Title Decider 2: Wales v Ireland 14 March

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WALES v IRELAND
Saturday 14 March 2015
KO: 14:30
Millennium Stadium, Cardiff

Referee: Wayne Barnes (RFU)
AR1: Chris Pollock (NZR)
AR2: Federico Anselmi (UAR)
TMO: Graham Hughes (RFU)

*****

The bookies are keeping with their earlier predictions of no GS winner above Ireland's chances. And same for the Triple Crown.  Though they have Ireland as favourites in Cardiff but not by much.

Given the distinct love-in that we've had over the last fortnight between Irish and English fans, are Wales now the new 'old enemy'?

Keep it clean folks.

Well a bit anyway.

Ireland team:
15. Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster) 14. Tommy Bowe (Belfast Harlequins/Ulster) 13. Jared Payne (Ulster) 12. Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Connacht) 11. Simon Zebo (Cork Constitution/Munster) 10. Jonathan Sexton (Racing Metro 92) 9. Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster)
1. Jack McGrath (St. Mary's College/Leinster) 2. Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster) 3. Mike Ross (Clontarf/Leinster) 4. Devin Toner (Lansdowne/Leinster) 5. Paul O'Connell (Young Munster/Munster) (capt) 6. Peter O'Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster) 7. Sean O'Brien (UCD/Leinster) 8. Jamie Heaslip (Dublin University/Leinster)

Replacements: 16. Sean Cronin (St. Mary's College/Leinster) 17. Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster) 18. Martin Moore (Lansdowne/Leinster) 19. Iain Henderson (Ballynahinch/Ulster) 20. Jordi Murphy (Lansdowne/Leinster) 21. Eoin Reddan (Lansdowne/Leinster) 22. Ian Madigan (Blackrock College/Leinster) 23. Felix Jones (Shannon/Munster)

Wales Team: Webb, Roberts, Biggar, North, Williams, Halfpenny, Davies, Jones, Falateau, Warburton, Jenkins, Baldwin, Lee.
Replacements: R Hibbard R Evans A Jarvis , J Ball J Tipuric , M Phillips , R Priestland , S Williams

Are Wales likely to beat Ireland by a considerable margin to justify Guscott's assertion that Wales are favourites?

Wales don't just have to beat Ireland they have to beat them by a margin of at least say 15 points. That would leave them on a points difference of +20, and Ireland on +25. Assuming England at home put a margin of 10-15 on Scotland they will be on PD of +35-40. England could also beat France by say +5-10. So Wales could be facing Italy knowing they have to beat them by a margin of at least 20 and more likely 30 to stop England (or even Ireland) winning.

It will be interesting to see if Gatland has any Championship ambition by getting Wales to put a score on Ireland and so put some pressure on England against Scotland.

Surely a team with so many "British Lions" in it could put Ireland away, restore Gatland's faltering reputation, and justify Jerry's favourites tag?

The Great Aukster wrote:
Surely a team with so many "British Lions" in it could put Ireland away, restore Gatland's faltering reputation, and justify Jerry's favourites tag?

Why do you put this in quotes? Guscott didn't use that tag...

If, and it is a big IF about the size of Cardiff, Wales beat the 3rd best side in the world (gulp) on Saturday week, then they will have to put a cricket score on an Italian side that has it's collective tail up and will look to leave a legacy in Rome this year on the final day after likely beating France (don't laugh i called all 3 this week).
Can't see Wales beating Italy by enough even if we do beat Ireland. And even if we do, England will still put several on Scots IMO and that is where the competition lies for me….v England and coming 2nd. We've won it countless times recently and our eye is on RWC.
I love the Auld enemy but since the English regard 2nd as their god given spot in the 6 Nations, that coming 2nd is a consistent sign of good performance, it's time to turn the screw. If it's good enough for them it's good enough for us.
They stuffed us in round 1 and we face them in RWC so, for me, to knock them off their pedestal to 3rd would be a magnificent victory for Wales.

I think Ireland are quite clearly favourite for this, only just. I can't see how or why Wales would be given our form. I do hope we beat them with the correct ball in play though, and if we do then I think it is possible to put a cricket score on Italy like England did last year - but hopefully we'll have to beat them by a bit less. To be on the safe side let's just say we need a 7 point win over Ireland and a 60 point win over Italy. Apart from that I can't picture any more cricket scores in this year's tournament.

Wales lost to England at home. But under Gatland they always bounce back. They did it two years ago. After losing at home they won the title. They've already bounced back and beaten France in Paris.

I think Australia, South Africa and now England were all taken by surprise by Ireland's intensity in terrorizing them all over the park whether at the ruck or the maul or with high balls.

Big difference here is that Wales have already suffered a shock against this Irish team in last years demolition, which the Welsh probably felt embarrassed about. They won't let that happen again. They'll find solutions. They always do under Gatland.

Wales to win. But not by enough.

SecretFly wrote:

offload wrote:

No9 wrote:I actually think the game is too close to call..

The opener in Cardiff was too close to call - Wales came a distant second.
Ireland v England was too close to call -  scoreboard didn't reflect the control Ireland had.

Quite a few test matches that are too close to call don't end up being that close.  When we have a firm favourite, it's often the way that the match is tighter than expected or results in the upset.

I think we might have an upset in Cardiff - a rare Welsh win

That's the one I'd ask people to read again.

but scoreboard did reflect ireland's toothless attack combined with england's needless profligacy conceding silly penalties within range.

quinsforever wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

offload wrote:

No9 wrote:I actually think the game is too close to call..

The opener in Cardiff was too close to call - Wales came a distant second.
Ireland v England was too close to call -  scoreboard didn't reflect the control Ireland had.

Quite a few test matches that are too close to call don't end up being that close.  When we have a firm favourite, it's often the way that the match is tighter than expected or results in the upset.

I think we might have an upset in Cardiff - a rare Welsh win

That's the one I'd ask people to read again.

but scoreboard did reflect ireland's toothless attack combined with england's needless profligacy conceding silly penalties within range.

Or did it reflect England's much needed repeated infringing because their defence couldn't deal with Irelands toothless attacks.

quinsforever wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

offload wrote:

No9 wrote:I actually think the game is too close to call..

The opener in Cardiff was too close to call - Wales came a distant second.
Ireland v England was too close to call -  scoreboard didn't reflect the control Ireland had.

Quite a few test matches that are too close to call don't end up being that close.  When we have a firm favourite, it's often the way that the match is tighter than expected or results in the upset.

I think we might have an upset in Cardiff - a rare Welsh win

That's the one I'd ask people to read again.

but scoreboard did reflect ireland's toothless attack combined with england's needless profligacy conceding silly penalties within range.

God, I wish you'd take a hint from most of your fellow countrymen, quins, who have been really great about the weekend.  Obviously disappointed as were we last year, but realising it was two teams, only one of which could win and that was us this time.
You've been bristling all weekend and now into this new week.  Not willing to accept that your side were beaten.  They're a bloody good side that will give everyone else they meet a torrid time.  But they were beaten in most facets on Sunday.  They'll have things to prove next year or later this year but for now, just accept that.  You won't be able to verbally turn a loss into a win.

The Great Aukster wrote:Are Wales likely to beat Ireland by a considerable margin to justify Guscott's assertion that Wales are favourites?

Why do Wales need to win by a considerable margin to justify being labelled as favourites to win the match?

quins is a quins fan, therefore he comes from a rugby heritage that will use any means, foul or fair, to deflect attention from the real result.

SecretFly wrote:

quinsforever wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

offload wrote:

No9 wrote:I actually think the game is too close to call..

The opener in Cardiff was too close to call - Wales came a distant second.
Ireland v England was too close to call -  scoreboard didn't reflect the control Ireland had.

Quite a few test matches that are too close to call don't end up being that close.  When we have a firm favourite, it's often the way that the match is tighter than expected or results in the upset.

I think we might have an upset in Cardiff - a rare Welsh win

That's the one I'd ask people to read again.

but scoreboard did reflect ireland's toothless attack combined with england's needless profligacy conceding silly penalties within range.

God, I wish you'd take a hint from most of your fellow countrymen, quins, who have been really great about the weekend.  Obviously disappointed as were we last year, but realising it was two teams, only one of which could win and that was us this time.
You've been bristling all weekend and now into this new week.  Not willing to accept that your side were beaten.  They're a bloody good side that will give everyone else they meet a torrid time.  But they were beaten in most facets on Sunday.  They'll have things to prove next year or later this year but for now, just accept that.  You won't be able to verbally turn a loss into a win.

read my posts fly. was first to say well done to ireland they deserved the win. that doesnt mean i have to bow down at the altar of poor journalism and lazy rugby analysis, install Ireland as RWC favourites (Guscott and several here), Slam shoe-ins, without questioning what really happened in the game. There have been far more posters lauding this all-conquering irish performance than sensible questioners.

new zealand win most of their matches with less than 50% of possession. yet i am being churlish when i challenge the link between "possession" and "scoreboard" spouted above as why Ireland should have won by more? Possession is meaningless. its what you do with it that counts. NZ have taught everyone that.

The big question is will it be for the 3rd year in a row the game of the tournament?

I somehow doubt it as both teams have been playing somewhat limited rugby so far.

you're right Guns, Biggar is underrated .I've always said on here he would be THE welsh 10, self belief is something to be nurtured and channelled , many a youngster would have found it difficult to put himself out there after the set backs he's had in selection .But a lot of welsh rugby fans never rated steven jones, neil Jenkins, and ronan ogara or jonny wilkinson would never have been considered by those fans as a good 10.they want the rinky dinky maverick of old.
Through sheer guts and determination Biggar is slowly earning the respect of the welsh public...............but there are still those out there who are disappointed he's done so well. welsh rugby fans , they are not!!!!!!! they are only a fan of a way of playing. True fans should applaud a guy like biggar, instead they mostly make ' no comment ' pick on any error or praise everyone else in the team !!!!!!!!
if good old hooky was doing what dan is now doing you wouldn't be able to shut them up !!!!!! fans, joke more like.

quinsforever wrote:
read my posts fly. was first to say well done to ireland they deserved the win. that doesnt mean i have to bow down at the altar of poor journalism and lazy rugby analysis, install Ireland as RWC favourites (Guscott and several here), Slam shoe-ins, without questioning what really happened in the game. There have been far more posters lauding this all-conquering irish performance than sensible questioners.

new zealand win most of their matches with less than 50% of possession. yet i am being churlish when i challenge the link between "possession" and "scoreboard" spouted above as why Ireland should have won by more? Possession is meaningless. its what you do with it that counts. NZ have taught everyone that.

Ireland aren't RWC favourite!.  Who cares if they were anyway?  Is it a title that gets you free lunches in London or something?  It's journalistic ideas to create print to sell newspapers.  
That irritates you, that Guscott is spinning schitt and saying things he blatantly doesn't mean?  Talk to him.  Write to him.  Don't go looking for Irish people to apologise to you for his words or any of the words of other commentators over the weekend.

Ireland camp are thinking about Wales...only.  Many of us laughed at Guscott.


On your possession and scoreboard point.  What did England do last year?  How far ahead were they?  They had home advantage, home crowds driving them on, home preferring officials etc etc.............................  Is it easy making big scores on good sides?   Why do we have to kill off England to make you respect us?  England are too good to kill off.  We respect them, even if you only grudgingly respect us.

VinceWLB wrote:The big question is will it be for the 3rd year in a row the game of the tournament?

I somehow doubt it as both teams have been playing somewhat limited rugby so far.

Something has to give then. Both teams are going to rip it up. 40-39 win to Wales, seeing as we are favourites.

Risca Rev wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:The big question is will it be for the 3rd year in a row the game of the tournament?

I somehow doubt it as both teams have been playing somewhat limited rugby so far.

Something has to give then. Both teams are going to rip it up. 40-39 win to Wales, seeing as we are favourites.

I'll take that if it means we're a dead cert then for the World Cup.

They can win…seen the draw…beat France win group d, play argentina as ru group c, then semi v England or Samoa most likely! Ire v NZ Final anyone's game.

...don't tell quins..............

Hells bells! a draw! Didn't even consider that - that would be a nightmare...I'd rather go out on the shield.

I'm not sure if that result in Paris could be a bit of a false dawn for Wales. I thought they were well worth the win, and it is no easy thing to go to France and win whatever the circumstances, but Camille Lopez was a complete shambles against Wales. Aside from the missed penalties and the forward pass to Huget, he constantly kicked possession away needlessly and put them on the back foot. The try came direct from a little chip kick that a carbon copy of just failed about 4 minutes prior. Sexton and Murray I hope will be wiser when they have the chance.

I think Wales can take great confidence from the result, but I just wouldn't be surprised if it turns out it was an indicator of were France were on the day rather than Wales.

Must have been an indicator of where France were on the last 4 occasions then? They were also lucky to get away with a knock-on, forward pass and obstruction in the build up to their try in the most recent game, their only try in those 4 games.

Pot Hale wrote:

The Great Aukster wrote:
Surely a team with so many "British Lions" in it could put Ireland away, restore Gatland's faltering reputation, and justify Jerry's favourites tag?

Why do you put this in quotes?  Guscott didn't use that tag...

He used it in the post match 'red button' discussion.

I think Wales' success in recent times has been where we've managed to draw the opposition into our own game and slower pace of play, and that aerial ping pong and push up the pitch thingy that Gatland favours. However, where we've come unstuck against Ireland in the last 2 years is where we've not managed to draw them into that and they've maintained their own game and blown us away with their intensity. We just haven't coped with the speed of rucks and phases, etc. I'm not sure I've seen anything from Wales that suggests this time will be any different, however the only positive is that I don't think Ireland are as strong in attack this time round so it could/should be a closer game as I hope they won't cross the white wash as easily as before. I'm going for an Ireland win but a narrow one this time.

P.s. I won't actually be able to bring myself to write down an Ireland win on the 606 prediction game, in case an eagle eyed posters notice! It's just a superstitious thing...

The Saint wrote:Must have been an indicator of where France were on the last 4 occasions then? They were also lucky to get away with a knock-on, forward pass and obstruction in the build up to their try in the most recent game, their only try in those 4 games.

Dead right, in those four years they have finished 4th, 6th, 4th and are heading for 4th again. They have been cack. Like I said Wales well worth the win, but Lopez was playing right into Wales hands. I hope Ireland at least are a bit smarter with their kicking.

Marshes wrote:

The Saint wrote:Must have been an indicator of where France were on the last 4 occasions then? They were also lucky to get away with a knock-on, forward pass and obstruction in the build up to their try in the most recent game, their only try in those 4 games.

Dead right, in those four years they have finished 4th, 6th, 4th and are heading for 4th again. They have been cack. Like I said Wales well worth the win, but Lopez was playing right into Wales hands. I hope Ireland at least are a bit smarter with their kicking.

actually agree with this, I dont think we can go overboard about the result or the performance it was workmanlike but Ireland will be several steps up

For me, it will either be a very tough grinding game or it will open up and both teams will score loads. Either way I cant see, whoever wins, winning by a large margin.

Griff wrote:P.s. I won't actually be able to bring myself to write down an Ireland win on the 606 prediction game, in case an eagle eyed posters notice! It's just a superstitious thing...

Griff,

It's ok where we are concerned I always go with my heart rather than head on the prediction thread

There's absolutely nothing between these sides in Cardiff and for me the game is too difficult to call with perhaps Ireland on current form being slight favourites. They are a "team" as opposed to wales being more of a collection of individuals, although they improved on that in France. One thing that intrigues me is the negativity and begrudging appraisal towards the welsh team by everyone including their own fans. This is typified by the posts suggesting Wales beat a poor French side who missed kicks bla bla bla. Wales for me controlled much of that game and were well worth the victory. Compare that with Irelands win over France with a few penalty kicks whilst conceding a try. If those performances were reversed the media and the neurotic fans from all angles would be saying - Predictable Wales only scraped a win by scoring penalty's whilst conceding a try and they were on the ropes at the end of the game. If Ireland had beaten France like Wales did we would have had something like - Ireland dominate possession and come away with a controlled clinical performance in Paris which is always a difficult place to go.

This game will not be for the faint hearted and Wales will come out of the blocks on fire for this one. Whether that will be good enough remains to be seen. It does remind me of the 2011 RWC 1/4 final as the position was pretty much the same - Like I said, too difficult to call.

RubyGuby wrote:There's absolutely nothing between these sides in Cardiff and for me the game is too difficult to call with perhaps Ireland on current form being slight favourites. They are a "team" as opposed to wales being more of a collection of individuals, although they improved on that in France. One thing that intrigues me is the negativity and begrudging appraisal towards the welsh team by everyone including their own fans. This is typified by the posts suggesting Wales beat a poor French side who missed kicks bla bla bla. Wales for me controlled much of that game and were well worth the victory. Compare that with Irelands win over France with a few penalty kicks whilst conceding a try. If those performances were reversed the media and the neurotic fans from all angles would be saying - Predictable Wales only scraped a win by scoring penalty's whilst conceding a try and they were on the ropes at the end of the game. If Ireland had beaten France like Wales did we would have had something like - Ireland dominate possession and come away with a controlled clinical performance in Paris which is always a difficult place to go.

This game will not be for the faint hearted and Wales will come out of the blocks on fire for this one. Whether that will be good enough remains to be seen. It does remind me of the 2011 RWC 1/4 final as the position was pretty much the same - Like I said, too difficult to call.

Is that you yourself there Rugby Guru? If so, its been a while

I honestly don't know how this game will go but if there is more than 10 points in it then I will be very shocked.

When you look at the teams they are as a whole evenly matched with experience all over the park and some big talisman type players on both sides.

There are going to be some huge match ups in key positions which will obviously go someway to determining the outcome.

Wales are at home so that may give us some advantage but Ireland have a good record against us and won't fear coming to the MS.

The players (or most anyway) will know each other inside from the regular Pro12 games, Ireland are currently 3/4th in the World so should be slight favourites on that front.

You're guess is as good as mine.

RubyGuby wrote:There's absolutely nothing between these sides in Cardiff and for me the game is too difficult to call with perhaps Ireland on current form being slight favourites. They are a "team" as opposed to wales being more of a collection of individuals, although they improved on that in France. One thing that intrigues me is the negativity and begrudging appraisal towards the welsh team by everyone including their own fans. This is typified by the posts suggesting Wales beat a poor French side who missed kicks bla bla bla. Wales for me controlled much of that game and were well worth the victory. Compare that with Irelands win over France with a few penalty kicks whilst conceding a try. If those performances were reversed the media and the neurotic fans from all angles would be saying - Predictable Wales only scraped a win by scoring penalty's whilst conceding a try and they were on the ropes at the end of the game. If Ireland had beaten France like Wales did we would have had something like - Ireland dominate possession and come away with a controlled clinical performance in Paris which is always a difficult place to go.

This game will not be for the faint hearted and Wales will come out of the blocks on fire for this one. Whether that will be good enough remains to be seen. It does remind me of the 2011 RWC 1/4 final as the position was pretty much the same - Like I said, too difficult to call.

In fairness France were dreadful v Wales and it often wasn't due to pressure the Welsh put on them but their goal kicking was really poor and they just seemed all over the place for large periods of the game. Parra did make a difference though it seemed.

Wales half backs look really good and they have good units all throughout the team so it will be a really tough game for Ireland.

Wales half backs look really good and they have good units all throughout the team so it will be a really tough game for Ireland.[/quote]

GG,

That's why I think some of the match ups are really going to be huge. You have the likes of:

AWJ v POC then Toner v Charteris both of whom are what 6ft 10

Murray and Sexton are two of the best about at the moment and I think Ireland have edge there but Webb and Biggar are no slouches.

On the experience front then Wales have the experience in the centres and if both play to their best then would say we have edge there

Then there is the back 3, Halfpenny, North, Bowe and Kearney are all established class acts and whilst Zebo has been about sometime now I still think he's not reached his full potential yet.

That said I thought he had great game last weekend whereas Williams was quiet compared to games of late yet I really hope we stick with him as I think he has that little bit something extra.

It is me the Guru Nachos!! - GunsGerms: You're doing exactly what I'm saying many are, France also fluffed many of their lines against Ireland and lets not forget, Ireland were home, yet all we get is a positive appraisal every time. Wales were 10 points better than France and limited them with a strong defence. Halfpenny also missed a kick at goal. Looking at the game, if those kicks had gone over, Wales still controlled things. Wales are criticised for being boring and predictable yet Ireland are very very similar only their execution is much more clinical as evidenced yet again against England. Ireland kick most possession away accurately and they have their runners positioned perfectly most of the time - They will do the same against Wales. Discipline will also be a key factor in this game.

So are you saying France were great against Ireland in Dublin but Ireland managed to control everything and kicked their penalty's accordingly, whilst a better French team with Parra at the helm were woeful in Paris and lost in a poor quality game to a decent welsh side. You seem to be basing most of your appraisal, like many on the fact that France missed a couple of kickable penalty's. How about the welsh defence outmuscled some powerful French runners. All I'm saying is a 7 point victory at home whilst not scoring a try seems to be appraised by most as far more convincing that a win in Paris by the same margin whilst scoring a try. I thought the old adage was that France don't travel too well - But what do I know - I'm only the Guru!!!

Muchos Nachos Amigos

I would know your style anywhere Guru

Good to see (well read) from you again

How about some Chilli with those Nachos? Looking forward to a cracker in Cardiff - I'm back to the Holy Land for that one.

RubyGuby wrote:There's absolutely nothing between these sides in Cardiff and for me the game is too difficult to call with perhaps Ireland on current form being slight favourites. They are a "team" as opposed to wales being more of a collection of individuals, although they improved on that in France. One thing that intrigues me is the negativity and begrudging appraisal towards the welsh team by everyone including their own fans. This is typified by the posts suggesting Wales beat a poor French side who missed kicks bla bla bla. Wales for me controlled much of that game and were well worth the victory. Compare that with Irelands win over France with a few penalty kicks whilst conceding a try. If those performances were reversed the media and the neurotic fans from all angles would be saying - Predictable Wales only scraped a win by scoring penalty's whilst conceding a try and they were on the ropes at the end of the game. If Ireland had beaten France like Wales did we would have had something like - Ireland dominate possession and come away with a controlled clinical performance in Paris which is always a difficult place to go.

This game will not be for the faint hearted and Wales will come out of the blocks on fire for this one. Whether that will be good enough remains to be seen. It does remind me of the 2011 RWC 1/4 final as the position was pretty much the same - Like I said, too difficult to call.

Don't know if this is directed at my post above, but my praise for Wales is not begrudging at all. Like I said Wales were well worth the win and it is no easy thing to go to Paris and convincingly beat France, Ireland didn't do it last year despite the win and England came away with a loss. I actually mean it as a complement that if Ireland give Rhys Webb and Dan Biggar the time of possession that Camille Lopez gave them at the weekend, that they will be punished. The plaudits from the media have been positive rather than back-handed as well.

I did say that it may be a false dawn because of Lopez playing into the hands of two very dangerous half-backs, but don't let that take away from the performance, you can only beat what is put out in front of you

RubyGuby wrote: How about some Chilli with those Nachos? Looking forward to a cracker in Cardiff - I'm back to the Holy Land for that one.

Defo. Will be heading to Cardiff myself for this one. Beers aplenty I feel

The theory of France and Ireland and Wales is a good one, presented by Ruby.  I can get me teeth into it.  It tastes nice.

Your theory in brief is that Ireland struggled against France at home and Wales ate them alive in Paris?

I wouldn't see much wrong with that at all Ruby.  But I'd like you to keep to the guts of those perceptions.  Wales played well - Ireland played scrappy unconvincing stuff.  I agree.

The scores were:

Ireland 18 - 11 France
France 13 - 20 Wales

I agree with you.  Ireland played way below themselves (either forced by France or doing enough to be enough) - Wales played with a bounce in their stride.

RubyGuby wrote:It is me the Guru Nachos!! - GunsGerms: You're doing exactly what I'm saying many are, France also fluffed many of their lines against Ireland and lets not forget, Ireland were home, yet all we get is a positive appraisal every time. Wales were 10 points better than France and limited them with a strong defence. Halfpenny also missed a kick at goal. Looking at the game, if those kicks had gone over, Wales still controlled things. Wales are criticised for being boring and predictable yet Ireland are very very similar only their execution is much more clinical as evidenced yet again against England. Ireland kick most possession away accurately and they have their runners positioned perfectly most of the time - They will do the same against Wales. Discipline will also be a key factor in this game.

So are you saying France were great against Ireland in Dublin but Ireland managed to control everything and kicked their penalty's accordingly, whilst a better French team with Parra at the helm were woeful in Paris and lost in a poor quality game to a decent welsh side. You seem to be basing most of your appraisal, like many on the fact that France missed a couple of kickable penalty's. How about the welsh defence outmuscled some powerful French runners. All I'm saying is a 7 point victory at home whilst not scoring a try seems to be appraised by most as far more convincing that a win in Paris by the same margin whilst scoring a try. I thought the old adage was that France don't travel too well - But what do I know - I'm only the Guru!!!

Muchos Nachos Amigos

No I just think France were better against Ireland. The certainly missed less kicks. Ireland were weak enough too v France.

So assuming Ireland are going to play for territory with the boot and attack Wales in the lineout and with the maul...which they typically don't defend so well...probably try and isolate North in defence with the cross field kicks and grubbers.

Where then do Wales see where the can attack Ireland?

The scrum? - assuming Ross can get an edge on Jenkins, can Samson Lee cause McGrath problems? Ireland only had one scrum in the first 40 against England and shaded the scrum, until Ross went off, so this percieved weakness hasn't emerged so far.

Where Wales have hurt Ireland in recent times is the ball from Phillips to Roberts into midfield.

However Ireland midfield's defence is probably the strongest in the championship and much more agressive than France's, or even England's, which Wales couldn't deal with in game one. Henshaw is a big powerful guy and he and Payne have been very solid in defence with great linespeed.

If you accept the old cliche that if you stop Roberts, you stop Wales, and accept that on recent evidence Ireland are the best equipped side to stop him then what is plan B from Wales in attack?

Add that to the fact our discipline is very good so won't concede many kickable penalties in our own half, it's hard to see past an Ireland win on paper based on the way the 2 sides are playing.

So what am I missing here? Where tactically do Wales cause problems?

I don't think at the time anyone was saying the Ireland victory was convincing, it was an awful slog. In fact I think most people felt the first two Irish performances were underwhelming following the pomp and promise of the autumn victories. Wales victory was certainly more convincing.

But while I think Wales pressurized the French well and took their chances, there were a lot of unforced errors from Lopez. The Welsh try was a result of a ridiculous chip kick, never mind his kicking from the tee.

If that was Ian Madigan attempting that the Irish fans would be wringing his proverbial neck.

wales were pretty good at neutralising france's rolling maul. charteris and his 8ft retractable arms caused all kinds of problems for france.

neither ireland or wales look particularly dangerous ball in hand, or lets say choose not to attempt much high risk passing. So it's going to be about who dominates the collision and navigates the grey areas of the ruck and maul better without conceding penalties.

ireland slight favourites for me, but sexton's hamstring may be the deciding factor.

Sexton wont be injured, the strain was minor.

GavinDragon wrote:

Marshes wrote:

The Saint wrote:Must have been an indicator of where France were on the last 4 occasions then? They were also lucky to get away with a knock-on, forward pass and obstruction in the build up to their try in the most recent game, their only try in those 4 games.

Dead right, in those four years they have finished 4th, 6th, 4th and are heading for 4th again. They have been cack. Like I said Wales well worth the win, but Lopez was playing right into Wales hands. I hope Ireland at least are a bit smarter with their kicking.

actually agree with this, I dont think we can go overboard about the result or the performance it was workmanlike but Ireland will be several steps up

Ireland will definitely be a step-up but still, I bet they wouldn't mind a record like that over France .

Did France really finish last in one tournament? I don't remember that.

Well Ireland are also unbeaten against France in their last 4 games.

quinsforever wrote:wales were pretty good at neutralising france's rolling maul. charteris and his 8ft retractable arms caused all kinds of problems for france.

neither ireland or wales look particularly dangerous ball in hand, or lets say choose not to attempt much high risk passing. So it's going to be about who dominates the collision and navigates the grey areas of the ruck and maul better without conceding penalties.

ireland slight favourites for me, but sexton's hamstring may be the deciding factor.

Considering most of the Wales side play in France, the result at the weekend was as predictable as they come - it was practiacally a home game.

However a lot of the Welsh guys aren't used to that Pro12 pace anymore or the british weather conditions, so this will be a different kettle of fish.

GunsGerms wrote:Well Ireland are also unbeaten against France in their last 4 games.

2 scrappy wins and 2 pathetic draws...

rodders wrote:So assuming Ireland are going to play for territory with the boot and attack Wales in the lineout and with the maul...which they typically don't defend so well...probably try and isolate North in defence with the cross field kicks and grubbers.

Where then do Wales see where the can attack Ireland?

The scrum? - assuming Ross can get an edge on Jenkins, can Samson Lee cause McGrath problems? Ireland only had one scrum in the first 40 against England and shaded the scrum, until Ross went off, so this percieved weakness hasn't emerged so far.

Where Wales have hurt Ireland in recent times is the ball from Phillips to Roberts into midfield.

However Ireland midfield's defence is probably the strongest in the championship and much more agressive than France's, or even England's, which Wales couldn't deal with in game one. Henshaw is a big powerful guy and he and Payne have been very solid in defence with great linespeed.

If you accept the old cliche that if you stop Roberts, you stop Wales, and accept that on recent evidence Ireland are the best equipped side to stop him then what is plan B from Wales in attack?

Add that to the fact our discipline is very good so won't concede many kickable penalties in our own half, it's hard to see past an Ireland win on paper based on the way the 2 sides are playing.

So what am I missing here? Where tactically do Wales cause problems?

They don't need tactics.  All they need is a few of their bits and pieces if they work close to our line.  
You know, the full team mauls just on the line?  The quick tap and go that IRELAND ARE NEVER F**KING READY FOR EVEN THOUGH WALES ARE DIVILS FOR THEM!!!!!  (Schmidt and boys are you listening???!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
So I'd expect a few tricks from Gat's boys to put a try in where Ireland might be lazy enough not to expect it.

Alertness for a full 80 is a lesson to be learnt against both Wales and England.  No time for taking a break, turning your back, thinking they'll go through normal processes, having team huddles..................... no time for any of that.  Eyes on the ball all the time, ready to react for a full 80 - Even in stoppage time.  Because that's what Wales will be fixing to try a few times - catching Ireland in any less than alert period.

Oh these guys can hurt in an instant.  It's nothing to do with overall team tactics or overall gameplan.

So there we have it, Ireland playing gradually controlled and clinical rugby game upon game Whilst a one dimensional Wales look bereft unless opponents are gifting them possession and missing simple pots at goal - I like the way this is going, very similar to the RWC 1/4 final as suggested earlier. Without Phillips to Roberts we have very little to offer in the hope of penetrating that impenetrable Irish defence. I suggested on the BBC this week that we bring back the ball boy from 2011 to continue his role in this match. I have also suggested 7 other techniques of how to penetrate the impenetrable. It's all looking like a classic. At this rate it's destined to be a 6 all draw with Sexton missing 6 penalty's and Halfpenny fluking one off the post in the 84th minute for the draw.

By the way, whilst I am more than happy to accept that Ireland have faltered and/or stuttered through the first couple of games - Couldn't the same be said of Wales, or is that pushing it a bit against these mighty men in Green who after all have amassed 1 Grand Slam in 60 years. Its just a thought