Is Nadal Now The Wimbledon Favorite?

First topic message reminder :

Last year Nadal felt unable to compete at Wimbledon but this year he's feeling a little better

"I want to try to play well again in Wimbledon," he said. "I'm healthy. That's the most important thing."

"I hope my knee will have the positive feeling on grass, because I feel my knee is better than last year on the rest of the surfaces,"

"Grass always was a little bit harder for me after the injury. Last year I tried, but I was not ready to compete at Wimbledon.

"Let's see how my feelings are there this year, but it's a very important tournament."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/27757048

Is Nadal now the favorite to add to his Wimbledon trophy collection? Nadal always has to win Wimbledon the tricky way as part of a channel slam but despite this I reckon he is now the favorite  

kingraf wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:Amazing to think that but for injury before the final in Oz Rafa would be going for a non calendar grand slam at Wimbledon. I think I would make him 2nd favourite behind Murray with Fed and Djoko just behind in that order.

Because if Rafa had been fit Stan would definitely, 100% certain, have lost?

Hard to think in absolutes, but I think it would have gone a bit like Sunday's final, if I'm honest.

And I reckon if Murray had been fit he would have won the USO & AO
Not 100% certain, though

What is Nadals seeding for Wimbledon? He's only 170 points ahead of Novak, and Novak has a Wimbledon F, and SF as well as an Olympic SF, over the last two years, I'd think he leapfrogs Nadal, but is anyone else really close enough?

JuliusHMarx wrote:

kingraf wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:Amazing to think that but for injury before the final in Oz Rafa would be going for a non calendar grand slam at Wimbledon. I think I would make him 2nd favourite behind Murray with Fed and Djoko just behind in that order.

Because if Rafa had been fit Stan would definitely, 100% certain, have lost?

Hard to think in absolutes, but I think it would have gone a bit like Sunday's final, if I'm honest.

And I reckon if Murray had been fit he would have won the USO & AO
Not 100% certain, though

in the australian open final wawrinka was playing great... I think he would have won even if nadal wasnt injured, but it would have been harder for sure.

Rafa has to restore some pride after his last 2 humiliations (Rosol was hard to play against, Darcis was actually not as good as the scoreline suggested) and has had no bother at all with the knees. Maybe he has accepted he's not good enough on grass, and will graciously save proper grass court tennis to good players like Dolgopolov and Rosol

kingraf wrote:What is Nadals seeding for Wimbledon? He's only 170 points ahead of Novak, and Novak has a Wimbledon F, and SF as well as an Olympic SF, over the last two years, I'd think he leapfrogs Nadal, but is anyone else really close enough?

Murray is too far behind to get 2nd seed - he will be 3rd seed.

mthierry wrote: They may be nothing more than freak anomalies

Isn't that a contradiction? I'd call it a freak anomaly if it only happened once but it hasn't it has happened three times now to him at Wimbledon. That is NOT freak anomalies.

anyway, grass season can give rafa some air in the fight for nuber 1 ranking.
didnt really expect him to retain it for longer than april, but djokovic´s wrist and the french title has give nadal the chance to dream for a whole year as number 1. for that he would have to do better than nole in this next month.

after that, second half of the season splits in two different stages:
american tour in which nadal defendes 4000 points for noles only 1740
then comes the fall season with nole defending 4000 points (including WTF) for nadal´s 2020

in total from now on nole defends 6940 and rafa 6030

naxroy wrote:in total from now on nole defends 6940 and rafa 6030

Nole's baby arrives, I would guess, sometime in October or November.

A withdrawal and/or a couple of distracted tournaments would seem very likely in that period.

Dustin Brown has done a hammering on the favourite.

OP edit this article and make Dustin the favourite please    welcome back Tennis  

Nadal is not dumb. He knows his body is failing and can't play 100% every GS/Master.

So he will do a quick Halle style Wimbledon apperance, maybe up to round 2, if the round 1 opponent gives up, and go home and relax for HC season.

Grass is history for him.

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Dustin Brown has done a hammering on the favourite.

OP edit this article and make Dustin the favourite please    welcome back Tennis  

This suits you not!

skyeman, who are you btw? And how did you make 4500 posts in this forum without me ever seeing you before this FO on tennis section?

Introduce your self man, (fake age), gender, shoe size and other obligatory infos.

Who is your favorite tennis player and why do you not like Djoko as well?   

Welcome to the club   

Jahu wrote:skyeman, who are you btw? And how did you make 4500 posts in this forum without me ever seeing you before this FO on tennis section?

Introduce your self man, (fake age), gender, shoe size and other obligatory infos.

Who is your favorite tennis player and why do you not like Djoko as well?   

Welcome to the club   

  Been on the tennis many times. Normally with negative comments though. Normally about Socal.

A young 45, small feet. Just love good tennis and thank you for the welcome.

Not as knowledgeable as many here on tennis, but i do love the sport.

Keep it up

well, with todays performance I think he will suffer a lot in the fist week at wimbledon

Nadal is the favourite if he makes it into the second week.

Who's gonna stop him at that point? The courts are virtual clay courts by that point.

Federer? Unlikely - too much baggage + just not good enough anymore
Djokovic? He's reverted back to being a mental midget on the biggest stage. The break of serve to lose the FO was so predictable, as was the double fault.
Murray? Nadal is always favourite against Murray at a slam.
A young gun in the second week? Nah, none of them are special.

So in summary, IF Rafa gets through to the second week, when the courts become even slower and higher bouncing, then I would make him a reasonably warm favourite.

If, however, it rains all week so conditions remain slicker then I would bump up Murray and Federer's chances.

  

emancipator

I am going to repeat myself:

last 2 years appearances, plus what happened in halle tell us that he cannot be considered favourite
the risk of being eliminated in the first 4 rounds is very high.

but of ourse, he is number 1, he has made the last 3 slam finals and once upon a time, he made 5 finals in wimbledon, so its also risky to assure an early exit.

in conclusion, it is a very unpredictable situation. if draw is nice with him for first 2 rounds, then he has a chance in my mind.

but to be honest there are too many names that come to mind that can take nadal out of the tournament

The bad news for Nadal is that Darcis came through his first qualifying match for Wimbledon yesterday

well, draw has been all but nice to nadal, but at least he has been able to pass the first round, agaisnt a non easy opponent

nadal was nervous today and will still be nervous against rosol (destiny), but if he gets that win too, then it should be easier in third round.
4th round will again be hard, but thats looking too way ahead at this moment

It was a tough First Round draw but he got better as the match went on. Obviously, the further he goes the bigger threat he will become.

CaledonianCraig wrote:It was a tough First Round draw but he got better as the match went on. Obviously, the further he goes the bigger threat he will become.

But he has to get past his Wimbledon 2012 arch-nemesis Lukas Rosol in the second round!

It's amusing, isn't it? Djokovic has been favourite to win every single Slam since Wimbledon 2013. Bookies have been haemorrhaging I'd think.

Eh? Bookies want the favourite to lose. If most money wasn't going on him then he wouldn't be favourite.

emancipator wrote:Nadal is the favourite if he makes it into the second week.

Who's gonna stop him at that point? The courts are virtual clay courts by that point.

Federer? Unlikely - too much baggage + just not good enough anymore
Djokovic? He's reverted back to being a mental midget on the biggest stage. The break of serve to lose the FO was so predictable, as was the double fault.
Murray? Nadal is always favourite against Murray at a slam.
A young gun in the second week? Nah, none of them are special.

So in summary, IF Rafa gets through to the second week, when the courts become even slower and higher bouncing, then I would make him a reasonably warm favourite.

If, however, it rains all week so conditions remain slicker then I would bump up Murray and Federer's chances.

  

emancipator

Puts it all into pretty rational perspective for me.

My only caveats would be that 1. Djokovic still has the game to end his non-slam streak at some point ; Wimbledon and the AO are the most likely venues for that to happen. 2. With the passing years, Federer has become too inconsistent to sustain a high level over 7 rounds, so even slick conditions don't bump up his chances IMO.

Overall, I agree that Nadal becomes favourite if still there in week two. Which I firmly believe he will be.

not saying nadal is favourite right now, but I think he deserves more respect

after all

only 11 players in history have been to more wimbledon finals than him

Don't really understand the bookie world quite while (I know how they make their money, but not exactly how they breakdown odds)... But I think bookies only make 5% per dollar... So it's not ideal when guys who are 9/2ish keep winning, hence they shorten their odds My ex works at a casino, might actually ask her when i get back to SA...

kingraf - I'm no expert on the detail either, but you can rest assured that Born Slippy has it right when he says that bookies always want the favourite to lose, not win !

You mention casinos, and I believe the house advantage there is very low - somewhere between 2 and 3% on the most commonly-played game, ie roulette. But with the huge level of turnover, such small margins are enough to keep them in (profitable) business.

No such animal as "the favourite" its Wimbledon after all and every player has the chance of winning .. I need not remind you of what happened when Boris Becker won... Rafa stands as good a chance as anyone... he has bigger and better obstacles than Rosol to overcome to do so.(. whom incidentally he has beaten in Doha this year).. so fasten your seat belts and keep your money in your pocket. !!!! 

who are the logical favourites in a tournament like this:

1- the defending champion (in normal conditions, no injury, no disastrous last 12 months...)
2- the number one ranked player (above all if he has a good past in the surface)
3- the top players in the surface in the last couple of seasons

following these, murray, djokovic, nadal and federer can all be considered favourites in some measure

of course then you have the possible new names or big scares or even the ones you could think could cause a surprise... but those are not "logical" favourites

of course, no favourite is free of an upset at some point. and if one (like nadal) has experienced said upsets in the recent past, it is also normal that people consider that possibility

I must remember to use your "logic" when backing the favourite in the Grand National..
Who would have backed on both Nadal and Serena Williams going out in the first round last year....???  Logical favourites ???

semifinalists in 2012 and 2013:
djokovic, murray, roger, tsonga, janowicz (but he is having a bad year so not counting for me)
2014 grass champions:
roger, dimitrov, feliciano, bautista


I would also add berdych, gulbis and wawrinka

so I think thats it for me, in order of favouritsm:

murray
djokovic
federer
nadal
dimitrov
gulbis
tsonga
feliciano
berdych
wawrinka

Haddie-nuff wrote:I must remember to use your "logic" when backing the favourite in the Grand National..
Who would have backed on both Nadal and Serena Williams going out in the first round last year....???  Logical favourites ???

well, its not that I planned to debate on the "logical" word

call it what you want, my thoughts, my reasons to think about who is favourite, whatever you want.

Well you have more or less made my argument for me...   You have just about covered all of them !!! which is what I have said...it could be anyone !!!!!!

anyway, I find "logical" fits my logic, in the way that I follow a logic to choose my favourites.

and as I said, those "logical" choices, can of course represent an upset at some point, thats why it is called an upset

  logically I would have to agree to some extent but I would also suggest that logically any one of those competitors have more than a reasonable chance of winning because logically they have qualified to play and it is logical to think that there are many unforeseen events such as injury or withdrawals than can logically affect the final outcome.. so therefore as I say logically anyone could win  

Federer sounds extremely confident about his chances at this here Wimbledon. Probably the most confident he's spoken since 2012. In addition to his positive form in Halle, I think Federer will be banking on Nadal losing early ala 2012/2013. Therefore I suspect Federer will be sweating on each of Nadal's matches, now that Nadal has won the opener.

naxroy wrote:

in conclusion, it is a very unpredictable situation. if draw is nice with him for first 2 rounds, then he has a chance in my mind.

But the draw has not been kind to Nadal at all in these first 2 rounds, but that doesn't seem to be a problem.

kingraf wrote:It's amusing, isn't it? Djokovic has been favourite to win every single Slam since Wimbledon 2013. Bookies have been haemorrhaging I'd think.

And ESPN has 10 guys, 7 of them tipped Djokovic to win Roland Garros  

Cahill picks Djokovic
Drysdale picks Nadal
Evert picks Nadal
McEnroe picks Djokovic
Shriver picks Nadal
Bryant picks Djokovic
Caple picks Djokovic
Garber picks Djokovic
Tandon picks Djokovic
Wilansky picks Djokovic

I guess this means their tennis experts take the non-slams very seriously.....As Nadal has won his last 4 slam meetings with Djokovic (and the most lopsided of those was at last year's US Open, 6-1 in 4th set).

kneel_before_nadal wrote:Federer sounds extremely confident about his chances at this here Wimbledon. Probably the most confident he's spoken since 2012. In addition to his positive form in Halle, I think Federer will be banking on Nadal losing early ala 2012/2013. Therefore I suspect Federer will be sweating on each of Nadal's matches, now that Nadal has won the opener.

naxroy wrote:

in conclusion, it is a very unpredictable situation. if draw is nice with him for first 2 rounds, then he has a chance in my mind.

But the draw has not been kind to Nadal at all in these first 2 rounds, but that doesn't seem to be a problem.

.

in fact, draw is quite dangerous for nadal. in fact he survived round 1. but danger zone is not yet over. rosol next

Yeah I'm not buying Rosol. Rosol needed to play THE MATCH OF HIS LIFE to beat Nadal in 2012. He needed 20 winners (and just 2 unforced errors) in the 5th set to win 6-4. He needed the roof closed too (and a 30 minute delay after Nadal had won the 4th set 6-2). Does lightening strike the same player twice? I don't think so. I would have been more concerned about Paire.

Plus Nadal is very good at these situations. And that is why Nadal has such consistent h2h records.
Soderling beat Nadal at 2009 Roland Garros.
Nadal beat Soderling at 2010 Roland Garros.
Nadal beat Soderling at 2010 Wimbledon.
Nadal beat Soderling at 2011 Roland Garros.

But just for fun I hope Rosol pushes Nadal to 4 or 5 sets (and gives Nadal some valuable practice for later rounds). Due their history and hype, will be a fun and dramatic match if Rosol can present a challenge of any kind. It will be anticlimactic otherwise. And I desperately wanted Rosol to beat Paire so we could have an exciting Round 2 (even if its only exciting because of the hype).

kneel_before_nadal wrote:Yeah I'm not buying Rosol. Rosol needed to play THE MATCH OF HIS LIFE to beat Nadal in 2012. He needed 20 winners (and just 2 unforced errors) in the 5th set to win 6-4. He needed the roof closed too (and a 30 minute delay after Nadal had won the 4th set 6-2). Does lightening strike the same player twice? I don't think so. I would have been more concerned about Paire.

Plus Nadal is very good at these situations. And that is why Nadal has such consistent h2h records.
Soderling beat Nadal at 2009 Roland Garros.
Nadal beat Soderling at 2010 Roland Garros.
Nadal beat Soderling at 2010 Wimbledon.
Nadal beat Soderling at 2011 Roland Garros.

But just for fun I hope Rosol pushes Nadal to 4 or 5 sets (and gives Nadal some valuable practice for later rounds). Due their history and hype, will be a fun and dramatic match if Rosol can present a challenge of any kind. It will be anticlimactic otherwise. And I desperately wanted Rosol to beat Paire so we could have an exciting Round 2 (even if its only exciting because of the hype).

If Nadal can get past his 2012 Arch Nemesis Lukas Rosol, when will he meet his 2013 Arch Nemesis Steve Darcis, and will Darcis be the favourite to win that match?

naxroy wrote:

kneel_before_nadal wrote:Federer sounds extremely confident about his chances at this here Wimbledon. Probably the most confident he's spoken since 2012. In addition to his positive form in Halle, I think Federer will be banking on Nadal losing early ala 2012/2013. Therefore I suspect Federer will be sweating on each of Nadal's matches, now that Nadal has won the opener.

naxroy wrote:

in conclusion, it is a very unpredictable situation. if draw is nice with him for first 2 rounds, then he has a chance in my mind.

But the draw has not been kind to Nadal at all in these first 2 rounds, but that doesn't seem to be a problem.

.

in fact, draw is quite dangerous for nadal. in fact he survived round 1. but danger zone is not yet over. rosol next

Danger for Rosol yeah.. you dont get that lucky twice in a lifetime

If Nadal was to play anyone in the top 10 in the early rounds yes, that could potentially be a loss on the cards. A couple of wins here is enough to settle him into the tournament and once he settles in, there's very little a player can do to oust him unless he serves a double as he did yesterday on b/p down.

very ilogical from me to see gulbis as a logical possible surprise

kneel_before_nadal wrote:Yeah I'm not buying Rosol. Rosol needed to play THE MATCH OF HIS LIFE to beat Nadal in 2012. He needed 20 winners (and just 2 unforced errors) in the 5th set to win 6-4. He needed the roof closed too (and a 30 minute delay after Nadal had won the 4th set 6-2). Does lightening strike the same player twice? I don't think so. I would have been more concerned about Paire.

Plus Nadal is very good at these situations. And that is why Nadal has such consistent h2h records.
Soderling beat Nadal at 2009 Roland Garros.
Nadal beat Soderling at 2010 Roland Garros.
Nadal beat Soderling at 2010 Wimbledon.
Nadal beat Soderling at 2011 Roland Garros.

But just for fun I hope Rosol pushes Nadal to 4 or 5 sets (and gives Nadal some valuable practice for later rounds). Due their history and hype, will be a fun and dramatic match if Rosol can present a challenge of any kind. It will be anticlimactic otherwise. And I desperately wanted Rosol to beat Paire so we could have an exciting Round 2 (even if its only exciting because of the hype).

You're talking about the confident grass playing Nadal that we saw from 2007 to 2011. Not the one lacking in confidence now. The other big difference is that he's now seen as vulnerable by all those playing him. That's a massive psychological swing, compared to say him on Clay

If Nadal wins this then either it's a very cold Wimbledon or Novak and / or Andy don't show up. It is of course entirely feasible that an average Nadal could win this event, simply because he's far better at been average than Nole or Murray

Even if Murray played Nadal tomorrow, Nadal would have the edge. Just as Nadal would have the edge versus Djokovic/Federer if they played tomorrow. Nadal showed enough comfort on grass vs Klizan. His mental edge at the slams versus Murray/Djokovic/Federer would do the rest. Especially versus Federer. A lot has changed since 2008 (when Nadal had only just begun to breakthrough at the slams versus Federer away from Roland Garros). If Nadal played Federer 7 times this fortnight, Nadal would win all 7.

kingraf wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:Amazing to think that but for injury before the final in Oz Rafa would be going for a non calendar grand slam at Wimbledon. I think I would make him 2nd favourite behind Murray with Fed and Djoko just behind in that order.

Because if Rafa had been fit Stan would definitely, 100% certain, have lost?

Hard to think in absolutes, but I think it would have gone a bit like Sunday's final, if I'm honest.

You mean the Sunday's finale of Rome?

kneel_before_nadal wrote:Even if Murray played Nadal tomorrow, Nadal would have the edge. Just as Nadal would have the edge versus Djokovic/Federer if they played tomorrow. Nadal showed enough comfort on grass vs Klizan. His mental edge at the slams versus Murray/Djokovic/Federer would do the rest. Especially versus Federer. A lot has changed since 2008 (when Nadal had only just begun to breakthrough at the slams versus Federer away from Roland Garros). If Nadal played Federer 7 times this fortnight, Nadal would win all 7.

I kneed before your Nadal worship.

Ask any of his opposition whether they would prefer to play Rafa over three sets or five
  I would not suggest that Nadal will win Wimbledon but I would never put money against him over five sets no matter what his current form is... His chances are as good if not better than most

The telltale sign for Nadal at Wimbledon this year came early. Before the event started, his practices on grass were showing signs of yesteryear. For the first time since 2011, he was able to go full out in practice. Apparently, his practice today was as good. So he's at least able to put the work into his game. The other good sign for him was the recovery from each of his falls during rallies yesterday. He not only recovered to get back into the rally, he won the point both times. Those two points pretty much dispelled any issues with the knee or the back. Seems fair to say the pressure he felt yesterday was to avoid another early exit, out of embarrassment. Taking on #51 as a First Rounder isn't the easiest ask anyway. It seems fair to say that what hurt him most at Wimbledon the last two years was the cumulative effect of his scorched earth run through all of the clay events in the spring, winning most of them, or at least a Finalist. At 22, 23 - that stuff is easier for your body to take. But at 26, 27? The toll comes for payment. This year, he didn't expend quite as much energy physically by losing early in MC and Barcelona - he only played a couple of matches in each place. And he therefore got a break mentally too, from having to deal with the pressure of keeping up that scorched earth winning rampage. That left him with some reserves. he rolled through RG losing only two sets. And he's still got some of the reserves left apparently for Wimbledon. How much in reserve we'll see. His next match with Rosol won't be as dire as it seems, thanks to Nadal's dismissal of Rosol already this year, in Doha.

But "favorite" for the event? The goal for Nadal really was to get to Week 2. That would indicate he's at least not injury hampered, and that he was starting to find his grass game again. The same game that got him to 5 Finals here. So if in fact Nadal makes the 2nd week, his chances to win this whole thing skyrocket to at least the same level as Federer, Murray and Djokovic.

Haddie-nuff wrote:Ask any of his opposition whether they would prefer to play Rafa over three sets or five
  I would not suggest that Nadal will win Wimbledon but I would never put money against him over five sets no matter what his current form is... His chances are as good if not better than most

I agree, Nadal just had to get his teeth into this tournament. Its the only tournament that has given him week one worries. He looks very invested this year. The more points he gains at Wimbledon, far easier it will be to win his FOURTH year-ending #1. I'm confident he'll defend the US Open, but there is chance he'll lose in the final of Canada or Cincy. So best to increase the lead at Wimbledon. Either way I don't like Djokovic's chance of defending all those indoor titles later this year, given that he's struggling so heavily versus Federer this year.

kneel_before_nadal wrote:I'm confident he'll defend the US Open

Despite never having defended any title off clay during the course of his career? On what is that confidence based? The overall standard of tennis on the tour not being what it was?