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PGA Tour: The Masters Winner, via Process of Elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

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Post by kwinigolfer Wed 08 Apr 2015, 3:08 am

First topic message reminder :

1).Last year I slurped a couple of bottles of Malbec and attempted to make a case for a European Champion. Henrik Stenson was the chosen candidate and he played well but not nearly well enough, Jonas Blixt finishing ahead of him as the leading Swede. So we changed the formula this year, not the Malbec of course, but let's revert to Andy North's time-honoured process of elimination.
NB: Any bias or prejudice is entirely intentional.

2).Starting with Amateurs. One or two have come close, Patton, Venturi, but none won a Green Jacket and that won't change this year. Seven eliminated.

3).No rookie has one since Fuzzy Zoeller over 35 years ago. I fancy Tringale to play well, but I'll go with history and take out the 13 first-timers.

4).Jack Nicklaus won the 1986 Masters at the age of 46, the oldest Champion. I don't see any of the forty-somethings in the field improving their game, so let's dispense with the likes of Westwood, Furyk and Els and 20 others. 23 can exit, best chances Phil, who's only had one top ten finish since Muirfield, and Cabrera, always a decent each way punt.

5).Augusta National could be the toughest walking course these guys play, not good if you're carrying a knock, physically or mentally, or in some cases Tiger, both. Bye bye to seven crocks, including McDowell, Stenson and Reed.

6).Poor putters and scramblers need not apply. 24 still standing are #110 or below in the PGA Tour's primary putting or scrambling stat. On your way then Dustin, Rickie, Keegan, Webb, Kaymer, Rose, Charl and Adam. Big risk sending Matsuyama and Oosthuizen down the road, but their putting has not been good enough. Russell Henley may be a putting genius but he needs to scramble too.

7).As baseball fans know, "Chicks dig the long ball", and so do Augusta's Green Jackets; bad news for slowpokes Crane and Na and eight others, none of them in the top 100. Sorry Sneds, still good for a place.

8).Only fourteen left so time to discard those currently out of form. Regardless of what they might have done elsewhere in the world, none of this lot have a PGA Tour top ten finish this year: Dubuisson, Grace, Ilonen, Mahan, Streelman, Villegas. Adios to the 6 of you.

9).And of the rest, only Jason Day, Spieth and Jimmy Walker have wins, so San-Moon Bae, Sergio, Rory, Ryan Palmer and Bubba can leave quietly down Magnolia Lane.

10).Day, Spieth and Walker have all played well at Augusta. Day and Spieth have play-off wins this year, Walker has two wins by a total of 13 strokes. Give me the proven winner and measure up Jimmy Walker for a Green Jacket. Cheers.

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Post by sirbenson Fri 10 Apr 2015, 12:27 am

It'll be an interesting setup tomorrow!

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Post by kwinigolfer Fri 10 Apr 2015, 12:33 am

The "leader" with a disadvantage in Round 2 is Charley Hoffman, teeing off in the middle of the day in a twosome with no "Starter's Time" to buffer the gap with the slowpokes in front.
The Green Jackets haven't got that quite right.

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Post by sirbenson Fri 10 Apr 2015, 12:50 am

Horschel only missed one fairway and green all day....

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Post by GPB Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:09 am

kwinigolfer wrote:The "leader" with a disadvantage in Round 2 is Charley Hoffman, teeing off in the middle of the day in a twosome with no "Starter's Time" to buffer the gap with the slowpokes in front.
The Green Jackets haven't got that quite right.

Playing twosomes in the midst of threesomes is something that Tour Players face every week.  Charley (and Brian) just need to pace themselves and occasionally stop and smell the azaleas and dogwoods.  (Take a Claritin).

Besides, it was probably an advantage to be the pacesetters today.  4 hr round and smooth greens.

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Post by kwinigolfer Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:39 am

Reported possibility that Stenson's bronchitis might force him to w/d before Friday's round.
Wouldn't be surprised if Stadler and Weir called Uber as well.

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Post by kwinigolfer Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:04 am

Another talking point: When he wasn't trying to swing way too hard, Woods looked like a decent golfer again. Good enough to make a cut, earn a ranking point or two, but nowhere near good enough to contend. 'Course, he blamed his putting as he usually does when he's in denial, said his chipping and pitching was the strength of his game. Which it was today, not so much his last three efforts.

So: Where does he play next?
He's probably not going to score enough points to get into the MatchPlay so presumably he'll tee it up at The Players. But he won't get away with tee shots like Thursday's at the TPC, much less forgiving. Then Quail Hollow perhaps followed a couple of weeks later by Memorial, then the US Open.
Maybe!

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Post by beninho Fri 10 Apr 2015, 8:45 am

I got to about 10.45 and flagged last night. Spieth is some player, but he was getting some luck out there, but all credit to him for making the most of it. Whilst the big names are a fair few shots back, I do not think Spieth will have it all his own way. He is young and inexperianced still. I was surprised with Tiger, he played better then I or most people thought. He is in no shape to challenge for the big W, but it shows he is still at leats half decent.

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Post by mystiroakey Fri 10 Apr 2015, 9:07 am

Speith was putting quite amazingly on the slower Augusta greens. A lot could change when the pressure builds and they speed up. But he deserved the 64 and no one came within 3 so it's some day for him.

Rory will look at being 4 behind, and I am still backing him to take this.

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Post by John Cregan Fri 10 Apr 2015, 9:28 am

At this stage, anyone who didn't break 70 will feel like they have a lot of catching up to do and a lot of that depends on Speith. If Speith can get to 11 or 12 then you'd fear the likes of McIlroy at -1 is going to push and that doesn't work at Augusta.

Woods once again coming up with - "couldn't get the pace of the greens" was ludicrous - Top 30 is as much of a realistic goal as he can have.

I'm liking Els chances of hanging around - have a small EW on him at 150/1

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Post by mystiroakey Fri 10 Apr 2015, 9:35 am

John Cregan wrote:At this stage, anyone who didn't break 70 will feel like they have a lot of catching up to do and a lot of that depends on Speith. If Speith can get to 11 or 12 then you'd fear the likes of McIlroy at -1 is going to push and that doesn't work at Augusta.

Woods once again coming up with - "couldn't get the pace of the greens" was ludicrous - Top 30 is as much of a realistic goal as he can have.

I'm liking Els chances of hanging around - have a small EW on him at 150/1

the mentality to take is to forget Speith and concentrate on the leaders being 5 under

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Post by mystiroakey Fri 10 Apr 2015, 9:39 am

BTW i am not disputing anything you say- "IF" Speith can keep scoring low you dont want to push on this course and he will run away with it- but the chances are one of the field will still beat him and the only mentality for the 1 unders is to imagine the players to beat are at 5 under

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Post by Scottrf Fri 10 Apr 2015, 10:00 am

Hole 1 was the only bogey he could blame on the putting. Well short on his first.

4 he went off the back from sand, 9 he was all over the place and his long putt was excellent, 12 was wet.

He came up a bit short on a few, but from some distance. 7th, 16th, . Whereas he made the ones you'd expect from a bit further back, 11th, 12th etc and made a few up and downs.

His accuracy just wasn't giving him chances, his short game was very good.

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Post by kwinigolfer Fri 10 Apr 2015, 10:17 am

Who's going to come out of the pack and shoot a low round on Friday?
Looks like it will be fine weather again and the course/greens will play firmer and faster.

The biggest wrinkle I can see is if Stenson calls it a day - it could be a long walk for Spieth if him and Billy Ho play as a twosome, lots to think about between shots.

Still, very early days yet.

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Post by incontinentia Fri 10 Apr 2015, 10:31 am

I know its early to be saying this but I will be amazed if McIlroy is wearing the green coat on sunday. Don't think his game is anywhere near its best, but hey if anyone can turn it around Rory can.

Is Woods actually trolling the media with all this 'release pattern' and 'glutes not activating' nonsense? Sometimes I wonder

Spieth said last week he's becoming more comfortable with the pressure of being in contention. He is potentially looking at wire to wire at this point, which imo is the most pressure someone can have in a golf tournament and especially a major. I hope he gets it done.
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Post by McLaren Fri 10 Apr 2015, 10:38 am

Tigers swing was really weird, It looked like he was taking the club away closed and then somehow leaving the face open at the top. The wild chop after that just looks grim.


To win speith probably doesn't have to shoot in the 60's again, assuming he doesn't post something well over par at some point. We are constantly told that you can't win it on friday but speith is a player in great form and has put himself in a very strong position.
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Post by kwinigolfer Fri 10 Apr 2015, 10:40 am

According to pgatour.com Rory only missed one fairway off the tee (presumably #2 where he took a penalty), so that doesn't say much for his irons. But it does suggest that 71 was about the worst he could've shot.
Horschel missed just one fairway and one green.

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Post by Scottrf Fri 10 Apr 2015, 10:46 am

Shooting a 71 on the easiest day after hitting every fairway is really quite poor for someone hoping to compete.

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Post by LadyPutt Fri 10 Apr 2015, 12:11 pm

Rory just doesn't get his second shots close enough to the pin to give himself a fighting chance of a birdie putt (given his relatively poor putting). He needs to work on those two elements and forget smashing his driver over 300 yards. I've always said that it's the second shot that counts more than the drive and it's often helped me in matchplay when my opponent drove 50 yards longer than me.
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Post by kwinigolfer Fri 10 Apr 2015, 12:12 pm

"Fair and balanced" tweets from some Irish Golf Desk hack called Brian Keogh:
"McDowell heads Irish challenge."
"Rory off the pace."

Both shot 71.

That's the sort of thing we learned in primary school to define "propoganda".




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Post by kwinigolfer Fri 10 Apr 2015, 12:16 pm

LP, Surely Rory is better off hitting "his driver over 300 yards" than hitting it 250 yds?
After all, he only missed one fairway, according to the stat's.
But he DOES need to sharpen his iron play up.

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Post by McLaren Fri 10 Apr 2015, 12:23 pm

Kwini

Do you think anyone outside the current top 10 will win?
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Post by sirbenson Fri 10 Apr 2015, 12:46 pm

Kwini,

Brian Keogh is usually spot on but I'd have to agree with that assessment you made!

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Post by sirbenson Fri 10 Apr 2015, 12:47 pm

https://twitter.com/TheMasters/status/586491644406554625

The Pin Positions for Day 2

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Post by sirbenson Fri 10 Apr 2015, 12:50 pm

What do people think Spieth will shoot today!?

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Post by pedro Fri 10 Apr 2015, 12:54 pm

sirbenson wrote:What do people think Spieth will shoot today!?
68. -3 on the par 5's, -1 on the rest.

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Post by kwinigolfer Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:03 pm

Mac,
Can someone outside the Top Ten win? Of course. Would just say I reckon there are more likely winners outside the current Top Ten than there are inside!

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Post by sirbenson Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:07 pm

Of my 5 bets for the tournament, my long shot is the highest place! -2 and he was 400/1 at the start! Seung Yul Noh!

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Post by beninho Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:13 pm

Spieth is good, but we cant build him up to be something special yet. a 3 shot lead is not a guarentee he will win. He blew two shot lead on the back 9 last year.

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Post by sirbenson Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:27 pm

What do those pins look like in terms of difficulty? I am not a great reader of pins in terms of how they setup!

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Post by I'm never wrong Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:30 pm

sirbenson wrote:What do those pins look like in terms of difficulty? I am not a great reader of pins in terms of how they setup!
Without knowing where the slopes are on the green, I wouldn't even begin to guess.

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Post by GPB Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:31 pm

McLaren wrote:Kwini

Do you think anyone outside the current top 10 will win?

Paddy Power customers do as Rory is the 3rd favorite.

Paddy Power Odds

Jordan 2/1
J-Day 5/1
Rory 10/1
Justin 11/1
Sergio, Dustin 18/1
Bubba 20/1
Phil 25/1
Ernie, Hoffman 35/1
....
Tiger 80/1

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Post by sirbenson Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:37 pm

I'm never wrong wrote:
sirbenson wrote:What do those pins look like in terms of difficulty? I am not a great reader of pins in terms of how they setup!
Without knowing where the slopes are on the green, I wouldn't even begin to guess.

Yep, exactly the same! The 4th pin does look a mighty difficult one in saying that!

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Post by Lairdy Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:43 pm

Brilliant round by Speith last night. More importantly for us, it was great entertainment. I think if he shoots a 71 he'll still be leading by COP. If he looks behind him Day is probably the biggest threat. What a run of birdies that was last night. It was a good first round all in I thought. A few more stars to align first but I'm already dreaming of a tightly bunched finish similar to the year Schwartzel won it. Sadly, I don't think Els will last the place, but I'd like to see him slip on a green jacket as much as I would like Rory to win. Speaking of Rory - can he avoid a freaky friday?? Fingers crossed!!

Booze update Whisky - Popped the cork on a 12 year old Glendronach last night for a small taste and it was niiiice. Looking forward to getting better acquainted tonight. The golf too!

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Post by John Cregan Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:44 pm

GPB wrote:
McLaren wrote:Kwini

Do you think anyone outside the current top 10 will win?

Paddy Power customers do as Rory is the 3rd favorite.

Paddy Power Odds

Jordan 2/1
J-Day 5/1
Rory 10/1
Justin 11/1
Sergio, Dustin 18/1
Bubba 20/1
Phil 25/1
Ernie, Hoffman 35/1
....
Tiger 80/1

Cheers GPB. Have a little € 2 ew on Ernie at 150/1 which I thought was generous. 35's still generous seeing as he has 4 Majors and still has a great game. He putts well, he will finish Top 10.

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Post by John Cregan Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:47 pm

Twice now Monty has announced "unchallenged" that the Cut is Top 44. Wrong Monty....Top 50 since 2013.

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Post by sirbenson Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:49 pm

John Cregan wrote:Twice now Monty has announced "unchallenged" that the Cut is Top 44. Wrong Monty....Top 50 since 2013.

It's so lazy the amount of stats pundits get wrong when it is simple research! Annoying!

Monty is a great pundit though!

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Post by mystiroakey Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:50 pm

Well i had casey and rose each way pre tourney , and westy and rory.

Rorys odds are not a true reflection(about 14 on the exchanges) - its market based. however if someone can do it its him.


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Post by mystiroakey Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:51 pm

John Cregan wrote:Twice now Monty has announced "unchallenged" that the Cut is Top 44. Wrong Monty....Top 50 since 2013.

I havent heard him say that- however did he mean top 44 and ties which is 50 players or over?

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Post by sirbenson Fri 10 Apr 2015, 1:52 pm

Casey for me is playing really well and I'd be surprised if he isn't in contention come Sunday evening!

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Post by beninho Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:06 pm

Monty is awful. It was good when they had him watching the floating green yesterday. He was struggling.

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Post by Lairdy Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:09 pm

Re the pins - I think No.1 has some severe slopes to that back corner (or is it no.3 the sometimes driveable par 4?). Cant remember which way though.
No.2 looks reasonably favourable. The green kicks the balls right I think. Proabably not a hard up and down out the bunker either.
No.3 can be driveable but I cant remember the slopes on the green. I think they are severe as part of the holes defence.
No.4 looks a bit of a b1tch, considering the par 3 length and I'm sure its on a high tier at that position.
No.5 & 6 I can't remember. 6 is a shortish par 3.
No.7 is the hole where Phil Mickelson hit an amazing hook onto when he and Tiger duelled it out on the front 9 a few years ago. I think. The slopes throw the balls to the right so should be ok if I am correct.
No.8 Is the par 5 up hill with blind green. Slopes from back to front and is reasonably flat. Should be ok if you can get below the hole.
No.9 Has a ridculous slope back to front. Most putts will be from below the hole so shouldnt be too bad. However, I dont think long is an option.
No.10 Looks ok. Fairway lies will encourage a draw. Wanna stay below the hole though.
No.11 If you hit the green you will probably be pretty close. More birdies today? But if you bail out right like most then ask Bubba what number you can get the almighty one on. More bogeys today as well?
No.12 Probably less balls in the water than yesterday with that pin but then you should be between the bunkers all day every day on this hole.
No.13 not sure how balls react on that side of the green but a lot of the approach shots yesterday to the long right pin ended up short right, which should be good today.
No.14 Dunno. Side with Jack and hit the middle.
No.15 Should be inviting for approach shots. Dont wanna be long, at least not with your third.
No.16 Complete pig. Probably a 6 foot square target or similar?
No.17 I think middle of the green or right of kicks balls further right. Green is probably halved in size for approaches today.
No.18 Dont go in the bunker. Severe slope from right hand side towards the middle of the green. Anything on front half of green should end up below hole. I think extreme left or long left is a boomerang putt.

Caveat - the above could all be complete tosh as it's only based on my limited memory and viewing experience.


Last edited by Lairdy on Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by kwinigolfer Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:11 pm

The cut provision allowing players to golf the weekend if they're within ten shots of the leader will have a lot of guys hoping that Spieth drops a stroke or two.
Not much movement so far.
I imagine Montgomerie is insufferable - he should go away for a year and watch Richie Benaud broadcasts to better learn his craft. Less is more would be the first lesson.

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Post by Eyetoldyouso Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:11 pm

seems like a 2 horse race - Spieth & Day.

I find Spieth very very impressive. He doesn't make many costly mistakes, plays a conservative game, good tempered and has a hot putter. Some pundit compared him to Nicklaus, can't recall who.

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Post by GPB Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:12 pm

Monty said Top 44 on his appearance on Golf Channel last night.

And BTW, most of the people here where I live like Monty's commentary.

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Post by sirbenson Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:14 pm

Great analysis Lairdy!

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Post by John Cregan Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:14 pm

mystiroakey wrote:
John Cregan wrote:Twice now Monty has announced "unchallenged" that the Cut is Top 44. Wrong Monty....Top 50 since 2013.

I havent heard him say that- however did he mean top 44 and ties which is 50 players or over?
No - he jut got it wrong Wednesday & Thursday...The Cut is Top 50 & ties & 10 shot rule. Appears Murray, Livingstone, Butch & McGinley either don't know either or don't want to embarrass Monty

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Post by sirbenson Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:15 pm

Calling it a 2 horse race after 1 round, that's crazy imo! Sure Spieth and Day are the favourites but there is 54 holes to go!

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Post by mystiroakey Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:19 pm

Silly excitable Monty.






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Post by kwinigolfer Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:19 pm

GPB,
That speaks volumes . . . . . .

Woosie on the slippery slope, must have had a boozy night. +7 over his last 9 holes. Can a letter from Billy Payne be far away?

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Post by owen10ozzy Fri 10 Apr 2015, 2:26 pm

Seems the stars...or should I say weather are aligning for Spieth and some of the others on decent scores and starting early; Green's should be a little quicker today but you'd fancy most at the top to tackle it as they did yesterday. Those setting out after 4pm may be out of the running by tonight with heavy thunderstorms and shows set to scupper many a round including Rory's...Going to be a very interesting day indeed.

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