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PGA Tour: The Olympic Game: Notes from the Ballwasher

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Post by incontinentia Sat 09 Jun 2012, 2:06 pm

First topic message reminder :

1).Notes this week from the Land That WiFi Forgot; but the beach cricket pitches are spectacular - if anyone only knew how to play. So: Notes very short, if not sweet.

2).Last week's entertainment in Memphis was predictably unpredictable. Good to have Dustin Johnson back in Victory Lane, but a short stint in front of the telly would have suggested that, if Rory had made just half the putts he missed under five feet, he'd have probably won.

3).Glimmer of form from two unlikely Aussie sources with Nick O'Hern registering his first top 25 finish of the season. Expect him also to play well in Hartford in a fortnight. And Robert Allenby was back on the leaderboard after a couple of months in the weeds. Allenby, who could always be depended upon for his ball-striking - and his unpredictable short game. Now the whole lot has been unpredictable. Maybe that will change with some confidence from a good result..

4).More good results from Greg Owen, now almost certain to qualify, not just for The Barclays, but for the Deutsche Bank also.

5).Dustin Johnson now has six wins since 2007 - only Woods (16), Mickelson (10), Stricker (9) and Zach (7) have more. About 3/1 against one of those five increasing his total this week?

6).Robert Karlsson has sunk to #50 in the World Rankings, perhaps just a continuation of his rotten form away from leaving for the Top 50 for the first time in over 4 years. The leaders in consecutive weeks in the top 50 might surprise:
Mickelson - 968
Donald - 406
Poulter - 299
Stricker - 275
Zach Johnson - 270
Westwood - 249
Kaymer - 229

7).No-one has won the US Open after winning on the PGA Tour the previous week, in recent history at least. Dustin Johnson has a lot to prove and his successes (and an ultimate disappointment) at Pebble Beach suggest that he's a strong candidate to upset that line in the record book. But the past two US Opens at Olympic have been won by Scott Simpson and Lee Janzen, top-class golfers to be sure but known better for steady play and sometimes excellent short games. Furyk-like, Donald, Stricker? Not sure I've got the faintest idea, but Olympic will certainly test the patience.

8).More as an item of interest than an indicator for this week, the 1998 leaders from this week's field include:
5th: Stricker
7th: Westwood
10th: Cink, Mickelson
14th: Furyk, Kuchar
18th: Woods
23rd: Casey Martin
25th: Bjorn, Singh,
32nd: Durant, Harrington
43th: Olin Browne
49th: Els

9).The forecast for Thursday and Friday at least suggests cool, breezy weather with temps not reaching 70F until the weekend. Combined with the traditional "heavy" ocean air, the course yardage of approx 7,100 yards will play much longer, especially given the very narrow actual landing areas on some fairways caused by the sloped landing areas. I'd guess that will favour a Westwood over a Donald, a Mahan over a Stricker, but really can't think of any "favourite".

10).So who are we going to be staying up late to see crowned "US Open Champion"? Not McIlroy or Donald for me, and not Bubba or even Tiger, despite his return to winning form at Memorial. In 2009 he won each of his last pre-Major start but came up empty; it would be a brave punter who bet on a repeat, but this may not be the opportunity for him. Best bet might be e.w. on someone like Peter Hanson. Or even a real stretch, Spencer Levin. And by that time I’ll have returned to the land of wi-fi.



From incontinentia (merged from another thread):


Site: The Olympic Club (Lake Course)

The course: The Lake Course was designed in 1924 by Willie Watson and Sam Whiting, and then Whiting redesigned it three years later because of significant storm damage. Its main characteristics are sloping, tree-lined fairways as the property works its way down toward Lake Merced. There is only one fairway bunker on the entire course, at the par-4 sixth. There have been minimal renovations over the years, except for a new hole created for the par-3 eighth that now plays 200 yards and was moved to the right. Hundreds of trees have been removed, opening views down toward Lake Merced.

Length: 7,170 yards
Par: 34-36—70

Last time at Olympic Club: Lee Janzen overcame a five-shot deficit against Payne Stewart and closed with a 2-under 68 for a two-shot victory. Janzen got a huge break in the final round when his ball, stuck in a tree on the fifth hole, was dislodged as Janzen was headed back to the tee to play his third shot. It was his second U.S. Open title.

U.S. Open champions at Olympic Club: Jack Fleck (1955), Billy Casper (1966), Scott Simpson (1987), Lee Janzen (1998).

Noteworthy: The four players who finished second in the U.S. Opens at The Olympic Club won a combined 27 majors. The four winners won a combined seven majors.

Quoteworthy: "Now we are going to get back to where it's not going to be so much fun and games out there. It's going to be hard work."—Johnny Miller on Olympic Club.

Key statistic: The U.S. Open is the only major Tiger Woods has not won in consecutive years.

Key coincidence: The U.S. Open champion played with Phil Mickelson in the opening two rounds twice in the last four years.

Tiger tales: Tiger Woods has gone four years without winning a major. The longest Jack Nicklaus went without a major was five years, a drought that began at age 41.
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Post by Leff Sat 16 Jun 2012, 2:26 am

Seen Tim Herron's scoop from the rough on the 18th? He hit it up in the air and it landed straight in the hole without landing and rolling!

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Post by monty junior Sat 16 Jun 2012, 2:27 am

Think Tiger could have been a fair bit better but you can't argue with how he's hitting it, especially from the tea.

Good recovery from Phil today, played much much better and look like he had some kind of control.

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Post by mthierry Sat 16 Jun 2012, 2:32 am

Tiger would be slightly disappointed. He hit it so well but couldn't gain the outright lead.

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Post by Leff Sat 16 Jun 2012, 2:37 am

Most of the top-ranked players have managed to make the cut.
Failing the cut-line are:
Oosthuizen
Bubba W
Rory Mac
Dustin J (probably)
Mr Donald (who else)

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Post by Leff Sat 16 Jun 2012, 2:53 am

Who on earth is this guy?
http://www.usopen.com/en_US/players/bios/35541.html

His bio reads Baton Rouge, Texas. Isn't that in Louisiana?

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Post by mystiroakey Sat 16 Jun 2012, 8:43 am

monty junior wrote:
mystiroakey wrote:
monty junior wrote:
mystiroakey wrote:Tiger has more chance getting a 3 some invloving his ex wife

Pretty sure he could get that arranged

the women is mental- she bulldozed there old home. i doubt she ever wanted to bone him anyway as the guy is plain ugly with no personailty- Now she has his zillions she wouldnt touch him with yours

Can't all be as handsome as yourself i take it PGA Tour: The Olympic Game: Notes from the Ballwasher - Page 9 3187153522

If tiger had a top personality he would be alot more handsome pal, His ugliness comes from within PGA Tour: The Olympic Game: Notes from the Ballwasher - Page 9 732107. I personaly think he is a bit missunderstood and that he is probally allright.. But what do i know

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Post by Skydriver Sat 16 Jun 2012, 9:00 am

princedracula wrote:Unfortunate missed cut by Luke and not a great timing either...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/18457011

‏@LukeDonald Chuffed to bits about the MBE, cheers for all the messages, I better start playing better in the majors otherwise they might take it away:)

I'm sure a lot of people were expecting this, given that his amazing double tour win last year was too late to make the New Year list. I'm glad that the award has been bestowed whilst he is world #1 though.

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Post by mystiroakey Sat 16 Jun 2012, 9:14 am

he deserves it- well done luke- obviously he feels the same as we do when it comes to majors. And i think that comment shows he has a clear issue with it- which possibly is affecting his day 1 major performances

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Post by princedracula Sat 16 Jun 2012, 9:58 am

Agreed, well deserved recognition for what Luke has achieved and for the kind of person he is! Mind you, already came across some naughty 'jokes' on the net (e.g. is that Luke Donald MBE or Luke Donald MC Rolling Eyes )

I haven't seen this yesterday but just found this piece somewhere this morning:

A USGA rules official warned the group of Ian Poulter, Steve Stricker and Matt Kuchar that they were about to go on the clock for being out of position. This did not sit well with Poulter, who said the group would speed up only to stand around and wait.

That's exactly what happened one hole later, all three of them standing in the sixth fairway for about five minutes as the group ahead was on the green.

Told that the group was no longer on the clock, it was all Poulter could take.

"Why are you doing this?" Poulter said to the official, who wanted no part of an argument and simply shrugged his shoulders. "This is stupid."

Stricker was not thrilled with the move either, being put on the clock for less than a hole. Poulter wouldn't let it go, however, and said he wanted to speak to another official. Minutes later, European Tour chief referee Andy McFee arrived in a cart.

The conversation could not be heard, but it began with McFee sternly holding up his hand and saying, "Calm down."

It didn't affect Poulter too much. From the rough, he hit a fairway metal near the green and got his par


To me it just goes to show once again the rather 'chaotic' manner in which officials are trying to 'do' (or trying to be seen like they're doing) something about slow play...

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Post by Skydriver Sat 16 Jun 2012, 10:16 am

I would have paid money to see the scene unfold if he had said "calm down, dear".

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Post by John Cregan Sat 16 Jun 2012, 11:07 am

Fair play to Poulter................

Not best pleased with the late tee times today..............9.15 local start time with a big field...............11.05 BST start for the final group meaming 3.30am finish.............................they usually go earlier for the Sunday i think(i hope)...

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Post by incontinentia Sat 16 Jun 2012, 11:14 am

John Cregan wrote:Fair play to Poulter................

Not best pleased with the late tee times today..............9.15 local start time with a big field...............11.05 BST start for the final group meaming 3.30am finish.............................they usually go earlier for the Sunday i think(i hope)...

yeah the late rounds are annoying, tried to stay up for it all last night but due to the hangover from the Ireland match could only last to 1 a.m. But will definately stay up sunday night, screw work on monday!
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Post by McLaren Sat 16 Jun 2012, 12:49 pm

Does anyone have the scoring averages for morning and afternoon yesterday? I forgot to record the tee times so cant get the figured. I suspect there may have been a bigger split yesterday.
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Post by LastDamnation Sat 16 Jun 2012, 1:14 pm

Still pretty open, I think +2/+3 wins this. Still like Furyk to win

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Post by robopz Sat 16 Jun 2012, 1:36 pm

McLaren wrote:Does anyone have the scoring averages for morning and afternoon yesterday? I forgot to record the tee times so cant get the figured. I suspect there may have been a bigger split yesterday.

Friday morning wave scoring average = 73.72
Friday afternoon wave scoring average = 74.33

Friday AM/PM difference .61 compared to .67 on Thursday.



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Post by Leff Sat 16 Jun 2012, 2:03 pm

Now that the field is past the cut-line, who do you predict will win the championship? Pick 5 players.

My picks:
Woods
Furyk
GMac
KJ Choi
Dufner

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Post by mthierry Sat 16 Jun 2012, 2:09 pm

Woods is missing too many putts to win. Furyk and GMac could take it. Wouldn't rule out some nobody doing so.

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Post by robopz Sat 16 Jun 2012, 2:42 pm

A little breakdown on the three leaders and their history with 2nd round leads.

TIGER WOODS...

Has held or tied for the 2nd round lead 42 times in his career. 34 times he's gone on to win. Nine times Woods has held the 2nd round lead in a major, converting eight of those to wins. The loss was the 2009 PGA Championship in which he finished 2nd to Yang. I won't list all 42, but here are the 9 majors. (Year - Event - Margin after 2nd round - score to par after rd 2 - result)

1997 Masters Tournament 3 over Montgomerie -8 W
2000 U.S. Open 6 over Bjorn, Jimenez -8 W
2000 British Open 3 over Toms -11 W
2000 PGA Championship 1 over Dunlap -11 W
2002 U.S. Open 3 over Harrington -5 W
2005 British Open 4 over Montgomerie -11 W
2006 British Open 1 over Els -12 W
2007 PGA Championship 2 over Verplank -6 W
2009 PGA Championship 4 over Singh, Harrington, Glover, Fisher, B. Jones -7 2nd

Note: In the 9 majors above, Tiger held the outright lead... this year is the first time he's had a 2nd round co-lead with other players in a major.

JIM FURYK....

Prior to this week, Furyk has held a 2nd round lead 18 times in his career converting 4 of those to wins. Only one time did he have the 2nd round lead in a major, 2003 U.S. Open co-lead with Vijay Singh in which Furyk went on to win. Here's all 18 times.

1995 United Airlines Hawaiian Open tie Cochran, Fabel, Stricker -5 W
1997 AT&T Pebble Beach 1 over Frost -12 4th
1998 Buick Classic (**) tie Hayes -9 2nd
2001 WGC-NEC Invitational 2 over Mickelson, Woods -9 2nd
2002 Invensys Classic at Las Vegas (*) tie Howell -12 4th
2003 AT&T Pebble Beach 1 over five players -7 T5
2003 U.S. Open tie Singh -7 W
2004 Buick Open tie Singh, Andrade -11 T6
2005 Barclays Classic 1 over Gay -8 2nd
2006 Sony Open in Hawaii tie Campbell -6 T7
2006 PLAYERS Championship 1 over Ames, Scott -8 T3
2006 Verizon Heritage 2 over four players -11 2nd
2007 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am tie Mickelson -12 T6
2007 Buick Open tie Kenny Perry, Quigley -10 T5
2009 the Memorial Tournament tie Byrd -7 2nd
2009 Deutsche Bank Championship tie O'Hair -12 T8
2010 Verizon Heritage tie Owen, Howell III -7 W
2010 TOUR Championship tie Donald -8 W

DAVID TOMS

Prior to this week, Toms has held a 2nd round lead 14 times in his career, converting 4 of those into wins. Similar to Furyk, Toms' only major 2nd round lead was a co-lead (with Katayama) in the 2001 PGA Championship in which he went on to win. Here's Toms' 14 second round leads/co-leads and the results.

1992 Kemper Open tie Blake, Fabel, Gilder -8 T25
1994 Buick Invitational 2 over Black, Wurtz -14 T15
1999 Buick Challenge tie Appleby, Frazar -10 W
2000 MasterCard Colonial tie Love -7 T4
2001 PGA Championship tie Katayama -9 W
2002 Mercedes Championships tie K Perry -11 2nd
2003 WGC-NEC Invitational tie Riley -7 T33
2004 FedEx St. Jude Classic 1 over V Taylor -12 W
2006 The Honda Classic 1 over Mayfair -10 T3
2007 Travelers Championship tie Williamson -8 T6
2010 McGladrey Classic 1 over Durant -10 4th
2011 THE PLAYERS 1 over Watney -10 P2
2011 Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial 7 over Bowditch, Senden, Wilson, Wi -16 W
2012 Humana Challenge tie Wilson, Crane -16 T6

Source: PGA Tour


Last edited by robopz on Sat 16 Jun 2012, 2:43 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by princedracula Sat 16 Jun 2012, 2:43 pm

robopz wrote:Friday morning wave scoring average = 73.72
Friday afternoon wave scoring average = 74.33
I got something only slightly different:
Rd#1: 74.59 (AM) vs 75.26 (PM) Overall: 74.92
Rd#2: 73.82 (AM) vs 74.28 (PM) Overall: 74.05 (my own calculations)

But the interesting thing is that obviously the course played about a full shot easier on Friday, contrary to what we've heard from players/commentators most of the time yesterday. Maybe it's because we're hearing and seeing most of the time only some selected top players (whose experience may be different to the average out there) and listen to all those tv 'experts'...

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Post by robopz Sat 16 Jun 2012, 2:58 pm

princedracula wrote:
robopz wrote:Friday morning wave scoring average = 73.72
Friday afternoon wave scoring average = 74.33
I got something only slightly different:
Rd#1: 74.59 (AM) vs 75.26 (PM) Overall: 74.92
Rd#2: 73.82 (AM) vs 74.28 (PM) Overall: 74.05 (my own calculations)

But the interesting thing is that obviously the course played about a full shot easier on Friday, contrary to what we've heard from players/commentators most of the time yesterday. Maybe it's because we're hearing and seeing most of the time only some selected top players (whose experience may be different to the average out there) and listen to all those tv 'experts'...

PD... I believe yours are probably correct... I did mine as they were finishing last night... and at the time I finished, my total scoring average "jived" with what was online at the time. Thus I'm thinking there must have been some adjustments to the online scoring after I checked out because my total strokes for the entire field are a few strokes off and I didn't go back to find the discrepancy... I had total Friday scr/avg at 74.026... USGA site has it at 74.051 (my difference is 4 strokes.) But still... the difference from AM to PM is "relatively" insignificant (and pretty much equaled out between the two days).

And I agree with you on the overall scoring average... From hearing the talk, I would have guessed Friday scoring would have been higher as well. Perhaps, the course actually WAS more difficult on Friday, but maybe the players were more acclimated to the conditions and played better, despite the more difficult course?
.


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Post by mystiroakey Sat 16 Jun 2012, 3:01 pm

Once you know the course after one competitive round you are gonna adjust to it better- i doubt its a full shot mind- mabe half a shot

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Post by robopz Sat 16 Jun 2012, 3:11 pm

mystiroakey wrote:Once you know the course after one competitive round you are gonna adjust to it better- i doubt its a full shot mind- mabe half a shot

Guess it would be hard to know just how much better one would play. But for certain, several of the players seemed kind of shocked at the difference of the course from Wednesday practice round to Thursday's first round in competition.

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Post by George1507 Sat 16 Jun 2012, 3:20 pm

robopz wrote:
princedracula wrote:
robopz wrote:Friday morning wave scoring average = 73.72
Friday afternoon wave scoring average = 74.33
I got something only slightly different:
Rd#1: 74.59 (AM) vs 75.26 (PM) Overall: 74.92
Rd#2: 73.82 (AM) vs 74.28 (PM) Overall: 74.05 (my own calculations)

But the interesting thing is that obviously the course played about a full shot easier on Friday, contrary to what we've heard from players/commentators most of the time yesterday. Maybe it's because we're hearing and seeing most of the time only some selected top players (whose experience may be different to the average out there) and listen to all those tv 'experts'...

PD... I believe yours are probably correct... I did mine as they were finishing last night... and at the time I finished, my total scoring average "jived" with what was online at the time. Thus I'm thinking there must have been some adjustments to the online scoring after I checked out because my total strokes for the entire field are a few strokes off and I didn't go back to find the discrepancy... I had total Friday scr/avg at 74.026... USGA site has it at 74.051 (my difference is 4 strokes.) But still... the difference from AM to PM is "relatively" insignificant (and pretty much equaled out between the two days).

And I agree with you on the overall scoring average... From hearing the talk, I would have guessed Friday scoring would have been higher as well. Perhaps, the course actually WAS more difficult on Friday, but maybe the players were more acclimated to the conditions and played better, despite the more difficult course?
.

Comparing scores from day one and day two is meaningful, because it's the same players on both days. Comparing morning and afternoon is not meaningful because just a small number of players having a good round either side of lunchtime could sway the average one way or the other.

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Post by mystiroakey Sat 16 Jun 2012, 3:21 pm

The us open is intense.. margins are so much higher- in practise things are relaxed and all about getting a feel- most wont play a 'conditioned' round- its all about practsiing certain shots and getting a feel for the course

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Post by princedracula Sat 16 Jun 2012, 3:26 pm

robopz wrote:And I agree with you on the overall scoring average... From hearing the talk, I would have guessed Friday scoring would have been higher as well. Perhaps, the course actually WAS more difficult on Friday, but maybe the players were more acclimated to the conditions and played better, despite the more difficult course?
robo, I'm sure that's true to an extent, but then differences in scoring averages from one day to another can also come from things like different tee and/or pin positions, etc...

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Post by LastDamnation Sat 16 Jun 2012, 3:31 pm

For sure, the 16th alone played about half a shot easier I think

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Post by Leff Sat 16 Jun 2012, 4:16 pm

robopz, Thanks for informative stats for Woods, Toms and Furyk.

In most cases, the stats should give us a good idea of how well a player might do after leading 36 holes. This course is extremely difficult for scoring and expected to be even more difficult on the 3rd and 4th. Seemingly good shots may roll in favour and if you are unlucky, set you on a rapid downward path. As such, I reckon players who are currently in the 10th position have as much as chance of winning as the leaders.

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Post by sirbenson Sat 16 Jun 2012, 5:24 pm

Will be fascinated how they set up the course today!

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Post by sirbenson Sat 16 Jun 2012, 5:30 pm

http://twitter.com/GolfweekMag/status/214029788074090496/photo/1

Pin Placements!

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Post by robopz Sat 16 Jun 2012, 5:36 pm

Leff wrote:robopz, Thanks for informative stats for Woods, Toms and Furyk.

In most cases, the stats should give us a good idea of how well a player might do after leading 36 holes. This course is extremely difficult for scoring and expected to be even more difficult on the 3rd and 4th. Seemingly good shots may roll in favour and if you are unlucky, set you on a rapid downward path. As such, I reckon players who are currently in the 10th position have as much as chance of winning as the leaders.

Good points. I tend to look at stats more out of interest of HOW something happened instead of using them too heavily in predicting what will happen next. I believe there's enough in just those lists of Tiger, Furyk and Tom's 2nd round leads... to make a good case for any one of the three.

But not sure I can agree that guys in 10th have just as good a chance. Certainly A chance, but not as good. It's so hard to shoot anything better than 70.. so a guy 10th (T9 actually) not only has to do that... but he needs some really, really quality players to tread water or fall back. Those at T9 are 4 shots back... that means one of those guys have to beat Tiger, Furyk and Toms, by 4 shots over the weekend just to make a playoff. I'm not saying someone won't or can't do it... just that it's not good odds for any one of them.

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Post by monty junior Sat 16 Jun 2012, 5:54 pm

When do the leaders tee off?

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Post by John Cregan Sat 16 Jun 2012, 5:57 pm

Robo,

Any idea on why they waited till 9.15 to get the 3rd Round underway, especially with the large number of qualifiers???

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Post by McLaren Sat 16 Jun 2012, 5:58 pm

robo

i agree with you when you say that those at +4 will have to shoot much better than seems possible at the moment to win. People seem to think tough scoring means more players are in with a chance, but what it really means is that making up each shot is more difficult.
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Post by John Cregan Sat 16 Jun 2012, 5:58 pm

monty junior wrote:When do the leaders tee off?

11.05 BST thumbsdown

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Post by sirbenson Sat 16 Jun 2012, 5:58 pm

John Cregan wrote:Robo,

Any idea on why they waited till 9.15 to get the 3rd Round underway, especially with the large number of qualifiers???

It is to do with TV....and catering for a prime time finish for Eastern time apparently....

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Post by monty junior Sat 16 Jun 2012, 5:59 pm

John Cregan wrote:
monty junior wrote:When do the leaders tee off?

11.05 BST thumbsdown

Cack, i'll miss all of it Sad

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Post by robopz Sat 16 Jun 2012, 6:16 pm

John Cregan wrote:Robo,

Any idea on why they waited till 9.15 to get the 3rd Round underway, especially with the large number of qualifiers???

sirbenson is correct. It's all about TV. When majors play on the West Coast it gives the networks a chance to broadcast in Prime Time in the East Coast... so they figure the starting time for the final group... then go back in 10 minute increments from there.

And actually... 72 is NOT a lot playing in round 3 and 4. If the 10-shot rule would still have been in effect, then the 22 players at +9 would be in as well. Now that (94) would have been a large number.

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Post by princedracula Sat 16 Jun 2012, 6:22 pm

No matter of the final results, a big cheer to some of the European or ET players who are making their first ever US Open cut, especially deserved considering the tough test they've been facing this week against the elite of world golf: Colsaerts, Jacquelin, Dyson, Grace, Warren and Baldwin! And the last three are achieving this at the very first attempt! Colsaerts obviously in with a very good chance for an even greater achievement...

Happy Birthday to Fujita (he's 43 today), also making the cut... although I'm not sure if having to go through another grueling round of golf on that course would be my idea of a fun birthday celebration...


Last edited by princedracula on Sat 16 Jun 2012, 7:29 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : 43 not 42)

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Post by robopz Sat 16 Jun 2012, 6:25 pm

sirbenson wrote:http://twitter.com/GolfweekMag/status/214029788074090496/photo/1

Pin Placements!

Here's a pdf printable version of the pin sheet for anyone who would care to have one...

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B28-0Wqx5A38WVlGUnc4Uzh2WkE

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Post by mystiroakey Sat 16 Jun 2012, 6:25 pm

McLaren wrote:robo

i agree with you when you say that those at +4 will have to shoot much better than seems possible at the moment to win. People seem to think tough scoring means more players are in with a chance, but what it really means is that making up each shot is more difficult.

I dont completley agree actually- if you have a look back at tough scoring events(namely opens or us opens) you will find many winners out of the top groups.

Its not about making up shots so much . You can look at it the other way and say its harder for the top boys to keep getting pars. And when pressure is up its magnified on trickier set ups..

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Post by robopz Sat 16 Jun 2012, 6:37 pm

mystiroakey wrote:
McLaren wrote:robo

i agree with you when you say that those at +4 will have to shoot much better than seems possible at the moment to win. People seem to think tough scoring means more players are in with a chance, but what it really means is that making up each shot is more difficult.

I dont completley agree actually- if you have a look back at tough scoring events(namely opens or us opens) you will find many winners out of the top groups.

Its not about making up shots so much . You can look at it the other way and say its harder for the top boys to keep getting pars. And when pressure is up its magnified on trickier set ups..

I don't think the point is someone other than the current leaders can't win, just that it's gonna be tough against this particular group of leaders. Certainly anyone left in the field "can" win this... but the further back you go the harder it gets. IMO one of the big problems for anyone in catching Woods, Furyk and Toms, is that they are a combined 10 out of 11 in converting 2nd round major leads into wins (Tiger 8/9 and Furyk and Toms 1/1) . Granted at least TWO of those guys will fail to convert a 2nd round lead into a win this week, and sure all three might... But IMO... this is a case of solid leaders... and IMO ALL three of them aren't likely to fold... could happen... but my guess is it's going to need to be a case of someone playing GREAT and catching them, instead of waiting on all three to fall back.

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Post by mystiroakey Sat 16 Jun 2012, 7:02 pm

actually take back what i said- i checked out my theory- and i think it is true for the open, however not so for the us open.. most winners are pretty close to the lead after day 3- if not day 2 as well!!

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Post by McLaren Sat 16 Jun 2012, 7:05 pm

So mysti

you think Furyk, woods and toms will all shoot 73 73 and that someone at say +4 will go 68 68 to pass the players at +1 who also play well over the weekend?
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Post by mystiroakey Sat 16 Jun 2012, 7:13 pm

well no but they wouldnt need to shoot 73 73 would they if another player shoots 68 68- thats a 10 shot swing.

no one is gonna gain on 1 under- i predicted +3 to win this. I am now leaning towards plus 1.

The likely winner is from the top 3 pedegree players- however if someone at +5 or +4 can shoot a 66 and a 70 or a 71 they may have a chance- i cant see two 68's- i just cant..

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Post by mystiroakey Sat 16 Jun 2012, 7:29 pm

one example of a crazy final day for a US open was in 2007 when cabrerra won..

he had 6 players in front of him final day(4 back from the lead)- only shot a 1 under par round and won!!- something to note- furyk and woods were also in that mix

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Post by Leff Sat 16 Jun 2012, 8:07 pm

Cabrera is -2 today after first 8 holes!

Among the first 6 holes, #3 and #4 are yielding the most birdies.

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Post by mystiroakey Sat 16 Jun 2012, 8:12 pm

nice!

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Post by George1507 Sat 16 Jun 2012, 8:15 pm

robopz wrote:
John Cregan wrote:Robo,

Any idea on why they waited till 9.15 to get the 3rd Round underway, especially with the large number of qualifiers???

sirbenson is correct. It's all about TV. When majors play on the West Coast it gives the networks a chance to broadcast in Prime Time in the East Coast... so they figure the starting time for the final group... then go back in 10 minute increments from there.

And actually... 72 is NOT a lot playing in round 3 and 4. If the 10-shot rule would still have been in effect, then the 22 players at +9 would be in as well. Now that (94) would have been a large number.

That's not really true in this case. The final start time is 3.05 PDT, which is 6.05 EDT. So the finish will be about 7.05 PDT, which is 10.05 EDT. That's not prime time, but might be good to catch some people on the east coast before they go to bed after watching the baseball.

It's hard to see anyone on worse than +3 coming through. OK, only four shots, but there are about 20 players ahead of anyone on +4, and they aren't all going to fail.


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Post by Leff Sat 16 Jun 2012, 8:33 pm

Cabrera bogeyed the 9th. Now at +7, it would be long climb for him.

Among the ones with still a chance, stars of the day so far are Cejka (-2 day) at +5 and Webb Simpson (-1 day) at +4.

Greece has just scored a goal in an otherwise listless match.

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Post by mystiroakey Sat 16 Jun 2012, 8:35 pm

greece have scored- well that has totally mashed things up for the other two teams then

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