Wimbledon Day 4 - McHale to the chief. Might have to throw a Li-sicki.

First topic message reminder :

Order of play

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/22713811

First up on centre court, McHale vs Lisicki. No, seriously.

Rafa and Dustin are playing a match with the backdrop of the great "past it" debate....

temporary21 wrote:I don't know. To say that a player will at some point be past it, about 2 years before it probably happens, isn't saying too much to me. Last year he still won a slam.  More than that, he still has scope to come back, the same way the others have

What's he going to do? His three chief rivals have all evolved in different ways, tried different coaches, even different racquets in at least one case

Nadal's static in what he does - his basic game hasn't changed in years

Is he going to do a Roger and get a new coach who basically tells him he needs to do things different?

Or is he going to keep doing the same thing and merely hope it'll come right even though it never does - the definition of madness

2 MP!

Its more the fact that you're wrong, Boggy. To claim Nadal is past it in 2013, and bring it up in 2015, when the results before his wrist injury did ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to back up that assertion... Come on

In sorry I think you're wrong on this. To say a player who's been playing nearly 15 years and many surgeries was past his best is s bit obvious to me.  2 years ago the stats say he wasn't passed it. I'm sorry

Turning point?

Castle ACHING for Nadal to win.

He needs someone to make him play much more aggressive really. A proper old fashioned aggressor like Agassi. Nadal asks the question at least

temporary21 wrote:In sorry I think you're wrong on this. To say a player who's been playing nearly 15 years and many surgeries was past his best is s bit obvious to me.  2 years ago the stats say he wasn't passed it. I'm sorry

If you use results and not your eyes & judgement, then you'd be right.

In my book, failing to win a BP leaves you open to get broken in the next game... It's going that way so often I'm a tiny bit worried for Dustin's serve for the match...

During the changeover, Brown can think about that first MP. Good opportunity to choke now. Will he?

If this was Fed losing this you'd have Castle/McEnroe salivating. Why do they have such a fancrush on the moonballer?

summerblues wrote:During the changeover, Brown can think about that first MP.  Good opportunity to choke now.  Will he?

Even had 2
However, he won a match point against Nadal before, so he can certainly do it again!

Oh Man!!!!

Staggering. Rafa Nadal suffers another early exit at Wimbledon to a lowly ranked player.

Brown really played some great stuff to get the biggest win of his career and go through to the 3rd Round. For Rafa - well what can you say?

Congrats Dustin!

Josiah Maiestas wrote:If this was Fed losing this you'd have Castle/McEnroe salivating. Why do they have such a fancrush on the moonballer?

I dunno. Maybe it's the numerous slams and the way he forced Roger to play even better

temporary21 wrote:In sorry I think you're wrong on this. To say a player who's been playing nearly 15 years and many surgeries was past his best is s bit obvious to me.  2 years ago the stats say he wasn't passed it. I'm sorry

any surgeries? I agree he is past his best. A given. But it has got nothing to do with 'surgeries'.

Nadal.

Brown. Well played.

Yes!!!!!!

Wow, Dustin does it again. I never thought he would be able to beat Rafa with his game style.

As always - and with apologies to Rafa's fans - I am elated to see Rafa go out early, but this time specifically to a player with a very exciting game style.

Very very enjoyable match all around.

I can't believe he's actually dropped points!! Will probably play Hamburg for some confidence, surely? Yes I'll be trekking Hamburg-> Bavaria at that time, but that not why I'm mentioning it... Honest.

Well done to brown. Murrats job just got easier. Rafa has 6 months with nowt to defend now, get an idea where he is

CaledonianCraig wrote:Staggering. Rafa Nadal suffers another early exit at Wimbledon to a lowly ranked player.

Brown really played some great stuff to get the biggest win of his career and go through to the 3rd Round. For Rafa - well what can you say?

Well, Dustin Brown is now 2-0 in his H2H with Rafa, not bad for world #102 (and soon #80 minimum)

Further on rankings btw: Rafa could leave the Top 10 if:
- JWT makes it to the SF (meaning Murray doesn't)
or
- Simon, Goffin, Anderson, Dimitrov or Monfils makes it to the final (Isner would tie)
or
- we get a shocking winner within: Isner, Gasquet, Troicki, Mayer, Tomic, RBA, Seppi, Karlovic (5th set currently) or Andujar (who just beat Lukas Rosol btw)

The sad thing is that Brown will probably dump it in the next round.

I wonder how much people know about knee surgery, anyway people root for him because of all he's done, which can't ever be taken away. Soo it's brown v  someone and ward v posposil in that eighth now right?

Tbh posposil should be feeling great. He's a good chance now of the quarters!

biugo wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Staggering. Rafa Nadal suffers another early exit at Wimbledon to a lowly ranked player.

Brown really played some great stuff to get the biggest win of his career and go through to the 3rd Round. For Rafa - well what can you say?

Well, Dustin Brown is now 2-0 in his H2H with Rafa, not bad for world #102 (and soon #80 minimum)

Further on rankings btw: Rafa could leave the Top 10 if:
- JWT makes it to the SF (meaning Murray doesn't)
or
- Simon, Goffin, Anderson, Dimitrov or Monfils makes it to the final (Isner would tie)
or
- we get a shocking winner within: Isner, Gasquet, Troicki, Mayer, Tomic, RBA, Seppi, Karlovic (5th set currently) or Andujar (who just beat Lukas Rosol btw)

That's a surprise. He's a hug chance of still being top ten.  With 6 months of free points... That's a bit of a bonus

we've got: Ward, Pospisil, Troicki, Brown
against: JWT, Ivo/Dolgo, Seppi, Murray

second pack might feel they've got their SF spot if they can win their lot

He'll clearly add many points but how many I'm not sure. He's become vulnerable again to big hitting, which was his problem in the very early days (Youzhny, Blake) and there's a new generation of very big hitters. In between at his peak he ate them for breakfast.

temporary21 wrote:I wonder how much people know about knee surgery, anyway people root for him because of all he's done, which can't ever be taken away. Soo it's brown v  someone and ward v posposil in that eighth now right?

Plenty. Are you classing injections as surgery?

Not massively surprised by this. He hasn't been anywhere near his best this year. Saw nothing to think this will be reversed. It's a crying shame. But considering his record at Wimbledon the last three years...

He is only #8 in the YTD race (and could drop outside that by the end of Wimbledon), and that with clay court season done.

He is clearly playing way below what he used to do. Even so, I did not expect Brown to win. But I have to admit Brown played much better than I expected him to - well enough to expose current shakier Rafa.

temporary21 wrote:

biugo wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Staggering. Rafa Nadal suffers another early exit at Wimbledon to a lowly ranked player.

Brown really played some great stuff to get the biggest win of his career and go through to the 3rd Round. For Rafa - well what can you say?

Well, Dustin Brown is now 2-0 in his H2H with Rafa, not bad for world #102 (and soon #80 minimum)

Further on rankings btw: Rafa could leave the Top 10 if:
- JWT makes it to the SF (meaning Murray doesn't)
or
- Simon, Goffin, Anderson, Dimitrov or Monfils makes it to the final (Isner would tie)
or
- we get a shocking winner within: Isner, Gasquet, Troicki, Mayer, Tomic, RBA, Seppi, Karlovic (5th set currently) or Andujar (who just beat Lukas Rosol btw)

That's a surprise. He's a hug chance of still being top ten.  With 6 months of free points... That's a bit of a bonus

A bigger surprise for you then:
At the race he's #8, and for the chasing pack, #9 Raonic included, the only way to overtake him is to win Wimby... (Raonic would be 25 behind with a Final)

I think both his #10 ATP and #8 race spots are safe - just!

biugo wrote:we've got: Ward, Pospisil, Troicki, Brown

and another equivalent section has Raonic, Dimitrov, Kyrgios, Gasquet. Life is not fair.

Ward could conceivably make it to the QF out of here.

Heh, then hes still doing better than we all think! Hes ok still if he can make a berdych sort of hc form
I thought he might exit early too, but the eternal carrot of Nadal vs Murray at Wimby again gave me hope. I mean injections, platelet replacement, and loads of knee problems. Its not a huge leap to think by 2013, he probably wouldnt get any better, but he still had it, moreover despite a pretty bad season hes still hanging around

Dolgo Karlovic in the 5th set.

I wonder if we should be surprised - if we are - by Rafa's exit. He has been blown away, at Wimbledon and elsewhere, by big hitters and by s and v even when he was in good form.
  He's not been in anything like good form this year and so an upset was very much on the cards. What I didn't realise is that it was the fourth Wimbledon running Rafa has lost to a player OUTSIDE THE TOP 100.
  Take Rafa's time away on a fast court and he can look very ordinary. What constantly surprises me in these defeats is his return game. OK, Brown and Rosol and Krygios before him served bullets in Rafa's SW19 defeats. But you would think that the others in the big four would have made far more returns and somehow found a way to break serve.
  I'm certainly giving up predictions. I thought Rafa would win the French and go deep here at Wimbledon !

Oh god its 6-5 on serve in the fifth between karlo and the dog. This could go on Forever. 2 Deuces ... in the WHOLE match

summerblues wrote:

biugo wrote:we've got: Ward, Pospisil, Troicki, Brown

and another equivalent section has Raonic, Dimitrov, Kyrgios, Gasquet.  Life is not fair.

Ward could conceivably make it to the QF out of here.

Would earth shatter in London with an all British QF at Wimby?
Probably Brown would be better for Ward, than Troicki

An all british QF would be judgement day. Someone needs to go back in time and stop it!

Johnyjeep wrote:

temporary21 wrote:I wonder how much people know about knee surgery, anyway people root for him because of all he's done, which can't ever be taken away. Soo it's brown v  someone and ward v posposil in that eighth now right?

Plenty. Are you classing injections as surgery?

Not massively surprised by this. He hasn't been anywhere near his best this year. Saw nothing to think this will be reversed. It's a crying shame. But considering his record at Wimbledon the last three years...

This should put to rest the excuses from the last few years that the Wimbledon losses were due to him not having time to adjust to grass, not enough grass match play, worn out from the French title run...    He said this year his knees felt great and he didn't have issues bending for the low bounce and volley's...       I don't know why or how- but 4 years of early round losses have to be seen now as Nadal just no longer being a very good grass court player. Can't take the titles from him and the amazing 2008 match/win... but he's no longer a factor at this Major.

Was really hoping to see Federer/Nadal on grass this year.

Yeah, its either some sort of complex, or it might have a lot to do with the serve. Its rubbish on grass, he got 72% of them in today and never looked good under it.

Its 8-7 karlo-dog btw. Whats the chances this will finish tonight?

temporary21 wrote:An all british QF would be judgement day. Someone needs to go back in time and stop it!

About going back in time to stop, you'd need to go well back in time!

Last time it happened was 1923, 1922, 1919 (and probably every edition until 1913)

temporary21 wrote:Its 8-7 karlo-dog btw. Whats the chances this will finish tonight?

They still have about an hour of light left?

Dr Ivo need to do better on the ace count though "only" 48 now, his records in bo5 are 48, 51, 55, 78

I agree that Rafa is not at his peak; no one is forever.

It happened to Federer, it is happening to Rafa and, even though he is playing extremely well at the moment, it will happen to Djokovic at some point.

Like Bogbrush, I had no illusions about Federer when he won Wimbledon in 2012; heck I had my suspicions that the 2010 Australian Open win was simply a momentary respite from his irrevocable drop in form.

So Rafa's troubles now are no surprise.

What may help him if he is more aggressive on faster surfaces and look to shorten points where he can and to use different tools on the slower surfaces. He may need to reply on his serve more, as Roger has done.

Crafty veteran Dustin Brown is the toast of Germany tonight! Yes it's a declining Rafael Nadal, but for an enigma like Dustin it's a career defining victory.

To be honest, I'm not sure how much of this is "tennis" related. In the last four years, he's hardly been thrashed. Looking at his 2006-11 grass court golden age, he had a lot of similar matches early on, the difference being he found a way. The only year he didn't struggle in the early week was probably 2008, and that's probably because he was in the middle of one of the greatest runs in tennis history. He could have played on ice, and he'd have been nailing it. In the last four years though, he's maybe lost that little one percent. Against Darcis he lost in straights, but he was involved in two tiebreaks. You'd have backed him to win those. Against Kyrgios, again, he lost two tiebreakers. I think he was only broken once the whole match? Today, he was a break up in the first, and lost the third because he got broken double faulting twice from advantage. Seems gun shy to me.

I can agree with that, in any case I think Wimbys a write off for him now, we dont expect to see roger win the RG, Nadal is even more a write off here really.
Anyway, Dustin won and Rafas out to plot his points gaining in the hc's,

Toorrows order of play is tasty! Kygios Raonic, Dimitrov Gasquet, Wawrinka Verdasco! Cilic Isner!
Novak Tomic

Those are a bit of a treat for third round

Not looking good for Spaniards this Wimbledon.

If you look at the highest ranked players that went out so far, you get:

Nishikori (if that really counts)
Rafa
Lopez
Roberdo

Add to that Ferrer's withdrawal, and the highest ranked remaining Spaniard is Bautista Agut.  Nevertheless, Spanish tennis is deep enough that they still have three players in - also Verdasco and Andujar.

For Gods sake, the BBC get worse. All we've had is how Camilla whatserface got Andys sweaty band. FFS.

And now we get James Ward when Federer played and Rafa was the shock of the tournament. Running order should have been Rafa, Federer, Murray, mop-up.