PGA Tour: US Open at the new-look Pinehurst No.2: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

1).No idea what to expect this week with the US Open to be held for the third time in 15 years (almost unprecedented repeat visits) at Donald Ross's masterpiece, Pinehurst No.2. Since we last saw it, Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore have laid waste to the whole place, and even the most nerdy architecturally gurus don't quite seem to know what to make of it. A Beauty or a Beast? Or possibly both.
 
2).Previous form may or may not have to be thrown out the window, we just don't know, but a summary of the accumulated wisdom of media punditry suggests length is imperative, a high ball-flight preferable and a delicate touch around the greens a necessity. If only these things were that easy. Let's look first of all at what little previous course form there is.
 
3).1999 US Open:
Mickelson famously beaten into second place by a 15 - 20 foot par putt on the last from William Payne Stewart. Other four-round finishes from guys golfing it this week include:
5th: Stricker
7th: Maggert
10th: Darren Clarke
15th: Leonard
17th: Furyk
23rd: Jimenez
32nd: Cink
46th: Allenby
 
4).2005 US Open:
Michael Campbell wins and goes on to have a wonderful year, only to disappear as mysteriously as a Malaysian 777. A second star-crossed champion to be sure; Cambo has an exemption in to this week's tournament but, amid stories of a broken marriage, he's sitting this one out. The tournament was Goosen's to win anyway, bidding to become the only golfer since Strange to win consecutive US Opens he played in Sunday's final group only to balloom to an 81. Which was better than partner Jason Gore's 84. Other Top 40 finishers in this week's effort:
T3: Garcia
T3: Tim Clark
11th: Goose
15th: Els
23rd: Kenny Perry
T28: Ogilvy
T28: Scott
T28: Matt Every (top amateur)
T33: Cabrera
T33: Westwood
Others making the cut included Poulter, Donald, Ryan Moore, McDowell. Barlow.
 
5).2008: US Amateur:
New Zealand's Danny Lee won but only after he beat Patrick Top Five Reed in the semi-final.
Others who progressed to Match Play included:
3rd Round: Fowler
2nd Round: Horschel
1st Round: Scott Langley
 
6).Not much to go on then. In addition to the above, Phil spent a week there at a golf camp as a 13-year-old and certainly seems to have an affinity for the place. He's also logged the most number of US Open appearances in the field, as this will be his 24th, with his (in?)famous six runner-up finishes. The leading five veterans are, including 2014:
24: Phil
22: Ernie
20: Furyk
19: Cink
19: Stricker
 
7).There's been a lot of attention in the US media this month about Payne Stewart:
Blow-by-blow accounts of his win with equal billing to Mrs Phil's imminent childbirth.
Hour-by-hour accounts of the tragic plane crash and untimely death.
A compelling, but ultimately unsatisfying bio/documentary on the Golf Channel which pretty much made his Aussie wife Tracey the real star - and perhaps deservedly so by many accounts given the brat (you've got a long way to go Top Five) the young Payne came across as.
And out-of-this-world hyperbole from Sports Illustrated, who should know better:
"In the post-Nicklaus era no (golfing) figure was more compelling than Payne Stewart."
In Missouri, maybe. Dear oh dear.
 
But what a beautiful golfswing he had; he took his game around the world, won in Japan and Holland, and ultimately had a decent Ryder Cup record together with three (squeaky?) Major wins. One always feels the best of Payne Stewart, the man at least, was still to come.
 
8).Who's going to win then?
It's been roasting this week, 97F today and will be broiling all week long, probably with storms. A course that plays firm and fast will bring the "navigators" in to play, but with a yardage from the tips of close to 7,600 yards, length will matter, all the more so if storms bring flooding rains.
I would think the two obvious favourites would be Mickelson and Bubba, though whether either can focus fully for 72 scorching holes must be questionable. But: You gotta like their length and improvisational skills. And there'll be lots of long putts on the crowned Donald Ross greens, and no-one avoids the 3-putt like Bubba.
 
9).I'd say three fancied players and three outsiders worth considering might be:
Watson at 18/1, Jason Day at 28/1, Kaymer at 40/1.
Webb Simpson at 45/1, Poulter at 66/1, Horschel at 80's.
For various reasons I'd love to see Phil or Rory or Sergio prove me wrong, but they're all three like unpredictable treats in Forrest Gump's box of chocolates the way their form currently is.
 
10).Once again the USGA sits around a table sniggering at each other as they concoct amusing groupings and this year is no exception, especially the fatboys threesome of De Jonge, Stadler and Shane Lowry. I'd be royally p1ssed off if I was one of them, but I suppose they had it coming.
Then there's the curious case of one-time winners Spieth, Matsuyama and Fowler.
 
Just think, not so long ago a US Amateur Champ turned pro and made the John Deere Classic the first win (as Jordan Spieth would do a dozen years later) of what would surely be a glittering career. Perhaps a featured US Open tee-time.
But it didn't work out quite like that for David Gossett, and my favourite story so far this week is of his seemingly miraculous (considering last year's web.com earnings were $10K) qualification for this week inspired by the very same 45-year veteran caddie (Johnny Miller, Lehman, you name it), Andy Martinez, who carried Gossett's bag to victory fifteen years ago in the "Amateur" at Pebble Beach.
Not saying that Spieth or Hideki or one-trickie Rickie will turn out like David Gossett. But his story is what "Opens" are made of, for the first two days anyway.

super_realist wrote:

incontinentia wrote:

super_realist wrote:Slim Shane struggling. Bet he wished he'd lost another 18 pounds now.

He's +3 which is well in it, get a clue! And if you think Bubba has no course management, well that's one of the dumbest things I've heard in quite a while.

He's 8 (eight) shots adrift. That's like being 3-0 down at half time.  This isn't Escape To Victory, and I can't see Lowry doing an OHK from the half way line can you?

8 from 1st place but I think key is to anyone who is 3/4 over is to think you are only 5/6 shots away from 2nd place!

8 shots after day 1 of a US Open is nothing really. Did McIlroy not win a tournament (not a major admittedly) from being ten shots back i.e. on the cut line after day 2. Infact didn't Lawrie come from 10 back on the final day when he won at Carnoustie.

Having said that, Kaymer's looking solid and knows pressure. McDowell is also developing a good US Open record. Definitely a course for confident putters, looking forward to a great weekend.

s_r, be fair to Slim Shane. He's still in it?
PS. Does the 10-shot rule apply when determining the cut?

pedro wrote:s_r, be fair to Slim Shane. He's still in it?
PS. Does the 10-shot rule apply when determining the cut?

In a normal tournament I might concur, in a US Open where scoring is notoriously difficult I would say not so much. Kaymer's round was exceptional by US Open standards.

Not so slim De Jonge doing well for my ironic picks and I heard the commentators mention Lowry's group as the heavyweight group.    

Anyone see Fowler yesterday in his plus fours? What a bell end.

Thought wearing the plus fours was something he got away with, considering the venue and history of the place.

Was surprised to see -5 winning. Will the USGA be pleased with that, or will they throw in some dodgy pin positions today to make it much harder today?

-5 was a surprise for an afternoon tee time.

Some of the morning players (Stenson et al) were surprised about the soft conditions on the front 9, making it easier than expected. But the course dried up during the day making it increasingly more difficult. That's what players said at least.

Everyone over par has to go to level today to get back in it again; the top 10 will probably be -1/-2 after today with a leader around Kaymer's mark.

If conditions are soft this morning Kaymer may go lower.

I see quite a few players saying there was a storm last night so the greens will be soft this morning. Very surprised - 5 is leading and the USGA wont like that but not sure what they can do if it rained last night. Pins will be in some nasty spots I suppose.

If it wasn't the US open, everyone could have maybe went home. Kaymer is a quality player and an excellent front runner as he has shown many times. Anything under par today from Kaymer is going to put a lot of players over par at the moment and playing this afternoon out of the tournament IMO.

I'm pretty sure the pins are pre-determined before the round, rather than decided on the day.

Weather:
Looks like there was rain last night, but not a deluge. They're slowly reducing the likelihood of storms in the forecast, so would expect the course to firm up. Sounds like they had watered it Wednesday night. Warm (high 80's) and steamy again today and thru the weekend.

Cut:
Top 60's and ties. 10-shot rule no longer applies.

Last word:
"The golf course is better than me right now." The Gospel according to St.Bubba. And I thought he'd love the place.

kwinigolfer wrote:Weather:
Looks like there was rain last night, but not a deluge. They're slowly reducing the likelihood of storms in the forecast, so would expect the course to firm up. Sounds like they had watered it Wednesday night. Warm (high 80's) and steamy again today and thru the weekend.

Cut:
Top 60's and ties. 10-shot rule no longer applies.

Last word:
"The golf course is better than me right now." The Gospel according to St.Bubba. And I thought he'd love the place.

I'm pretty sure I saw on TV they were watering areas mid round yesterday - Colin "When we won the Ryder Cup" Montgomerie said that it wasn't really the done thing and it was a bit unfair.

The pins are not pre-determined. The USGA will have a variety of pin positions and will use whichever ones they want to "protect the integrity" of their competition. They will, of course, take weather & ground conditions into account.
Similarly, the length of the course can be varied by an enormous margin. On paper it is 7,568 yards but Butch Harmon reckoned it was actually about 7,200 yards yesterday.

Fair enough.

Consensus seems to be that they'll allow the course to be "scorable" on days 1 and 2 just to get 156 players around. Tougher for the weekend.

Bob,
First I've heard of watering during yesterday's play - didn't see any sign of it, and not sure why it would have been necessary.

(Wouldn't have been the first time though, as Montgomerie surely knows.)

Cut-line currently at +2 with 68 golfers +2 or better.
What do you reckon it will climb to?
Can't see it getting beyond +4 at the highest, which means sub-par rounds or go home for Bubba, Blixt, Westwood and Lukey.

McLaren wrote:

today's pin positions:

Nice one Mac. Some of those look really tricky (17 for example)

I've played TOC on Final Day tour pins, it wasn't that hard, that looks a different kettle of fish though on already difficult greens, not the flat football pitches of TOC

Having said all of which (and thanks Mac) scoring seems better this morning than on Thursday, so conditions are presumably pretty benign.

Kaymer could run away with this. 4 ahead now

I'd say Kaymer might have a very good chance if he was just to par his final 50 holes.
 
Cut-line just about to go to +3.

Fran Quinn?

beninho wrote:Fran Quinn?

Medicine Woman

Kaymer is quality... That's half the field got no chance and they aint even teed off this afternoon.

He is doing franquinn good to be in second place....


Kaymer is good, but you cant rite off all the big guns, remember Kaymer did stumble his way in at the Players. He won but did not make it easy for himself. Has the potential to blow up id say.

beninho wrote:He is doing franquinn good to be in second place....


Kaymer is good, but you cant rite off all the big guns, remember Kaymer did stumble his way in at the Players. He won but did not make it easy for himself. Has the potential to blow up id say.

Was that due to the pressure or the weather break. Plus that win at the Players has probably stood him in good stead.

Luke Donald doing his recovery act after a stinker first round, he seems to do that every year at the majors. Like Rory and his horrific second rounds, followed by good weekends.

Real stinkers this morning from Donaldson (+6 after 8) and Schwartzel (+8 after 10).

Fran Quinn has played in four US Opens . . . . . . but none since 1996!

kwinigolfer wrote:I'd say Kaymer might have a very good chance if he was just to par his final 50 holes.
 
Cut-line just about to go to +3.

Kaymer has probably reached or even surpassed what the winning score relative to par will be. But the list who have achieved that on day 2 of a major must be vast. He is certainly posed with a difficult quandary in terms of his strategy from now on.

True enough Mac, I followed Gil Morgan on Day 3 of the 1992 US Open at Pebble. Can you say "meltdown"?
Difference is though, that in Dr.Gil's case, other guys came after him; not so much so far at Pinehurst.

Kaymer is cruising along, but only 13 under par, and 8 of those yet to start today. One player so far out makes you think its all pretty easy, but it looks like its only him.

Kaymer putting a beat down on this course and the field. Shades of Tiger2K?

As a former #1 and Major Winner he should have some excellent experience to call upon as he goes into the weekend.

Looks like he'll be the second German to make today's cut . . . . . .

Poor finishes from Casey and Lowry

Some good players going home early:
Donald
Lowry (+3 over his final 3 holes)
Bubba
Schwartzel
Senden
Colsaerts
Ogilvy
De Laet
Weisberger
Donaldson
 
And Casey on the brink at +5; five over for his last five holes for +5 finish.
Edit; Snap sirb.

de Jonge on top in the fatty threesome.

I wonder whether they'll have a "fatty threesome" next week in the US Women's Open?
And what Laura Davies might have to say on the subject.

Anyone know what the story is of Mahan & Donaldson getting penalized for using each other's ball?

Dufner out as well. Cut might get to 5 over but no more (33 players of the morning group on 5 over or better)

Japanese golfers 155th and 156th - imagine Matsuyama might do better than that.

Eyetoldyouso wrote: On paper it is 7,568 yards but Butch Harmon reckoned it was actually about 7,200 yards yesterday.

I was looking at the length of the course. 8 holes which could have been par 5's some time ago. 2/507, 4/524, 5/576, 8/502, 10/617, 11/483, 12/484, 16/528. And 14/473.
I know skills and equipment have moved on, but that looks a long course to me.

Markedly more difficult in the afternoon

Great comeback from Sergio after a freaky triple bogey, one under for the day.

Cut just about to climb to +5. Paul Casey says thanks.

According to my fast calculations the winning score should be around -20...  

12-stroke win???????

Looks like The Mechanic just ran out of gas.

Still touch and go to see if 5 over makes it!

Oh, Joost, Say it ain't so!

Missed cuts by plenty of guys who need Ryder Cup points:
Mahan, Dufner, Every.
Donald, Donaldson, Gallacher, Gonzo, Jimenez, Luiten, Westwood.

Not many more chances left for them.