Japan 2019 - Pool A Ireland Japan Russia Samoa Scotland

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Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Tries	PF	PA	+/-	BP	Points
Japan	3	3	0	0	9	87	41	+46	2	14
Ireland	3	2	0	1	11	74	22	+52	3	11
Scotland	3	2	0	1	13	98	27	71	2	10
Samoa	3	1	0	2	7	53	81	-28	1	5
Russia	3	0	0	3	1	19	125	-106	0	0

Japan 30-10 Russia              
Ireland 27-3 Scotland  
Russia 9-34 Samoa                        
Japan 19-12 Ireland                          
Scotland 34-0 Samoa
Ireland 35-0 Russia
Japan 38-19 Samoa
Scotland 61-0 Russia  

                                       
                     
12 October 2019         Ireland v Samoa                         Fukuoka Hakatanomori Stadium, Fukuoka
13 October 2019         Japan v Scotland                         International Stadium Yokohama, Yokohama


Two games left. If Ireland get a TBP win on Saturday they qualify for the quarter finals irrespective of the result on Sunday. Any other result and they need to wait and see what happens between Japan and Scotland.
Any win for Japan and they will top the group (in fact a draw or losing with two bonus points will guarantee the same)
Most interesting scenario is if Ireland win without a bonus point - opening up a chance for Scotland to top the group if all 3 teams end up on 15pts and Scotland are able to keep their points difference ahead of Ireland.

miaow wrote:With all respect to Van der Flier he's probably not in the top 10 number 7s in world rugby.

Give him a bit more time. I like the cut of him. New coach coming. New assistant coaches coming. Whilst Joe has been great for Irish rugby, regardless of what happens now in the WC, and the fat lady hasn't sung yet on that score... the Irish players have been slaves to a very rigid system, that kisses them for being more prudent and cautious and lashes them for being more cavalier and individualistic.
But a new coach is on the horizon - lying low so far as assistant. Irish players have as much capacity to play a much looser, more daring brand of rugby as Welsh or Scottish players. But you have to be coached/encouraged to play it.

That's all fair, Fly, but I'd still not consider him (or Stander) one of the world's top 3 or 4 in their positions. Neither probably makes the top 10.

Ireland have so few players that would make the top 10 they really should be considered a tier 2 nation. It's amazing what Joe has done with such poor resources.

Come to think of it Gatland must be a really poor judge of players to make POM a Lions captain - such a strange decision maybe Rob Howley was involved in that one?

Japan - played 2 - 9 points
Ireland - played 2 - 6 points
Samoa - played 1 - 5 points
Scotland - played 1 - 0 points
Russia - played 2 - 0 points

Who needs what?

Russia - a miracle. They can get to 10 points if they beat Scotland and Ireland with try bonus points. If Samoa beat Ireland, Scotland beat Samoa and Japan beat Samoa there 10 points may be enough. May.

Scotland - they have 3 games left and realistically will have to win all 3, as they can't impact Ireland's results. They'll need the bonus point against Russia to match Japan. A bonus point against Samoa would also be very handy. If they win those two they're be on 9 or 10 and then they'll go into the Japan game knowing their bonus point equation, but you cant seem them qualifying without winning that one.

Samoa - they could all but eliminate Scotland if they can cause another upset, but having played a few days ago this may prove too much. A win against Scotland would set them up with a shootout against Japan. A loss against Scotland and they'll need wins against Japan and Ireland.

Ireland - 10 points. 10 points will get them into 16 and guarantee qualification if Scotland beat Samoa. If Samoa beat Scotland there is a scenario that would see Ireland miss out on 16 points, but it's quite convoluted.

Japan - 2 wins would do. 1 win may do, especially if they get the bonus points, but also if others take wins off each other.

The Scotland vs Samoa game therefore very much takes on an elimination game feel. The loser will really struggle to make it out. Permutations will become easier after that, but Pool A is definitely the most open.

The Great Aukster wrote:Come to think of it Gatland must be a really poor judge of players to make POM a Lions captain - such a strange decision maybe Rob Howley was involved in that one?

You sound upset. Don't take it personally.

Well we'll certainly get a better perspective of both teams (Scotland and Samoa)

We will see if Scotland has settled down and are prepared to get back in the saddle.  Seeing how Ireland went against Japan will probably have boosted their hopes again (Ireland still vulnerable to a turn over) but also increased their concerns (they're not meeting us again in the pools but they are meeting Japan).

Samoa - didn't see their game against Russia.  But if they can beat Scotland, then Ireland will certainly be anxious to study the means they used to do so.

I think Scotland will come good and get their chances back on track.  But anything is possible obviously in a competition that has already thrown up the supposed 'upsets'.

The luck of the Irish May be with Scotland as Ireland vs Russia is apparently at risk of being hit by a typhoon which could result in the game being called off.

If, and it’s a big if, Scotland beat Samoa tomorrow, and Russia vs Ireland is declared a draw, Ireland could be is soapy bubbles.

It’s all a big if though. Who would have thought it after Ireland’s demolition of Scotland a week ago.

The Great Aukster wrote:Come to think of it Gatland must be a really poor judge of players to make POM a Lions captain - such a strange decision maybe Rob Howley was involved in that one?

Maybe if our esteemed leader has POM on the pitch he might not have screwed up his missed the lineout throw. #ordinarywithoutPOM or #whereis8ftToner. Or maybe just #pastit

tigertattie wrote:The luck of the Irish May be with Scotland as Ireland vs Russia is apparently at risk of being hit by a typhoon which could result in the game being called off.

If, and it’s a big if, Scotland beat Samoa tomorrow, and Russia vs Ireland is declared a draw , Ireland could be is soapy bubbles.

It’s all a big if though. Who would have thought it after Ireland’s demolition of Scotland a week ago.

Think you're wrong there, Tattie.  The actual World Rugby wording states that if any called off game includes Ireland, the opponent shall be deemed bonus point winner.

Nobody likes us at World Rugby no more.  They didn't want us to win against Japan so turned up the heating to max.  They didn't like us being No 1 so gave it back to New Zealand in the very week we beat Scotland ( what a bummer).  And of course they didn't want us hosting a World Cup so blackmailed our Celtic brothers to stab us in de back.
Ireland - the New England.

The Great Aukster wrote:Come to think of it Gatland must be a really poor judge of players to make POM a Lions captain - such a strange decision maybe Rob Howley was involved in that one?

Just to add. There was another corkman who played in the back row who was captain of Ireland. Very well regarded down here. James McCarthy. Was the captain when the last Irish international was played in Belfast in 1954. Another great cork man. Just like POM

This should be a game that Scotland should win quite east. But given how they played against Ireland???? well Samoa might cause a second upset of the tournament.

majesticimperialman wrote:This should be a game that Scotland should win quite east. But given how they played against Ireland???? well Samoa might cause a second upset of the tournament.

If Samoa win I don’t think it could be classed as an upset!!!

majesticimperialman wrote:This should be a game that Scotland should win quite east.

Quite!

But I prefer The Orient myself. Sexier sounding.

LeinsterFan4life wrote:

Exiledinborders wrote:

eirebilly wrote:Aukster, the tactics were working until Japan adjusted and countered the Irish tactics. Ireland were knackered as instead of adjusting the game plan they simply tried to force plan A harder and it was not working as Japan were countering it easily.

Japan were very good but Ireland were again very predictable. Japan adjusted to Irelands tactics, countered them and had Ireland in their pockets for a good 50mins of the game so much so that it appeared that Ireland were sucked into Japans game plan.

I guess, in a way, they were in the end du to Japans counter tactics.

Very good summary.

Ireland are generally excellent at playing their system but are incapable of changing it when required. Without Sexton they even more predictable than normal.

All this talk about game plans, boring rugby etc etc is nonsense. Ireland has shown time and time again since Schmidt has taken over that they can compete and beat the best. However this is the weakest Irish side I've seen in years with aging players and players woefully off form. Our backrow alone despresses me every time I see an Ireland team named and how quickly we have gone from having one of the best in world rugby with seemingly endless depth there to one of the least intimidating back row units in world rugby amazes me.

L4L,

There clearly is a game plan by Schmidt and the team are trained to it so much that it appears that they cannot divert if things are not quite working. Its not just Schmidt that has proven Ireland can match it with the best, most coaches before him have done so as well. The common ground is that neither Schmidt nor his predecessors have managed to get Ireland to be consistent enough.


The back row is not weak, I feel it is unbalanced currently due to individual player strengths. The loss of Conan and Leavy (SOB in that as well) are proving to be quite substantial.

Fitness, fitness, fitness, fitness.  It's an everlasting story that never sees a satisfactory solution.  International grade fitness.  We have a problem with it, and it's what comes back to haunt us in the consistency department and the total mental breakdown responses to adversity when it appears.

Most commentators (paid and on social media) say we have it (fitness) in buckets.  Yet why should a fully professional, scientifically prepared, Tier 1 Nation that was recently as high as Number 1 in the rankings, look so drained, sad, steamed up and incapable of living with the pace of the Japanese in only the second game in to a challenging competition?  
Why should the Scots be shocked that their initial plan to run us off our feet - one they'd been planning a long time - didn't work?  That it didn't work was down to Ireland's clinical preparation for them (for Which they seem to have reserved a lot of energy through the year)
BUT, the point is the Scots would have regarded us initially as a side that can't live with pace in the game.  And most of them play in our own League!
And finally, why would O'Brien (Irish International) complain at the level of training required by Gatland for the Lions?  That's the level of training Gatland requires for his Welsh side.  Too much?  Wales can be beaten but seldom ever look gassed and they play to a consistent high tempo.

Every team that gets us, gets us on tempo, keeping the ball alive, spreading us rapidly right and left and then finding the heavy legged gaps or tackle failures (the mental exhaustion meltdowns)
Japan may gas themselves out in the pools.  They may be deflated for Scotland even.  But who is betting on it right now?  They beat us in every sector.  Their energy served every need, and not just the fast loose offloading game, but the resolute defence, the three pod hits, the aggression in mauls, scrums etc.  Their fitness was multitask fitness - high speed physicality, high speed evasion.
We can function hot in one or two games in a competition sequence, but we need cruise tempo games to recharge the batteries.  Moreso than other top Tier1 sides.  Had the next game after Scotland been Russia, we might have been okay for Japan on Thursday.  But we find it hard to maintain consistency because fatigue lasts longer for us.  We fatigue quicker and get back the energy needed for full force slower.

You might blame our gamelan.  It's a tough one to service.  All commentators acknowledge that.  Malcolm O'Kelly was animated recently on Off The Ball.  Couldn't figure why we decide not to take pressure off forwards by playing more expansively and using offloads wisely to find the space.  And that's an ex forward speaking.  He really was frustrated at the energy usage.  And given it's our gameplan to be ultra physical in contact and score many tries from it...that's the gameplan that has to be practiced in training.  More energy sapping phase play practice and forward drilled try scoring.

I think we planned for a big game with Scotland and then to work back slowly to physical readiness for a QF against SA or NZ.  I don't think we 'expected' a win against Japan, but I do think their physicality was unexpected.  Schmidt felt the forwards had still enough in the tank after Scotland to repel Japan and in a sense bully them off the ball.  But that consistenty-recharge fitness wasn't there to cope with two Big games in a row.

Despite all that, I still think we're a bloody good team...great players.  For all their splendour, the Japanese only got one try.  We worked damn hard to keep them low.  But the players are being let down by our training methods I feel and have felt for a long time.  We need different versions of achieving and maintaining supreme fitness behind the scenes.  The players need more help to get that consistency of performance intensity.  The job for the new head coach at this stage.

Well what to say.... firstly how good were Japan, I think they will win the group and give the Boks a good run in the QF.

From an Ireland perspective, I think we should be relieved with the losing bonus and 6 points over 2 games puts us in control of qualification, albeit in the tougher side of the draw.

There are some mitigating factors with the 6 day turn around, humidity and a lot of the decisions going against us but we should have expected all that.

Our pack looked out on their feet after 20 min, so fitness is a worry, maybe the bin liner approach didn't work so well after all.

I agree with Sexton though, in the last 2 RWCs we dominated the group and then fell short in the QF. If we can bounce back against Russia we have time to turn things around for the probably a huge game against NZ.

Very hard to keep to a game plan when you can't get hold of the ball. Japan played with tremendous tempo. Not always a lot of 'go forward' but they kept hold of the ball and also made the ball do the work. Lot less energy involved in those lovely long passes than dragging tired bodies from one side of the pitch to the other. Their handling was superb in very difficult conditions.

There are two types of fitness, actual fitness and mental fitness. After 20mins, Ireland were still in control but Japan had changed their tactics to counter Ireland. With no other plan in place, Ireland just started to play the original game plan harder and without any success, became mentally drained which, in turn, drained them physically.

It was an outstanding performance from Japan who had obviously analysed many games where Ireland had been out thought and implemented that.

I still think Gatland was involved somehow

Yet another ridiculous pre-game dance!

They did sound more in tune with each other though!

Beautiful just beautiful.

7

TightHEAD wrote:Yet another ridiculous pre-game dance!

You are just sore that they have never allowed morris dancing. Still we are not far off having enough players of PI heritage to do our own haka.

Thinking about it an England take on the haka would have to include gestures indicating pouring of tea and queuing.

Yet another dodgy French Ref!

Kit clash?

Did neither want to give up their blue tops?

rodders wrote:
I agree with Sexton though, in the last 2 RWCs we dominated the group and then fell short in the QF. If we can bounce back against Russia we have time to turn things around for the probably a huge game against NZ.

Oh I agree that there seems to be a dark intent with Ireland... heavily informed by previous experiences.  I don't think the Japanese victory will wobble their conviction at all.  Think they'll have already slotted it away.  Don't think they care which side the get in a QF - IF we get there.
Both SA and NZ bring their own unique levels of threat anyway.  Much of a muchness.  It would be as easy to lose to SA as the ABs, so why worry about either.
There seems to be a very intense mood in camp but a positive one.  Even Schmidt - some observers seem to see him all on edge, I instead see him the most relaxed I've probably ever seen him in the Irish job.  And not a 'don't care anymore' relaxed.  He knows his players will drive on.  He appears quietly confident that his players are in the right mood - and at this point I'm sure he can assess those rumblings.  

But our endurance levels at sustaining momentum and tempo in a punishing gameplan - it's still the big question mark this time, just as it proved to be four years ago.

Didn't realise Finn Russell made the trip to Japan!

How could the advantage be over when the Ref never signalled one?

eirebilly wrote:There are two types of fitness, actual fitness and mental fitness.

Three types. Knackered fitness. That's the red faced variety we suffered from .

TightHEAD wrote:Didn't realise Finn Russell made the trip to Japan!

More important question? Where are New Zealand? Did they go home to put out the bins before their next game?

Jeepers, its very hot and muggy here in Osaka

Collapse2005 wrote:Jeepers, its very hot and muggy here in Osaka

Nagoya hit 35 degrees today. The typhoon later this week will lower temperatures and bring some rain.

Having seen all teams play 2 games in the group with a few Jekyll & Hyde performances in there do you think there'll be any more surprises? I expect Japan, Ireland & now Scotland to get bonus point wins against Samoa/Russia which leaves it a straight shootout between the 3.
Can/will Scotland beat Japan? Last game of the pool & both will know exactly what they have to do. Pre WC this was always going to be a/the decider. Ireland thought it would be for 2nd & 3rd spot though.
That aside how impressive were Japan. If they can keep up that energy for the tournament they can trouble anybody.
I believe the IRFU & their sponsors are travelling out for the Samoa game & will stay until Ireland gets knocked out. Could be a short trip with egg on their faces. Lets hope not.

Ninjarugby wrote:Having seen all teams play 2 games in the group with a few Jekyll & Hyde performances in there do you think there'll be any more surprises? I expect Japan, Ireland & now Scotland to get bonus point wins against Samoa/Russia which leaves it a straight shootout between the 3.
Can/will Scotland beat Japan? Last game of the pool & both will know exactly what they have to do. Pre WC this was always going to be a/the decider. Ireland thought it would be for 2nd & 3rd spot though.
That aside how impressive were Japan. If they can keep up that energy for the tournament they can trouble anybody.
I believe the IRFU & their sponsors are travelling out for the Samoa game & will stay until Ireland gets knocked out. Could be a short trip with egg on their faces. Lets hope not.

I think Japan vs Scotland holds the key to who will finish top and who finishes second.

OP updated with results and table. Ireland should put Russia away with some ease on Thursday - especially with Russia having already named a second string lineup.

Japan will need to match Scotlands result against Samoa on Saturday, but helped by Samoa having a shortish turnaround.

lostinwales wrote:

TightHEAD wrote:Yet another ridiculous pre-game dance!

Thinking about it an England take on the haka would have to include gestures indicating pouring of tea and queuing.

People joke about this, but surely it would be lining up and sending a volley of muket fire straight at the haka? Probably best they just stand there and watch in that case...

LondonTiger wrote:OP updated with results and table. Ireland should put Russia away with some ease on Thursday - especially with Russia having already named a second string lineup.

Should. But of course it doesn't always work out that way. Ireland know what they have to do to keep safe-ish for now. Big win against Russia. Now whilst the win might not (gulp) be in doubt, will we really get going piling on the pints...I mean points....? And when you want to pile them on, sometimes the tension destroys your efforts.

Anyway... a dicey, edgy group now and all caused by those meddling kids Japan.

LondonTiger wrote:OP updated with results and table. Ireland should put Russia away with some ease on Thursday - especially with Russia having already named a second string lineup.

Japan will need to match Scotlands result against Samoa on Saturday, but helped by Samoa having a shortish turnaround.

Not to be picky, but Scotland are now 3rd ahead of Samoa.

Ireland will beat Russia with a try bonus point.

Japan should beat Samoa who aren't a great team, have injury and suspension worries and are coming off a short turnaround. If Japan don't win on Saturday I'll be very surprised.

Scotland should then beat Russia with a try bonus point.

With this in mind, it will be:

Japan - 13/14
Ireland - 11
Scotland - 10

Going into the final round of fixtures.

Ireland should beat Samoa and should also be getting a try bonus point, so that would put them up on 16 and safely through to the next round.

Scotland should be able to further close the points difference gap to Japan, especially if they can put a big, big score on Russia. Can Japan get a try bonus point against Samoa? If not then a losing bonus point may not be enough against Scotland. If they can get the try bonus point and get themselves onto 14 points before the Scotland game, they essentially give themselves a 7.5 point start, as Scotland will have to win by 8 to take it down to points difference.

robbo277 wrote:
Scotland should be able to further close the points difference gap to Japan, especially if they can put a big, big score on Russia. Can Japan get a try bonus point against Samoa? If not then a losing bonus point may not be enough against Scotland. If they can get the try bonus point and get themselves onto 14 points before the Scotland game, they essentially give themselves a 7.5 point start, as Scotland will have to win by 8 to take it down to points difference.

Doesn't it go down to head to head if both teams are tied on points? So Scotland would need to win with a BP and/or deny Japan a LBP?

Looking tricky for Scotland, but not out of the question. Perhaps the more likely situation is Japan to top the group? I'm not sure though. I'd back Scotland to beat Japan, but maybe not by enough to qualify.

miaow wrote:Looking tricky for Scotland, but not out of the question. Perhaps the more likely situation is Japan to top the group? I'm not sure though. I'd back Scotland to beat Japan, but maybe not by enough to qualify.

I don't think Scotland have enough depth to beat a rested Japan on a 4 day turnaround. They are already down several players . It was a good showing against Samoa, but I can't see them winning two games in such a short timeframe when one of them is a higher ranked side with a home advantage.

I am watching the game right now. 27 minutes in and Scotland have only scored 3 points.

I do not think Japan will be toooooooo worried.

Look Scotland will want to win against Japan - obviously.

But Japan won't be under No Pressure.  They'll be (if they beat Samoa) so close to even more glory.  The home fans will be expectant.  The media will be buzzing.  They'll be buoyed perhaps but they'll be nervous too.   If they make mistakes in the game Scotland will be in a greedy mood.   They'll be aware that everything has to be the same intensity as against Ireland.

majesticimperialman wrote:I am watching the game right now. 27 minutes in and Scotland have only scored 3 points.

I do not think Japan will be toooooooo worried.

It's about to get more dominant.

It certainly looks as if the odds are stacked in Japan's favour. Japan securing a BP win against Samoa in their next fixture will probably set them up as favourites for the final showdown with Scotland.

Yeah, but the game still has to be played.......... unless, there is a game cancelling Typhoon of course

Sexton plus Luke McGrath, now there's a strange brain wave from Ireland camp.  I know it's Russia, but Sexton with an actual Provincial teammate at 9 ('familiar unit' philosophy ticked instantly)

Won't say too much to perhaps jinx a side that doesn't need no more jinxing, but also with Sexton as controlling captain, looks like we have potential to practice a sharper, heads-up brand of rugby.  Lord knows, we don't get to practice it too often.

1. Dave Kilcoyne
2. Niall Scannell
3. John Ryan
4. Tadhg Beirne
5. Jean Kleyn
6. Rhys Ruddock
7. Peter O'Mahony
8. Jordi Murphy
9. Luke McGrath
10. Johnny Sexton (capt.)
11. Keith Earls
12. Bundee Aki
13. Garry Ringrose
14. Andrew Conway
15. Rob Kearney

16. Sean Cronin
17. Andrew Porter
18. Tadhg Furlong
19. Iain Henderson
20. CJ Stander
21. Joey Carbery
22. Jack Carty
23. Jordan Larmour

Carbery covering scrum half?

I'm not sure if Japan will get a BP over Samoa to be honest. I can see the Samoans putting up a brick wall in defence and then hitting Japan on the counter.

I think Japan will win but I dont think they will get the 4 tries.

Scotland should also easily see off Russia even playing a mostly 2nd string team and with a mostly 2nd string XV the 4 day turnaround shouldn't hit us too much.

If Samoa deny Japan that BPP then it means Scotland just need a win over Japan (a team we've beaten each time we meet them - inc after they beat SA last WC). This means we dont need to worry about BPs which should make the win more acheiveable.