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Pro 12 plus maybe Friends 20/21

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Post by Brendan on Sat 19 Sep 2020, 1:51 pm

First topic message reminder :

As one season finishes it seems the new one seems to start sooner each year.  Here is the breakdown of teams over the last three years. Places (based on league points) and points are order 19/20, 18/19, 17/18

Leinster (Champions and clearly the team to beat)
Place 1, 3, 2, Average 2
Points 69, 76, 70 total 215
Always have finished top of their conference and winners for the last three years
Goal - Win, anything else is failure

Munster
Place 3, 2, 4 Average 3
Points 51, 77, 69 Total 197
Yet another table where Munster fall short yet again.  Each of the last three years have been knocked out by Leinster
Goal - Top Conference (2nd in league) to finally avoid Leinster in the playoffs to make the final

Glasgow
Place 7, 1, 1 Average 3
Points 38, 81, 76 Total 195
Was this year a WC hangover or is it the start of the slide back to the chasing pack.  Losing key players is taking it's toll. No longer the best team in Scotland.
Goal - Win back dominance in Scotland

Ulster
Place 4, 4, 6 Average 4.33
Points 44, 63, 62 Total 169
Improving each year and seem like one of the teams to challange Leinster.
Goal - Get back to the final

Scarlets
Place 4, 9, 3 Average 5.33
Points 47, 52, 70 Total 169
Last year killed them but on their day a match of anyone. Best team usually in Wales.
Goal - make the final

Edinburgh
Place 2, 10, 5 Average 5.66
Total 51, 51, 68 Total 170
Like Scarlets last year killed them.  Have conquered Scotland and have one of the best coaches in the league.  Possibly the 2nd best team for next season if Cockers has cracked rotation.
Goal - make the final

Connacht
Place 6, 5, 10 Average 7
Points 40, 61, 39 Total 140
Excluding the first year under Keane have been playoff contenders each year.  But they need to push on and not just be happy fighting for a playoff sport.
Have to push for Top 4

Benetton
Place 8, 7, 7 Average 7.33
Points 36, 57, 55 Total 148
Consistency has got them middle of the table which is a good place to build from rather than just the place to stay.
Goal - time to push for Top 6

Blues
Place 9, 8, 8 Average  8.33
Points 33, 54, 54 Total 141
Again consistent in their place but have fallen down and past by their peers.  Have to be looking over their shoulders at Dragons and Zebre.
Goal - time to get above 8th.

Ospreys
Place 12, 6, 9 Average 9
Points 17, 58, 54 Total 119
Which year was the anomaly, when they finished 6th or 12th.  An old team who live on past glories. Last year 6th may have been down to the drop in form of Scarlets and Edinburgh.
Goal - stop the rot

Dragons
Place 10, 11, 12 Average 11
Points 24, 26, 20 Total 70
Slowly improving.  No longer unable to win away from home and building nicely.
Goal - has to be 9th

Zebre
Place 11, 12, 11 Average 11.33
Points 21, 19, 36 Total 76
Have alot of young players coming through.  Last year wasn't great but the other two were improvements on previous years.
Goal - Finished 10th and pick up some big wins.


Last edited by Brendan on Mon 21 Sep 2020, 12:38 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Guest on Wed 09 Dec 2020, 3:58 pm

Brendan wrote:
rugby racing and beer wrote:Good move for Wales and Peel but sadly have a feeling that he's been helped by Ulster as much as Ulster have been helped by him. Never struck me as the most intelligent man in the world. Might be a genuinely quality coach but Wales have far bigger structural problems than just bringing back their most senior Welsh coaches to coach in Wales. I wonder if he wouldn't have been better staying in a well run, winning system/team than jumping ship back to Wales so soon. The Scarlets are still the only Welsh team that seems to give their players and coaches a net positive when it comes to being employed by them. The Blues are flattering to deceive, they have the players, they look like they're on the cusp of something, but then it also looks the case that they're sort of constantly two steps behind the big hitters in the league, whereas the Scarlets can actually match the Irish bar Leinster most days of the week and play on an even footing. Hope it works out though. But it does feel like a symbolic gesture as much as anything else.

Does it not help to have people who have been in better setups come in and bring in some of those structures.

Supposedly Ruddock Is putting structures in place to rectify the problem Ospreys/Wales have in bring through young/u20 players.  This is probably down to his time at Leinster.  If you know how a good system is run its easy enough to implement most of it.

Peel has been part of an Ulster team on the up.  Can only be a good thing for Blues.  It would be a surprise if he wasn't an upgrade.  He has been there for 3 years (4 at end of contract) so not like he is leaving early or hasn't had time to prove himself.  If you want to move up the coaching ladder 4 years is a long time in one place.  I wouldn't be surprised if he is earmarked to take over down the road.

Ulster have brought though young backs and are one of the more exciting teams.  Is that not the kind of person the Blues would be good to get.

Definitely on the first point, but he hasn't been there very long, and I'd question whether he really has 'embodied' all of what is good about Ulster to the point that he can apply it 2-3 years down the line when the reality of coaching in Wales has worn away the hopefully bright start he brings after coming from a winning set up. In short, yes, but you want those people to be able to transfer those skills. Has he been in Ulster long enough? Would he be better off in England for instance and then coming back to Wales after he's really learned his trade?

Ruddock's a good example of someone who's been away for a long time and can hopefully add his abilities in a better manner than head coach, which never really seemed to be his forte. I suppose on the point of knowing good systems, I refer you to Mark Hammill coming over and saying Welsh rugby is amater and 20 years behind NZ. Now that might have been partially covering his own back as a flawed coach, but he's done ok since returning to NZ, and is obviously coming from a much better set up than either Wales or Ireland. It doesn't follow that people can translate something like a 'system' through force of will alone, these things are hard to change, and any positive development in rugby is often shortlived due to other teams adapting so quickly - to the point where money nearly always wins as it gives clubs freedom to adapt quicker and deeper in whichever way they need to. It's a sad point about rugby that underdogs rarely upset the odds unlike in other sports, namely football.

It's probably still a good move for the Blues. My issue is the very fabric of Welsh rugby has been allowed to stagnate over the last 10 years as we brought in dross like Clarke and Jackman while Gatland papered over the cracks with the national team. This seems like a symbolic 'big gesture' hire when the changes need to be much more 'creative' and go far deeper in to the pyramid in Wales. Not saying it's bad, but it seems like an easy quick fix and 'gesture' kind of hiring.

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Post by Guest on Wed 09 Dec 2020, 4:01 pm

That would of course be Mark Hammett, not Star Wars actor Mark Hamill...

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Post by Brendan on Wed 09 Dec 2020, 7:37 pm

So the issue is Wales is systematic and to do with Wales. Good to know.

Peel will have been at Ulster for 4 years.

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Post by Guest on Wed 09 Dec 2020, 8:15 pm

Odd response. Again. Wales can have problems while still suffering due to the competition they're in. It's not an either/or binary. Very odd.

You're being very generous saying he's been there for 4 years. He joined for the 17/18 season. At present, it's 3, with almost a third of that disrupted by coronavirus. That's not a lot of evidence to base a decision on - he and Ulster could go and do a Pivac from now until the rest of the season, after all! And as I said, it comes across as a symbolic gesture to right the wrong of handing chancers like Jackman a role in Welsh rugby they clearly were not fit for. Maybe it'll work, who knows, but I don't think he's going to revolutionise anything.

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Post by Brendan on Wed 09 Dec 2020, 9:59 pm

rugby racing and beer wrote:Odd response. Again. Wales can have problems while still suffering due to the competition they're in. It's not an either/or binary. Very odd.

You're being very generous saying he's been there for 4 years. He joined for the 17/18 season. At present, it's 3, with almost a third of that disrupted by coronavirus. That's not a lot of evidence to base a decision on - he and Ulster could go and do a Pivac from now until the rest of the season, after all! And as I said, it comes across as a symbolic gesture to right the wrong of handing chancers like Jackman a role in Welsh rugby they clearly were not fit for. Maybe it'll work, who knows, but I don't think he's going to revolutionise anything.

It all depends what role you think he has played in the Ulster setup. To say 4 seasons isn't very much time seems odd. In the 17/18 season they did poor finishing 4th in their Conference. But since then they have solidified their position as the second best team in their Conference to Leinster.

While we have had some disruption from Covid it was only 6 months. I would say 4 seasons is enough to determine what his abilities are.

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Post by Guest on Wed 09 Dec 2020, 10:31 pm

At the point he has been hired, i.e. yesterday, it is closer to 2 seasons than 4.

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Post by Brendan on Mon 14 Dec 2020, 11:43 am

Reviewing this week's Euro games

Leinster with and easy away win in France bringing most of their internationals off the bench.  Still one of the top teams and the Pro14 teams can rest assured their B team is still extremely good.
Ulster losing at home to Toulouse isn't the worse result given their beating just a few months ago. Showed up well against a strong team but their mistakes cost them.
Ospreys got their biggest win of the season and looked good. Can only beat what's in front of you.
Dragons did ok given the covid issues.  Not great to lose at home but not terrible. Dragons are in it to learn and test themselves.
Glasgow are like Tigers a few years ago.  Still top 6 or so in the league but nobodies in Europe.  In all their matches v Sarries they at least gave a good account of themselves.  This weekend they were poor. Maybe the internationals coming back was unhelpful.
Zebre got a draw at home which was good for morale but but overall.  Bayonne though are doing well this year in the T14 so maybe not what was expected

Overall apart from Glasgow I think Conference A held up well against European opposition with Leinster and Ospreys doing well.

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Post by Brendan on Mon 14 Dec 2020, 11:54 am

Reviewing European results

Munster got the home win but no TBP which will most likely cost them a quarter.  Their youngsters held up well but maybe will feel they should have done more with the yellows.
Connacht went to Paris with little hope and left with head held high.  Getting a LBP is an achievement in itself.  Shows their progress.
Scarlets got the away win (and the doll I think).  Not a great game but will be looking for 3 wins now.  Held up their league form as scrappy but get wins.
Blues got the important away win but it was against the kids.  These kind of results have not gone great for the Blues before so a win is much welcome after a long losing run.
Edinburgh is one of two ways.  It was poor at home and never looked like being the better team. Or it was a good showing v T14 leaders who came to win.
Benetton got their first win of the season and it was a big away win in France.  Maybe it will kick start their season which as struggled with the big boys away.

Good performance by all the teams with Benetton and Connacht as best relative results.

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Post by mikey_dragon on Mon 14 Dec 2020, 9:00 pm

The away games will be the real test for Ospreys. As far as I'm concerned their star squad has a lot of improving to do.

Scarlets seem to be coming good in recent weeks, I would be concerned about whether their internationals coming back in unsettles them. Good to see Morgan Jones and Jac Morgan keep their places in the 23. Kalamafoni is turning out to be a vital cog in their pack, perhaps the most vital. They desperately need a few players to come back for Toulon though. They're Wales' best hope.

Cardiff were a bit meh. Defence letting them down again. Attack and work on the floor good as usual. Them and Dragons really need a few players back.

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Post by Brendan on Mon 21 Dec 2020, 11:33 am

Reviewing Euro Games

Wins (by date not importance)
Brive v Zebre. Win away from home and undefeated.  With Bayonne and Brive now out makes it look like they could make the last 16.  Good Result grinding out the win coming from behind.
Leinster v Saints.  Easy win with their second string team.  Routine against a side that are one game away from not winning at home in a calender year. Expected result
Sale v Edinburgh. Many put the close result down to Edinburgh defensive issues and controlled the second half.  With the results going as they are they have an outside shot at quarters, but they look more like the team of last year.  Good result.
Worcester v Ospreys. Good away win and scoring well.  Good to see them get an away win to build back up the confidence.  Real test is next few weeks which could make or break their season.
Clermont v Munster. Great win and result of the weekend.  The problem still remains if Munster started badly or Clermont stopped playing.  First of two big tests past with Leinster now in the sights.

Losses
Glaws v Ulster.  Going off of form Ulster should have won this.  They are now out as they face an away game v Toulouse.  Disappointing result and they focus now on three hard games where they could end up losing all three.
Bordeaux v Dragons.  Could have taken the covid score but probably got more out of the game then just the result.  Expected result but good experince. Out, time to focus on getting in next year.
Connacht v Bristol.  Not going for the kick at goal at the end when a try couldn't win it is either knowing they were out and wanted to practice attack or stupidity is unknown.  They have had two hard games and held up well.  Heading into the hardest part of the season.

Called off
Benetton v Agen. Given the loss was a bad result where realistically they were on course get 4 TBPs to possibly top the log.  Now they are chasing the pack.
Glasgow v Lyon.  28-0 loss might not have been the worse result for a squad that needs a break.  They have to be the most vulnerable they have been for many years.
Blues v Stade.  28-0 must be seen as a poor return.  Benetton put 45 points on them in Paris so in a race for points and tries this could cost the Blues.

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Post by Brendan on Mon 21 Dec 2020, 11:38 am

Scarletts v Toulon is a one for itself.

Good
TBP
Rest week after the internationals
Half way to the quarters which is a positive

Bad
Toulon will be out to get them in the return leg.
Covid issues where the team with the covid player ok to play with few close contacts v Bath who had to rest 14 over the same player.  In my view Bath chose to have the weekend off and so made the figures match.

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Post by profitius on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 9:22 am

https://www.the42.ie/south-african-pro16-april-5309606-Dec2020/

April is the date.
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Post by Brendan on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 10:36 am

I wonder if they will do some sort of playoffs with the 4 SA teams the top 4 Pro12 teams.

Good news for the league and should help improve the teams in the league

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Post by BigGee on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 1:21 pm

https://www.glasgowwarriors.org/news/guinness-pro14-announce-new-structure-for-conclusion-of-2020/21-season

Here is the new structure

No playoffs, a straight final in March then a mini competition with the SA sides included - The Rainbow Cup

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Post by BamBam on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 1:33 pm

Great news! Now the Welsh regions have 4 more losses to look forward to

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Post by Old Man on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 2:34 pm

I suppose that is only for this season, the 21/22 season would likely then be a full double round comp starting September 2021?

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Post by Old Man on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 2:35 pm

BamBam wrote:Great news! Now the Welsh regions have 4 more losses to look forward to

Well you would only play two SA teams in a conference, so it is only half as bad as you are expecting Wink

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Post by Old Man on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 2:36 pm

SA teams are depleting faster than you can say wtf, don’t expect too much of them, I don’t think they will be as great as some are expecting.

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Post by doctor_grey on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 2:45 pm

The new Rainbow Cup might be worth a thread of its own.  In the meantime, I think this is going to rock.  Great for Rugby in the Republic.  Great for Rugby at home.  This is a total jolt of lightning after a moribund 2020 (ie. crap, poop, merde, etc.)!

Exactly what we need to add to what could be a great Rugby year.  Now let's get the f**king Covid out of the way by doing what we know we need to do.  Then we can go back to our usual Rugby debauchery.

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Post by RiscaGame on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 2:53 pm

A round of derbies during the Six Nations, is madness. I probably wouldn’t have started this, this season with so much uncertainty over travel etc. It also seems to be a lot of fixtures, especially with a Lions Tour at the end of the season.

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Post by Brendan on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 3:02 pm

RiscaGame wrote:A round of derbies during the Six Nations, is madness. I probably wouldn’t have started this, this season with so much uncertainty over travel etc. It also seems to be a lot of fixtures, especially with a Lions Tour at the end of the season.

Players playing SA teams has to be a plus for players going on the Lions. You would have to feel that SA is as daunting for the Pro14 players as they have had 3 years of trips and games at altitude.

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Post by Brendan on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 3:09 pm

The Cup will be a nice pre-Lions warm up for the South Africans aswell. Think their teams will be trying hard looking to get a call up.

Yes the SA teams will be weaker due to the uncertainty (as we saw with Italian teams previously). But now they will have certainty going forward so the clubs can build from there.

Interested to hear about what figures will be discussed for TV deals and sponsorship.

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Post by mikey_dragon on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 7:58 pm

Old Man wrote:
BamBam wrote:Great news! Now the Welsh regions have 4 more losses to look forward to

Well you would only play two SA teams in a conference, so it is only half as bad as you are expecting Wink

If you remember how good the Cheetahs were on their own patch when they had a good pre-season, and had their sh*t together, then I can’t see many (if any) winning a match in SA.

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Post by Old Man on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 8:28 pm

mikey_dragon wrote:
Old Man wrote:
BamBam wrote:Great news! Now the Welsh regions have 4 more losses to look forward to

Well you would only play two SA teams in a conference, so it is only half as bad as you are expecting Wink

If you remember how good the Cheetahs were on their own patch when they had a good pre-season, and had their sh*t together, then I can’t see many (if any) winning a match in SA.

Difficult to predict what will happen, our teams have lost a lot of quality players since Covid, not many Springboks left in SA, so lots of new faces.

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Post by Brendan on Wed 23 Dec 2020, 9:16 pm

While the teams might be missing some of their stars the average SA player is strong and good at the basics.

It will take them a while to get use to the different weather conditions such as the wind & rain in Galway.  And to be fair apart from Leinster the rest of the teams are happy for them to be average.

But at home they will be difficult to breakdown and give a new challange to the Pro12 teams.  They will improve the physically in the league (which is the weakest of the three leagues).  Their packs will be strong which is what the league needs.

I know there are plenty of South Africans in Ireland who are looking to go to games when their teams visit.

I think the thing that the SA teams will struggle with is rotation.  In the Pro14 it's so far ahead of everyone else.  Coaches from other leagues especially Super Rugby struggle their first season as it is difficult to get the balance where players get rests while the results stay good.  Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Scarlets and Glasgow (until recently) have it down where they are difficult all the time. Sarries had it too in part to having an Irish coach and Exeter are starting to get it too.

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Post by RDW on Thu 24 Dec 2020, 1:16 am

Fair play to the Pro 12/14/16 I actually like what they're doing here.

This season was always going to be a mess, so it is a nice resolution to stick with the current teams and finish the tournament in March. The cup idea is a good one to introduce the SA teams then create the Pro 16 proper from September (how they do this is incredibly important IMO).

It gives the SA players some competitive fixtures too which is important for the Lions.

And if it means more money then even better

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Post by profitius on Thu 24 Dec 2020, 8:49 am

Old Man wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:
Old Man wrote:
BamBam wrote:Great news! Now the Welsh regions have 4 more losses to look forward to

Well you would only play two SA teams in a conference, so it is only half as bad as you are expecting Wink

If you remember how good the Cheetahs were on their own patch when they had a good pre-season, and had their sh*t together, then I can’t see many (if any) winning a match in SA.

Difficult to predict what will happen, our teams have lost a lot of quality players since Covid, not many Springboks left in SA, so lots of new faces.


They will be about mid table at least in terms of squad talent and not missing as many of their best players as much as the current pro14 mid table teams.
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Post by Pete330v2 on Thu 24 Dec 2020, 10:41 am

Do any of the new additions play at altitude? Will they be having a preseason tournament so they're up to speed while everyone else just gets started?
That's 2 massive handicaps to start a season off so I hope it's being addressed.

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Post by BigGee on Thu 24 Dec 2020, 10:58 am

Lions and Bulls both play at altitude

Likely they could play some friendlies amongst themselves to get up to speed

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Post by Gooseberry on Thu 24 Dec 2020, 11:19 am

Classic timing to announce this just before the UK puts a travel ban on SA! Hopefully things should be much better by March but both countries infection rates are still spiking upwards at this point with the new variants. Fingers crossed it can go ahead as planned, its good business short term for both leagues whilst they look at a more practical long term solution for future seasons.

Hard to know how strong the SA sides will be by the time this rocks around and how much rugby all sides will have played in the intervening period. This does make the NH season extremely long, but it looks like cancellations will continue for the next few weeks. Tiredness vs lack of rugby, what balance the various teams get of that is really hard to predict.

We can all slate the weaknesses of the format and draw when it comes around but as per the euro cups just be glad it happens at all if it does.

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Post by Brendan on Thu 24 Dec 2020, 11:23 am

BigGee wrote:Lions and Bulls both play at altitude

Likely they could play some friendlies amongst themselves to get up to speed

It the home and away fixtures I am wondering if they will set it up to get the most fans.

Leinster, Munster, Ulster and Scarlets will get the biggest crowds in SA and the games should be tight affairs. Getting the lower teams away give them some away wins and helps buy into the tournament.
I'm not sure Zebre at home and being tanked by Leinster away would do the same.

Also hope they have games in SA each week so that they feel apart of it not all 4 teams playing up North.

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Post by Brendan on Thu 24 Dec 2020, 11:31 am

From a Munster point of view I want Stormers and Bulls to be in the same conference.

Munster just bullied Cheetahs so didn't have to improve their game. Those two should be able to match up physically forcing Munster to improve their attack.

I assume teams will have one at home and one away.  If so I want Bulls away as I think it's the hardest game in SA.  Maybe it could be done when RG is fit and du Toit and him can go hell for leather at each other.

It will be the first time in 20 years that the father-in-law won't be supporting Munster as the Bulls are his team.

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Post by Old Man on Thu 24 Dec 2020, 11:49 am

It is likely that the SA teams will be paired as one from a coastal region and the other from altitude.

Capetown is by far the furthest away, so pairing them with Lions or bulls won’t make much difference logistically.

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Post by RiscaGame on Thu 24 Dec 2020, 11:53 am

Gooseberry wrote:Classic timing to announce this just before the UK puts a travel ban on SA! Hopefully things should be much better by March but both countries infection rates are still spiking upwards at this point with the new variants. Fingers crossed it can go ahead as planned, its good business short term for both leagues whilst they look at a more practical long term solution for future seasons.

Hard to know how strong the SA sides will be by the time this rocks around and how much rugby all sides will have played in the intervening period. This does make the NH season extremely long, but it looks like cancellations will continue for the next few weeks. Tiredness vs lack of rugby, what balance the various teams get of that is really hard to predict.

We can all slate the weaknesses of the format and draw when it comes around but as per the euro cups just be glad it happens at all if it does.

Yeah, I did think that about the announcement day.

If it happens, then good luck to it. On the face of it, I don’t like that there’s one less derby this season, but obviously Dean Ryan is keen for Dragons to be playing and gaining more experience, so this will at least allow that.

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Post by Brendan on Thu 24 Dec 2020, 2:45 pm

RiscaGame wrote:
Gooseberry wrote:Classic timing to announce this just before the UK puts a travel ban on SA! Hopefully things should be much better by March but both countries infection rates are still spiking upwards at this point with the new variants. Fingers crossed it can go ahead as planned, its good business short term for both leagues whilst they look at a more practical long term solution for future seasons.

Hard to know how strong the SA sides will be by the time this rocks around and how much rugby all sides will have played in the intervening period. This does make the NH season extremely long, but it looks like cancellations will continue for the next few weeks. Tiredness vs lack of rugby, what balance the various teams get of that is really hard to predict.

We can all slate the weaknesses of the format and draw when it comes around but as per the euro cups just be glad it happens at all if it does.

Yeah, I did think that about the announcement day.

If it happens, then good luck to it. On the face of it, I don’t like that there’s one less derby this season, but obviously Dean Ryan is keen for Dragons to be playing and gaining more experience, so this will at least allow that.

In today's world is there any day that is a good announcement day.

They didn't want it lost in Christmas.
They wanted to give fans closure on the end of the season.
Gives SA public the information they want which is what are they doing to prepare for the Lions
I guess anything involving the UK must have been bad time to announce news over the last few days with all the travel bans being announced.

It's more than easy enough to get bubbles set up.

One option for the Lions that hasn't really been discussed is you base the tour in the UK and Ireland. It might allow more fans into stadiums.  Midweek games can be European SA based players from each of the 3 leagues.

Something like this
Wk1 Wed Premership SA 15 v Lions in Leicester
Wk1 Sat SA v Lions Twickenham
Wk2 Wed Pro14 SA 15 v Lions Swansea
Wk2 Sat SA v Lions Millennium Stadium
Wk3 Wed T14 SA 15 v Lions Dublin
Wk3 Sat SA v Lions Murrayfield.

SARU would get alot of cash, all 3 midweek games would be strong opposition.  Covid would be less of an issue.  Plenty SA managers to manage the league teams.

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Post by Brendan on Tue 29 Dec 2020, 9:43 am

From Wales on line (may or may not be 100%)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/fewer-fixtures-more-money-amid-19530174.amp

They were the people to break alot of the original SA joining the Pro12 so may have a good contact.  What they reckon things will be going forward is

1. SARU paying £10m up from the £6m.  Which they reckon will be about £0.8m for each Pro12 team.
2. Travel costs - unsure if Pro16 will continue to pay travel costs from the central fund.
3. Games will reduce from 21 currently to 18.  The playoffs will continue.
4. Each team will play each other once (Like Super Rugby) with an additional 3 derby games (assume Scotland/Italy will be viewed as one)

So more money and less games should be good.  Trips to SA will go from currently 3 games every 2 years to 4 games every 2 years.
South African derbies look set to take place over the 6 Nations reducing the summer issue while one would assume the Christmas period will continue to be the European Derby period.

All in all if it is correct more money for less games must be seen as a win.
Having one league means everyone is competing against each other.  The derbies though will disadvantage Ireland and South Africa but I'm ok with that.

From an SA point of view they get one league. They get all their games on at better times.  They have 6 away games in Europe same as it would have been in SR.  They get paid in Euro.

In a time of small TV deals and smaller income (as seen with the large reduction in the Premership wage cap) it means the Unions should be able to keep hold of more quaility players.

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Post by Old Man on Tue 29 Dec 2020, 10:13 am

I just don’t understand why SARU must pay to participate?

Do the other unions also pay a participation fee?

How does the broadcast revenue work?

Is that split or do each union sell their own broadcasting rughts?

What about cvc?

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Post by Brendan on Tue 29 Dec 2020, 10:31 am

I also wonder if we will start to see some of the European based players heading back to South Africa.

Covid has been hard for alot of SA people who have discovered how far they actually are from family.

The second thing is money should be going up as all SA games will be at watchable times.  From the below article SuperSport were paying $US26m (£19.29m).  If they match that (which I think they will) then they would have £9.29 for 4 teams or £2.3m per year from TV.  Sponsership will be the bigger winner for the SA teams as it gives them access to the European market like never before.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/121523112/why-nz-rugby-could-now-rip-up-super-rugby

But as with everything that has been discussed is access to the Champions and Challange Cups.  If they don't then SA teams will be a bit better off.  If they do they will be much better off as per statements previously by Lions CEO.

There is alot of issues in SA that mean people don't want to raise kids there but many leave for money.  If the SA teams can afford more and French, English and Japanese less then they keep more.  Add in that there doesn't seem to be the same money in the Tasman Cup as SR so they may be the ones sending players North.

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Post by Brendan on Tue 29 Dec 2020, 10:33 am

Old Man wrote:I just don’t understand why SARU must pay to participate?

Do the other unions also pay a participation fee?

How does the broadcast revenue work?

Is that split or do each union sell their own broadcasting rughts?

What about cvc?

As far as I know each Union keeps their own TV money. The Premier sports money I think is split between the WRU, SRU and IRFU for the 7 teams in the UK.

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Post by Brendan on Tue 29 Dec 2020, 10:43 am

Old Man wrote:I just don’t understand why SARU must pay to participate?

Do the other unions also pay a participation fee?

How does the broadcast revenue work?

Is that split or do each union sell their own broadcasting rughts?

What about cvc?

Don't know about CVC. The Premership recently Did a TV deal worth about £100m but talk was CVC were getting their share of that.

I am sure that the main hold up is European access and the SARU know what they can get from their partners and know what they want to compete.

Can't see France and England standing in the way of European Cups and the SA teams I think would get full houses for most of those games. That will make a big difference to the coffers.

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Post by mikey_dragon on Tue 29 Dec 2020, 11:33 am

Brendan wrote:I also wonder if we will start to see some of the European based players heading back to South Africa.

Doubt it, more will probably come this way. SA should keep hold of their top players though, at least up until the British and Irish Lions tour. Bulls have money so might be able to tempt more their way, Stormers probably the opposite though.

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Post by Old Man on Tue 29 Dec 2020, 12:44 pm

mikey_dragon wrote:
Brendan wrote:I also wonder if we will start to see some of the European based players heading back to South Africa.

Doubt it, more will probably come this way. SA should keep hold of their top players though, at least up until the British and Irish Lions tour. Bulls have money so might be able to tempt more their way, Stormers probably the opposite though.

The drain has to stop eventually though, there are a finite number of teams in Europe, they all have limits on the number of overseas players, I know the Kolpak agreement hurts us when it comes to retaining players, but surely there must come a point where we have saturated the overseas market.

Also, if this Pro16 deal does not provide us with more revenue to retain players, the. what is the benefit?

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Post by Brendan on Tue 29 Dec 2020, 2:56 pm

Old Man wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:
Brendan wrote:I also wonder if we will start to see some of the European based players heading back to South Africa.

Doubt it, more will probably come this way. SA should keep hold of their top players though, at least up until the British and Irish Lions tour. Bulls have money so might be able to tempt more their way, Stormers probably the opposite though.

The drain has to stop eventually though, there are a finite number of teams in Europe, they all have limits on the number of overseas players, I know the Kolpak agreement hurts us when it comes to retaining players, but surely there must come a point where we have saturated the overseas market.

Also, if this Pro16 deal does not provide us with more revenue to retain players, the. what is the benefit?

I agree. The whole purpose of SARU wanting to join the Pro16 is to be able to keep the players they wish to like the other Pro16 unions. Each have their own criteria for who they want to keep.

English teams have dropped realistically to 14 financial teams. France is focusing more on French youth players. Japan are trying to get more professional Japanese players.

SA can't raise the money needed to support the number of professional quality player they produce so they will always be exporting players. The pro14 will allow them to bring back players much like Wales has. Currently the 4 SA teams will have a wage bill simillar to Zebre (cost of living much smaller so bigger in real terms). Being able to add another £1m worth of wages to each of the 4 teams would make a massive difference to each team. It would be 4 players for each team above what they have now.

SA players will have gone from being the cheapest players including the PIs to now being more costly then Oz, NZ or PI players.

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Post by Old Man on Tue 29 Dec 2020, 2:58 pm

Brendan wrote:
Old Man wrote:
mikey_dragon wrote:
Brendan wrote:I also wonder if we will start to see some of the European based players heading back to South Africa.

Doubt it, more will probably come this way. SA should keep hold of their top players though, at least up until the British and Irish Lions tour. Bulls have money so might be able to tempt more their way, Stormers probably the opposite though.

The drain has to stop eventually though, there are a finite number of teams in Europe, they all have limits on the number of overseas players, I know the Kolpak agreement hurts us when it comes to retaining players, but surely there must come a point where we have saturated the overseas market.

Also, if this Pro16 deal does not provide us with more revenue to retain players, the. what is the benefit?

I agree.  The whole purpose of SARU wanting to join the Pro16 is to be able to keep the players they wish to like the other Pro16 unions.  Each have their own criteria for who they want to keep.

English teams have dropped realistically to 14 financial teams.  France is focusing more on French youth players.  Japan are trying to get more professional Japanese players.

SA can't raise the money needed to support the number of professional quality player they produce so they will always be exporting players.  The pro14 will allow them to bring back players much like Wales has.  Currently the 4 SA teams will have a wage bill simillar to Zebre (cost of living much smaller so bigger in real terms).  Being able to add another £1m worth of wages to each of the 4 teams would make a massive difference to each team.  It would be 4 players for each team above what they have now.

SA players will have gone from being the cheapest players including the PIs to now being more costly then Oz, NZ or PI players.

Sounds realistic yeah.

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Post by Pot Hale on Tue 29 Dec 2020, 7:37 pm

Old Man wrote:I just don’t understand why SARU must pay to participate?

Do the other unions also pay a participation fee?

How does the broadcast revenue work?

Is that split or do each union sell their own broadcasting rughts?

What about cvc?

SARU are not shareholders in PRO Rugby - unlike the other 4 unions.  FIR until recently were meant to be paying participation monies by covering the costs of travel to Italy for visiting teams.  They reneged on that a couple of times, but that is now settled and FIR were made shareholders earlier this year.  

SARU signed a Participation Agreement for 6 years in 2017 with a midpoint review this season.  Part of their PA was the SuperSport TV deal of £6m a year based on their teams participating.   The new Rainbow Cup allows those monies to keep flowing this season.   So it's not SARU who are paying from their funds.   Their aim is to become shareholders which in turn is linked to getting EPCR allowing them to play and become shareholders in EPCR as well as a participant union of PRO Rugby.  

TV monies are negotiated by PRO Rugby and pooled centrally. How this new deal of £10m for 4 SA teams will be treated remains to be seen.
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Post by Old Man on Tue 29 Dec 2020, 8:07 pm

Pot Hale wrote:
Old Man wrote:I just don’t understand why SARU must pay to participate?

Do the other unions also pay a participation fee?

How does the broadcast revenue work?

Is that split or do each union sell their own broadcasting rughts?

What about cvc?

SARU are not shareholders in PRO Rugby - unlike the other 4 unions.  FIR until recently were meant to be paying participation monies by covering the costs of travel to Italy for visiting teams.  They reneged on that a couple of times, but that is now settled and FIR were made shareholders earlier this year.  

SARU signed a Participation Agreement for 6 years in 2017 with a midpoint review this season.  Part of their PA was the SuperSport TV deal of £6m a year based on their teams participating.   The new Rainbow Cup allows those monies to keep flowing this season.   So it's not SARU who are paying from their funds.   Their aim is to become shareholders which in turn is linked to getting EPCR allowing them to play and become shareholders in EPCR as well as a participant union of PRO Rugby.  

TV monies are negotiated by PRO Rugby and pooled centrally.  How this new deal of £10m for 4 SA teams will be treated remains to be seen.

Thanks for the explanation.

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Post by Pot Hale on Wed 30 Dec 2020, 2:08 pm

Old Man wrote:
Pot Hale wrote:
Old Man wrote:I just don’t understand why SARU must pay to participate?

Do the other unions also pay a participation fee?

How does the broadcast revenue work?

Is that split or do each union sell their own broadcasting rughts?

What about cvc?

SARU are not shareholders in PRO Rugby - unlike the other 4 unions.  FIR until recently were meant to be paying participation monies by covering the costs of travel to Italy for visiting teams.  They reneged on that a couple of times, but that is now settled and FIR were made shareholders earlier this year.  

SARU signed a Participation Agreement for 6 years in 2017 with a midpoint review this season.  Part of their PA was the SuperSport TV deal of £6m a year based on their teams participating.   The new Rainbow Cup allows those monies to keep flowing this season.   So it's not SARU who are paying from their funds.   Their aim is to become shareholders which in turn is linked to getting EPCR allowing them to play and become shareholders in EPCR as well as a participant union of PRO Rugby.  

TV monies are negotiated by PRO Rugby and pooled centrally.  How this new deal of £10m for 4 SA teams will be treated remains to be seen.

Thanks for the explanation.

Welcome.  Two clarifications.  I should have said how the additional £4m will be treated remains to be seen.  The current PA means £6m is already committed.  

Also, in May this year, CVC bought a 28% stake in Celtic Rugby Designated Activity Company for approx £120m - Celtic Rugby DAC runs/owns the PRO Rugby comp - so some of this investment was kept centrally for funding the organisation of the comp, referees, etc..  

The remaining 72% shareholding is split equally (18%) between the four shareholder unions - IRFU, WRU, SRU and FIR.  That is what SARU would be buying into. (They are already members of the board).  

Currently, the Competition Income from PRO Rugby is split each season according to number of participant teams from each union.   (I'm not sure if SARU receives their portion yet or not - I don't think so).  

As an indicator of annual value, both WRU and IRFU received approx £12m each in Competition Income from PRO14/EPCR comps in 2018/19.  WRU has an agreement to pass these monies on - without imposing a charge - to the 3 privately-owned regions and 1 union-owned region (Dragons).  IRFU keeps the monies and sets it against its costs of part-funding the player and management salaries for the Ireland team and its 4 provincial branches.   Not sure how SRU and FIR handle their CI.    

PRO14 monies is no more than 50% of this CI - so approx £6m in value currently each for WRU and IRFU.   Clearly, any new TV and sponsorship deal for PRO Rugby would need to increase the size of the pie if shareholdings drop from 18% to 14.4% for each of the 5 unions, and Competition Income has another 4 mouths to feed. The extra £4m is a start, but not enough, given CVC will have 28% of PRO14 incomes going forward.  

Other current broadcasters - Premier Sports, EirSport, DAZN - may have to dig deeper or alternatives found.
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Post by Old Man on Wed 30 Dec 2020, 3:56 pm

What I don’t fully understand is how the private equity in this case CVC expect profit.

Rugby Unions as a whole struggle to make ends meet, so how do CVC expect profit on a business model struggling to make profit?

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Post by Gooseberry on Wed 30 Dec 2020, 4:40 pm

Same way most sports investors do, by selling it for more down the line and using it as a tax sink or money laundering scheme in the mean time.

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Post by Old Man on Wed 30 Dec 2020, 5:13 pm

OK, makes the most sense, thanks

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