World Rugby Rankings

First topic message reminder :

Current World Rankings

IRB Rankings at
http://www.worldrugby.org/rankings#mru

Fixtures according to http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/fixtures/_/league/180659/

Best odds for each result category from a range of bookies as at http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations

Code:



Saturday, March 18

Scotland v Italy 12:30 PM -- BT Murrayfield, Edinburgh

sco (on 82.18 points) at home -vs- ita (on 71.17 points)

If sco win by 1-15 points 0.000 82.18 71.17 No
If sco win by more than 15 0.000 82.18 71.17 No
If result is a draw 1.000 81.18 72.17 No
If ita win by 1-15 points 2.000 80.18 73.17 No
If ita win by more than 15 3.000 79.18 74.17 No

Scotland (1/16)
Draw (66/1)
Italy (15/1)

France v Wales 2:45 PM -- Stade de France, Saint-Denis

fra (on 81.21 points) at home -vs- wal (on 82.16 points)

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.795 82.00 81.36 Yes
If fra win by more than 15 1.193 82.40 80.97 Yes
If result is a draw 0.205 81.00 82.36 No
If wal win by 1-15 points 1.205 80.00 83.36 No
If wal win by more than 15 1.807 79.40 83.97 No

France (8/13)
14:45TV
 

France (8/13)
Draw (25/1)
Wales (13/8)

Ireland v England 5:00 PM -- Aviva Stadium, Dublin

ire (on 83.18 points) at home -vs- eng (on 91.02 points)

If ire win by 1-15 points 1.484 84.66 89.54 No
If ire win by more than 15 2.226 85.41 88.79 No
If result is a draw 0.484 83.66 90.54 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 0.516 82.66 91.54 No
If eng win by more than 15 0.774 82.41 91.79 No

Ireland (6/4)
Draw (25/1)
England (9/13)



Original thread:
https://www.606v2.com/t12724p950-irb-world-rankings-part-1


Sources:
Fixtures : http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm
IRB Rankings : http://www.espn.co.uk/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html
Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html
Fixtures : http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/current/match/scores/recent.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh

But your side has lost to Scotland many more times.

In fact, you perfected the art of losing to them and we are merely distant imitations.

Form not reputation

Did you like the 'distant' bit?

Linebreaker wrote:Keep dreaming Pete.

Though I'd expect you to look for devious ways to try and overtake the teams that battered your lot in November. Keep trying son!

Awh. Come on LB, give them the ranking, it means so much to them.

Beacuse italy beat France beating france isn't such a big gain either. Ireland are really the only winners pts wise from this weekend.

Biltong wrote:

Linebreaker wrote:Keep dreaming Pete.

Though I'd expect you to look for devious ways to try and overtake the teams that battered your lot in November. Keep trying son!

Awh. Come on LB, give them the ranking, it means so much to them.

To be fair they already gave us the Ashes

Yes, we felt rather greedy keeping them for 16 years.

The facists in IRB stats bunker docked Ireland .01 ranking point from my unofficial numbers.
OP updated

Incidentally the European RWC regional qualifiers have started.
https://www.606v2.com/t27478-rwc-2015-qualifying-updater

Nasty IRB! I would have scaled them up .01 if anything.

Linebreaker wrote:Nasty IRB! I would have scaled them up .01 if anything.

Blame SS(Staisticalsparte) ÛberLeutnant Alan von Türing, LB.

He'll no doubt prevent the English from overturning die Australier

Wie so denn?

Das wäre ein Ort des Unglücks für die Engländer sein!

Wales up three to 7th
Sotland up two to 10th
Italy down two to 11th
http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html

Big gap between England and the rest now, according to the rankings they are red hot favourites for a home win over France and get f all boost to their rating if they do so. Overhauling Aus and SA doesnt look a possibility even if they take a grandslam by big margins.

New s/w calcs in OP.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:Big gap between England and the rest now, according to the rankings they are red hot favourites for a home win over France and get f all boost to their rating if they do so. Overhauling Aus and SA doesnt look a possibility even if they take a grandslam by big margins.

Why should they overtake Aus and SA through the back door by beating very average sides? ABs aside of course.

Especially after both teams handed them their ar@e on a plate on their home turf.

I guess they can if the AB's have a rubbish year against France and in the rugby championship and then they go well in the end of year tournament. It will be difficult this year. That's partly a function of their fixture list. I suspect you have do well away from home against the top sides, or win the world cup to end up ranked no 1 in a short period of time.

Blackcane, I honestly think there is some disproportionate fear you guys have of France.

I know history tells a certain story in some crucial matches (and that can't be changed) but I'm still stubborn enough to want to back NZ every time in that fixture. I think they fear you more than you do them; however they are slightly more crafty in perpetuating the myth (given France's 25% success rate v NZ) and they must revel in the idea that the greatest rugby nation considers them 'their bogey team'.

As a (mere) Wallaby supporter - I find it difficult to reconcile this fear and it sort of surprises me every time I read or hear about it.

I tend to agree with LB, I often listen to the statements New Zealanders make when they face certain opponents, this one is more dangerous cause we don't know what to expect, that one runs us ragged so they are more dangerous, this one is predictable so we know what to expect.

It is all true, none of it is factually incorrect. But when you consider the win/loss ratio's sanity should prevail.

Perhaps the all Blacks should lose 50% of their matches for a few years, THEN they will know fear.

Biltong... I had to use my spellchecker for "disproportionate"... I've never typed that word before I don't think.

You could just have said unrealistic, asymmetric, excessive, uncommensurate, inordinate, irregular, lopsided, nonsymmetrical, out of proportion, overbalanced, superfluous, too much, unequal, uneven, unreasonable, unsymmetrical.

Did you see that last line I just deleted? That's our little secret, OK?

Missed it, please share.

Linebreaker wrote:

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:Big gap between England and the rest now, according to the rankings they are red hot favourites for a home win over France and get f all boost to their rating if they do so. Overhauling Aus and SA doesnt look a possibility even if they take a grandslam by big margins.

Why should they overtake Aus and SA through the back door by beating very average sides? ABs aside of course.

Especially after both teams handed them their ar@e on a plate on their home turf.

Ah - the vagaries of the dear old IRB system. Had this been an even year and the game 'away' in France and if the points were as they are and []if [/i] England won then they would overtake both Aus and SA.

fra (on 81.56 points) at home -vs- eng (on 84.94 points)
If fra win by 1-15 points 1.038 82.60 83.90 No
If fra win by more than 15 1.557 83.12 83.38 No
If result is a draw 0.038 81.60 84.90 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 0.962 80.60 85.90 No
If eng win by more than 15 1.443 80.12 86.38 No

So Oz and SA would be average sides? Or need to compete more against PI nations?

Too many 'hads', 'ifs' and 'woulds' Portnoy.

Well had Aus beaten England and if SA had squeezed past them in the AIs then they would be ranked above them.

Too many has ifs and woulds for my liking LB, your ranking doesnt count


Englands chance to overhaul Aus has been wrecked by France being rubbish this year. Im not disagreeing that it doesnt really mean sh1t in the shiort term. The quality of play is more important ( England were notably better than SA on the day, but lost) in seeing where the teams are headed long term.
England have been strong now for a year. Theres a big gap between them and the rest of the 6 nations teams who's form is all over the place. They havent yet reached parity with Aus and SA, but are headed that way.
This is reflected in the current rankings.

On our day, we can beat anyone.

Short memory Pete. Were you abroad in autumn?

Too many 'hads', 'ifs' and 'woulds' Portnoy.

Deliberately so LB. That's why they were emphasised.

I know, I know.

I just want to keep your discussion real for the benefit of others.

Their record against us in the era of 7pt tries is about the same as the Aussies and boks. Boys it goes something like this whoever is winning at halftime will win. That's generally us. If it's all square it'll end in a draw. Unless, it's a world cup on neutral territory, in which case France will overcome a half time deficit and knock the crap out of us.

Apparently Wales are ahead of Ireland and Scotland are poised just below the top 8. England are closing in on Australia and France has fallen off the pace.

IRB World Rankings:
1 New Zealand 90.08
2 South Africa 86.94
3 Australia 86.87
4 England 85.30
5 France 81.20
6 Wales 80.74
7 Ireland 79.28
8 Samoa 78.71
9 Argentina 78.71
10 Scotland 78.19
11 Tonga 76.10
12 Italy 74.93

OP updated.

Can someone calculate how many points England will have if they beat Italy and Wales by 15+ points?

To some extent that depends on how Wales do against Edingburgh.

I suspect overhauling Australia may not be possible. There's also a chance that England will get beaten by Argentina in the summer, which would be very bad for points. Saying its a B team doesn't count, I assume.

Alex_Germany wrote:Can someone calculate how many points England will have if they beat Italy and Wales by 15+ points?

To some extent that depends on how Wales do against Edingburgh.

I suspect overhauling Australia may not be possible. There's also a chance that England will get beaten by Argentina in the summer, which would be very bad for points. Saying its a B team doesn't count, I assume.

Wales v Edinburgh seems a bit of a mismatch

Taffineastbourne wrote:

Alex_Germany wrote:Can someone calculate how many points England will have if they beat Italy and Wales by 15+ points?

To some extent that depends on how Wales do against Edingburgh.

I suspect overhauling Australia may not be possible. There's also a chance that England will get beaten by Argentina in the summer, which would be very bad for points. Saying its a B team doesn't count, I assume.

Wales v Edinburgh seems a bit of a mismatch

I wouldn't worry about Argentina. even if it's England B with 15 or so players with the Lions. The likelihood is that Argentina will have even more players unavailable. If last year is anything to go by. The top players coming out of Europe were largely rested in June so they could play in the rugby championship (the November side was also weakened).

Alex_Germany wrote:Can someone calculate how many points England will have if they beat Italy and Wales by 15+ points?

To some extent that depends on how Wales do against Edingburgh.

I suspect overhauling Australia may not be possible. There's also a chance that England will get beaten by Argentina in the summer, which would be very bad for points. Saying its a B team doesn't count, I assume.

You can find them stats in dreamonland.com they also have exclusive pics of Unicorns grazing.

Alex_Germany wrote:Can someone calculate how many points England will have if they beat Italy and Wales by 15+ points?

To some extent that depends on how Wales do against Edingburgh.

I suspect overhauling Australia may not be possible. There's also a chance that England will get beaten by Argentina in the summer, which would be very bad for points. Saying its a B team doesn't count, I assume.

Wales cruise into 5th

I wish he'd hurry up and update the table...

viewtothegym wrote:

Alex_Germany wrote:Can someone calculate how many points England will have if they beat Italy and Wales by 15+ points?

To some extent that depends on how Wales do against Edingburgh.

I suspect overhauling Australia may not be possible. There's also a chance that England will get beaten by Argentina in the summer, which would be very bad for points. Saying its a B team doesn't count, I assume.

You can find them stats in dreamonland.com they also have exclusive pics of Unicorns grazing.

So do teams lose points for getting a draw? I can't imagine we got anything from the Scots game as we were already a few places above them.

Provisional OP predictions posted.

Will check after official IRB figures are announced.

Good. So England can't/won't overtake Australia.

Go Wales!





On second thoughts... I'd rather have England nipping closer to the Wallaby's heels.

Morgannwg wrote:So do teams lose points for getting a draw? I can't imagine we got anything from the Scots game as we were already a few places above them.

It depends on the differences in ranking points between the sides before the game and also takes into account home advantage.

'Places' aren't factored in. It's just the points.

Linebreaker wrote:Good. So England can't/won't overtake Australia.

Go Wales!





On second thoughts... I'd rather have England nipping closer to the Wallaby's heels.

It's just rankings mate, it doesn't mean much in the greater scheme of things, it is win records that count.

You know my views are the same mate.

Our Test cricket team will be safe at least until 2076... everyone else is so far behind.

Linebreaker wrote:You know my views are the same mate.

Our Test cricket team will be safe at least until 2076... everyone else is so far behind.

I look at cricket in two era's

The one prior to our isolation - I call that history.

And then this era, whereby we try to catch Austrlia in wins.

OP confirmed.
I can't believe that Blighty can't catch at least the downward-spiralling Marsupials and a big win to overcome the antelopes.

Bugger the hardness and inscrutability of mathematics!

The top three are unlikely to be troubled before the autumn.

Cyril on 606v2 wrote:

Morgannwg wrote:So do teams lose points for getting a draw? I can't imagine we got anything from the Scots game as we were already a few places above them.

It depends on the differences in ranking points between the sides before the game and also takes into account home advantage.

'Places' aren't factored in. It's just the points.

And we were ranked a few places above them due to the points difference. Hence the reference. Understand?

Wales would have got a points for beating Scotland. You get points as long as you aren't over 10 points ahead of your opponents - once you've adjusted for home advantage. Before last week's game, Wales were on 80.74 while Scotland were on 78.19, so with a 3-point boost for home advantage Scotland were ranked higher than Wales when working out the points exchange.

England, on the other hand, had 85.30 points, while Italy were on 74.93. With a 3-point boost for England's home advantage, England were way over 10 points ahead of Italy, therefore gained nothing for beating them (and would have gained nothing even if they had beaten Italy by 100 points).

To complete the review, France were ranked on 81.20 and Ireland on 79.28. With Ireland's 3-point boost for home advantage, they were ranked above France when calculating the exchange. Therefore France "over-performed" by drawing away from home and Ireland "under-performed" - at least in terms of IRB rankings. France therefore would take a small number of points from Ireland.

This plays out in this week's rankings, as England and Italy are ranked as they were last week, Wales and France have both increased their points totals while Ireland and Scotland have both decreased their points totals. Wales are the big winners (as they won away from home).

With Australia not playing a test against a ranked team until the Rugby Championship (Lions tests don't count towards rankings) and South Africa playing a home quad-series with Scotland, Italy and Samoa (all ranked over 10 points below them when SA's home advantage is taken into account) therefore unable to gain points, England could well overtake both of them if they manage to win their next 3 games against Wales and Argentina twice (all away from home). Assuming 3 narrow wins, England would finish up on 87.24, enough to take England ahead of both South Africa and Australia ahead of the Rugby Championship.