Title Decider 2: Wales v Ireland 14 March

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WALES v IRELAND
Saturday 14 March 2015
KO: 14:30
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff

Referee: Wayne Barnes (RFU)
AR1: Chris Pollock (NZR)
AR2: Federico Anselmi (UAR)
TMO: Graham Hughes (RFU)

*****

The bookies are keeping with their earlier predictions of no GS winner above Ireland's chances. And same for the Triple Crown.  Though they have Ireland as favourites in Cardiff but not by much.

Given the distinct love-in that we've had over the last fortnight between Irish and English fans, are Wales now the new 'old enemy'?

Keep it clean folks.

Well a bit anyway.

Ireland team:
15. Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster) 14. Tommy Bowe (Belfast Harlequins/Ulster) 13. Jared Payne (Ulster) 12. Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Connacht) 11. Simon Zebo (Cork Constitution/Munster) 10. Jonathan Sexton (Racing Metro 92) 9. Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster)
1. Jack McGrath (St. Mary's College/Leinster) 2. Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster) 3. Mike Ross (Clontarf/Leinster) 4. Devin Toner (Lansdowne/Leinster) 5. Paul O'Connell (Young Munster/Munster) (capt) 6. Peter O'Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster) 7. Sean O'Brien (UCD/Leinster) 8. Jamie Heaslip (Dublin University/Leinster)

Replacements: 16. Sean Cronin (St. Mary's College/Leinster) 17. Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster) 18. Martin Moore (Lansdowne/Leinster) 19. Iain Henderson (Ballynahinch/Ulster) 20. Jordi Murphy (Lansdowne/Leinster) 21. Eoin Reddan (Lansdowne/Leinster) 22. Ian Madigan (Blackrock College/Leinster) 23. Felix Jones (Shannon/Munster)

Wales Team: Webb, Roberts, Biggar, North, Williams, Halfpenny, Davies, Jones, Falateau, Warburton, Jenkins, Baldwin, Lee.
Replacements: R Hibbard R Evans A Jarvis , J Ball J Tipuric , M Phillips , R Priestland , S Williams

Too close to call.

Both teams are playing similar rugby, both teams have a lot of experience, neither have many injuries to consider. Both also seem to start really strong, race out of the blocks all aggression and Celtic anger and then fizzle out a little on the second half, that'll be the interesting time. Which ever team controls that 50-70min period will win it IMO.

One thing we do know is that it's going to be bloody physical!

yappysnap wrote:Too close to call.

Both teams are playing similar rugby, both teams have a lot of experience, neither have many injuries to consider. Both also seem to start really strong, race out of the blocks all aggression and Celtic anger and then fizzle out a little on the second half, that'll be the interesting time. Which ever team controls that 50-70min period will win it IMO.

One thing we do know is that it's going to be bloody physical!

Yappy,

I'd agree with that, think both teams have different individual areas of strength over the other but as a team it's pretty much balanced out and matched.  I certainly have the edge at 9 and 10 which depending on how the packs to could be vital in controlling the game and making sure that the game is played in the right areas of the field etc.

Guscott is a WUM.

Griff wrote:Guscott is a WUM.

Wise Urban Metrosexual?

Wise bit is debatable Griff. But I agree with the rest.

bedfordwelsh wrote: I certainly have the edge at 9 and 10 which depending on how the packs to could be vital in controlling the game and making sure that the game is played in the right areas of the field etc.

Well that's a surprise - not just a moderator on 606V2, but you also play scrum half and out half for Wales......

Any news on Sexton's hamstring?

No 7&1/2 wrote:Any news on Sexton's hamstring?

He's Metro's problem now unfortunately. They'll do the medics and make their decisions on it for this week.

SecretFly wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:Any news on Sexton's hamstring?

He's Metro's problem now unfortunately.  They'll do the medics and make their decisions on it for this week.

They'll probably insist on a three week stand-down to finish on 21 March at 7pm.....

Its a very tight game. Wales are a good side, in the end... they beat the boks in Nov so they're not that bad a side.
The question I feel surrounds their pack. Ireland's lineout is very good, Wales' less so. Come scrum time also Ireland will have the nudge and I thnk that would disrupt Wales gameplan. I think its a 50/50 call as Wales look better than they did vs. England.

Backs on backs I think Wales have the superior side man on man but Ireland's pack is playing very well.

The only thing you could point to with Ireland is that they are not smashing teams off the park, they're not looking that threatening come the try line. If they lose this match they probably won't win the 6N because of it but there would be no stopping them if they do win in the MS.

Would be a huge loss if Sexton didn't make it, don't think it's conincidence that England started to look a shade better when he went off.

Don't write off Scotland at Murrayfield fa even if they did look awful against Italy they can still pose a lot of problems; particularly if they manage to get a proper fly half on the pitch.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Would be a huge loss if Sexton didn't make it, don't think it's conincidence that England started to look a shade better when he went off.

Don't write off Scotland at Murrayfield fa even if they did look awful against Italy they can still pose a lot of problems; particularly if they manage to get a proper fly half on the pitch.

The problem I see with Scotland is that truth be told I don't think their skill-set is high enough to play the game Cotter wants to play. They have problems going more than 5 phases of play and still keep the ball going forward. For Scotland to spoil the Irish party it would require a superhuman effort and one I think is beyond them to be honest.

For a long time I believed that Scotland's issues were mental, or lack of preparation, direction etc but whatever changes it doesn't matter, the results stay the same and the only constant is the quality of the players available I'm afraid. Perhaps the team has progressed but progress is only real if its done faster than the opposition.

fa0019 wrote:The only thing you could point to with Ireland is that they are not smashing teams off the park, they're not looking that threatening come the try line. If they lose this match they probably won't win the 6N because of it but there would be no stopping them if they do win in the MS.

A tad condescending to Scotland fa. They could have beaten France, should have beaten Wales and lost the plot against Italy. Once Cotter gets them listening, which he will, they won't be written off so easy.

The Great Aukster wrote:

fa0019 wrote:The only thing you could point to with Ireland is that they are not smashing teams off the park, they're not looking that threatening come the try line. If they lose this match they probably won't win the 6N because of it but there would be no stopping them if they do win in the MS.

A tad condescending to Scotland fa. They could have beaten France, should have beaten Wales and lost the plot against Italy. Once Cotter gets them listening, which he will, they won't be written off so easy.

am from Scotland, GA... its a suffering supporter thing.

The depth of talent isn't there which hurts them. Personally I think they are capable of taking any NH scalp on a good day but don't have the consistency at present.

Ireland are creating their own weakness using their biggest strength.

They kick chase..... so that's kicking yes (the easy bit for them) but it also requires running.  And running saps energy when you do enough of it.  So as other teams might prefer doing their running with a ball, Ireland choose to do their running to get a ball/or impede the collector of the ball anyway.

So it's a toss up which version of rugby uses up more energy - and that's not even beginning to take into account the more physical/defensive side that also requires a lot of effort over 80 minutes.

That's where Ireland seems to have that period at the end of a game where they look fully cooked on one side and ready to be turned over by their opponents onto the other side.

It looks basic rugby but it involves all players rolling up sleeves and driving their hearts to the limit to make the gains.
Wales too, when operating at their ideal level, expand much energy to try to draw errors from a frantic and panicking opposition.  They too seem to suffer a little towards the end because of it.

Ireland/Welsh game could be decided on which side best plans the 'purple period'.  I have a feeling Ireland will try to contain more than attack in the first half of this game (opposite of the way they played it against England)

It'll be interesting to see which side will be asked to do the chasing in the second half.

The Great Aukster wrote:

fa0019 wrote:The only thing you could point to with Ireland is that they are not smashing teams off the park, they're not looking that threatening come the try line. If they lose this match they probably won't win the 6N because of it but there would be no stopping them if they do win in the MS.

A tad condescending to Scotland fa. They could have beaten France, should have beaten Wales and lost the plot against Italy. Once Cotter gets them listening, which he will, they won't be written off so easy.

I hear a glass wall didn't listen to him either at Murrayfield. Concussion protocols for it over the next few weeks.

Jeremy Guscott thinks Ireland are in World Cup winning form and Wales are favourites to beat them next up.

It seems to me like these two positions are inconsistent with each other. It's almost, almost, like he's a rent-a-quote who doesn't need to think everything he says all the way through to get in the papers

Wales play at home in the next game, have a chance of nicking the championship, have a bigger backline than England and halfpenny who's excellent against the high ball. Sexton may be missing. You can see how people may feel they are slight favs?

Ireland have a very good team with a solid gameplan executed excellently by the 9 and 10 and have gone on a 10 game (is it?) winning streak. I could see how they can win the world cup with a slice of luck.

I dislike Guscott's punditry but is it make believe these 2 things coul happen?

No 7&1/2 wrote:

I dislike Guscott's punditry but is it make believe these 2 things coul happen?

It's not make-believe. Both obviously could happen. The game could be called off due to a bomb threat. Anything can happen.

The problem with Guscott is he tried to appear smart about it by putting two apparently contradictory assessments together and goading people to double take him. "Guscott is a complete idio......................................... he might just have a point, afterall, it could happen just like he said!"

Let's leave the World Cup winners chat to one side and for closer to the date, and talk about Wales in the here and now. Guscott should just have taken the courage to say he believes Wales now are favourites for the game against Ireland....period. And battle his case on more than the number of 'Lions' Wales have.

I agreed with Guscott to be honest. Wales should be favorites really even if we hammered them in Ireland last year and put 30 points on them in Cardiff the year before. They do have good players and with Biggar and Webb playing well I reckon they are a more organised and a more dangerous team. Those two defeats plus the dangling carrot of a potential 6 nations trophy on the line and home advantage will certainly make them highly motivated.

Their gameplan is very limited though so if Ireland get off to a good start and remain disciplined I think we should win.

In the last 15 Ireland v Wales matches in Wales. Wales have won...............




...............................just two games. In other words in the last 20 years Wales have only managed 2 wins against Ireland in Wales.

Fair enough fly. If Sexton plays I'd make Ireland favourites, he was untouchable against England, barely put a foot wrong. Without him I think Wales may just about have enough.

Wales to beat Ireland by forty, dragons to beat ulster this weekend by sixty. Lump your life savings on it #FACT

Guscott usually sits on the fence and tells both sides of the story at the same time. Not because he's 2-faced particularly. But because he doesn't know the answer.

He also follows the BBC line regarding rugby in Wales

theslosty wrote:


My combined team would be:
1 Healy
2 Best
3 Lee
4 AWJ
5 POC
6 POM Lydiate
7 SOB Warburton
8 Heaslip
9 Murray Webb
10 Sexton [Have to leave Sexton, but think Biggar is hot on his heels]
11 North Liam Williams
12 Henshaw Jamie Roberts
13 Davies
14 Bowe
15 Halfpenny

Nope ... disagree there, I have replaced some of your choices in the combined team, with who I think are better.. But of course its all opinions and nothing else..

I can live with most of that but....Webb?!

GunsGerms wrote:In the last 15 Ireland v Wales matches in Wales. Wales have won...............




...............................just two games. In other words in the last 20 years Wales have only managed 2 wins against Ireland in Wales.

...and what the hell has that to do with the price of fish...

Ok, I'll play that game.. In ALL Wales v Irealnd matches in Wales, 57 games, Wales have Won 35, Lost 20 and drawn 2.. It is MEANINGLESS...

No 7&1/2 wrote:I can live with most of that but....Webb?!

Yep, I think Webb will have the better of Murray in 2 weeks time.. But time will tell.

I actually think Biggar may have the better of Sexton, but it will be down to the Webb/Biggar partnership. They are turning into (will turn into) one of the best 9/10 pairings we have seen in Wales for a long time.. Maybe as far back as Edwards/Bennet (or even Edwards/John - if you are as old as me). But time will see...

Is it really meaningless?

At the very least it shows that in recent years Ireland win more often than not in Wales. Not sure how that could be considered meaning less when you are trying to predict a winner.

Is it also meaningless than Wales have lost 10 on the trot v Australia next time they play Australia?

I'm not as old but if they are going to be up there with them I'm sure we're all about to see some huge improvement!

I actually think the game is too close to call.. Wales may just (only just) have the favourite tag, being at home. BUT, recent home record against Ireland plus Ireland going for ALL the silverware, surely edges them in front as they have everything to play for...

No9 wrote:


...and what the hell has that to do with the price of fish...

Ok, I'll play that game.. In ALL Wales v Irealnd matches in Wales, 57 games, Wales have Won 35, Lost 20 and drawn 2.. It is MEANINGLESS...

as is 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% of our chats here

the 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000006% that is meaningful is the emoticons usually. They always make most sense.

No9 wrote:I actually think the game is too close to call.. Wales may just (only just) have the favourite tag, being at home. BUT, recent home record against Ireland plus Ireland going for ALL the silverware, surely edges them in front as they have everything to play for...

What?? You just said their recent home record was meaningless? Confused.

GunsGerms wrote:Is it really meaningless?

At the very least it shows that in recent years Ireland win more often than not in Wales. Not sure how that could be considered meaning less when you are trying to predict a winner.

Is it also meaningless than Wales have lost 10 on the trot v Australia next time they play Australia?

Its meaningless, as its not the same group of players on both sides over that period. So what's the comparison telling you. Only past results. You cant use it to predict the future.. Well OK, you may want to PREDICT, but would you put your house on it just on past stats. Hence, its really just hype.

You could also say the flip side being "law of averages" goes for a Wales win.. as I said, meaningless...

No9 wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:I can live with most of that but....Webb?!

Yep, I think Webb will have the better of Murray in 2 weeks time.. But time will tell.

I actually think Biggar may have the better of Sexton, but it will be down to the Webb/Biggar partnership. They are turning into (will turn into) one of the best 9/10 pairings we have seen in Wales for a long time.. Maybe as far back as Edwards/Bennet (or even Edwards/John - if you are as old as me). But time will see...

You took your bleeding time recognising the point! Guy was turning grey trying to get onto the blasted team. "What do I have to do here, for Christ's sake???"

No 7&1/2 wrote:I'm not as old but if they are going to be up there with them I'm sure we're all about to see some huge improvement!

Yep.. maybe, but what we dont remember, unless you lived through it (as I did) is that even Edwards/Bennet & John had some howlers... The thing is, the media never show those, only the magical plays that made them great. I actually think Webb/Biggar, given their chance, could develop into something special. I think Webb could be the next Lions 9, and Biggar will get a Lions call up. But Biggar has alot of competition for the Lions 10 shirt.

GunsGerms wrote:

No9 wrote:I actually think the game is too close to call.. Wales may just (only just) have the favourite tag, being at home. BUT, recent home record against Ireland plus Ireland going for ALL the silverware, surely edges them in front as they have everything to play for...

What?? You just said their recent home record was meaningless? Confused.

YES, the last 2/3 years, where we have some continuity in both camps.. Not going back 15/20 years as you did... and I was only refering to "favourite" tag, not using it as a prediction mechanism for who will win.

No9 wrote: But Biggar has alot of competition for the Lions 10 shirt.

Not at the moment he doesn't.  If he's fit Sexton will be the 10 - Biggar will be part of a competition to back him up.

SecretFly wrote:

No9 wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:I can live with most of that but....Webb?!

Yep, I think Webb will have the better of Murray in 2 weeks time.. But time will tell.

I actually think Biggar may have the better of Sexton, but it will be down to the Webb/Biggar partnership. They are turning into (will turn into) one of the best 9/10 pairings we have seen in Wales for a long time.. Maybe as far back as Edwards/Bennet (or even Edwards/John - if you are as old as me). But time will see...

You took your bleeding time recognising the point!  Guy was turning grey trying to get onto the blasted team.  "What do I have to do here, for Christ's sake???"

Agree it did take some time to give Biggar the 10 shirt. But I think he's now grown into it.. Previously, he was to impetuous and "inexperienced". I used to lose my patience at the way he would react to the ref, shout like a child when things didnt go his way... He's now matured into a VERY good 10, and has the potential to be a great 10, with his current partner at 9.

SecretFly wrote:

No9 wrote: But Biggar has alot of competition for the Lions 10 shirt.

Not at the moment he doesn't.  If he's fit Sexton will be the 10 - Biggar will be part of a competition to back him up.

Agreed... I wasnt suggesting the shirt was his. I think (at the moment) the shirt is Sextons. But there is competition there for the 10 shirt, and Biggar has to fight his corner.

Yeah i have always thought Biggar was a class act. I remember watching him play for the Ospreys v Leinster years ago and I couldnt believe how good he was for his age back then.

He is quite underrated IMO.

No9 wrote:I actually think the game is too close to call..

The opener in Cardiff was too close to call - Wales came a distant second.
Ireland v England was too close to call - scoreboard didn't reflect the control Ireland had.

Quite a few test matches that are too close to call don't end up being that close. When we have a firm favourite, it's often the way that the match is tighter than expected or results in the upset.

I think we might have an upset in Cardiff - a rare Welsh win

I always believed and said Biggar was the 10 missing and Priestland wasn't the 10 the publicity Welsh engine was hailing. But it did take a long time for Gatland and his men to work that out. I always found it weird but there you go, horses for courses and Gats was doing the picking.

The Lions finally got rid of the Irish deadweight in time for the 3rd test vs Australia and that resulted in a spanking for the hosts. Clearly this is going to be a walkover at home for Wales...

In all seriousness I can't see Ireland losing this if they adopt a gameplan similar to the one England used. France played the same way for 10 or so minutes at the weekend and the Welsh forwards looked like they couldn't cope.

offload wrote:

No9 wrote:I actually think the game is too close to call..

The opener in Cardiff was too close to call - Wales came a distant second.
Ireland v England was too close to call -  scoreboard didn't reflect the control Ireland had.

Quite a few test matches that are too close to call don't end up being that close.  When we have a firm favourite, it's often the way that the match is tighter than expected or results in the upset.

I think we might have an upset in Cardiff - a rare Welsh win

That's the one I'd ask people to read again.

I think Ireland will play the same way they did last year.. Complete discipline in their own half, to stop Halfpenny knock over the penalties.. If you don't concede penalties, then you wont go 3, 6, 9, 12.. points down. Unfortunately, I cant see the Welsh pack being that disciplined, and Sexton will knock over 3, 6, 9, 12.. and just keep extending the points gap.

Although both sides have fantastic attacking players, I don't think they'll break each others defence, which on the whole has been good (2nd Half Wales against England the BIG exception). So I think this game is going to turn into a penalty kicking dual. Unfortunately, as I said above, I don't think Ireland will give away as many kickable pens as Wales do...

SecretFly wrote:

offload wrote:

No9 wrote:I actually think the game is too close to call..

The opener in Cardiff was too close to call - Wales came a distant second.
Ireland v England was too close to call -  scoreboard didn't reflect the control Ireland had.

Quite a few test matches that are too close to call don't end up being that close.  When we have a firm favourite, it's often the way that the match is tighter than expected or results in the upset.

I think we might have an upset in Cardiff - a rare Welsh win

That's the one I'd ask people to read again.

Ah....you're just being smug because you won the caption contest

Guns.. I spotted my mistake (2 points) and corrected it... Must have been the same time you replied, as I was just going to reply to that and see the post has gone ...

Sorry...

No9 wrote:Guns.. I spotted my mistake (2 points) and corrected it... Must have been the same time you replied, as I was just going to reply to that and see the post has gone ...

Sorry...

You edited it too quickly so I withdrew my really funny observation.

.......it does add to the smarmy confidence levels, yes, offload

I'll be full of self-importance now for a week and then it'll be back to me normal self.................. full of self-importance