PGA Tour: The Olympic Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

1).Notes this week from the Land That WiFi Forgot; but the beach cricket pitches are spectacular - if anyone only knew how to play. So: Notes very short, if not sweet.

2).Last week's entertainment in Memphis was predictably unpredictable. Good to have Dustin Johnson back in Victory Lane, but a short stint in front of the telly would have suggested that, if Rory had made just half the putts he missed under five feet, he'd have probably won.

3).Glimmer of form from two unlikely Aussie sources with Nick O'Hern registering his first top 25 finish of the season. Expect him also to play well in Hartford in a fortnight. And Robert Allenby was back on the leaderboard after a couple of months in the weeds. Allenby, who could always be depended upon for his ball-striking - and his unpredictable short game. Now the whole lot has been unpredictable. Maybe that will change with some confidence from a good result..

4).More good results from Greg Owen, now almost certain to qualify, not just for The Barclays, but for the Deutsche Bank also.

5).Dustin Johnson now has six wins since 2007 - only Woods (16), Mickelson (10), Stricker (9) and Zach (7) have more. About 3/1 against one of those five increasing his total this week?

6).Robert Karlsson has sunk to #50 in the World Rankings, perhaps just a continuation of his rotten form away from leaving for the Top 50 for the first time in over 4 years. The leaders in consecutive weeks in the top 50 might surprise:
Mickelson - 968
Donald - 406
Poulter - 299
Stricker - 275
Zach Johnson - 270
Westwood - 249
Kaymer - 229

7).No-one has won the US Open after winning on the PGA Tour the previous week, in recent history at least. Dustin Johnson has a lot to prove and his successes (and an ultimate disappointment) at Pebble Beach suggest that he's a strong candidate to upset that line in the record book. But the past two US Opens at Olympic have been won by Scott Simpson and Lee Janzen, top-class golfers to be sure but known better for steady play and sometimes excellent short games. Furyk-like, Donald, Stricker? Not sure I've got the faintest idea, but Olympic will certainly test the patience.

8).More as an item of interest than an indicator for this week, the 1998 leaders from this week's field include:
5th: Stricker
7th: Westwood
10th: Cink, Mickelson
14th: Furyk, Kuchar
18th: Woods
23rd: Casey Martin
25th: Bjorn, Singh,
32nd: Durant, Harrington
43th: Olin Browne
49th: Els

9).The forecast for Thursday and Friday at least suggests cool, breezy weather with temps not reaching 70F until the weekend. Combined with the traditional "heavy" ocean air, the course yardage of approx 7,100 yards will play much longer, especially given the very narrow actual landing areas on some fairways caused by the sloped landing areas. I'd guess that will favour a Westwood over a Donald, a Mahan over a Stricker, but really can't think of any "favourite".

10).So who are we going to be staying up late to see crowned "US Open Champion"? Not McIlroy or Donald for me, and not Bubba or even Tiger, despite his return to winning form at Memorial. In 2009 he won each of his last pre-Major start but came up empty; it would be a brave punter who bet on a repeat, but this may not be the opportunity for him. Best bet might be e.w. on someone like Peter Hanson. Or even a real stretch, Spencer Levin. And by that time I’ll have returned to the land of wi-fi.



From incontinentia (merged from another thread):


Site: The Olympic Club (Lake Course)

The course: The Lake Course was designed in 1924 by Willie Watson and Sam Whiting, and then Whiting redesigned it three years later because of significant storm damage. Its main characteristics are sloping, tree-lined fairways as the property works its way down toward Lake Merced. There is only one fairway bunker on the entire course, at the par-4 sixth. There have been minimal renovations over the years, except for a new hole created for the par-3 eighth that now plays 200 yards and was moved to the right. Hundreds of trees have been removed, opening views down toward Lake Merced.

Length: 7,170 yards
Par: 34-36—70

Last time at Olympic Club: Lee Janzen overcame a five-shot deficit against Payne Stewart and closed with a 2-under 68 for a two-shot victory. Janzen got a huge break in the final round when his ball, stuck in a tree on the fifth hole, was dislodged as Janzen was headed back to the tee to play his third shot. It was his second U.S. Open title.

U.S. Open champions at Olympic Club: Jack Fleck (1955), Billy Casper (1966), Scott Simpson (1987), Lee Janzen (1998).

Noteworthy: The four players who finished second in the U.S. Opens at The Olympic Club won a combined 27 majors. The four winners won a combined seven majors.

Quoteworthy: "Now we are going to get back to where it's not going to be so much fun and games out there. It's going to be hard work."—Johnny Miller on Olympic Club.

Key statistic: The U.S. Open is the only major Tiger Woods has not won in consecutive years.

Key coincidence: The U.S. Open champion played with Phil Mickelson in the opening two rounds twice in the last four years.

Tiger tales: Tiger Woods has gone four years without winning a major. The longest Jack Nicklaus went without a major was five years, a drought that began at age 41.

Mac, you are seeing what you want to see as usual.
Only six players broke par all day and plenty players from every nationality had dreadful scores. Were they buckling under pressure too?

Yes Donald and Mcilroy had poor rounds, but that doesn't mean it was a pressure issue.

McDowell, Rose and Poulter are well in there and Westwood made a good recovery after an early blip.

I got Poulter at 60-1 which looks quite a tasty price now.

Good short game players should prosper on this course and he's always excelled in this area.
He's not short of confidence which rubs quite a few people up the wrong way but i've always liked him.

Talking about short game it's still the main part of Tigers game that isn't anywhere near the level it once was at. Some terrible bunker shots yesterday and he still doesn't look 100% confident with his putter.

He's hitting it great yes but he won't get away with having a sloppy short game over 4 rounds.

i stuck all my bets on the open championship by mistake!

stuck money on poults and rose- lol

had to lay them of the open champ market and put them back on at much lower prices

I've got Poulter too Oakey, Garcia also, unfortunately went for Kjeldsen too as a straight hitter. +15.

McLaren wrote:mysti

The average score (75.2) for the late afternoon groups - after 1400 tee off - was the same as the morning average. So yes, the brits cracked under pressure.

"Lies, damned lies and statistics" - what about the averages of the groups near the (are we really calling them this?) Brit 3 cf. the rest? How about +/- 1 hour of their start time?
Also, can you be more accurate in your statements? Westwood clearly didn't "crack" under any pressure. I'd agree with your earlier comment re. McIlroy though - I'm increasingly of the view that he's just a bit dumb with his "I'm not going to change my game for any given set of conditions" mentality.

Which starting hole may have made a difference as well?

super_realist wrote:I've got Poulter too Oakey, Garcia also, unfortunately went for Kjeldsen too as a straight hitter. +15.

Had to just take poults and rose at 27pts and 10pts on betfair. the only bet i made on by missing the SP was westy - who i got at 20/1.

I think we have to look at the leaders being at 1 under(not 4 under)

It makes things look alot more rosey(scuse the pun) for most of the field

Skydriver wrote:Which starting hole may have made a difference as well?

yes very good point- it would have done

From what i saw it seemed like those that started on the 1st struggled more.

Those that started on 9 were in a bit more of a flow before they tackled the nightmare first 6 holes.

Not seen any stats to back that up but would be interesting to see.

Yeah that first hole is a killer conedude , you would want to be warmed up abit before you talke that on!

McLaren wrote:Morning groups

A total of 410 over par
Average score 75.26

Afternoon groups

A total of 358 over par
Average score 74.59

‏@SkySportsGolf recent tweet says the opposite:

Not a huge am/pm scoring split. Morning 74.59, Afternoon 75.26...

Which one is right?

the truth is out

navy

what time did they tee off (san fran time)?

Actually scrap all i posted above about the scores and tee times.

I used round 2 tee times and round 1 scores. So assuming the tee times are roughly a reverse of round 1 then the afternoon was a little tougher.

Well the afternoon looked tougher so it does make alot of sense!

in fact it is just a reverse so

Morning
total score +358
average score 74.59

afternoon
total score +410
Average score 75.26

afternoon was harder by 0.67 shots.



navy

the average score for those 1 hour before and after the brit group was about bang on 75.

So does that mean they didn't bottle it Mac and they just played poorly on a very tough course indeed?

77 and 79 is bottling it. I would like to bet no one has ever won a major (post 1930) after shooting a first round 79. No matter how tought the course was.

i agree that donald bottled it, but only him. I could see how gutted he was on the course. I hope he fights it out and makes the cut mind- a 66 and he is back in the hunt

It isn't bottling it Mac, it could have been bad bounces, tough conditions, poor course management, bad lies, weather, shot shape, anything. 79 is poor, but it doesn't mean it's down to a lack of bottle at all.

If I asked you to run a mile up a steep hill in 6 minutes, I doubt you could do it, it wouldn't be because you bottled it, it would be because your tactics, fitness and ability on the day weren't up to the toughness of the course.
On another day though, you might fare better, and come closer to the stipulated time.

You simply cannot expect all players, regardless of world ranking to compete at their best all the time. It's impossible regardless of whether it's a major or not. In fact Thompson shot 66, so did Woods bottle it by not also shooting 66?
If your lovechild Woods had shot an 80, would you say he bottled it, or just excuse it as a bad day at the office, which is what it actually would be.

Super Post SR... Agree totally with that...

Im surprised the difference in scores between Morning & Afternoon was that close, looked at least 2 shots in difference in difficulty to me. The wind certainly got up for example.

The stat about the first 6 holes was crazy think it was about +430 at the end.

SR,

I think Luke Donald will be asking serious questions of himself........his Major Performances have been consistently at variance with the rest of his year and that is a huge problem for him.

I don't think it's "lack of bottle" because he has got plenty of guts, but there is a problem with Majors that he will have to fix.......it it is somewhat pressure related, it must be........

I agree donald has felt the heat during the recent first rounds of majors. it is deffo pressure related. it dosent add up otherwise.

Donald allways starts slow(best 4th round player by far)- but to start this slow is not logical unless he is wilting abit

Exactly John, it is only in majors that donald consistently plays so poorly. Are we to think that super is correct and that his physical skills are in no way suited to major lay outs? Or does he have some mental issues?

Donald has the game to win majors.

Donald doesnt play that poorly in the majors its just the first rounds, he puts him self out of the tourny and then fights for an ok finish. That tells me 100% that he has a mental block when having a chance to win a major- he relaxes when he is out of contention

Show me one golfer in the past five years who has performed consistently good in ALL four rounds in EVERY major of each of those years.

It just doesn't happen. These guys aren't robot's.

I'm not saying that Donald isn't physically suited to Majors, he clearly is the best golfer in the world and could play well everywhere, I'm saying that bad rounds/performances are part of every professional sportsmans' life, it happens to all of them frequently, we just highlight Donald's bad days more because he is A)#1 and B) hasn't won a major.

Bottle may very well come into the equation of every bad score, but when there are so many elements that combine to create a bad score, it's a bit presumptious to state that his 79 is due to lack of bottle alone.

it was a tough day and obviously US opens do punish bad drivers- donald isnt the best driver in the world- that certainly was a factor, its just on form he would have still been around par because he would have got up and down 80% of the time.

super_realist wrote:Show me one golfer in the past five years who has performed consistently good in ALL four rounds in EVERY major of each of those years.

It just doesn't happen. These guys aren't robot's...

Mickleson and Westwood at Augusta in 2010?

Ah. Sorry....left out the other three Majors of the year . Does one of the four do?

The problem for Donald is increasingly he is performing in pretty much every event except the majors. A lot of people thought this course would suit him, he is in form...so questions have to be asked about his ability to cope with the pressure.
As they say you cant win a major on the first day but you can lose it and he seems to be making a habit of doing that.

He certainly seems to have a problem with 1st rounds.

1 sub 70 round since 2006 in the 1st round of Majors according to the commentators last night needs addressing.

Nver seen him miss so many fairways and putt as he did yesterday for a long time.

He seemed to be a bit more agitated and animated yesterday than he normally is, I personally think that grouping definitely did not suit him and he wouldnt have chosen it.

I cashed in on Donald and McIlroy's poor play last night. They were offering odds of between 3/1 and 4/1 on them getting a bogey or worse at each hole they played. After their poor starts, I stuck £5 on both of them to bogey their holes. Ended up with Donald having 7 more and Rory 5.

Made up for me not picking any winners in the 3-balls.

Diggers wrote:He seemed to be a bit more agitated and animated yesterday than he normally is, I personally think that grouping definitely did not suit him and he wouldnt have chosen it.

He should be used to the "star" groupings by now though, although personally, i don't like them........

SR, to say Donald is "clearly" the best player in the World right now is pushing it a bit. There is no way he is at that level of superiority............

Care to name anyone better at the moment John?

Woods

Get lost. Nowhere near Donald's standard at the moment.
That man's name should be on the swear filter

Nobody has won more than Donald in the past 2 years or been more consistent.

I doubt we will ever see Tiger levels of domination again but Donald has seperated himself from the pack over the last few years in my opinion in terms of wins and top 10's.

My stats may be off but he's won 6 versus Tiger's 2 (not counting Chevron) in the last 2 years and missed nowhere near as many cuts.

Tiger may be "back" right now but he's not been in Donalds class recently.

I'm not saying he's not the best golfer in the world now, but if he is, it is not by much. I think McIlroy & Westwood are at the same level and Woods looks like he has returned to a place where he may kick on from and get back to No.1 before the year is out...............

Problem is, every time a Major comes around, Donald doesn't have an extra gear that some others have......it's all very well being World No.1 but if, as it looks like, this status is hindering his performance(especially in opening rounds) in Majors, then he has a problem.

Personally, i dont see him ever winning a Major.............

Is Donald golf's version of Wozniacki?

In general no one is better than donald, but at majors in the last two years I imagine others will have accumulated more OWGR points than donald has.

I would say so, Donald may have 6 victories to Tiger's 2 in recent times but i can hardly take that at face value. Woods as had swing changes and injuries, i think it's only fair to judge them on how they do at the end of a full season such as this and imo Tiger is more likely to have the better one, basically because he is a superior player in every department.

In every department?

There isn't a better player in the world from 130 yards and in then Donald right now. I'd back Donald from this range and putting, chipping and pitching than Woods anyday.

Woods game is incredibly streaky in all departments, and he doesn't at present do anything outstandingly.

I agree with SR.

Bar yesterday Donald's short iron play and putting has no equal. He went 449 holes without a 3 putt last year which is crazy. Tiger still looks a bit flaky with his putter and his driving seems under control now but could easily blow up today and be terrible.

2 wins each so far this season. The BMW win by far the biggest out of the 4 so far.

Will be interesting to see who has the most by the end of the season as I expect them both to at least win once more.

Donald might be better at getting up and down to win the Bangkok invitational but when has he ever done holed a sloping 10 footer on the last get in to a major, playoff or something similar. He's kind of similar to Andy Murray mentality wise in that there's no reason why he shouldnt win a major tournament (they have both won plenty of good tournaments wins) but just don't have it between the ears imo to win one of the big four. Tiger may be streaky these days but when it matters he more often than not delivers.

Maybe you can split it this way -
1. Who is the best player over the past 2 years - Donald
2. Who is the best player of 2012 thus far - Thats Coco according to the OWGR points gained.
3. Who is the hottest player on the planet right now - Probably Duffner or Kuchar ?
4. Who will finish 2012 as the best player of 2012 - Im thinking Woods but who knows.

Conehead wrote:I agree with SR.

Bar yesterday Donald's short iron play and putting has no equal. He went 449 holes without a 3 putt last year which is crazy. Tiger still looks a bit flaky with his putter and his driving seems under control now but could easily blow up today and be terrible.

2 wins each so far this season. The BMW win by far the biggest out of the 4 so far.

Will be interesting to see who has the most by the end of the season as I expect them both to at least win once more.

The BMW is not " by far the biggest", the Memorial and Bay Hill are two of the highly reguarded tournaments on the PGA tour. The Memorial field was at least as good as the field at the BMW.

"The Memorial field was at least as good as the field at the BMW."

It was actually about 15-20 points more than the actual BMW field strength.

Donald "clearly the best golfer in the world".

He's the #1 ranked golfer in the world, but IMO there are 3-5 others that you could make the case for being as good or better right now.

I expect Donald to make the cut and even be in the top 10 when this tournament is all said and done. But I don't expect him to win this thing, which will make him, what, 0-35 in majors. In my opinion, he clearly has issues managing the pressure of a major championship. (But, he's certainly not alone in that regard.)

We seemed to have slipped into Majors chat when i thought we were comparing who was better at the moment Woods or Donald?

I don't think turning up at the Transistions last year knowing only a win would guarantee you the money title and then winning or defending back to back BMW's could suggest anything other than Donald CAN handle pressure.

Whether he can handle it at the majors-well his record speaks for itself.

Points wise maybe the Memorial was bigger but I would view the European Tour's flagship event as a more prestigious title to win this season.

I'm sure if you offered the likes of Luke,Rory,Westy,Poults The Memorial or The BMW they would all take the latter.