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URC Round 1

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geoff999rugby
RugbyFan100
Oakdene
jimbopip
thebandwagonsociety
RiscaGame
Kingshu
Pot Hale
mikey_dragon
Welshmushroom
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Post by Welshmushroom Tue 13 Sep 2022, 3:05 pm

First topic message reminder :

URC Round 1 fixtures

Treviso vs Glasgow 16th Sept 5.30pm
Zebre vs Leinster 17th Sept 1pm
Cardiff vs Munster 17th Sept 3.05pm
Lions vs Bulls 17th Sept 3.05pm
Scarlets vs Ospreys 17th Sept 5.15pm
Ulster vs Connacht 17th Sept 7.35pm
Edinburgh vs Dragons 17th Sept 7.35pm

**Sharks vs Stormers is being played on the 3rd Feb 2023

Feel free to post predictions or team news on this thread

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Post by Kingshu Thu 22 Sep 2022, 4:46 pm

The 3 extra games, Connacht play Leinster, Ulster and Munster, they would not be favs for any of those games (and while they usually overperform) the expected return would be 1LBP (bookies had them +11 v Ulster so werent expected to get LBP there, same would be v Leinster, and maybe 1 v Munster).

If they played Edinburghs 3 extra fixtures instead Glasgow Benetton Zebre, (last year v all 3 they were favourites) youd expect 13 points if Glasgow was at home, 9 if away. So about an 8-12 point disadvange overall.

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Post by RiscaGame Fri 23 Sep 2022, 1:21 am

You’d think Connacht could beat Dragons at home and they didn’t. So there’s no real pretend points margin. I don’t get it.

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Post by Kingshu Fri 23 Sep 2022, 10:39 am

RiscaGame wrote:You’d think Connacht could beat Dragons at home and they didn’t. So there’s no real pretend points margin. I don’t get it.

Connacht started that game as heavy favourites, and were expected to get 5 points. They under performed. Likewise they were under dogs V ulster at the Aviva and overperformed. But you can give expected points totals

Otherwise what your saying is connacht are as likily to get 12 points from Ulster Munster Leinster as they are Glasgow Benetton Zebre?

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