Olympic Day 6 Thread

[The Special Juan]

First topic message reminder :

Centre Court: Azarenka v Kerber then Djokovic v Tsonga then Federer v Isner then Clijsters v Sharapova

Court 1: Almagro v Murray then Serena Williams v Wozniacki then Nishikori v Del Potro then Robson/Murray v Hradecka/Stepanek

Court 2: Bryan/Bryan v Erlich/Ram then Kvitova v Kirilenko then Lisicki/Kas v Huber/B Bryan then Williams/Williams v Vinci/Errani

Court 14: Cilic/Dodig v Ferrer/Lopez then Peng/Zheng v Kirilenko/Perova then Mirza/Paes v Zimnjic/Ivanovic

Court 16: Hlavackova/Hredecka v Chuang/Hsieh then Tipsarevic/Zimonjic v Gasquet/Benneteau then Melo/Soares v Tsonga/Llodra

Some real crackers there.

[break_in_the_fifth]

The only way Novak has had a tougher draw is that he got Murray in the semi who is probably tougher than anyone else Fed could have drawn. I don't think there's enough in the difference between Tsonga and Isner for this to be a big deal.

As for Novak always getting screwed, well Fed is also having to play Novak so if anyone is benefitting from this it's Nadal and not Fedal.

[break_in_the_fifth]

I just don't get what's going on with Nadal, was he really injured at Wimbledon then?

[User 774433]

The only way Novak has had a tougher draw is that he got Murray in the semi who is probably tougher than anyone else Fed could have drawn. I don't think there's enough in the difference between Tsonga and Isner for this to be a big deal.

As for Novak always getting screwed, well Fed is also having to play Novak so if anyone is benefitting from this it's Nadal and not Fedal.

What?!
Before Wimbledon Nadal was number 2 and Djokovic number 1. Federer could have either drawn Nadal or Djokovic in the semi as he was number 3 (before W). Are you suggesting Federer would prefer Nadal to Djokovic.

[The Special Juan]

I just don't get what's going on with Nadal, was he really injured at Wimbledon then?

After his defeat to Rosol I think he said hinted that he was 100%. I can't remember what he said but I remember at the time thinking "What a cryptic answer."

[break_in_the_fifth]

Yeah I guess so but in this instance it's Nadal who's benefitting over Djokovic as Fed is the tougher opponent than Murray.

[User 774433]

Yeah I guess so but in this instance it's Nadal who's benefitting over Djokovic as Fed is the tougher opponent than Murray.

Well it only happened once at FO 2011, apart from that it didn't help him at all. And remember it could only affect him indirectly- it's not that he has a preference between Murray and Federer (in-fact his record in slams against Andy is worse); but as you said if Djokovic can go out that would be good for him- but this only happened once in FO 2011, and on B05 clay he can beat Djokovic too.

For Federer you feel he combinations have been perfect. Earlier on he used to struggle against Murray- I remember at one point he was 2-6 down in the H2H against Murray. Not that he really feared Andy in slams, but still Murray was seen as a far bigger threat than Djokovic, in-fact Djokovic used to be Fed's pet puppy in slams (apart from 2008 AO where he had mono) until late 2010 when Djokovic started his rise. So drawing Djoko rather than Murray was great for him. Then it was between Nadal and Djokovic, and in slams it is fair to say he struggles against Nadal more, well in the matches so far anyway. So it was good for him to get Djokovic rather than Nadal really.

Anyway not it all changes. Now the permutation is either Murray or Nadal in slams

[User 774433]

I just don't get what's going on with Nadal, was he really injured at Wimbledon then?

He probably didn't bother playing Olympics because he knew he had no chance.
These days Nadal can't even get past R2 at major tournaments (Wimbledon, Halle etc.), why even bother?

Edit: Breaking news is Nadal pulls out of Toronto
FFS I'm not going to watch any of it. This is so f*~#ing frustrating.

[lags72]

socal - I'll give this one last shot in the fervent hope that you will introduce at least a little balance to what I can only call UNbalanced, extremist views.

Think about what you're saying here ......

"Delpo has no prayer against the greatest grass court player of all time on this surface"

NO PRAYER. Repeat, NO PRAYER.

Really ...??

This is akin to saying that the outcome of the match is an absolute certainty.

If you truly believe this, then I suggest you bet your mortgage (if you have one) and all your wordly goods, and reap the easy rewards when Federer takes the match - which clearly you regard as 100% guaranteed. Delpo has NO PRAYER remember, so you've simply nothing to fear as regards the bet ; it's a sure-fire winner.

But, just before you place your bet, please allow me to point out a couple of things you might want to take into account.

1. This is sport we're talking about and there are no certainties in sport (in fact many say there are no certainties in life generally apart from death and taxes ).

2. If you need proof of point 1. you only have to take a quick look at history. And not too distant history either ......

Pete Sampras, June 2002 : already an amazing seven-times Wimbledon champion, Pete faced Georges Bastl at SW19 in R64.

Bastl was ranked 145 (even his highest-ever rank was only 71) and he never won a senior tournament of any description throughout his career.

He was the sort of guy who you MIGHT say did not have "a prayer" against Sampras - who was then the exact same age as Federer is now, and just a couple of months from another USO trophy. His last Slam victory of course.

Sampras had the luxury of five sets in that encounter rather than the lottery of 3. BUT it was Bastl who came out the winner.

Now let's fast forward to the present, and specifically tomorrow's semi.

Juan Martin del Potro is a former Slam champion ; highest ranking 4. He has the knowledge that he HAS actually beaten Federer twice (but has lost 12 admittedly). This is no journeyman player there to make up the numbers in "cupcake draws". Not like a .... let me think .... oh, a Georges Bastl perhaps.

socal, I challenge you to repeat what you have just said, viz :

"Delpo has no prayer"

If you actually do repeat it, whether in some fruitless effort to support your earlier 'indisputable' claims, or just because you are determined not to see sense and feel you will lose face, well then I really do give up on you.

[JuliusHMarx]

Lags, I blame the brits.

[break_in_the_fifth]

Yeah I guess so but in this instance it's Nadal who's benefitting over Djokovic as Fed is the tougher opponent than Murray.

Well it only happened once at FO 2011, apart from that it didn't help him at all. And remember it could only affect him indirectly- it's not that he has a preference between Murray and Federer (in-fact his record in slams against Andy is worse); but as you said if Djokovic can go out that would be good for him- but this only happened once in FO 2011, and on B05 clay he can beat Djokovic too.

For Federer you feel he combinations have been perfect. Earlier on he used to struggle against Murray- I remember at one point he was 2-6 down in the H2H against Murray. Not that he really feared Andy in slams, but still Murray was seen as a far bigger threat than Djokovic, in-fact Djokovic used to be Fed's pet puppy in slams (apart from 2008 AO where he had mono) until late 2010 when Djokovic started his rise. So drawing Djoko rather than Murray was great for him. Then it was between Nadal and Djokovic, and in slams it is fair to say he struggles against Nadal more, well in the matches so far anyway. So it was good for him to get Djokovic rather than Nadal really.

Anyway not it all changes. Now the permutation is either Murray or Nadal in slams

Well it depends on who you think is the better player, I think Murray was better than Djokovic so whoever drew Murray had the tougher draw. I still think on paper Murray has been better than Djokovic all along too so going by that Nadal had it harder always drawing Murray. Thing is though socal is going on about how tough it is for Novak always drawing Fed or them 2 always being put together. So on the one hand it's a disadvantage for Novak to draw Fed but then somehow an advantage for Fed drawing Novak as the draws are always made to benefit him.

[bogbrush]

lags, you're wasting your time.

I've explained why here;

https://www.606v2.com/t33050p100-can-murray-become-a-great-without-a-slam

At 9.01 today.

[User 774433]

Yeah I guess so but in this instance it's Nadal who's benefitting over Djokovic as Fed is the tougher opponent than Murray.

Well it only happened once at FO 2011, apart from that it didn't help him at all. And remember it could only affect him indirectly- it's not that he has a preference between Murray and Federer (in-fact his record in slams against Andy is worse); but as you said if Djokovic can go out that would be good for him- but this only happened once in FO 2011, and on B05 clay he can beat Djokovic too.

For Federer you feel he combinations have been perfect. Earlier on he used to struggle against Murray- I remember at one point he was 2-6 down in the H2H against Murray. Not that he really feared Andy in slams, but still Murray was seen as a far bigger threat than Djokovic, in-fact Djokovic used to be Fed's pet puppy in slams (apart from 2008 AO where he had mono) until late 2010 when Djokovic started his rise. So drawing Djoko rather than Murray was great for him. Then it was between Nadal and Djokovic, and in slams it is fair to say he struggles against Nadal more, well in the matches so far anyway. So it was good for him to get Djokovic rather than Nadal really.

Anyway not it all changes. Now the permutation is either Murray or Nadal in slams

Well it depends on who you think is the better player, I think Murray was better than Djokovic so whoever drew Murray had the tougher draw. I still think on paper Murray has been better than Djokovic all along too so going by that Nadal had it harder always drawing Murray. Thing is though socal is going on about how tough it is for Novak always drawing Fed or them 2 always being put together. So on the one hand it's a disadvantage for Novak to draw Fed but then somehow an advantage for Fed drawing Novak as the draws are always made to benefit him.

Well are we talking about the 2011 draws here? (where all 4 were Fed-Djoko).
Yes for Federer Djokovic was the easier draw because he prefers Djoko to Nadal.
And yes for Djokovic Fed is the harder draw, as Djokovic would prefer Murray to Federer.

[User 774433]

socal - I'll give this one last shot in the fervent hope that you will introduce at least a little balance to what I can only call UNbalanced, extremist views.

Think about what you're saying here ......

"Delpo has no prayer against the greatest grass court player of all time on this surface"

NO PRAYER. Repeat, NO PRAYER.

Really ...??

This is akin to saying that the outcome of the match is an absolute certainty.

If you truly believe this, then I suggest you bet your mortgage (if you have one) and all your wordly goods, and reap the easy rewards when Federer takes the match - which clearly you regard as 100% guaranteed. Delpo has NO PRAYER remember, so you've simply nothing to fear as regards the bet ; it's a sure-fire winner.

But, just before you place your bet, please allow me to point out a couple of things you might want to take into account.

1. This is sport we're talking about and there are no certainties in sport (in fact many say there are no certainties in life generally apart from death and taxes ).

2. If you need proof of point 1. you only have to take a quick look at history. And not too distant history either ......

Pete Sampras, June 2002 : already an amazing seven-times Wimbledon champion, Pete faced Georges Bastl at SW19 in R64.

Bastl was ranked 145 (even his highest-ever rank was only 71) and he never won a senior tournament of any description throughout his career.

He was the sort of guy who you MIGHT say did not have "a prayer" against Sampras - who was then the exact same age as Federer is now, and just a couple of months from another USO trophy. His last Slam victory of course.

Sampras had the luxury of five sets in that encounter rather than the lottery of 3. BUT it was Bastl who came out the winner.

Now let's fast forward to the present, and specifically tomorrow's semi.

Juan Martin del Potro is a former Slam champion ; highest ranking 4. He has the knowledge that he HAS actually beaten Federer twice (but has lost 12 admittedly). This is no journeyman player there to make up the numbers in "cupcake draws". Not like a .... let me think .... oh, a Georges Bastl perhaps.

socal, I challenge you to repeat what you have just said, viz :

"Delpo has no prayer"

If you actually do repeat it, whether in some fruitless effort to support your earlier 'indisputable' claims, or just because you are determined not to see sense and feel you will lose face, well then I really do give up on you.

No. Don't be silly.

Socal is spot on; on grass Del Potro has no chance against Federer on grass. Unless Federer is fully fit that is, and the world doesn't end.

[break_in_the_fifth]

No he's not just talking about 2011 draws as the sample would be too small for the 16/17 thing he's talking about, I think he's counting grandslams going a few years back, including the years where Fed was previously in the top 2.

[User 774433]

No he's not just talking about 2011 draws as the sample would be too small for the 16/17 thing he's talking about, I think he's counting grandslams going a few years back, including the years where Fed was previously in the top 2.

Well beforehand as we said Federer preferred to face Djokovic rather than Murray, in-fact he had a negative H2H against Murray.
I mean I'm not suggesting Murray would go in as favourite into Slam matches against Fed, of course not, but I think Fed definitely was much more comfortable in facing Djokovic.
However what Socal misses is that Djokovic also struggled to keep up against Nadal BO5 in his early days, his fitness was not good enough.

[invisiblecoolers]

Lags, I blame the brits.

Clear my confusion JHM ,Which part of Brits? Scots or English?

[socal1976]

Fine lags he does have a chance a very, very slim chance. A little bit better than Roger being struck by lightening between now and tomorrow. Of course it is sports and on any given day upsets happen. Sometimes North Korea upsets Italy in football at the world cup. This seems to be the existential theory of argueing against my points. I make a point indicating how odd the Djokovic Federer draws are and you say well longshots happen. Of course that isn't an argument that is repeating a trueism or a cliche at worst. Now you are relying on the same logical crutch in this scenario.

Do you believe that Del Po or even Ferrer is a difficult draw for Federer on Grass? I don't it is about as convenient a pair of opponents as fed could have hoped for at this late of an event and on this surface.

But to show you my flexibility and legendary even handedness I will concede. As an attorney it is improper logic to use non-conditional terms like always, never, absolutely, or without question. In fact, on multiple choice exams we were taught when you had no clue which answer is correct look for the answers that use the most restrictive language like always and never and elimnate them as correct choices. That is actually a great trick for any multiple choice test.

So let me edit my response. Del Po has A MINISCULE CHANCE AGAINST FEDERER and is about as easy a draw as fed could have hope for on grass in a major tournament semifinal. But in my defense I thought that anyone would not take my statement that he HAD NO chance as literal. I thought it was just assumed that when I said he has no chance I meant he has a very, very tiny chance. I didn't think I needed to spell it out so semantically.

[break_in_the_fifth]

Look, the only part where Novak's draw is appreciably tougher than Fed's is the semis. A former slam champion with his best years ahead of him is not the easiest opponent Fed could have hoped for either.

[socal1976]

socal - I'll give this one last shot in the fervent hope that you will introduce at least a little balance to what I can only call UNbalanced, extremist views.

Think about what you're saying here ......

"Delpo has no prayer against the greatest grass court player of all time on this surface"

NO PRAYER. Repeat, NO PRAYER.

Really ...??

This is akin to saying that the outcome of the match is an absolute certainty.

If you truly believe this, then I suggest you bet your mortgage (if you have one) and all your wordly goods, and reap the easy rewards when Federer takes the match - which clearly you regard as 100% guaranteed. Delpo has NO PRAYER remember, so you've simply nothing to fear as regards the bet ; it's a sure-fire winner.

But, just before you place your bet, please allow me to point out a couple of things you might want to take into account.

1. This is sport we're talking about and there are no certainties in sport (in fact many say there are no certainties in life generally apart from death and taxes ).

2. If you need proof of point 1. you only have to take a quick look at history. And not too distant history either ......

Pete Sampras, June 2002 : already an amazing seven-times Wimbledon champion, Pete faced Georges Bastl at SW19 in R64.

Bastl was ranked 145 (even his highest-ever rank was only 71) and he never won a senior tournament of any description throughout his career.

He was the sort of guy who you MIGHT say did not have "a prayer" against Sampras - who was then the exact same age as Federer is now, and just a couple of months from another USO trophy. His last Slam victory of course.

Sampras had the luxury of five sets in that encounter rather than the lottery of 3. BUT it was Bastl who came out the winner.

Now let's fast forward to the present, and specifically tomorrow's semi.

Juan Martin del Potro is a former Slam champion ; highest ranking 4. He has the knowledge that he HAS actually beaten Federer twice (but has lost 12 admittedly). This is no journeyman player there to make up the numbers in "cupcake draws". Not like a .... let me think .... oh, a Georges Bastl perhaps.

socal, I challenge you to repeat what you have just said, viz :

"Delpo has no prayer"

If you actually do repeat it, whether in some fruitless effort to support your earlier 'indisputable' claims, or just because you are determined not to see sense and feel you will lose face, well then I really do give up on you.

No. Don't be silly.

Socal is spot on; on grass Del Potro has no chance against Federer on grass. Unless Federer is fully fit that is, and the world doesn't end.

Thank you IMBL, you see Lags this a person who didn't take my no chance/miniscule chance distinction so literally. But I stand corrected del po does have a chance an extremely tiny one.

IMBL you mention later on that Novak would want to avoid Nadal before 2011 at the semi stage. I think Novak at that time fancied his chances against Nadal on a hardcourt and on grass more than he fancied his chances on those quicker surfaces against fed. Now remember we are talking pre-2011. On clay I think everyone and his grandma wants to avoid Nadal first and foremost, Novak included. But at the slams that Novak had a chance to win prior to 2011, ie AO and USO he would much rather have played Nadal than Fed especially if you take into consideration that this streak started in 07 and 08. Remember that before Novak's 09 and 10 serving debacle he enjoyed a winning record early on in his career against Nadal on hardcourt, even prior to 2011.

Also don't forget the other part of the equation up until 2011 fed would have preferred playing Djoko as opposed to murray. Murray had a h2h lead over fed at that time and had not lost 3 finals to the man, the vast majority of commentators and fans, myself included felt that prior to the 2010 AO final that Murray was a tougher matchup for fed than Djoko.

[JuliusHMarx]

Lags, I blame the brits.

Clear my confusion JHM ,Which part of Brits? Scots or English?

The Welsh

[invisiblecoolers]

Do you believe that Del Po or even Ferrer is a difficult draw for Federer on Grass? I don't it is about as convenient a pair of opponents as fed could have hoped for at this late of an event and on this surface.

No body is a difficult draw for Fed at his prime in grass, can u see any Fed fans moaning for any draw given to him? champs don't moan they go and do the job.

[invisiblecoolers]

Lags, I blame the brits.

Clear my confusion JHM ,Which part of Brits? Scots or English?

The Welsh

I was about to say don't put the blame on Welsh, Coz I come from there [Cardiff]

[lags72]

lags, you're wasting your time.

I've explained why here;

https://www.606v2.com/t33050p100-can-murray-become-a-great-without-a-slam

At 9.01 today.

bogbrush - have just checked out the link and I see what you mean.

I suspect you're right and that I AM wasting my time, if only because socal presumably believes that all his claims:

a) are cast-iron fact, regardless of how much evidence there might be to the contrary, and
b) if repeated often enough, the claims will be swallowed as gospel by the rest of us


socal - have just seen your latest post. No, it's way more than miniscule, that's plain daft, and you seem intent on doing JMDP one hell of a disservice. You think because he hasn't had much success on grass to date that he'll never, ever have any ? If he plays really well tomorrow and Federer is off colour then that's all it takes in 3 sets, could even be two TB's, who can say. It doesn't need hell to freeze over for it to happen.

Delpo knows what it takes to beat Federer even in the white heat of a Slam Final so don't try to tell me that he hasn't got a decent chance even on grass - especially when the various surfaces are becoming ever more homogenised and players are more adept at adjusting their game than ever before. Gone are the days when clay courter Spaniards and South Americans wouldn't even bother to show up at Wimbledon.

I was just thinking that in your trusty book, the 87th-ranked Tommy Haas (some way below Delpo's competitive level of course and a lot older) surely "had no prayer" when he met Federer at the Halle Bo3 final on grass just a few weeks back ...... The result tells a very different story. Just how many examples do you need ? (don't answer ... I give up)

[User 774433]

Thank you IMBL, you see Lags this a person who didn't take my no chance/miniscule chance distinction so literally. But I stand corrected del po does have a chance an extremely tiny one.

Yes, bien sur.
I also said 'no chance' it's an idiom- of course I didn't mean literally no chance. He always has a chance.

IMBL you mention later on that Novak would want to avoid Nadal before 2011 at the semi stage. I think Novak at that time fancied his chances against Nadal on a hardcourt and on grass more than he fancied his chances on those quicker surfaces against fed. Now remember we are talking pre-2011. On clay I think everyone and his grandma wants to avoid Nadal first and foremost, Novak included. But at the slams that Novak had a chance to win prior to 2011, ie AO and USO he would much rather have played Nadal than Fed especially if you take into consideration that this streak started in 07 and 08. Remember that before Novak's 09 and 10 serving debacle he enjoyed a winning record early on in his career against Nadal on hardcourt, even prior to 2011.

Yes, you're probably right. He definitely hated drawing Federer in slams, more than anyone.
I do remember Djokovic always having a good H2H vs Nadal on HC (but not clay or grass!) but in BO5 ifnthose days I don't think Djokovic had the fitness to keep up. Quite a few retirements IIRC against Nadal. His first win against Nadal in a slam was actually Wimbledon 2011 surprisingly enough.

Also don't forget the other part of the equation up until 2011 fed would have preferred playing Djoko as opposed to murray. Murray had a h2h lead over fed at that time and had not lost 3 finals to the man, the vast majority of commentators and fans, myself included felt that prior to the 2010 AO final that Murray was a tougher matchup for fed than Djoko.

Spot on. Fed didn't like playing Murray when he (Andy) was young for some reason.

[User 774433]

lags, you're wasting your time.

I've explained why here;

https://www.606v2.com/t33050p100-can-murray-become-a-great-without-a-slam

At 9.01 today.

bogbrush - have just checked out the link and I see what you mean.

I suspect you're right and that I AM wasting my time, if only because socal presumably believes that all his claims:

a) are cast-iron fact, regardless of how much evidence there might be to the contrary, and
b) if repeated often enough, the claims will be swallowed as gospel by the rest of us


socal - have just seen your latest post. No, it's way more than miniscule, that's plain daft, and you seem intent on doing JMDP one hell of a disservice. You think because he hasn't had much success on grass to date that he'll never, ever have any ? If he plays really well tomorrow and Federer is off colour then that's all it takes in 3 sets, could even be two TB's, who can say. It doesn't need hell to freeze over for it to happen.

Delpo knows what it takes to beat Federer even in the white heat of a Slam Final so don't try to tell me that he hasn't got a decent chance even on grass - especially when the various surfaces are becoming ever more homogenised and players are more adept at adjusting their game than ever before. Gone are the days when clay courter Spaniards and South Americans wouldn't even bother to show up at Wimbledon.

I was just thinking that in your trusty book, the 87th-ranked Tommy Haas (some way below Delpo's competitive level of course and a lot older) surely "had no prayer" when he met Federer at the Halle Bo3 final on grass just a few weeks back ...... The result tells a very different story. Just how many examples do you need ? (don't answer ... I give up)

BB was saying Socal has an agenda. Doesn't make what he is saying wrong. Just because someone has an agenda doesn't mean what they say should be dismissed. It should be examined carefully, yes, but not dismissed. In that case in Courts lawyers would just always be ignored.

Socal talked about the SF permutations meaning Djokovic usually gets the harder draw, while Federer has got the easier one. I also agreed with him on this, using the past 'H2H stats.' If you want take a look at the 'Top 4 Record' thread I did last month: eg Federer would prefer Djokovic in a SF compared to Nadal; and Djokovic would prefer Murray to Federer etc.
I agreed with Socal on the difficulty thing so you what you are saying to him could also be addressed to me. I have no agenda to prove Djokovic is better, I don't really l like Djokovic. The only difference between me and Socal is that I think it's just luck and as Invisible Coolers said great champions should get on with it irrelevant of continued bad/good luck while Socal is convinced that there is some sort of global conspiracy against Djokovic. I don't buy that.

Lastly I think Del Potro has less than 1% chance against Federer tomorrow. It's on grass. Del P couldn't even get a set off Ferrer in this year's Wimbledon, the guy can't move on this surface. It's practically impossible for him to beat Roger, if Fed is 100% fit.
And don't compare the Halle final to this. Federer gifted his old friend Tommy a win there, now he has a chance of getting a singles Olympic medal for the first time in his career. Fed was being generous to Haas.

[invisiblecoolers]

I was just thinking that in your trusty book, the 87th-ranked Tommy Haas (some way below Delpo's competitive level of course and a lot older) surely "had no prayer" when he met Federer at the Halle Bo3 final on grass just a few weeks back ...... The result tells a very different story. Just how many examples do you need ? (don't answer ... I give up)

Lags I am tired of explaining Socal as well, he/she just don't wanna listen and got excuse ready if Djoko happen to lose tomorrow.

[lags72]

IMBL - I'm perplexed.

You're seemingly joining the socal extremist sect with the "no chance" claim - even one inside the top ten and even when you've seen lots of examples of much lesser players coming out and giving their best to grab a win. Happily players don't think that way (ie the "no chance" way) otherwise they would stay in their hotel room and not bother showing up.

I can't tell you just how surprised - and disappointed - I am in you IMBL.

Struggling to reconcile your strange pithy comments here with your truly excellent 'Weekly Series' blog.

Anyway there you go.

For me .... well I feel like another break from v2 might be an idea.

Enjoy the semis and whatever comes after

[JuliusHMarx]

Also don't forget the other part of the equation up until 2011 fed would have preferred playing Djoko as opposed to murray. Murray had a h2h lead over fed at that time and had not lost 3 finals to the man, the vast majority of commentators and fans, myself included felt that prior to the 2010 AO final that Murray was a tougher matchup for fed than Djoko.

I don't believe that at all. I don't think Fed ever felt worried about playing Murray at slams. I was always worried when Murray was drawn in Fed's half because I didn't see how he could get past Fed in a Bo5.
I think saying the "the vast majority of commentators and fans" felt Murray was a tougher match-up is incorrect - I doubt that is the case and I don't recall in being the case - not in the UK anyway.
Remember how it was recently discussed that Djoko would concentrate on Slams now, rather than Masters - Fed was pretty much doing the same thing as Murray built up the H2H lead. But in slams, Djoko, having beaten Fed in a slam], and also having won a slam, was always IMO a tougher draw than Murray for Fed in a slam.

[User 774433]

IMBL - I'm perplexed.

You're seemingly joining the socal extremist sect with the "no chance" claim - even one inside the top ten and even when you've seen lots of examples of much lesser players coming out and giving their best to grab a win. Happily players don't think that way (ie the "no chance" way) otherwise they would stay in their hotel room and not bother showing up.

I can't tell you just how surprised - and disappointed - I am in you IMBL.

Struggling to reconcile your strange pithy comments here with your truly excellent 'Weekly Series' blog.

Anyway there you go.

For me .... well I feel like another break from v2 might be an idea.

Enjoy the semis and whatever comes after

Lags, check your inbox

I honestly believe Del Potro doesn't move well enough on grass to trouble Federer. I am tired, maybe my judgement is skewed.
Anyway you have a PM from me
IMBL

[break_in_the_fifth]

Isner moves worse than Del Potro and he had a chance today.

[User 774433]

Isner moves worse than Del Potro and he had a chance today.

Yes you're probably right.
I'm tired right now, that's probably why my judgement is skewed.
I just think Federer is on great form, world number 1, and has just won Wimbledon (the same surface as Olympics). I don't see JDMP causing trouble on his worst surface.
My 'no chance' thing was probably an exaggeration, apologies for that. But let's put it this way: I would bet significant money on Fed winning

[socal1976]

Do you believe that Del Po or even Ferrer is a difficult draw for Federer on Grass? I don't it is about as convenient a pair of opponents as fed could have hoped for at this late of an event and on this surface.

No body is a difficult draw for Fed at his prime in grass, can u see any Fed fans moaning for any draw given to him? champs don't moan they go and do the job.

Fed fans aren't champions fed is first off. Secondly, of course fed has the edge over every one on grass the question again is of degrees I don't understand why everyone seems to have swallowed bogbrush binary thinking juice and can only see the world in white and black. Of all the players in the top 8 that fed could have played in the semi Del Po and Ferrer would have been the two he would have picked to play in the semi. Choice A and Choice B and that is precisely the cream filled cupcake he was served.

[socal1976]

Isner moves worse than Del Potro and he had a chance today.

Isner is a different player than Del Po. Isner's serve is more overwhelming in my opinion and is a bigger part of his game. And I disagree I don't think Isner had a chance. He had a chance at winning the second set actually winning the match is a different thing altogether.

[break_in_the_fifth]

Who else could Fed have played then?

[socal1976]

lags, you're wasting your time.

I've explained why here;

https://www.606v2.com/t33050p100-can-murray-become-a-great-without-a-slam

At 9.01 today.

bogbrush - have just checked out the link and I see what you mean.

I suspect you're right and that I AM wasting my time, if only because socal presumably believes that all his claims:

a) are cast-iron fact, regardless of how much evidence there might be to the contrary, and
b) if repeated often enough, the claims will be swallowed as gospel by the rest of us


socal - have just seen your latest post. No, it's way more than miniscule, that's plain daft, and you seem intent on doing JMDP one hell of a disservice. You think because he hasn't had much success on grass to date that he'll never, ever have any ? If he plays really well tomorrow and Federer is off colour then that's all it takes in 3 sets, could even be two TB's, who can say. It doesn't need hell to freeze over for it to happen.

Delpo knows what it takes to beat Federer even in the white heat of a Slam Final so don't try to tell me that he hasn't got a decent chance even on grass - especially when the various surfaces are becoming ever more homogenised and players are more adept at adjusting their game than ever before. Gone are the days when clay courter Spaniards and South Americans wouldn't even bother to show up at Wimbledon.

I was just thinking that in your trusty book, the 87th-ranked Tommy Haas (some way below Delpo's competitive level of course and a lot older) surely "had no prayer" when he met Federer at the Halle Bo3 final on grass just a few weeks back ...... The result tells a very different story. Just how many examples do you need ? (don't answer ... I give up)

In the immortal words of Bjorn Bjorg in his lone US announcing gig at the 82 wimbeldon final where his nemesis Mac was playing some relative unknown in the final. When asked of Mac's opponent's chance in the match Bjorg responded famously:"He has no shance fur sure". I don't know how much more clearly I can put it. I mean Bjorg also understands that upsets happen.

Oh now I have heard it all the infamous he has a shot because all the surfaces are homogonized line. If they are so homogenized why does Fed have 7 wimbeldons and one rather fortunate French open title? If they are all so similar and the chances of all the players are so equal in every tournament. Yes the conditions are more similar but there is still enough variation to make this a nightmare matchup on this surface for Del Po in my mind. Split hairs however you like on how small or big his chances are, lets just say they aren't very good.

[socal1976]

Who else could Fed have played then?

He could have drawn Tsonga, Berdych, or Murray all of whom would have been more difficult players for Fed in the top 8 that could have been drawn against him at the outset. In fact of the entire top 8 if fed had to pick a choice A and B for players he would want in a semi draw at the outset these would be the two that he would want on this particular surface. On clay or hardcourt it could be a different matter.

[User 774433]

Who else could Fed have played then?

He could have drawn Tsonga, Berdych, or Murray all of whom would have been more difficult players for Fed in the top 8 that could have been drawn against him at the outset. In fact of the entire top 8 if fed had to pick a choice A and B for players he would want in a semi draw at the outset these would be the two that he would want on this particular surface. On clay or hardcourt it could be a different matter.

No.
It would have been better for him to draw Berdych in his QF/SF as Berdych lost R1.

[User 774433]

BTW Socal it just occurred to me that Del Potro was 2 sets to love up against Fed in FO.

OK this is grass which Fed is better on, and Del P doesn't move as well on, but surely if he plays a blinder he has a chance, no?

Nevertheless I think this is in Federer's hands. He plays well, and moves Del Potro around with slices etc. then he can expose the movement of the Argentinian. In this form I think Fed in BO3 grass can beat anyone in the world, he is ranked number 1 for a reason.

[invisiblecoolers]

I give up, Socal has more time and patience to utter some more gibberish here with respect to draws.

For the sake of truth [i.e Socal] lets award Djoko the Olympic Gold medal, Silver medal and Bronze medal on the behalf of 606v2.

Congrats Djoko and Socal for winning the medal even before contesting the semi-finals.

[bogbrush]

This is so funny; you all think you're talking about tennis while socal is talking about aggrandising Djokovic.

It's like you're talking across each other, and why the rest of you won't get anywhere, even those who periodically agree with socal; remember that a stopped clock is right twice a day.

[socal1976]

IMBL - I'm perplexed.

You're seemingly joining the socal extremist sect with the "no chance" claim - even one inside the top ten and even when you've seen lots of examples of much lesser players coming out and giving their best to grab a win. Happily players don't think that way (ie the "no chance" way) otherwise they would stay in their hotel room and not bother showing up.

I can't tell you just how surprised - and disappointed - I am in you IMBL.

Struggling to reconcile your strange pithy comments here with your truly excellent 'Weekly Series' blog.

Anyway there you go.

For me .... well I feel like another break from v2 might be an idea.

Enjoy the semis and whatever comes after

Whatever Lags what is this childish teenage mentality that if someone agrees with me somehow you are disappointed in them. Am I that inferior to you thinking and unworthy of people finding one of my points logical enough to agree with. I don't get this teenage girl lunchroom routine by you Lags. You can label me extremist if you like but this post is frankly silly. Are you uspet with people and dissappointed because IMBL agreed with me on some point about tennis. Funny I am in the extremist camp, ok you got me, I do look good in a chairman mao leisure suite maybe I will run with it. Look out folks the tennis extremist is here!!!!muah, muah muah!!!!!!

[JuliusHMarx]

In the immortal words of Bjorn Bjorg in his lone US announcing gig at the 82 wimbeldon final where his nemesis Mac was playing some relative unknown in the final.

1983 final (vs Lewis). In 82 Mac lost to Connors.

[socal1976]

BTW Socal it just occurred to me that Del Potro was 2 sets to love up against Fed in FO.

OK this is grass which Fed is better on, and Del P doesn't move as well on, but surely if he plays a blinder he has a chance, no?

Nevertheless I think this is in Federer's hands. He plays well, and moves Del Potro around with slices etc. then he can expose the movement of the Argentinian. In this form I think Fed in BO3 grass can beat anyone in the world, he is ranked number 1 for a reason.

IMBL, here is my analysis of Del Po's problem on grass is that fed can get at his second serve well enough to make it count. Del Po is a good server but not quite in my mind as good especially on his second serve. Additionally, the low ball on grass is torture for the big man. Del Po is very uncomfortable up in the court, fed will make him go there with drops and slices and little angled shots. Also when Fed does force del Po to go to the slice backhand by chipping there repeatedly Del Po's slice is infinitely more attackable and loopey than fed's knifing slice. So as long as fed chips DeL PO backhand enough to get the tall guy to take his hand off his backhand nine out of 10 times the slice Del Po produces will be very attackable for a federer run around forehand.

[JuliusHMarx]

Oh now I have heard it all the infamous he has a shot because all the surfaces are homogonized line. If they are so homogenized why does Fed have 7 wimbeldons and one rather fortunate French open title? If they are all so similar and the chances of all the players are so equal in every tournament. Yes the conditions are more similar but there is still enough variation to make this a nightmare matchup on this surface for Del Po in my mind. Split hairs however you like on how small or big his chances are, lets just say they aren't very good.

Lags didn't say "all the surfaces are homogenised" he said "becoming ever more homogenised". Then you wrote "Yes the conditions are more similar", which is pretty much what Lags said. You're twisting Lags words.

[socal1976]

I give up, Socal has more time and patience to utter some more gibberish here with respect to draws.

For the sake of truth [i.e Socal] lets award Djoko the Olympic Gold medal, Silver medal and Bronze medal on the behalf of 606v2.

Congrats Djoko and Socal for winning the medal even before contesting the semi-finals.

No IC you are mistaken that is what they practically did with the silver medal for fed with this saucey cupcake served up for him. Might as well have booked a hotel and flight only for the final practically.

[CaledonianCraig]

First up well done Andy for his win today. A clinical display. Also where is the consistency amongst some posters? I mean come on Almagro was repeatedly clutching at his shoulder yet no hysterical posts labelling him 'a drama queen' - I wonder why?

[bogbrush]

Seriously Craig, who really talks about El Mugro?

[socal1976]

Who else could Fed have played then?

He could have drawn Tsonga, Berdych, or Murray all of whom would have been more difficult players for Fed in the top 8 that could have been drawn against him at the outset. In fact of the entire top 8 if fed had to pick a choice A and B for players he would want in a semi draw at the outset these would be the two that he would want on this particular surface. On clay or hardcourt it could be a different matter.

No.
It would have been better for him to draw Berdych in his QF/SF as Berdych lost R1.

Let me be clear I am talking about a draw at the outset. I don't know or care what happens in terms of players getting upset later on. When discussing the issue of draw discrimination it really is only relavent to the analysis to look at the difficulty of the draw at the outset. At the outset berdych having one win against fed on grass would have been more dangerous than ferrer or del Po. Of course Berdy lost early like he is prone to do from time to time. But i am analyzing the draw from the outset of course a Rosol upset can happen and the toughest draw can open up but if the question is potential bias on the part of draw comittees then only the draw at the outset is relevant.

[polished_man]

IMBL - I'm perplexed.

You're seemingly joining the socal extremist sect with the "no chance" claim - even one inside the top ten and even when you've seen lots of examples of much lesser players coming out and giving their best to grab a win. Happily players don't think that way (ie the "no chance" way) otherwise they would stay in their hotel room and not bother showing up.

I can't tell you just how surprised - and disappointed - I am in you IMBL.

Struggling to reconcile your strange pithy comments here with your truly excellent 'Weekly Series' blog.

Anyway there you go.

For me .... well I feel like another break from v2 might be an idea.

Enjoy the semis and whatever comes after

Bye

[CaledonianCraig]

Seriously Craig, who really talks about El Mugro?

Eh? What has that got to do with the price of eggs? I thought the standard here was that a clutch of any part of the body on court and you are 'a drama queen'. I wish hawkeye would define why this isn't the case?

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