Lions v Australia: Who do you think will win and by what margin?

Ok enough debate and time to put down what you think will be the result on Saturday. This for me is the biggest game of the year on the rugby calendar and can't wait for it to kick off! 

So....I'm keen to see what our expert community think before heading down to the bookies and burning some cash! Simple poll, go vote and would be keen to hear why.

Personally i think australia by more than 7, because they have a solid pack that will match our own at scrum and lineout,, will dominate the breakdown and edge gamebreakers in the backline - just about!

I have gone for Lions my more than 7 only because whn I put my bets on tomorrow I will go for the 6-10pts winning margin but that options not there on the poll

Bedford are you counting on halfpenny kicking us to success then?

lj,

I don't care who kicks or scores us to success as long as they do it and its between 6-10 points

Lions 24-14 Australia.

I believe that Jake White said who ever win's the first test will win the series. I would like the Lions to win the series, but they must play better this saturday than they did last tuesday.

I've gone for the Lions 7 points or less.

Hope Lions do it, but I can see Aussies by more than 7.

Possibly...

Aus 29 Lions 15

I really worry about the breakdown given the Lions backrow.  I so want the Lions to win but feel Australia will take it because they dominate the breakdown.  Gatland will then look to change the approach to the breakdown, perhaps bringing in Tipuric for the second test.

Hasn't been the case in the last two Oz-Lions series, and it's not impossible that history will repeat itself. I'm quite confident for the Lions first time up; considering the backs that he has at his disposal, I think that Deans has given the Lions the best possible chance to create some havoc early on, and I expect them to withstand a second half Wallaby revival with a reasonable degree of comfort. Injuries, especially Lions injuries may play a decisive role in the last two Tests; time will tell, I guess, but I expect the Wallabies to strip fitter for their first hit-out.

maj,

The test side bares no resemblance to Tuesdays side and nor will the performance.

bedfordwelsh wrote:maj,

The test side bares no resemblance to Tuesdays side and nor will the performance.

Agree with the first bit (obviously) but it will be a big step up. I think we may be surprised by how good the Aussies are. It might not be that the Lions 1st Test side plays badly but the Aussies will not allow them to play into space like the other sides did, not even the Reds and Brumbies (who were shorn of many players).

Maybe I'm being pessimistic, but I'm worried.

Cyril,

Not meant to sound as knocking the Aussies but the perfromance by the Lions won't compare in anyway shape or form to Tuesdays game, will it be enough to win the game well I am a betting man and my money will go on a Lions win.

It won't be comfortable but I think we will win.

Artful_Dodger wrote:I really worry about the breakdown given the Lions backrow. I so want the Lions to win but feel Australia will take it because they dominate the breakdown. Gatland will then look to change the approach to the breakdown, perhaps bringing in Tipuric for the second test.

Agreed, I go with Aus by less than 7, I hope I am wrong but the back row balance/ understanding could be exposed also Warburton getting injured (which is not unknown) will tip the balance towards Aus with no cover on the bench. The back cover is going down in my estimation Maitland and Youngs and Farrel. Youngs service is slower than Phillips his passes are shorter and they are all over the place, the other two are in the squad because who they know.

bedfordwelsh wrote:Cyril,

Not meant to sound as knocking the Aussies but the perfromance by the Lions won't compare in anyway shape or form to Tuesdays game, will it be enough to win the game well I am a betting man and my money will go on a Lions win.

It won't be comfortable but I think we will win.

Fair enough bedford.

It's just that the Aussies seem to be keeping their powder dry and, more than not, seem to win when they're not favoured. That's why I'm not sure at all. I still worry the Lions are going for power, an assumed scrum ascendancy and the hoping the rest will follow.

I hope you're right

majesticimperialman wrote:I believe that Jake White said who ever win's the first test will win the series. I would like the Lions to win the series, but they must play better this saturday than they did last tuesday.

I've gone for the Lions 7 points or less.

I'd challenge that view. i think australia will win first, lions the second (with tipuric, sob and youngs starting) and a too close to call third test - at least thats how i'd like it to pan out.

I think Australia will win by an unconverted try.

bedfordwelsh wrote:maj,

The test side bares no resemblance to Tuesdays side and nor will the performance.

Bedford 

I hear what you say,.but none the Less the team that played on Tuseday did play in the Lions name.

I certainly hope it is a good game.

Maj,

I think it will be a cracker, I reckon Gats has a few tricks up his sleeve that they haven't shown yet and the Aussies always like to play rugby and unfortunately as us Welsh know all to well they will play for the full 80 odd minutes and won't give up

Nightmare, I think one of the teams will win by exactly 7 points so don't know which button to press . . .

bedfordwelsh wrote:Maj,

I think it will be a cracker, I reckon Gats has a few tricks up his sleeve that they haven't shown yet and the Aussies always like to play rugby and unfortunately as us Welsh know all to well they will play for the full 80 odd minutes and won't give up

Bed:

You have a lot more confidence than me regarding Gatland, what tricks have you seen from Gatland as Wales coach, we are still playing the same way since 2009, it so happens Wales have a lot of good players and most deserve their selection? The last Lions game backfired the backs played as if they never met and the hooker could not hit a barn door. Yes this was not a test team but should perform much better they were lucky to come second. You should know Gatland does some strange selections over the years and Wales record in AI's is hiss poor for the reasons given.

I am sure it will be a good game, the only trick I can think of is throwing the ball straight into the lineout or Youngs throwing to the back.

I think the biggest positive is JD2 playing rather than the predictable smash bang of Roberts.

bedfordwelsh wrote:Maj,

I think it will be a cracker, I reckon Gats has a few tricks up his sleeve that they haven't shown yet and the Aussies always like to play rugby and unfortunately as us Welsh know all to well they will play for the full 80 odd minutes and won't give up

Gatland is a one trick pony. The only thing up his sleeves are his arms

Voting wise this is proving tight as a knats a**. Making me doubt whether to go down to the bookies and instead spend it on alcohol on saturday....

Aus 16 Lions 23

It's an interesting one with both sides somewhat depleted by injury but there are still some intriguing match-ups.

The Lions should hold an edge in the scrum and possibly at the lineout if Youngs' throwing goes well.
Bearing in mind that the Lions backline should have some tricks up their sleeves I see both teams' attacking threat as pretty high. Phillips' performance will be crucial. The Aussies could get a grip on the breakdown however, especially with Gatland leaving out Tipuric and SOB out of the squad but Heaslip and Warburton are stlil pretty strong there along with some help from BOD and Cole off the bench.

I see the Lions nicking this one on the basis of three reasons:
 - Halfpenny is in sublime kicking form and it cannot be overlooked that I would favour him in a kicking duel with O'Connor
 - Jonny Sexton is a more proven and arguably better ten than JOC and if he clicks like he can the Lions will be very difficult to beat IMO
 -The Lions have so many leaders and experienced heads around the park,take your pick from A Jones, AWJ, POC, Warbs, Heaslip, Phillips, Sexton and BOD - any one of those could drag the Lions over the line

It's gonna be an absolute cracker I reckon 

I reckon Croft may get a decisivie try.

MOTM?

Halfpenny
Halfpenny
Or Halfpenny?

t1000advancedprototype wrote:MOTM?

Halfpenny
Halfpenny
Or Halfpenny?

I REALLY hope it's not all kicking. But, if it may well be with the Lions tactics.

I'm worried that Phillips and Sexton are going to targeted with late hits. It happened a lot in the Brumbies game and the ref and linesman did nothing. Now Phillips is unlikely to get hurt - being part tank - but can see him carded for retaliation. Sexton is already fragile coming back from injury.

Ahh the enigma that is the Lions. I fail to see how the best of B&I, reasonably coached and organized, could possibly fail to beat Oz - three times. However, who knows?

This is the most eagerly anticipated test I've known where the AB's are not involved.
Back to back test matches for us Saturday night with the AB's as the curtain raiser...heaven...

I've jumped between the Lions and Oz several times- although I think the Lions will get the initial jump on Oz, I don't think they'll win the series so it really means if theyre going to win one this will be it, so I'll go Lions narrowly...then have a rethink from there.

Just hope its a great game that some referee doesnt ruin.

The battle of the loosies, 10's and back 3 is what I'll be watching for...can't wait...

If this game sees a winning margin of more than 7 I'll be surprised. Australia have players in key positions like JOC who will either be sublime or made to look ordinary. Which one will be determined by how the Aussie pack fares at the breakdown. If they can win that battle the backline will be given time and space. That said Australia will be able to live off scraps as well. Rugby viewing starts for me 930 CET and I hope my breakfast is overshadowed by the rugby. I'm pulling out all the stops for brekky so my expectations are big. NZ to complete the clean sweep and Australia to be inspired by their ANZAC brothers and to overcome adversity. Australia by 6.

the club sides tactics was to get Philips sent off or banned perhaps for this game . just read an article that Australia is worrying about him . i went for an ozzy win mainly because of our weak backs bench . can't see anyone other then the front row forwards making a difference coming on . hopefully Im wrong

nobbled wrote:I'm worried that Phillips and Sexton are going to targeted with late hits. It happened a lot in the Brumbies game and the ref and linesman did nothing. Now Phillips is unlikely to get hurt - being part tank - but can see him carded for retaliation. Sexton is already fragile coming back from injury.

Sexton had a hamstring injury which isn't an impact injury. In any case Sexton isn't fragile at all. If anything the Aussie half backs are more exposed to big hits. JOC has come back from a sternum injury and Genia is quite small.

Here's evidence to suggest Phillips won't get carded for retaliation

Risca Rev wrote:

Here's evidence to suggest Phillips won't get carded for retaliation

Jeebus, McKibbin needed a feicin step-ladder to get his slap in!

It's a good clip aye. Classic little man's syndrome.

Lions by less than 7. It's going to be a close battle.

Risca Rev wrote:It's a good clip aye. Classic little man's syndrome.

Mike Phillips never suffers from that himself!!!!

fa0019 wrote:

Risca Rev wrote:It's a good clip aye. Classic little man's syndrome.

Mike Phillips never suffers from that himself!!!!

I don't think you could argue that Big Mike suffers from LMS, fa, it's just that sometimes he's a T-wat

Not sure about that AsLongAsBut100ofUs

He always seems to pick on guys bigger than him... although I think this in fairness is because he's targeted by them. Didn't he pick a fight with Bakkies in the last tour???

The other night you could see him getting treatment post pass... a forward would bundle into him everytime he had passed off a ruck. I expect the same on Saturday.... Folau and Ioane probably have a contractual bonus for scoring tries... Kane Douglas probably has a contractual bonus for smashing Phillips.

fa0019 wrote:Not sure about that AsLongAsBut100ofUs

He always seems to pick on guys bigger than him... although I think this in fairness is because he's targeted by them. Didn't he pick a fight with Bakkies in the last tour???

The other night you could see him getting treatment post pass... a forward would bundle into him everytime he had passed off a ruck. I expect the same on Saturday.... Folau and Ioane probably have a contractual bonus for scoring tries... Kane Douglas probably has a contractual bonus for smashing Phillips.

Lets just hope he has more composure than Farrell showed in HK.

Yeah, we wouldn't want to see anyone pushing someone over after being punched in the face and winning a penalty while the opposition get a man sin binned.

That Farrell, he can't do anything right can he, not even react well to being punched.

I see Australia targetting our midfield and winning the breakdown battle. BOD and Davies have never played together and the backrow is lightweight and unbalanced. 

Not convinced Youngs will be able to handle the heat at the lineout either and don't see us dominating the scrum.

Australia by 10-15 points.

Australia by 7, this will be a learning game for Gatland, he has seen his physcial game undone by Australia before and I anticipate that't what will happen tomorrow.

2nd test we'll see a better balance in the Backline with more flair and guile mixed in with the physicallity and win the 2nd and 3rd tests.

I hope.

fa0019 wrote:Not sure about that AsLongAsBut100ofUs

He always seems to pick on guys bigger than him... although I think this in fairness is because he's targeted by them. Didn't he pick a fight with Bakkies in the last tour???

The other night you could see him getting treatment post pass... a forward would bundle into him everytime he had passed off a ruck. I expect the same on Saturday.... Folau and Ioane probably have a contractual bonus for scoring tries... Kane Douglas probably has a contractual bonus for smashing Phillips.

Not sure he would react to a bigger guy either.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSaYdZeX6Rg

The backrow didn't look particularly unbalanced to me last Saturday - I thought it worked pretty well, and each of the individuals is playing well.

I think we've always known that neither scrum would "dominate" per se - it's very hard to dominate with refs being really picky on early engagement etc. Even the worst scrum in the world (as an Edinburgh fan I'm well placed to judge) can usually con the ref into given them one or two key free kicks. I don't think either side will "dominate" the lineout either. POC is a good operator but the Lions haven't really shown much attacking flair from the lineout - hopefully they've been keeping a few tricks under wraps.

This one will come down to fine margins. I think our pack is better than theirs, but only just, and I think our defense and goal kicker are both better and more reliable. I think the Lions will edge this one by less than 7. I think Sexton, Davies and BOD will combine nicely (it's quite a creative trio really) and I predict a big game from Tom Croft. I think the Aussie style of play will suit his ability to cover the ground at pace.

Lions, just. Halfpenny will kick 100% of his chances and Foxy will score a try. The Aussies will score more tries (2-1, maybe) but we'll have won through a territory game

Aus by 9 points is my guess. I think that Gatland picked his test team 6 months ago, and as injuries arose has plugged in unsuited players into an already flawed gameplan. Its going to be wet supposedly tomorrow, and we pick our lightest possible backrow. Madness. i will be up watching of course (6am US time) and loving the lions, but I would love us to play lovely rugby.

Ruby's forecasts still up there with the best





Re: Lions v Australia: Who do you think will win and by what margin?
by RubyGuby on Thu 20 Jun 2013 - 21:34


Aus 16 Lions 23

ChequeredJersey wrote:Lions, just. Halfpenny will kick 100% of his chances and Foxy will score a try. The Aussies will score more tries (2-1, maybe) but we'll have won through a territory game

Well, I was right about Lions just winning!