Rest of the World

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Duty281 wrote:

JDizzle wrote:

Duty281 wrote:So the most likely scenario is an Australia/New Zealand final at Lord's.

There are many things wrong with the WTC - points system is convulsed and perhaps not particularly fair - but Test cricket at neutral venues is something worth getting excited about! Shame it is only one game.

Yeah, I can't personally say that I am a fan of the WTC. The points system doesn't work properly, fixtures are of unequal value and weighting, and boiling an entire test championship down to one solitary fixture to decide the winner doesn't seem right to me.

That said, I think that Australia and New Zealand are the two best test teams in the world right now and, if that is the final, it would be the right fixture. A shame, as you say, that it's only one game and not, at least, a three-game series.

The current system is a temporary fudge to get around the unforseen situation and make the best of whatever fixtures could be fulfilled.

Had it gone to plan all the teams wouldve played home and away fixtures and had equal opportunities to earn points. That hasnt been the case, but at the same time I dont think anyone can argue theres not a clear top 3 teams with England sat just behind them and the rest of the world a significant step back from that.

One off game may be a bit unfair in that the toss could well play a major part in deciding it, but its always been about providing a focused big televised event rather than genuine competition. However the remaining fixtures pan out we should end up with two teams who deserve to be in the final even if New Zealand have just played at home. A long series in a neutral country just isn't viable in the modern calendar or that interesting to anything other than the hardcore fans.

Kohli's inning was a labored one.....I think yet again he was reading rhe length & movement of the ball late
And hence getting into position a bit late, and not able to play strokes freely.
Look at Rahane in contrast getting into position early, playing strokes freely and handsomely .
Fingers crossed , I wish Rahane converts this tomm.
Dean Elgar looks like in a 9 to 5 job...flat seemingly little excitement captaincy and in a hurry to get overs in and not take even a dollar of salary cut in fine.
But to be fair have seen just a day of his captaincy
Rabada and Ngidi were a yard slower than I have seen them before .
A good day for India against a SA only firing 2/3rd I think.

Didn't get to watch the first day but I am not too surprised by the score. As Kingraf says , SA are coming in a bit cold ; and in any case I have far more confidence in this Indian team and their ability to perform overseas than even some of their supporters ! They can stumble (36 in Adelaide , a loss in England in between the strong wins) but they tend to get the eventual results lately.

Lot of cricket to be played but this looks a good start.

By the way : if you India fans don't want Kohli or Rahane I think England would be happy to accept a transfer

It's happens quite often that on many of the few occasions that we work ourselves into a position of strength early enuf in an oversea test.....rain intervenes

Well one day lost should give India the confidence to bat freely and aim.to bat 2 more sessions , 200 runs and hope they can enforce follow on.

Once upon a time there was a rule in 4 day games follow on difference was 150 runs

KP_fan wrote:It's happens quite often that on many of the few occasions that we work ourselves into a position  of strength early enuf in an oversea test.....rain intervenes

Well one day lost should give India the confidence to bat freely and aim.to bat 2 more sessions , 200 runs and hope they can enforce follow on.

Once upon a time there was a rule in  4 day games follow on difference was 150 runs

Still is , I think ? Should be 150 now , in this game.  Pitch seems to be good though so bowling SA out cheaply may not be easy. Though I am not sure if that only applies when the first day is washed out ? Should have a look at the laws I suppose...

England fans may think it is a pity that sort of rain never seems to arrive when they're getting battered in Australia

alfie wrote:

KP_fan wrote:It's happens quite often that on many of the few occasions that we work ourselves into a position  of strength early enuf in an oversea test.....rain intervenes

Well one day lost should give India the confidence to bat freely and aim.to bat 2 more sessions , 200 runs and hope they can enforce follow on.

Once upon a time there was a rule in  4 day games follow on difference was 150 runs

Still is , I think ? Should be 150 now , in this game.  Pitch seems to be good though so bowling SA out cheaply may not be easy. Though I am not sure if that only applies when the first day is washed out ? Should have a look at the laws I suppose...

England fans may think it is a pity that sort of rain never seems to arrive when they're getting battered in Australia

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the match has to be reduced to 4 days when it starts for the 150 runs bit to apply.

Yeah , have checked now , that is correct : has to be first day washout for a change to the 150 run rule. Sorry , KP_fan you will just have to get a 200 run lead

pitch has truined faster, SA bowlers got their radars working and the tail-ender in Ashwin become evident .
Does not get into the line of the ball....always stays legside of the ball and flays

And the feared Flakiness of Indian batting evident

Did think much of Day one's toothlessness was rust, as evidenced by Rabada bowling a metric ton of no balls. But it must be said, India have thrown their wickets away for sport today.

kingraf wrote:Did think much of Day one's toothlessness was rust, as evidenced by Rabada bowling a metric ton of no balls. But it must be said, India have thrown their wickets away for sport today.

It was thoroughly expected...read my prognosis and fears before the start
they are carrying a long tail and 3 out of form specialist batters

And wait until the 2nd inning when Rahul & Mayank fail....we will be bowled out for a 120.....and if weather leaves enuf overs...hand out a win to SA

If you are going to win in four days 330 or whatever is going to have to be enough. Too much time getting 400 plus and you're probably setting up for a draw.

I'm not so sure. Assuming South Africa don't capitulate first gun, which is possible, the road map for an Indian victory seems slightly complicated. If South Africa get to the second new ball, best case scenario for India is an 80-odd lead which then needs maybe another 250 runs to get to a safe total. Best case scenario then is SA needing 300-odd with 80-90 overs to go. For South Africa the plan is much more simple, albeit unlikely- Bat five sessions, and see if India collapse at the sight of having to save the Test.

In any event, with a few more sessions apparently being at risk of being rained out I think a draw is the most likely scenario either way

All factors considered....I see following as the mots likely script
SA will come withing about 50 to 70 runs of Indian score in their first inning
Ind will collapse for a 120 odd in second
leaving SA 170 - 190 ish to chase in the 4th inning

This pitch has proper come to life. We're gonna get rolled for 150 at best.

Yup pitch has become almost Melbournesque
Bumrah down and done his ankle.....waiting to hear how serious it is

30/3. Be lucky to get a 100 on this deck. 270/3 day one. 80/11 day three.

pitch is seaming and with bounce ...and sometimes kicking off a length
4 down and yes ...327 seems like Mt Everest for now

SA seem to be going well

Not watching ; but it would seem those of you who have been are doing about as well at predicting the likely course of the game as the pundits being criticized on the other thread...

alfie wrote:SA seem to be going well

Not watching ; but it would seem those of you who have been are doing about as well at predicting the likely course of the game as the pundits being criticized on the other thread...

It's not a bad situation to err on the side of pessimism and worst hopes and then come out "happy to be proven wrong"

KP_fan wrote:

alfie wrote:SA seem to be going well

Not watching ; but it would seem those of you who have been are doing about as well at predicting the likely course of the game as the pundits being criticized on the other thread...

It's not a bad situation to err on the side of pessimism and worst hopes and then come out "happy to be proven wrong"

Nice try KP_Fan

After day one you were prescribing another 200 and enforce the follow on.
After a clatter of wickets it became all out 120 second innings and doom and gloom.
Now ???

I mean even a stopped clock is right twice a day !


Don't worry I am just teasing

Still can't really see this not being a draw to be honest, so I'm not quite ready to concede. Day five will be showers from the second session on, and we could lose an hour or two tomorrow.

Indeed a bit early to call the result. Only four down still and it isn't as if this is England batting

alfie wrote:

KP_fan wrote:

alfie wrote:SA seem to be going well

Not watching ; but it would seem those of you who have been are doing about as well at predicting the likely course of the game as the pundits being criticized on the other thread...

It's not a bad situation to err on the side of pessimism and worst hopes and then come out "happy to be proven wrong"

Nice try KP_Fan

After day one you were prescribing another 200 and enforce the follow on.
After a clatter of wickets it became all out 120 second innings and doom and gloom.
Now ???

I mean even a stopped clock is right twice a day !


Don't worry I am just teasing

The pitches in Melbourne and have quickened with bounce of f a length which is uncharacteristic...and has thrown predicting out of the window

Pitch seems to have calmed down with the ball softening - probably not a coincidence. Just as I say that Quinny hits a big six straight. 90/4. First target is avoiding the follow on.

Ashwin thoroughly ineffective and Thakur bowling well within himself
Someone has asked him to bowl line and length...while in his natural self he can be an enforcer and more aggressive

QDK is such a good batter to watch when he is in full flow. Always looks to have so much time and is in a beautiful rythmn. Glorious.

JDizzle wrote:QDK is such a good batter to watch when he is in full flow. Always looks to have so much time and is in a beautiful rythmn. Glorious.

That was a good jinx

It does seem that much like day one with the ball, South Africa have been caught ill-prepared with the bat. It shouldn't happen, but the domestic scene has been pretty stop-start with the Omicron virus, and then we just haven't played any red-ball stuff internationally for six months now.

112/5 and I think if South Africa can get the deficit down to less than 150, and ideally less than 100, in combination with the weather, this should peter out to a bore draw.

South Africa 144-7 as Bavuma who has held it together up to now, is gone to Shami to give his 4th.

Rabada of late in tests, have been adding some lower order batting value. India would be hoping this won't be one of those days. Jansen can surely bat, and Rabada's promotion ahead of Keshav Maharaj who is far better than a number 10 is a recognition of his recent batting successes. So the job surely, isn't yet done for the Indian bowlers.

Ashwin is thoroughly ineffective & Thakur expensive and Bumrah down

Rabada already beginning to hurt India. Young Jansen seems determined to begin better with bat than he did with the ball on debut. Not for the first time, a lower order partnership is threatening to undo the fine work by the Indian bowlers. With the weather being trouble for at least one of the remaining days, India would want to rap this innings up pretty quick. Rabada and co seem to have other ideas.

kingraf wrote:It does seem that much like day one with the ball, South Africa have been caught ill-prepared with the bat. It shouldn't happen, but the domestic scene has been pretty stop-start with the Omicron virus, and then we just haven't played any red-ball stuff internationally for six months now.

112/5 and I think if South Africa can get the deficit down to less than 150, and ideally less than 100, in combination with the weather, this should peter out to a bore draw.  

Deficit is now 150. Rabada and Jansen have batted ably to get the team to 177/7. They'll be dreaming of a double digit deficit now, at which point, still far away I guess, you'd think only an Indian collapse could force a result either way.

Ashwin has been really ineffective on this pitch and confirms why Jadeja is a better option or Washington would have been was he fit...both being superior batsmen and would have done no worse than Ashwin with ball

Thakur is a wkt taking bowler...his SR must be high and his avg only 23 inspite of being only medium fast

India with a 130 run lead. Pretty much guarantees they can't lose, I don't think. The road map to an Indian victory, I believe requires South Africa to be batting halfway into the second session tomorrow - So that likely means India scoring 180-200 runs in the next two sessions, which after surviving the new ball, shouldn't be that much of an issue. At which point with a 330 run lead, Kohli has to decide if he will play normally, ie regardless of the forecast, which means he'll probably want a target closer to 400, or if he believes the forecast (which to be fair, says 100% chance of rain), and put South Africa in. That would give him, if the forecast is correct 2.5 sessions to bowl South Africa out.

If the weather ruins the last day, can't really see a result from here, other than a draw. But its advantage India as of now, the lead already 146. Even if they manage another 100 tomorrow, the South Africans would then need 250, and if the conditions stay the same, then it won't be an easy chace.
Think India should play normal cricket more or less. Do keep an eye on the weather, but no need to do anything silly, like over-attacking in the first session tomorrow, or a silly declaration if it comes to it.

So Ajinkya Rahane continued his pathetic resumption record, KL Rahul also didn't manage to start all over again. The only one in the lower order who looked like scoring runs was Bumrah!
Bumrah was excellent to start with and it was a setback that he got injured early in the innings. Though he later returned, hope there wouldn't be any lasting issues... Shami was outstanding and deserved his 5for. Siraj offered decent support. Thakur needs to be more disciplined, gave away too many easy runs, but he has this ability to pick up wickets against the run of play, and if his batting clicks, then its a fine package he brings to the game.

R Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja can't any longer be compared as all-rounders, the latter is clearly superior with his fine enough bowling abilities and currently significantly superior batting. But Ashwin surely is better of the 2 spinners, and on just the basis of this one day I surely wouldn't write him off. Washington Sundar is more of a lower middle order batting all-rounder at this stage of his career. He is not really in the Ashwin Jadeja class as a spinner. Jadeja over Ashwin if we go in with only 1 spinner because that's what the combination demands. The only way Ashwin can be picked ahead of Jadeja as the single spinner is if Hardik Pandya plays as the 4th seamer, or Venkatesh Iyer evolves into a test quality bat who can bowl 10-15 overs per innings. Both scenarios don't seem to be materializing, so Ashwin will have to settle for this back-up to Jadeja role in overseas conditions. He does have this series to rediscover his overseas batting capabilities, that meant he batted at 6 during the previous South Africa tour...

India had a flaky batting,  collapsed in a heap on D2, Bumrah was down, Ashwin was totally ineffective
And yet at the end of D2 (D3 technically ) I find India significantly ahead in the game.

From this point Indian win or draw are most likely scenarios.
SA win scenario  emerges if Ind bats fast and gets bowled out  or declares , planning for rain
And Rain does  not arrive

Shami was brilliant . In these conditions if he gets his radar,  line and length right...he is hard to play.
THAKUR gets wickets and I think he should express himself more bowling faster ones and bouncer as he is capable of . And he has been sent at No.3....he ain't a night watchman but promoted as an aggressive batsman at No.3 to set momentum

Not a bad position  from and Indian fan's POV
If India still screw up from here we will blame Kohli, and ask for his head  

53/2 now so the lead is out over 180. Pretty cautious start today , but still plenty of time to ramp it up ahead of a declaration.

Timing might be tricky there given the weather doubts . As KP_fan says , whatever doesn't go well can be blamed on Kohli

Really hope the weather doesn't totally mess up this game.

alfie wrote:53/2 now so the lead is out over 180.  Pretty cautious start today , but still plenty of time to ramp it up ahead of a declaration.

Timing might be tricky there given the weather doubts . As KP_fan says , whatever doesn't go well can be blamed on Kohli

Really hope the weather doesn't totally mess up this game.

Speak for yourself. I need that rain both for national pride and because I need my 7.5 bet on the draw to pay out.

kingraf wrote:

alfie wrote:53/2 now so the lead is out over 180.  Pretty cautious start today , but still plenty of time to ramp it up ahead of a declaration.

Timing might be tricky there given the weather doubts . As KP_fan says , whatever doesn't go well can be blamed on Kohli

Really hope the weather doesn't totally mess up this game.

Speak for yourself. I need that rain both for national pride and because I need my 7.5 bet on the draw to pay out.

I am not altogether ruling out a SA win though , raf ! Just would prefer a proper finish rather than a limp wash out...

Can't really see how we win tbh. It's strange because Markram and Elgar probably have one of the higher averages amongst openers today, while QdK is a known match winner, and our lower order, as mentioned previously has gotten into the habit of scoring key runs. But out numbers 3-5 have one Test hundred between them, and the result is all too often that we're behind the 8-ball. So unless India collapse for 100 from here, I don't see a win.

Crazy Kohli declaration ?

Over the years of watching ...I have developed a belief that 3rd inning a a test match is easiest in terms of pressure.

On the match itself......Currently Ind on a lead of 210 going into lunch.
15s and 20s from most of the batsmen will get India to sufficient.
I hope they accelerate and score 120 in next session....bowled out or declare
330 would be a very tough chase for SA ...will give India reasonable time to bowl SA out even if there is some rain......
And should it not rain enuf and SA bat well enuf to chase down 330 .....well then Well played SA

Hmm.  Bit of a collapse. Six out now and just 245 ahead. India motoring along though and might think they already have enough ?

Ball is quite routinely now kicking off a length...making batting hard
15s and 20s from Indian batsmen have been handy in getting what looks like a big lead....281-on with 3 in hand ....will get past 300 I think.

Umpiring has not be great the two ct behind's of Ashwin given.....first over turned and second I am not sure was anywhere close to conclusive that the ball had gone off the handle...could have been well off the arm guard
Hot spot missed


Kohli labored again and failed to pick the length of the ball again.....Rahane looked fluid and fluent....Pujara unlucky to be caught down leg side

SA has a lot of skills but lacking the tightness and discipline that Aus-NZ-Eng and Ind show based on match conditions

India have enough, but a captain hasn't been born that would declare with a 290 lead. India going to do him a favour and be all out, which I think is the right decision for their prospects of winning the match. There's a chance of rain in an hour, and it's almost certainly going to pour tomorrow, so they really do need to get on with it

Good, attacking cricket from India. Pant played some fantastic shots in that innings of 34.

Time for India to declare, they've got more than enough.

Lead of 300 should be plenty , no ? Think Bumrah would rather be out there with ball in hand than dodging bouncers now...

alfie wrote:Lead of 300 should be plenty , no ?  Think Bumrah would rather be out there with ball in hand than dodging bouncers now...

You'd think so, but I think every captain has it in the back of their mind that the rain might never come and then he's got to answer why he declared with a 300 run lead with 140 overs to go if they lose. Especially Kohli, who seems to be in the middle of (and losing!) a power struggle.