1st RWC 2023 semi-final Argentina v New Zealand

I think we assume that the final now is NZ v SA but can anyone make a case for Argentina? Unable to beat 14 man England I am struggling to do so after the Ireland performance. Maybe we should just fast forward 2 weeks?

Argentina are 33/1 to win the RWC, which highlights what a mammoth undertaking it would be. Best of luck to 'em.

Same with Eng v SA and Argies main hope lies in the difficulty of NZ raising themselves to such heights again post Ireland. Their intensity is bound to be lower. So maybe a duller and lower quality match which NZ still win.

Last year, Ian Foster's job was on the line and the All Blacks won a test match at Ellis Park that no one thought they would. Their opponent in the next test was the Pumas, in which they were heavy favourites, and they lost. That's exactly the same scenario we have on our hands this week.
No one’s taking anything for granted.
Interesting that NZ beating Ireland ended the worst two years in All Black history, coinciding with Irelands best two years in Irish rugby history.

Duty281 wrote:Argentina are 33/1 to win the RWC, which highlights what a mammoth undertaking it would be. Best of luck to 'em.

Imagine they made it to the final of the football and rugby world cups, that would unreal.

Taylorman wrote:Last year, Ian Foster's job was on the line and the All Blacks won a test match at Ellis Park that no one thought they would. Their opponent in the next test was the Pumas, in which they were heavy favourites, and they lost. That's exactly the same scenario we have on our hands this week.
No one’s taking anything for granted.
Interesting that NZ beating Ireland ended the worst two years in All Black history, coinciding with Irelands best two years in Irish rugby history.

Well Ireland ended NZs 18 match winning streak so I guess you owed us that one.

Both NZ and Argentina look very different teams to how they were at the start of the tournament.

Argentina don't even have that bad a record against the Blacks.

Even so, the only way I am seeing NZ getting turned over is if they turn up with a large dollop of complacency about them, thinking that playing Ireland was their final and that they only need to turn up to beat the Argies.

That, I would hasten to say, seems very far fetched and extremely unlikely. Indeed it may be more likely that Argentina having made the semis, feel they have massively over achieved and don't really feel they need to win this match.

33/1 is good odds in a two horse race and probably worth a couple of quid. I would not be putting the mortgage on it though!

Collapse2005 wrote:

Taylorman wrote:Last year, Ian Foster's job was on the line and the All Blacks won a test match at Ellis Park that no one thought they would. Their opponent in the next test was the Pumas, in which they were heavy favourites, and they lost. That's exactly the same scenario we have on our hands this week.
No one’s taking anything for granted.
Interesting that NZ beating Ireland ended the worst two years in All Black history, coinciding with Irelands best two years in Irish rugby history.

Well Ireland ended NZs 18 match winning streak so I guess you owed us that one.

was a surprise to be honest. The one big problem with streaks and the ABs have had two or three like it since Henry, is the resolve to keep winning is almost manufactured. If no ones pressuring them enough to lose what are the learning points?.

Irelands improvement could only be in 'tweaks'- they cant risk changing anything too great because then they would be forsaking a winning formula.

Whereas the AB's had resolve for the France loss, revenge for the Irish series loss. You simply cant buy that as a team thats not used to losing.

Imagine the resolve and discussion that would be swirling the Irish changing rooms after that loss for their next test if a week later?

Massively different. Hurt souls, memories, a need to redeem themselves. AB's had that, the Irish didnt. For me thats the biggest single reason Ireland lost. The ABs have got to be the worst side in sport to keep hearing they're going to lose all week.

I’ve noticed that SH teams, especially the ABs and the Boks, often use the 18 months running up the the RWC to try new things and attempt to plug their weaknesses. Eddie does the same thing but in more dramatic fashion - he sticks with a squad until it has a crisis of form and then rebuilds. Ireland and France had systems that were working and kept building on them, but that is always vulnerable to a team that has had time to work out how to counter it.

For me, the critical move for the All Blacks was putting Jordie Barrett at 12, allowing Beauden and Mo’unga to be on the pitch at the same time. The backline has really started to gel since that point.

Match officials: Angus Gardner with Nic Berry and Karl Dickson. Ben Whitehouse TMO.

Taylorman wrote:Last year, Ian Foster's job was on the line and the All Blacks won a test match at Ellis Park that no one thought they would. Their opponent in the next test was the Pumas, in which they were heavy favourites, and they lost. That's exactly the same scenario we have on our hands this week.
No one’s taking anything for granted.
Interesting that NZ beating Ireland ended the worst two years in All Black history, coinciding with Irelands best two years in Irish rugby history.

Argentina were playing well then though and looked to be on a great trajectory.

They've been absolutely woeful so far in this world cup. The way they even struggled to beat an out of form Japanese side to just make the QFs was alarming. This would be one of the biggest upsets in world cup history, if Argentina win.

Poorfour wrote:I’ve noticed that SH teams, especially the ABs and the Boks, often use the 18 months running up the the RWC to try new things and attempt to plug their weaknesses. Eddie does the same thing but in more dramatic fashion - he sticks with a squad until it has a crisis of form and then rebuilds. Ireland and France had systems that were working and kept building on them, but that is always vulnerable to a team that has had time to work out how to counter it.

For me, the critical move for the All Blacks was putting Jordie Barrett at 12, allowing Beauden and Mo’unga to be on the pitch at the same time. The backline has really started to gel since that point.

For me, this is where the Lions screws things up for us a bit. Yes, it sounds like excuse making. But we don't get a full 4 year cycle like others do. We get our players taken away and put into a different environment, different coaches, different patterns and plays, etc. 2 years out, when most other teams are half way through a straight 4 year cycle. I love the Lions but I feel it does get in the way of a good 4 year WC cycle!

Id agree, I dont think the Lions helps the 4 countries involved while its massive for the SANZAR sides. Ireland always have players coming back half crocked, Furlong hasnt been the same since SA, Murray came back from NZ with a Jeremy Beadle arm. I wish the Ireland side would pull out.

Collapse2005 wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Argentina are 33/1 to win the RWC, which highlights what a mammoth undertaking it would be. Best of luck to 'em.

Imagine they made it to the final of the football and rugby world cups, that would unreal.

Football? What's that?

Collapse2005 wrote:Id agree, I dont think the Lions helps the 4 countries involved while its massive for the SANZAR sides. Ireland always have players coming back half crocked, Furlong hasnt been the same since SA, Murray came back from NZ with a Jeremy Beadle arm. I wish the Ireland side would pull out.

Good point, Furlong went from being the best TH in the world to middle of the pack after that.

I feel as though the Lions is now there to just line the pockets of Sanzaar nations and a few British "big wigs". The thoughts of the Lions touring a nation that is 9th in the world is comical. Time for us to move on.

Yeah well said

Yep. I’ve always been a huge Lions fan. Huge. But it’s getting to be more and more a distraction/conflict that I think the B&I players and national teams could do without. Think that’s just natural the further into professionalism we get: An increasingly crowded calendar, bigger players with more wear and tear from bigger hits so fewer games needed, higher stakes with so much riding on international success ($), etc. Plus this new world rugby thing happening every 2 years (Lions years???)(Edit: Ignore me, it’s in place of the AIs every year).

Would just love to see what we can do in B&I with a clean 4 year run. Probably nothing!  But I’m interested to see

They certainly milked the last two Lions tours, players looked knackered. They need a re-think about the fixture list but you know, lots of money to be made for all those involved.

Arg have beaten NZ twice in fairly recent times. They seem like they are gradually improving, so I doubt they will just roll over. On the occasions they beat the All Blacks, Matera and Kremer were massive but Matera is out now. I think the ABs will win by at least 10.

Hoping for a close contest, but can see NZ winning by 20+

Argentina certainly made a good start

Boffelli got utterly clattered there

NZ all the way I reckon, Argentina won't be able to contain them.

First of many.

Probably a bit lucky not to get done for obstruction on the line out?

Yes, Argentina look under the pump now

They concede the score and lucky not to have a man in the bin.

Looks a bit ominous

No luck there. Highlighting early the sides of the wc draw.

This game may be over and done with

Argentina can't live with them

There are many areas of this ABs side where they aren't as good as the great sides we've seen recently. They're brilliant in attack though. The two former back three players in the midfield run support lines that most centres don't. Then they have near enough 5 playmakers across the backline once you add in how they can play off Smith and Jordan being able to step in at first receiver. So much pace and so many distributors to find space for them. It's lethal when they have half a chance.

Lots of phases for Argentina, but all very blunt and tame. They do look more structured than against Wales. And no problem for NZ at the other end.

We had a great weekend of QF rugby, but this weekend of SF rugby was effectively sacrificed for it.

Gardner is an awful ref, expect him to give Argentina nothing.

I can't help but agree with Montoya there and understand the frustration. We've already seen jackals with less clear release than that rewarded tonight.

NZ are going to blow them away I'm afraid, it's on the cards in first 20 mins. Argentina go through phases, don't really penetrate and either lose ball or get penalised. NZ just waiting for right chance and they'll go. Argentina look tired already.

Argentina can be aggrieved having just been pinged for taking a player beyond the ruck to then have NZ do the same thing and get ignored ...

Can we get some officials who can make their mind up?

Heaf wrote:Argentina can be aggrieved having just been pinged for taking a player beyond the ruck to then have NZ do the same thing and get ignored ...

Exactly

Michael Cheika rocking the MP who's been photographed leaving his mistresses house look perfectly. Boris would be proud.

Argentina never looked like a semi final team right from the start of the tournament unfortunately.

Going to need a miracle now

king_carlos wrote:I can't help but agree with Montoya there and understand the frustration. We've already seen jackals with less clear release than that rewarded tonight.

Whatever about disagreeing with a ref's interpretation of the rules is it too much to ask for consistency within a match? It's not like NZ need help

Gardner being a dick as well as making questionable dickish calls.

Collapse2005 wrote:Gardner is an awful ref, expect him to give Argentina nothing.

I'm not really sure how Gardner and O'Keefe got the two semi finals. It's not like if you were listing the best refs available those two would feature in the top two or three is it.

king_carlos wrote:Michael Cheika rocking the MP who's been photographed leaving his mistresses house look perfectly. Boris would be proud.

Looked like he went to get down to the tunnel quick to have a natter with Gardner

Game. Over.

Sam Cane clear out way way beyond the ball

Biggest win in a RWC semi-final is 43 points, when NZ beat Wales 49-6 all the way back in 1987.

New Zealand a few tries away from breaking that record.

Duty281 wrote:Biggest win in a RWC semi-final is 43 points, when NZ beat Wales 49-6 all the way back in 1987.

New Zealand a few tries away from breaking that record.

The athleticism, intensity, and skill levels in international rugby are greater than ever.
And yet the results have arguably never been so one-sided, and upsets rarer than hens teeth.

God Gardner is useless, hand in the ruck right in front of him. World class at noticing every Argentina infringement though.

Mcsweens wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Biggest win in a RWC semi-final is 43 points, when NZ beat Wales 49-6 all the way back in 1987.

New Zealand a few tries away from breaking that record.

The athleticism, intensity, and skill levels in international rugby are greater than ever.
And yet the results have arguably never been so one-sided, and upsets rarer than hens teeth.

Would be extremely ambitious to think this game could be one of those upsets to be fair. I did say earlier in the thread that an ARG win here would be one of the biggest upsets in world cup history. Argentina have been awful in the world cup, they are here due to the quirk in the draw.

LeinsterFan4life wrote:

Mcsweens wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Biggest win in a RWC semi-final is 43 points, when NZ beat Wales 49-6 all the way back in 1987.

New Zealand a few tries away from breaking that record.

The athleticism, intensity, and skill levels in international rugby are greater than ever.
And yet the results have arguably never been so one-sided, and upsets rarer than hens teeth.

Would be extremely ambitious to think this game could be one of those upsets to be fair. I did say earlier in the thread that an ARG win here would be one of the biggest upsets in world cup history. Argentina have been awful in the world cup, they are here due to the quirk in the draw.

On the other hand, it's not too much to ask to have something other than a procession. This is a total dicking from NZ, and from Gardner.

FFS, that Barrett yellow was literally right in front of Gardner there.

Mcsweens wrote:

LeinsterFan4life wrote:

Mcsweens wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Biggest win in a RWC semi-final is 43 points, when NZ beat Wales 49-6 all the way back in 1987.

New Zealand a few tries away from breaking that record.

The athleticism, intensity, and skill levels in international rugby are greater than ever.
And yet the results have arguably never been so one-sided, and upsets rarer than hens teeth.

Would be extremely ambitious to think this game could be one of those upsets to be fair. I did say earlier in the thread that an ARG win here would be one of the biggest upsets in world cup history. Argentina have been awful in the world cup, they are here due to the quirk in the draw.

On the other hand, it's not too much to ask to have something other than a procession. This is a total dicking from NZ, and from Gardner.

That's rugby unfortunately, it's totally unforgiving. You can't just stick 11 men behind the ball, defend for 90 mins and scrape a lucky goal from a set piece. We were lucky that there were 4 genuine contenders for this one, usually NZ is completely dominant coming into world cups.