Wales vs Ireland - Round 5

by maestegmafia Sun 10 Mar - 18:12

First topic message reminder :

SAT 16 MAR 2019
GUINNESS SIX NATIONS
Kick Off 14:45
Principality Stadium

Teams TBA Thursday the 14th March

Referee Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant 1 Ben O'Keeffe (New Zelaand)
Assistant 2 Karl Dickson (England)
TMO Marius Jonker (South Africa)

Wales:

L Williams (Saracens); North (Ospreys), J Davies (Scarlets), Parkes (Scarlets), Adams (Worcester); Anscombe (Cardiff Blues), G Davies (Scarlets); R Evans (Scarlets), Owens (Scarlets), Francis (Exeter Chiefs), Beard (Ospreys), AW Jones (Ospreys, capt), Navidi (Cardiff Blues), Tipuric (Ospreys), Moriarty (Dragons).

Replacements: Dee (Dragons), Smith (Ospreys), D Lewis (Cardiff Blues), Ball (Scarlets), Wainwright (Dragons), A Davies (Ospreys), Biggar (Northampton), Watkin (Ospreys).

Ireland:

Kearney; Earls, Ringrose, Aki, Stockdale; Sexton, Murray; Healy, Best (capt), Furlong, Beirne, Ryan, O'Mahony, O'Brien, Stander.

Replacements: Scannell, Kilcoyne, Porter, Roux, Conan, Marmion, Carty, Larmour.

by Guest Tue 12 Mar - 15:57

Agree that Wales are dismissed in some countries/by some players as a genuine RWC threat.

A few legitimate reasons and few slightly less...analytical reasons, being that it is Wales, and what people tend to think that means.

by **LondonTiger** Tue 12 Mar - 16:00

miaow wrote:Agree that Wales are dismissed in some countries/by some players as a genuine RWC threat.

A few legitimate reasons and few slightly less...analytical reasons, being that it is Wales, and what people tend to think that means.

TBH in some countries everyone else is dismissed as an RWC threat.

by Guest Tue 12 Mar - 16:01

Two things from this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/47538515

1. No YOU'RE favourites...

2. I think Liam Williams is out. Didn't look like a stinger on the day and doesn't sound like a stinger now. Purely conjecture but...

by Guest Tue 12 Mar - 16:03

LondonTiger wrote:
miaow wrote:Agree that Wales are dismissed in some countries/by some players as a genuine RWC threat.

A few legitimate reasons and few slightly less...analytical reasons, being that it is Wales, and what people tend to think that means.

TBH in some countries everyone else is dismissed as an RWC threat.

True. I didn't phrase that well. As a RWC threat but also as being on Eng and Ire's level when at they hit their very best. Or being able to be 'better'. Again, good reasons for that due to RWC record and SH losing record, but it's strange when it comes from outside SANZAR and it's NH arrogance/dismissiveness. Mostly this is a media/fan thing but it has been pro coaches and players in the past. For Ireland, I think it's that the regions have been also-rans to the provinces; for England...well...

No doubt people stick the boot in because of Gatland as well. The bias/blindness that exists towards him is crazy.

by **rodders** Tue 12 Mar - 16:04

Ha nice try from McBride and Gats to reduce the pressure on the Welsh players by singing Irish praises. They must be feeling the heat... Wink

I don't think anyone in the Ireland camp will be taking notice.

by **LondonTiger** Tue 12 Mar - 16:12

In the past Gats has been just as gobby as Jones which will have upset some I guess. Most fans tend to be critical of neighbours coaches for being gobby but defend their own. People in all countries take any criticism of their side as a personal attack and thus strike back. We see it on these boards all the time.

England, Ireland and Wales or all at a very similar level in the 2018/19 season.

Personally I feel Ireland have the best team of the 3 but they have not hit top form in the 6Ns. In this WC cycle England and Wales have had a series of pretty tight matches in 6Ns and friendlies. There is not much between the two teams and while England are up on the recent head to head games, on any day the team that plays closer to their potential will win.

by Collapse2005 Tue 12 Mar - 16:19

I dont think anyone would describe Schmidt as gobby?

He is a lovely fellow

by Collapse2005 Tue 12 Mar - 16:20

Expected team:
15 Kearney (if Kearney doesn't fully recover Larmour)
14 Stockdale
13 Ringrose
12 Aki
11 Earls
10 Sexton
9 Murray
8 Stander
7 Sean O Brien (POM could cover 7 with Conan at 8 or less likely Leavy or VdF at 7 for SOB)
6 O'Mahony
5 Ryan
4 Henderson
3 Furlong
2 Best
1 Healy

Anyone see any other surprises? I don't expect Beirne to start but you never know.

by mikey_dragon Tue 12 Mar - 16:34

Wow Schmidt would actually consider not having an open-side against Wales? And his first choice out of all the options is SOB? I think he's making a serious error.

by Collapse2005 Tue 12 Mar - 16:40

mikey_dragon wrote:Wow Schmidt would actually consider not having an open-side against Wales? And his first choice out of all the options is SOB? I think he's making a serious error.

Leavy is just back from injury and VdF is injured and unlikely to be fit in time. That leaves SOB, Jordi Murphy or POM to cover 7.

POM isn't a 7 but did ok there v France for the 2nd half. SOB and Murphy wouldn't let you down and would be fine. I think we have decent options to be honest. My preference would be Leavy but looks unlikely.

by mikey_dragon Tue 12 Mar - 16:45

It has to be Murphy then. SOB didn't look good (can't remember if it was Scotland or Italy now), seemed way off the pace.

by Collapse2005 Tue 12 Mar - 16:52

Am I right in saying that if Wales win a grand slam Gatland will become the only coach ever to win 3 grand slams. Mighty achievement.

by Collapse2005 Tue 12 Mar - 16:54

mikey_dragon wrote:It has to be Murphy then. SOB didn't look good (can't remember if it was Scotland or Italy now), seemed way off the pace.

He played against England as a sub and Scotland as a starter and I agree he didn't look good but he is still a good player.

by Guest Tue 12 Mar - 17:03

rodders wrote:Ha nice try from McBride and Gats to reduce the pressure on the Welsh players by singing Irish praises. They must be feeling the heat...

I don't think anyone in the Ireland camp will be taking notice.

It’s a quadruple bluff, Rodders! They’re taking the heat off Ireland, putting it back on, taking it off again, and putting it right back on! Superb tactics from the Welsh! clap

by Collapse2005 Tue 12 Mar - 17:15

The Oracle wrote:
rodders wrote:Ha nice try from McBride and Gats to reduce the pressure on the Welsh players by singing Irish praises. They must be feeling the heat...

I don't think anyone in the Ireland camp will be taking notice.

It’s a quadruple bluff, Rodders! They’re taking the heat off Ireland, putting it back on, taking it off again, and putting it right back on! Superb tactics from the Welsh!

How will we cope, imagine the pressure if they close the roof.

by Guest Tue 12 Mar - 17:15

The Oracle wrote:
rodders wrote:Ha nice try from McBride and Gats to reduce the pressure on the Welsh players by singing Irish praises. They must be feeling the heat...

I don't think anyone in the Ireland camp will be taking notice.

It’s a quadruple bluff, Rodders! They’re taking the heat off Ireland, putting it back on, taking it off again, and putting it right back on! Superb tactics from the Welsh!

"Gone...back...gone...back..."

by robbo277 Tue 12 Mar - 18:31

Collapse2005 wrote:Am I right in saying that if Wales win a grand slam Gatland will become the only coach ever to win 3 grand slams. Mighty achievement.

Can't find any instances of people winning more than 2. I've targeted where a team has won 3 slams within 10 years to see if there were any.

Skrela won back-to-back slams in 97 and 98, Laporte won 2 in 3 years in 02 and 04 but wasn't in place when Lievermont won it in 2010.

Cooke won back-to-back slams for England in 91 and 92 but wasn't in place when Rowell won a Slam in 1995.

France won 3 Slams in the 70s and 80s, with Desclaux picking up 1 and Fouroux picking up 2.

Wales 3 70s Slams were split between Rowlands (1) and Dawes (2).

The head coach role has only been in place since the 60s. Unsure who was in charge when England won 4 slams in the 1920s or when Wales won 3 pre-WW1, but it looks plausible that Gatland could become the first.

by yappysnap Tue 12 Mar - 18:44

maestegmafia wrote:
rodders wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:
rodders wrote:Wales for me are definitely favorites, even at a neutral venue this one is 50:50 game. Ireland are defending champions and ranked higher but Wales have a very good recent record against Ireland and both teams are pretty evenly matched.

When you factor in that Wales are at home, with GS slam to play for plus Ireland's 6 day turn around then Wales are definitely favourites.

That said I'm actually quite confident from an Ireland perspective. I think we have turned a corner against France and have been steadily building after a poor start to the tournament. Wales have been grinding out victories but the England game aside haven't really played that well.

All winning runs have to come to an end, whether Wales can hang on for one more game we will have to see.

I expect a classic here and probably a one score game that will go down to the wire.

Ireland have improved dramatically every game this tournament as Sexton and Murray’s fitness improved.

Larmour looks a far more comfortable cover if Kearney is out.

Yes, Sexton definitely looked a lot better against France. Murray is still not 100%.

Against Wales though we won't have anything like the time on the ball we had against France. Wales line will be up fast and aggressive and Sexton will be in for a tough time. In the air we will be challenged so tactically Wales have areas were they can target and gain an edge.

For us I think the set piece and line out are were we can potentially trouble Wales. It is an interesting clash though because we like to retain the ball and go through phases but Wales like to play without the ball and defend.

Gats is probably the one coach who has got the tactically edge over Schmidt, so Ireland need to have something different up their sleeves.

The pressure is on Wales but I think for Ireland a 2nd place finish and 4 wins would actually be viewed as a reasonably successful tournament as we've managed to use a lot of different players over the course of the tournament and dig ourselves out of a rough patch. It's also an opportunity to show we've adapted from the England game as Wales will target the same areas.

A loss wouldn't be a disaster but a win would be a big box tick for the RWC.

For Wales there is a lot more to loose, they have one hand on the GS but could drop to 3rd with a loss. They have the big game players to deal with the pressure but still the realization that they don't have the cushion of winning the title on points as a consultation could have an effect.

After reading a number of posts on hear you would think wales should go into this happy with third, they are not a respected or fancied team. They are not considered realistic RWC contenders, Ireland and England are. Maybe third place is where they deserve to be. We are constantly reminded how unspectacular wales are after every victory.

I know they have what it takes to win this. But we are definitely constantly being written off on this board and in the press.

Most pundits, outside of wales but there are a few in, still consider England the favourites for the championship win. Despite that outcome being reliant on the result in Cardiff.

Wait a second.

You were just talking down Wales chances until I, an Englishman talked them up!

You are those 'most people'.

by Collapse2005 Tue 12 Mar - 22:31

robbo277 wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:Am I right in saying that if Wales win a grand slam Gatland will become the only coach ever to win 3 grand slams. Mighty achievement.

Can't find any instances of people winning more than 2. I've targeted where a team has won 3 slams within 10 years to see if there were any.

Skrela won back-to-back slams in 97 and 98, Laporte won 2 in 3 years in 02 and 04 but wasn't in place when Lievermont won it in 2010.

Cooke won back-to-back slams for England in 91 and 92 but wasn't in place when Rowell won a Slam in 1995.

France won 3 Slams in the 70s and 80s, with Desclaux picking up 1 and Fouroux picking up 2.

Wales 3 70s Slams were split between Rowlands (1) and Dawes (2).

The head coach role has only been in place since the 60s. Unsure who was in charge when England won 4 slams in the 1920s or when Wales won 3 pre-WW1, but it looks plausible that Gatland could become the first.

In which case he may just be the GOAT

by Taylorman Wed 13 Mar - 0:02

Henry won three grandslam tours in 05,08,10. Our version is the four home unions. A tougher assignment, as theyre all away... a long way away.
Only one of the twelve matches across the three was remotely loseable scorewise.
Though Henry isnt the 6N GOAT, simply THE GOAT. Whistle

by Guest Wed 13 Mar - 0:15

Taylorman, are you from New Zealand?

by Taylorman Wed 13 Mar - 1:03

Does the location Wellington, NZ serve as a hint? thumbsup

by Collapse2005 Wed 13 Mar - 7:57

Taylorman wrote:Henry won three grandslam tours in 05,08,10. Our version is the four home unions. A tougher assignment, as theyre all away... a long way away.
Only one of the twelve matches across the three was remotely loseable scorewise.
Though Henry isnt the 6N GOAT, simply THE GOAT.

Fake news

by **LondonTiger** Wed 13 Mar - 9:11

Taylorman wrote:Does the location Wellington, NZ serve as a hint?

So you say. I still suspect that 60% of posters on here are actually Russian NetBots.

by SecretFly Wed 13 Mar - 10:02

That low, eh?

by **rodders** Wed 13 Mar - 10:02

Collapse2005 wrote:Expected team:
15 Kearney (if Kearney doesn't fully recover Larmour)
14 Stockdale
13 Ringrose
12 Aki
11 Earls
10 Sexton
9 Murray
8 Stander
7 Sean O Brien (POM could cover 7 with Conan at 8 or less likely Leavy or VdF at 7 for SOB)
6 O'Mahony
5 Ryan
4 Henderson
3 Furlong
2 Best
1 Healy

Anyone see any other surprises? I don't expect Beirne to start but you never know.

I do have a feeling Beirne may start. I think the talk about Leavy is a bit of smokescreen though, if fit he does offer more than SOB but can't see them taking the risk but you never know.

I do expect changes, as much as they want to win I think Joe has one eye on the RWC and will want to look at some players who haven't featured.

by Collapse2005 Wed 13 Mar - 10:04

Beirne for Henderson? Who would call the lineout, Ryan?

by maestegmafia Wed 13 Mar - 10:04

rodders wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:Expected team:
15 Kearney (if Kearney doesn't fully recover Larmour)
14 Stockdale
13 Ringrose
12 Aki
11 Earls
10 Sexton
9 Murray
8 Stander
7 Sean O Brien (POM could cover 7 with Conan at 8 or less likely Leavy or VdF at 7 for SOB)
6 O'Mahony
5 Ryan
4 Henderson
3 Furlong
2 Best
1 Healy

Anyone see any other surprises? I don't expect Beirne to start but you never know.

I do have a feeling Beirne may start. I think the talk about Leavy is a bit of smokescreen though, if fit he does offer more than SOB but can't see them taking the risk but you never know.

I do expect changes, as much as they want to win I think Joe has one eye on the RWC and will want to look at some players who haven't featured.

Teams out tomorrow?

by Collapse2005 Wed 13 Mar - 10:07

Actually Rodders I think you are right there is talk of Henderson having an injury. Beirne does look set for his six nations debut.

by maestegmafia Wed 13 Mar - 10:09

Collapse2005 wrote:Actually Rodders I think you are right there is talk of Henderson having an injury. Beirne does look set for his six nations debut.

The welsh players have voted players player a few seasons ago. He has a huge amount of respect in Wales as he was an immensely important part of the Scarlets team.

by **rodders** Wed 13 Mar - 10:10

Collapse2005 wrote:Actually Rodders I think you are right there is talk of Henderson having an injury. Beirne does look set for his six nations debut.

Don't believe a word of it, I'd say they've been planning to pick Beirne for this all along Wink

by Collapse2005 Wed 13 Mar - 10:14

Yeah probably

by **rodders** Wed 13 Mar - 10:15

was surprised they left Cronin out though...

by SecretFly Wed 13 Mar - 10:16

Hmmm.... is the Beirne show now becoming the new Zebo show? Will there be social media warfare if Ireland lose to Wales and Joe refused to pick Beirne.
And the only way I see Henderson missing this one is if he is indeed injured. I don't think it's in Joe's nature to chop and change too much when he's found a selection that seems to have clicked....a bit. Why spoil a rhythm away to Wales?

by **rodders** Wed 13 Mar - 10:21

Fly I suspect they will be looking at the RWC where they have a short turn around between Scotland and Japan.

It wouldn't be unlike Joe to have certain players penciled for Wales in advance of the French game.

by SecretFly Wed 13 Mar - 10:27

Maybe rodders. But I also think he was looking for a package that finally worked in this championship - and every different team that went out there were told to perform. So maybe WC thinking will get in the way - but usually Joe rewards players that have done a Job.
Ireland were by no means top flight in that French game but Joe seemed to like the bits he saw.
Like I've said before. We have Wales again twice and I don't think they'll be soft games. Plenty of opportunity for the current fringe to be picked and then to prove a point.

by SecretFly Wed 13 Mar - 10:37

Btw _ I'd say Joe is going to allow the roof to be closed....coz he is nice..... too nice sometimes.
Anyway, if it is closed, that'll be even a bigger task for his boys. But if they come through it, what a much needed booster in confidence that will be after that horror show first day

by **rodders** Wed 13 Mar - 10:59

Fly Joe is a smart cookie.

I'm beginning to think we threw the England game so we could experiment more with selection.

by Collapse2005 Wed 13 Mar - 11:10

rodders wrote:Fly Joe is a smart cookie.

I'm beginning to think we threw the England game so we could experiment more with selection.

That sounds like something Taylorman would say.

by SecretFly Wed 13 Mar - 12:21

We may not have 100% thrown the game but between Schmidt, Farrell and the rest of the coaches, I'll bet they knew they weren't going to win it...... which of course is probably 100% the same thing!
I do feel Joe is ultra relaxed this time. Seems a lot of pressure has been raised off his shoulders - perhaps that decision to call it a day and happy about it. But Ireland are in a very peculiar mood because of it. They seem happy enough, they have an effectiveness that few other teams can match at such low intensity levels ( we really shouldn't be still in the race but are)... and Joe isn't exactly bigging up Wales, like he'd have been doing in the past.
I do think Grand Slam defence was off the table this year. Yes, there was to be more fooling around with selections...and I think, judging by body language , that the 6N have actually gone better than Joe expected, however bizarre that might sound. He seems pleasantly surprised.

by RugbyFan100 Wed 13 Mar - 13:02

Collapse2005 wrote:Am I right in saying that if Wales win a grand slam Gatland will become the only coach ever to win 3 grand slams. Mighty achievement.

Yes. He will have the same number of Grand Slams as Ireland have won in their entire history.

by SecretFly Wed 13 Mar - 13:11

That's telling us! Smile

by carpet baboon Wed 13 Mar - 13:46

Being reported that hendo is out injured so Bernie will start along side Ryan on Saturday

by Guest Wed 13 Mar - 14:04

Knew it. Big Beirne to break West Walian hearts for the second time in 12 months...

by carpet baboon Wed 13 Mar - 14:07

miaow wrote:Knew it. Big Beirne to break West Walian hearts for the second time in 12 months...

I do hope so, but would feel a twinge of regret knowing were handing the title to England, unless Scotland can pull a performance of a lifetime out of the bag

by SecretFly Wed 13 Mar - 14:14

Well, his fans have bigged him up so Big Beirne better put in a big performance or there'll be a big backlash and he'll have a big disappointment when not getting on a big plane to a big event later in the year! I'm warning you, Big Beirne. If this is your moment - this is your moment!!!!!!!

But no pressure Wink

by Guest Wed 13 Mar - 14:29

Honestly, I think Beirne is the perfect man to bring off the bench for Ireland in the RWC. Whether at 19 or 20, though...that's the tough question.

by Collapse2005 Wed 13 Mar - 15:05

RugbyFan100 wrote:
Collapse2005 wrote:Am I right in saying that if Wales win a grand slam Gatland will become the only coach ever to win 3 grand slams. Mighty achievement.

Yes. He will have the same number of Grand Slams as Ireland have won in their entire history.

Thanks for that. We might have to just spoil the party then.

by mikey_dragon Wed 13 Mar - 18:57

It's a Grand Slam year for Wales Wink

.

by Taylorman Wed 13 Mar - 19:20

LondonTiger wrote:
Taylorman wrote:Does the location Wellington, NZ serve as a hint?

So you say. I still suspect that 60% of posters on here are actually Russian NetBots.

Yep, explains a lot

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