URC Round 1

URC Round 1 fixtures

Treviso vs Glasgow 16th Sept 5.30pm
Zebre vs Leinster 17th Sept 1pm
Cardiff vs Munster 17th Sept 3.05pm
Lions vs Bulls 17th Sept 3.05pm
Scarlets vs Ospreys 17th Sept 5.15pm
Ulster vs Connacht 17th Sept 7.35pm
Edinburgh vs Dragons 17th Sept 7.35pm

**Sharks vs Stormers is being played on the 3rd Feb 2023

Feel free to post predictions or team news on this thread

At a guess I can see the following wins this weekend:-

1. Treviso - think they will edge Glasgow at home.
2. Leinster - Zebre would have to pull out the win of a century on this one. Probably the one fixture this weekend I would safely bank a BP win.
3. Cardiff - Munster didn't look great in preseason but neither did Cardiff. Still going with a home win though given they managed to beat Leinster at home last year. Less than a score.
4. Bulls - Lions have lost some key players in the off season. Bulls have to much for them I think. BP win for the Bulls.
5. No idea - could go either way. I'll tip the Ospreys. Less than a score.
6. Ulster - Connacht have their work cut out. Ulster are too strong at home and the missing players for Connacht this week are some key players for them. Ulster to win this comfortably with a BP.
7. Dragons - Purely based on me being a fan. On form and on paper everything points to a Edinburgh win. But I will back my side on the basis that we might catch them cold based on their early pre season form. Less than a score.

I'll probably hang fire on predicting an inevitable Dragons win until I see the teamsheets.

Munster have a few key players particularly one RG Snyman who, almost unbelievably is out injured with a knee problem. Has to be one of the most expensive minutes for euro signings ever made in Irish rugby.

Gavin Coombes (groin), Andrew Conway (knee), and ack Daly (knee) are also out for the southern province. Cardiff Blues won't be disappointed.

Connacht, on the other hand, are probably regretting asking for a short stay on home matches at the Sportsground until their new 4G pitch beds in over next couple of weeks. They've got Ulster away, then SA tour against Stormers and Bulls, then back home to play Munster and then Leinster at the Sportsground. Just what you need to get your season off to a stuttering start. if they manage to pull off a win or gain a few points from those first five matches, they'll be lucky.

The Emerging Ireland squad will be named tomorrow so Ulster will know if they'll be down a few key players or not, but should win at home against the western province.

Benetton at home might be good enough to hold off Glasgow, but Edinburgh should have enough at home for a victory against Dragons.

Bulls should win despite not being at home.

Bulls game is in Feb (durning the 6 nations) as well is it not, no SA teams play this weekend, as player are on international duty, thought it was good planing by the URC

Kingshu wrote:Bulls game is in Feb (durning the 6 nations) as well is it not, no SA teams play this weekend, as player are on international duty, thought it was good planing by the URC

You're quite right, Kingshu, except that only applies to Stormers and Sharks now, according to revised URC schedule on website. Vodacom URC tweeting about round 1 includes Lions v Bulls match.

The in-window games keep coming.

Leinster being lined up to face Chile who have qualified for the RWC and are looking for game time during the Nov window.

Leo Cullen wants to give his less-experienced players more game time and are proposing to host the game at 6,000 capacity Donnybrook Stadium, their original stamping ground before RDS that's now used for Leinster Schools Rugby as well being home ground for amateur clubs, Bective Rangers and Old Wesley.

Should be a good match if it comes off.

Dragons probably won’t win away, but they should ride the positivity wave for a while and have a go at least. Backline could be dangerous, but need pack to go well. Depends on the strength of the teams. Dragons might be almost full strength

Pot Hale wrote:The in-window games keep coming.

Leinster being lined up to face Chile who have qualified for the RWC and are looking for game time during the Nov window.

Leo Cullen wants to give his less-experienced players more game time and are proposing to host the game at 6,000 capacity Donnybrook Stadium, their original stamping ground before RDS that's now used for Leinster Schools Rugby as well being home ground for amateur clubs, Bective Rangers and Old Wesley.  

Should be a good match if it comes off.

That's a great idea if the fixture comes to pass. It's such a unique opportunity/event they should theme-it, get the embassy involved, select some common charitable cause for donations and have a donation drive. Just don't have it as a poorly marketed and attended, non-recorded, non-streamed match that reads as an after-thought in the 'in-other-news' section of a sports back page.

Connacht start is a real bad start for them. I don't think Zebre's opening rounds look good for them either.

Lions have a tough draw as well starting out. Really wouldnt be surprised to see all 3 of them make up the bottom 3 after round 5

Kingshu wrote:Bulls game is in Feb (durning the 6 nations) as well is it not, no SA teams play this weekend, as player are on international duty, thought it was good planing by the URC

It was originally. I'm guessing they brought it forward as neither Bulls or Lions actually provide that many players to South Africa.

Welshmushroom wrote:At a guess I can see the following wins this weekend:-

1. Treviso - think they will edge Glasgow at home. I think Treviso were one of the most improved sides last season, Glasgow have struggled away against them, General Franco has been talking about playing the first block of fixtures without our international players and ignoring the results. It all points to a big win for Glasgow.
2. Leinster - Zebre would have to pull out the win of a century on this one.  Probably the one fixture this weekend I would safely bank a BP win. I still expect Zebre to show more backbone than Glasgow did at the end of last season.
3. Cardiff - Munster didn't look great in preseason but neither did Cardiff.  Still going with a home win though given they managed to beat Leinster at home last year. Less than a score. A real chance for Cardiff to get off to a positive start. It's not as if anyone on these boards would enjoy Munster starting with a loss.
4. Bulls - Lions have lost some key players in the off season.  Bulls have to much for them I think. BP win for the Bulls.
5. No idea - could go either way.  I'll tip the Ospreys. Less than a score. No idea - could go either way. i may save that for summing up most of the Welsh derbies this season.
6. Ulster - Connacht have their work cut out.  Ulster are too strong at home and the missing players for Connacht this week are some key players for them.  Ulster to win this comfortably with a BP.Ulster could be pushing Leinster for the top Irish side this season.
7. Dragons - Purely based on me being a fan.  On form and on paper everything points to a Edinburgh win.  But I will back my side on the basis that we might catch them cold based on their early pre season form.  Less than a score.

As kevin Keegan said, "I would love it just love it if " surely the Dragoons can beat the Luvvies.

Connachts games are actually pretty good, considering they will have to play those teams at some point, Ulster undercooked having missed last preseaon game, trip to SA when they will be missing their internationals, they Leinster and Munster at home when they are missing their emerging Ireland players. Difficult games but prob the best time they could play them.

Looks like the Welsh sides will have the majority of their internationals back for the season opener. We will still be without Halfpenny & Owens, who are due back next month, & Samson Lee who isn't expected back until next year - such a shame for a player who was immense before he did his Achilles.

Kingshu wrote:Ulster undercooked having missed last preseaon game, trip to SA when they will be missing their internationals, they Leinster and Munster at home when they are missing their emerging Ireland players.

What a league.

Lots of teams undercooked because of cancelled games not just Ulster.

The Irish Internationals are only missing 1 game so will be available for the SA tour.

Of the Emerging Ireland team only Baloucoune is a guaranteed starter

It will be challenging but Id be more worried about injuries than players missing because of Ireland representation


Also nothing to do with the league

geoff999rugby wrote:Lots of teams undercooked because of cancelled games not just Ulster.

The Irish Internationals are only missing 1 game so will be available for the SA tour.

Of the Emerging Ireland team only Baloucoune is a guaranteed starter

It will be challenging but Id be more worried about injuries than players missing because of Ireland representation


Also nothing to do with the league

It's completely everything to do with the league, as they allow Unions to run it, and own teams - who then take their players on a tour in the middle of it.

This tour wouldn't have happened during European cup rounds, and you really need to give your head a wobble if you don't understand why.

1. Glasgow on the road in their shield/pool/whatever lay down a marker.

2. Leinster - Few will believe me when I say that Zebre have a chance against Leinster this weekend, but Zebre have a chance. Leinster are vulnerable in the first 2-3 rounds of games historically, Zebre have had turgid 0-3 results against Leinster out in Italy in the past, a refreshed Zebre side is a bit of an unknown quantity. I'm going for Leinster, but to be far closer than people might expect.

3. Munster - Munster get a non-TBP victory on the road, Cardiff stay within a score.

4. Bulls - Bulls have too much, get the TBP

5. Ospreys lose to Scarlets by more than a score. TBP to both. Cracking game. Here's wishing

6. Ulster - TBP at home, Connacht lose by more than a score so no LBP

7. Edinburgh - Take out Dragons by margin more than a score.

RugbyFan100 wrote:
It's completely everything to do with the league, as they allow Unions to run it, and own teams -  who then take their players on a tour in the middle of it.

This tour wouldn't have happened during European cup rounds, and you really need to give your head a wobble if you don't understand why.

So it is how the league was set up that is the problem as you see it.

It seems to me your beef is with the Unions then rather than how the league is administered.

From last seasons end table what we can be sure of is that 10 wins will be needed to make the top 8 and around 10 Bonus Points to go with it. Ospreys managed 10 wins out of 18 but only managed 6 Bonus Points in the season. Glasgow one spot above them got 10.

So a 100% home record with 1 away win and getting a combination of 10 BP through tries and losing margins will probably see you there.

Team for Treviso and Glasgow:-

Glasgow Warriors: 15 Cole Forbes, 14 Sebastian Cancelliere, 13 Sione Tuipulotu, 12 Stafford McDowall, 11 Kyle Steyn (c), 10 Tom Jordan, 9 George Horne, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Matt Fagerson, 6 Sintu Manjezi, 5 Richie Gray, 4 Lewis Bean, 3 Lucio Sordoni, 2 Fraser Brown, 1 Jamie Bhatt
Replacements: 16 Johnny Matthews, 17 Oli Kebble, 18 Zander Fagerson, 19 Scott Cummings, 20 Rory Darge, 21 Thomas Gordon, 22 Ali Price, 23 Duncan Weir

Benetton: 15 Rhyno Smith, 14 Edoardo Padovani, 13 Ignacio Brex, 12 Joaquin Riera, 11 Ignacio Mendy, 10 Giacomo Da Re, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage (c), 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Giovanni Pettinelli, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Scott Scrafton, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 1 Ivan Nemer
Replacements: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Federico Zani, 18 Tiziano Pasquali, 19 Niccolò Cannone, 20 Michele Lamaro, 21 Sam Hidalgo-Clyne, 22 Marco Zanon, 23 Mattia Bellini


Treviso looking like they are rolling out plenty of their internationals. I can see a Glasgow loss coming.

Strong side for Ospreys tomorrow. On the whole, it’s some bench too. Six quality front rows. They should really do well, when the internationals are there. To be fair, probably 3/4 Welsh teams look strong. Dragons not too bad, but I don’t overly like the bench.

Zebre while dissaapointed would have taken that result before the game. Hopefully a sign of their improved squad. Leinster get a TBP as expected.

Good character that, by the sounds.

Not a bad start by Cardiff. Munster will probably be pretty happy at 5-3 currently.

Liam Williams injured. Not good news.

Not good. Did Owen Lane pull out before KO? He seems quite injury prone too.

Yeah, rolled his ankle or something.

Max Llewellyn looks decent.

Definitely looks decent.

Liam Williams broken collarbone, according to scrum v.

Great to see Faletau playing well. Shame it’s ten miles down the road ha

If Munster win this I'd be shocked. Cardiff playing well

Well done Cardiff. Munster's handling was poor and missed the test players

I heard Snyman was injured, just wondered if it was the same knee? If so then it’s not a good sign.

Turnball and Davies are such a poor lock combo. How on earth they decided Josh should be captain I don’t know.

Same old for Dragons.

Good win foe Edinburgh

Drags had the better of the first half then imploded!

Dean Ryan did not sound best pleased.

Dean Ryan’s barmy army.

RiscaGame wrote:Dean Ryan’s barmy army.

fixed that for you

How do Dragons actually look worse?

Lots of signings may take time to bed in and Edinburgh are a good side. Better to have a slow start and good finish to the season than what happened last year.

thebandwagonsociety wrote:1. Glasgow on the road in their shield/pool/whatever lay down a marker.

2. Leinster - Few will believe me when I say that Zebre have a chance against Leinster this weekend, but Zebre have a chance. Leinster are vulnerable in the first 2-3 rounds of games historically, Zebre have had turgid 0-3 results against Leinster out in Italy in the past, a refreshed Zebre side is a bit of an unknown quantity. I'm going for Leinster, but to be far closer than people might expect.

3. Munster - Munster get a non-TBP victory on the road, Cardiff stay within a score.

4. Bulls - Bulls have too much, get the TBP

5. Ospreys lose to Scarlets by more than a score. TBP to both. Cracking game. Here's wishing

6. Ulster - TBP at home, Connacht lose by more than a score so no LBP

7. Edinburgh - Take out Dragons by margin more than a score.

1 - Glasgow did lay down a marker with an emphatic loss 33-11. I was wrong
2 - Leinster but far closer than people would have thought 29-33. I was right
3 - Cardiff with good start to the season, Munster LBP 20-13. I was wrong
4 - Bulls with a TBP 15-31. I was right
5 - A draw with Scarlets 2 tries to Ospreys 3. 23-23. I was wrong
6 - Ulster 6 tries, no LBP for Connacht 36-10. I was right
7 - Edinburgh by more than a score 44-6. I was right

Right on 4, wrong on 3. On the 3 I was wrong, I overhyped the road team to do a job on the road looking at teams more than factoring in venues maybe. On the rights, Leinster and Bulls winning on the road aren't that much of a shock, Ulster have had Connachts number in Ravenhill for quite a while and Dragons have to prove it at home first before they start getting any predictions for picking up road victories in the league.

Random stat for the opening round. Leinster conceded 28 points but managed to win the game. The largest points conceding by any other winning side in the round was 15 points by the Bulls.

Did the Bulls score 4 tries;

https://www.unitedrugby.com/match-centre/202201/united-rugby-championship/emirates-lions-vs-vodacom-bulls-2022-09-17/271780

this link has 4 tries (2 in the 3rd minute)

Whereas the bbc table doesn't give them a TBP?

https://www.bbc.com/sport/rugby-union/pro-tournament/table

Link is wrong, only 3 tries, Coetzee did score in 3rd min but only 1 try

thebandwagonsociety wrote:

thebandwagonsociety wrote:1. Glasgow on the road in their shield/pool/whatever lay down a marker.

2. Leinster - Few will believe me when I say that Zebre have a chance against Leinster this weekend, but Zebre have a chance. Leinster are vulnerable in the first 2-3 rounds of games historically, Zebre have had turgid 0-3 results against Leinster out in Italy in the past, a refreshed Zebre side is a bit of an unknown quantity. I'm going for Leinster, but to be far closer than people might expect.

3. Munster - Munster get a non-TBP victory on the road, Cardiff stay within a score.

4. Bulls - Bulls have too much, get the TBP

5. Ospreys lose to Scarlets by more than a score. TBP to both. Cracking game. Here's wishing

6. Ulster - TBP at home, Connacht lose by more than a score so no LBP

7. Edinburgh - Take out Dragons by margin more than a score.

1 - Glasgow did lay down a marker with an emphatic loss 33-11. I was wrong
2 - Leinster but far closer than people would have thought 29-33. I was right
3 - Cardiff with good start to the season, Munster LBP 20-13. I was wrong
4 - Bulls with a TBP 15-31. I was right
5 - A draw with Scarlets 2 tries to Ospreys 3. 23-23. I was wrong
6 - Ulster 6 tries, no LBP for Connacht 36-10. I was right
7 - Edinburgh by more than a score 44-6. I was right

Right on 4, wrong on 3. On the 3 I was wrong, I overhyped the road team to do a job on the road looking at teams more than factoring in venues maybe. On the rights, Leinster and Bulls winning on the road aren't that much of a shock, Ulster have had Connachts number in Ravenhill for quite a while and Dragons have to prove it at home first before they start getting any predictions for picking up road victories in the league.

You sure about that? The match I saw was 2 tries to each side.

thebandwagonsociety wrote:1. Glasgow on the road in their shield/pool/whatever lay down a marker.

2. Leinster - Few will believe me when I say that Zebre have a chance against Leinster this weekend, but Zebre have a chance. Leinster are vulnerable in the first 2-3 rounds of games historically, Zebre have had turgid 0-3 results against Leinster out in Italy in the past, a refreshed Zebre side is a bit of an unknown quantity. I'm going for Leinster, but to be far closer than people might expect.

3. Munster - Munster get a non-TBP victory on the road, Cardiff stay within a score.

4. Bulls - Bulls have too much, get the TBP

5. Ospreys lose to Scarlets by more than a score. TBP to both. Cracking game. Here's wishing

6. Ulster - TBP at home, Connacht lose by more than a score so no LBP

7. Edinburgh - Take out Dragons by margin more than a score.

How on earth can you make predictions before you know the team line ups?

Oakdene wrote:

thebandwagonsociety wrote:

thebandwagonsociety wrote:1. Glasgow on the road in their shield/pool/whatever lay down a marker.

2. Leinster - Few will believe me when I say that Zebre have a chance against Leinster this weekend, but Zebre have a chance. Leinster are vulnerable in the first 2-3 rounds of games historically, Zebre have had turgid 0-3 results against Leinster out in Italy in the past, a refreshed Zebre side is a bit of an unknown quantity. I'm going for Leinster, but to be far closer than people might expect.

3. Munster - Munster get a non-TBP victory on the road, Cardiff stay within a score.

4. Bulls - Bulls have too much, get the TBP

5. Ospreys lose to Scarlets by more than a score. TBP to both. Cracking game. Here's wishing

6. Ulster - TBP at home, Connacht lose by more than a score so no LBP

7. Edinburgh - Take out Dragons by margin more than a score.

1 - Glasgow did lay down a marker with an emphatic loss 33-11. I was wrong
2 - Leinster but far closer than people would have thought 29-33. I was right
3 - Cardiff with good start to the season, Munster LBP 20-13. I was wrong
4 - Bulls with a TBP 15-31. I was right
5 - A draw with Scarlets 2 tries to Ospreys 3. 23-23. I was wrong
6 - Ulster 6 tries, no LBP for Connacht 36-10. I was right
7 - Edinburgh by more than a score 44-6. I was right

Right on 4, wrong on 3. On the 3 I was wrong, I overhyped the road team to do a job on the road looking at teams more than factoring in venues maybe. On the rights, Leinster and Bulls winning on the road aren't that much of a shock, Ulster have had Connachts number in Ravenhill for quite a while and Dragons have to prove it at home first before they start getting any predictions for picking up road victories in the league.

You sure about that? The match I saw was 2 tries to each side.

I'm not liking the URC website which has to this game 3 tries to Osprey and Anscombe (who scored two in the same minute which is impressive).

https://www.unitedrugby.com/match-centre/202201/united-rugby-championship/scarlets-vs-ospreys-2022-09-17/271777

I own my mistakes though, so I stand corrected Oakdene.

PhilBB wrote:

thebandwagonsociety wrote:1. Glasgow on the road in their shield/pool/whatever lay down a marker.

2. Leinster - Few will believe me when I say that Zebre have a chance against Leinster this weekend, but Zebre have a chance. Leinster are vulnerable in the first 2-3 rounds of games historically, Zebre have had turgid 0-3 results against Leinster out in Italy in the past, a refreshed Zebre side is a bit of an unknown quantity. I'm going for Leinster, but to be far closer than people might expect.

3. Munster - Munster get a non-TBP victory on the road, Cardiff stay within a score.

4. Bulls - Bulls have too much, get the TBP

5. Ospreys lose to Scarlets by more than a score. TBP to both. Cracking game. Here's wishing

6. Ulster - TBP at home, Connacht lose by more than a score so no LBP

7. Edinburgh - Take out Dragons by margin more than a score.

How on earth can you make predictions before you know the team line ups?

Shots fired!
Predictions can be made at any time.
They just won't be very accurate predictions.
There is a freedom to do so, so to speak.
I can confidently say all my predictions have been made on earth too.

Interesting weekend - all Conferences had as many wins as defeats.

However 3 teams in the Scots/Italian group will be happy but only one of the Irish teams will be happy.

Was working it out and the Scottish teams have a big advantage, and Connacht and Lions are at a serious disadvantage with the current format. Its only when you think about it you realise how bad Connacht have it, effectively they start about 8-12 points behind Edinburgh and Glasgow in the race for playoff spots. Thats a big handicap to overcome.

Add that roughly a team need to win 10 games and pick up 10 BPs to make the playoffs. 1/3 of connachts season is interpros, where they are usually a big underdog (they do tend to overperform and win one otlr two each year), losing all 6 wouldn't be a surprise, meaning they'd need to win 10 of tje remaining 12 games! Counterwise I don't think Glasgow would have made the playoffs last year with Connachts fixtures, and their league position flattered them somewhat.

Connacht are not going to make the playoffs or HCup with everything so stacked against them, their best option is to go all out in the challange Cup and try to win it.

Kingshu wrote:Was working it out and the Scottish  teams have a big advantage, and Connacht and Lions are at a serious disadvantage with the current format. Its only when you think about it you realise how bad Connacht have it, effectively they start about 8-12 points behind Edinburgh and Glasgow in the race for playoff spots. Thats a big handicap to overcome.

Add that roughly a team need to win 10 games and pick up 10 BPs to make the playoffs. 1/3 of connachts season is interpros, where they are usually a big underdog (they do tend to overperform and win one otlr two each year), losing all 6 wouldn't be a surprise, meaning they'd need to win 10 of tje remaining 12 games! Counterwise I don't think Glasgow would have made the playoffs last year with Connachts fixtures, and their league position flattered them somewhat.

Connacht are not going to make the playoffs or HCup with everything so stacked against them, their best option is to go all out in the challange Cup and try to win it.

While true they lost to Dragon at home last year while picking up the most wins v South African teams 3/4. They are inconsistent unlike their winning year when they were very consistent.

I think the attendance for the inter pros allows them more money to recruit better players which they wouldn't have in a different system.

I think any of the teams 8-12 will look at the Challange Cup as the easiest way into the Champions Cup and also helps with having a big day out. Glasgow must have it as a goal for they year.

Kingshu wrote:Was working it out and the Scottish  teams have a big advantage, and Connacht and Lions are at a serious disadvantage with the current format. Its only when you think about it you realise how bad Connacht have it, effectively they start about 8-12 points behind Edinburgh and Glasgow in the race for playoff spots. Thats a big handicap to overcome.

Add that roughly a team need to win 10 games and pick up 10 BPs to make the playoffs. 1/3 of connachts season is interpros, where they are usually a big underdog (they do tend to overperform and win one otlr two each year), losing all 6 wouldn't be a surprise, meaning they'd need to win 10 of tje remaining 12 games! Counterwise I don't think Glasgow would have made the playoffs last year with Connachts fixtures, and their league position flattered them somewhat.

Connacht are not going to make the playoffs or HCup with everything so stacked against them, their best option is to go all out in the challange Cup and try to win it.

How have you calculated that 8-12 points?