Aviva Premiership - Round 21 Preview

First topic message reminder :

Just one set of home and away fixtures to go and still all to play for in the upper reaches of the table.

Positions

Northampton 71pts
Bath 66pts
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Saracens 62pts
Leicester 60pts
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Exeter 59pts
Wasps 57pts
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Sale 49pts
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Harlequins 48pts
Gloucester 43pts
London Irish 37pts
Newcastle 28pts
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London Welsh 1pt




Fixtures

Fri 8th May

19:45 Harlequins  v   Bath      BT Sport
Both sides still have very much to play for. Quins are just one point behind Sale in the fight for a champions Cup play-off spot, while Bath need to win their final two fixtures to guarantee a home semi-final and still need one win to guarantee a play-off spot. this will be Bath's 6th Friday night fixture of the season and so far they have a 100% record. the Quins back row shoudl provide Sam burgess with the biggest test of his BS abilities so far, while Danny Care will be on the lookout for any positional lapses from the former RL man. However do Quins have the inner belief to get right in Bath's face? Can the look to isolate and neutralise George Ford? I am not sure they can.


Sat 9th May

14:00 Sale Sharks  v   Newcastle Falcons

Sale's season has started to unravel, while Falcons have offered more than they have actually been able to deliver. Sale will hope for more from Cipriani this week as they seek the win that would keep them ahead of Quins, while Mark Cueto could be appearing in his last home fixture for the Sharks. Falcons lost the reverse fixture in a scrappy match. and can expect to face a Sale back row that will harry them for the full 80 minutes. In the end it may come down to whether the Falcons mdfield can keep making their tackles on Sale's PI pair.


15:00 Gloucester  v   London Irish

With Gloucester's win in the Challenge cup giving them a Champions Cup play-off spot, this fixture is really only for pride. A repeat of the Gloucester/Falcons tryfest would please neutrals.


15:00 Northampton v   London Welsh
Any win guarantees a home semi-final for Saints. The expected TBP win will guarantee top spot in the table should Bath fail to get anything other than a TBP win at the Stoop.


15:15 Wasps  v   Leicester Tigers BT Sport

Wasps came to Welford Rd in their last fixture before the move to Coventry and came second best in a turgid arm wrestle of a game. They will be looking to ensure that in the reverse fixture, the first M69 derby, the game is played at a much higher tempo. Since the early season thrashings at Bath and Gloucester, Tigers have had the meanset defence in the AP. However that does not tell the full story as it can often be caught short of numbers when facing fleet footed opposition. there are few teams more fleet footed than Wasps. they have power in the back row and real pace in the backs. It is possible this could be a painful defeat that all but ends the Tigers season. Yes somehow find the will to win and play-off Rugby is all but guaranteed. Both teams hope to welcome back long term absentees into their second row options with Launchbury and Slater set to make an appearance. Tigers would be really bolstered by the possible return from injury of Marcos Ayerza.


Sun 10th May

14:00 Saracens  v   Exeter Chiefs BT Sport

Win and Sarries make the play-offs, as well as improving the chances of the winner at the Ricoh. Depending on Bath's result at the Stoop they could even move back into second place and with just London Welsh to come all but guaranteed home semi final. Lose and they could drop out of the top 4. any player for player comparison would favour the team from Barnet - but Exeter have been making fools of such comparisons ever since they won promotion. If they can treat Saracen's scrum with the same disdain as they did Saints, if Ewers and Waldrom can continue to win the back row battle as they have done for much of the season then the tyros in the backs such as Slade and Hill could make it a very long afternoon for Sarries and their fans.

That's a new one for me, "most teams don't kick for touch these days".

feel free to parade your cyclops eye as regards leicester.

but try not to embarrass yourself when it comes to top level international rugby.

follow the trends of fitness and infield kicking in 6Ns, 4Ns and AIs

at the top level, most teams kick infield to regather, pressure, and turnover the catcher. they do not kick for touch unless they are in their own 22.

Wow, was not expecting that. Stunningly intense performance. Cannot quibble with the red card, especially after bemoaning the rise of those sorts of challenges that keep going unpunished. Hope that sets a benchmark and we see more punished (shame Barnes did not start this crusade with BillyV 4 weeks ago)

quinsforever wrote:feel free to parade your cyclops eye as regards leicester.

but try not to embarrass yourself when it comes to top level international rugby.

follow the trends of fitness and infield kicking in 6Ns, 4Ns and AIs

at the top level, most teams kick infield to regather, pressure, and turnover the catcher. they do not kick for touch unless they are in their own 22.

Embarrass myself? Kicking to touch is a tactic, just like any other. you first said no team uses it, now you have changed it to only international teams don't use it. Both are incorrect.

You kick to touch if either you have a better line out or the opposition back three re dangerous in open play. On paper both of those applied today for Tigers.

nathan wrote:

quinsforever wrote:feel free to parade your cyclops eye as regards leicester.

but try not to embarrass yourself when it comes to top level international rugby.

follow the trends of fitness and infield kicking in 6Ns, 4Ns and AIs

at the top level, most teams kick infield to regather, pressure, and turnover the catcher. they do not kick for touch unless they are in their own 22.

Embarrass myself? Kicking to touch is a tactic, just like any other. you first said no team uses it, now you have changed it to only international teams don't use it. Both are incorrect.

here's what i actually said. amazing you can misquote something posted only a few posts prior

"burgess's claims as ball carrying back rower option are growing weekly too.

i'm looking forwards to launch/lawes at 4/5 complemented very well by burgess as second ball carrier in the back row. dont expect to see it as starting lineup but wouldnt be surprised if it is by the latter stages of RWC. yes we lose something at lineout without wood, but most teams dont kick for touch these days, preferring the infield option, so i reckon burgess has to be in the squad"

1) i said most teams

2) my whole statement is exclusively in reference to the England side, and their opponents, so by definition top international teams

Leicester played great today but lets not conflate tigers this season with a top international side shall we?

Quinn, you have a bit of a reputation on here for talking guff, best you give it a rest for awhile.

formerly known as Sam wrote:You kick to touch if either you have a better line out or the opposition back three re dangerous in open play. On paper both of those applied today for Tigers.

actually i dont quite agree with the second part of that re back 3. if the opposition back 3 are dangerous, like England's, then as Ireland did, you kick very high and never too deep. Ireland only once kicked for touch outside their 22 iirc. and ireland's lineout was superior to englands. top international sides play an infield game to attempt to exhaust, disorient, disorganise and therefore exploit opposition. in addition to having great footballing skills that allow them to neutralise the counter from over-kicking, and back their defensive ability to turn over the isolated catcher and potentially win penalties for holding on etc.

what leicester did today has no bearing on my statement about which players are the right ones to select for England. as international sides do not generally kick to touch in the same way some club sides do. which i believe i have already mentioned lol.

nathan wrote:Quinn, you have a bit of a reputation on here for talking guff, best you give it a rest for awhile.

comedy gold. i will have to frame that. you misquote me, i repost what you misquoted me about, and that's guff?

look at the statistics. go back and see what happened ireland vs england in the 6Ns. look at the numbers from Eng vs NZ in the AIs.

spouting your usual one-eyed, ill considered twaddle just doesnt really count as an argument when compared to facts.

quinsforever wrote:

nathan wrote:Quinn, you have a bit of a reputation on here for talking guff, best you give it a rest for awhile.

comedy gold. i will have to frame that. you misquote me, i repost what you misquoted me about, and that's guff?

look at the statistics. go back and see what happened ireland vs england in the 6Ns. look at the numbers from Eng vs NZ in the AIs.

spouting your usual one-eyed, ill considered twaddle just doesnt really count as an argument when compared to facts.

One eyed? Trouble is your facts are normally distorted to support your argument.

Edit: anyway, for the sake of this thread, we'll have to agree to disagree and move on.

Just seen that the attendance at the Ricoh was reported as a smidge over 32k, so a few hundred under capacity, but a new stadium record.

Have to say - utter Love sacks. From where I was sat I could see a couple of thousand empty seats. Add in the stand I was in and I woudl have thought there were "only" around 29k people sat watching. Damned fine attendance though - probably approx 30% Wasps, 30% neutral (will become Wasps over time?) and 40% Tigers.

Finding it hard to separate my youngest daughter from her "Je suis Logo" wig

quinsforever wrote:

formerly known as Sam wrote:You kick to touch if either you have a better line out or the opposition back three re dangerous in open play. On paper both of those applied today for Tigers.

actually i dont quite agree with the second part of that re back 3. if the opposition back 3 are dangerous, like England's, then as Ireland did, you kick very high and never too deep. Ireland only once kicked for touch outside their 22 iirc. and ireland's lineout was superior to englands. top international sides play an infield game to attempt to exhaust, disorient, disorganise and therefore exploit opposition. in addition to having great footballing skills that allow them to neutralise the counter from over-kicking, and back their defensive ability to turn over the isolated catcher and potentially win penalties for holding on etc.

what leicester did today has no bearing on my statement about which players are the right ones to select for England. as international sides do not generally kick to touch in the same way some club sides do. which i believe i have already mentioned lol.

Tigers started with the high bombs. Specifically targeting Wade with Morris. Became difficult when Bai went off as he was the defensive lynch pin and with only one centre there wasn't the same quality in defensive line. Kicking to the corner allowed Tigers to pin Wasps back and stop them gathering try scoring momentum.

Ireland didn't kick to the corner as England are well drilled outside the opposition 22 (inside thy insist on driving from the tail in the most telegraphed play in international rugby). It was an easy out as England would kick to touch and Best was flakey towing in all tournament. The bomb allowed their excellent chase, taller gaelic football trained back three to chase and try knew England dropped Ford back to cover and not a forward so there was even less height and muscle to contest any breakdown. That's what Ireland wanted, breakdowns they are streets ahead at the breakdown both legally and not so legally.

You've got to play to your strengths and adapt as the game does. There's no definitive strategy for all teams.

LondonTiger wrote:Just seen that the attendance at the Ricoh was reported as a smidge over 32k, so a few hundred under capacity, but a new stadium record.

Have to say - utter Love sacks. From where I was sat I could see a couple of thousand empty seats. Add in the stand I was in and I woudl have thought there were "only" around 29k people sat watching. Damned fine attendance though - probably approx 30% Wasps, 30% neutral (will become Wasps over time?) and 40% Tigers.

Finding it hard to separate my youngest daughter from her "Je suis Logo" wig

Interesting regarding attendance. Wasps are keeping a pretty high attendance lvel. it will be interesting to see if it is sustainable for the duration of a complete season. if it is, they are in really good shape going forwards. How is the stadium? Does it seem like an older, tired stadium? or a nicer reasonably contemporary one?

Well it felt new, but then it is pretty new. God the old Highfield Rd in Coventry was bad.

Excuse my ignorance, but do all those people who put money up for bonds get a season ticket for Wasps as part of that?

Ozzy3213 wrote:Excuse my ignorance, but do all those people who put money up for bonds get a season ticket for Wasps as part of that?

No.

6.5% annual interest and capital back at end of the term (May 2022)

The bonds are purely financial there's nothing rugby related there other than that they are issued by a rugby club. Wasps still have to use the money to generate income and pay the interest and then the investment in time.

Enjoying the Exeter Saracens match. 17-17 at half-time with Waldrom adding to his try tally.

Waldrom has nabbed another try to give Exeter a 24-20 lead with around eight minutes to go.

That means Waldrom has equalled Neil Back's try scoring record for a forward.

Exeter have held on to beat Saracens in their own backyard.

Saracens looked like they might grab the winner when pressing on the line but coughed up the ball on two key occasions.

Sarries should of made that last two on one count. Looks like tigers haven't qualified this week then and will have to beat saints next week else we'll miss out on the play offs for the first time in a decade

Interesting last round to come.

Two passes to touch cost Sarries. Very slack from them in that second half.

Rob Baxter has pointed out that Waldrom could have had more tries this season. As number eight, he would have been the most likely scorer in situations where the ref awarded a penalty try.

nathan wrote:Sarries should of made that last two on one count. Looks like tigers haven't qualified this week then and will have to beat saints next week else we'll miss out on the play offs for the first time in a decade

Saints are a tired club with nothing to play for next week. Absolutely sure Saints will give key players a bit more rest. Bath are now locked into second, so Tigers play for third/fourth. All they need is a W. Will be interesting between Exe and Saracens. Exe host Sale and Saracens go to London Welsh. Saracens will need to out point Exeter, so will likely go out to put 60-70 points on Welsh. Exe will need to score a lot against Sale.

doctor_grey wrote:

nathan wrote:Sarries should of made that last two on one count. Looks like tigers haven't qualified this week then and will have to beat saints next week else we'll miss out on the play offs for the first time in a decade

Saints are a tired club with nothing to play for next week.  Absolutely sure Saints will give key players a bit more rest.  Bath are now locked into second, so Tigers play for third/fourth.  All they need is a W.  Will be interesting between Exe and Saracens.  Exe host Sale and Saracens go to London Welsh.  Saracens will need to out point Exeter, so will likely go out to put 60-70 points on Welsh.  Exe will need to score a lot against Sale.  

Certainly will be a great weekend of rugby coming up

A tigers win means we will finish 3rd lose and most likly 5th.

On our tiny pitch our pack should be key.

Ayerza will start with Youngs and Cole With Mulipola, Leo and Balmain bench

Parling should be fine for next week looking at him after the game not surprising.

Then do we go for

4) Thorn
5) Kitchener
6) Parling
7) Salvi
8) Crane

19) Slater
20) Gibson

Or

4) Slater
5) Parling
6) Gibson
7) Salvi
8) Crane

19) Kitchener
20) Pearce

Or

4) Slater
5) Kitchener
6) Parling
7) Salvi
8) Crane

19) Thorn
20) Gibson

Or

4) Slater
5) Thorn
6) Parling
7) Salvi
8) Crane

19) Kitchener
20) Gibson

Welly wrote: A tigers win means we will finish 3rd lose and most likly 5th.

If Saints win, that automatically puts Saracens in the playoffs......Hmmm.
And if Sale give up more points to Exe than London Welsh do to Saracens, I wonder if someone would claim corruption?

It will be interesting to see what Mallinder chooses to do with selection next week. In what could well be a very feisty encounter, and with the history of red cards between these teams, does he risk his most combustible players?

Saints fans think he Will rest Myler, Corbs, North, and maybe mania or Lawes.

Play offs will be either

Saints V Sarries
Bath V tigers

Or

Saints V Exeter
Bath v Sarries.

Welly wrote: Saints fans think he Will rest Myler, Corbs, North, and maybe mania or Lawes.

Not sure what Mallinder will do. Yesterday's line up was against Welsh was basically the first 15 excluding injuries and I think that was done to try and play into some form and cohesion so I think it will be a mixed team against Tigers next week, not risking anyone with a niggle but basically the first team players to try and build some momentum (hoping maybe that the rest last weekend will see them through to the end of the season now). Or he could just rest everyone and have the LV team captained by Dowson out but that's not his usual style.

Can't see him resting Corbs as based on previous weeks as his form has been poor and Alex Waller has potentially overtaken him at the moment for the starting place. In my opinion (and harsh as this sounds as it mainly due to injuries) his form doesn't warrant a England squad place at the WC. Deserves to go to Matt Mullen.

Agree that next weekend looks really interesting, can't wait.

A very good game from both Sarries and Exeter. Thought Sarries would be too much for the Chiefs to be honest. But i have to say well played the Chiefs, and well played to Weldrom for getting Man of the Match.

Just going from what I have heard.

They were saying he played a near first XV to make sure they will get first.

TBH I would back our pack against a saints full strength pack @ Welford road.

Agree on the packs. Think the back five forwards are pretty even but your front row is stronger with hookers about even (although different styles) but with both your props being significantly superior. In fact with Mulipola you probably have the best 3 props.

Whatever team he selects I think Tigers will win, near full side and I think you will probably sneak it and lesser team with some players rested and it will be more comfortable. Either way I think you will make the playoff's.

The Tigers midfield could be an area of weakness. Bai will be banned, who knows the condition of Allen, Roberts is also injured and Tait limped off with Manu already out. Loamano looked good off the bench but that was only his third game of the season and Smith I think is fit but is a defensive option.

Re the pack I'll be hoping for Ayerza, Youngs, Cole, Slater, Kitchener, Gibson, Salvi, Crane with Parling and Pearce on the bench.

Should be a good game as the derby matches usually are. Not sure West and Mallinder will want to send a weakened side and hand a win to Tigers though.

From what I gather

Injury wise we are fine for next week:

Bad likly to be banned.

Allen likly to be back he is fully training.

But with our pitch Smith would be fine @13 if needs be.

My team would be
1) Ayerza, 2) Youngs, 3) Cole
4) Slater, 5) Parling
6) Gibson, 7) Salvi, 8) Crane
9) Youngs, 10) Burns
12) Allen/Loamanu, 13) Tait/Loamanu/Smith
11) Thompstone, 14) Goneva, 15) Morris

16) Ghilriandini, 17) Mulipola, 18) Balmain, 19) Kitchener, 20) Pearce, 21) Harrison, 22) Bell, 23) Loamanu/Smith/Scully

great games this weekend.

reckon saints will want to put tigers out before the playoffs. local rivalry and all that. cant see mallinder fielding any kind of weakened side at all tbh. especially as this is saints only proper game before the playoffs as playing LW really wasnt.

which should make for a great contest.

quinsforever wrote:great games this weekend.

reckon saints will want to put tigers out before the playoffs. local rivalry and all that. cant see mallinder fielding any kind of weakened side at all tbh. especially as this is saints only proper game before the playoffs as playing LW really wasnt.

which should make for a great contest.

I don't think Saints care about beating Leicester at this particular moment.  Win the rivalry and risk losing the ultimate prize?  A recipe for disaster, in my mind, especially with a tired side.  Maybe Mallinder gives some front line players a run out.  But I would protect the slightly damaged assets, if I were him.  

Being in position to win the playoffs is more important than any match, even a match against Leicester.  It's a shame it has no meaning for Saints.  I suppose on paper before the season started, it seemed like a dream fixture for the last day of the season.

Given that Saracens were always going to be there or thereabouts come play-off time - who thought it was a good idea to have them face-off against the newly promoted team last game of the regular season? I know all teams have played them, and it all evens out, but right now, as a Tigers supporter, I'm feeling a bit hard done by with regards to that fixture, given it's virtually nailed on to deliver Sarries 5 points.

Strangely, I think that Tigers would prefer to finish 4th and go away to Saints in the play-offs. Saints have dramatically lost form lately and Tigers have a good record at Franklins Gardens. I'd worry more about them going away to Bath and key players injuring themselves tripping over hidden sacks full of cash....

Its strange to think that after the season Tigers have had, that they're in contention for top four. But if they do make top four (and I do expect them to win at Welford Rd against Saints) then winning the title is not beyond hope - in fact, it's a distinct possibility. Brian Moore suggested as much in his latest newspaper article. They just seem to have this knack of coming good when it counts.

Lots of talk about Saints being a tired team, but how about Sarries? After a period of just doing enough to win games, they have now lost three on the bounce.


As to Saints - I cannot see them picking a virtual second team as Sarries did last season, but feel that Mallinder should look at giving certain key players the day off to protect them from injury or red cards. I woudl rather we faced a full strength team however.

You'd expect from the last games Leicester will just miss out even with Northamptons plunge in form but you never know. You'd expect the big players to be rested for the important games now.

Jimpy hard done by? Really?

Saracens had 5 tough consecutive games in a row - Racing Metro away,Tigers home, Clermont away, Saints away, Exeter home.

About time Saracens had an easy fixture.

As for the Saracens-Exeter game - firstly well done Exeter, simple but straightforward gameplan was very effective. Waldrom was certainly the star player for Exeter.

The likes of Farrell and Ashton have damaged their chances of being in the RWC squad. Decision making from both was questionable at times. Ashton in particular blew a huge opportunity by not running straight for the corner with just a hooker coming to cover.

Farrell should have steered Saracens to victory - his reputation and form is not where it was in last year's 6 nations.

Far too many errors at key times. Saracens created more try scoring opportunities than Exeter but were not clinical enough. In contrast Exeter were very effective from close range with the pick and go.

No 7&1/2 wrote:You'd expect from the last games Leicester will just miss out even with Northamptons plunge in form but you never know. You'd expect the big players to be rested for the important games now.

TBF the only team we have lost to @ home has been Irish.

When we had a team of:
1) Bristow, 2) Ghiraldini, 3) Balmain
4) De Chaves, 5) Kitchener
6) Gibson, 7) Salvi, 8) Crane
9) Youngs, 10) Burns (a massively out of form burns)
12) Williams, 13) Goneva
11) Benjamin, 14) Scully, 15) Tait

16) Briggs, 17) Brugnara, 18) Pasquali, 19) Wells, 20) Pearce, 21) Barbieri, 22) Harrison, 23) Smith

Compared to a liky team of:
1) Ayerza, 2) Youngs, 3) Cole
4) Slater, 5) Parling,
6) Gibson, 7) Salvi, 8) Crane
9) Youngs, 10) Burns (A In form Burns)
12) Loamanu/Allen, 13) Tait
11) Thompstone, 14) Goneva, 15) Morris

16) Ghiraldini, 17) Mulipola, 18) Balmain, 19) Kitchener, 20) Pearce, 21) Harrison, 22) Bell, 23) Smith/Scully

Yes Saints are favourites but to think if saints play out of form they we beat Tigers, I think is being harsh on Tigers home record.

I just think that this year Northampton are quite a bit better. Know you've had a bit of a revival but I don't really see you winning. It does depend a bit on who is rested and who isn't but from when I've seen them Leicester you play well when your pack gets the upper hand and I can't see that happening.

beshocked wrote:Jimpy hard done by? Really?

Saracens had 5 tough consecutive games in a row - Racing Metro away,Tigers home, Clermont away, Saints away, Exeter home.

About time Saracens had an easy fixture.

As for the Saracens-Exeter game - firstly well done Exeter, simple but straightforward gameplan was very effective. Waldrom was certainly the star player for Exeter.

The likes of Farrell and Ashton have damaged their chances of being in the RWC squad. Decision making from both was questionable at times. Ashton in particular blew a huge opportunity by not running straight for the corner with just a hooker coming to cover.

Farrell should have steered Saracens to victory - his reputation and form is not where it was in last year's 6 nations.

Far too many errors at key times. Saracens created more try scoring opportunities than Exeter but were not clinical enough. In contrast Exeter were very effective from close range with the pick and go.

Oh for goodness sake, lighten up will you! My comment was absolutely tongue in cheek - alluded to when I said 'it all evens out'....  

The discussion RE Ashton has been done to death, he shouldn't be anywhere near the WC squad, and his performance yesterday reaffirmed my opinion. Farrell less so - I think he'll make the squad, but he wont be 1st choice 10 that's for sure. Saracens should be hugely disappointed. Exeter had 3 chances to score tries, they took them. Saracens huffed and puffed but didn't have anything in return. They missed golden chances and didn't show enough composure. It shows how much they've been relying on Vunipola.

McCall is clutching at straws when he stated yesterday that he doesn't know how motivated Sale will be for their visit to Exeter for when they went out of Europe, they lost their next game by over 50 points.

He said, "We just have to get five points from our game and score as many points as we can." Apart from that being a no-brainer, I reckon Saracens will need a 70 - 80 point win.

No 7&1/2 wrote:I just think that this year Northampton are quite a bit better. Know you've had a bit of a revival but I don't really see you winning. It does depend a bit on who is rested and who isn't but from when I've seen them Leicester you play well when your pack gets the upper hand and I can't see that happening.

TBH the pack is the one thing i would expect Leicester to get the upper hand in.

Well if that happens you'll walk it.

Jimpy you are right about most of that but I am not sure Sale are going to capitulate quite as badly as you think. I know they have nothing to play for but still expect them to hold more of a resistance than London Welsh.

I don't expect Sale to play so badly that 70-80 is needed.

Sounds like the last weekend will rely heavily on how each team takes the game seriously.

Farrell has lost the winning mentality - the vast majority of games in the last year or so he's been involved in Saracens have lost. It's not good enough for someone who wants to be 10 for England. When a 10 cannot lead their team to victory.....

Didn't think he bad beshocked? He had that beautiful pass out to Goode which was then messed up. Could/should have led to something.

beshocked wrote:Jimpy you are right about most of that but I am not sure Sale are going to capitulate quite as badly as you think. I know they have nothing to play for but still expect them to hold more of a resistance than London Welsh.

I don't expect Sale to play so badly that 70-80 is needed.

Sounds like the last weekend will rely heavily on how each team takes the game seriously.

Farrell has lost the winning mentality - the vast majority of games in the last year or so he's been involved in Saracens have lost. It's not good enough for someone who wants to be 10 for England. When a 10 cannot lead their team to victory.....

Ahhhh. So Saracens are underdogs come Saturday?