Wales v Scotland Saturday 14th March 2020

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Wales v Scotland
6N 5th Round

Principality Stadium
Cardiff

KO 14.15

Well Scotland and Wales draw the long straw and are the ones to be able to get their 6N competition played and out of the way. The way results have gone this time around was always going to make this an interesting game and now everyone is going to be concentrating on this match.

Cardiff, as it has often been said, has not proved to be a happy hunting ground for Scottish teams for a long long time. Is this year going to be any different. Well form might suggest that it may be. A Wales side in transition, new coach, new style and several newish players, have so far struggled a bit this year. Plenty of heart on show as always, but not really quite getting the new tactics and consequently making far to many errors. They have also been handicapped by an appalling injury list and that may be getting even worse following the very bruising match against England last weekend.

Scotland, on the other hand have built pretty well into the tournament and played their best game so far in beating France comfortably at the weekend. France, it should be reminded, were fancied to tie up their first GS in a long time after winning their first three games.

Scotland's own tournament has not been incident free, with Finngate taking centre stage and a lot of Scottish fans dissatisfied with the direction Toonie seemed to be taking this Scottish team and calling for his head. After two wins on the bounce though, the pressure on Toonie and the team seems to have abated a bit and some more serious thinkers are coming round to the conclusion that maybe Toonie, in trying to make Scotland a more structured team that are first and foremost, hard to beat, may actually be on to something. Certainly some of the coaching appointments prior to this tournament are looking nothing short of inspired. Who would ever have believed that after 4 rounds, Scotland would have the best defensive record in the tournament?

Still for all the positives, this is still Wales in Cardiff, a wounded and angry Wales, who will badly want to salvage some pride from an otherwise disappointing tournament. This is a real test as to the progression of this Scotland team, can they turn some promise into hard results.

For Wales, losing 4 out of 5 is probably approaching the unthinkable, especially to Scotland, who have always been seen as a soft touch. This will be a fascinating encounter in so many ways.

I am hoping for Scotland team something along these lines, there won't be many/any changes from the last game:

1. Sutherland - a shout for player of the tournament, has been outstanding
2. McInally - Toonie seems keen to rotate them
3. Fagerson
4. Cummings
5. Gilchrist - came back into the team with something to prove and proved it
6. Ritchie - the man everyone loves to hate
7. Watson
8. Haining - assuming not suspended, Bradbury if he is
9. Horne - is not now then when, deserves a start
10. Hastings
11. Maitland
12. Johnson - owns the shirt now, has had a good tournament
13. Harris - even the many doubters quietly impressed on sunday
14. Kinghorn - under pressure from Steyn though
15. Hogg - has grown into the captaincy

Subs:

Dell
Brown
Nel
Skinner
Bradbury (Fagerson if Haining out)
Price
Hutchinson - Hastings seems to have got over his wobbles in Italy and it is the last game of the tournament and no weather issues indoors
Steyn - Not much time on his debut, but did well

How does that work for those who have bought tickets then, can we get our money back, or just save it for the reschedule?

Dodson is now suing Covid-19 for the game being cancelled

What???

Just saying it before someone else does

Seriously though. Common sense prevails here. I still don’t see why we’re so worried about the virus when others are infecting and killing more people, but I’m not a medical professional.

tigertattie wrote:Dodson is now suing Covid-19 for the game being cancelled

What???

Just saying it before someone else does

Seriously though. Common sense prevails here. I still don’t see why we’re so worried about the virus when others are infecting and killing more people, but I’m not a medical professional.

As a percentage the death rate is low. But it’s the rate of spread and lack of immunity that is different to other viruses and diseases. Plus a lack of vaccine. The 1918 flu had a similarly low mortality rate (around 2%) but 50 million people died. Ebola recently was a much higher mortality rate but only 28,000 people had it in total.

tigertattie wrote:Dodson is now suing Covid-19 for the game being cancelled

What???

Just saying it before someone else does

Seriously though. Common sense prevails here. I still don’t see why we’re so worried about the virus when others are infecting and killing more people, but I’m not a medical professional.

Currently and allegedly not so quickly or in such numbers.... certainly in the West.  When hospitals and medical professionals say that the main concern is hospitals being overwhelmed and therefore not being in a position to help the numbers that might start showing...then yes, they are either overdoing the warning, lying about the threat - or they are telling the truth.

When you have those three things lurking around a serious sounding virus, you kinda decide to believe the latter just to ere on the side of caution.  The danger is hospitals being overrun, staff succumbing and then other patients with other condidtions suffering as a consequence.  A snowballing effect when a virus acts quickly and kills enough to cause panic to cripple a health system.

I'm told the low death rate is what is dangerous about the disease. A disease that killed 90% of it's sufferers within a rapid period of time won't spread very far. Covid-19 seems to be fairly infectious, kills off the most vulnerable and lives unknown in the youngest for a reasonable period of time. It could also mutate and then we're in a really horrible situation.
In Ohio they reckon 100,000 people have it without knowing and are wandering around passing it on. If twenty percent of those people have a serious reaction to it then it threatens to overwhelm emergency services. Emergency services here are already struggling. People haven't stopped having heart attacks or cancer in the last couple of weeks so it's the collateral as well. Our health service is designed to cope with a standard amount of life threatening and serious conditions, as well as important operations and routine surgeries at a certain time. Coronavirus dumps an extra few thousand on top of that.

If we shut everything down and this reduces infection and mortality it will unfortunately feed into the 'what was the fuss all about' argument.

It's very easy to end up with a Y2K situation where the lack of problems hid the huge amount of work done behind the scenes.

On a sideline issue...though still inevitably Corona... , been just thinking;  schools and colleges are off here in Ireland.  Now I'm betting on the stupidity of the common humanbeing that some dumb parents just won't - I repeat just WON'T - be able to resist taking the time to pack their bags and head off to some lovely climes for the ye olde stubborn family holiday during school term schmaltz.
I wonder how long it will be before I hear of a neighbour and their kids off on their holiers now that the little darlings have an extra mid term break.

SecretFly wrote:On a sideline issue...though still inevitably Corona... , been just thinking;  schools and colleges are off here in Ireland.  Now I'm betting on the stupidity of the common humanbeing that some dumb parents just won't - I repeat just WON'T - be able to resist taking the time to pack their bags and head off to some lovely climes for the ye olde stubborn family holiday during school term schmaltz.
I wonder how long it will be before I hear of a neighbour and their kids off on their holiers now that the little darlings have an extra mid term break.

That's the silly option. I bet the holidays are cheap if you can find them and don't mind spending 2 weeks in a hotel before being let outside. A bigger problem will be childcare. Homeworking to the constant background of 'daddy daddy mummy mummy' won't be fun at all.

The Oracle wrote:Oh yes.  Good one - let fans travel here for the game THEN cancel it!  Could have saved a lot of trouble cancelling it yesterday or Weds.  

Agreed. Farcical. Purely a cash grab attempt by the WRU to keep it on.

SecretFly wrote:On a sideline issue...though still inevitably Corona... , been just thinking;  schools and colleges are off here in Ireland.  Now I'm betting on the stupidity of the common humanbeing that some dumb parents just won't - I repeat just WON'T - be able to resist taking the time to pack their bags and head off to some lovely climes for the ye olde stubborn family holiday during school term schmaltz.
I wonder how long it will be before I hear of a neighbour and their kids off on their holiers now that the little darlings have an extra mid term break.

Would you blame them though?

I think some will go for the health reasons alone, never mind the huge holiday savings to be had.

They docs keep saying "we need to get to summer" - If you dont want to be infected, why wait for summer to come when you can jet off to the Bahamas where its already "summer"

Shame many poorer families cant afford to jet off somewhere warm. Wait a minute, could this be Boris's grand plan to kill off the economically inactive?

tigertattie wrote:

SecretFly wrote:On a sideline issue...though still inevitably Corona... , been just thinking;  schools and colleges are off here in Ireland.  Now I'm betting on the stupidity of the common humanbeing that some dumb parents just won't - I repeat just WON'T - be able to resist taking the time to pack their bags and head off to some lovely climes for the ye olde stubborn family holiday during school term schmaltz.
I wonder how long it will be before I hear of a neighbour and their kids off on their holiers now that the little darlings have an extra mid term break.

Would you blame them though?

I think some will go for the health reasons alone, never mind the huge holiday savings to be had.

They docs keep saying "we need to get to summer" - If you dont want to be infected, why wait for summer to come when you can jet off to the Bahamas where its already "summer"

Shame many poorer families cant afford to jet off somewhere warm. Wait a minute, could this be Boris's grand plan to kill off the economically inactive?

The summer isn't to do with Corona being less likely to infect people, it's to do with lessening the winter pressures on healthcare. You're not any less likely to catch corona in a warmer climate if you're exposed. Look at Singapore, Australia etc. The only reason it's less likely that you'll catch it in the summer because people spend more time outside in open spaces and less inside the cinema, shops, etc. I've had summer colds before and they are far more miserable than winter colds!

lostinwales wrote: If we shut everything down and this reduces infection and mortality it will unfortunately feed into the 'what was the fuss all about' argument.

It's very easy to end up with a Y2K situation where the lack of problems hid the huge amount of work done behind the scenes.

I was part of a team that spent almost 36 months and many £m ensuring that our sector would not fail - people indeed say "what was all that about" without understanding just how much effort went into ensuring it was a non-event.

LondonTiger wrote:

lostinwales wrote: If we shut everything down and this reduces infection and mortality it will unfortunately feed into the 'what was the fuss all about' argument.

It's very easy to end up with a Y2K situation where the lack of problems hid the huge amount of work done behind the scenes.

I was part of a team that spent almost 36 months and many £m ensuring that our sector would not fail - people indeed say "what was all that about" without understanding just how much effort went into ensuring it was a non-event.

Huh - so you were one of the ones spending all that money not doing anything then..... :-)

WRU obviously worried about the effect of 4 consecutive losses

I was genuinely shocked it was still going ahead.

I wrote on here about how we are dealing with things in Japan. I don't think the Japanese government is covering itself in glory, so I wouldn't hold us up as an example to follow. However, we had a lead on you of 10 days to 2 weeks in public perception.

The reason to cancel events is not just about direct infection risk, or even the way healthy attendees will become vectors to higher risk individuals. You cancel, because you are trying to mobilize the whole population to a new state of awareness. Running major sports events or concerts sends the message that everything is still basically all right. You might do that in response to a terrorist attack, but it's not advisable when you are trying to tell people that they have to change the way they have behaved for most of their lives.

NeilyBroon wrote:

tigertattie wrote:

SecretFly wrote:On a sideline issue...though still inevitably Corona... , been just thinking;  schools and colleges are off here in Ireland.  Now I'm betting on the stupidity of the common humanbeing that some dumb parents just won't - I repeat just WON'T - be able to resist taking the time to pack their bags and head off to some lovely climes for the ye olde stubborn family holiday during school term schmaltz.
I wonder how long it will be before I hear of a neighbour and their kids off on their holiers now that the little darlings have an extra mid term break.

Would you blame them though?

I think some will go for the health reasons alone, never mind the huge holiday savings to be had.

They docs keep saying "we need to get to summer" - If you dont want to be infected, why wait for summer to come when you can jet off to the Bahamas where its already "summer"

Shame many poorer families cant afford to jet off somewhere warm. Wait a minute, could this be Boris's grand plan to kill off the economically inactive?

The summer isn't to do with Corona being less likely to infect people, it's to do with lessening the winter pressures on healthcare. You're not any less likely to catch corona in a warmer climate if you're exposed. Look at Singapore, Australia etc. The only reason it's less likely that you'll catch it in the summer because people spend more time outside in open spaces and less inside the cinema, shops, etc. I've had summer colds before and they are far more miserable than winter colds!

But but Trump said....

With this week's game now postponed is this years 6ns now over?

Will these potpones ever get played? and how will it effect the rest of the season?

Rest of the season is hugely unlikely to happen making the band largely irrelevant.
When and if fixtures can get played will depend on when the situation improves, but theres only so much they can load to autumn.

Turns out our u20s put 50 points on Wales, which means in an unbelievable turn of events mean that Scotland u20s are the ultimate champions of international rugby. It was good while it lasted and I hope to see some of you for a game of three aside in the post-apocalyptic championship.

That's a remarkable result for our under 20s who have had a decent tournament.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51868831

guestalt_physicality wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51868831

I use social media a lot. But I do think a lot that we’d be better off without it completely. Keep email, text, WhatsApp, Internet, etc.  But I’m sure we’d be so much better off without news comments, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.  There’s just no way of stopping the sh*te with social media.  

The worst part of social media is people's ability to just announce things with no filter. Whether we like it or not, unknowingly so, the old media acted as a filter. Editors found people who knew what they were talking about for a subject and gave them a platform. People then read the paper and formed their opinion. Now anyone with a barely functioning brain and two fingers can pronounce their opinion on the world. Where experts led, the public followed. Now the mob's sensitivities are considered and malleable opinion columnists are found to correspond. If a second year drama student has a comforting opinion on coronavirus it travels twice around the world before the scientist's opinion gets next door. If a jingoist has a seductive conspiracy theory on the world it gains more traction than a life of experience at the top of government. If a wee tw*t with a bad opinion of a celebrity decides to launch an uninformed opinion of an individual across the airwaves then it hits home more than family and friends who love them more than anybody. Social media is a brilliant thing at its best, my family live from the far north of the British Isles to the far south, and over the last decade we've been able to keep in contact with our most remote, most vulnerable relatives in a way previous generations couldn't imagine. But where human's have the freedom to love, they have the opportunity to hate and far too often a small minority choose the latter. 606v2 is, for the most part, a refreshing break from that. There's a whole group of people who love their sport, and know their sport. There's people here who monitor people's worst impulses on emotive subjects and it makes it tick. For some reason, on Facebook and Twitter, that would be considered a break with freedom of speech, where, for most of us, the boundaries here represent a fair reflection of the lines of human decency with a fair dose of healthy discretion.

The Oracle wrote:

guestalt_physicality wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51868831

I use social media a lot. But I do think a lot that we’d be better off without it completely. Keep email, text, WhatsApp, Internet, etc.  But I’m sure we’d be so much better off without news comments, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.  There’s just no way of stopping the sh*te with social media.  

If either of my crushes Williams and North have a bad game ten games in a row, kindly refrain from pointing it out, otherwise I’ll have tantrums all over V2. Thanks.

 RDW wrote:That's a remarkable result for our under 20s who have had a decent tournament.

Sounds like they could have beaten England and Ireland, could have been better. Your 10 and 2nd row were very good. Turns out that could be the last game of the season, ending on a high and all that...

What a complete mess this has been and to what point!

I have no issue with the game being cancelled, but massive issue with it being cancelled on a Friday afternoon after various assurances that it was going ahead. This is not the 6N finest hour, no doubt under serious political pressure, but they should have seen which way the wind was blowing on this.

What about all the Scottish (and Welsh) fans who have travelled to see the game, they will no doubt be milling around Cardiff now waiting for their transport home on Sunday or Monday. They will also be massively out of pocket, only getting their match ticket refunded.

It does strike me that our politicians are rapidly backtracking from the strategy they set out yesterday, presumably because a lot of people seemed to disagree with it.

If this is the way the whole crisis is going to get managed, then we are in real trouble.

It looks like the Scots are just getting pished now, in kilts.

It's the lack of political pressure that led to them keeping it on so long.It's still government advice it's pointless to cancel stuff, although sounds like they are bowing to social media pressure and are going to ban mass gatherings to look like they are doing something.

Look like you're doing something

Or

Be told you're doing nothing


It's a lose lose scenario in the grand scheme of politics.  And no matter what politicians claim or indeed their support bases either in voters or the journalistic media - the Coronavirus is and will continue to be 'weaponised' for politucal opportunism.

But back to sport.  They have their own priorities and shouldn't always go running around blaming government guidance for logistical nightmares.  They have their own underlying requirements - profit - and they're more than prepared to risk populations to get them....; thus why WRU went as close to their goal of a full stadium as they could.  
The game should have been postponed when the others were - out of pure regard for ticket holders so that they'd have a solid situation to then work from.  This maybe, maybe, maybe approach by the day in the lead up was just greed overruling best practice.

Not blaming WRU in isolation... but sport in general; it ironically has become a bit of a virus itself - over playing its importance, over exposed in media coverage, over paying its participators, over zealous in its attempts to always have special status.

I do think a fair number of entities have been waiting on the government to ban gatherings thereby getting themselves off the hook for refunding tickets. And quite possibly the government hanging back because it doesnt want lots of compensation claims from leisure industries. But I'm a cynic.

I think it's far more likely that insurance companies cover acts of parliament/ government than they do pandemics. The other two games were being played in Italy and in France where the respective governments had banned sports fixtures. The FFR and the FIR were probably covered by insurance or the government in a way the WRU simply weren't. Up until yesterday, all matches on British soil had been played as planned. When the Premier League and the Pro14 broke cover then the WRU had no leg to stand on. The government's response changed rapidly from just wash your hands and you'll be fine, to 'for the strong to survive, the weak must perish'. Everyone knew the direction of travel but didn't know when we'd get there. There's been a huge heightening of the rhetoric in Britain in the last few days. I watched the Wales-England game in an unbelievably crowded pub, strangers were hugging when tries were scored and coronavirus was laughed at. Now it all seems very real and very serious.

Gotta love this quote form Gareth Davies:

‘I don’t think we could have dealt with it any better’. That’s a belter, even for the WRU.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51881006

One thing I don't understand is the huge percentages of likely infections being bandied around 60,70,80% etc. If, and it's a big if, the numbers from China are to be believed their reported cases amount to less than .01% of the population (approx 100,000 out of 1.5 billion). Even if the actual number is 100 times higher that's still less than 1% assuming my maths is right.
I realise there are differences in geography etc but that's still a massive gap to the numbers being suggested here. Are China just that much better at controlling this?

Heaf wrote:One thing I don't understand is the huge percentages of likely infections being bandied around 60,70,80% etc.  If, and it's a big if, the numbers from China are to be believed their reported cases amount to less than .01% of the population (approx 100,000 out of 1.5 billion).  Even if the actual number is 100 times higher that's still less than 1% assuming my maths is right.
I realise there are differences in geography etc but that's still a massive gap to the numbers being suggested here.  Are China just that much better at controlling this?

One big factor is the number of people walking round with it who do not know. Ohio health officials (where as of yesterday there were 5 confirmed cases) believe they probably have over 100k cases.

The 60 to 70% put forward by Angela Merkel seems rather large, but who knows what period of time that covers and what level of infection. To build up herd immunity we do need a large proportion of the population to come into contact with the virus.

Herd immunity.

I’m no a cow. Or a sheep (no stereotypical jokes please)

The Oracle wrote:Gotta love this quote form Gareth Davies:

‘I don’t think we could have dealt with it any better’.    That’s a belter, even for the WRU.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51881006

True enough. They’ve made a mess of everything. The international and then deciding to pull the plug on the community games for a month, whilst some games were going on today (Cross Keys and others).

mikey_dragon wrote:otherwise I’ll have tantrums all over V2. Thanks.

Otherwise?

guestalt_physicality wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:otherwise I’ll have tantrums all over V2. Thanks.

Otherwise?

Miaow

Heaf wrote:One thing I don't understand is the huge percentages of likely infections being bandied around 60,70,80% etc.  If, and it's a big if, the numbers from China are to be believed their reported cases amount to less than .01% of the population (approx 100,000 out of 1.5 billion).  Even if the actual number is 100 times higher that's still less than 1% assuming my maths is right.
I realise there are differences in geography etc but that's still a massive gap to the numbers being suggested here.  Are China just that much better at controlling this?

Yes.  Well spotted, Heaf.  Where are the projections coming from?  What is the model?  China was considered the source region.  It has the longest record of infections plus recovery rates etc (months of data).  It would have to be the model used to predict percentages.  So yes, the numbers don't seem to be adding up between Western projections and actual numbers coming from initial source.

A few possible scenarios:

China quickly enough closed down a specific area (and they can ) so that including the full population of China in any infection forecast might be an inaccurate reading.  Doing the figures exclusively from the Wuhan area (if officially available) might be a more accurate reading of percentages.

China can't be fully believed about numbers.  Well perhaps.  But what Government/Economic bloc can be fully believed when global political battles are ongoing - trade, influence, conflict, stock market volatility (often considered a positive environment for certain investors) etc etc?  
The 60, 70, 80%, as bandied about by a number of countries, that often appear over casual in language choice when allegedly not trying to panic their populations, might have multifaceted reasons for being introduced as projections.  
The best that can be said is that the general public are in the dark about genuine reasons for initial outbreak, genuine numbers being infected, genuine overall initial seriousness of the virus within a population as whole, genuine long term effects post-infection (some reports have mentioned possible infertility.......)
We are in the dark, clutching at an old convention for hope - i.e., believe officialdom.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm - a deplorable spot to be in for an ultra cynic such as myself

mikey_dragon wrote:

The Oracle wrote:

guestalt_physicality wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51868831

I use social media a lot. But I do think a lot that we’d be better off without it completely. Keep email, text, WhatsApp, Internet, etc.  But I’m sure we’d be so much better off without news comments, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.  There’s just no way of stopping the sh*te with social media.  

If either of my crushes Williams and North have a bad game ten games in a row, kindly refrain from pointing it out, otherwise I’ll have tantrums all over V2. Thanks.

Have a go all you like at North but hes the only man who can get an opposition player red carded by falling infront of him.

It might seem like a stupid question... but those currently serving a ban, is that still going whilst the season is suspended? Or does their ban resume when the season does?

mikey_dragon wrote:It might seem like a stupid question... but those currently serving a ban, is that still going whilst the season is suspended? Or does their ban resume when the season does?

They'll be forgiven...ie, the ban will include season suspension weeks.

mikey_dragon wrote:

guestalt_physicality wrote:

mikey_dragon wrote:otherwise I’ll have tantrums all over V2. Thanks.

Otherwise?

Miaow

I'm not, no, but that name does seem to occupy your mind quite a lot, doesn't it. It's incredibly ironic how you fit the mould of the social media abuser George North talks about. Ever since Cuthbert left Wales the media has needed a new scapegoat and George North is that man for the yellow press and the easily led (like you) who 'need' (I say need - choose would be more accurate) to project their hostility at something. It seemed to me it's not just been miaow over the years who you ranted and raved at but he/she is the one you long for the most by the looks of things. Very sad, very nasty. I don't care about the constant comparisons even if others are taking your lead, it's a strange thing to have to read but it's so ridiculous it's bemusing, but the point about it getting to rugby players should be obvious enough. North is still playing well enough for selection and has done since recovering from injuries in 2017.

As I said, 'otherwise'? There is no 'otherwise' with you.

Anyway, very disappointed that the game was cancelled from a spectator perspective but it is absolutely the correct decision.

mods surely it's time for miaow to go now? This is beyond ridiculous

Didn't they get banned? In which case the only place they need to leave would be your head (where to use a lovely phrase I learned from James Haskell's podcast they would be 'living rent free'? LOL)?

I wonder whether Scotland Rugby Union is going to threaten to sue their government for the match being cancelled

Old Man wrote:I wonder whether Scotland Rugby Union is going to threaten to sue their government for the match being cancelled

According to some poster above (or on another related thread) they've already gone direct to source and are bringing legal proceedings against the virus itself.

That and the toilet paper companies. The match would have gone ahead if the WRU had more loo roll.