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England or Ireland - Who will win the six nations?

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Who will win the six nations?

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Post by GunsGerms Tue 11 Mar 2014, 8:52 pm

First topic message reminder :

As much as I like them because France will more than likely have to beat Ireland by more than 50 points (if England beat Italy by 20 plus) they arent likely to win the championship.

So who will win? England or Ireland and why?

Some facts and figures:

-Ireland have won once in Paris in approx 40 years. They got a draw there last time they played there.

-England are the only team never to have been defeated in the six nations by Italy.

-It was 15-19 to England on their last visit to Italy. Their record points margin win in Italy is 47 points in 2000.

-Ireland have a 49 points cushion over England.

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Post by GunsGerms Wed 12 Mar 2014, 12:59 pm

Metal Tiger wrote:As I'm sure many other posters have pointed out... History is not in Irelands favour playing away in France... it has to be the worst away record in the 6Ns against a particular country. Having said that France are such a shambless at the moment and Ireland playing consistantly well all season I just can't see past an Ireland win on this.

I would like France to do us a favour but I just don't think Ireland deserve to lose against them.

Guess we are just going to have to beat Italy by 70pts!  Shocked Shocked Shocked 

Not including Italy who have only once won away Scotland's Twickers record is the only worse away record I think.

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Post by Marshes Wed 12 Mar 2014, 1:06 pm

wrfc1980 wrote:England really should be playing for the slam. They have been the best team this 6 nations and have outplayed EVERY team they have come up against. Two unfortunate bounces of the ball have robbed them of the title. Ireland have been good but were ouplayed by England.

Outplayed is a bit of a stretch. England were deserved winners I thought, but it was very close from my memory, and both teams could moan chances left out on the pitch. If Ireland lose to france, and England win, it is as well deserved as for Ireland. Both sides have been a league ahead so far.

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Post by SecretFly Wed 12 Mar 2014, 1:06 pm

WELL-PAST-IT wrote:Will Ireland's confidence hold up in Paris, such a very, very, very long time since they won there. If it does I cannot see any other winner, even if France perform.

However if France get the luck they had against England at the start of the match, I can see Irish confidence waning. I am not sure they have the never say die attitude of England's kids and as both England and Scotland have found out, France play until the final whistle blows, you are never safe without a two score lead.

Yeah.... a lucky try or two by France could unsettle the Irish minds.  Even more unsettling would be one or two well worked French tries!  Irish players would worry even more about that, as France will be much more threatening as a stable team operating methodically through 80 minutes than they'll be as a side with a few skilled chancers doing things on their own.

Only bonus is that now we have a coaching set-up that works meticulously on the opposition.  In Kidney's time he kept saying "Sure look...all we can do is look after our own game and see where that takes us.  You can worry too much about what the opposition might do"

This present coaching set-up doesn't have that laissez-faire attitude.  They'll at least have their homework done on what a French team that can actually play might get up to.  They'll have gone over the videos of when France do actually play and they'll be basing things on that kind of France, not the malfunctioning one that is (pretending?) to do the rounds these last few seasons.

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Post by Marshes Wed 12 Mar 2014, 1:21 pm

SecretFly wrote:
WELL-PAST-IT wrote:Will Ireland's confidence hold up in Paris, such a very, very, very long time since they won there. If it does I cannot see any other winner, even if France perform.

However if France get the luck they had against England at the start of the match, I can see Irish confidence waning. I am not sure they have the never say die attitude of England's kids and as both England and Scotland have found out, France play until the final whistle blows, you are never safe without a two score lead.

Yeah.... a lucky try or two by France could unsettle the Irish minds.  Even more unsettling would be one or two well worked French tries!  Irish players would worry even more about that, as France will be much more threatening as a stable team operating methodically through 80 minutes than they'll be as a side with a few skilled chancers doing things on their own.

Only bonus is that now we have a coaching set-up that works meticulously on the opposition.  In Kidney's time he kept saying "Sure look...all we can do is look after our own game and see where that takes us.  You can worry too much about what the opposition might do"

This present coaching set-up doesn't have that laissez-faire attitude.  They'll at least have their homework done on what a French team that can actually play might get up to.  They'll have gone over the videos of when France do actually play and they'll be basing things on that kind of France, not the malfunctioning one that is (pretending?) to do the rounds these last few seasons.

I do remember reading an article recently of an interview with Les Kiss, saying that they are meticulously analyzing France before the game, and where other teams may only see madness and chaos, they are trying to see the method in France's play. I think we see this year from Ireland's play the difference in tailoring for your opposition.

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Post by The Great Aukster Wed 12 Mar 2014, 1:30 pm

If England are as good as some of their supporters think they should be able to set Ireland a challenging points target. That will probably be enough to set up a French win.

France obviously have the best individual players of any of the nations, because they have been winning despite having no game plan, so the chances are PSA will have finally devised one by Saturday.

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Post by HammerofThunor Wed 12 Mar 2014, 1:34 pm

Out of interested and boredom I had a look at the impact of having it as a two year home and away competition with 10 games. So starting with 2000-01 as the first full competition the following would be 1st and 6th (* indicates it's on PD)

2000-01 : England (1st) Italy (6th)
2002-03 : Engalnd (1st) Italy* (6th)
2004-05 : France (1st) Italy* (6th)
2006-07 : France* (1st) Italy* (6th)
2008-09 : Wales (1st) Italy (6th)
2010-11 : France (1st) Italy (6th)
2012-13 : Wales (1st) Scotland (6th)

Of course starting on the first year of the 6 Nations is a bit arbitary as the teams weren't playing with this in mind, so ignoring the first season and starting on 2001-02

2001-02 : England (1st) Italy (6th)
2003-04 : England* (1st) Italy* (6th)
2005-06 : France (1st) Italy (6th)
2007-08 : France (1st) Scotland (6th)
2009-10 : France* (1st) Italy (6th)
2011-12 : England* (1st) Scotland (6th)
2013-14 : England (1st) Italy# (6th)

#Italy could go above Scotland if they beat England and Scotland lose. England cannot be overtaken by anyone else regardless of the last weekend results.


Doesn't mean Poopie but it's all information.

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Post by GunsGerms Wed 12 Mar 2014, 1:44 pm

The Great Aukster wrote:If England are as good as some of their supporters think they should be able to set Ireland a challenging points target. That will probably be enough to set up a French win.

France obviously have the best individual players of any of the nations, because they have been winning despite having no game plan, so the chances are PSA will have finally devised one by Saturday.

The difference is 49 points. Not even the great England team of 2000 who have Englands record win in italy have ever beaten that spread. That time they managed a 47 points win against a much worse Italy team. England were arguably a better team then too.

Even in Twickers the record spread is 60 points which was in 1999. Which would only give England a 12 point cushion.

England's average winning margin in the last ten years home and away has been by 19 points.

The last two games v Italy England have only won by a score or less. All in all a 49 point margin in Rome will be very hard to come by.

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Post by doctornickolas Wed 12 Mar 2014, 1:50 pm

wrfc1980 wrote:England really should be playing for the slam. They have been the best team this 6 nations and have outplayed EVERY team they have come up against. Two unfortunate bounces of the ball have robbed them of the title. Ireland have been good but were ouplayed by England.

If's and but's

I could say that Wales gifted 2 tries to England , which they did, and therefore the 11 point winning margin could easily have been a 3 point win for Wales.

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Post by rodders Wed 12 Mar 2014, 1:58 pm

I think some people are dismissing the feasibility of England beating Italy by 50 plus points too soon. I wouldn't be overly surprised to see them accrue the points they need to put the pressure back on Ireland in the final game.

Equally plausible and even more dismissed is the probability a fired up Italy taking another big scalp and leaving the final game as a winner takes all between Ireland and France.
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Post by SecretFly Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:03 pm

Look, I'm running out of things to say about this one other than to add one last serious point, which I don't think any of you have mentioned yet - and maybe some of you were afraid to contemplate it.

If............................
Maybe.....................
Might......................
But probably won't....

And you all know that's true.

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Post by Biltong Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:04 pm

"Ireland, Ireland, together standing tall...
Shoulder .. to Shoulder...
Together Ireland's call...."


I think that is how it goes.  Leprechaun 
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Post by kevinof Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:05 pm

As much as I would like to see it , I can't see Italy beating this English team. They are just too good for that, even if Italy are all fired up. I can (possibly) see England putting on 40/50 points if they are in a mean mood but I can also see Italy getting 10/15 off them.

rodders wrote:I think some people are dismissing the feasibility of England beating Italy by 50 plus points too soon. I wouldn't be overly surprised to see them accrue the points they need to put the pressure back on Ireland in the final game.

Equally plausible and even more dismissed is the probability a fired up Italy taking another big scalp and leaving the final game as a winner takes all between Ireland and France.

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Post by Mickado Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:10 pm

Biltong wrote:"Ireland, Ireland, together standing tall...
Shoulder .. to Shoulder...
TogetherWe'll answer Ireland's call...."


I think that is how it goes.  Leprechaun 

Close, but I've fixed it for you  OK


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Post by rodders Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:14 pm

We could be doing with more saffers singing Irelands call......  Very Happy 
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Post by Biltong Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:18 pm

Mickado wrote:
Biltong wrote:"Ireland, Ireland, together standing tall...
Shoulder .. to Shoulder...
TogetherWe'll answer Ireland's call...."


I think that is how it goes.  Leprechaun 

Close, but I've fixed it for you  OK

Cool, thanks, I should wash my ears next time. Very Happy
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Post by GunsGerms Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:19 pm

Anyone know what happens if two teams finish on the same points difference?

Does it come down to head to head or tries scored?

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Post by SecretFly Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:19 pm

rodders wrote:We could be doing with more saffers singing Irelands call......  Very Happy 

Strauss will be back soon enough, rodders.
Stop pushing for changes to the side!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You're a divil when you get nervous.

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Post by Biltong Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:20 pm

Probably goes to their head to head result in the tournament?
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Post by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:26 pm

Italy have only ever lost at home by more than 50 points once, that was against the All Blacks 20 years ago.

Even the best side in the world (TM) struggle to hump them by more than 40.

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Post by GunsGerms Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:28 pm

Great thing is we could probably select a team of Injured players or out of favour players that could really challenge the current first choice Ireland team:

15 Zebo/Hendshaw
14 Bowe
13 Payne (qualifies soon)/Cave
12 Marshall
11 Gilroy/Fitzgerald
10 Madigan/Hanrahan/Jackson
9 Reddan/Marmion
8 Copeland/Ruddock
7 Sean O'Brien/O'Donnell/Murphy
6 Stephen Ferris
5 Ryan/Tuohy
4 McCarthy
3 Moore
2 Strauss/Cronin
1 Kilcoyne/Mcgrath etc.

I think that team would give the current team a good match.


Last edited by GunsGerms on Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:29 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by SecretFly Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:28 pm

The truth is the 6N committee don't know what would happen in the event of the same points difference.  Short straws?  

They're only just after working out that they've had too many close calls with the actual cup, and have now produced a decoy cup so that they can have a cup at both grounds should victory go to England instead of Ireland.

One's real (with hallmark).... the other is a cheap dud.

Hmmmmmmmmmm...wonder who gets to have which at the ground they're playing in?  I'll be looking closely as I think we'll be short-changed with the dud.  If you see BOD biting the handle during the celebrations, then you'll know he feels the same.

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Post by Scratch Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:48 pm

GeordieFalcon wrote:
Scratch wrote:If Ireland win it will be deserved and will put their defeat to England in the right perspective.

I disagree...England have given up a grandslam by falling asleep in France, and were good for their win against ireland. Of course that wont change your green tinted glasses will it.

England have shown the most improvement in the 6 Nations, not difficult after being so poor v a dismal French side but the gamble on the wingers has paid off thanks to Brown shoring up the back 3. This is ireland's year, aside from the poor 20 minutes against England they have been the most consistent side and deserve the championship, England do not.

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Post by ChequeredJersey Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:53 pm

I think Ireland though it's toughie
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Post by No 7&1/2 Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:53 pm

Matters not a jot in sport who deserves what.

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Post by ChequeredJersey Wed 12 Mar 2014, 2:55 pm

The team that wins it will have deserved it. In sport your fate is generally in your own hands and deserve the results you get
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Post by quinsforever Wed 12 Mar 2014, 3:05 pm

have no problem as i've said many times with ireland winning the 6N. will be pleased for them, and their destiny is entirely in their hands. no way are england going to score a net 50+ against italy in italy.

but in general, i think head-to-head results should determine the victor on equal points, because environmental and pitch quality issues can have a really big impact on scoring in a home or away only 5 match format.

i enjoy the passion of the 6 Nations. but i far enjoy the format of a RWC. The winner is decided by who wins the last match. nothing else. not how many points were put past someone in earlier rounds. and the tension and drama of each subsequent knock-out phase are just fantastic.

6Nations is a decent tournament but its not great as there are too many random factors each year, and dead rubber matches. might be interesting to alternate 6N with a "Northern Hemishpere Championship" every other year, where national teams outside the 6N get to participatte and there are group and knockout stages. if 4N can become 5N can become 6N, then there are no sacred cows.

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Post by Pete330v2 Wed 12 Mar 2014, 3:05 pm

My heart tells me how Ireland will win on saturday because we are a better performing unit than the French right now. My head reminds me how the French, regardless of their form, can put their collective foot to the floor and beat any international side on the planet.
I keep telling my head to shut up.



It doesn't listen Sad

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Post by Scratch Wed 12 Mar 2014, 3:12 pm

Pete330v2 wrote:My heart tells me how Ireland will win on saturday because we are a better performing unit than the French right now. My head reminds me how the French, regardless of their form, can put their collective foot to the floor and beat any international side on the planet.
I keep telling my head to shut up.



It doesn't listen Sad

Punch that f$%Ker!

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Post by rodders Wed 12 Mar 2014, 3:33 pm

GunsGerms wrote:Anyone know what happens if two teams finish on the same points difference?

Does it come down to head to head or tries scored?

Tries scored then average age of the starting 15 I think.
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Post by SecretFly Wed 12 Mar 2014, 3:34 pm

quinsforever wrote:

6Nations is a decent tournament but its not great as there are too many random factors each year, and dead rubber matches. might be interesting to alternate 6N with a "Northern Hemishpere Championship" every other year, where national teams outside the 6N get to participatte and there are group and knockout stages. if 4N can become 5N can become 6N, then there are no sacred cows.

How many random factors would there be in a Northern Hemisphere Chamionship though, quins?  And how many dead rubbers?  Surely a competition of only 6 reduces the idea of boring rugby only played to fill out the however many levels that a NH Championship might have?

And how long would such a contest take?  We all know the Important main Clubs of Europe don't like their League shows being disrupted for too long by the nuisance factor of International Wink
And would the Tier 1 sides play the lesser sides?  And wouldn't many of those games be meaningless and perhaps dangerous cricket score games?

I think you guys over-play the readiness of the lesser nations in Europe to compete with the bigger sides.  It isn't football, it's a collision sport where high grade training and conditioning allows teams to inflict heavy duty physical pain and allows them (probably more important) to take pain.
And I think you guys over-play how interesting these extra games would be... as teams try to work towards a real contest where the best three or four sides play out the end-game.  Much like already happens on a yearly basis with 6N.  The 6N cuts to the chase.  'Meritocratic' contest of reasonably similar quality sides going at it to prove who is best.

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Post by SecretFly Wed 12 Mar 2014, 3:35 pm

rodders wrote:
GunsGerms wrote:Anyone know what happens if two teams finish on the same points difference?

Does it come down to head to head or tries scored?

Tries scored then average age of the starting 15 I think.

We'll win on the age thing.

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Post by westisbest Wed 12 Mar 2014, 3:50 pm

I think Italy have a couple of tries in them.

Can see them getting around 20 points.

Italy 20 England 35-40, somthing along those lines.

Again if we start well early, early converted try, penalty or two.
13-0 up after the 20 min mark.

That for me would be enough to get the win.

France c try 13-7 30 mins, pen Ireland 16-7, just keeping ahead by a score, keeping the confidence high.

Looking for the French to make mistakes, the crowd getting on their backs.
Some excellent Irish play.

Winning 28-18 something like that.

Hell i'm just throwing something out there.

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Post by quinsforever Wed 12 Mar 2014, 3:53 pm

fly, there is nothing you said above that i am not aware of.

the 6N idea is a good one. the format notsomuch, imo.

the big benefit of a different tournament would be the sharing of the money far more widely, rather than just the 6Ns themselves. would need to go hand in hand with proper development and integration of club game in the NH to be effective.

anyway, i really dont want to get into it on this thread. 6N is a good tournament, just not as good as it can be. it's certainly not what you would design with a blank sheet of paper.

i think the bookies have it about right. 50:50 ireland or england to win this year's 6N

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Post by Slow and Sedate Wed 12 Mar 2014, 3:54 pm

SecretFly wrote:
rodders wrote:
GunsGerms wrote:Anyone know what happens if two teams finish on the same points difference?

Does it come down to head to head or tries scored?

Tries scored then average age of the starting 15 I think.

We'll win on the age thing.  

Spoof for it  Very Happy

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Post by ChequeredJersey Wed 12 Mar 2014, 3:56 pm

Slow and Sedate wrote:
SecretFly wrote:
rodders wrote:
GunsGerms wrote:Anyone know what happens if two teams finish on the same points difference?

Does it come down to head to head or tries scored?

Tries scored then average age of the starting 15 I think.

We'll win on the age thing.  

Spoof for it  Very Happy

Think it's lower age the better, so BOD and D'Arcy and POC huge handicaps...
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Post by Slow and Sedate Wed 12 Mar 2014, 3:58 pm

Heart says England, head totally befuddled, something in me wants Ireland so that BOD can go out on a high, but all depends on how my ancestors (Norman) decide to play...

Help..Call the nurse!!!

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Post by SecretFly Wed 12 Mar 2014, 3:59 pm

Lower age wins?

Hmmm - as Batman (the 60s camp guy) once said: "Somedays you just can't get rid of a bomb"

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Post by SecretFly Wed 12 Mar 2014, 4:02 pm

Slow and Sedate wrote:Heart says England, head totally befuddled, something in me wants Ireland so that BOD can go out on a high, but all depends on how my ancestors (Norman) decide to play...

Help..Call the nurse!!!

D'Arcy is Norman. He's said to be doing the assisting this time for BOD's attempt at a hat-trick. So the form is definitely good if they pull that off.

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Post by thebandwagonsociety Wed 12 Mar 2014, 4:04 pm

Slow and Sedate wrote:
SecretFly wrote:
rodders wrote:
GunsGerms wrote:Anyone know what happens if two teams finish on the same points difference?

Does it come down to head to head or tries scored?

Tries scored then average age of the starting 15 I think.

We'll win on the age thing.  

Spoof for it  Very Happy

Spoof! There's something I haven't heard in years

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Post by Scratch Wed 12 Mar 2014, 4:06 pm

thebandwagonsociety wrote:
Slow and Sedate wrote:
SecretFly wrote:
rodders wrote:
GunsGerms wrote:Anyone know what happens if two teams finish on the same points difference?

Does it come down to head to head or tries scored?

Tries scored then average age of the starting 15 I think.

We'll win on the age thing.  

Spoof for it  Very Happy

Spoof! There's something I haven't heard in years

superb, how do we set up forum spoof?

or forum fives.

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Post by Notch Wed 12 Mar 2014, 4:08 pm

I've got a massive amount of confidence that this Irish side can go over there and win, but France have the potential to test us more in defence than any other side has precisely because they are so unstructured. The ultimate wildcard.
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Post by Portnoy's Complaint Wed 12 Mar 2014, 4:12 pm

Slow and Sedate wrote:Heart says England, head totally befuddled, something in me wants Ireland so that BOD can go out on a high, but all depends on how my ancestors (Norman) decide to play...

Help..Call the nurse!!!
I wouldn't worry about ancestral stuff, S&S. The vikings usually win the 6Ns anyway with their seed-spreading tactics whilst on their jollies to the Britannic Isles.

Even William I was a viking. Hence Normandie.

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Post by Slow and Sedate Wed 12 Mar 2014, 4:26 pm

SecretFly wrote:
Slow and Sedate wrote:Heart says England, head totally befuddled, something in me wants Ireland so that BOD can go out on a high, but all depends on how my ancestors (Norman) decide to play...

Help..Call the nurse!!!

D'Arcy is Norman.  He's said to be doing the assisting this time for BOD's attempt at a hat-trick.  So the form is definitely good if they pull that off.

Good job Haroldnordiquy isn't playing otherwise it could be one in the eye for him...I'll get my coat Run

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Post by Pete330v2 Wed 12 Mar 2014, 4:31 pm

Irish games have a habit of repeating history.

First rugby match at OLR Leinster v Ulster, result 20-12.
Last rugby match at OLR Ulster Leinster v Ulster, result 20-12.

2000, BOD's first game against France - Hat-trick propelling Ireland to victory.
2014, BOD's last game against France - Wouldn't it be great

Hey I know, it's grasping at imaginary straws.....

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Post by Sgt_Pooly Wed 12 Mar 2014, 4:36 pm

Nice to know after England smashed Wales you're still producing your normal stupid comments Scratch.

I can honestly say I'm not overly fussed who wins out of Ireland & England.

Both teams have been head and shoulders above the rest this year and are only going to get better, we're in a good place.

I'd like England to win because I'm English but it would be great to see some of Irelands old guard sent off with the win.

I can see a bit of dominance from both teams over the next 5 or so years, as long as Ireland replace POC/BOD etc well.

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Post by hugehandoff Wed 12 Mar 2014, 4:53 pm

Will be great fun to watch. The only problem is that I am playing in a squash tournament (vets) this weekend in Birmingham and if I am still alive in the tournament going into Sunday then I will have to take it easy on the beers.

Betting on an Ireland win is dodgy. Only 1 win in 40 years and a nice spring day coming up in Paris. Ireland are clearly the better team and certainly have it in them to win, but the odds are not good. I cannot see England losing so for me it will be their championship.

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Post by Scratch Wed 12 Mar 2014, 5:12 pm

Sgt_Pooly wrote:Nice to know after England smashed Wales you're still producing your normal stupid comments Scratch.

I can honestly say I'm not overly fussed who wins out of Ireland & England.

Both teams have been head and shoulders above the rest this year and are only going to get better, we're in a good place.

I'd like England to win because I'm English but it would be great to see some of Irelands old guard sent off with the win.

I can see a bit of dominance from both teams over the next 5 or so years, as long as Ireland replace POC/BOD etc well.

and you always bite Pooly!! laughing 

England have improved no doubt, but they will probably end up 2nd in the 6 nations again

As for Wales, this is normal for us, we still have a 75% win rate over england in this RWC cycle and after winning a Lions tour they boys are tired, we will still get 3 out of 5 and i expect us to do what we usually do and bounce back next year in time for RWC.

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Post by Sgt_Pooly Wed 12 Mar 2014, 5:20 pm

Just get over it Scratch and move on, your English hatred is petty and sad.

Lets hope for two cracking games at the weekend.

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Post by Scratch Wed 12 Mar 2014, 5:29 pm

Lets hope for a massive irish win and a reminder to england that they are half baked, with 1 championship in 11 years and 1 piece of silverware this year they are by no means the finished article despite posters on here thinking they are the 2nd coming.

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Post by Sgt_Pooly Wed 12 Mar 2014, 5:35 pm

Scratch wrote:Lets hope for a massive irish win and a reminder to england that they are half baked, with 1 championship in 11 years and 1 piece of silverware this year they are  by no means the finished article despite posters on here thinking they are the 2nd coming.

Back handed compliment for the English side there Scratch.

We're far from the finished article yet are number 4 in the IRB rabkings and have just hammered a very good Welsh side.

Imagine where we'll be when some of these young lads get 20/30 caps under their belt.

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