Title Decider 2: Wales v Ireland 14 March

WALES v IRELAND
Saturday 14 March 2015
KO: 14:30
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff

Referee: Wayne Barnes (RFU)
AR1: Chris Pollock (NZR)
AR2: Federico Anselmi (UAR)
TMO: Graham Hughes (RFU)

*****

The bookies are keeping with their earlier predictions of no GS winner above Ireland's chances. And same for the Triple Crown.  Though they have Ireland as favourites in Cardiff but not by much.

Given the distinct love-in that we've had over the last fortnight between Irish and English fans, are Wales now the new 'old enemy'?

Keep it clean folks.

Well a bit anyway.

Ireland team:
15. Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster) 14. Tommy Bowe (Belfast Harlequins/Ulster) 13. Jared Payne (Ulster) 12. Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Connacht) 11. Simon Zebo (Cork Constitution/Munster) 10. Jonathan Sexton (Racing Metro 92) 9. Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster)
1. Jack McGrath (St. Mary's College/Leinster) 2. Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster) 3. Mike Ross (Clontarf/Leinster) 4. Devin Toner (Lansdowne/Leinster) 5. Paul O'Connell (Young Munster/Munster) (capt) 6. Peter O'Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster) 7. Sean O'Brien (UCD/Leinster) 8. Jamie Heaslip (Dublin University/Leinster)

Replacements: 16. Sean Cronin (St. Mary's College/Leinster) 17. Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster) 18. Martin Moore (Lansdowne/Leinster) 19. Iain Henderson (Ballynahinch/Ulster) 20. Jordi Murphy (Lansdowne/Leinster) 21. Eoin Reddan (Lansdowne/Leinster) 22. Ian Madigan (Blackrock College/Leinster) 23. Felix Jones (Shannon/Munster)

Wales Team: Webb, Roberts, Biggar, North, Williams, Halfpenny, Davies, Jones, Falateau, Warburton, Jenkins, Baldwin, Lee.
Replacements: R Hibbard R Evans A Jarvis , J Ball J Tipuric , M Phillips , R Priestland , S Williams

You gotta admit its a good deal for Ireland if we accept it.

Lose to Wales. Win the World Cup (something else he claimed might be a doer for Ireland)

No brainer. Send out the fourth string side against Wales in two weeks.

The (excuse the spelling on this) Me Feiner said on scrum V that you irish don't want the favourites tag anyway, so I'm sure you'll be happy enough with Guscott's prediction

Risca Rev wrote:The (excuse the spelling on this) Me Feiner said on scrum V that you irish don't want the favourites tag anyway, so I'm sure you'll be happy enough with Guscott's prediction

As will the Welsh. Imagine - an Englishman making them favourites.

On the other hand, they may get suspicious.....

What's the news on Sexton's hamstring?

Ire/Wales looks every bit as tasty as Eng/Ire was. Going right back into the 5 Nations Wales/Ireland has always been my favourite neutral game. It wasn't often a championship decider, but by 'eck you two would go at eachother... It's different now - I've never seen an Irish side play like this one. We know what Wales offer. It's going to be a different but still a fascinating contest.

Perhaps simply because Ireland played against us much better than Wales did I have them as favourites. But they'll need to be at the same standard next week as last, and that's not an easy thing.

Who is Me Feiner?

I don't mind the favourites tag.  It's meaningless.  Take it or leave it.  It's a media buzz word that has no bearing on a physical game played out over 80 minutes by 30 men plus subs.

But that Ireland steal 3rd back again from 3rd ranked side in the world and that it hasn't been beaten in 9 games now, including Australia and South Africa..................... I think that means we come to Cardiff far from being underdogs.

It means absolutely nothing either!  Don't get me wrong.  Wales could very well put us to the sword.  But if they did, it would be the upset of the Championship based on current combined form - it wouldn't be because they were always going to do so by virtue of the amount of 'LIONS' they had on their side.

Guscott needs to talk up Wales anyway.  No harm in it.  But everyone knows most English people have to be for Wales in that fight because of the benefits that might accrue to them.

Pot Hale wrote:"If we talk in terms of players of the highest quality - those who can win a series as part of the British and Irish Lions - then Wales have more players in that echelon than Ireland.
If all those players play as well as they can, Wales should really have the edge, especially at the Millennium Stadium."

Interesting.

My combined team would be:
1 Healy
2 Best
3 Lee
4 AWJ
5 POC
6 POM
7 SOB
8 Heaslip
9 Murray
10 Sexton
11 North
12 Henshaw
13 Davies
14 Bowe
15 Halfpenny

You could possibly sneak in Faletau or Jamie Roberts but otherwise I make that 10-5 to Ireland. Is it a genuine perception amongst the rugby community that Wales have stronger individuals? I'm curious.

SecretFly wrote:


But that Ireland steal 3rd back again from 3rd ranked side in the world and that it hasn't been beaten in 9 games now, including Australia and South Africa..................... I think that means we come to Cardiff far from being underdogs.

Which result are you not counting as a win? The one against Georgia?

Cowshot wrote:What's the news on Sexton's hamstring?

They think it's minor and he should be fine. The concern is he's gone back to Racing feckin' Metro... he wouldn't be playing or training if he wasn't right, but will his club take the same view?

I'm interested that none of the Irish fans seem to be talking much about Sexton's injury. I guess it's a bit early to think about Wales the day after you beat England, but... is the assumption that the injury isn't that bad, or that even if Maddigan has to step in, you're not worried about much of a drop-off in team performance?

Well thats us fecked then if he is backing us.

As I have said on other threads I didn't think the slam would be won this year though I did initially tip us to beat England then Ireland beat us so for my prediction and little flutter to come in we now have to beat Ireland - can we? Yes I think we may sneak it and I don't think its beyond the realms of possibility to suggest that.

The players will know each other inside out and Ireland certainly won't fear coming to Cardiff but I think the sides are quite evenly matched and there will be some huge match ups, none more so than in the 2nd row where you have the heart beat of both teams in AWJ and POC going head to head not to mention Chaerteris and Toner who are both what 6ft 10.

I think Ireland clearly have the edge at 9 and 10 currently but Webb and Biggar are no slouches, I would say Wales have the edge at 12 and 13, certainly in terms of being a settled pairing and have the experience.

The back 3 is mouthwatering with Bowe, Kearney, Zebo, Halfpenny and Williams all fearless under the high ball.

I will always back Wales and will for this one but I doubt there will be anymore than 3-6 points in it.

theslosty wrote:

Pot Hale wrote:"If we talk in terms of players of the highest quality - those who can win a series as part of the British and Irish Lions - then Wales have more players in that echelon than Ireland.
If all those players play as well as they can, Wales should really have the edge, especially at the Millennium Stadium."

Interesting.

My combined team would be:
1 Healy
2 Best
3 Lee
4 AWJ
5 POC
6 POM
7 SOB
8 Heaslip
9 Murray
10 Sexton
11 North
12 Henshaw
13 Davies
14 Bowe
15 Halfpenny

You could possibly sneak in Faletau or Jamie Roberts but otherwise I make that 10-5 to Ireland. Is it a genuine perception amongst the rugby community that Wales have stronger individuals? I'm curious.

I think it's just that the Welsh players are almost all very well known to neutrals - since most of them have been around since at least the last RWC/Lions etc. A lot of the Irish players in the current team are pretty unfamiliar faces at international level. On form they may well be better, but I watch quite a lot of Pro12 and even I don't know who a lot of the newer Irish guys are.

Pot Hale wrote:

SecretFly wrote:


But that Ireland steal 3rd back again from 3rd ranked side in the world and that it hasn't been beaten in 9 games now, including Australia and South Africa..................... I think that means we come to Cardiff far from being underdogs.

Which result are you not counting as a win?   The one against Georgia?

Oh me and numbers, Pot. Don't fiddle me with numbers. My head aches when people do that. Is it 10?

theslosty wrote:

Pot Hale wrote:"If we talk in terms of players of the highest quality - those who can win a series as part of the British and Irish Lions - then Wales have more players in that echelon than Ireland.
If all those players play as well as they can, Wales should really have the edge, especially at the Millennium Stadium."

Interesting.

My combined team would be:
1 Healy
2 Best
3 Lee
4 AWJ
5 POC
6 POM
7 SOB
8 Heaslip
9 Murray
10 Sexton
11 North
12 Henshaw
13 Davies
14 Bowe
15 Halfpenny

You could possibly sneak in Faletau or Jamie Roberts but otherwise I make that 10-5 to Ireland. Is it a genuine perception amongst the rugby community that Wales have stronger individuals? I'm curious.

No, because he obviously would have the Lions captain in there, and the players who won it in the third match of the series. Thus Warburton, Roberts, Hibbard, Lydiate and Falateau would likely be included in his thinking, making it 9-10 Welsh players.

Gatland called Keith Wood it, didn't he (however you spell it)?

Ireland are favourites of course. 3rd best team in the World v 6th. Haven't lost v Wales for three years or something. I'll be betting Ireland anyway, even if Sexton doesn't make it. They and England have our number.

theslosty wrote:

Pot Hale wrote:"If we talk in terms of players of the highest quality - those who can win a series as part of the British and Irish Lions - then Wales have more players in that echelon than Ireland.
If all those players play as well as they can, Wales should really have the edge, especially at the Millennium Stadium."

Interesting.

My combined team would be:
1 Healy
2 Best
3 Lee
4 AWJ
5 POC
6 POM
7 SOB
8 Heaslip
9 Murray
10 Sexton
11 North
12 Henshaw
13 Davies
14 Bowe
15 Halfpenny

You could possibly sneak in Faletau or Jamie Roberts but otherwise I make that 10-5 to Ireland. Is it a genuine perception amongst the rugby community that Wales have stronger individuals? I'm curious.

If they were all on form then possibly but of late a lot of our big names have been mis-firing with North being the main mis-fire. As for the combined team I would put Faletau in at 8 every time and on Saturdays performance I would pick Roberts, that said on current from I would Zebo in over North.

SecretFly wrote:

Pot Hale wrote:

SecretFly wrote:


But that Ireland steal 3rd back again from 3rd ranked side in the world and that it hasn't been beaten in 9 games now, including Australia and South Africa..................... I think that means we come to Cardiff far from being underdogs.

Which result are you not counting as a win?   The one against Georgia?

Oh me and numbers, Pot.  Don't fiddle me with numbers.  My head aches when people do that.  Is it 10?

Ok then. Let's work the logic through. You said 9. I said which result (singular) are you omitting? Add the 1 to the 9 and what do you get?

MarcusHalberstram wrote:I'm interested that none of the Irish fans seem to be talking much about Sexton's injury. I guess it's a bit early to think about Wales the day after you beat England, but... is the assumption that the injury isn't that bad, or that even if Maddigan has to step in, you're not worried about much of a drop-off in team performance?

Even if Sexton played (and hope the hell he plays part of it) but even if he did - we'd still have to play damn good rugby to get the win. And it's damn good (maybe not pretty) rugby that Schmidt coaches. So the worry is its Wales. Just like the worry was that it was England. Just like the worry was that it was New Zealand. I don't think we do bavado really when people really analyse us. We're always conscious of the need to respect the potential of the opponent - truly. And I hope the Welsh do the same over the next two weeks. It's the Welsh that's the worry - not whether Sexton plays or not. If he doesn't then Joe will have to try to come up with alternative plans to come away with a win.

Pot Hale wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Pot Hale wrote:

SecretFly wrote:


But that Ireland steal 3rd back again from 3rd ranked side in the world and that it hasn't been beaten in 9 games now, including Australia and South Africa..................... I think that means we come to Cardiff far from being underdogs.

Which result are you not counting as a win?   The one against Georgia?

Oh me and numbers, Pot.  Don't fiddle me with numbers.  My head aches when people do that.  Is it 10?

Ok then.  Let's work the logic through.  You said 9.  I said which result (singular) are you omitting?  Add the 1 to the 9 and what do you get?

Emmm........................................... can I use a calculator?

Damn you with your "alternative plans"! That's not our way

Neither of us have really set the tournament alight with running attacking rugby, its going to be hard brutal rugby with defences being tested to the limit.

You have two pretty dead eye accurate kickers in Sexton and Halfpenny so giving away kickable penalties will very likely be punished with 3 points.

Ireland at the moment for me do everything very well with very few weaknesses other than maybe lacking experience in the centres.

Guscott has never had a clue so it is actually a good thing that he says Wales are favourites.

MarcusHalberstram wrote:Damn you with your "alternative plans"! That's not our way

Ok - here's a hint on the alternative plan.

X: Joe, Johnny can't play.
J: Tell Ian to start practising his sixpence kicking.
x: Which one?
J: The one who can kick.

Guscott Does seem to like to play on the Fact that Wales, have the Most British and Irish Lions in their team. This is the same Wales team that played against England, and errrr Lost.

I think Ireland and Wales are about equal in terms of experience players in their squad. I guess it depends on who of the injured from both teams will be fit enough to play.

If Johnny Sexton is ruled out then i would say advantage Wales.

Will we see the same mind games about the roof like we did with England?

I think this game will be a closer call than the England v Ireland game.

Pot Hale wrote:

MarcusHalberstram wrote:Damn you with your "alternative plans"! That's not our way

Ok - here's a hint on the alternative plan.

X: Joe, Johnny can't play.
J: Tell Ian to start practising his sixpence kicking.
x: Which one?
J: The one who can kick.

Of course the extension is:

X: Healy?

X: Paulie?

"Will we see the same mind games about the roof like we did with England?"

I doubt it, since we already know that unlike the English, the Irish aren't scared of loud cheers

The IRFU's medical bulletin had this to say:

O'Brien has a concussion, following the RTP protocol.
Payne has a concussion, following the No 113 bus last time he was seen, but he should be back in time.
Johnny has a minor hamstring injury - scan to follow.

In a sinister development, the remainder of the squad have been released back to their provinces for Pro 12 action this weekend. By sheer coincidence, three of the provinces have to travel to Wales to play Cardiff, Ospreys and Scarlets.

MarcusHalberstram wrote:"Will we see the same mind games about the roof like we did with England?"

I doubt it, since we already know that unlike the English, the Irish aren't scared of loud cheers

They'll be too busy keeping an eye on the ball when it goes into touch.......

Ah it's going to be a good two weeks of buildup.

Already looking forward to hearing some Gatspeak - and old coughed wounds about a certain Lions tour that nobody will ever mention again, promise.

God, the history we have between us. You could write a novel about all dee drawma of it all.

"Coach Warren Gatland says Wales' players dislike their Irish rivals more than any other team in the Six Nations."

Wales of course have 100% more British Lions than Ireland, so I'm wondering if Ireland should just give Wales the two points and rest up for the Scotland game? Scotland of course also have 100% more British Lions than Ireland, so Guscott probably has them as favourites for that as well. Isn't it great being the underdog?

SecretFly wrote:

Ah it's going to be a good two weeks of buildup.  

Already looking forward to hearing some Gatspeak - and old coughed wounds about a certain Lions tour that nobody will ever mention again, promise.

God, the history we have between us.  You could write a novel about all dee drawma of it all.  

History? What history?

Pot Hale wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Ah it's going to be a good two weeks of buildup.  

Already looking forward to hearing some Gatspeak - and old coughed wounds about a certain Lions tour that nobody will ever mention again, promise.

God, the history we have between us.  You could write a novel about all dee drawma of it all.  

History?  What history?

Good boy. That's the spirit. Let bygones be bygones.

To be honest, I don't mind if Ireland lose to Wales by a point.

(As long as Wales don't whinge about it afterwards that Ireland gave them the game, mind you)

It'll make for a cracking final day with Wales going like mad things against Italy trying to pile up the points. Then Ireland hoping they can beat Scotland after their shock loss to the Welsh. Meanwhile England will be lying in wait in the long grass ready to unleash the dogs of war against the French in the Grand Finale at Twickenham....

Ooh heavens, I'm getting goosebumps just thinking about it.

SecretFly wrote:

Pot Hale wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Ah it's going to be a good two weeks of buildup.  

Already looking forward to hearing some Gatspeak - and old coughed wounds about a certain Lions tour that nobody will ever mention again, promise.

God, the history we have between us.  You could write a novel about all dee drawma of it all.  

History?  What history?

Good boy. That's the spirit.  Let bygones be bygones.

Well as long as they own up that it was the wrong ball.

And that O'Driscoll should have played.

And Alain Rolland is actually Irish.

And leek soup is much better with potatoes in it.

Shaping up to be a dress rehearsal for the semi final of the RWC

Pot Hale wrote:To be honest, I don't mind if Ireland lose to Wales by a point.

(As long as Wales don't whinge about it afterwards that Ireland gave them the game, mind you)

It'll make for a cracking final day with Wales going like mad things against Italy trying to pile up the points.  Then Ireland hoping they can beat Scotland after their shock loss to the Welsh.   Meanwhile England will be lying in wait in the long grass ready to unleash the dogs of war against the French in the Grand Finale at Twickenham....

Ooh heavens, I'm getting goosebumps just thinking about it.

Thats fair enough. My preference is for the next two Ireland games to be won in as boring and undramatic a fashion as possible, but thats fair enough!

Just to give Wales a chance, I've snuck out an early draft of Joe Schmidt's game plan.



If one of you could explain it Gatland and Edwards in simple English it could be a huge help.

That section is just the game plan for Mike Ross by the way......

too close to call imo.

1/2p is the worlds best place kicker. and irish and welsh set piece both stepped up this week. fascinating for the neutral. for once i wont be hiding behind the sofa.

really is too close to call.

If there is parity at the set piece then we need to step up our work rate at the breakdown - our ball was slowed up against England, Scotland and France turned us over with ease and the Irish are the best team in the championship at the breakdown and have the ability and nuisance value to cause turnovers - add this to the best half back combination in NH rugby (maybe the world) and we will be up against it.

I also don't believe all the hype about the improved Welsh forward performance (other than the obvious 100% set piece) I believe a number of our forwards (Gethin Jenkins, Charteris) despite having good stats in terms of rucks hit are actually ineffective when committing to a ruck, a few times against France I saw Gethin and Luke flop over the jackler, failing to clear them out.

However I do expect us to raise the intensity in this match, the motivation should be with us as a team who have been well beaten in the last two fixtures against Ireland.

As for our backline being 'individually better' than the Irish, I think you could only make cases for Roberts, Davies, North and maybe halfpenny (although certainly not in an attacking sense), however what good is it having the upper hand in these areas if the opposition half backs are dominating their teams territory and possession?

FecklessRogue wrote:Just to give Wales a chance, I've snuck out an early draft of Joe Schmidt's game plan.



If one of you could explain it Gatland and Edwards in simple English it could be a huge help.

Clive Woodward would have that down in 2 Powerpoint slides.

Just in case people are not aware, this is a typical Jeremy Guscott work timeline:

10.00am - start to work on column.
10.05am - check hair in mirror.
10.07am - Google 'British Lions test squad v South Africa', write down Welsh players.
10.10am - consider researching provenance and ability of new Irish players.
10.11am - reject this as too much hard work.
10.12am - check hair in mirror.
10.13am - count number of current Welsh squad players in previous Lions test side.
10.15am - finish column.
10.20am - go for leg waxing and french manicure.

Massive game and with respect to Wales I'd put Ireland as 60-40 favourites, although this will be a tougher game than England.

The tactics Ireland have been using won't be as effective because Wales, North apart, are very strong in the air - especially Halfpenny- so the tactics will be intriguing.

I think the maul could be area where we could hurt Wales and the gain line battle between the two midfields will be key as well.

quinsforever wrote:too close to call imo.

1/2p is the worlds best place kicker. and irish and welsh set piece both stepped up this week. fascinating for the neutral. for once i wont be hiding behind the sofa.

In three games Ireland have only missed one kick at goal so our kicking is very good. 1/2p missed a fairly easy one against France.

GunsGerms wrote:

quinsforever wrote:too close to call imo.

1/2p is the worlds best place kicker. and irish and welsh set piece both stepped up this week. fascinating for the neutral. for once i wont be hiding behind the sofa.

In three games Ireland have only missed one kick at goal so our kicking is very good. 1/2p missed a fairly easy one against France.

What I'd be hoping for here is that Ireland will concede very few penalties in our own half, where 1/2 penny is deadly - our discipline is excellent under Schmidt, especially at the breakdown in our own half. It is a concern though when playing Wales - winning the territorial battle will be key.

I think we'll kick the ball low more to turn the Welsh midfield and in behind North who doesn't get down well. Halfpenny will eat up the Garryowen. Wales don't have the best lineout or like defending the maul so I think we may go for touch a bit more too.

I agree with you on that Rodders. Biggar is also quite good in the air.

Well, well, anyone would swear Gatland had once made a decision that upset an Irishman? I've also heard that the Irish team want a big green shamrock painted on the ball so there's no confusion when Wales take a quick line out.

History, what history.

Neither team wants to be tagged as favourites (look what happened to Wales when the media got hold of the opener - I was surprised England bothered to show up). None the less, the clear favourites are.......... IRELAND! unbeaten this year, 10 wins in a row, 2 recent SH wins, mighty England dispatched, ranked 3rd in the world. Not to mention the most"cerebral" coach in world rugby. Wales don't stand a chance and are underdogs by some margin - just the way we like it.

I for one, really hope that the game isn't ruined by someone (from either side) being sent off for an accidental tussle under one of the many likely high-balls!

Cerebrally we're favourites for sure.

But doggedly?  I think Gatland might have the edge there.

I don't know what he's planning for us.  But there'll be something.  The glistening of those hungry eyes of his will be intent on teaching Teach a lesson in humility.

BUT...........will Teach predict what Gatland has planned for him and plan a counter before he's even hit?

Oh it's a doodle pip of a show building.

PS...maybe we need to actually see what he has that WOULD beat us - then we'd have a blueprint of the version of rugby that kills us and the Professor of Chalk could go away and crunch the numbers to develop an antidote.

Gatlands plan?

Lace the Irish water bottles with rohypnol.


More seriously, on a neutral ground I would make Ireland favourites, in Dublin clear favourites. Game is at the MS though - and that can make a difference. So Wales very narrow favourites for me.