Leinster - Clermont - how do they match up

Along with that SF two years against Toulouse, I think Leinster are now heading into arguably their toughest ever HC match against Clermont in Bordeaux in three weeks time and we will probably have to put in the most intense performance if we are to make the final. Have to say more nervous about this one than I have been for a long long time.

Playing for 50 minutes like we did against a crap team like Cardiff ain’t going to do against Clermont who were clinical against Saracens and could have won by a lot more if they had extended themselves. Have we the pack to stand up against a very powerful Clermont, how do the three-quarters match? etc

At this stage, the all-knowing bookies don’t know how to call it with the same odds (10/11) for both teams, so in the interests of debate here’s my man-to-man assessment based on Saturday’s starting 15’s (obviously there’s no certainty the starting 15’s for the semi-final will be the same.

15 – Kearney –v- Byrne. Byrne was good against Saracens but Kearney is in the form of his life, in attack, in defence and under the high ball – Kearney

14 – Nacewa –v- Sivivatu. Isa had an unusually quiet game v Cardiff while Sivi was a bit more active v Saracens. Question marks over Sivi’s defence (none over Isa’s), but hard to call this one. Blue-tinged specs give it Nacewa

13 – O’Driscoll –v- Rougerie. BOD settling back in nicely and with a couple more games in next few weeks should be in fine shape. Rougerie is huge but has that mattered that much in previous games against Leinster? Again hard to call so make it evens

12 – Darcy –v- Fofana. Darcy has improved in recent weeks but think Fofana is a fantastic player if still having a bit to learn about passing to the rest of his team. Fofana

11 – Fitzgerald –v- Malzieu. Malzieu was pretty quiet v Saracens but we know what he can do. Lukey did some nice things (the BOD try) but have to go with Malzieu for this one

10 – Sexton –v- Skrela. Have to say always though Skrela is a bit flaky and how will Brock James fare if he’s the starting 10 v Leinster. Sexton in fantastic form right now so a clear vote for Sexton

9 – Reddan –v- Parra. No question Parra has the edge over either of Leinster’s 9’s – a real general for Clermont. I’d be inclined to start Boss for this one – more aggressive than Reddan and that might count against a real physical outfit like Clermont. Parra

8 – Heaslip –v- Vermeulen. Heaslip a lot better after a poor 6N but still has a way to go to reach the level of last year. Vermeulen gets ignored a lot as a result of the number of fine 8’s in France. If Heaslip continues to improve then I think he has the edge

7 – O’Brien –v- Lapandry. I’d be inclined to play Jennings for the start and move SOB to his preferred 6 and move McLaughin to the bench. Lapandry a dependable if not spectacular 7 so O’Brien gets’ the nod

6 – McLaughlin – v- Bonnaire. McL playing well but Bonnaire is one of the best around so Bonnaire for me

5 – Thorn –v- Hines. Worth the price of the ticket alone, two big bruisers who know all the tricks of trade. Thorn still playing his way in and Hines playing well for Clermont (what a tragedy we were forced by the IRFU blazers to let him go). Marginal call but Hines for me

4 – Cudmore –v- Cullen. Cudmore was lot better v Saracens that I expected and remarkably managed not to get carded. He’s still too much of a loose cannon and I’d give Leo the edge here

3 – Ross –v- Zirkashvili. Prop not the strong point for this superannuated winger. Both did well at the weekend – thought Ross gave Gethin Jenkins a tough time and that’s an achievement in itself. Zirk very strong in an overwhelmingly dominant Clermont scrum. Evens between the two

2 – Strauss –v- Kayser. Would definitely start with Strauss for his more physical approach. Again don’t have expertise to evaluate hookers so will duck the issue and go for evens again

1 – Healy –v- Faure – Ditto as for 3 and 2 so for evens between the two

Thoughts, especially on the front rows especially welcome

I think that the Clermont front row is a better unit. Otherwise in the pack pretty even in the second row, and I agree that Leinster shade it in the back row.

Assuming Parra's injury has cleared up enough to allow him to kick for goal, I would expect James to get the nod over Skrela. Probably even, Parra better than either Leinster option and Sexton more reliable than CA option.

Centres probably shaded by Clermont for the reasons you say, while back 3 is pretty even. Kearney > Byrne, Malzieu > Fitzgerald, Sivivatu & Nacewa even.

Nice match up for the neutral.

ye your right this is i think the toughest HC match for leinster in recent years...btw bit harsh on cardiff there

nice post Brennomac -agree with most of it.

one thing though is that if fit Vosloo should play at 8 so not an easy call. clermont backrow might not be as effective as a unit but could match leinster one.

I found Sivivatu quite confortable in defense and never in real danger on sunday specially under high ball (mind you I was probably comparing him with Matavanou!). you could also see that he was always trying to bring something in attack even if there wasnt much space. really think he's a fantasctic team player.

whocares how do you see ASMs chances of winning being affected by having to go to Bordeaux?

im guessing that people may think that because french teams traditionally dont play well away from their home stadium...of course all that has been now thrown out the winow because of their performance against sarries

Yeah I think its more of a case of, imagine what they would have done to Sarries in Clermont....

Clermont should win this one. They will have dominance in the front row, and possibly in the second row, although Thorn does pack a punch in shifting. Back row? O'Brien and Bonnaire the two standouts. Pretty 50/50 otherwise.

Parra and James v Reddan/Boss and Sexton - I would hand to the French pairing. Rougerie and Fofana against Darcy and O'Driscoll? The French pair again.

It's in the back three if Kearney, Nacewa and Fitzgerald play out of their best skins that Leinster should have an edge.

Overall though, Clermont should take this. They're up for it, they've had some tough opposition. Leinster have had it too easy and are going to get a smack in the chops.

Pot Hale wrote:Clermont should win this one. They will have dominance in the front row, and possibly in the second row, although Thorn does pack a punch in shifting. Back row? O'Brien and Bonnaire the two standouts. Pretty 50/50 otherwise.

Parra and James v Reddan/Boss and Sexton - I would hand to the French pairing. Rougerie and Fofana against Darcy and O'Driscoll? The French pair again.

It's in the back three if Kearney, Nacewa and Fitzgerald play out of their best skins that Leinster should have an edge.

Overall though, Clermont should take this. They're up for it, they've had some tough opposition. Leinster have had it too easy and are going to get a smack in the chops.

Somehow, knowing your posting style / form, this hyperbole doesn't surprise me..

A bit dismissive of Leinster's chances I think, Pothale. Agree Clermont have edge in front row, but quite frankly in second row Cudmore is a yellow or red card waiting to happen and no better man than Thorn to wind him up.

At half back, Clermont have clear edge at SH just as Leinster have clear edge at OH.

In the centre, Fofana has shown himself to be a great runner and finisher but like lots of young players can be a bit blinkered and not as aware as he should be about what's around him for passes and offloads. Still he's up against a declining force in Darcy so he has the edge. At 13, don't remember Rougerie ever getting the better of BOD and don't expect any change there.

As to Leinster getting a "smack in the chops" in your fine words, agree that Clermont should be favourites and have had a tougher run to the SF - Leicester, Ulster, Saracens while Leinster have had a pretty easy run.

As the bookies have it, too close to call and don't think it'll be anything other than a one-score game

This is going to be really tight I'd say.

If this was in Dublin I'd be confident but I have really worries now.
What's even worse is I'm going to be in a plane for the duration of the match!!!!

BoyneRFC wrote:whocares how do you see ASMs chances of winning being affected by having to go to Bordeaux?

Bordeaux is not exactly next door to clermont (300km) and the atmosphere is less opressing in chaban delmas than in their own town (think about a big football stadium). that said clermont players are used to this place (we regularly play T14 semi finals there and local team UBB fill this stadium when they play against the likes of clermont) and am sure 15,000 will travel they should feel at home there.
nice venue for a neutral though, easy access to the stadium and plenty of things to do afterwards

plenty of things to do afterwards

J'y vais, so if you could elaborate that would be marvelous!!

Hmmmm, I wonder are French club fans dishing it out to Clermont fans right now on whatever forums they talk to each other on... telling them that it's all very well 'putting away' Saracens with one try, one conversion, one drop goal and four penalties.... it's another thing meeting the current champions of Europe who can score tries for fun in either first or second half routs that can often have opponents looking dazed.

Clermont will be a tough trip for Leinster for sure; but equally, they'll be tough tourists for the natives to tame.

SecretFly wrote:Hmmmm, I wonder are French club fans dishing it out to Clermont fans right now on whatever forums they talk to each other on...

I suspect they are gloating in Toulouse's misery.

Surely there has to be some concern whether your pack gets destroyed by Clermonts in the manner Toulouse did when they last dispatched of you from the semi-finals? Also the match-ups are a bit blue tinted but I would have thought Brock James might be nailed on to start ahead of Skrela?

I suspect a Clermont win. They have a star studded squad. And unlike some other expensively assembled French club squads, they are actually a well coached team with a good spirit. Home advantage will swing it their way.

That said Leinster do have the firepower to win if they get it right. I think our scrum will be fine. Thorn is a huge plus in the scrums. Plus we've met them three times in the last two seasons, and each time our scrum has faired progressively better. Feek, Healy and Ross are familiar with Clermont now and we won't see a repeat of the 2010 mincing.

I think psychologically Clermont might fear us more, after the mauling we gave them in the Aviva last year. We blew them away. But I just look at the quality of their squad and their home record and I can see us playing well, and narrowly losing a great game of rugby.

Clermont to win the Heineken Cup.

I had backed Leinster to win the cup from the opening rounds. Clermont do cause me some concerns though even as a neutral.

all french supporters are behind clermont whatever their club is. msot of them still think Leinster are favorites. the thing with toulouse is that you cannot really have a go at them after a couple of bad performance because you know that they still are going to spank your team in a near future anyway

BoyneRFC wrote:

Somehow, knowing your posting style / form, this hyperbole doesn't surprise me..

Hyperbole? Where?

I sometimes wonder just what Irish players have to do to be star-studded?

When Munster were winning HCs, Ospreys were the Galactos superstars. Now Leinster have won a few and Clermont have the 'star-studded' players...

Is it just that Irish players don't like bling???? More gold medalions, hairy chests, sapphire rings and diamond tooth studs guys, you're letting us down!

BoyneRFC wrote:

plenty of things to do afterwards

J'y vais, so if you could elaborate that would be marvelous!!

sure....so in a nutshell
if you manage to stay in a hotel in the central part of the city (not far from the cathedral or place gambetta for instance) , you are basically walking distance from most of the good stuff : stadium 20 minutes, big irish pub (the connemara) 20 minutes, other bars, pubs and restaurant (st pierre / place de la bourse area close to the river) 20 minutes, student bars (place de la victoire area ) 30 minutes etc ... avoid the train station area (st jean) unless you like dodgy bars and adult cinemas. worst case there is a tram there now which is quite handy if you dont like to walk.

Nice teams. Hows thorn gone overall at leimster?

Taylorman wrote:Nice teams. Hows thorn gone overall at leimster?

Only played 3 games. Less than an hour in each, and half an A game. But played just as you would expect. Hard and strong. Real team player.

Taylorman wrote:Nice teams. Hows thorn gone overall at leimster?

He's only had 2/3 games since he arrived. Got media pats on the back for his performance in the Cardiff match, though the Munster match was probably more of a sterner test.

Reckon he'll deliver big time for the remaining H Cup matches. Leinster likely don't need him for the remaining 3 league matches, but would come in handy for playoffs, although Toner probably needs some tough game time if he's gonna travel to NZ in June.

i guess you are saying Leinster would rather be playing Edinburgh at the Aviva

Huge game between the two strongest sides this year. On neutral territory I'd fancy Leinster to have the edge but as this is in France I'd have to fancy Clermont, just, unfortunately. That said Leinster definitely have the class and quality to win though but they'll have to be on top form.

Good luck to Leinster and hopefully we'll meet them in the final !

Would like to see the Byrne vs Kearney matchup, both rivals for the Lions 15 jersey in 2009, both in good form once again.

The Station area it is.. thanks whocares..

This game is a huge test for us. We’ve shown that we can beat anyone in Europe on our home patch but so far this year we haven’t set the world alight away from home.
Performance can be dire as far as I’m concerned here, we’ve shown we can play well but if we win this 0-3 I’ll be delighted. Clermont are a seriously dangerous team, but we’ll fear nobody.

Shame it’s in a tricky enough place to get to, I was away for the weekend and when I came home all I could find are €300 day trips! ASM are hoping to take 15k fans plus gain neutral support, It’ll be a very intimidating atmosphere, but not as bad as the Stade Marcel du Michelan. Thank phook!

Lads, the other option would be to fly to Bergerac, I think?

Clermont are a good side and they played well on the weekend but there were many signs that they can be beaten. I think that Leinster will play a very fast and attacking game and i am not so sure that Clermont will be able to live with them. If i were the Leinster management i would be kicking up a little stir over Parras play acting so as to let the ref keep one eye on him. Diversionary tactics can be good (Ulster, Ferris is injured )

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Lads, the other option would be to fly to Bergerac, I think?

Thats through London.

You could try Nantes... 5 hours on the train though... You might end up having the craic like your man on the Heineken ad, but 5 hours on a boozy train is enough for me, let alone 31...

BoyneRFC wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Lads, the other option would be to fly to Bergerac, I think?

Thats through London.

You could try Nantes... 5 hours on the train though... You might end up having the craic like your man on the Heineken ad, but 5 hours on a boozy train is enough for me, let alone 31...

Or Exeter International, Boyne!

A lot of people saying Parra is a much better scrum half than Reddan and they will have a big advantage there. I disagree. Parra is a great goal kicker but Reddan is a huge part of why the Leinster backs have been so potent this year. He does everything well and is a little under rated, certainly by Kidney.

Intellegent fast passing, decent box kicking and decision making. Reasonably good at sniping. He actually has quite an influence on how Ireland and especially Leinster play. Parra may have the edge because of his kicking game but if the Leinster forwards can dominate or at least get parity I expect Reddan to be every bit as influential on the outcome of the match as Parra.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Lads, the other option would be to fly to Bergerac, I think?

or La Rochelle or Biarritz (2hours train from Bordeaux) if RyanAir still do flights to those places.

Dublin - Paris = 130 Euro
Paris train - Bordeaux = 140 Euro and 3 hours.

Easy.

since I live in Bordeaux I thought I'd pop in with a bit of advice, but basically whocares has covered it pretty well: avoid the train station area (which is decidedly dodgy), the best place for pubs is next to the river (place de la Bourse area) - Charles Dickens, Sweeney Todd's, Black Velvet, and a few others. Sweeney's does a great burger

worth mentioning is the fact there is an Ibis hotel near Meriadeck, for those looking for somewhere to stay. This is roughly midway between the pubs and the stadium. whocares mentioned the tram for those who don't fancy walking, and it's definitely an easy and cheap option - 1euro40 for a single ticket, you can get five or ten trips at reduced prices, I think 5euro80 and 10euro80. Tram A is the one which goes to the stadium.

Thanks Chelsea. Where's the best / busiest place to go on a Sunday night?

I'd aim for either the Conemara (Irish pub near Meriadeck - should be nice and busy after the Clermont-Leinster game) or Charles Dickens. It's a real bummer that I'm out of town over that week-end

Boyne - I was there with Wasps earlier in the season. I'll PM you some stuff later if you want, but Ive got to work now.

Hound- would be a winner. Thanks- but only if you get a spare minute!

No worries Boyne - part of what a fan forum is for.

It will be around 6pm.

this will be a serious game and a massive test for us.

we will need to be at our absolute best to prevail. if we are we can do it no doubt about it. hope brock james starts. not convinced by him in a tight game. brad thorn has been a major asset from a scrummaging perspective.

my concern would be if they dominate possession. Their backs have more raw power and pace than us off and could cause mayhem off go foward ball.

cannot afford trip either will try to get to ulster semi,

hopefully we see our northern friends in twickers

Lord, it will be close.

The big Georgian tighthead tore through just about everyone at the world cup and Clermont have based their entire set piece around their scrum this season. It's going to be a real challenge. You never usually see Sarries bullied in the pack but there was no other word for what happened in the last match.

It's not often you would say that a team has a backline which can claim parity with Leinster but CA definitely can. I don't think that they can possibly pick Skrela (who had a shocking game) given James' kicking masterclass in the last game which means that Clermont will have a 10 whose confidence has let him down (famously) in the past.

Leinster tend to win because they are greater than the sum of their parts and this should see them through but Leinster fans have to seriously consider the possibilty that they're going to have to win this game with less than 50% of the possession.

i actually think our strength is we play equal to the sum of our parts and play a style of rugby that suits us. we are not the biggest team in world rugby and do not play bash it/plod it forward rugby thank god. we are creative in attack and have real steel and grit in defence. this has come through hard knock over the years and good coaching from both chelka and schmidt. we have some excellent players and use them smartly.

when these players put on the green jersey this goes out of the window as the Irish team try to play like the England and South Africa of old without the real forward power to do this

GC - Skrela lasted about two minutes against Sarries.

Like last year and the year before, I think the two best teams in the competition are meeting in the semi final. Toulouse beat Leinster with home advantage in 2010 and went on to win th trophy, and Leinster beat Toulouse with home advantage in 2011 and went on to win the title. But Toulouse have been poor in Europe this year and Clermont have replaced them as Leinsters biggest threat. They were class at the weekend. And the last two years have shown that home advantage is crucial.

But Leinster have to see the away draw as a new challenge to prove themselves. Their "away" semi against Munster in 2009 was in Croke Park, in Dublin. So it was really a home match. They had home advantage all the way last year. To go to France and beat Clermont and go on to win a 3rd HC in 4 years would, I think, elevate them from one of the great HC teams, to the best HC team ever.

A win in France against one of the French giants is the one thing we haven't done in the last 4 years. Initially I was annoyed we got the away draw again. But it should be seen as an opportunity.

George Carlin wrote:Lord, it will be close.

The big Georgian tighthead tore through just about everyone at the world cup and Clermont have based their entire set piece around their scrum this season. It's going to be a real challenge. You never usually see Sarries bullied in the pack but there was no other word for what happened in the last match.

Ulster more than held their own up front against Clermont twice, so there's no reason Leinster can't do the same. Its the kind of game were Brad Thorn could come into his own and the likes of Sean O'Brien and Cian Healy will relish the physical challenge.

If Leinster can get parity and stand their ground physically then they have a superior backline imo. Sexton will need his kicking boots though.

Can't wait for this!