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Another Drive4show 'Anything goes' thread

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Plunky
George1507
Davie
westisbest
McLaren
pedro
Pal Joey
I'm never wrong
Shotrock
kwinigolfer
navyblueshorts
beninho
Soul Requiem
JAS
super_realist
dynamark
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Post by dynamark Thu 26 Mar 2020, 8:14 pm

First topic message reminder :

I suppose it sort of makes sense with the Dyson effort because they just have to switch to blow.
Hope it works.
The self employed will have to adjust in future and get a bit closer to the NI and paye system.It has always been a bit unwritten that you can limit your contributions somewhat as self employed in the building trade and others but a big part of the economy. Again this may close a few gaps

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Post by Soul Requiem Wed 22 Apr 2020, 8:08 am

beninho wrote:
Soul Requiem wrote:Out of interest how many ventilators have the EU procured so far?

Now, you can use hindsight to make a judgement?

You made the rules on that one so live by it.

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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 8:17 am

Soul Requiem wrote:
beninho wrote:
Soul Requiem wrote:Out of interest how many ventilators have the EU procured so far?

Now, you can use hindsight to make a judgement?

You made the rules on that one so live by it.

Not about me is it, you've been mr Mr can't use hindsight to criticise the government, but you can to back them up. So is hindsight fine to criticise then?

The government have said none have come through yet, I'm not sure how long it takes to produce new ventilators though. My issue is the constant lying about why we didn't get involved was it due to communication errors, or is it as said, a political decision because it's the eu. Nothing has been said, we didn't join because we didn't think they would have them within weeks.


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Post by JAS Wed 22 Apr 2020, 8:17 am

super_realist wrote:Fuel and so many things  in real terms has gone down JAS. A far lower % of our incomes are spent on fuel than they were in the past. Same as food prices whilst other things like consumer goods like tv's, computers etc are all significantly cheaper. Life is far better now in pretty much every respect.

Everything wasn't always better in the old days. I'm bloody glad we don't have terrible industries like coal anymore. Who wants to be sent down a mine?
Life is far better now than it was in the 1970's even with this bloody virus I'd still prefer to be around now than during a three day week, tripping over a months worth of rubbish and dead bodies whilst dodging picket lines and having to buy terrible products made by Brummies who don't give a toss about quality.

You can crow about capitalism "failing" all you like but there is no viable alternative which allows us to live the life we have become accustomed to and which fuels progeession.

I have no idea why people look back to the past and claim things were great when they were demonstrably awful. Very few people owned property, people still had outdoor toilets, no central heating etc. The 60's and 70's were awful times, thank goodness they are no longer with us.

As for capitalism failing, how do you work that out? How has Coronavirus caused capitalism to fail? What system is doing well in the current climate? None, so it's not that any system has failed, its that Coronavirus has put a strain on every economic model. What system would you rather live under I wonder?

You are a capitalist, so why are you so keen on running it down?

Brilliant, there were a few important points in my ramble and you made a really impressive effort to miss most of them.
Really interesting that you pick fuel as an example but let’s go with it. I’m quite sure if we picked an example job (let’s say a nurse) compare the 1979 wage to 2020 wage. Then take the price of a gallon of petrol in the same period and work out the %age. However that’s not the key point, I was thinking more about real disposable income. The biggest outgoing most people have is rent or mortgage. If you compare the average wage to the average house price in 1979 to now, the penny should begin to drop about what I’m trying to say about unsustainable. In a sense this is not a simple Labour/Tory thing, it’s bigger than that. We all want (I presume) a society where we all (certainly the vast majority) can live, work and prosper and enjoy the fruits of hard work? THAT Super is what is NOT happening for too many. We may be doing ok but too many Mr & Mrs averages are struggling to make ends meet 40 years on from starting being sold “Trickle down” lies.

You can slag off the 70s and mention a couple of personal anecdotes, I however would ask you to compare levels of personal & household debt, mental illness (much of which will be the pressure of servicing debt), homelessness, crime (especially gang related knife crime). Other things you could compare are child poverty (the UN can supply you a report on that from last year) Finally compare income inequality...and THERE is where you’ll find much of the root cause Also compare income inequality.

A Lot of wealth has been created over the last 40 years and quite a few people have obviously done well but the broad distribution of that wealth is skewed toward the top and the societal changes that has caused has pretty much fractured our society. Only now, when a pandemic smashes into us are we realising how asset stripped and broken a society we are. Our Healthcare system, once the pride of the world is not even in the European top 20 and we need 99 year old pensioners walking marathons in his garden to supplement its funding.

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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 9:08 am

https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1252841436317315072?s=19

These numbers are pretty scary. My manager at work has been in hospital having oxygen. My dad had a terrible cough and all the aches and pains, luckily didn't spread to his lungs, as he is I'm his 60s.

All the bickering and arguing takes away from how horrible this is. Something must of us have never seen before. So far past the days of laughing at people in face masks, or thinking it's just the flu. And doesn't look like it will vanish any time soon.

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Post by Soul Requiem Wed 22 Apr 2020, 9:17 am

beninho wrote:https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1252841436317315072?s=19

These numbers are pretty scary. My manager at work has been in hospital having oxygen. My dad had a terrible cough and all the aches and pains, luckily didn't spread to his lungs, as he is I'm his 60s.

All the bickering and arguing takes away from how horrible this is. Something must of us have never seen before. So far past the days of laughing at people in face masks, or thinking it's just the flu. And doesn't look like it will vanish any time soon.

There are A LOT of assumptions in that post so i'll stick to the official figures and the data released by ONS which is actually death registrations up to the 18th April back dated to the 10th April so not the 6th as he proclaims. All in all a pretty shocking situation to be in and ultimately the numbers don't do justice to the fact that these are actual people and actual families being affected. Using the data available from ONS and PHE the true number appears to be around 24,000 so an increase of about 40%.

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 9:23 am

JAS wrote:
super_realist wrote:Fuel and so many things  in real terms has gone down JAS. A far lower % of our incomes are spent on fuel than they were in the past. Same as food prices whilst other things like consumer goods like tv's, computers etc are all significantly cheaper. Life is far better now in pretty much every respect.

Everything wasn't always better in the old days. I'm bloody glad we don't have terrible industries like coal anymore. Who wants to be sent down a mine?
Life is far better now than it was in the 1970's even with this bloody virus I'd still prefer to be around now than during a three day week, tripping over a months worth of rubbish and dead bodies whilst dodging picket lines and having to buy terrible products made by Brummies who don't give a toss about quality.

You can crow about capitalism "failing" all you like but there is no viable alternative which allows us to live the life we have become accustomed to and which fuels progeession.

I have no idea why people look back to the past and claim things were great when they were demonstrably awful. Very few people owned property, people still had outdoor toilets, no central heating etc. The 60's and 70's were awful times, thank goodness they are no longer with us.

As for capitalism failing, how do you work that out? How has Coronavirus caused capitalism to fail? What system is doing well in the current climate? None, so it's not that any system has failed, its that Coronavirus has put a strain on every economic model. What system would you rather live under I wonder?

You are a capitalist, so why are you so keen on running it down?

Brilliant, there were a few important points in my ramble and you made a really impressive effort to miss most of them.
Really interesting that you pick fuel as an example but let’s go with it. I’m quite sure if we picked an example job (let’s say a nurse) compare the 1979 wage to 2020 wage. Then take the price of a gallon of petrol in the same period and work out the %age. However that’s not the key point, I was thinking more about real disposable income. The biggest outgoing most people have is rent or mortgage. If you compare the average wage to the average house price in 1979 to now, the penny should begin to drop about what I’m trying to say about unsustainable. In a sense this is not a simple Labour/Tory thing, it’s bigger than that. We all want (I presume) a society where we all (certainly the vast majority) can live, work and prosper and enjoy the fruits of hard work? THAT Super is what is NOT happening for too many. We may be doing ok but too many Mr & Mrs averages are struggling to make ends meet 40 years on from starting being sold “Trickle down” lies.

You can slag off the 70s and mention a couple of personal anecdotes, I however would ask you to compare levels of personal & household debt, mental illness (much of which will be the pressure of servicing debt), homelessness, crime (especially gang related knife crime). Other things you could compare are child poverty (the UN can supply you a report on that from last year) Finally compare income inequality...and THERE is where you’ll find much of the root cause Also compare income inequality.

A Lot of wealth has been created over the last 40 years and quite a few people have obviously done well but the broad distribution of that wealth is skewed toward the top and the societal changes that has caused has pretty much fractured our society. Only now, when a pandemic smashes into us are we realising how asset stripped and broken a society we are. Our Healthcare system, once the pride of the world is not even in the European top 20 and we need 99 year old pensioners walking marathons in his garden to supplement its funding.

You seem to forget that the interest rates in the 1970's were massive, making home ownership massively expensive and the % of people owning homes was far lower and the quality of housing also poor.
Things like mental health figures simply weren't recorded in the 1970's the way they are now not to mention how definitions of mental health have changed dramatically.
You're from Glasgow and you seem to forget the gang related knife crime of yesteryear.
You seem to look back on the old days with Rose tinted spectacles.
Wealth has always been skewed towards to the top, but there's an awful lot more people on middle income than there used to be, not to mention that the definition of what poverty is has also changed massively over time. Its not the Gorbals anymore.

Crippling interest rates, three day weeks, piles of rubbish, dead unburied for months, constant strikes and disgraceful inhuman industries like coal mining are not personal anecdotes.

You are falling into a lefty trap to aim that the NHS needs a 99 year old pensioner, it does not. It's a contribution which any person in any country could do for their own services. The NHS are certainly not reliant on these things and absolutely are not demanding them. That's the sort of nonsense I'd expect Flabbot to come out with.

Also, the NHS was never the pride of the world. Most countries will know nothing about it, and I'll say again that people's life choices are putting a massive strain on the NHS.

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 9:27 am

beninho wrote:The main things I've pointed out are that the government was to slow to react. And shouldn't have allowed Cheltenham festival or some of the other events that week. That was  government decision in mid March.

We have a government also saying brexit will be in December. Which on the face of it, looks like a ridiculous decision. A massive recession so we make it harder for companies to trade. Can I criticise on that point?

Plenty if other issues raised with the government's handling and dealings with the nhs over the last years. I think the government can be criticised on that.

Political decision to not get involved in the bulk buying of ventilators and ppe. Can that be criticised?

Can I criticise the government for voting against public sector pay rises a few years ago?

Can I criticise the government refusing to buy extra ppe a few years ago due to cost?

Can I criticise the government's decision to stop testing apart from hospital admissions?

Your lovely phrase of point scoring, while nonsense, but have you criticised the point scoring from the media building up boris?

Anyway, I fear for Hancock, he will be the sacrificial lamb at the end of this.

You can do that if you like, but none of that was raised in your original post.
You can claim the government was too slow to react, but so was virtually every other government on the planet, which you don't seem to acknowledge, so even if the government you voted for (Corbyn Laugh) had got in the reaction would most likely have been exactly the same.

As for buying in PPE a few years ago, when was that ever put forward as a suggestionin the quantities we would have needed and would it still be fit for purpose had it been bought 5-10 years ago? At best we'd probably have weeks more supply because this could never have been forecast to hit the country as hard as it has, which is why every single country virtually has been caught out similarly.


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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 9:29 am

#whataboutery Corbyn? Other governments?

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Post by Soul Requiem Wed 22 Apr 2020, 9:29 am

Wait a second the NHS isn't in the top 20 healthcare systems in Europe? What?

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 9:31 am

beninho wrote:#whataboutery Corbyn? Other governments?

At least I'm considering why things are happening the way they are. You are focusing on one point and directing your posts as if this is the sole reason that we find ourselves in this situation but completely ignore any other aspects.

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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 9:37 am

I've never said it's the sole point, well don't think so. I have said that it hasn't helped at all, along with many other decisions made by the recent governments. Stop trying to make up your own points to argue against.

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 9:56 am

beninho wrote:I've never said it's the sole point, well don't think so. I have said that it hasn't helped at all, along with many other decisions made by the recent governments. Stop trying to make up your own points to argue against.

That's exactly how it comes across because you never mention anything other than the government, and you ignore that virtually every other government has had similar problems which shows to me that the biggest problem was poor information in the beginning leading to slow decisions.
Why for example have you never criticised WHO? Had we had good information from then we could have reacted far quicker, but apparently its all Boris' fault.


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Post by Be_the_ball Wed 22 Apr 2020, 9:57 am

I see the State of Missouri is suing China over not containing it. I am really not surprised and can see this escalating. This is what I was saying yesterday, this is going to change a lot in relation to how the global economy works.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/22/missouri-sues-china-for-not-doing-enough-to-stop-coronavirus-spread

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 9:58 am

Be_the_ball wrote:I see the State of Missouri is suing China over not containing it. I am really not surprised and can see this escalating. This is what I was saying yesterday, this is going to change a lot in relation to how the global economy works.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/22/missouri-sues-china-for-not-doing-enough-to-stop-coronavirus-spread

Queue Own Jones types and claims of 'racism'

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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:21 am

Suppose the racism angle comes from people being abused for just being Chinese or Asian looking.


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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:28 am

beninho wrote:Suppose the racism angle comes from people being abused for just being Chinese  or Asian looking.


Well that would be, but suing a government for reparations wouldn't be seen as racist by normal people, only Owen Jones types, similarly that criticism of the idiotic Meghan Markle isn't racist despite numerous idiots claiming it was.

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Post by pedro Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:30 am

Good luck suing China. That's America for you.
They'll probably bring in WHO as neutral experts witnesses.

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Post by pedro Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:33 am

TBH, you can't blame governments for being hesitant to lock down society, send thousands into unemployment and jeopardise the economy for years to come.

For let's be honest (and cynical), 90% of those dying from/with corona would probably have died soon anyway.

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Post by Soul Requiem Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:35 am

pedro wrote:TBH, you can't blame governments for being hesitant to lock down society, send thousands into unemployment and jeopardise the economy for years to come.

For let's be honest (and cynical), 90% of those dying from/with corona would probably have died soon anyway.

The post pandemic death rates will be one to keep an eye out for, if they drop drastically below the weekly average of approximately 10,000 then that might be the case but if they return to previous levels then not so sure that holds up as an argument.

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:40 am

pedro wrote:TBH, you can't blame governments for being hesitant to lock down society, send thousands into unemployment and jeopardise the economy for years to come.

For let's be honest (and cynical), 90% of those dying from/with corona would probably have died soon anyway.

Deaths as unpleasant as they are really aren't the issue in this whole thing. 2-3 times as many people this year have died of Flu/pneumonia as have died of Coronavirus, the real reason behind our response and lockdown is to stop over running the NHS with demand if more of the population became ill at the same time.
We are up to about 17000 dead now which isn't great, but is only the same as one week in the UK on average.
Protecting the NHS is really the priority and reducing deaths being secondary as a result of isolation and less strain on the service.

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Post by JAS Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:41 am

super_realist wrote:
beninho wrote:I've never said it's the sole point, well don't think so. I have said that it hasn't helped at all, along with many other decisions made by the recent governments. Stop trying to make up your own points to argue against.

That's exactly how it comes across because you never mention anything other than the government, and you ignore that virtually every other government has had similar problems which shows to me that the biggest problem was poor information in the beginning leading to slow decisions.
Why for example have you never criticised WHO? Had we had good information from then we could have reacted far quicker, but apparently its all Boris' fault.

Look every other government has faced the same basic problem I.e. trying to protect its citizens from a horrific pandemic, not only protect its citizens but protect the very fabric of its society, from people, services, economy etc and there IS a balance that does need to be struck although protecting people and saving lives is the obvious priority. Making provision for getting through the hardship induced by the lockdown is important and I still say I have admiration for the bold step Sunak took in setting ideology aside to announce the package he did. Ultimately though, however unfair (due to different demographics etc) each govt will inevitably be judged on their death rate. I read an article at the weekend (not 100% on the exact date of the data but there were some startling stats revealed on deaths per million of population

Japan 1.9
New Zealand 2.5
Aus 2.7
South Korea 4.6
Greece 10.5
Finland 17
Norway 31
Germany 56
U.K. 241 (yes two hundred and forty one)

The article was emphasising the importance of early action, so while some countries jumped on it immediately we dithered, yes it’s easy to say with hindsight the likes of Cheltenham should have been cancelled. I remember my partner agonising over the Bath half marathon on 16th March. That SHOULD have been cancelled too but it wasn’t, there was no govt direction at that point other than to wash your hands. As it turned out half the field, including my partner had worked it out for themselves that it wasn’t sensible to do it. At that point the Irish had cancelled pretty much all of their St Paddy’s day celebrations so they had clearly collectively got the point before we had.

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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:44 am

super_realist wrote:
pedro wrote:TBH, you can't blame governments for being hesitant to lock down society, send thousands into unemployment and jeopardise the economy for years to come.

For let's be honest (and cynical), 90% of those dying from/with corona would probably have died soon anyway.

Deaths as unpleasant as they are really aren't the issue in this whole thing. 2-3 times as many people this year have died of Flu/pneumonia as have died of Coronavirus, the real reason behind our response and lockdown is to stop over running the  NHS  with demand if more of the population became ill at the same time.
We are up to about 17000 dead  now which isn't great, but is only the same as one week in the UK on average.
Protecting the NHS is really the priority and reducing deaths being secondary as a result of isolation and less strain on the service.

Where's the flu and pneumonia stats? That seems different to what I've seen. And the estimate for deaths is anything from 24k - 40k people.

I also think the 90% of people were going to die, has been put firmly to bed. I saw a stat that 9% needed daily support in living.

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:48 am

Saw it on the BBC website yesterday who got it from the ONS.
www.bbc.com/news/health-52361519

Of course the flu season will drop off soon, and therefore Coronavirus will close the gap a bit, but fortunately that seems to be dropping too. I'd expect around 30-35k based on current trends, which is a lot better than a lot of predictions.

The point the Sr was making about the 90% is not that they require support for living, but that it was likely they would have died of other causes within a year.

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Post by Soul Requiem Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:54 am

JAS wrote:
super_realist wrote:
beninho wrote:I've never said it's the sole point, well don't think so. I have said that it hasn't helped at all, along with many other decisions made by the recent governments. Stop trying to make up your own points to argue against.

That's exactly how it comes across because you never mention anything other than the government, and you ignore that virtually every other government has had similar problems which shows to me that the biggest problem was poor information in the beginning leading to slow decisions.
Why for example have you never criticised WHO? Had we had good information from then we could have reacted far quicker, but apparently its all Boris' fault.

Look every other government has faced the same basic problem I.e. trying to protect its citizens from a horrific pandemic, not only protect its citizens but protect the very fabric of its society, from people, services, economy etc and there IS a balance that does need to be struck although protecting people and saving lives is the obvious priority. Making provision for getting through the hardship induced by the lockdown is important and I still say I have admiration for the bold step Sunak took in setting ideology aside to announce the package he did. Ultimately though, however unfair (due to different demographics etc) each govt will inevitably be judged on their death rate. I read an article at the weekend (not 100% on the exact date of the data but  there were some startling stats revealed on deaths per million of population

Japan 1.9
New Zealand 2.5
Aus 2.7
South Korea 4.6
Greece 10.5
Finland 17
Norway 31
Germany 56
U.K. 241 (yes two hundred and forty one)

The article was emphasising the importance of early action, so while some countries jumped on it immediately we dithered, yes it’s easy to say with hindsight the likes of Cheltenham should have been cancelled. I remember my partner agonising over the Bath half marathon on 16th March. That SHOULD have been cancelled too but it wasn’t, there was no govt direction at that point other than to wash your hands. As it turned out half the field, including my partner had worked it out for themselves that it wasn’t sensible to do it. At that point the Irish had cancelled pretty much all of their St Paddy’s day celebrations so they had clearly collectively got the point before we had.

Those numbers need context with regards to France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy and the USA, it's all well and good including countries that are doing ok.

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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:55 am

There is no way of knowing any percentage of who may have died. I saw that death rates are up 77% on last years week.

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1252603783844106241?s=19

Based on the ons figures.

Anyway, last report flu figures were what, 2k in a year?

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:56 am

JAS wrote:
super_realist wrote:
beninho wrote:I've never said it's the sole point, well don't think so. I have said that it hasn't helped at all, along with many other decisions made by the recent governments. Stop trying to make up your own points to argue against.

That's exactly how it comes across because you never mention anything other than the government, and you ignore that virtually every other government has had similar problems which shows to me that the biggest problem was poor information in the beginning leading to slow decisions.
Why for example have you never criticised WHO? Had we had good information from then we could have reacted far quicker, but apparently its all Boris' fault.

Look every other government has faced the same basic problem I.e. trying to protect its citizens from a horrific pandemic, not only protect its citizens but protect the very fabric of its society, from people, services, economy etc and there IS a balance that does need to be struck although protecting people and saving lives is the obvious priority. Making provision for getting through the hardship induced by the lockdown is important and I still say I have admiration for the bold step Sunak took in setting ideology aside to announce the package he did. Ultimately though, however unfair (due to different demographics etc) each govt will inevitably be judged on their death rate. I read an article at the weekend (not 100% on the exact date of the data but  there were some startling stats revealed on deaths per million of population

Japan 1.9
New Zealand 2.5
Aus 2.7
South Korea 4.6
Greece 10.5
Finland 17
Norway 31
Germany 56
U.K. 241 (yes two hundred and forty one)

The article was emphasising the importance of early action, so while some countries jumped on it immediately we dithered, yes it’s easy to say with hindsight the likes of Cheltenham should have been cancelled. I remember my partner agonising over the Bath half marathon on 16th March. That SHOULD have been cancelled too but it wasn’t, there was no govt direction at that point other than to wash your hands. As it turned out half the field, including my partner had worked it out for themselves that it wasn’t sensible to do it. At that point the Irish had cancelled pretty much all of their St Paddy’s day celebrations so they had clearly collectively got the point before we had.

We've been through this before JAS that there is far more to this than a slow response, which I suspect you know and why you missed out France, Belgium, Spain and Italy from your figures.

Sweden is considerably less than Britain despite virtually no lockdown, so that shows its more than just how quickly you react.

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 10:58 am

beninho wrote:There is no way of knowing any percentage of who may have died. I saw that death rates are up 77% on last years week.

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1252603783844106241?s=19

Based on the ons figures.

Anyway, last report flu figures were what, 2k in a year?
Where are you getting the figures that there is 2000k deaths a year from flu/pneumonia? The link I gave showed that it was close to that every single week.

Of course you don't know if they would have all died, but serious underlying health issues of those that have died usually come with a low life expectancy as espoused by doctors, just as they say about those who have been dying of flu/pneumonia in the same time period.

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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 11:05 am

1692 in 2018/19 for flu. Not sure if the 2019/20 figures have been released yet

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/

Pneumonia I cannot find.

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Post by pedro Wed 22 Apr 2020, 11:09 am

The most contagious in all this (and dangerous in many ways) is panic.

I wasn't talking about UK specifically, but the lock down panic that spread across the world. Yes some countries have strain on their health care system, but others are closing down intensive care units due to too few patients. Here the lock down was too harsh you can argue. Not sure if that is good or bad news in the long run.

OK, I'm no expert, but as a layman I can just see what this panic does to people. It is like some people just ride the panic bandwagon. The same goes with the climate discussion. Not to compare the two, but there is an element of apocalyptic narrative in all this, that some people just feed off.

Letting scientists running the show is dangerous as well. It would just result in a "cover you ass" approach and keep everything locked down for years.

Some politicians use the "we are at war" rhetoric. Well, if we are we need to face the fact that we have to accept casualties and not minimise them at every cost.

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 11:11 am

www.bbc.com/news/health-52361519

Ben, there's been 32000 flu/pneumonia deaths in England and Wales alone this year.

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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 11:12 am

I see your point on panic. It seems that the country has gone a lot further then the government imagined. With kids being taken out of school even if key worker parent. Especially when the advice is pretty woolly on working. Work from home if you can but you can still work.

The country locked down in panic, and the country wont resume because of the same issues, it will take a very long time.

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Post by Soul Requiem Wed 22 Apr 2020, 11:27 am

super_realist wrote:www.bbc.com/news/health-52361519

Ben, there's been 32000 flu/pneumonia deaths in England and Wales alone this year.

The Flu season has either been particularly bad this year or Covid-19 was prevalent way back in early January at which point we were ****** regardless.

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 11:45 am

Soul Requiem wrote:
super_realist wrote:www.bbc.com/news/health-52361519

Ben, there's been 32000 flu/pneumonia deaths in England and Wales alone this year.

The Flu season has either been particularly bad this year or Covid-19 was prevalent way back in early January at which point we were ****** regardless.

Not sure where Ben is getting his figures but in England
2014/15 28330 deaths from flu
2015/16 11,875
2016/17 18009
2017/18 26408
2018/19 1692 ( which is only up to week 15, eg equivalent of last week)

That's England only, does not include pneumonia and is from Public Health England's Surveillance of influenza and other respiratory viruses in the UK.


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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 11:46 am

beninho wrote:1692 in 2018/19 for flu. Not sure if the 2019/20 figures have been released yet

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/

Pneumonia I cannot find.
Those figures are only up to week 15

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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 11:52 am

super_realist wrote:
beninho wrote:1692 in 2018/19 for flu. Not sure if the 2019/20 figures have been released yet

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/

Pneumonia I cannot find.
Those figures are only up to week 15

Well that answers the question.

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 11:53 am

beninho wrote:
super_realist wrote:
beninho wrote:1692 in 2018/19 for flu. Not sure if the 2019/20 figures have been released yet

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/

Pneumonia I cannot find.
Those figures are only up to week 15

Well that answers the question.

So you now accept that considerably more people are dying of flu and pneumonia related conditions?

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Post by JAS Wed 22 Apr 2020, 11:55 am

Soul Requiem wrote:
JAS wrote:
super_realist wrote:
beninho wrote:I've never said it's the sole point, well don't think so. I have said that it hasn't helped at all, along with many other decisions made by the recent governments. Stop trying to make up your own points to argue against.

That's exactly how it comes across because you never mention anything other than the government, and you ignore that virtually every other government has had similar problems which shows to me that the biggest problem was poor information in the beginning leading to slow decisions.
Why for example have you never criticised WHO? Had we had good information from then we could have reacted far quicker, but apparently its all Boris' fault.

Look every other government has faced the same basic problem I.e. trying to protect its citizens from a horrific pandemic, not only protect its citizens but protect the very fabric of its society, from people, services, economy etc and there IS a balance that does need to be struck although protecting people and saving lives is the obvious priority. Making provision for getting through the hardship induced by the lockdown is important and I still say I have admiration for the bold step Sunak took in setting ideology aside to announce the package he did. Ultimately though, however unfair (due to different demographics etc) each govt will inevitably be judged on their death rate. I read an article at the weekend (not 100% on the exact date of the data but  there were some startling stats revealed on deaths per million of population

Japan 1.9
New Zealand 2.5
Aus 2.7
South Korea 4.6
Greece 10.5
Finland 17
Norway 31
Germany 56
U.K. 241 (yes two hundred and forty one)

The article was emphasising the importance of early action, so while some countries jumped on it immediately we dithered, yes it’s easy to say with hindsight the likes of Cheltenham should have been cancelled. I remember my partner agonising over the Bath half marathon on 16th March. That SHOULD have been cancelled too but it wasn’t, there was no govt direction at that point other than to wash your hands. As it turned out half the field, including my partner had worked it out for themselves that it wasn’t sensible to do it. At that point the Irish had cancelled pretty much all of their St Paddy’s day celebrations so they had clearly collectively got the point before we had.

Those numbers need context with regards to France, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy and the USA, it's all well and good including countries that are doing ok.

The article that I quoted from didn’t have those countries however it shouldn’t be too hard the work out if you wanted to draw current comparisons. That being said, current comparisons are mere snapshots of different countries at different stages of the curve. Doing the same comparison at the end (if there is one) will be more interesting. Current the USA won’t look quite as bad on deaths per million of pop at the moment simply because their population is more than 5 times ours. China and India are also multiple times ours.

That then raises a whole extra set of influencing factors like population density, central transport hubs etc. So yes there are many influences which can distort the comparisons and yes our stats might not look as bad compared to Italy, Spain, France BUT I bet ministers in all those countries are looking at the likes of the most comparable on that list, Germany and thinking WTF??

It’s quite easy to get lost in stats and statistical arguments but the bottom line is that we all have to take responsibility for our own health and our own safety & protection, government advice and direction should be helpful in that, in a crisis like this government should be leading with pronouncements on how to keep ourselves protected, in a sense they are (now) but we simply cannot say they never dithered for at least a couple of weeks and that couple of weeks has turned out to be very very costly in terms of lives.


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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 11:59 am

You can't do a valid comparison really because you can't put a value on the impact that a million other aspects which affect the death rate of each individual country, for example comparing Ireland to the UK would be stupid for very obvious reasons.
Sweden are still dithering and have far less deaths than the UK, so dithering is clearly only a part of the UK issue. A valid one, but not something everyone should be hanging on as if it is the only thing that matters.
Take London out of the UK for example, and New York out of USA and see how that affects the values.


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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 11:59 am

Obviously a lot more then what I read it as.

Though, still less of an issue compared to covid in general. And even taking the 30k pretty similar figures overall though obviously covid over a much shorter timeframe.

I don't think we can downplay covid by saying people also die of flu, especially as we have stats of 77% more deaths on a weekly comparison.

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 12:01 pm

beninho wrote:Obviously a lot more then what I read it as.

Though, still less of an issue compared to covid in general.  And even taking the 30k pretty similar figures overall though obviously covid over a much shorter timeframe.

I don't think we can downplay covid by saying people also die of flu, especially as we have stats of 77% more deaths on a weekly comparison.

I'm not trying to down play Coronavirus, just that the number of deaths is secondary to the strain a higher infection rate would put on services, that's the big issue, not really the number who are dying, tragic as it is for them and their families.
Also the stats I've seen relate to Coronavirus being responsible for an increase of a third, not three quarters.

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Post by Soul Requiem Wed 22 Apr 2020, 12:04 pm

JAS wrote:
The article that I quoted from didn’t have those countries however it shouldn’t be too hard the work out if you wanted to draw current comparisons. That being said, current comparisons are mere snapshots of different countries at different stages of the curve. Doing the same comparison at the end (if there is one) will be more interesting. Current the USA won’t look quite as bad on deaths per million of pop at the moment  simply because their population is more than 5 times ours. China and India are also multiple times ours.  

That then raises a whole extra set of influencing factors like population density, central transport hubs etc. So yes there are many influences which can distort the comparisons and yes our stats might not look as bad compared to Italy, Spain, France BUT I bet ministers in all those countries are looking at the likes of the most comparable on that list, Germany and thinking WTF??

It’s quite easy to get lost in stats and statistical arguments  but the bottom line is that we all have to take responsibility for our own health and our own safety & protection, government advice and direction should be helpful in that, in a crisis like this government should be leading with pronouncements on how to keep ourselves protected, in a sense they are (now) but we simply cannot say they never dithered for at least a couple of weeks and that couple of weeks has turned out to be very very costly in terms of lives.


Germany does intrigue me. I can find overall death rates for the UK, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium etc. but not Germany, there are murmurings that they are recording Covid-19 deaths differently to the aforementioned but that is nothing more than internet hearsay at the moment. The majority of European countries are seeing very similar spikes in deaths (no mention of coronavirus on death certificate) so I wonder if Germany are too and to what degree.

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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 12:13 pm

Regarding Germany and how it records Andrew Neill made a claim on twitter about how they reported it. But he then came back and admitted it was being reported the same as us.

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Post by JAS Wed 22 Apr 2020, 12:35 pm

beninho wrote:Regarding Germany and how it records Andrew Neill made a claim on twitter about how they reported it. But  he then came back and admitted it was being reported the same as us.

The other thing worth mentioning about Germany is that since this started Merkels approval rating has jumped quite significantly (and it really had been abysmal) so they must be getting something right. Yes I know Johnson’s rating has also risen albeit from a higher starting point but there will be the fact that he’s had it and beat it factored into that. Meanwhile Kim Jong Uns approval rating remains stuck at 100% despite going to ground over the past week!!

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 12:51 pm

Rather curiously Starmer has done the impossible and has an approval rating below Corbyn. I didn't think that was possible

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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 1:12 pm

Starmer looked very good against Raab, but hard, I guess because Raab is a ridiculous muppet.

But, it's good to see a working opposition start the fight back.

Also, working at hone means bacon sandwich for lunch! Boom.

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Post by dynamark Wed 22 Apr 2020, 1:12 pm

I'm glad I havnt had the flu recently based on those numbers.
My angle is that we loose a lot of folk each week from all manner of things.68 mill population means best part of 800,000 a year.General health issues being a big part
The current situation seems to point to more death from a lot of other issues while we are taking the covid on,cancelled stuff and probably folk not wanting to call on NHS.Not a good outcome but we all have try to look after ourselves health/exercise and when its time its time.

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Post by Soul Requiem Wed 22 Apr 2020, 1:17 pm

beninho wrote:Starmer looked very good against Raab, but hard, I guess because Raab is a ridiculous muppet.

But, it's good to see a working opposition start the fight back.

Also, working at hone means bacon sandwich for lunch! Boom.

Looked very good? Interesting take, looked like a man out of his depth to me, I actually quite Starmer but he appears to lack the mental dexterity for leadership. It's a crying shame that the Labour membership in its infinite wisdom would and have ignored Yvette Cooper and Hillary Benn.

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Post by super_realist Wed 22 Apr 2020, 1:21 pm

Soul Requiem wrote:
beninho wrote:Starmer looked very good against Raab, but hard, I guess because Raab is a ridiculous muppet.

But, it's good to see a working opposition start the fight back.

Also, working at hone means bacon sandwich for lunch! Boom.

Looked very good? Interesting take, looked like a man out of his depth to me, I actually quite Starmer but he appears to lack the mental dexterity for leadership. It's a crying shame that the Labour membership in its infinite wisdom would and have ignored Yvette Cooper and Hillary Benn.

If you're used to watching Corbyn flapping around like a fish on the bank then anyone looks good.

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Post by beninho Wed 22 Apr 2020, 1:37 pm

Soul Requiem wrote:
beninho wrote:Starmer looked very good against Raab, but hard, I guess because Raab is a ridiculous muppet.

But, it's good to see a working opposition start the fight back.

Also, working at hone means bacon sandwich for lunch! Boom.

Looked very good? Interesting take, looked like a man out of his depth to me, I actually quite Starmer but he appears to lack the mental dexterity for leadership. It's a crying shame that the Labour membership in its infinite wisdom would and have ignored Yvette Cooper and Hillary Benn.

Think your letting your views cloud your judgements on that. You think Starmer lacks quickness and alertness. Obviously something you dont need to become a high level barrister. When I watch them in court it's very impressive no matter if it's against me.

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Post by Soul Requiem Wed 22 Apr 2020, 1:42 pm

beninho wrote:
Think your letting your views cloud your judgements on that. You think Starmer lacks quickness and alertness. Obviously something you dont need to become a high level barrister. When I watch them in court it's very impressive no matter if it's against me.

I think he's very good at what he did but that doesn't translate into politics, he comes across as another paint by numbers politician whom would be better suited a specific cabinet position rather than leadership.

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