England vs Wales - Match ups.

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The Back Three

Wales Likely - North - Halfpenny - Cuthbert.

England Likely: Ashton - Foden - Strettle

England's back three contains more pace, whilst Foden on his day can be electric, although was poor against Italy and Brown will feel unlucky to miss out, Ashton has looked out of sorts on the left wing, whilst Strettle has been solid if not spectacular. The Welsh wings will prove a real handful for England and they need to find a way to negate them. North is world class in attack - he has it all, pace, power and vision, however his defensive work-rate may need work on, whilst Cuthbert is also fast and powerful. Halfpenny has been goal kicking well, he's looked mostly solid under the high ball and there is no doubt he has gas and is creative in attack. Therefore I'd have to say that Wales have the edge here.

Centres

Wales Likely: Roberts - Davies

England Likely: Barritt - Tuilagi/Farrell - Tuilagi

The Welsh centre partnership is extremely potent and many have labelled both Davies and Roberts as a future Lions centre pairing. Davies is in the form of his life, both players have a physical presence and are strong ball carriers, both have a high defensive work-rate and both are surprisingly fast. England on the other hand must pick Tuilagi as he has the x-factor and could potentially damage Wales (both in attack and defence!) the problem is, who to play him with. If England pick Barritt at 12 they have a rock wall defensively and a player who will aim to get you across the gainline in a one dimensional manner. If England pick Farrell at 12, they can rely on his composed goal kicking, and in attack he may offer more creativity than Barritt although hasn't really had the chance to show this against Scotland and Italy, there will also be question marks surrounding whether his defence will be able to cope with the likes of North, Roberts and Davies running at him. Therefore I would pick Barritt and Tuilagi in the centres, I feel the could combine well together and would be rock solid defensively. Wales have the edge here by a clear margin.

Half Backs

Wales Likely: Phillips - Priestland

England Likely: Dickson - Hodgson/Youngs - Flood/Dickson - Flood

Both Welsh half backs are extremely dangerous, in defence Phillips acts as an extra flanker, whilst in attack he can ball carry effectively and provide good service. Priestland attacks the gainline, has a very strong kicking game and is solid in defence. England have a tough choice to make regarding scrum half - Youngs has been out of sorts, whilst Dickson has looked lively when he has come on and is buzzing for a start. Arguably the most important decision England need to make is at fly half, between Flood and Hodgson. Hodgson hasn't done anything wrong, he defended very well against Scotland and Italy, he didn't have the burden of goal kicking, whilst he has scored two opportunist charge down tries in two games, although he has struggled to ignite the England backline. I'd go with Flood, simply as Flood is an established international goal kicker - which means England can have Barritt and Tuilagi in the centres, whilst Flood also has the ability to get the backline moving and he can bring the best out of Ben Youngs and Manu Tuilagi. Tough call on Hodgson though. Wales again have the edge at half back.

Back Row

Wales Likely: Warburton (c) - Faletau - Lydiate

England Likely: Robshaw (c) - Morgan - Croft

Wales have potentially the best back row in world rugby. Lydiate is a traditional blindside who carries hard, has a huge defensive work-rate and does the grafting. Faletau has an even higher defensive work-rate than Lydiate which really says something, and he is a huge ball carrier, at 21 his potential is ridiculous. Warburton is also a fantastic player already, he is fast, powerful and can compete with the best in the world at turning the ball over at the breakdown. England in the back row are a work in progress, Robshaw playing at 7 is a traditional blindside - his work-rate is phenominal, however he lacks the scavenging skills and pace of an openside. Croft is an unorthodox blindside, who tends to go missing in games, however on his day he can be very effective, and his lineout skills are unquestioned. Morgan is a direct, powerful number 8 with a good defensive work-rate and deserves a chance to start. Again Wales have the edge here.

Second Row

Wales Likely: Evans - Jones

England Likely: Botha - Palmer

Evans is a solid lock, who tackles hard and carries well in the tight, whilst Jones looks a reborn player in the second row at the minute and really acts as an extra flanker around the pitch. England will look to gain the upper hand in the lineout with Palmer calling the shots and Croft able to help out, whilst Botha will look to make his physical presence felt around the park. The engine room of England's scrum may also be more effective than the Welsh with Botha a particularly strong scrummager. Therefore I feel England have the edge here.

Front Row

Wales Likely: Jenkins - Bennett - Jones

England Likely: Corbisiero - Hartley - Cole

There is no doubt on his day Jenkins is the best loosehead prop in the world especially around the park with his ball carrying, defence and handling particularly impressive. Jones is a powerful tighthead and Bennett may need to work on his consistency in the lineout, where England will target him. England's front row is also a work in progress - Corbisiero, Hartley and Cole have all scrummaged well against the Scots and Italians. Hartley has been very effective in the loose, his lineout has mostly been impressive, whilst Corbisiero and Cole will want to make more of an impression around the park. Even call in this department.

Conclusion

Wales have the upper hand in most departments, however England will look to dominate in the set-piece and if the right selections are made I can see England potentially pulling off an upset. (Funny to say that about a home game at Twickenham) Maybe I am just living in hope.

Robshaw's Barmy Army.

eirebilly wrote:I have no idea how many times that they have broken the golden rule of kicking away first phase possesion after a turnover but it must be staggeringly high.

Is that really such a bad thing to do? There can be occasions where the opposition back three haven't got into position yet after a turnover, so kicking it behind them straight away can be a really good way of gaining a lot of territory. I wouldn't want my team unthinkingly doing it every time, but it can be very useful.

I think the commentators in Wales v Scotland game were being harsh on kicking from first phase turn over. But in those cases there were clear overlaps (Nymbahs!) and the kicks were fairly ordinary.

I'm genuinely quite surprised that the majority of the the posters are advocating starting Farrell at 10. A position he has barely featured in this season.

Fly-Half may be his long term position, and there is no doubt he is a comfortable goal kicker, however he is a work in progress in all other aspects of his game, his overall kicking game needs improving, whilst he doesn't quite have the knowledge of how to get the back line firing and what the right decision is to make and when.

At Saracens they play a very structured approach to their backline play and I feel this currently limits Farrells potential creative ability. Therefore I feel the best place for Farrell to be this weekend is on the bench. Number 21. He may have done little wrong against Scotland and Italy, but he is still learning and to start him against a confident, powerful Welsh side is a huge step up.

I personally think Flood will be the best option. He has experience at the highest level, he helped England win the six nations last season playing some exciting rugby at 10, whilst he has beaten Wales before, he also has the ability to produce the best out of the likes of Tuilagi and Barritt, whilst he can help bring Foden, Strettle and Ashton into the game, something Hodgson has struggled with. Flood is also strong defensively and an acomplished international goal kicker.

9. Dickson
10. Flood
11. Strettle
12. Barritt
13. Tuilagi
14. Ashton
15. Foden

20. Youngs
21. Farrell
22. Brown

(I'd also be very tempted to shift Foden onto one of the wings to integrate Brown into the starting XV, Brown has been the form full back of the Aviva Premiership and definitely deserves a start, however he is very unlucky to have a player of Foden's ability ahead of him in the pecking order)

Does anyone know when the teams are announced?

luckless_pedestrian wrote:Does anyone know when the teams are announced?

England used to be four days before the game but seems to have changed to two recently, so Thursday I'd guess.

According to the RFU: 2/23/2012 10:15:00

Although why they've used US date format for that I have no idea.

That's no good, Thomh. I can't wait that long!

Mitey, that kind of thing's creeping in, unfortunately.

This is the backline I think SL will play against us
9 Dixon
10 Hodgson
11 Strettle
12 Farrell
13 Tuilagi
14 Ashton
15 Foden

Longer term I think this is better
9 Youngs
10 Farrell
11 Strettle
12 Barritt
13 Tuilagi
14 Ashton
15 Brown

Either way, I still think well win. Just.

luckless_pedestrian wrote:That's no good, Thomh. I can't wait that long!

Mitey, that kind of thing's creeping in, unfortunately.

At least it's still in UTC and they haven't announced the naming in EST to make it easy for those watching the naming from Martha's Vineyard.

thomh wrote:

eirebilly wrote:I have no idea how many times that they have broken the golden rule of kicking away first phase possesion after a turnover but it must be staggeringly high.

Is that really such a bad thing to do? There can be occasions where the opposition back three haven't got into position yet after a turnover, so kicking it behind them straight away can be a really good way of gaining a lot of territory. I wouldn't want my team unthinkingly doing it every time, but it can be very useful.

Not always but when the attacking side has a turn over, there are usually gaps tht can be exploited. Personally i dont like to kick possesion away from turnovers, i love phase play

Priestlands kicking from first phase was poor against Scotland and he more or less admitted it himself. He lost some composure due to scottish pressure IMO

luckless_pedestrian wrote:Does anyone know when the teams are announced?

Welsh team is announced tomorrow lunchtime apparently

Sweet!

Eeeep

Once teams are announced then real nerves start kicking in, we might (but I doubt it) be able to get a genuine discussion going on about the game without idiots (from both camps) spoiling it.

Wales naming their side tomorrow. Really? This tends to suggest that they don’t have any significan injury worries at all. Or at least they do not have any grey area ones that they want to hold back on. England announce their sides later and later these days….

Robshaw4England

I can see your point re Farrell/ Flood at 10. The point most pro Farrell at 10 people are making is that he is not one to be daunted. I for one have seen enough. This guy is unflappable. If the Welsh overly try to target him at 10 they'd be barking up the wrong tree and wasting their energy IMO.

It is a big ask for the young man but we believe he is up to it. Granted his decision making at 10 will take time to fully mature but that is the same with all young 10s.

Don’t think for a moment that playing Flood at 10 is not without risk though. Flood is just making his way back from injury and just put in an unconvincing performance for Leicester. He will be asked to kick goals as well as spark the backline from a base of no club let along international form whatsoever. Also he will be without his partner in crime Youngs. Hmmm.

Play Farrell at 10, keep Flood on the bench as insurance if it is all going pear shaped or alternatively to come on and spark things when there is something to be sparked later on in the game when things open up a bit. The early stages of matches typically are first and foremost about no mistakes accuracy and clarity in all that you do and landing your kicks. All of which Farrell is more than capable of doing.

"There are no such things as bad decisions on the rugby pitch. The key is for everyone to back up every decision with decisive action. " ( I paraphrase) Bob Dwyer

Triangulation

And the main point being made against him is that he hasn't shown the passing range to manage an international backline, and hasn't played there enough this season. I'm not endorsing that view, as I didn't see much of him at 10 last year, but do you think he will be able to bring Tuilagi into the game well enough to make space for our back three?

Stuart Lancaster will be nursing a sore head about now, with regards Manu Tualagi, should he make room for him in the starting line up, or on the bench.

And what about Toby Flood. He looked a bit shaky yesterday, but given the fact that he is coming back from an injury, he may be lacking a little in confidence, but did he do enough to warrant a start or a Bench spot, or should he stay with Leicester Tigers for atleast another week?

What with Wales naming their team tomorrow, i guess it will give SL a bit more thinking time, about if he should make any changes and how many he should make.

No one there to oust Charlie Hodgson - surely that has to be a concern chargedowns aside

Thomh

That may be a valid point. I see your question and raise you one of my own…can he run scissor moves with his inside centre and outside centre? ( I want to see Tuilagi running into and either hitting or slicing through Welsh tight 5 forwards who have just had 5 minutes defensive mauling practice) Can he run loops around those lads? Can he throw inside balls to onrushing wingers? Of course he can!

The above, the odd well executed and timely chip/ grubber over the massive and hard blitzing welsh defensive line, no missed tackles and slotting his kicks. That is what we tell the young man we want from him. When the passing range bit becomes required later on in the match then fine bring on Flood or Charlie "the best passing fly half in England" Hodgson .

Tualagi would be a great impact sub

munkian wrote:Tualagi would be a great impact sub

Yeah he tried it off the back of a boat once and everyone said he looked like an impact sub.

Just heard Sharples is out with a dead leg.

RubyGuby wrote:

munkian wrote:Tualagi would be a great impact sub

Yeah he tried it off the back of a boat once and everyone said he looked like an impact sub.

slartibartfast wrote:Just heard Sharples is out with a dead leg.

.

Triangulation wrote:Thomh

That may be a valid point. I see your question and raise you one of my own…can he run scissor moves with his inside centre and outside centre? ( I want to see Tuilagi running into and either hitting or slicing through Welsh tight 5 forwards who have just had 5 minutes defensive mauling practice) Can he run loops around those lads? Can he throw inside balls to onrushing wingers? Of course he can!

The above, the odd well executed and timely chip/ grubber over the massive and hard blitzing welsh defensive line, no missed tackles and slotting his kicks. That is what we tell the young man we want from him. When the passing range bit becomes required later on in the match then fine bring on Flood or Charlie "the best passing fly half in England" Hodgson .

Well when you put it like that it all sounds so simple! I can't argue this one because I haven't seen him enough at 10, but if after all this we just start with the same centre partnership and bring Tuilagi off the bench I'll be a bit annoyed.

im starting to think that is exactly what we will see.. same midfield as the 1st two tests.

And I can see the logic behind it. Flood is england best 10 imo but im just not sure throwing him straight into what is effectively a new team just after injury is a wise move. Farrell is inexperienced and has not been playing 10 for his club, the sensible option is to stick with Hodgeson, he may not have shown much in attack yet but he is capable in that department.

Also england need a dependable kicker, with flood not quite ready, Farrell must start in the centres. i would love to see tuilagi start but i could just as easily see lancaster sticking with barritt for continuity and his reliable defence. tuilagi and floods potential impact from the bench would also be a bonus.

HQ matt

I see what you mean about the logic behind it, but what do you think the Welsh would rather we picked? I bet they'd be delighted if Manu doesn't start.

Brad Barrit defence will be exposed big time in this game, all this talking up his defence against Scotland who made so many line breaks down his channel and Italy

The guy is going to be in for a hiding

So many down his channel? He missed one tackle.

viewtothegym wrote:Brad Barrit defence will be exposed big time in this game, all this talking up his defence against Scotland who made so many line breaks down his channel and Italy

The guy is going to be in for a hiding

Errmm no he wont

the reference to barritts defence is not just based on the 2 tests so far but also on his performances for sarries over the last few years, he wont let anyone down.

i feel the game is more likely to open up in the second half, im sure the welsh wont be delighted to see him come off the bench either.

Manu's Boxing Coach wrote:

viewtothegym wrote:Brad Barrit defence will be exposed big time in this game, all this talking up his defence against Scotland who made so many line breaks down his channel and Italy

The guy is going to be in for a hiding

Errmm no he wont

Scotland scored against Wales, twice, they didn't score against England. People in glass houses...

Which was the second try? I must have missed that obviously.

Glas a du wrote:Which was the second try? I must have missed that obviously.

Glas just ignore him, he only has other teams tries to winge about so I think he's a bit bitter

Well lets be honest, Hogg did actually score against Wales.. of course it wasn't given (wrongly) but he did score it.

As did Lawson against England. Point?

And Lawson scoring against England makes the Welsh one irrelevant.. how?

My point is you are moaning at him for pointing out Scotland scored twice, but he is right.

No he's not. Look at the record books, one try. If you count the disallowed one then count the disallowed one against England and he has even less of a point.

Tries:
Wales 3 - 1 Scotland

Cross whitewash
Wales 3 - 2 Scotland

Vs

Tries
Scotland 0 - 1 England

Cross whitewash:
Scotland 1 - 1 England

Where is the victory moral or otherwise in that?

Regarding match ups, wales have edge but depends on SL selection and game plan. Can see England trying to get hold of Phillips as he delays slightly to have a look and fly into priestland at every opportunity to put pressure on kick. If tuialagi and baritt start it will give us a little go forward and the look of a more powerful midfield but would you leave out the reliable kicking of Farrell? I think Farrell will start with Tuiagli, Jamie Roberts will be licking his lips if this is the case. Englands Backrow will have to front up big time to combat Noth and Roberts so captain Robshaw will have to do the tree felling job on Roberts like Joe Worsley did a few years back. Should be interesting to watch (i'll have no nails left)!

Glas a du wrote:No he's not. Look at the record books, one try. If you count the disallowed one then count the disallowed one against England and he has even less of a point.

Tries:
Wales 3 - 1 Scotland

Cross whitewash
Wales 3 - 2 Scotland

Vs

Tries
Scotland 0 - 1 England

Cross whitewash:
Scotland 1 - 1 England

Where is the victory moral or otherwise in that?

His point was that Scotland scored two tries against Wales and technically they did, that was all I was saying. I didn't mention Lawson against England at all, nor do I want to get involved in silly Wales vs England arguments. Hogg did score a try against Wales, whether the points were actually given or not. There doesn't need to be any extras added to that. Nor do I see how anyone could disagree with that as it is very clear he caught the ball, and grounded it.

The point is, that it's a bit rich for Welsh supporters to be belittling England's defence, when their own was more leaky.

Honest question: Do you believe the English backs pose less of a threat than Scotland's?

You will have to work harder to score tries against our better defence, whilst our superior proficiency is more likely to break your own defence.

I fail to see what your point is, or why you think it's going to be such a cake-walk.

Most realistic Welsh fans are still bricking this.

Personally, I'm bricking it, not because I don't think we can beat England but because I'm worried the Welsh rugby team don't think they can beat England.

miteyironpaw wrote:The point is, that it's a bit rich for Welsh supporters to be belittling England's defence, when their own was more leaky.

Honest question: Do you believe the English backs pose less of a threat than Scotland's?

You will have to work harder to score tries against our better defence, whilst our superior proficiency is more likely to break your own defence.

I fail to see what your point is, or why you think it's going to be such a cake-walk.

That's a bit disrespectful of Scotland, I thought their back play was good.

Going on the back play in the two England matches so far I think Scotland's play was more inventive.

The only person saying it's going to be a cakewalk for Wales is yourself.

I'd be suprised if Flood makes the 22. An England backline of Dickson, Farrell, Ashton, Barrit, Tuilagi, Strettle, Foden. And in attack, use the centres as a decoy and give to Strettle coming around like the Sarries do.

Flood just didnt look that good to me at the weekend and SL seems a cautious character so i cant see him risking Flood.

I read a strange pronouncement from Stuart Lancaster this morning:

"We take into consideration what we see in training in terms of match sharpness."

( http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/feb/20/england-wales-manu-tuilagi-stuart-lancaster )

Surely what you see in training can't tell you anything about match sharpness?

No but i think that it shows who the hungrier players are Luckless. Those that train the harderst are the ones that want to play the most. At least thats how i see things.

Match fitness can be guaged to a certain degree in training depending on the drills used.

Match fitness, perhaps, but match sharpness? You can't trick yourself into thinking you're playing in a match when you're actually training.

Rees is out apparently so that'll be Hibbard starting with Owens on the bench I reckons.