US Open Day 10

First topic message reminder :

Djokovic vs Murray the highlight match, I indeed thought of opening a separate thread for this match but then given the fans interest of late all as one thread would do.

Before starting the line up, I have a question thou, the crowd turnout is too little for today's match between Federer and Batista, Federer generally enjoys massive support and is a big crowd puller , he playing a 4th round night match after the long weekend day yet half the stadium was void. I also noted this behavior for several other matches, is that coz no Rafa in this tournament?
Jokes apart, this should be a big concern for USO authorities, have the hiked the prices so much? to what ever I saw the tickets were still cheaper than Toronto masters for the same round.

The trend is more or less similar in our forums too, we have had so many exciting matches yet the fans turnout and arguments has been way too little.

Back to Matches now.

1]Azarenka vs Makarova
[Azarenka's golden run might come to an end tomorrow, Makarova in awesome form and the way she dismissed Genie was superb]

2]Stan vs Kei
[Stan should start favourite given the late night long match of Kei with Raonic, but neither did Stan had it easy vs Robredo]

3]Serena vs Panetta
[One thing for sure it won't be a cake walk, Penetta could trouble Serena if the champ don't bring her A-game]

4]Nole vs Murray
[The Highlight Match, Nole starts the heavy fav but I have a feeling Murray will trump this]

We also have some good doubles action.

Djokovic churns out an awful service game and Murray's back in this...

This is an excellent return game from Djokovic. How can he go from utterly terrible to amazing in the space of one game?

Oh my god that was brilliant. However, I think he's needing tested because I've not seen eyes like that since....

Spoiler:

Murray channelling his inner Del Potro!!

Djokovic is hanging on for dear life in this set but if it goes to a TB you have to think Djokovic will win it.

SECOND SET TO MURRAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!! Andy's hit a patch so purple Barney the Dinosaur wouldn't know what to do with it.

Much better from Murray this TB.  He has been ramping up his aggression, with some good success.

This is.... Rosl-esque, Brown-esque, Monfils-esque tennis. If he played like this every match he'd be the GOAT. It all depends what gives first - Murray's ability to play like this or Djokovic's mental state at having to defend for his life but still losing the point.

The Special Juan wrote:If he played like this every match he'd be the GOAT.

Well well, let's calm down here.

But he is playing quite nicely right now, I admit.

summerblues wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:If he played like this every match he'd be the GOAT.

Well well, let's calm down here.

But he is playing quite nicely right now, I admit.

Sorry I'm getting carried away!!  But still...

Edit: I do understand it's impossible to play that way all match, every match.

Similar to the AO SF they played in 2011 where Murray wins a tough set and then gives away the next one cheaply.

I think Murray's physically spent here. He's got a reputation for being a bit graphic at times but this looks like genuine fatigue.

How is Murray still in this? Is Djokovic just waiting for 5-4 and 6-5 so he can take swings at these serves?

Well done Djokovic

Andy Andy

Haven't watched yet but sounds typically brutal.

Huge result for Djokovic but sounds like Andy can take a lot away from it too. His forehand appears to be attracting much comment (in a good way).

Andy got spent. Tired.

Djoko could do another 2 sets easy

Kei keeps surprising us, as does Stan with let down  

I'm surprised to hear that Andy faded so quickly.

I do wonder if he is carrying too much muscle now. He and Novak are similar heights but Andy must be carrying a lot more weight on his frame. That must take its toll in sets like the first two.

Agree, slim down a little and ease the back.

Also that coach is a joke,

Agree Murray carrying too much muscle but this has been mentioned many times...his legs gave out. He's more like a sprinter to Djokovic's middle distance runner. Good quality for 2 sets though.

Great result for Kei although I actually thought Wawrinka was nowhere his peak, was spraying UEs all night after set 1. Seemed to go into his shell and be afraid of chasing the match after set 1 too. But you have to hand it to Kei...he has 2 days rest now which will help. However, facing Djokovic won't. Is Novak's title to lose you feel.

HM Murdoch wrote:I'm surprised to hear that Andy faded so quickly.

I do wonder if he is carrying too much muscle now. He and Novak are similar heights but Andy must be carrying a lot more weight on his frame. That must take its toll in sets like the first two.

I think he's fit but not "Novak-fit" yet. I wonder how much training he was able to do in the post-AO training block due to the back. It's that training session which tees him up for the rest of the season or at least until post-Wimbledon. It feels as if he's one block behind and we won't see him at super fitness until Melbourne next year.

@lydian, you might be right but Nadal is only an inch or two shorter than those two but carries more muscle than both combined!

Ye even if Kei plays at his top level Novak would probably still get it done in 4, Stan should never have lost against a tired samurai but here we are

Andy!! Not good enough still.

Also, his energy levels weren't help by incomprehensible cramping against Haase and an unnecessary 4th set against Kuznetsov. He'll be back and if he can combine those forehands with some good serving Novak will be on the wrong side of the scoreline next time

So Berdy seems to be most dangerous guy left...

The Special Juan wrote:@lydian, you might be right but Nadal is only an inch or two shorter than those two but carries more muscle than both combined!

I'm not so sure about this. Nadal has monstrous biceps but his torso doesn't look particularly stacked to me.

Also, Nadal's build is closer to his natural build, as is the build of Djokovic and Federer. Murray has overhauled his body shape in the gym. I think this matters. I think it increases the strain on the body when you go too far from how nature intended.

The extra muscle has clearly added power to his groundstrokes but I think the drop off in endurance leaves him with a net loss overall.

The unknown factor is the surgery of course, but Andy has said a few times that he feels fit and able to train at full capacity again.

Jahu wrote:So Berdy seems to be most dangerous guy left...

I'm not sure about that! But it does appear that Novak now has an easier route than Federer.

Sure, but Berdy has not even had a decent sweat and is hitting as good as he can, but can fold quickly too, Djoko might be tired till the Final, depending how much Kei can make him work.

Jahu wrote:So Berdy seems to be most dangerous guy left...

It could be fascinating between him & Federer assuming they both make it there.

It won't be a match of attrition, that's for sure; Roger knows that if Tomas gets a solid bead on a ball he can crunch it away so he'll have to shorten the rallies and in particular take time away from Berdych, get him hitting on the stretch or short of time to set himself. Tomas on the other hand will look to hit hard early to keep Federer back. If Federer regularly gets to the net on his terms he'll win, otherwise he won't.

Regarding Novaks threats, I'm sure he'd beat Tomas easily enough because he'll blunt the big guys power with retrieval. The only guy with any chance to beat Djokovic is Federer IF he played a very clean, attacking game and put pressure onto Djokovic's serve, which can go wobbly at times as we know. The odds would be against it though, for sure, and that's assuming Federer made it that far (probably wins 3/4 against Monfils and 1/2 against Berdych, giving him a compound 37.5% probability of making the final).

Jaha, yep, Berdy has flown under the radar so far. But Cilic is also much improved this year. I think that QF could be close.

Problem for Berdych is that it's a horrible match up for him with Novak (if that's who he faces in the final). Head-to-head is 15-2 in Novak's favour!

Yeah not much real chance there, though in a good day Berdy can blow out anyone.

bb, 37.5% probability is a disaster!!

Lets hope Cilic gives a good fight with Berdy as both hit flat and hard.

Murray doesn't look overly heavy to me and certainly no heavier than in 2012-13 when he was able to go toe to toe with Novak. Seems to me he is probably still light on training and needs a full winter block. If he is still gone after two sets in Oz then I will be concerned. As it is, its pleasing to see him back to a decent level and at least this performance wasn't as mystifying as Wimbledon. Aim has to be for a strong end to the year to give himself the chance to be back in the top 4 post-Oz.

HM Murdoch wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:@lydian, you might be right but Nadal is only an inch or two shorter than those two but carries more muscle than both combined!

The unknown factor is the surgery of course, but Andy has said a few times that he feels fit and able to train at full capacity again.

He would say that though. He's hardly going to say "I'm not training well and am not fit".

Djokovic is much lighter and flexible compared to Murray. Murray's gym-focussed tennis rather than stroke-making is blocking him.

This is a telling statistic, IMO, Net points won - Djokovic 24/34 (71 %), Murray - 10/21 (48 %). Murray is happy to slug it out from the baseline and Djokovic is happy to make Murray run and tire him out.

Very predictable second and third sets.

Nishikori is knackered, so a bit easier for Djokovic.

Monfils can keep his head screwed on and take the Old Man out.

Sorry Laver but I think that's absolute nonsense. I don't see how anyone could have watched Murray this tournament and come to that conclusion.

laverfan wrote:This is a telling statistic, IMO, Net points won - Djokovic 24/34 (71 %), Murray - 10/21 (48 %).

That's a very surprising stat, given the respective abilities of the two players in that area.

Break points in the first two sets is an intersting one too:

Murray - 4/13
Djokovic - 4/6

Murray clearly putting Djokovic's serve under pressure but not quite able to grab the opportunities.

Here's another telling statistic, IMO, Net points won in their previous games - Djokovic v Kohlschreiber 11/19 (58%), Murray v Tsonga 28/31 (90%).

I can't find the article I read it in currently but up to this match Murray had something like the 3rd highest net approaches in the tournament with the highest % success. He has been going to the net a fair amount. I would suggest a success rate of 50% is probably why he decided it wasn't a great tactic. That said, contrary to the notion in Laver's post, it was Murray who was dictating play and being the aggressor for the first two sets. Even by the end he had more winners than Novak.

The real telling mental stat is that Novak broke in every game he had break point. Andy only broke in 4 of the 10 games in which he earned break point.

Jahu wrote:Yeah not much real chance there, though in a good day Berdy can blow out anyone.

bb, 37.5% probability is a disaster!!

Lets hope Cilic gives a good fight with Berdy as both hit flat and hard.

Well that's what happens if you compound 75% with 50%. Given he'd have maybe 80% of beating Nish and 20% of Djokovic, and Djokovic is 90% over Nishikori, his chances in a final are (0.9 * 0.2) + (0.1 * 0.8) = 0.26, which when multiplied by the 0.375 gives him a 0.975 probability of winning - about 1 in 10. I am writing off Cilic in that, which is wrong, but it's only approximate.

The only way to increase it is to change the separate probabilities.

Agree with your stats, but don't LIKE them

Just watched the Murray Djokovic match. Quite a bizarre watch in many ways. Murray during the second set and the start of the third started to play out of this world, and then fell off a cliff physically. Also, his break point conversion was pretty awful.

Novak played well in patches, but I've seen him play a lot better. But even when Murray got on top Novak looked like he knew it was a matter of time. I must admit I find it odd that Murray should run out of steam. You'd never think he'd be physically outlasted so emphatically. Even by Novak.

Congrats to Novak. Think he'll win it now.

Tennisfan wrote:Here's another telling statistic, IMO, Net points won in their previous games - Djokovic v Kohlschreiber 11/19 (58%), Murray v Tsonga 28/31 (90%).

With 81% net approaches in matches prior to playing Djokovic, it dropped to 48% v Djokovic.

Jahu wrote:So Berdy seems to be most dangerous guy left...

Cilic should take him down.

Andy played a gem of match in general but for some reason could not close in crucial moments.
whats impressive was his forehands and comeback spirt when ever a break down, he broke back Djoko on all 3 sets when he was trailing [except for the 4th I guess] , but said that he has some new problems, losing energy quicker than what he he used to be in the past, dangerous trend of blowing the lead up.

so all in all some positive and some negative.

bogbrush wrote:

Jahu wrote:Yeah not much real chance there, though in a good day Berdy can blow out anyone.

bb, 37.5% probability is a disaster!!

Lets hope Cilic gives a good fight with Berdy as both hit flat and hard.

Well that's what happens if you compound 75% with 50%. Given he'd have maybe 80% of beating Nish and 20% of Djokovic, and Djokovic is 90% over Nishikori, his chances in a final are (0.9 * 0.2) + (0.1 * 0.8) = 0.26, which when multiplied by the 0.375 gives him a 0.975 probability of winning - about 1 in 10. I am writing off Cilic in that, which is wrong, but it's only approximate.

The only way to increase it is to change the separate probabilities.

Can't tell if this is a Serious post or...

laverfan wrote:

Tennisfan wrote:Here's another telling statistic, IMO, Net points won in their previous games - Djokovic v Kohlschreiber 11/19 (58%), Murray v Tsonga 28/31 (90%).

With 81% net approaches in matches prior to playing Djokovic, it dropped to 48% v Djokovic.

Awesome stats for Djoko on net approaches and won, actually it could have been even better had it not been for Murray's great passing shots.

Born Slippy wrote:Sorry Laver but I think that's absolute nonsense. I don't see how anyone could have watched Murray this tournament and come to that conclusion.

AO 2013 - two TB sets, two sets 6-3, 6-2.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxig0l3Xte8

USO 2014 - two TB sets, two sets 6-2, 6-4.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KywzQ_d_zI

Not much difference in score lines, but the foot speed is very different.

Add 5 lbs to your 5 mile run, and you will notice the difference.

Is there any evidence Andy is 5lbs heavier than in early 2013? He looks lighter to me. Even if he is, I can't believe that it could have anything to do with the fact he can't play more than two hours without suffering physically. Even real giants like Berdy or DP can manage that without looking like they are about to keel over. I don't have a real answer but it seems to me unlikely its a coincidence this problem has occurred the season after he returned from back surgery.

Thanks for the net stats. I suspect you will find that was far more than Murray was going in during the Lendl years. He probably should have gone in more versus Djoko but, to be honest, there were not too many points when i can recall thinking he should have been at the net. That said I don't actually recall Novak being at the net that much and those I can recall weren't successful, albeit I didn't watch set 4. As shown in the Wimbledon final last year, Novak at the net is not usually a smart play against Andy.

I think your criticisms ironically were accurate a year ago. I don't think they are even close to being accurate for the Andy who played this tournament. If the fitness problems are resolvable then 2015 could be a great year for him.

To my eyes, Murray is a 'fleet of foot' in the AO match compared to the USO match. He seems "heavier", but yes, you are correct these are subjective perceptions. Perhaps ITF should do something similar to the Boxing setup where there is a "weigh-in" for a bout.

laverfan wrote:Add 5 lbs to your 5 mile run, and you will notice the difference.

Very true. General rule of thumb among distance runners (source: I am one) is that 1 lb is worth 5-6 seconds in a 5k race. When you consider how little weight that actually is, you can imagine any kind of significant weight shift will make a huge difference - even for tennis players who sprint briefly over extended periods of time. Agree with you that Murray seems to cover the court more quickly in the AO match LF.

HM: There's a call for saying Novak ventures more to the net than Andy these days, which would've seemed incomprehensible a few years back. He's done very well to rectify his weaknesses in that area!

Born Slippy wrote:Is there any evidence Andy is 5lbs heavier than in early 2013? He looks lighter to me. Even if he is, I can't believe that it could have anything to do with the fact he can't play more than two hours without suffering physically. Even real giants like Berdy or DP can manage that without looking like they are about to keel over. I don't have a real answer but it seems to me unlikely its a coincidence this problem has occurred the season after he returned from back surgery.

Thanks for the net stats. I suspect you will find that was far more than Murray was going in during the Lendl years. He probably should have gone in more versus Djoko but, to be honest, there were not too many points when i can recall thinking he should have been at the net. That said I don't actually recall Novak being at the net that much and those I can recall weren't successful, albeit I didn't watch set 4. As shown in the Wimbledon final last year, Novak at the net is not usually a smart play against Andy.

I think your criticisms ironically were accurate a year ago. I don't think they are even close to being accurate for the Andy who played this tournament. If the fitness problems are resolvable then 2015 could be a great year for him.

+1

If John Isner should be at least 50 pounds more heavier than Murray and if he can play for that long that too in Roland Garros vs Rafa why would Murray's team be worried about it? either there should be some other problem for his fatigue or it wasn't a cause at all.

According to Google

John Isner is 112 kgs
Andy Murray is 84 kgs
Novak Djokovic is 80 Kgs
Rafa Nadal is 85 Kgs
Roger Federer is 85 kgs
Del Potro is 96 Kgs
Berdych is 92 Kgs
Tsonga 91 Kgs
Dimitrov 81 Kgs
Ferrer 73 Kgs
Robredo 75 kgs

Technically Johny Boy is 247 pounds in comparison to Murray's 187 pound, there is a gap of 60 pounds, Nadal and Federer are even heavier than Murray and shorter than him which means the BMI is higher than him.

So I don't quite buy his heavy theory.

invisiblecoolers wrote:People kept underestimating Kei, nobody beats Fed 2 times without talent and out of which one is Hard court and another one is clay shows this player can beat the best on any surface on his day.

While Stan is a superb player he can go down to a lot of players in spite of playing his A-Game let alone B-Game, he is not a Djoko/Nadal/Fed to play a B-game against top 20 playing their A-game and still end up winning.

Don't take me wrong I am not Anti- Wawrinka, its just he is been over estimated of late, the other day against Robredo even before match started people claimed the match in his racquet when he holding 2-6 h2h vs him and similar mistake today.

Wawrinka hasn't proved enough to convince a match is his racquet atleast not against big players, yes he can win a lot of big players but so do most top 20 players against him.

He didn't play his A game last night. In patches but his A game won a slam and a masters.
You haven't responded to my rebuttal of your post on the robredo match.