Is Nadal Now The Wimbledon Favorite?

First topic message reminder :

Last year Nadal felt unable to compete at Wimbledon but this year he's feeling a little better

"I want to try to play well again in Wimbledon," he said. "I'm healthy. That's the most important thing."

"I hope my knee will have the positive feeling on grass, because I feel my knee is better than last year on the rest of the surfaces,"

"Grass always was a little bit harder for me after the injury. Last year I tried, but I was not ready to compete at Wimbledon.

"Let's see how my feelings are there this year, but it's a very important tournament."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/27757048

Is Nadal now the favorite to add to his Wimbledon trophy collection? Nadal always has to win Wimbledon the tricky way as part of a channel slam but despite this I reckon he is now the favorite  

Jahu wrote:I made some waffles for breakfast for my favorite Nadal fan, KbN, since he is probably tired and is taking the tennis a little too serious   

I just had a closer look at the photo - you really did make him (or her?) waffles.  I love it!

invisiblecoolers wrote:I guess KBN should be allowed to continue the way he/she is, as long as polite and civilized all arguments are acceptable. You guys know better than me, i don't support most of his views but I like his/her presence, we really need a aggressive counter punching Nadal fan   

I tend to agree with this.

I seem to remember that when I read this post this morning, there was another bit in it with which I did not agree but either I remember wrong or that bit had been taken out.

I like Jahu's hand-writing, too.

I do not expect Kyrgios to blow away Nadal, but I expect a good showing. I would expect a late match under the roof. He has been impressive so far from AO till now, despite his loses.

Kyrgios has much better attitude, IMHO, than Tomic.

laverfan wrote:I do not expect Kyrgios to blow away Nadal, but I expect a good showing. I would expect a late match under the roof. He has been impressive so far from AO till now, despite his loses.

Kyrgios has much better attitude, IMHO, than Tomic.

I certainly do not expect Kyrgios to blow Nadal away either.  I am not even sure I would say I expect a good showing.  But I am hoping for a good showing.  But even if he himself gets blown away, just reaching the fourth round here is a pretty good showing for the tournament as a whole.

I first saw him play at the AO and I was quite impressed.  He is still very young but his game is quite good already.  Also, agree with you that his attitude is - or at least appears to be - much better than Tomic's.  He appears confident in his abilities but also quite aware of how much further he needs to go before he can succeed.  I am not sure Tomic ever understood that he needed to work hard to get anywhere.

I should add that I expected Vesely to win today, so was pleasantly surprised to see Kyrgios pulling through.

lags72 wrote:K_b_n : I think we've pretty much got the general drift of your perspective on the men's professional game, and its biggest participants.

Going forward, you could save yourself a lot of time (and your typing hand) by just modifying your user name to kneel_before_nadal_slag_off_everybody_else

Actually I just post about tennis   
Those who disagree resort to slagging, which you basically just did   
I may be the only poster here that isn't abuse to others   
I post about tennis, while others post about me   
But I'm flattered that my tennis posts mean so much   or that I mean so much
So thanks for the encouragement, it means a lot   

naxroy wrote:kyrgios is dangerous for nadal. why?

on grass just one little mistake and you miss a set. so the first danger is when you meet a guy who is unlikely to lose their serve, above all if you are having doubts with your own serve. and this happens to nadal a lot (against kukushkin at least he was not broken, but it was his serve which cost him the tie break)

as far as I know this kyrgios has a record of 76 aces in 3 matches, so nadal who fears big servers now faces the best one of the tournament so far (per his stats)

Nadal fears big servers? That's certainly not true in the Nadal-Raonic "rivalry", whereby Nadal has won 8 of their 9 hardcourt sets (including a 6-2 6-2 mauling at Montreal last year when Raonic had the best week of his career in making the final)  

Nadal also hasn't lost to Isner, although their matches are a lot closer.

Nadal leads Raonic 5-0
Nadal leads Isner 4-0
Nadal leads Karlovic 4-0

Rosol had a lot more than a big serve. Everything Rosol did was big. And more importantly, Rosol moved far better than Raonic/Isner/Karlovic. Nadal makes those 3 guys look clumsy. They are scared to death of Nadal.

But if Kyrgios isn't nervous/tired, then he will match-up with Nadal better than Raonic/Isner/Karlovic, because he has the wheels of Rosol (or even better wheels). But he doesn't quite have the power off both wings that Rosol has (but he has power). And he doesn't go for broke as much as Rosol does (but he is very aggressive). Rosol clearly has no respect for Nadal, while I suspect Kyrgios has respect for Nadal. So he's more like Rosol than Raonic/Isner/Karlovic, but he's not Rosol. Kyrgios is Rosol-lite.

Yes I would agree with this. Big servers don't ruffle Rafa's feathers. He has problems with players hitting hard, flat and deep who keep him pinned a few yards behind the baseline and move him around. That sums up why Rafa has such a great record against most players in the world as none of the top top players in the world adopt this game against him.

summerblues wrote:

Jahu wrote:I made some waffles for breakfast for my favorite Nadal fan, KbN, since he is probably tired and is taking the tennis a little too serious   

I just had a closer look at the photo - you really did make him (or her?) waffles.  I love it!

Sb, you know me. Abusive but friendly and not selfish

Cool pic. KBN is definitely hard-core Nadal...lol.
Is it Amritia/Red in turbo mode?

More of a nuclear mode. I envy his/her dedication.

Jahu wrote:

summerblues wrote:

Jahu wrote:I made some waffles for breakfast for my favorite Nadal fan, KbN, since he is probably tired and is taking the tennis a little too serious   

I just had a closer look at the photo - you really did make him (or her?) waffles.  I love it!

Sb, you know me. Abusive but friendly and not selfish

Can you make one for SoCal, too? Pretty please.

LF, behave   

Next weekend, as today is fruit and veg day   

H2Hs are fraught with problems. It is road oft-travelled, but not very useful. There are many which turn the H2H mystery upside down, like Soderling, Dodig, Davydenko, Garcia-Lopez etc.

Kyrgios played well against Gasquet, better than against Veseley. Gasquet's Bo5 failures are very well known with a 5/11 W/L in Bo5 (http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showpost.php?p=4887228&postcount=112) .

Some young promise dies on the vine, like Harrison, Broady, Golding, Tomic, but other thrives, like Dimitrov, Thiem, Kyrgios... Let us wait till Tuesday to see what happens.

Jahu wrote:LF, behave   

Next weekend, as today is fruit and veg day   

Ghormeh Sabzi, Kuku and Vegetable Khoresh should do nicely.

Is that socal's menu, persian?

My menu today: tomato soup, oven roasted potatoes with herbs and spices, and apple, walnut and raisins cake

laverfan wrote:H2Hs are fraught with problems. It is road oft-travelled, but not very useful. There are many which turn the H2H mystery upside down, like Soderling, Dodig, Davydenko, Garcia-Lopez etc.

Kyrgios played well against Gasquet, better than against Veseley. Gasquet's Bo5 failures are very well known with a 5/11 W/L in Bo5 (http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showpost.php?p=4887228&postcount=112) .

Some young promise dies on the vine, like Harrison, Broady, Golding, Tomic, but other thrives, like Dimitrov, Thiem, Kyrgios... Let us wait till Tuesday to see what happens.

If Kyrgios beats Nadal (in my opinion) it will be a far far bigger shocker than his loss against Rosol for a few reasons. Kyrgios age and inexperience being one and it coming in the second week of a slam when Nadal is generally seen to up his levels being another.

I think you are late for today anyway - with Ramadan just having begun and sunrise in Irvine in around 40 minutes it would be very tight at best.

Then again, not sure if he keeps strictly Halal, seeing as he seems to have some familiarity with spirits.

laverfan wrote:H2Hs are fraught with problems. It is road oft-travelled, but not very useful. There are many which turn the H2H mystery upside down, like Soderling, Dodig, Davydenko, Garcia-Lopez etc.

Kyrgios played well against Gasquet, better than against Veseley. Gasquet's Bo5 failures are very well known with a 5/11 W/L in Bo5 (http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showpost.php?p=4887228&postcount=112) .

Some young promise dies on the vine, like Harrison, Broady, Golding, Tomic, but other thrives, like Dimitrov, Thiem, Kyrgios... Let us wait till Tuesday to see what happens.

I do hope Kyrgios can trouble Nadal, but essentially we are hoping for a Federer/Sampras watershed moment.

I just can't see it myself.

CC, I do not agree with that. Kyrgios is far more talented than Rosol - he is a potential future #1 (may or may not happen, but Rosol was never more than maybe potential future top 20) and he has the kind of game that could trouble Nadal.

KbN summed it up quite well (though I would not call him Rosol-lite, as that again suggests Rosol's superiority).

I just think that his inexperience combined with what I expect to be fully focused Rafa will likely make it one-sided, but if he someone won, the shock would not be as big as when Rosol did it in 2012.

Sb, drinking alcohol is Haram.

Non halal meat, is kind of acceptable if you say the right words before eating it.

summerblues wrote:CC, I do not agree with that.  Kyrgios is far more talented than Rosol - he is a potential future #1 (may or may not happen, but Rosol was never more than maybe potential future top 20) and he has the kind of game that could trouble Nadal.

KbN summed it up quite well (though I would not call him Rosol-lite, as that again suggests Rosol's superiority).

I just think that his inexperience combined with what I expect to be fully focused Rafa will likely make it one-sided, but if he someone won, the shock would not be as big as when Rosol did it in 2012.

Kyrgios is ostensibly a junior and I or anyone cannot go saying he is a potential No.1 at this stage as it is far too early to say. Is he more talented than Rosol? Perhaps but we will have to wait and see. Rafa losing against a player still really on the challenger tour in the SECOND week of a slam would be a bigger shock in my opinion.

I am looking forward to a competitive match, nothing more, nothing less, 3 or 5 sets. This is more to see where Kyrgios is, rather than to see where Nadal is.

I agree with SB, Kyrgios and Rosol have very little in common, except both play Tennis. Kyrgios reminds me  of Murray when he first showed up on the scene. He may not live up to such lofty promises though.

@LK... Unlikely to be watershed moment this year for Nadal. I do fear for Djokovic though. The aimless wanderings have me worried for his career after a brilliant 2011. He may never get there again, a la McEnroe 1984, but can stay steady.

Jahu wrote:Sb, drinking alcohol is Haram.

Non halal meat, is kind of acceptable if you say the right words before eating it.

Travelling and Journeys are always handy, too. BTW, your menu is excellent. (Yes the dishes are Persian/Iranian).

LF I think Djokovic could play himself into the tournament. He is winning still not at his best. Maybe a sterner test will bring the best out of him

CaledonianCraig wrote:Kyrgios is ostensibly a junior and I or anyone cannot go saying he is a potential No.1 at this stage as it is far too early to say. Is he more talented than Rosol? Perhaps but we will have to wait and see. Rafa losing against a player still really on the challenger tour in the SECOND week of a slam would be a bigger shock in my opinion.

Rosol was almost 26 the first time he entered top 100.  He was exactly at #100 when he played Rafa (and dropped to #103 in the post-Wimbledon rankings).  Win or lose on Tuesday, Kyrgios will be in top 100 after Wimbledon, and he will be the only teenager there.

He may or may not fulfill his promise but there is no question who between the two has more potential.  Nobody knew Rosol's name before his memorable win.  Plenty of people have been watching Kyrgios's progress.

I am not arguing with you sb just saying I'd be far more surprised given Kyrgios has yet to cement himself on the full tour. I don't think Rosol is anything particularly special at all but he had the balls to stand up to Rafa and not allow himself to be bullied/intimidated when he beat him and he really got under Rafa's skin. Does Kyrgios have that in him?

Nadal has never lost a set in all three of his first matches in a Major before, and made it to the fourth round.

Below you'll see that it means nothing whatsoever - it's only a question of long, hard points/matches, that may tire him out along the way. Below, years and Majors in which he lost 1, 2, 3 or 4 sets in 1st three matches.

** - Won Event, * - R/Up Event

Majors - no sets lost in first three rounds ( 7 wins, 4 Rup):
Aussie - 2008, 2009**, 2011, 2012*, 2014*,
French Open - 2005**, 2007**, 2008**, 2009, 2010**, 2012**,
Wimbledon 2011*,
US Open - 2008, 2010**, 2011*, 2013**,

1 set lost in first three rounds (2 wins, 0 R/up):
Aussie - 2007 (1 in 2nd), 2010 (1 in 3rd),
French Open - 2006** (1 in 3rd),
Wimbledon - 2008** (1 in 2nd),
US Open - 2006 (1 in 2nd), 2007 (1 in 1st), 2009 (1 in 2nd),

2 sets lost in first three rounds (2 wins, 2 R/up):
French - 2011** (2 in 1st), 2013** (1 in 1st & 2nd),
Wimbledon - 2006* (2 in 2nd), 2007* (2 in 3rd)

4 sets lost in first three rounds:
Wimbledon - 2010** (4, 2 in 2nd & 3rd)

So no real "pattern" here at all - random - 1st three matches really don't hold any "mysteries," and as Pat Cash says, Majors are really 3 smaller "stages:"
1st stage - first two matches
2nd stage - getting into 2nd week
3rd - the 2nd week

We all know that you can't "win" a Major in the 1st week, only "lose" it.

Once the "2nd week" players are "set," it's then a matter of who plays the bigger points better, amongst similarly skilled players, even more so on grass, it can be a matter of a point here, and a point there, especially in the matter of tiebreaks.

Now it's to see who of the remaining "3rd round" participants come through, and it's "game on" for the last 16...but with the first 3 matches played, the "contenders" will know what's working well, what still needs some work, and match those up with whomever they find themselves across from, over the net.

tomorrow we will have only 8 players left. and it will be a good time to set new favouritsm

but for now, djokovic and murray seem like the trongest ones

dont see cilic or dimitrov being able to avoid a rematch of last years final

in the bottom half, I imagine federer will pass with ease. no idea what to expect from wawrinka and raonic. and my total ignorance about kyrgios makes me be caoutious on that one

have to admitt that despite I was trying not to get too excited, I was hoping for nadal to get to the final.

I am a bit sad today.

naxroy wrote:have to admitt that despite I was trying not to get too excited, I was hoping for nadal to get to the final.

I am a bit sad today.

Chin up.

I'd say that warning signs were there in the first three rounds that Rafa was not bullet-proof. He dropped sets in all of those matches when in days of old (say pre-2011 on grass) he would have won those matches in straight sets.

naxroy wrote:have to admitt that despite I was trying not to get too excited, I was hoping for nadal to get to the final.

I am a bit sad today.

Makes to of us naroy though I was half expecting it... hey ho  

Just give me a WTF, that's all I want

Or my dream of Fed and Rafa retiring on the same day on 17 or 18 slams each then doing a last season as a doubles pair, but the first is feasible

naxroy wrote:have to admitt that despite I was trying not to get too excited, I was hoping for nadal to get to the final.

I am a bit sad today.

Hey Naxroy nothing to be sad, be happy for Tennis that a young sensation arrived and he served like a demon to beat your guy, a stat for you, untill the first set tiebreaker Nick had 100% points won in the 1st set, can you point me one player who had such a stat against Rafa in his entire career?

It would have been sad had Nick lost a match in which he was the boss.

Last but not least, its gives the old man some hope to make his 18th , don't you think he deserves 8th Wimbledon title? atleast don't you think he can dream of 8th Wimbledon title? Stan might just quash that hope however and a very big danger lurking still for the old man in quarters.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

naxroy wrote:have to admitt that despite I was trying not to get too excited, I was hoping for nadal to get to the final.

I am a bit sad today.

Chin up.

I'd say that warning signs were there in the first three rounds that Rafa was not bullet-proof. He dropped sets in all of those matches when in days of old (say pre-2011 on grass) he would have won those matches in straight sets.

That was imo because he had the previous two years haunting him when he went on court... he was VERY NERVOUS it affected his game and that was no more apparant than when he was so delighted he had actually got through to the second  week. He knew as his fans did that everyone thought he would go out to Rosol and the underdogs... he didnt only to be met by the biggest "no name" threat of all... I didnt think that was the warning signs... playing at Wimbledon full stop no matter who he played was the obstacle that Rafa had to overcome... no such warning signs at the FO was there ??

Haddie-nuff wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

naxroy wrote:have to admitt that despite I was trying not to get too excited, I was hoping for nadal to get to the final.

I am a bit sad today.

Chin up.

I'd say that warning signs were there in the first three rounds that Rafa was not bullet-proof. He dropped sets in all of those matches when in days of old (say pre-2011 on grass) he would have won those matches in straight sets.

That was imo because he had the previous two years haunting him when he went on court... he was VERY NERVOUS it affected his game and that was no more apparant than when he was so delighted he had actually got through to the second  week. He knew as his fans did that everyone thought he would go out to Rosol and the underdogs... he didnt only to be met by the biggest "no name" threat of all... I didnt think that was the warning signs... playing at Wimbledon full stop no matter who he played was the obstacle that Rafa had to overcome... no such warning signs at the FO was there ??

Yes I see where you are coming from. Surely, though this loss will not help with mental healing on grass and setsa him back for future tilts at Wimbledon?

CC I wouldn't argue with that Im not sure Rafa is "built" for grass coming so soon after the FO I dont think he has the legs for it imo .. no joke intended

nadal is good at reseting his mind. so he will come back and most probably will be competitive in the USA tour.

in perspective, the worst he has played this season has been on clay prior to roland garros.

Does this mean we won't see HE until RG 2015??

well, impossible to understand that from my post.

I meant the poster HE.

hehehe sorry

kneel_before_nadal wrote:I've already locked Nadal in for his 3rd Wimbledon trophy. Like I said before Wimbledon began, if Nadal reaches the 2nd week the title is his.

Where is KbN?  Did he (or she?) get kicked out or did he go on his own?  He went quiet even before the Kyrgios match.

summerblues wrote:

kneel_before_nadal wrote:I've already locked Nadal in for his 3rd Wimbledon trophy. Like I said before Wimbledon began, if Nadal reaches the 2nd week the title is his.

Where is KbN?  Did he (or she?) get kicked out or did he go on his own?  He went quiet even before the Kyrgios match.

Now your adding salt to somebodies wound   

invisiblecoolers wrote:

summerblues wrote:

kneel_before_nadal wrote:I've already locked Nadal in for his 3rd Wimbledon trophy. Like I said before Wimbledon began, if Nadal reaches the 2nd week the title is his.

Where is KbN?  Did he (or she?) get kicked out or did he go on his own?  He went quiet even before the Kyrgios match.

Now your adding salt to somebodies wound   

That's why it is never good to be overconfident! I wondered where KBN was myself!

FedsFan wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:

summerblues wrote:

kneel_before_nadal wrote:I've already locked Nadal in for his 3rd Wimbledon trophy. Like I said before Wimbledon began, if Nadal reaches the 2nd week the title is his.

Where is KbN?  Did he (or she?) get kicked out or did he go on his own?  He went quiet even before the Kyrgios match.

Now your adding salt to somebodies wound   

That's why it is never good to be overconfident! I wondered where KBN was myself!

Oh Minions I have already told you, Amritia will magically reappear as a new poster once Rafa wins something significant again.

It has always been thus.

  

emancipator

Still he/she need not worry. Nadal is in his HC prime according to him/her

Good to see the cheating capybara out again.

I'm fairly sure kneel_before_nadal wasn't Amritia. Amritia still reads the tennis section, so maybe could post to confirm.

Not sure why kbn disappeared a couple of days ago.