off performances that count, and as Ireland showed this past weekend in European conditions they can win those matches.

Besides, my question was not whether they can win it, but whether they can make the final

brennomac wrote:

SecretFly wrote:To hell with the Lions.  They can have Lancaster.... or Gatland again.  

+1 - let Fatland manage the lions (yawn) , keep joe on these shores

If the Lions want another trophy then Gatland should coach. After all, trophy is his middle name. What's Joe middle name, magician? Because he pulls the wool over people's eyes?

George Carlin wrote:I realized that Ireland could win the whole jamboree after the All Blacks match, which they did not deserve to lose.

Like all sides who are contenders, the real issue is that Ireland rely very heavily on a couple of players who are genuinely world class but whose replacements are neither as talismanic nor as skillful. As has been pointed out above, lots players like O'Mahoney, Henry, Cronin and Ross have made a real step up in recent years and are now first team challengers in a way that they weren't before. However, injuries could derail the whole Ireland bid - god forbid, obviously, but take Sexton, Murray, POC, Bowe and Heaslip out of the equation and it looks like a different side altogether.

That said, all of the above have historically had relatively few injury problems. They could do it with the draw that they've got.

A while back people were saying we would struggle without Healy, OBrien, Ferris, O'Driscoll etc. Anyway all teams have players they rely on. Would NZ have won the WC without McCaw. No they wouldnt and without Carter they made hard work of it.

We will always be missing players. We hammered Wales without Poc and Bowe this year for example. You just have to adapt.

We also just achieved one of our best wins ever without OBrien and Healy. I reckon keeping Murray and Sexton injury free will be key. Everyone else has good depth behind them. Most teams miss their captain. Poc

The Saint wrote:

brennomac wrote:

SecretFly wrote:To hell with the Lions.  They can have Lancaster.... or Gatland again.  

+1 - let Fatland manage the lions (yawn) , keep joe on these shores

If the Lions want another trophy then Gatland should coach. After all, trophy is his middle name. What's Joe middle name, magician? Because he pulls the wool over people's eyes?

Will he use Irish players already pre-coached to AB competitive levels by the Magician??  
And yes, Joe pulls entire sheep over people's eyes.  It all started with Wales and Gats.

SecretFly wrote:

The Saint wrote:

brennomac wrote:

SecretFly wrote:To hell with the Lions.  They can have Lancaster.... or Gatland again.  

+1 - let Fatland manage the lions (yawn) , keep joe on these shores

If the Lions want another trophy then Gatland should coach. After all, trophy is his middle name. What's Joe middle name, magician? Because he pulls the wool over people's eyes?

Will he use Irish players already pre-coached to AB competitive levels by the Magician??   
And yes, Joe pulls entire sheep over people's eyes.  It all started with Wales and Gats.

I'm looking forward to Gatlandball vs Schmidtball in the next 6 Nations .

The Saint wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

The Saint wrote:

brennomac wrote:

SecretFly wrote:To hell with the Lions.  They can have Lancaster.... or Gatland again.  

+1 - let Fatland manage the lions (yawn) , keep joe on these shores

If the Lions want another trophy then Gatland should coach. After all, trophy is his middle name. What's Joe middle name, magician? Because he pulls the wool over people's eyes?

Will he use Irish players already pre-coached to AB competitive levels by the Magician??   
And yes, Joe pulls entire sheep over people's eyes.  It all started with Wales and Gats.

I'm looking forward to Gatlandball vs Schmidtball in the next 6 Nations .

We'll be limbering up for the WC by then.  Probably blooding more rookies and testing patterns.  Our mind will be on other things....................... if we lose.
Always get your excuses in early

GunsGerms wrote:If Ireland made the final they would get slaughtered IMO. Doesnt matter against who but presuming it is against Eng, SA, NZ or Fra then it wouldnt be pretty because given all those teams have made multiple finals before I reckon the absence of memory of what it takes to win and the unique pressures involved would make Ireland crumble. I would find it really hard to watch it anyway.

There has only ever been one RWC without a NH side. Who knows it could be Irelands turn, I would be pretty pleased to make the semi anyway. If we do Schmidt should be given a blank cheque by the IRFU to with it whatever he wants.

Guns that team if choc full of winners. 10 of the current team have won two six nations, the Leinster and Munster guys have won Heineken cups and Pro12s championships. I know the RWC is a completely different kettle of fish, but aside from NZ I think we could beat any of those on the day

Sure the ABs often really go inside their shell in finals. If it happens to them I reckon we will implode altogether.

But Guns, the ABs implode sometimes because of the heat of expectation that has grown for usually four solid years in advance.  

"You're top of the pile in rankings, let's see how good you are in the competition that ranks 'Best in the World'?"

That gets to them because they realise they are the only side usually under such pressure from the beginning.  The WC only bestows a title - the ABs know that - but its a title they crave for self-respect.

Ireland won't ever be under such cyclical expectations ever!  If they get to a final it'd be a big surprise.  The media would say we're happy to get there, god love'em and look at their fans - delerious!

And that would be the lovely time to spring the surprise; - em....well, there's a thing that we're not just happy to get there.  We actually want to win it - and apologies to all for the offence
That would be fun, to get to a final and people expecting us to go home happy - and us with other things on our mind.

GunsGerms wrote:Sexton is the only irreplaceable player as we have. Ryan, McCarthy, Henderson and Tuohy all experienced locks cant make the team. All teams have one or two irreplaceable players.

em, Conor Murray. We have very poor back-up for him.

SecretFly wrote:But Guns, the ABs implode sometimes because of the heat of expectation that has grown for usually four solid years in advance.  

"You're top of the pile in rankings, let's see how good you are in the competition that ranks 'Best in the World'?"

That gets to them because they realise they are the only side usually under such pressure from the beginning.  The WC only bestows a title - the ABs know that - but its a title they crave for self-respect.

Ireland won't ever be under such cyclical expectations ever!  If they get to a final it'd be a big surprise.  The media would say we're happy to get there, god love'em and look at their fans - delerious!

And that would be the lovely time to spring the surprise; - em....well, there's a thing that we're not just happy to get there.  We actually want to win it - and apologies to all for the offence  
That would be fun, to get to a final and people expecting us to go home happy - and us with other things on our mind.

We just tend to implode at the quarters. V Wales in '13, V Aus in '91 and v France in '01 some pretty good examples of implosions. Pressure builds the further you get.

Sin é wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:Sexton is the only irreplaceable player as we have. Ryan, McCarthy, Henderson and Tuohy all experienced locks cant make the team. All teams have one or two irreplaceable players.

em, Conor Murray. We have very poor back-up for him.

Agreed. Hence why we need to be blooding Kieran Marmion ASAP, starting with Georgia this weekend. Murray didn't immediately step up to international level (he was for a few years accused of being too slow to the ball at the breakdown), he required game-time to get there. I think Reddan is a good option as backup, but there is no point trying to stretch him to the RWC when the challenger is playing out of his skin for his club.

Well I suppose I was thinking along the lines that Reddan is already very comfortable playing with Sexton so could slot in fairly seemlessly for now. However, given that he will be 35 next year Id be surprised if he makes the WC at this stage.

Marmion needs to start v Georgia for sure.

I think Reddan will still be a very capable scrum half, but what we'd lose should Murray come off would be pretty significant, and I think Marmion could fill that hole better. So impressed with some of his breaks this year, poses a real threat

Hopefully the fact that Henshaw is getting into the team now and holding his own is an indication that form for Connacht will be recognised with caps

ireland could make the final. a lot of things will have to go right along the way. no sexton=no chance. fingers crossed he doesnt get injured before or during.

if ireland dont win their group, and instead france do, it's hard to see Ireland knocking out the ABs in the quarters.

so, win group (beat france), beat Argentina in quarters, then ireland will have to beat the battle hardened winner of group A.

do-able. but i wouldnt bet my house on it as world cup quarters and semis are a different kettle of fish from AIs or 6N league format.

Marshes wrote:

Sin é wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:Sexton is the only irreplaceable player as we have. Ryan, McCarthy, Henderson and Tuohy all experienced locks cant make the team. All teams have one or two irreplaceable players.

em, Conor Murray. We have very poor back-up for him.

Agreed. Hence why we need to be blooding Kieran Marmion ASAP, starting with Georgia this weekend. Murray didn't immediately step up to international level (he was for a few years accused of being too slow to the ball at the breakdown), he required game-time to get there. I think Reddan is a good option as backup, but there is no point trying to stretch him to the RWC when the challenger is playing out of his skin for his club.

I think he did pretty good. Its a load of nonsense about him being too slow to the ball. Reddan (and other SHs) may get to the breakdown fast, but when they get there they have to start looking around as to what they are going to do (or in the case of Reddan a lot of the time), fling the ball out somewhere and hope someone is there to do something with it. Murray doesn't need to stop and think of what he is going to do. He already decided when he gets there.

From the little I've seen of Marmion, a major flaw in his game is that he takes too much on himself. That maybe due to Connacht not having a good 10 (or having a very inexperienced 10) but he will have to look at working with his team more if he wants to make the Ireland team even as backup 9.

JJ Hanrahan & Marmion had a very good partnership at the Junior World Cup. Interestingly, Marmion didn't feature with Jackson. Luke McGrath was preferred with him.

He used to be extremely slow. In fairness this it would now appear was mainly because he played for a team with no game plan so hadnt a clue what he was meant to do and was to inexperienced at the time to ad lib.

So if Ireland come second in their group who are they most likely to face? (Typically this is what happens to Ireland in world cups)

France are always better at world cups than during the 6 nations. One reason is that they get serious time to train together then and aren't dragged back to play for their clubs in the middle of it so I imagine that Ireland's recent good record over France may not count as much as we'd like to think.

GunsGerms wrote:He used to be extremely slow. In fairness this it would now appear was mainly because he played for a team with no game plan so hadnt a clue what he was meant to do and was to inexperienced at the time to ad lib.

Yes...you are of course completely correct The game plan was so poor and he was so slow the team he played for didnt make the Heinieken cup semi two years in a row when he played....

Also no one as libs under Joe....that is certainly not allowed...

Buck up man...you are becoming a complete parody of yourself....

Intotouch wrote:So if Ireland come second in their group who are they most likely to face? (Typically this is what happens to Ireland in world cups)

France are always better at world cups than during the 6 nations. One reason is that they get serious time to train together then and aren't dragged back to play for their clubs in the middle of it so I imagine that Ireland's recent good record over France may not count as much as we'd like to think.

Win the group; probably Argentina
Second place; probably the All Blacks

So obviously the answer to the question really depends on whether we can win the group? I believe we can and should but France vs Ireland is too far off to call realistically. It's why this is just silly season speculation.

I do believe anything less than winning our group outright with four wins isn't good enough with the draw we have. Beyond that, it's in the lap of the gods.

Knowing Ireland we'll win the group, take Argentina for granted, and lose.

chin up old boy!

argentina are no walkover. their win vs Australia last month showed that. but if ireland do win their group i think they will beat Argentina. when ireland have blown up previously its been in the group stage where they underestimated opponents. hard to see that happening this time around.

Thus Georgia is a nice little tester for meeting sides you think you might beat and smoke too many cigars during the training week thinking a few dry Martini's will be enough preparation.

Thus why we should savage Georgia if we can.  Sustain tempo, sustain 'series' intent and drive, sustain greed and ruthlessness.

If I see a 'take it easy' approach to Georgia, I'll be annoyed.  If I see a 'take it easy' approach to Georgia that Georgia capitalises on to stay in the game longer than they should, I'll be annoyed.  If Georgia win................... All hell will break lose!

Where's Portnoy?

honestly i think it's too early to say if they are contenders or not. Wait till after the 6 nations.

nathan wrote:honestly i think it's too early to say if they are contenders or not. Wait till after the 6 nations.

If they beat Aus, SA; and then consider the form their bogey team France always seems to be in you'd assume they can win the 6 Nations.

We can beat Georgia. That's as far as we're going.

Wales for 6N. And England for the WC....

Ah, that takes the pressure off.

Talking of Ireland's improvement, here's a thing I did after the weekend to look at win records of the top 3 in each hemisphere based on the number of their Championship wins and SH/NH wins - NZ, SA, Aus, Eng, Fra, Irl.

I took ten years as the review period since some of the teams don't play each other that often.   And to see whether teams were improving or not on their overall win record.

It includes all test matches - Championship, tours, Warmups, RWC.

It's ordered alphabetically and then by wins.

What was also interesting was the number of matches that each team has played in total against the other top five.   Ireland the lowest at 53, and the AIGs the highest at nearly double that - 100.  Even allowing for home and away in the 4N, they are the team everyone wants to play as much as possible.   Their win record against the other five is miles ahead of any other team in the last decade.

All I get is graph redX Pot. Too cryptic for me to analyse.

SecretFly wrote:All I get is graph redX Pot.   Too cryptic for me to analyse.

Apologies - Fixed