PGA Tour: The Masters Winner, via Process of Elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

1).Last year I slurped a couple of bottles of Malbec and attempted to make a case for a European Champion. Henrik Stenson was the chosen candidate and he played well but not nearly well enough, Jonas Blixt finishing ahead of him as the leading Swede. So we changed the formula this year, not the Malbec of course, but let's revert to Andy North's time-honoured process of elimination.
NB: Any bias or prejudice is entirely intentional.

2).Starting with Amateurs. One or two have come close, Patton, Venturi, but none won a Green Jacket and that won't change this year. Seven eliminated.

3).No rookie has one since Fuzzy Zoeller over 35 years ago. I fancy Tringale to play well, but I'll go with history and take out the 13 first-timers.

4).Jack Nicklaus won the 1986 Masters at the age of 46, the oldest Champion. I don't see any of the forty-somethings in the field improving their game, so let's dispense with the likes of Westwood, Furyk and Els and 20 others. 23 can exit, best chances Phil, who's only had one top ten finish since Muirfield, and Cabrera, always a decent each way punt.

5).Augusta National could be the toughest walking course these guys play, not good if you're carrying a knock, physically or mentally, or in some cases Tiger, both. Bye bye to seven crocks, including McDowell, Stenson and Reed.

6).Poor putters and scramblers need not apply. 24 still standing are #110 or below in the PGA Tour's primary putting or scrambling stat. On your way then Dustin, Rickie, Keegan, Webb, Kaymer, Rose, Charl and Adam. Big risk sending Matsuyama and Oosthuizen down the road, but their putting has not been good enough. Russell Henley may be a putting genius but he needs to scramble too.

7).As baseball fans know, "Chicks dig the long ball", and so do Augusta's Green Jackets; bad news for slowpokes Crane and Na and eight others, none of them in the top 100. Sorry Sneds, still good for a place.

8).Only fourteen left so time to discard those currently out of form. Regardless of what they might have done elsewhere in the world, none of this lot have a PGA Tour top ten finish this year: Dubuisson, Grace, Ilonen, Mahan, Streelman, Villegas. Adios to the 6 of you.

9).And of the rest, only Jason Day, Spieth and Jimmy Walker have wins, so San-Moon Bae, Sergio, Rory, Ryan Palmer and Bubba can leave quietly down Magnolia Lane.

10).Day, Spieth and Walker have all played well at Augusta. Day and Spieth have play-off wins this year, Walker has two wins by a total of 13 strokes. Give me the proven winner and measure up Jimmy Walker for a Green Jacket. Cheers.

owen10ozzy wrote:Seems the stars...or should I say weather are aligning for Spieth and some of the others on decent scores and starting early; Green's should be a little quicker today but you'd fancy most at the top to tackle it as they did yesterday. Those setting out after 4pm may be out of the running by tonight with heavy thunderstorms and shows set to scupper many a round including Rory's...Going to be a very interesting day indeed.

pffft

i hope not.

With the rain forecast would that not play into the afternoon groups hands if they get an even softer course?

Current radar projections are that most of shower activity will miss Augusta to the north. Likely be a drop or two, but wind shouldn't be much different to what Spieth played most of Thursday in.

King Louis birdies his first two - no albatross yet though.

Jordan is not a long hitter and let's not forget how Rory imploded on the back 9 on Sunday just a few years ago. Despite what the talking heads might be saying ("Jordan only needs to not blow up", etc.), this tournament is far from over.

Looks like Stenson is a GO.
Not quite sure why pgatour.com calls him Hedrick though. Any old dis will do I suppose. Surprised he's not on the clock already.

kwinigolfer wrote:Looks like Stenson is a GO.
Not quite sure why pgatour.com calls him Hedrick though. Any old dis will do I suppose. Surprised he's not on the clock already.

Funny they don't get the Euro names right, when they seem to have less problems with the preposterous yank names.

Scoring seems a lot more difficult this morning so far 4,5,6 seem to be playing quite difficult

Getting him confused with Hedwig maybe - I like it!

A better day for Lowry so far, one of only two players who are under par for today. Luis oostwhatever at -3.

Yes, those "Yank" names aren't "proper" ...

Harumph, Harumph ...

Poor start from Harrington will be a battle for him to make the cut now

Looks like +2 will be fine for the Cut with +3's in with a good shout. +4's or worse need 10 shot rule help which is unlikely.

If speith finishes -10 or better, does he force others to start attacking even at this early stage?  I doubt the winning score will be better than -12, but even so for the likes of mcilroy that is an average of -3 per round just to get to -10.

Or do they hope speith makes the "inevitable" fall back towards them?

Does anyone have shot tracker? Just wondering how tiger managed to avoid birdieing number 2? Has he been discussing par 5 tactics with r-mac?

LadyPutt wrote:Rory just doesn't get his second shots close enough to the pin to give himself a fighting chance of a birdie putt (given his relatively poor putting). He needs to work on those two elements and forget smashing his driver over 300 yards. I've always said that it's the second shot that counts more than the drive and it's often helped me in matchplay when my opponent drove 50 yards longer than me.

Yeah he really doesn't make enough birdies. If he can just sort himself out you never know he might end up the best player in the world and win a couple of majors.

Hopefully conditions will get a bit tougher (especially for sickly Spieth), I always prefer to watch players fighting for par.

Dear Ernie dropping back and looking a bit flustered. Come on Ern still a couple of par 5's to recover.

Mac,
He put his second shot in the front bunker, blasted out long and 2-putted. Looks like he's using a 3-wood for all his tee shots (except Par-3's of course).

Agree on the +3 cut-line, could even be +2 as scoring is pretty good. Furyk the biggest name really struggling now.

McLaren wrote:Does anyone have shot tracker?  Just wondering how tiger managed to avoid birdieing number 2?  Has he been discussing par 5 tactics with r-mac?

Second shot from fairway to greenside bunker. Took 3 to get down from there.

If the tweeters are to be believed, Spieth had to splash out from a fairway bunker on #8, then hit his third, from 228 yds, to 3 ft., as you do. Straightforward birdie.
Tiger just duffed his first chip. Bogey.

Ten-Shot rule should apply. Now. Only 28 golfers within ten shots of Spieth. Pretty bl00dy incredible.

kwinigolfer wrote:Spieth had to splash out from a fairway bunker on #8, then hit his third, from 228 yds, to 3 ft., as you do.

Shottracker showed him hittinng 30 yards out of bunker, and yes, to 3' for the next shot.

Nice bounce back birdie for TW ... he may actually make the cut!

Donald's woes continue.

Jordan cruising ... but if he could do it over this number of holes, why not Rory?

kwinigolfer wrote:Ten-Shot rule should apply. Now. Only 28 golfers within ten shots of Spieth. Pretty bl00dy incredible.

Then 9 groups, 20 mins apart = 4 hour rounds = 5 hour TV time. Job done.

I can't see anyone but Spieth winning this now truth be told; red hot form...at ease with the putter and has the right balance between attacking the course and taking what he is given. Even before Augusta...he has often had the knack of finding the right balance in the way to play...very difficult given that to see him implode and start dropping shots left, right and center.

The best bet now is to hope someone can at least put pressure on him going into the weekend...but with the suspected change in weather...I think we may be looking at the clubhouse leader after Day 2 as the Champion in waiting already.

Lets hope not..as a tightly contested tournament is always better than a procession...

I like Monty's analysis and making a trivial mistake like Top 44 vs Top 50 cut is just that, trivial.  I am not sure why people are so pedantic that you must focus on minutiae.

GPB wrote:I like Monty's analysis and making a trivial mistake like Top 44 vs Top 50 cut is just that, trivial.  I am not sure why people are so pedantic that you must focus on minutiae.

There speaks the chairman of the Pedantic Society.

Edit. Sorry, strictly speaking - Vice chairman.

Els -9 for the Par 5's so far............incredible long hitting.

Speith is playing like a machine. That is not a good sign ..

I think I prefer Ahmen corner coverage to the main one.

Not much to talk about is there?
Though it does look as if the afternooners might get wet.
No-one making any sort of run at Spieth except for O'EffingMeara.

Another birdie despite driving into the trees so that's -13 and only a dozen golfers within 10 strokes. Field well and truly spreadeagled.

mystiroakey wrote:I think I prefer Ahmen corner coverage to the main one.

That's what I am watching. Commentators OK, but sometimes a bit patronising.

Great quote in the Grauniad from Richie Benaud about commentators:
"Put your brain into gear and if you can add to what's on the screen then do it, otherwise shut up."

I think commentators the world over have forgotten that.

I digress, Woods mounting a challenge, adjacent, as Richie would say, to the awful O'Meara - Tiger's brand new old friend.

Come on Casey. Melt the course. 1 under through 1. he made the most relaxed interview ever yesterday. He just didn't care about anything. If he can translate that into a lack of fear on the course. He could be the challenger this championship needs.

Sounds like Stenson is playing his final few holes with less than a full bag-full. Snap!

Rory bogeyed the first. Not what he needs. Jordan is very impressive. It's like he's playing St Andrews out there.

What's the 36 hole record, -13?

kwinigolfer wrote:Ten-Shot rule should apply. Now. Only 28 golfers within ten shots of Spieth. Pretty bl00dy incredible.

Now three.

This from the Golf Channel:
"Kaymer running away with the US Open felt like a funeral, Spieth running away with The Masters feels like a coronation."

That's the sort of c r a p one is thinking of when one refers to the "American media".

Brilliant stuff from Spieth, blown away everyone. Was looking forward to a Sunday finale, full of excitement, but it's going to end up a Zzzzzzzzzzz.........

Yea i just can't see Speith messing up that bad, i mean 14 under is normally a very good winning score. Even if he just plays the rest of the tournament level he'll probably win.

Forgot to say Bradley Neil who won the British Amateur championship last year finished plus 13. He good friends with my youngest brother and was up to 1 playing poker with us just before he was due to fly out to Augusta   maybe not the best preparation but a great experience.

Perhaps he "was up to 1 playing poker" last night?

Just seen Dustins' scorecard. Double bogey - eagle. Wow.

Ireland could be shut out of the weekend unless a few fall back to give Shane a chance.

Kinda feel sorry for Charley Hoffman . . . . .

monty junior wrote:Forgot to say Bradley Neil who won the British Amateur championship last year finished plus 13. He good friends with my youngest brother and was up to 1 playing poker with us just before he was due to fly out to Augusta   maybe not the best preparation but a great experience.

But he would have slept on the plane and it would be better to stay up late to get acclimatised to the time zone difference.

Sorry just saying it might have been his plan. He might not be a little wrong un.(which he probally is )

Yea i think he would have mate, he was there about ten days before the tournament so no jet lag excuses. Probably should get practicing more though, he holed his third on the second hole for eagle when he went for a practice round with McIlroy on monday. Which was pretty cool! Being around the pro's will hopefully give him the kick up the backside he needs to take his golf to the next level.

McLaren wrote:If speith finishes -10 or better, does he force others to start attacking even at this early stage?  I doubt the winning score will be better than -12, but even so for the likes of mcilroy that is an average of -3 per round just to get to -10.

Or do they hope speith makes the "inevitable" fall back towards them?

Question answered. Attack, attack , attack.


Oh yeh, and that not better than -12 thing. :picard:

Is the Masters all over? Spieth has looked unstoppable so far.

It might not be as dramatic, but I find a golfer who demolishes the competition worth watching.

Good stuff Jordan!!

I never thought I'd say it about the Masters but I do think it's *almost* all over.

I'm sensing a bit of a backlash against Spieth on here already though - how dare he dominate the first few days? Yes an exciting finish on Sunday is great but I'd also love to see a young star like him - one without some of the unlikeable traits of other young stars - take this home and win in style

I don't recall a similar backlash when young Tiger or young(er) Rorys took a major to the cleaners

I'd say Spieth's round today was even better than yesterday as (from what I've seen) he didn't have a couple of pinches of luck

Bloody well done Tiger.

If dirty Garcia holes his birdie (big if for him) is he likely to play with Woods in the 3rd round? Could be worth watching.........

Its nowhere near over yet, it's only half time! Hoffman is well in it too, he's playing fabulously. I do think Spieth has the bottle to close it out but who knows what'll happen tomorrow or sunday!

American players can get a hard time on here, but I think Spieth is one of the best role-models in the game. I've never seen him lose his temper or act petulantly, and always seems to be smiling and pleasant.