Aviva Premiership - Round 3 Preview

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Fixtures:


Friday 20th September

19:45   Worcester Warriors v Harlequins   (BT Sport)
The BT cameras make their first visit to Sixways as we start the weekend with a vital match for both teams. In last weeks preview I talked about Worcester's inability to turn pressure into points, which according to independent observers was very true of their efforts against London Irish last week. Having had much of the territory, Warriors had the lead as the final minutes approached, but a late penalty saw Irish sneak a win and consign Worcester to two defeats in a row. They will need to improve to get anything from a fired up Harlequins side, who may feel they were unlucky in the rain last week. However Evans goal kicking percentages have been in decline for over a year, so it should have been no surprise that his frailties appeared. He has been an incredible performer for the former champions, but perhaps the decline is permanent? Warriors will have to dominate the Quins pack, and even if they achieve that, can they really score enough points. I cannot see it, so Quins should be favourites.



20:00 Sale Sharks v London Wasps
Sale will have been shocked by the comeback from the Falcons last week. Hold on for the win and they could have approached this match with confidence and feeling comfortable. As it is they will be feeling nervy and the pressure will mount as matchday approaches. Steve diamond will be working the team hard, and we can expect them to be really fired up come Friday.
Wasps have had some eventful Friday night trips to the North-West. thankfully we are unlikely to see a repeat of a few seasons ago when they refused to get off the coach, as the playing surface at the City of Salford AJ Bell Satdium is far superior to that at Stockport. Having suffered two very narrow losses, Wasps will be looking to open their win account - but will need an improved showing from their pack.




Saturday 21st September

15:00 Leicester Tigers v Newcastle Falcons
Leicester host the Leicester Development Squad Falcons in their first non-televised match of the season. If there is ever a time for Dean Richards to lead his men to a victory at Welford Rd, this is it. Bereft of half a team due to injury and international duty Tigers will not often look so weak. However they should still be far to strong for a brave but limited Falcons side. Tigers fans will be crossing their fingers in hope (but not expectation) that Toby Flood is ready to lead his team out - we need him fit, far more so than the other missing faces. Play as they did in the second half last week, and I shall be driving home a happy man.
Falcons secured a fantastic comeback victory last weekend, but surely two away wins on the bounce is too much to expect. They did win the A league fisture earlier this week though, so who knows. Might Deano rest some key players this week, in preparation for the home tie in Round 4 with a struggling Gloucester?


15:00 London Irish v Exeter Chiefs
Some stout defending allied to a couple of flashes of inspiration saw London Irish win last weekend. They will be full of confidence and looking forward to the Chiefs visit. You feel that for this match though they will really need to keep all 15 players on the pitch. Chris Hala'ufia is a massive player to them, but he has to stop the silliness that attracts referee's ire.
Exeter were seriously under par in Round 1, and scraped over the winning line in Round 2. They will need to improve further if they are to head back down the M4/M5 with the vistory their fans would have pencilled in at the start of the season


15:15 Gloucester Rugby v Northampton Saints (BT Sport)
Apparently woeful in Round 1, Gloucester were undone by Nick Wood's moment of madness in Round 2. That they could get to half-time with a lead says a lot about Gloucester's spirit (and something about Sarries conservatism). However, rooted to the bottom of the table, things do not get any easier with the visit of an on-song Saints team. Gloucester will need to play right up to their potential if they are to stand a chance.
Saints have always had a strong pack, but they seem to have some real invention in the backs too. Often slated, Stephen Myler seems to be enjoying both the arm chair ride and the talent he can use outside him. The skills of Foden and George Pisis, nicely complement the power and pace of North and Burrell.



Sunday 22nd September

14:00 Saracens v Bath Rugby (BT Sport)
Apparently this match is a Play-off Final rehearsal!!!  While not impossible, making such predictions so early, and in Bath's case rather flimsy evidence, is a risky business. Having said that it is a tantalising fixture which should tell us a lot about just how solid Baths aspiration to return to the top of English rugby actually is. This match will be decided primarily up front. Bath will expect to have the upper hand at scrum time, with Sarries looking to dominate the lineout and more crucially the breakdown. Despite their try count, Sarries backs have looked a little rusty - and struggled to score against Gloucester until their opponents were knackered. Owen Farrell, though, is continuing to stand much flatter and direct the Sarries in a way that bodes well for England.
With Eastmond still likely to be injured, Henson has to be better than he has in his two appearances to date. Bath have potential, but Sarries should win by more than a score.

The break was a fantastic mix of power and pace.

Sam, Logo really struggled at the scrum often going backwards, Cole dominated when he came on. He was also turned over in open play rather a lot.

Scully was unsure under the high ball, even when under no pressure as Clegg kicked poorly, and hooked and sliced clearance kicks. He just looked out of his depth.

I'm amazed you let Lewington go. He played full back for us today after Topsy pulled a hamstring in the warn up, and he looked a really good player.

Logo's ability to adapt to these new scrum laws is becoming a bit of a concern, he's still a beast in open play, though our support has been slow to the breakdown this season so I'm not surprised we were turned over.

Scully may need some time to settle in as he's not been a pro player before now. Worrying that he can't reliably claim high balls. Geordan may have a lot of work to do with him. Given that Morris has been outstanding in the first two games and Tait is still to return Scully certainly has his work cut out to get a longer term deal.

Ozzy we didn't choose to let him go. He turned down a new deal. Can't blame him when we didn't give him as bleeding game time last season, grr, that annoyed me at the time and more so now we see he is more than capable of stepping up to AP level whilst we spent the summer bringing back Hamilton and searching for fullback cover.

I'm amazed you didn't give him game time. He was a real late inclusion and Chiefs obviously decided to test him early with a number of high balls which he took all of very cleanly. It certainly gives you great confidence when you see your full back fielding a series of bombs really comfortably.

Ozzy you're amazed, I was generally pi$$ed off at the time. Morris was injured and instead of recall Lewington from Notts where he was in good form we decided to give Hamilton game time. Now Hamilton has been a great signing and for several years an asset but the time had come for succession planning and how Lewington didn't get a game I don't know. This was a year on from him causing the Bath defence all sorts of problems when we beat them in the LV Cup only to be dropped for the final. I don't know who made the calls on his amount of playing time but whoever it was fudged it right up.

I did tell you Lewington and Stevens would be good signings for LI.

Stevens we will have to wait and see. He's not had much game time yet and our scrum has gone to pot when he has been on, but I don't think that's been down to him, more down to the back up props.

Interestingly when we have had a front row of Parr, Paice and Aulika on the pitch we have been good in the scrum. Yapp, who we all thought would become starting loosehead hasn't really looked all that in his brief appearances.

Stevens is only 22 so plenty of development time for him. Regarding Yapp it may be he's just going to need some time to adapt to the more mobile nature of LIs play and also the new more technical scrum laws.

GG not happy with Bath!

Then why did you pick the 2nd team v Sarries Gary?

17-3 soon to be more!

This is a very disappointing match-up. It's the kind of performance I'd expect if JP Doyle had mistakenly awarded Bath a red card.

anyone know if the orange one has scored at all?

just mentioned it on the commentary, no score.

Hopefully Sarries don't pull the same trick again.

Frak Poopie Ref, Blind as a bat.

How many has Stretters scored this season?!

Indeed very strange selection from gold, all the real power men in the pack left out the run on side against the best in the ap??? Still shouldn't have got spanked by that much !

This Ref is a joke, fair enough Bath aren't going to win this game but as a rugby fan all we ask for is consistent Refereeing.

Scrumpy wrote:This Ref is a joke, fair enough Bath aren't going to win this game but as a rugby fan all we ask for is consistent Refereeing.

even it up for when bath played the tigers then!  

Watched the Sarries/Bath game.

A game of two halves really. Sarries took their foot off the pedal a fair bit second half but kudos to Bath for not giving in.

Ashton was excellent today (especially in the first half). Good to see him busy and getting involved a lot. Good defence too.

Good finishing by Strettle too. Farrell looked good.

Ford improved Bath when he came on and Bath's scrum improved a lot second half.

Henson was quiet. A decent kick through and a fumble summed up his game.

Sarries will take some stopping this season (domestically and in Europe) as long as they can keep concentration.

Cyril wrote:Watched the Sarries/Bath game.

A game of two halves really. Sarries took their foot off the pedal a fair bit second half but kudos to Bath for not giving in.

Ashton was excellent today (especially in the first half). Good to see him busy and getting involved a lot. Good defence too.

Good finishing by Strettle too. Farrell looked good.

Ford improved Bath when he came on and Bath's scrum improved a lot second half.

Henson was quiet. A decent kick through and a fumble summed up his game.

Sarries will take some stopping this season (domestically and in Europe) as long as they can keep concentration.

i'm not sure why but i just get the feeling that Henson has no confidence when playing. He just seems a different player from his old days.

Bath were dire. Don't think you can blame for the ref when Bath were dominated physically and they crucially lost the tactical kicking contest in the first half. The Bath support play in attack was truly awful, the amount of times a Bath player broke the line only to find themselves isolated and then turned over. Even when Ford made his huge break, four Sarries players were racing back to try and make a tackle but only Biggs made any effort to get up with Ford and even he didn't get in a position where he was any use to Ford.

Agree about Bath, sam.

I did think they were a little unlucky with a few conceded turnovers when Sarries players were off their feet but they were often isolated and you just can't do that against sides like Saracens.

nathan, yeah Henson does seem muted these days. I guess it's difficult to have a middle ground with him.

Scrumpy meant to write:
This Ref is a joke, fair enough Bath aren't going to win this game but as a Bath fan all we ask for is all 50/50 decisions to be given to us.

The ref was fine.

The ref didn't apply the scrum laws properly, LT. Neither side made it easy for him mind. But if he'd had the balls, he could have.

But he was not one-sided as suggested by Scrumpy.

LondonTiger wrote:

Scrumpy meant to write:
This Ref is a joke, fair enough Bath aren't going to win this game but as a Bath fan all we ask for is all 50/50 decisions to be given to us.

The ref was fine.

The Ref was awful Sarries players were off their feet ripping the ball on the ground, they were getting away with professional fouls and he did nothing time and time again.

Not just being a bitter Bath fan we didn't deserve anything from the game due to our coaches having a brain fart and selecting pretty much our 2nd XV for the 1st half.

Well sadly that result was on the cards when the teams were named, not enough grunt up front and a the TH at LH experiment only lasted 30 mins. Still, Sarries were awesome in the first half, so clinical when chances came and seriously aggressive in defence.

The second half was better from a Bath view but the damage was already done so in many ways irrelevant.

Re. The ref, I thought a few times Sarries could have been pinged at the rucks in particular, but it certainly wasn't the reason Bath lost.

Gold is a man who loves stats and analysis but I hope for next week we just pick a strong starting team and don't muck around. I'd hope for a big reaction from the squad for next week.

Actually I'd quite like it if he mucked around for just one more week

So round 3 of the season ends with a very familiar look to the top of the table, with the Top 4 from the last two seasons filling those spots again.

This will of course give ammunition to those who claim that the AP is predictable and won by money (though of course most clubs are now spending up to the cap). I doubt thoughthat any Saint's fan will agree that results are predictable

It makes sense though that the same four are there at the start as theoretically they should have finished the strongest last season so should be able to carry that over. Most of the other clubs are rebuilding or trialling new players and tactics so it'll take time for them to smooth out.

It'll be interesting to see who's in the top6 at Xmas once we've had an international window and HC rugby to confuse things.

Leicester, Quins and Saints are all a few injuries away from potential crises (the former due to current injuries, the latter because of squad depth). Sarries are the only team that look like they've built a squad that can weather the whole season.

Yappysnap I agree.

Saracens strength in depth is pretty ridiculous. We have our fair share of injuries but it hasn't really come up in conversation because Sarries have absorbed them effortlessly.

Still there is a potential for a fly half and centre problem during the IWs.

Worryingly for our opposition our pack should stay very strong.

Bath why oh why did you not play your strongest side to begin with? I should thank Mike Ford of course. Perhaps he still feels a tiny bit of loyalty to Sarries. 


Nice to see that Gustard and co are starting to whip Ashton into shape defensively.

beshocked, I think the plan was that Sarries would play in the same manner as vs Gloucester, ie peak in the second half. Then the big guns could come off the bench and nulify this.

To quote Blackadder, 'there was a tiny problem with the plan, it was bo**cks'. If Sarries play like the first half in Europe they could be very much in the mix come April.

Still, Bath have Irish at home next and then Sale away. If we could end up with 4/5 before the European break we will be in a strong position for the rest of the season.

Elsewhere, Sale and Exeter have both got 2 wins almost under the radar with all the attention seemingly being elsewhere. It will be interesting to see how they continue. In the same vein, not many people would have predicted Wasps to be winless after 3, surely that sqaud is too strong to hang around at the bottom for long?

doctor_grey wrote:For what its worth..........

Worcester Warriors v Harlequins- Quins really need to right the ship.  Worcester in early trouble?
Quins by 14

Sale Sharks v London Wasps - pretender v. contender match, methinks.  Will Wasps really turn it on?  Or was last season a mirage? Will Sale show some us some good footy?
Sale (at home) by 0.001

Leicester Tigers v Newcastle Falcons - hmmmm.  Difficult.  And many story lines here.  I suppose the question is how much the huge run of injuries will inhibit Tigers against a gutty Newcastle team.  Should be a close run thing.
Tigers by 3

London Irish v Exeter Chiefs - Critical for Exe to win to show top 4 or top 6 potential.  Critical for Reading Irish to continue to win to distance themselves from the bottom.  Exeter are simply better.
Exeter by 10

Gloucester Rugby v Northampton Saints - Gloucester must win.  I think Saints are due a a come down after playing well against Quins and Exeter.  If Saints win, it will show a steel which I don't think existed before.  Optimistic and hopeful, but Gloucester have a lot of talent........
Gloucester by 3

Saracens v Bath Rugby - Tough to call.  Bath finally look to be improving, especially in the pack where real improvement is critical.  Sometime an improved back line can be ephemeral (like that word?).
Sarries at home, win by 10

Yeah, righto...

Just catching up some fellow fans ...seems today..

Damage limitation.
The pack is showing signs that it could be good.
Backs apalling - pedestrian lacking any form of spark..etc.
Lineout is a MAJOR concern...no improvment since last season. Why??

Bottom line...Leicester we just another level..

bathman in london as you say it was a stupid plan.

Obviously Saracens played differently against Gloucester. Gloucester had 14 men for the entire game, as soon as they lost Wood the result was never in doubt. Sarries just ground them down - Gloucester got tired which Sarries exploited.

Complete opposite against Bath - they needed to hit the ground running against an understrength starting bath XV which they did.

Sarries got the try bonus in the first half they didn't keep up the same intensity in the 2nd half because they didn't need to.

It just felt like Bath didn't believe they could beat Sarries away which is not a good attitude. To be the best you got to beat the rest.

Sale and Exeter have gone under the radar sure but that's because they look comfortable in the mid table. I don't think either will be in relegation battle this season and don't think either will challenge the top 4.

Wasps have had 3 narrow losses. I agree I don't think they'll stay around the bottom.


Quins-Sarries looks like an interesting match in the next round. Can Quins notch up a win against the team they have struggled most with in the last 4 seasons?

The only way I can see Quins beating Sarries is if Saracens take their foot off the gas after three convincing wins. Its possible but not very likely.

I disagree with that yappy, I think if we play our best we will always have a chance

ChequeredJersey wrote:I disagree with that yappy, I think if we play our best we will always have a chance

I agree, though I would also say that it is easier to disrupt the Quins game now than it was.

LondonTiger wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:I disagree with that yappy, I think if we play our best we will always have a chance

I agree, though I would also say that it is easier to disrupt the Quins game now than it was.

Agree with that London Tiger.

I also agree with you chequeredjersey. Quins can win but they need the belief they can. Looking at the form book and the head to head in the last 4 seasons would point to a Sarries win but Quins are a good side. They just need to work out a way to to beat Saracens - something they haven't done in the last 4 seasons bar one game.

Bath's coaches did not believe they could beat Saracens hence resting players. That attitude led to a try bonus win for Sarries in 40 minutes.