England vs Wales - Match ups.

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The Back Three

Wales Likely - North - Halfpenny - Cuthbert.

England Likely: Ashton - Foden - Strettle

England's back three contains more pace, whilst Foden on his day can be electric, although was poor against Italy and Brown will feel unlucky to miss out, Ashton has looked out of sorts on the left wing, whilst Strettle has been solid if not spectacular. The Welsh wings will prove a real handful for England and they need to find a way to negate them. North is world class in attack - he has it all, pace, power and vision, however his defensive work-rate may need work on, whilst Cuthbert is also fast and powerful. Halfpenny has been goal kicking well, he's looked mostly solid under the high ball and there is no doubt he has gas and is creative in attack. Therefore I'd have to say that Wales have the edge here.

Centres

Wales Likely: Roberts - Davies

England Likely: Barritt - Tuilagi/Farrell - Tuilagi

The Welsh centre partnership is extremely potent and many have labelled both Davies and Roberts as a future Lions centre pairing. Davies is in the form of his life, both players have a physical presence and are strong ball carriers, both have a high defensive work-rate and both are surprisingly fast. England on the other hand must pick Tuilagi as he has the x-factor and could potentially damage Wales (both in attack and defence!) the problem is, who to play him with. If England pick Barritt at 12 they have a rock wall defensively and a player who will aim to get you across the gainline in a one dimensional manner. If England pick Farrell at 12, they can rely on his composed goal kicking, and in attack he may offer more creativity than Barritt although hasn't really had the chance to show this against Scotland and Italy, there will also be question marks surrounding whether his defence will be able to cope with the likes of North, Roberts and Davies running at him. Therefore I would pick Barritt and Tuilagi in the centres, I feel the could combine well together and would be rock solid defensively. Wales have the edge here by a clear margin.

Half Backs

Wales Likely: Phillips - Priestland

England Likely: Dickson - Hodgson/Youngs - Flood/Dickson - Flood

Both Welsh half backs are extremely dangerous, in defence Phillips acts as an extra flanker, whilst in attack he can ball carry effectively and provide good service. Priestland attacks the gainline, has a very strong kicking game and is solid in defence. England have a tough choice to make regarding scrum half - Youngs has been out of sorts, whilst Dickson has looked lively when he has come on and is buzzing for a start. Arguably the most important decision England need to make is at fly half, between Flood and Hodgson. Hodgson hasn't done anything wrong, he defended very well against Scotland and Italy, he didn't have the burden of goal kicking, whilst he has scored two opportunist charge down tries in two games, although he has struggled to ignite the England backline. I'd go with Flood, simply as Flood is an established international goal kicker - which means England can have Barritt and Tuilagi in the centres, whilst Flood also has the ability to get the backline moving and he can bring the best out of Ben Youngs and Manu Tuilagi. Tough call on Hodgson though. Wales again have the edge at half back.

Back Row

Wales Likely: Warburton (c) - Faletau - Lydiate

England Likely: Robshaw (c) - Morgan - Croft

Wales have potentially the best back row in world rugby. Lydiate is a traditional blindside who carries hard, has a huge defensive work-rate and does the grafting. Faletau has an even higher defensive work-rate than Lydiate which really says something, and he is a huge ball carrier, at 21 his potential is ridiculous. Warburton is also a fantastic player already, he is fast, powerful and can compete with the best in the world at turning the ball over at the breakdown. England in the back row are a work in progress, Robshaw playing at 7 is a traditional blindside - his work-rate is phenominal, however he lacks the scavenging skills and pace of an openside. Croft is an unorthodox blindside, who tends to go missing in games, however on his day he can be very effective, and his lineout skills are unquestioned. Morgan is a direct, powerful number 8 with a good defensive work-rate and deserves a chance to start. Again Wales have the edge here.

Second Row

Wales Likely: Evans - Jones

England Likely: Botha - Palmer

Evans is a solid lock, who tackles hard and carries well in the tight, whilst Jones looks a reborn player in the second row at the minute and really acts as an extra flanker around the pitch. England will look to gain the upper hand in the lineout with Palmer calling the shots and Croft able to help out, whilst Botha will look to make his physical presence felt around the park. The engine room of England's scrum may also be more effective than the Welsh with Botha a particularly strong scrummager. Therefore I feel England have the edge here.

Front Row

Wales Likely: Jenkins - Bennett - Jones

England Likely: Corbisiero - Hartley - Cole

There is no doubt on his day Jenkins is the best loosehead prop in the world especially around the park with his ball carrying, defence and handling particularly impressive. Jones is a powerful tighthead and Bennett may need to work on his consistency in the lineout, where England will target him. England's front row is also a work in progress - Corbisiero, Hartley and Cole have all scrummaged well against the Scots and Italians. Hartley has been very effective in the loose, his lineout has mostly been impressive, whilst Corbisiero and Cole will want to make more of an impression around the park. Even call in this department.

Conclusion

Wales have the upper hand in most departments, however England will look to dominate in the set-piece and if the right selections are made I can see England potentially pulling off an upset. (Funny to say that about a home game at Twickenham) Maybe I am just living in hope.

Robshaw's Barmy Army.

So how much time tends to pass between these periods when a team peaks? How long does a peak tend to last? Does it depend on the team? Because NZ seem to have peaked 80% of the time recently whereas Scotland, by contrast, don't appear to peak very often.

Would anyone please educate me on the percieved nature of peaking? I've seen it brought up before but it always ends up confusing me

In Wales' case something around 43-45 years apparently

miteyironpaw wrote:In Wales' case something around 43-45 years apparently

Not really, Wales have produced multiple grand slam winning sides every 20 years give or take a few. the teams of teh 30s,50s 70s were all pretty dominant and made up the successful lions sides in 55, 71,74. The Great War put paid to the team taht won the grand slam in 1911 but that was after a period of sustained dominance after 1900.

The only time when our cycle was knocked well and truly out of kilter was in the 90s when a whole team dissapeared of to play rugby league a team that would have looked somthing like this,

1. Dai Young
2. Kevin Phillips
3. Stuart Evans
4. Gareth Llewellyn
5. Glyn Llewellyn
6. Emyr Lewis
7. Richie Collins
8. Scott Quinnell
9. Robert Jones - Although Jonathan Griffiths went north he was robs understudy. Dai Bish was better than both but a psycho so didnt get the caps he should have.
10. Jiffy
11. Adrian Hadley
12. Scott Gibbs
13. Alan Bateman
14. Ieuan Evans
15. Tony Clement

Had we been able to field a side like that, I think the 90s wouldnt have been near as bad as they were. Gibbs Bateman Quinnell, Jiffy the props were all in their prime when they went north along with about 20-30 others of the best and brightest talent wales had.

So the twenty tweens are goinog to be Wales decade. Golden age number three anyone?

I stand by 43-45 years. Isn't that the approximate interval that you beat NZ signalling your golden years?

Don't stoop to it Tycroes but I think you've summed that up quite nicely

the golden age in the 70s didnt beat the blacks. only played them twice I think although the sides in the 30s and 50s did. Up until the 60s the All Blacks only beat wales 25% of the time so it wasnt really a marker for welsh sides dominance in the five nations.

The failure to win in the 70s is somthing that can still make a grown man of a certain age wake up screaming Quittenton you %&$£.

Welsh fans may be pleased to know that Lancaster plans on 'attacking the Welsh'

So England to play a running game ? Could be... interesting ?

Does he think he's Edward the Flip first or what? He'll never get the planning...

munkian wrote:Welsh fans may be pleased to know that Lancaster plans on 'attacking the Welsh'

So England to play a running game ? Could be... interesting ?

Im suprised by that, I expect its just mind games, Englands best chance is not to get sucked into open rugby. If they try and play it fast and loose they will come unstuck badly.

Well thats Hodgson, Barrit and Farrell dropped then

Ross Ford said the same thing. Nuff said

TycroesOsprey wrote:

munkian wrote:Welsh fans may be pleased to know that Lancaster plans on 'attacking the Welsh'

So England to play a running game ? Could be... interesting ?

Im suprised by that, I expect its just mind games, Englands best chance is not to get sucked into open rugby. If they try and play it fast and loose they will come unstuck badly.

Well we can't go for a scrum dominated style cos we aint got the forwards anymore and we can't fling it about cos we aint got the backs...is this how it feels to be Scottish?

The tactic is simple. Get ball to Tuilagi or Foden, pray.

I hate this favouritism tag. Instant complacency. Urgh!

ChequeredJersey wrote:The tactic is simple. Get ball to Tuilagi or Foden, pray.

Pray Foden doesn't drop it or knock it on ?

Or crab sideways for 25 meters, realise he's run away from his support and then throw a desperate pass that even an Italian mid-fielder could intercept and run away for a try?

Am looking forward to hopefully seeing Morgan and Faletau go head to head because it hasn't happened yet in the Pro12.

If you wish to judge Foden by two mistakes (one not very avoidable) last game, feel free to do so. It will be funnier when he runs over your 10 in the first minute again

Chequered - I think they are english fans

ChequeredJersey wrote:If you wish to judge Foden by two mistakes (one not very avoidable) last game, feel free to do so. It will be funnier when he runs over your 10 in the first minute again

But that's the thing, he didn't run over Jones. Foden stood stock still and Jones ran himself under him

Plus Jones isn't playing 10

Foden has been dissapointing in both our games. If he fails again they should give Brown a go, at least off the bench...

Fine no matter whose fans they are, there are a lot of easy targets in England's backline. I don't think Foden is one of them. One bad game a bad player does not make

No he's playing 3, 4 and 17.

ChequeredJersey wrote:One bad game a bad player does not make

Foden has gone missing or made stupid naive errors on a few occassions, I still remember his quick lineout throw to himself that he botched in the world cup. No need for it. Just stupid, and put the whole team under pressure. He needs to play with composure and execute well this time or the calls for him to be given an erm, *motivational rest* will only get louder.

Foden is the one genuine world class player in the England line up - The problem at the moment is that he's trying to create too much as there's no else there to do it - That's what caused Italys first try - He is trying to make it happen with little or no support - It must be rustrating for the guy

Either that or everyone else is playing to the coach's game plan and Foden is on a different script.

So the game plan is - lets not try to attack - lets sit back and wait for the chargedown

RubyGuby wrote:So the game plan is - lets not try to attack - lets sit back and wait for the chargedown

Hey, it's worked so far. Now, who's your weakest kicker in the backs?

ChequeredJersey wrote:

RubyGuby wrote:So the game plan is - lets not try to attack - lets sit back and wait for the chargedown

Hey, it's worked so far. Now, who's your weakest kicker in the backs?

Ah that would be george north.

Nah taht won't work, if Hodgson charges him, North will just choose not to kick, run down the pitch and score

Tycroes, that would have been some back division, and some front row. Oh well.

Foden is a super player, I wouldn't over-emphasise a couple of mistakes.

RubyGuby wrote:So the game plan is - lets not try to attack - lets sit back and wait for the chargedown

There is nothing wrong with an aggressive defence winning games mate. Happens regularly. Just watch NZ a couple of times.

I think Englands best chance is to attack. If they sit back and let Wales run at them then Wales will run at them and score tries. Also England can't rely on the lineout as it is not as weak as some on here would like to think. I don't think the tactical kicking game is Englands best chance.

With a back three like Wales have you are best keeping them out of it. England need to find a way to get behind the centres and get our forwards going backwards. If they can consistently do that then they will be able to apply some pressure.
I hope Gatland and Edwards put the fear of god into Wales and make them come out firing because Englands forwards will want to get into us.

Wales can win with 40% possession, and the English forwards probably can't even manage that - So, England will have to really work hard on defence and hope Wales give away penalties.

God I hope we win purely for the fact that next week would be so much fun here on 606v2.

It won't be any less fun for us if Wales win Hershy bar

I don't know?

They're bound to win by a dodgy refereeing decision, forward pass or something else.

Thats always fun

I'm not worry about Wales lineout or scrum

Was it my imagination or did England loose some lineouts and scrums against Italy? And only looked any good once italies subs back fired?

Hmm...

I hope Wales play better than they have done, it's been a bit sloppy

My head tells me Wales by 20
My heart tells me England 19 - 23 Wales

I'm predicting a narrow loss for Wales. England to snatch it by a point due to the sheer terror of losing at Twickers to the likes of us. Wales 6 points up after 75 mins, then a chargedown by Charles Charlie Charles Hodgy on 79 mins. Try converted. Cue Toby Floods of tears for me

slartibartfast wrote:I'm not worry about Wales lineout or scrum

Was it my imagination or did England loose some lineouts and scrums against Italy? And only looked any good once italies subs back fired?

Hmm...

I hope Wales play better than they have done, it's been a bit sloppy

My head tells me Wales by 20
My heart tells me England 19 - 23 Wales

They lost 3 lineouts on their own throw and two scrums against the head. worse figures than our pack against the scots or Irish.

Charles Charlie Charles

...the 1930's team don't like the look of those celebrations...

Glas a du wrote:

Charles Charlie Charles

...the 1930's team don't like the look of those celebrations...

It's like the ball's almost stuck to his foot!!

Classic..................

Slartibart
Interesting prediction,just seen Stephen Donald on a NZ rugby show,predicting a Welsh win by 20....He also said since he was so far away none of his English mates would hear of his prediction.

bedfordwelsh wrote:Am looking forward to hopefully seeing Morgan and Faletau go head to head because it hasn't happened yet in the Pro12.

I had a dream last night that Toby scored a try from miles out, handing off half-a-dozen English players on his way to the line.

luckless_pedestrian wrote:

bedfordwelsh wrote:Am looking forward to hopefully seeing Morgan and Faletau go head to head because it hasn't happened yet in the Pro12.

I had a dream last night that Toby scored a try from miles out, handing off half-a-dozen English players on his way to the line.

LP,

Hope so because he's one of my 1st trying scorers with the bookies, not mind if its from miles or millimetres out mind

Toby,Mike Phillips and JD2 are having some at Ladbrokes for 1st try.Oh yessssssss!

aucklandlaurie wrote: Slartibart
Interesting prediction,just seen Stephen Donald on a NZ rugby show,predicting a Welsh win by 20....He also said since he was so far away none of his English mates would hear of his prediction.

I had a dream last night that Wales lost - I've been gutted all day.

Is that rugby program any good in NZ? The Welsh ones have gone really cheesy and don't seem to analyse tries or power plays or how opposition broke down the opposition defence etc. I've also noticed that for try replays the only show from the last breakdown which sometimes can be a few yards out dispite the orginal break could have been the other end of the field.

Rugby Club is far better at analysis.

Talking of match ups... Team Morale.... we have Andy Powell, the fact that he's not in the match day 22 will significantly raise Welsh Morale.

Also he's a bit of a laugh isn't he...

Apparently he's been boasting about his new car he recently bought,

Apparently on motorways it sounds just like a golf



buggy.


No?

I'll get my coat.

Heheh.....

In all seriousness Wales are confident of the win and rightly so.......the forwards? We'll take that I think (tight 5 obviously), this game will be decided by the backs in contradiction to that old mantra 'forwards win matches....'

Oops...

To summarise - tight 5....us, just.
back row - wales
backs - mostly wales.
Therefore - wales

ok?