Andy Should Start Heavy favorite for Wimbledon

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Andy Should Start Heavy favorite for Wimbledon, he is playing stunning tennis at the moment, might get ousted himself in queens early but in 5 sets he will be very difficult to overcome, compare to his other predators like Djokovic and Nadal, Murray is a natural mover on grass, with Federer not at his best and going older Murray with home support might make the British dream of a Wimbledon single title come true.

His two matches on 1 day was very impressive eventhough one of the matches against Mahut went for a tie breaker.

Murray looks in great shape, well toned with full of rested muscles gearing for a big go, if Murray could avoid Rafa early on then there is every bit of chance for him to go deep for the title.

Murray would ideally love Ferrer on his side of the draw and the top half be packed like Djoko - Federer semi and Djoko -Rafa quarters.
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Edited - To include Grass Court Metrix

I didn't open a thread trying to windup someone, when I said Andy is the favorite , not sure how many know this, Andy has the best stats for grass among current player ahead of Rafa and Djoko and only behind the the GOAT.

Lets look into  the stats

Player          Win/Loss  Career Index  Current Index

1]Roger Federer     121-17       .877              .941
7]Andy Murray       66-14        .825              .944
9]Rafael Nadal       50-12        .806              .500  [no Idea where this current Metrix came from, Davis cup? or may be last years included as well]
16]Leyton Hewitt   115-34       .772             .714
17]Novak Djokovic  47-14        .770              .750

Note: The number next to the name indicate the career position among all time modern era players, I am surprised to see Andy on list 7 eventhough I see him as a very good grass court player.

Considering Roger's form, I give the favorite tag to Andy, I place him as heavy favourite if Rafa is drawn on Nole's half and I presumed that will be the case and hoping for a Nole-Rafa quarters, not sure how many believe that would happen, Wimbledon quarters Nole-Rafa , you saw here first.

Wimbledon is the only place I'd give Roger the room to recapture his top form, he is capable of lifting his game as he has done so in the past at SW19, the only thing going against that is the form of the other main players. Its not so easy anyway, and given the recent losses to them, its a difficult ask but not impossible.

I'm still going with Nadal as Favourite, Djoko 2nd and Murray 3rd, closely, very closely followed by Federer. Del boy, Berdych and Ferrer may cause an upset in the 2nd week, (just edited the next sentence, for as I wrote it, it sounded wrong - that Murray and Federer were the weakest links but on further reflection it could be Djokovic and Federer).

If the draw pans out, I'd like to see a Nadal/Murray final. I'm not all there in thinking Murray could win this year. I put 2014 as Andy's best year to come, with many tournies to his name, Wimbledon being one of them. Going on his state of play atm, he is a giant in the making if he can build on the results of last year and this years progress with the help of Lendl. His on court attitude and tactical nous is in stark contrast to who he was 2 years ago.

"Andy should start heavy favourite for Wimbledon"

Excuse me but a certain Andy Roddick won (was it?) 4 of these titles and he never won Wimbledon.

File under deluded.

Andy is probably 3rd or 4th favourite about where he should be.

OP: In 2014.

I think it should be pointed out that the OP is NOT a Murray fan and it is not a view shared by Murray  followers - just in case this post is used in future times to claim Murray fans are too confident/big their favourite player up etc.

He is one of the favourites for sure...it's pretty open this year you feel.

My gut feel is he's equal favourite with Nadal UNLESS Rafa gets in front of Djokovic before the final, in which case I like Murrays chances a lot.

I'm downgrading Federer's chances on the basis of him not squashing Youzhny; he completely owns the Colonel yet he lost only his 4th set and didn't romp the others.

Interesting given how the grass events have gone this week.

I don't think Andy is serving well enough to win Wimbledon at the moment. Djokovic and Nadal will be all over his 2nd serve. Yes he has played well at Queens, but the surface is a lot quicker than Wimbledon.

Federer you have to wonder if his back will hold up. Physically he can't afford any scraps in the opening rounds. You have to hope that he gets a lot of CC action to boost the chances of roof assistance.

Nadal is the form man and for me I can see him going under the radar. If he avoids some of the heavy hitters in the opening rounds, he could easily play himself into contention.

Djokovic. I think he is a bit vulnerable at the moment. He has a tendancy to start very slow in matches and I think if someone could get on top of him he could struggle.

Let's see what the draw holds. Hewitt and Malisse could be players the top boys want to avoid.

legendkillarV2 wrote:Interesting given how the grass events have gone this week.

I don't think Andy is serving well enough to win Wimbledon at the moment. Djokovic and Nadal will be all over his 2nd serve. Yes he has played well at Queens, but the surface is a lot quicker than Wimbledon.

Federer you have to wonder if his back will hold up. Physically he can't afford any scraps in the opening rounds. You have to hope that he gets a lot of CC action to boost the chances of roof assistance.

Nadal is the form man and for me I can see him going under the radar. If he avoids some of the heavy hitters in the opening rounds, he could easily play himself into contention.

Djokovic. I think he is a bit vulnerable at the moment. He has a tendancy to start very slow in matches and I think if someone could get on top of him he could struggle.

Let's see what the draw holds. Hewitt and Malisse could be players the top boys want to avoid.

I don't really think Nadal is under the radar, I think he's flat out one of the two overwhelming favourites with Djoko - he's going to be there or thereabouts unless he hits a big flat hitter on form on a greasy surface in an early round.  My goal for Fed is preservation of the QF streak, I'm not expecting anything else, and whilst I don't think anyone will want to play Murray, I don't think he's quite there for the big W this time around.

legendkillar. I agree Nadal for some appears to be under the radar. This could be because some are using dodgy radars. They should perhaps check them out or better still use a more reliable radar...

Rosol will fix the radar and send Nadal into servicing 

zzzz....

hawkeye wrote:legendkillar. I agree Nadal for some appears to be under the radar. This could be because some are using dodgy radars. They should perhaps check them out or better still use a more reliable radar...

Sorry but I fail to see where he appears to be under the radar? In the prediction topic Crystal Ball thread I tipped Nadal to win, is he not also THE or ONE OF THE favourites with the bookmakers as well. Doesn't seem to be much under the radar at all. This is a pretty open Wimbledon in any case so unless you feel Rafa is red hot favourite then I fail to see how Rafa is 'under the radar'?

Nadal under the radar? He's on top of my radar, bludgeoning it with his forehand!! 

He's my pick to win it, and I've seen plenty of others say the same. And as said above, he's right up there in the bookies odds too. 

To conclude... He's not under the radar at all.

Danny_1982 wrote:Nadal under the radar? He's on top of my radar, bludgeoning it with his forehand!! 

He's my pick to win it, and I've seen plenty of others say the same. And as said above, he's right up there in the bookies odds too. 

To conclude... He's not under the radar at all.

Perhaps hawkeye is miffed there is no backside licking going on towards Nadal? Anyway he is my tip to win and bookies favourite so definitely not under the radar.

I disagree, I would consider Nadal the slight favourite at Wimbledon. I think Murray has a very good chance but I would put him alongside Djokovic in his likelihood of winning.

Nadal's confidence will be sky high and if he finds his feet early on grass, I can see him going all the way. I still expect Rafa to win Wimbledon and Novak to pick up the US open. I think Murray will feature strongly in both but may just fall short. Murray's best chance is somehow avoiding Nadal, I think Rafa is a very bad match up for him, not just the H2H overall but on grass, Rafa has dealt with him pretty easily all three times they played. I know times have changed but as much as Murray has improved, I think Rafa has too.

Even on Murray's favoured hard court at Flushing Meadows, Nadal beat him quite well in their most recent slam encounter in 2011. I think Murray fears Nadal (dont blame him either, pretty much every player does), whereas I think Rafa respects murray but does not fear him. He has the experience of beating Murray at slams so many times, particularly on centre court at Wimbledon.

That being said if Murray avoids Nadal, I think he has a very good chance. I suspect Murray might win Wimbledon one day but I dont think it will be this year.

The only surprise for me will be anybody but nadal lifting the trophy, he is back in the zone. If Djokovic was to win it again, it would be huge for his confidence so soon after that really close defeat at Rolland Garros

Decent post slasher.

CaledonianCraig wrote:I think it should be pointed out that the OP is NOT a Murray fan and it is not a view shared by Murray  followers - just in case this post is used in future times to claim Murray fans are too confident/big their favourite player up etc.

I think you should be giving the OP the benefit of the doubt. After all, she's suggesting Murray is doing well - it'd only be wumming (and therefore worthy of your sceptical post) if she was running him down.

There's a guy on another thread saying all this better than I can, you should look in on it and learn from him.

Cheers CC, learn from the best  

I think some perspective is needed at times on these forums. After Novak's loss to Nadal at French open, you would swear by the reaction that it was one of the worst performances of his career! I see it as Novak making great progress and getting closer to nadal on clay all the time.

I also see Murray constantly evolving and looking to push on, we all need to appreciate this era. As if witnessing the likes of the top four was not enough, the guys chasing behind are hardly slouches either.

I can think of a few years ago when we were already preparing for Federer vs Nadal final with no uncertainty whatsoever. Now we have a handful of players that could threaten at any stage.

bogbrush wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:I think it should be pointed out that the OP is NOT a Murray fan and it is not a view shared by Murray  followers - just in case this post is used in future times to claim Murray fans are too confident/big their favourite player up etc.

I think you should be giving the OP the benefit of the doubt. After all, she's suggesting Murray is doing well - it'd only be wumming (and therefore worthy of your sceptical post) if she was running him down.

There's a guy on another thread saying all this better than I can, you should look in on it and learn from him.

Not really anywhere on the same scale though is it?

Look at Murray's record and look at Federer's at Wimbledon. Big difference is there not? That is why people invariably place Federer (still) as one of the favourites and some even tip him to win it.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:I think it should be pointed out that the OP is NOT a Murray fan and it is not a view shared by Murray  followers - just in case this post is used in future times to claim Murray fans are too confident/big their favourite player up etc.

I think you should be giving the OP the benefit of the doubt. After all, she's suggesting Murray is doing well - it'd only be wumming (and therefore worthy of your sceptical post) if she was running him down.

There's a guy on another thread saying all this better than I can, you should look in on it and learn from him.

Not really anywhere on the same scale though is it?

Look at Murray's record and look at Federer's at Wimbledon. Big difference is there not? That is why people invariably place Federer (still) as one of the favourites and some even tip him to win it.

Last years finalist and Olympics winner in his prime?

Not like you to forget those things.

Lets look at their last 3 grass results...

M: F, W, W
F: W, F, W

Not much in it. If not for that 4.5 hr marathon with Delboy Fed's trio might read W, W, W. 
However, this is 12 months on and Federer has been at the pies.

lydian wrote:Lets look at their last 3 grass results...

M: F, W, W
F: W, F, W

Not much in it. If not for that 4.5 hr marathon with Delboy Fed's trio might read W, W, W. 
However, this is 12 months on and Federer has been at the pies.

Quite!

But Amrits blatant wumming was genuine because of Feds wonderful record while cooler was blatantly winding up because she tipped useless Murray. At least that's Craig's position.

Weak doesn't begin to describe it.

Yes but as you have frequently pointed out the Olympics shouldn't even include tennis and that it holds less importance than the WTF.

Like I have said on multiple threads here you could make a case for and against each of the top four players (Djokovic, Murray, Federer and Nadal) and this year is very open. Some are tipping Nadal (myself), some Murray (ic I take it), some Federer (Red and one or two others) and some Djokovic. I would say it is the most open Wimbledon since before Federer's domination.

Oh so my opinion of the purpose of the Olympics is what made you decide 'coolers was messing about?

I can only think of one person on this board who's 'tipped' Fed and even that was a blatantly poor attempt at Wumming. I don't remember any 'one or two others'.

I actually think Fed is the least favourite, with Novak and Andy 'joint' favourites - but agree that Murray is slightly favoured
 
Sometimes, us fans have to put our neck on the block - I was amazed how Murray overcome that nasty fall and rather than just allow himself to fade, came back and got better and better against a Cilic, who for once didn't really wilt
 
He now parades around Queens and no doubt Wimbledon as if he feels it's his turf and if the other lot (i.e the other three) want to usurp him, then they can think again
 
Great to see, but let's see if the favourite tag is justified

Credit where's its due, bantroban!

Okay BB I have revisited the Crystal Ball thread and found evidence to back up your theory - much to my disappointment. In that thread Red tips it to be a Djokovic V Murray final with Djoko winning in four and says there that Roger was seven times champion but in poor form. Therefore he/she must have been on the wind-up on the thread you speak of unless she had a change of mind. Apologies there.

I think IC is a he BB.

Erm! With some cynics on these boards, who make him  a favourite, itching for him to slip up - so they can tell us 'if he can't win now, when can he?' 

Ah well! We're a lot further, on in expectations, from Andy's detractors, than we were just after the Wawrinka US defeat in 2010

And that, as they say, is progress

LuvSports! wrote:I think IC is a he BB.

I was thinking that. Just didn't seem fair to call him a she.

banbrotam wrote:Erm! With some cynics on these boards, who make him  a favourite, itching for him to slip up - so they can tell us 'if he can't win now, when can he?' 

Ah well! We're a lot further, on in expectations, from Andy's detractors, than we were just after the Wawrinka US defeat in 2010

And that, as they say, is progress

That post was thrown Craig's way as part of another ridiculous argument. It wasn't meant for others, you just got some collateral damage.

emancipator wrote:

LuvSports! wrote:I think IC is a he BB.

 I was thinking that. Just didn't seem fair to call him a she.

That'll be embarrassing if so. I suppose I should have known from the way he didn't fall for socal's charm.

bogbrush wrote:

banbrotam wrote:Erm! With some cynics on these boards, who make him  a favourite, itching for him to slip up - so they can tell us 'if he can't win now, when can he?' 

Ah well! We're a lot further, on in expectations, from Andy's detractors, than we were just after the Wawrinka US defeat in 2010

And that, as they say, is progress

That post was thrown Craig's way as part of another ridiculous argument. It wasn't meant for others, you just got some collateral damage.

I am  begining to wonder if the Syrian crisis is less severe than your and CC's differences

No banbro it is sorted now.

My point is nobody is a heavy favourite this year and any of the top four could hold claims as to why they should be favourite (but certainly not a heavy favourite).

banbrotam wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

banbrotam wrote:Erm! With some cynics on these boards, who make him  a favourite, itching for him to slip up - so they can tell us 'if he can't win now, when can he?' 

Ah well! We're a lot further, on in expectations, from Andy's detractors, than we were just after the Wawrinka US defeat in 2010

And that, as they say, is progress

That post was thrown Craig's way as part of another ridiculous argument. It wasn't meant for others, you just got some collateral damage.

I am  begining to wonder if the Syrian crisis is less severe than your and CC's differences

Nah, it's a minor skirmish. I put it at no more than the India / Pakistan border.

That reminds me of Kashmir...great song by the Zep



Well....this thread has ran it's course surely.

bogbrush wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:I think it should be pointed out that the OP is NOT a Murray fan and it is not a view shared by Murray  followers - just in case this post is used in future times to claim Murray fans are too confident/big their favourite player up etc.

I think you should be giving the OP the benefit of the doubt. After all, she's suggesting Murray is doing well - it'd only be wumming (and therefore worthy of your sceptical post) if she was running him down.

There's a guy on another thread saying all this better than I can, you should look in on it and learn from him.

Just a small correction BB, the OP is 'HE' and not 'SHE' .

LuvSports! wrote:I think IC is a he BB.

Finally some sense prevailed .

Grass Court Metrix as follows

I didn't open a thread trying ti windup when I said Andy is the favourite , not sure how many know this, Andy has the best stats for grass among current player ahead of Rafa and Djoko and only behind the the GOAT.

Lets look into  the stats
Player          Win/Loss  Career Index  Current Index

1]Roger Federer     121-17       .877              .941
7]Andy Murray       66-14        .825              .944
9]Rafael Nadal       50-12        .806              .500  [no Idea where this current Metrix came from, Davis cup? or may be last years included as well]
16]Leyton Hewitt   115-34       .772             .714
17]Novak Djokovic  47-14        .770              .750

Note: The number next to the name indicate the career position among all time modern era players, I am surprised to see Andy on list 7 eventhough I see him as a very good grass court player.

Considering Roger's form, I give the favorite tag to Andy, I place him as heavy favourite if Rafa is drawn on Nole's half and I presumed that will be the case and hoping for a Nole-Rafa quarters, not sure how many believe that would happen, Wimbledon quarters Nole-Rafa , you saw here first.

Current index is matches in last 12 months.
Nadal played 2 matches at Wimb last year...won one, lost one = 50%.

Grass has changed so much over the year that the career stats vs older and retired players are almost meaningless.

Murray 7th best grass record of all time? That's impressive and ridiculous for a guy who's never won Wimbledon. 

Murray's last 3 grass tournaments have been RU,W,W so he deserves to be there or thereabouts... However the other 3 have won Wimbledon and he hasn't, which is why I think one of those deserves the favourite tag. 

Great stats though IC.

Nadal has not played any Grass warm-ups. He is also a slow starter and vulnerable in the first week.

Danny_1982 wrote:Murray 7th best grass record of all time? That's impressive and ridiculous for a guy who's never won Wimbledon. 

Murray's last 3 grass tournaments have been RU,W,W so he deserves to be there or thereabouts... However the other 3 have won Wimbledon and he hasn't, which is why I think one of those deserves the favourite tag. 

Great stats though IC.

For the umteempth time, we can't make a player least favourite, simply because the others have done better in the past. It's the present from plus elements of the past that counts.

Oh and didn't Andy win the last 'major' on grass, arguably more important to both Novak and Roger and hence making it harder and mentally tougher for him to win, the last time

We seem to be like the golf, where Tiger is always the favourite simply beacuse, er, well he always wins doesn't he - for me and I'm not having a go, it's the lazy Sue Barker, type of opinion. Roger / Rafa / Novak will win, simply because they usually do better than Andy in finals

I'm bullish about Murray's chances, simply because, now, pound for pound he is the best on grass

Whilst we have to wonder whether Murray's body is actualy up to a slam, the others have far more questions

A justified slight favourite

If he fails, it will be because he hasn't played at his best - which will be far more worrying than the usual reasons

lydian wrote:Current index is matches in last 12 months.
Nadal played 2 matches at Wimb last year...won one, lost one = 50%.

Grass has changed so much over the year that the career stats vs older and retired players are almost meaningless.

Slice it whichever way you want. Murray's record since 2009 on the grass, has been very impressive.

Interesting that on the (slightly) faster conditions of last year - Murray played his best stuff

I've stated many times, that for me he would have had no issue in the past with the great hand / eye co-ordination he has, plus of course faster conditions hide the weak part of his game - the second serve

Here's hoping the warm spell in SW London, lasts for 3 weeks

Banbro - whether you've said it umpteen times or not, experience of winning an event is an advantage over someone who hasn't in my opinion.

I'm delighted to hear a Murray fan so enthusiastic, but man be a bit more tolerant of other opinions!

Nobody hopes you're right more than me by the way.

So from that table, from Wiki, we're supposed to believe Murray is a better grass court player than Becker or Edberg? And he's less than 1% behind Sampras...sorry that renders the stats meaningless. The devil is in the detail. Because the numbers are low the %'s are skewed...Sampras has nearly 45 more wins but only 6 more losses yet as mentioned he's less than 1% ahead. Also, if we look at grass slams alone then Murray drops to 10th behind Becker (5th) and Edberg (8th). In fact he's behind Djokovic (joint 8th). We know he's great over 3 sets, it's over 5 sets he needs to make his prowess count in these prime years he's now hit.

lydian wrote:So from that table, from Wiki, we're supposed to believe Murray is a better grass court player than Becker or Edberg? And he's less than 1% behind Sampras...sorry that renders the stats meaningless.

Don't think I said any of that

My point is, as usual lost in posters thinking I'm been overtly defensive, that his record is impressive, i.e. Since 2009 he's won Queens three times, reached two Wimby semi's a final and won the Olympics there

I fail to see why he's not lauded by you, in the same way as the other players.

My annoyance, is that you always imply that it's about how the others play. For instance apparantly Fed was hindered after his Del Potor SF at The Olympics. Now you may have a point. But in that case, let's admit that Fed got a bit of luck at last years Wimby, as even BB stated, when the roof went on

I simply think he's earned enough brownie points, to be respected in his own right - rather than the let's remember what Nadal did to him in 2011, pre-injury and pre-'new' Andy Murray

I've stated he could still blow it - but he looks pretty awesome at the moment. What's impressing me most, is in that third set against Cilic he actually outblasted him, rather than Cilic imploding

That's not a Murray version Nadal has seen

I don't think feds was lucky last year at wimby at all. Roof came on in the 3rd set.

Danny_1982 wrote:Banbro - whether you've said it umpteen times or not, experience of winning an event is an advantage over someone who hasn't in my opinion.

I'm delighted to hear a Murray fan so enthusiastic, but man be a bit more tolerant of other opinions!

Nobody hopes you're right more than me by the way.

I'm very tolernat of opinions

But a bit impatient with those that ignore the facts

"whether you've said it umpteen times or not, experience of winning an event is an advantage over someone who hasn't in my opinion"

Totaly ageee. But it also needs to be mixed up with current form. I mean using this logic, my footie team have to be the favourites to get to the League Cup Final again 

And there is one important fact - Andy has experience of winning an event at Wimbledon, arguablly the most important to Roger last year, who told anyone who would listen how important it was for him in 2012.

Are you telling me that the mental approach for Wimbledon, will be less intense than last years Olympics, at the latter stages?

I fail to understand how the way Murray won The Olympics means he has no experience of winning at Wimbledon

Moreover, as we see with the way that Andy now arrogantly strides the court - he fails to understand this to

And yes, I'm ready for a Hewitt first round knockout!!