Andy Should Start Heavy favorite for Wimbledon

by invisiblecoolers Fri 14 Jun 2013, 5:00 pm

Andy Should Start Heavy favorite for Wimbledon, he is playing stunning tennis at the moment, might get ousted himself in queens early but in 5 sets he will be very difficult to overcome, compare to his other predators like Djokovic and Nadal, Murray is a natural mover on grass, with Federer not at his best and going older Murray with home support might make the British dream of a Wimbledon single title come true.

His two matches on 1 day was very impressive eventhough one of the matches against Mahut went for a tie breaker.

Murray looks in great shape, well toned with full of rested muscles gearing for a big go, if Murray could avoid Rafa early on then there is every bit of chance for him to go deep for the title.

Murray would ideally love Ferrer on his side of the draw and the top half be packed like Djoko - Federer semi and Djoko -Rafa quarters.
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Edited - To include Grass Court Metrix

I didn't open a thread trying to windup someone, when I said Andy is the favorite , not sure how many know this, Andy has the best stats for grass among current player ahead of Rafa and Djoko and only behind the the GOAT.

Lets look into the stats

Player Win/Loss Career Index Current Index

1]Roger Federer 121-17 .877 .941
7]Andy Murray 66-14 .825 .944
9]Rafael Nadal 50-12 .806 .500 [no Idea where this current Metrix came from, Davis cup? or may be last years included as well]
16]Leyton Hewitt 115-34 .772 .714
17]Novak Djokovic 47-14 .770 .750

Note: The number next to the name indicate the career position among all time modern era players, I am surprised to see Andy on list 7 eventhough I see him as a very good grass court player.

Considering Roger's form, I give the favorite tag to Andy, I place him as heavy favourite if Rafa is drawn on Nole's half and I presumed that will be the case and hoping for a Nole-Rafa quarters, not sure how many believe that would happen, Wimbledon quarters Nole-Rafa , you saw here first. censored

by CaledonianCraig Fri 14 Jun 2013, 5:25 pm

I can't agree about the heavy favourite bit. Bearing in mind current form (in the here and now) I would put Nadal as favourite over Djokovic and Murray and then Federer.

by invisiblecoolers Fri 14 Jun 2013, 5:30 pm

May be you are trying to do a Red by down playing his chances, I would say the favourite in the following order
1]Andy Murray
2]Rafael Nadal
3]Novak Djokovic
4]Roger Federer
5]Del Potro
6]David Ferrer.

CaledonianCraig wrote:I can't agree about the heavy favourite bit. Bearing in mind current form (in the here and now) I would put Nadal as favourite over Djokovic and Murray and then Federer.

by CaledonianCraig Fri 14 Jun 2013, 5:35 pm

invisiblecoolers wrote:May be you are trying to do a Red by down playing his chances, I would say the favourite in the following order
1]Andy Murray
2]Rafael Nadal
3]Novak Djokovic
4]Roger Federer
5]Del Potro
6]David Ferrer.
CaledonianCraig wrote:I can't agree about the heavy favourite bit. Bearing in mind current form (in the here and now) I would put Nadal as favourite over Djokovic and Murray and then Federer.

I do see what you are saying but the point that has been laboured a heck of a lot on here and has its merits lead me to make Nadal favourite. Andy has a very poor record against Nadal and that has to be a worry. Now I know Murray has improved under Lendl, has better self-belief and is now a slam winner (since last playing Nadal in a slam match) but that counts for nothing until Andy beats Rafa. That is chiefly why I put Nadal as favourite.

by LuvSports! Fri 14 Jun 2013, 5:47 pm

bull.

by invisiblecoolers Fri 14 Jun 2013, 5:55 pm

More or less agree with you, Rafa is a heavy favourite as well, and if Murray could avoid Rafa early and if there is a quarters meeting between Djoko and Rafa, Murray will fancy his chances quite high. Very Happy

CaledonianCraig wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:May be you are trying to do a Red by down playing his chances, I would say the favourite in the following order
1]Andy Murray
2]Rafael Nadal
3]Novak Djokovic
4]Roger Federer
5]Del Potro
6]David Ferrer.
CaledonianCraig wrote:I can't agree about the heavy favourite bit. Bearing in mind current form (in the here and now) I would put Nadal as favourite over Djokovic and Murray and then Federer.
I do see what you are saying but the point that has been laboured a heck of a lot on here and has its merits lead me to make Nadal favourite. Andy has a very poor record against Nadal and that has to be a worry. Now I know Murray has improved under Lendl, has better self-belief and is now a slam winner (since last playing Nadal in a slam match) but that counts for nothing until Andy beats Rafa. That is chiefly why I put Nadal as favourite.

by invisiblecoolers Fri 14 Jun 2013, 5:56 pm

@ LS

Bulls in the sense Rafa or Bulls? Very Happy

by banbrotam Fri 14 Jun 2013, 7:01 pm

Have to play a bit better than he did today Wink

For once though, I disagree with CC - I actually think that it's so long ago that Murray played Nadal and their last set was 6-0 to Murray, that it's rather pointless

We can't keep going on he records of players - otherwise Fed would never have beaten Henman or Nalbandian. We have to evaluate the current situation and Andy's comfortably superior to 2 years ago - he basically has been improving every year.

Has Rafa?

Andy, quite rightly based on the recent form of others, questions of others and his great form of last summer is fair game to be a slight favourite - but it can never be more than that

by User 774433 Fri 14 Jun 2013, 7:06 pm

Well Andy's hardly been in great form at the minute- but that's understandable as he was struggling with injury throughout the clay season and is now settling into the grass.
Federer in Halle was more impressive than Murray in Queens, so far.

As for last summer, he wasn't actually that great at Wimbledon. Lost the first set and battled out of a scrap against Ferrer in the QF, played pretty well in the SF against Tsonga (still dropping a set), and then getting soundly beaten by Federer in the finals.

For me his form has to be close to what it was during the Olympics and USO to have a chance here.

by User 774433 Fri 14 Jun 2013, 7:06 pm

Banb I don't know why you keep going on about recent form, what exactly has Murray done that's so great recently.

by User 774433 Fri 14 Jun 2013, 7:08 pm

banbrotam wrote:We have to evaluate the current situation and Andy's comfortably superior to 2 years ago - he basically has been improving every year.

Has he? What improvements has he made from 2012 to 2013 exactly?

by CaledonianCraig Fri 14 Jun 2013, 7:13 pm

banbrotam wrote:Have to play a bit better than he did today

For once though, I disagree with CC - I actually think that it's so long ago that Murray played Nadal and their last set was 6-0 to Murray, that it's rather pointless

We can't keep going on he records of players - otherwise Fed would never have beaten Henman or Nalbandian. We have to evaluate the current situation and Andy's comfortably superior to 2 years ago - he basically has been improving every year.

Has Rafa?

Andy, quite rightly based on the recent form of others, questions of others and his great form of last summer is fair game to be a slight favourite - but it can never be more than that

Until we see Murray (the improved version since Lendl became his coach) play Rafael Nadal we have nothing to go on but hope and suspicions and opinions. Now for now I have to go on previous head-to-head form and Nadal is big boss in their previous meetings. That is a fact that cannot be escaped. The new Murray MAY now be better equipped to face and beat Nadal but I cannot be certain of that until I see it.

by User 774433 Fri 14 Jun 2013, 7:17 pm

After Jan 2010 I haven't really seen Murray troubling Nadal in slams.
It's all well and good thrashing Nadal in AT250s, let's see if he can beat Nadal in a slam.

He will have the home crowd behind him on a surface he likes, so he will have no excuses not to bring his top game to Rafa.

by _homogenised_ Fri 14 Jun 2013, 7:40 pm

There is no way that Murray is in the same league as Djok (multiple slam winner and wn1), or even old Federer on grass (winner of 7 and defending champ). He has to be 3rd favourite. If he wins Wimbledon this year, I am a banana. Bookmarking this will be a waste of time, because he won't win it. I have no clue why some of you are placing Nadal above Djok either. Djokovic pushed Nadal to an inch of his life on his favourite surface... what makes you think Nadal can beat Djokovic on grass this year??

by User 774433 Fri 14 Jun 2013, 7:50 pm

The last time Murray played Federer on grass, Murray won. Same with Djoko.

by Gerry SA Fri 14 Jun 2013, 7:59 pm

_homogenised_There is no way that Murray is in the same league as Djok (multiple slam winner and wn1), or even old Federer on grass (winner of 7 and defending champ). He has to be 3rd favourite. If he wins Wimbledon this year, I am a banana. Bookmarking this will be a waste of time, because he won't win it. I have no clue why some of you are placing Nadal above Djok either. Djokovic pushed Nadal to an inch of his life on his favourite surface... what makes you think Nadal can beat Djokovic on grass this year??

Nadal has reached 5 Wimbledon finals

Djokovic has reached one and has never looked like dominating on grass.

Nadal and Murray are bigger favourites than Djokovic for 2013 Wimbledon.

by Haddie-nuff Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:24 pm

Gerry SA wrote:_homogenised_There is no way that Murray is in the same league as Djok (multiple slam winner and wn1), or even old Federer on grass (winner of 7 and defending champ). He has to be 3rd favourite. If he wins Wimbledon this year, I am a banana. Bookmarking this will be a waste of time, because he won't win it. I have no clue why some of you are placing Nadal above Djok either. Djokovic pushed Nadal to an inch of his life on his favourite surface... what makes you think Nadal can beat Djokovic on grass this year??

Nadal has reached 5 Wimbledon finals

Djokovic has reached one and has never looked like dominating on grass.

Nadal and Murray are bigger favourites than Djokovic for 2013 Wimbledon.

Not forgettting that Rafa won two of them so yes he has to be favoured over Novak
Murray is there with a fighting chance

The seedings are going to be very significant in this years Wimbledon. and will play a huge part in the final outcome.. there is no front runner this year imo

by lydian Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:24 pm

_homogenised_ wrote:Djokovic pushed Nadal to an inch of his life on his favourite surface... what makes you think Nadal can beat Djokovic on grass this year??

I don't understand why you have such a downer on Nadal, if you don't like his style of play then fair enough but it seems to colour your judgement too much. Djokovic pushed Nadal as you so poetically put it "to within an inch of his life" at Madrid 2009. So what? Nadal has always struggled with Djokovic, like he did at Hamburg 2006...it's not new news. But who has the better pedigree on grass? Djokovic has been in 1 final at Wimbledon (won) and 1 final at Queens (lost). It's nowhere near Nadal's grass record of 5 Wimb finals (2 won) and 1 Queens (won). The answer is why can't Nadal beat Djokovic on grass? IMO Nadal's game is better suited to grass. But it's marginal I'll grant you...it always has been between them.

Anyway, I don't see Murray as a clear favourite. It's very close this year, none stand out for me. Could be the most open its been for a while actually.

by CaledonianCraig Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:26 pm

I can't disagree with any of that lydian. Pretty much spot on.

by lydian Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:28 pm

by Danny_1982 Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:31 pm

Of course Murray is better than 2011. Surely nobody here disputes that? Forehand, first serve, aggression on first shot after serve, closer to the baseline... Taking the initiative more... Massive steps for him.

How would he get on against Rafa? God knows! The last time they played Murray was not US open champion, Olympic champion, had never beaten Novak or Roger in a slam... He's a different man!

Will the improvements, renewed belief and better mentality turn the rivalry around? No idea. Rafa is a great player (and my Wimbledon favourite) so it's no forgone conclusion.

It will for sure make it a fascinating match though.

by User 774433 Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:33 pm

Agree Danny thumbsup

by summerblues Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:36 pm

Nole and Rafa are co-favorites for me (Nadal probably better on the surface overall but Nole probably having a better than 50% chance should they meet).

Then Andy a bit behind (to me his form looks not quite as good as last year, otherwise he could also be up there).

Then Roger another bit behind Andy (with Roger being sort of bipolar - if he somehow discovers form he could also be up there around the very top but if he continues to struggle he could perhaps even go out early).

But I agree that all four are quite close.

by User 774433 Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:37 pm

It's sort of weird, but as a Nadal fan I would actually want Murray in the quarter finals.

by Danny_1982 Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:41 pm

All 4 are close. You could make a convincing case for all 4 being favourite. I just edge Rafa because of the momentum he'll have got from the last few months. Yes, on clay... But still helps.

All 4 can beat each other on grass (roger may need the zip the roof adds to the court to beat Rafa though) so a lot comes down to the draw and who brings it when it matters most.

There's a sheet of paper between them... And it makes it fascinating.

by lydian Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:44 pm

Grass like clay, being natural surfaces, changes character with the weather...the forecast could be key to who gets a slight edge on the day. It'll soon be time to start looking at the 10-15 day forecasts.

by Danny_1982 Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:45 pm

Red - if Rafa had to choose his QF opponent he'd go for Roger on a hot dry day, surely?

by User 774433 Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:48 pm

Danny_1982 wrote:Red - if Rafa had to choose his QF opponent he'd go for Roger on a hot dry day, surely?

No, I don't think he would.
If he had Roger in the QF, he could still have Djokovic in the semis.
That's why I think he'd prefer Murray in the QF, it guarantees Ferrer (or if someone seeded lower beats him) in the SF if he gets there. And then Roger could knock Nole out, and I'd think we'd all love another Roger-Rafa Wimbledon final.

I'm getting a bit ahead of myself though, Andy will probably rumble Rafa.

by _homogenised_ Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:52 pm

lydian wrote:
_homogenised_ wrote:Djokovic pushed Nadal to an inch of his life on his favourite surface... what makes you think Nadal can beat Djokovic on grass this year??
I don't understand why you have such a downer on Nadal, if you don't like his style of play then fair enough but it seems to colour your judgement too much. Djokovic pushed Nadal as you so poetically put it "to within an inch of his life" at Madrid 2009. So what? Nadal has always struggled with Djokovic, like he did at Hamburg 2006...it's not new news. But who has the better pedigree on grass? Djokovic has been in 1 final at Wimbledon (won) and 1 final at Queens (lost). It's nowhere near Nadal's grass record of 5 Wimb finals (2 won) and 1 Queens (won). The answer is why can't Nadal beat Djokovic on grass? IMO Nadal's game is better suited to grass. But it's marginal I'll grant you...it always has been between them.

Anyway, I don't see Murray as a clear favourite. It's very close this year, none stand out for me. Could be the most open its been for a while actually.

Which part of what I said was knocking Nadal? I asked a question.

by _homogenised_ Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:54 pm

Red wrote:The last time Murray played Federer on grass, Murray won. Same with Djoko.

You mean that time after he had played del pot in a mammoth 3 setter? I am talking about Slam record here. Guess who defending champ is?

by User 774433 Fri 14 Jun 2013, 8:58 pm

_homogenised_ wrote:
Red wrote:The last time Murray played Federer on grass, Murray won. Same with Djoko.

You mean that time after he had played del pot in a mammoth 3 setter? I am talking about Slam record here. Guess who defending champ is?

Tomas Berdych?

by time please Fri 14 Jun 2013, 11:31 pm

I would love to think Murray would win this Wimbledon but I think at this stage, before we see whether a draw might be kind or not, I would not have him as favourite to make the final, let alone triumph there.

Hope to be proved wrong though Very Happy

by ryan86 Sat 15 Jun 2013, 12:00 am

If you were to ask me I'd have

1) Murray - Olympic Champion and runner-up last year. Tomorrow against Tsonga will give us a very good idea.
2) Djokovic - I don't think he's as good as Federer or Murray on grass, but is currently playing at a higher level than Roger overall, so squeezes it just.
3) Federer - Like Murray, reached the two finals last year, but he has slipped this year and so I do wonder exactly what he can achieve.
4) Tsonga - has a decent pedigree on grass with a number of semis.
5) Nadal - maybe harsh, but there's too many questions. He lost last year in R2, his health, his seeding.
6) Ferrer - will always make it tough, but probably will eventually be overpowered in the Quarters or Semis.
7) Haas - good on grass, SF in 2009, but I think he'd eventually lose over 5 sets to the top guys.
8) Berdych - Has reached a final here, but it was pretty Poopie on the two attempts at Wimbledon last year and today against Cilic, mmm.
9) del Potro - Olympic bronze medallist, but I suspect a he'll be out before the quarters.
10) Dan Evans - Grass great!

by invisiblecoolers Sat 15 Jun 2013, 12:48 am

Gerry SA wrote:_homogenised_There is no way that Murray is in the same league as Djok (multiple slam winner and wn1), or even old Federer on grass (winner of 7 and defending champ). He has to be 3rd favourite. If he wins Wimbledon this year, I am a banana. Bookmarking this will be a waste of time, because he won't win it. I have no clue why some of you are placing Nadal above Djok either. Djokovic pushed Nadal to an inch of his life on his favourite surface... what makes you think Nadal can beat Djokovic on grass this year??

Nadal has reached 5 Wimbledon finals

Djokovic has reached one and has never looked like dominating on grass.

Nadal and Murray are bigger favourites than Djokovic for 2013 Wimbledon.

U saved my time with this explanations Gerry, btw to mods and Admins the new quote system is irritating, can we have it reverted back to old one pls.

by invisiblecoolers Sat 15 Jun 2013, 12:51 am

By IC

by User 774433 Sat 15 Jun 2013, 12:51 am

IC- when quoting, try pressing the 'switch editor mode' button above the textbox.

by invisiblecoolers Sat 15 Jun 2013, 12:51 am

By IC

@ Red
RedIt's sort of weird, but as a Nadal fan I would actually want Murray in the quarter finals.

by User 774433 Sat 15 Jun 2013, 12:52 am

Has anyone seen Berdych's tweets in the last week or so? Laugh

He's probably an even bigger Nadal fanboy than me, what a guy.

by User 774433 Sat 15 Jun 2013, 12:53 am

invisiblecoolers wrote:By IC

@ Red
RedIt's sort of weird, but as a Nadal fan I would actually want Murray in the quarter finals.

I would, as it then guarantees that if Nadal does get through, he won't face either Djokovic or Fed in the semis.

by invisiblecoolers Sat 15 Jun 2013, 12:54 am

Red wrote:IC- when quoting, try pressing the 'switch editor mode' button above the textbox.

Thx Red, appreciated thumbsup

by ryan86 Sat 15 Jun 2013, 1:21 am

Red wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:By IC

@ Red
RedIt's sort of weird, but as a Nadal fan I would actually want Murray in the quarter finals.
I would, as it then guarantees that if Nadal does get through, he won't face either Djokovic or Fed in the semis.

It guarantees he won't face Djokovic, but he could still get Federer.f

by User 774433 Sat 15 Jun 2013, 1:25 am

ryan86 wrote:
Red wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:By IC

@ Red
RedIt's sort of weird, but as a Nadal fan I would actually want Murray in the quarter finals.
I would, as it then guarantees that if Nadal does get through, he won't face either Djokovic or Fed in the semis.
It guarantees he won't face Djokovic, but he could still get Federer.

Ah yes, my bad.

by lydian Sat 15 Jun 2013, 8:38 am

Hate that expression...lol.

by hawkeye Sat 15 Jun 2013, 9:14 am

Of course Andy will start as a heavy favorite for Wimbledon. Doesn't he always? The bookies must love him.

by break_in_the_fifth Sat 15 Jun 2013, 9:57 am

hawkeye wrote:Of course Andy will start as a heavy favorite for Wimbledon. Doesn't he always? The bookies must love him.

Not as much as you do. Remember it's not a question of if Murray wins a slam but when.

by lags72 Sat 15 Jun 2013, 10:16 am

Not surprisingly the two big boys in UK betting - William Hill and Ladbrokes - don't see much hope for anyone other the customary four names, so to make any serious money you would have to go for an outsider

Both have Djokovic as favourite at 15/8

After that it's

Murray 5/2 or 3/1 ; with Nadal close at 11/4 or 3/1
Federer is 9/2 at WH but a more generous - and perhaps more realistic - 6/1 at Ladbrokes

Big gap then to Tsonga at 16/1 and beyond him you're looking at pretty long odds ......

by JubbaIsle Sat 15 Jun 2013, 2:04 pm

One of but not heavy favourite, thats a rather optimistic and lighthearted view imo. Sure he's got the game and potential to do every one damage, but Nadal is playing the best tennis of all the top 5 players, Djokovic is in limbo, but he could reignite at wimbledon, and as we all know Federer is not finished, but he could make the final or go out in the 4th round. Murray is consistently good, but Nadal is improving all the time, we shall have to see if he has peaked or is going to flatten out in two weeks time, but for me, its a toss up between the real, viable top 3....

Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, (in that order or preference if my money was on the table)

by Guest Sat 15 Jun 2013, 2:18 pm

JubbaIsle wrote:One of but not heavy favourite, thats a rather optimistic and lighthearted view imo. Sure he's got the game and potential to do every one damage, but Nadal is playing the best tennis of all the top 5 players, Djokovic is in limbo, but he could reignite at wimbledon, and as we all know Federer is not finished, but he could make the final or go out in the quarter final. Murray is consistently good, but Nadal is improving all the time, we shall have to see if he has peaked or is going to flatten out in two weeks time, but for me, its a toss up between the real, viable top 3....

Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, (in that order or preference if my money was on the table)

There corrected. As we all know Federerer neverer loses beforer the quarterer warning

emancipator

by JubbaIsle Sat 15 Jun 2013, 2:26 pm

Splitting the hair of statistics emancipator ? how very dare you !

Federer could go out in the 1st or 2nd round, such is his volatility but I don't expect it in reality. I've not written him off, but Roger is in a strange quandary atm, I think this is his the surface that gets the best out of him, couple that with his support and his history at Wimbledon, I'd even go as far as to say he could win it, if he plays the game he can. But its much more of an outside chance now than it ever was.

by Guest Sat 15 Jun 2013, 2:28 pm

Yeah totally agree.

On current form I see Fed struggling into the quarters and then losing rather lamely to someone there.

If he could re-capture some proper form he could still be a threat. Unfortunately I don't think you can just turn it on and off at this age.

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