The v2 Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

2024 US Presidential Election

+16
No name Bertie
Soul Requiem
navyblueshorts
JuliusHMarx
alfie
Samo
Lowlandbrit
Pal Joey
mountain man
rIck_dAgless
Mind the windows Tino.
superflyweight
the-goon2
dummy_half
TRUSSMAN66
Duty281
20 posters

Page 11 of 11 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11

Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by Duty281 Wed May 24, 2023 9:10 pm

First topic message reminder :

Thought we should have a thread on it, as Ron DeSantis is expected to launch his campaign on Twitter this evening. He's trailing Trump by a big margin for the Republican nomination, around 37% behind in the polling average. But there's a lot of time for things to change and the oddsmakers only have DeSantis as a 2/1 outsider, against Trump's 2/5. Doesn't appear to be any other serious contenders for the Republican nomination at this point.

Biden is expected to run again and defend his crown, but his advancing age (he's into his 80s now) and low approval ratings means he may be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger. The most likely challenger seems to be Robert Kennedy Jr. who has already announced his candidacy and has polled as high as 21%, but that was still 49% behind Biden. As such, Biden's a 2/9 clear favourite to be the Democrat nominee in 2024, but if he drops out for whatever reason then the race is wide open.

Only 531 days until the election...

Duty281

Posts : 32696
Join date : 2011-06-07
Age : 28
Location : I wouldn’t want to be faster or greener than now if you were with me; O you were the best of all my days

Back to top Go down


2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by TRUSSMAN66 Sat Mar 09, 2024 2:36 am

mountain man wrote:By all accounts quite a punchy state of union address by Biden. I didn't watch it just read BBC report.
Seemed more of a campaign speech than anything else?

The old boy managed to get through his address pretty much okay.....Maybe Navy is right to admonish us for asking for the white coats just yet....

I expected "doddering Joe" but he got through a lengthy speech.....A worry for Trump. But then again no doubt Biden is struggling and 8 months is a long time.

We'll see.....But well done sleepy Joe for now...

Have a good weekend folks... thumbsup

TRUSSMAN66

Posts : 40524
Join date : 2011-02-02

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by TRUSSMAN66 Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:32 pm

CC poll....

Biden
App.....34
Disapp 56

Rasmusson

App.....42
Disapp.56

Two pollsters........Two completely different results..........A landslide for Trump and a safe hold for Biden...

Very fluid this Election....

TRUSSMAN66

Posts : 40524
Join date : 2011-02-02

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by lostinwales Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:46 pm

Senile vs senile and detranged

lostinwales
lostinwales
lostinwales

Posts : 13288
Join date : 2011-06-10
Location : Out of Wales :)

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by Duty281 Wed Mar 13, 2024 9:59 pm

So both Biden and Trump officially over the line in terms of securing the delegates necessary to win their respective party nominations.

Good time to look at the state of the race.

RealClearPolitics has Trump ahead by 1.8% in the national polling average, in a simple head to head. This is an improvement for Trump of 8.1% on where he was this time four years ago.

When Kennedy is added to the polls, making it a three way race, Trump's lead extends to 4.3%, a pretty clear indicator that Kennedy is hurting Biden more than Trump. Kennedy's average is currently 15%, but I'd expect this to fall off...unless he gets into the debates, which would be quite something.

The race is currently focused on six key states - Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump is posting clear leads in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, backed up with a solid lead in Michigan and a narrow one in Wisconsin. Biden currently has a narrow lead in Pennsylvania.

This would leave the Electoral College 293-245 in favour of the Republicans.

However, Biden is not yet in proper campaigning mode, and we'll see if the gap closes as he gets on the campaign trail. The main concern from the Democrats perspective is that Trump has shown to be a great campaigner in the closing weeks of the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, and if the same happens again then Biden is surely toast.

As Truss pointed out, the approval ratings are interesting. Biden's net approval on 538 is currently 7% worse than Trump four years ago, while on RCP it's 8% worse. Biden's net approval on RCP is 20% worse than Obama's at the same stage, the last President to win reelection, so we can see the size of the task ahead of Biden. He basically has to hope the dislike of Trump is stronger than the dislike of him.

Just under 8 months to go!

Duty281

Posts : 32696
Join date : 2011-06-07
Age : 28
Location : I wouldn’t want to be faster or greener than now if you were with me; O you were the best of all my days

TRUSSMAN66 likes this post

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by TRUSSMAN66 Wed Mar 13, 2024 10:54 pm

The State of the Union address was just one big lump of campaigning from Biden...

The problem with Biden is they have to keep him hidden......Fallen over at least three times....Can't remember names or dates....

They will go hard on TV ads instead calling Trump a sex pest and con man.....Trump will respond by saying Biden belongs in a home and nothing will be done to address the plight of millions of Americans treading water...

Won't be much different over here......Starmer is an Antisemite.....Sunak hates muslims etc.....You wonder why Galloway types are winning ??

Smart move for Trump would be to pick Haley for the VP slot.....Her admirers and there are many will bet Trump who lives on Coke and burgers won't last and she gets the job.

Haley then can ask for moderates to come together for her new best friend....and we can all sing Kum ba yah.

As for Biden he won't mind too much being behind in the Margin of error....All incumbents get a push at election time when it is time to X the spot.

TRUSSMAN66

Posts : 40524
Join date : 2011-02-02

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by navyblueshorts Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:56 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:....and we can all sing Kum ba yah....
Laugh Nearly snorted my coffee over the keyboard....
navyblueshorts
navyblueshorts
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11031
Join date : 2011-01-28
Location : Off with the pixies...

Pal Joey likes this post

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by lostinwales Thu Mar 14, 2024 11:42 pm

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:The State of the Union address was just one big lump of campaigning from Biden...

The problem with Biden is they have to keep him hidden......Fallen over at least three times....Can't remember names or dates....

They will go hard on TV ads instead calling Trump a sex pest and con man.....Trump will respond by saying Biden belongs in a home and nothing will be done to address the plight of millions of Americans treading water...

Won't be much different over here......Starmer is an Antisemite.....Sunak hates muslims etc.....You wonder why Galloway types are winning ??

Smart move for Trump would be to pick Haley for the VP slot.....Her admirers and there are many will bet Trump who lives on Coke and burgers won't last and she gets the job.

Haley then can ask for moderates to come together for her new best friend....and we can all sing Kum ba yah.

As for Biden he won't mind too much being behind in the Margin of error....All incumbents get a push at election time when it is time to X the spot.

That will be news to his wife and children

lostinwales
lostinwales
lostinwales

Posts : 13288
Join date : 2011-06-10
Location : Out of Wales :)

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by TRUSSMAN66 Wed Mar 20, 2024 12:01 am

Trumpy has got a bit of a money problem..This $460 million bond seems bigger than his piggy bank...

When the Emperor Tiberius inherited the throne off Augustus after being previously kicked out of Rome to the island of Rhodes....A sage observed "There will be heads on the streets as all who return to rule from banishment rule bloodily"..

Trump will be no different....Four years of settling scores.

TRUSSMAN66

Posts : 40524
Join date : 2011-02-02

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by Duty281 Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:42 am

The monthly Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showing the Kennedy factor; his presence, on the below numbers, allowing Trump to win 29 electoral college votes and extend his advantage in two other states offering a combined 17 electoral college votes.

Trump leads by 5% in Arizona in a simple H2H; extends to 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 7% in Georgia in a simple H2H; stays at 7% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump ties in Michigan in a simple H2H; stays a tie with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 2% in Nevada in a simple H2H; extends to 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 6% in North Carolina in a simple H2H; stays at 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump ties in Pennsylvania in a simple H2H; becomes a 6% lead with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump trails by 1% in Wisconsin in a simple H2H; becomes a 2% lead with Kennedy's inclusion.

But, overall, these numbers are showing a trend back towards Biden from last month's poll, which is good news for him and to be expected after the State of the Union address.

Duty281

Posts : 32696
Join date : 2011-06-07
Age : 28
Location : I wouldn’t want to be faster or greener than now if you were with me; O you were the best of all my days

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by TRUSSMAN66 Tue Apr 02, 2024 9:36 pm

Probably be the most fluid election since Bush v Dukakis in 88........

Dukakis who was asked in a debate by the moderator about the death penalty (He was against it) Would he feel the same if his Wife was sexually assaulted and killed etc ?? Just answered matter of factly when instead he should have had a go at the Moron for asking such a tasteless question.

Never recovered.

TRUSSMAN66

Posts : 40524
Join date : 2011-02-02

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by TRUSSMAN66 Tue Apr 16, 2024 4:10 am

Michigan

Trump 51
Biden..46

Not good for Biden..........One poll has Trump up by 10 in Georgia.....

These results would bring Biden down to 274.......with the winner needing 271.......

With other possible states to get Trump over..

TRUSSMAN66

Posts : 40524
Join date : 2011-02-02

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by Duty281 Wed Apr 17, 2024 6:37 am

Polls are continuing to trend back towards Biden. Trump's average national polling lead on RCP was up at 2%, but is now down to 0.2%, although of course, as we know, he doesn't need to win the popular vote to win the Presidency. That lead does jump up to 1.8% when Kennedy is included.

Kennedy difficult to poll it seems. A couple of national polls putting him at 2/3%, but most putting him in double digits.

Trump still leading comfortably in the polls in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, as well as Florida/Ohio (both of which seem further away from the Democrats than usual), but Biden has the advantage in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Albeit Biden's advantage in Pennsylvania seems down to an outlier poll putting him 10% ahead. Wisconsin very tight. Michigan, Trump has the lead. Michigan might be the state that decides everything.

For now, narrow advantage Trump (293 on the EC), but Biden is the current mover in the polls, and a long way to go. Biden currently dealing with Iran, and Trump dealing with one of his many court cases (if they ever pick a jury).

Would also add, based on early evidence:

Key states where Kennedy is helping Trump = Georgia, Pennsylvania, Florida (? based on a solitary poll), North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada
Key states where Kennedy is helping Biden = Michigan, Wisconsin

Duty281

Posts : 32696
Join date : 2011-06-07
Age : 28
Location : I wouldn’t want to be faster or greener than now if you were with me; O you were the best of all my days

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by navyblueshorts Tue Apr 23, 2024 7:45 pm

Couple of interesting recent polls re. any so-called 'Kennedy Effect' and effects on Biden and Trump. Suggestions are that he's maybe hurting Trump more than Biden.

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/election-2024-april/

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-candidacy-hurts-trump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536
navyblueshorts
navyblueshorts
Moderator
Moderator

Posts : 11031
Join date : 2011-01-28
Location : Off with the pixies...

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by Duty281 Tue Apr 23, 2024 9:03 pm

Yes, those two polls are interesting, but they do tend to run against what most polling companies are finding. We'll see if that becomes an established trend. They are also finding quite a high level of Kennedy support.

I take Marist with a pinch of salt, because their polls tend to be much more favourable towards the Democrats than other polls (like Rasmussen with the Republicans). Marist had Biden's net approval at -6, for instance, when the average is -15.

Duty281

Posts : 32696
Join date : 2011-06-07
Age : 28
Location : I wouldn’t want to be faster or greener than now if you were with me; O you were the best of all my days

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by Duty281 Yesterday at 11:33 pm

Duty281 wrote:The monthly Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll showing the Kennedy factor; his presence, on the below numbers, allowing Trump to win 29 electoral college votes and extend his advantage in two other states offering a combined 17 electoral college votes.

Trump leads by 5% in Arizona in a simple H2H; extends to 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 7% in Georgia in a simple H2H; stays at 7% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump ties in Michigan in a simple H2H; stays a tie with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 2% in Nevada in a simple H2H; extends to 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump leads by 6% in North Carolina in a simple H2H; stays at 6% with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump ties in Pennsylvania in a simple H2H; becomes a 6% lead with Kennedy's inclusion.
Trump trails by 1% in Wisconsin in a simple H2H; becomes a 2% lead with Kennedy's inclusion.

But, overall, these numbers are showing a trend back towards Biden from last month's poll, which is good news for him and to be expected after the State of the Union address.

This month....

Trump leads by 7% in Arizona in a simple H2H; decreased to a 6% lead with Kennedy's inclusion (no change).
Trump leads by 6% in Georgia in a simple H2H; extends to 8% with Kennedy's inclusion (+1 for Trump).
Trump trails in Michigan by 2% in a simple H2H; trail extends to 3% with Kennedy's inclusion (-3 for Trump).
Trump leads by 8% in Nevada in a simple H2H; extends to 14% (!!!!!) with Kennedy's inclusion (+8 for Trump).
Trump leads by 10% in North Carolina in a simple H2H; stays at 10% with Kennedy's inclusion (+4 for Trump).
Trump leads by 1% in Pennsylvania in a simple H2H; stays a 1% lead with Kennedy's inclusion (-5 for Trump).
Trump leads by 4% in Wisconsin in a simple H2H; decreases to a 3% lead with Kennedy's inclusion (+1 for Trump).

So the polling is a bit wild, fair to say. Bloomberg is reporting it as Biden's polling bump largely vanishing, which is only true if you look at the simple H2Hs. If you look at with Kennedy included, and while he stays in the race you must look at it that way, it's really not bad polling for Biden, with Michigan going blue and Pennsylvania now a lot closer. Trump has extended his advantage, big league, in Nevada, though that's the only real change in his favour.

Trump wins 297-241 on this polling either way, but Biden would only need to flip Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to win 270-268.

Perhaps most concerningly for Biden, most swing state voters polled are pessimistic about the state of the economy, although abortion is becoming a bigger issue and this is one where Biden has the advantage.

Duty281

Posts : 32696
Join date : 2011-06-07
Age : 28
Location : I wouldn’t want to be faster or greener than now if you were with me; O you were the best of all my days

Pal Joey likes this post

Back to top Go down

2024 US Presidential Election - Page 11 Empty Re: 2024 US Presidential Election

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 11 of 11 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum