Australian Open Round 4 (Days 7 and 8)

First topic message reminder :

So the tournament proper starts and the round of 16 in the men's singles looks to have more or less all that could be hoped. All the main challengers bar Potro are still there, Dimitrov may finally be justifying the hype and a couple of surprise packages in fine form in Bautista-Agut and Mayer.

Bottom Half

Djokovic v. Fognini (H2H 6-0) [RLA - not before 2.30pm]

The first meeting between them at slam level, after the match that never was at RG. Fognini is playing well and was impressive beating Querrey in straights in R3. However, for all his mercurial skills, he has 9 games in his last 6 sets versus the Djoker. Straight sets to Novak.

Wawrinka v. Robredo (H2H 1-6) [RLA - second night match]

Stan's only win over Tommy was in 2007 and he was beaten twice in 2013. Will Stan's walkover in r3 hurt him? Robredo was very impressive in beating Gasquet. However, I think Stan probably has the form to overcome the head to head but it won't be easy. Stan in 5.

Ferrer v. Mayer (H2H 4-3) [Hisense - after legends doubles and ladies singles]

Mayer has been in terrific form so far this year and comfortably beat Ferrer in Shanghai in their last match. His big serving and variety of shots can cause the more consistent Ferrer problems. I haven't seen much of Ferrer this tournament but I just get the feeling he isn't quite at his best. Going for the upset here - Mayer in 4.

Berdych v. Anderson (H2H 9-0) [Margaret Court - not before 5pm]

Big Kev must be fed up of the sight of Berdych. All 9 meetings have been in the last 2 years and this will be the 5th at slam level. Berdych looks ominously good and Anderson doesn't have the skills to change his game up to overcome the H2H. Big Berd in 3 sets.

Top Half

Nadal v. Nishikori (H2H 5-0) [RLA afternoon match - after two ladies singles]

Nishikori looked very smooth in crushing Donald Young after trailing in the first set but that was against Donald Young. Serve remains a weakness and he doesn't have the reach or power to bother Rafa. Rafa in 3.

Federer v. Tsonga (H2H 9-4) [RLA evening session first match]

The match of the round by a distance. Neither player has yet dropped a set and both have looked impressive. Will Fed's new racquet hold up to the pressure of facing a top guy. I'm not sure. Fed won in 5 in Australia last year but Tsonga recovered to win in straights on the clay of Roland Garros. This is very tough to call but I think there are more questions about Fed. I'm going for Tsonga in 4 tough sets.

Murray v. Robert (H2H 0-0) [Hisense - not before 4 30pm]

Unlikely to be much to see here. Robert as a lucky loser has done exceptionally well to reach this point and he does have a reputation for beating British players (but at a rather lower level). He is solid but has no real weapons. Murray in 3.

Dimitrov v. Bautista Agut (H2H 0-1) [Grandstand - not before 1pm]

The only match without at least one of the players seeded to make R4 but it could be a classic. Both have looked very impressive with B-A backing up his stunning win over Del-po with a crushing win over Paire. Dimitrov outclassed Raonic in 4 sets with only Raonic's serve keeping it close. Interesting their one match at the end of last year was won easily by Bautista-Agut. I just wonder whether Dimitrov's nerve might fail him on the brink of a slam QF. Going with the underdog in 5.

Ladies

Williams v. Ivanovic : Serena in 2
Li Na v. Makarova : Li Na in 3
Kerber v. Pennetta : Pennetta in 3
Bouchard v, Dellacqua : Bouchard in 2

Azarenka v. Stephens : Azarenka in 3
Sharapova v. Cibulkova : Sharapova in 3
Radwanska v. Muguruza : Radwanska in 2
Jankovic v. Halep : Halep in 2

Have I missed anything this week?

I presume HE's point is backed up by Rafa's slam performances in recent seasons. Presumably if he has lost any first week matches in recent years he's only lost matches where, on paper, you would expect him to be challenged given the ranking or reputation of Rafa's opponent? You know, household names.

He wouldn't lose to any lower ranked stiffs, would he?

Not a dig, just pointing out that the only times I can remember Rafa losing early was against two players he was so certain to batter that I very nearly didn't bother watching.

Beat me to it Craig.

Its tennis Danny timing, fitness levels, and focus levels vary greatly over the course of a career. On my best day I have beat players I have no business beating on my worst day I have lost to some schlubs that to this day makes me cringe. The same is true at every level of tennis and even in sports. Buster Douglas, since we are on the Tyson tip was the best fighter in the world for one night in Tokyo. None of these matches are a foregone conclusion because a top 100 player is capable of beating the world #1, even lower ranked than that if he plays a blinder or if the #1 is having issues.

Alternatively we could say the fact that over the last two years, Nadal has lost more times in Slams to players ranked 100+ than to players not named Djokovic adds credence to the much ridiculed "I will need to be at my best to beat the #110 in the world, no?" statement.

legendkillarV2 wrote:Have I missed anything this week?

The greatest performance in memory on the Rod Laver Arena apparently took place on Saturday.

HM Murdoch wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:Have I missed anything this week?

The greatest performance in memory on the Rod Laver Arena apparently took place on Saturday.

Yes it was mind-boggling with the victor hitting 21 winners and the loser hitting 57 unforced errors.   

CaledonianCraig wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:Have I missed anything this week?

The greatest performance in memory on the Rod Laver Arena apparently took place on Saturday.

Yes it was mind-boggling with the victor hitting 21 winners and the loser hitting 57 unforced errors.   

If Nadal pooped into a brown paper bag Hawkeye would demand that this masterpiece of modern art be hung at the Pompidou in Paris.

socal1976 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:Have I missed anything this week?

The greatest performance in memory on the Rod Laver Arena apparently took place on Saturday.

Yes it was mind-boggling with the victor hitting 21 winners and the loser hitting 57 unforced errors.   

If Nadal pooped into a brown paper bag Hawkeye would demand that this masterpiece of modern art be hung at the Pompidou in Paris.

Or she'd turn up at Wimbledon, and hurl it at the defending champion. Keeping some to store on the mantelpiece of course.

What are your QF predictions socal? Worried about Stan or do you think he's had his 2 chances to beat Novak at a slam?

HE please respond to these two comments!?!?! PLEASE

Noticed I got Seven out of eight 4th round predictions, which isn't too bad. Pity I didnt place a progressive parlay bet. Just need Wawrinka to beat Nole and tire himself out doing it, while Berdych somehow needs to beat Ferrer, then I'll feel very confident about my Berdych-Nadal 16/1 final....

I'm hoping Sodium lithium, henceforth otherwise known as Na Li can win a second slam. She's been my favorite female player for a while now, and time is running out for a second Slam. Still though, would probably prefer her career to those of the transition #1 (transitioning from when Serena cared about the regular tour, to the next time Serena cared about the regular tour), Safina, Jankovic Caroline McIlroy.

kingraf wrote:Noticed I got Seven out of eight 4th round predictions, which isn't too bad. Pity I didnt place a progressive parlay bet. Just need Wawrinka to beat Nole and tire himself out doing it, while Berdych somehow needs to beat Ferrer, then I'll feel very confident about my Berdych-Nadal 16/1 final....

I'm hoping Sodium lithium, henceforth otherwise known as Na Li can win a second slam. She's been my favorite female player for a while now, and time is running out for a second Slam. Still though, would probably prefer her career to those of the transition #1 (transitioning from when Serena cared about the regular tour, to the next time Serena cared about the regular tour), Safina, Jankovic Caroline McIlroy.

Danny_1982 wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:Have I missed anything this week?

The greatest performance in memory on the Rod Laver Arena apparently took place on Saturday.

Yes it was mind-boggling with the victor hitting 21 winners and the loser hitting 57 unforced errors.   

If Nadal pooped into a brown paper bag Hawkeye would demand that this masterpiece of modern art be hung at the Pompidou in Paris.

Or she'd turn up at Wimbledon, and hurl it at the defending champion. Keeping some to store on the mantelpiece of course.

What are your QF predictions socal? Worried about Stan or do you think he's had his 2 chances to beat Novak at a slam?

I think short of the final this will be Novak's toughest test. Stan is a different player than the player that Novak racked up an overwhelming H2H against. As I mentioned earlier Stan's big weakness in his game was his passive chip returns off of both sides. When you have a forehand like Novak, and move like Novak and opponent who chips every return back at you is basically cutting his own throat. The last two slams Stan has gone after the return and I think this is why he has all of sudden become a London bound player as opposed to another top 20 or 30 player. 4 or 5 tough sets because Stan's heavy spinning shots and his ability to flatten it out on both ends will cause some damage.

Ferrer v. Berdy: I mean you look at these two and think that Berdy should have the best of it but Ferrer has had the best of their rivalry. I get the feeling though that Ferrer is aging and Berdych is maturing so Berdych in a tough four sets. The thing that hurts Berdy against Ferrer is that he lacks a bit of variety in his game and in particular in his serve. If Ferrer knows that your just going to hit a big flat serve at him all day he can and will break you.

Murray v. Federer: Rog has looked good but I just dont' think he is at the level of the top 3 guys anymore I see murray winning this fairly easily. But it is still Fed if he plays inspired stuff he can take murray out.

Nadal v. Dimitrov: straight sets Nadal. This is not the surface that Dimitrov wants Nadal on. Maybe if he serves well he wins one set. But he has a really poor return and Nadal has been serving extremely well. Dimi did return better against Raonic the ultimate test but he will have to do that more than in one match for me to change my opinion of his return. The chip return works well against a slow mover like Raonic but it is suicidal against Nadal.

Interesting socal. I've gone for Ferrer in 4, Novak in 4, Rafa in 3, Fed in 4. I agree that this is essentially Novak's semi, as he matches up great to the one paced Berdy or Ferrer. I hope they can reproduce the match if a year ago, the best of the year in my opinion. But I think Novak will win a bit more comfortably this time in what will still be a good looking match.

I'm not sure if my negative view of Murray match is realistic or if I'm convincing myself to have low expectations. I agree with what you say about the likes of Murray expected to beat Fed nowadays, but as Murray hasn't played a very good player in a big match for 4 months, I just don't think he'll be match tight. Plus Fed looks good. He looks better.

Dimi I hold little hope for, in spite of the romantic yearning for an upset. Match up wise, experience wise, fitness wise... Just can't see it. Ferrer Berdy.... Much as I like both I don't care for this one. Not sure Novak does either. Vs anyone not top 4 I think it's safer to trust Ferrer.

Danny_1982 wrote:Interesting socal. I've gone for Ferrer in 4, Novak in 4, Rafa in 3, Fed in 4. I agree that this is essentially Novak's semi, as he matches up great to the one paced Berdy or Ferrer. I hope they can reproduce the match if a year ago, the best of the year in my opinion. But I think Novak will win a bit more comfortably this time in what will still be a good looking match.

I'm not sure if my negative view of Murray match is realistic or if I'm convincing myself to have low expectations. I agree with what you say about the likes of Murray expected to beat Fed nowadays, but as Murray hasn't played a very good player in a big match for 4 months, I just don't think he'll be match tight. Plus Fed looks good. He looks better.

Dimi I hold little hope for, in spite of the romantic yearning for an upset. Match up wise, experience wise, fitness wise... Just can't see it. Ferrer Berdy.... Much as I like both I don't care for this one. Not sure Novak does either.  Vs anyone not top 4 I think it's safer to trust Ferrer.

I have feeling that when Murray sees Fed on the other side of the net he will not have any issues getting up for the match. I am sure Andy has been working and training hard for some months and hitting with quality players enough where he is not that rusty. Sure a big match is a whole different animal but Fed has not been in a big match against a top 3 guy for some months himself. I don't see much in Murray's form that connotes rustiness.

Well, I'd certainly rather you end being right rather than me. Not just as a Murray fan, but as a tennis fan who desperately wants to see Murray v Nadal again. Ridiculous they haven't played in 2 and a half years. Even taking into account their injuries.

Even though I wouldn't hold much hope for Murray right now, I want to see how the match up and patterns have changed as they've both adjusted their games a bit since they last met.

I think Murray will hold up well. I'm not sure how much the back injury comes into it as playing Federer these days means there won't be a lot of rallies one way or another... It's definitely about which Fed turns up rather than Murray because Fed on a good day, even at his age, is very difficult to stop but if Shankerer is there then he might get beaten pretty easily. If Murray was fully fit I'd pick him in 3 or 4 but with the back injury that makes it difficult. I'll be optimistic and say Murray in 4 but it's a strange match in that any result to either player wouldn't surprise me too much.

Juan - are you picking both Murray and Feds in 3, 4 and 5? I think that prediction is pretty safe!   

I know what you mean though, so tough to predict. Has it been confirmed as a night match yet? It had bloody better as I've not booked the morning off for nothing!

socal1976 wrote:I am sorry but Dimitrov has no chance against Rafa on this surface, maybe on grass or a low bouncing indoors tournament and not this bouncy, slow outdoor surface. Nadal going to pepper his backhand with his heavy spin forehand till his shoulder collapses. Plus he still doesn't return well enough for me and Nadal is serving brilliantly. Nishikori peppered Nadal's second serve but Nish is a very good returner and Dimitrov is not.

I think this is too harsh on Dimi.  Obviously, he will likely lose, but I think he has some chance to make it competitive.  He played Rafa three times, and while he lost all three, he took a set off Rafa every time too - including on clay.  From what I have seen from him, he improved significantly too.  Of course, this is a slam, and Rafa will be tip top sharp, while the occasion may be overwhelming for Dimi, I just do not think we can dismiss him as lightly as that.

Speaking of Dimi, he will break into top 20 for the first time after the AO.

...and if he wins the title, he will land inside top 10

Well Federer got past Tsonga surprisingly straight forwardly. Federer vs Murray is the tie of the quarter-final. Young Murray should beat the elderly Federer ... unless Federer bedazzles Murray and / or Murray suffers a mental collapse (unlikely but a small twinge to the back might get Murray doubting himself).

Danny_1982 wrote:Has it been confirmed as a night match yet?

Schedule is out and indeed the night match it is.

summerblues wrote:

socal1976 wrote:I am sorry but Dimitrov has no chance against Rafa on this surface, maybe on grass or a low bouncing indoors tournament and not this bouncy, slow outdoor surface. Nadal going to pepper his backhand with his heavy spin forehand till his shoulder collapses. Plus he still doesn't return well enough for me and Nadal is serving brilliantly. Nishikori peppered Nadal's second serve but Nish is a very good returner and Dimitrov is not.

I think this is too harsh on Dimi.  Obviously, he will likely lose, but I think he has some chance to make it competitive.  He played Rafa three times, and while he lost all three, he took a set off Rafa every time too - including on clay.  From what I have seen from him, he improved significantly too.  Of course, this is a slam, and Rafa will be tip top sharp, while the occasion may be overwhelming for Dimi, I just do not think we can dismiss him as lightly as that.

Dimi needs to prove he can return an ATP serve consistently as one of the worst returners in the game by the numbers in 2012 he hasn't done that. Against Raonic he did a great job, I hope he keeps it up and shows that he can return at the top level. Because the serve and the return are the two most important shots in tennis bar none, he will never be a great unless he improves his return, the same can be said for JJ and a few others as well. It is the difference between being an also ran and a champion.

Genie! Genie!.   

Justin Bieber.   

Ferrer and Berdych warming up now on Rod Laver Arena. This is a hard one to call. If Berdych can get his bombs off early in the rallies then for me he could win in straight sets. But if Ferrer can extend the rallies and return to awkward areas of the court then certainly he can make this a gruelling match and the longer it goes the more I'd fancy Ferrer. I will opt for Berdych to win in four sets.

An early break for Berdych and he leads 2-0.

Berdych leads 3-0. I have said it once and I will say it again - Tomas please get rid of the cheap and tacky H&M gear. Surely, a player of his standing in the sport can manage a deal with a proper sports clothing brand.

And Berdych takes a 5-1 lead with another service break.

A comprehensive first set from the Czech. He is nullifying Ferrer's game and Ferrer struggling to hit testing returns. Berdych wins the first set 6-1.

Going with serve in the second set. Ferrer leads 2-1 and seems to be getting a foothold in the match.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Berdych leads 3-0. I have said it once and I will say it again - Tomas please get rid of the cheap and tacky H&M gear. Surely, a player of his standing in the sport can manage a deal with a proper sports clothing brand.

Yep, truly horrendous ensemble today   

I was going to say that it looks like he put together his outfit from a small town charity shop ; but on reflection I think it's safe to say that charity shops don't actually sell such stuff, their policy being to donate it to third-world countries ......

Ferrer looks out of sorts to me an Berdych is not overly impressive but he is at a higher level right now than Ferrer.

A titanic 12 minute game on Ferrers serve ends with a break for Berdych who leads 6-1 4-3.

Right off to work for me. Enjoy the rest of the days tennis.

Take care Craig and don't work too hard remember that Tennis is much more important.

Hopefully Berdy wins in straights sets so I can watch the Djoko match and not have to stay awake into the wee hours of the morning.

Ferrer looking to break back here at 0-40, disappointing from berdbrain.

Can berdbrain hit a forehand other than cross court, it becomes laughable when one of the best players in the world can hit the forehand in only one spot on the court. As I say this berdych breaks right back.

socal1976 wrote:Take care Craig and don't work too hard remember that Tennis is much more important.

Indeed.

Or ..... as Bill Shankly, the legendary, highly successful, manager of Liverpool Football Club famously once said :

"Some people think football is a matter of life & death. I don't agree. It's far more important than that"

lags72 wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Take care Craig and don't work too hard remember that Tennis is much more important.

Indeed.

Or ..... as Bill Shankly, the legendary, highly successful, manager of Liverpool Football Club famously once said :

"Some people think football is a matter of life & death. I don't agree. It's far more important than that"

I have a better quote than that, recently my girlfriend was quite jealous of how I petted the dog, she said "you never massage me like that, and I replied that is because unlike the dog you never know when to shut up. leave it to say that I am in the dog house. Damn her nasty looks and pouting is very sexy I don't tell her this but half the time I piis her off just so she looks at me like that.

Hmm .... that's quite amusing in its own way socal, although to be fair I have to say it's more of a private matter between your GF and yourself  !!  

By contrast, many of Shankly's words (as a quick Google will readily attest) have become the stuff of legend. Do you think the same might happen with your own quotes by any chance ....?

Meanwhile ..... do hope Daveed can take this at least to a fourth. I expected much more from him today.

Well Ferrer takes set #3 and this matches looks like it is getting really interesting. If anyone can lose a two set lead it is definetly Berdych he is just that sort of player unfortunately. As for me and my girlfriend thankfully she understands that 95 percent of what I say is bullsheet, and the other 5 percent is real bullsheet. I can't help it if you leave yourself open for a wise crack whether you are my mother or my girlfriend you get what you get.

lags72 wrote:Hmm .... that's quite amusing in its own way socal, although to be fair I have to say it's more of a private matter between your GF and yourself  !!  

By contrast, many of Shankly's words (as a quick Google will readily attest) have become the stuff of legend. Do you think the same might happen with your own quotes by any chance ....?

Meanwhile ..... do hope Daveed can take this at least to a fourth. I expected much more from him today.

He thinks too high of himself thats the problem   

Back to Ferrer Berdych , Ferrer is coming back with a 3rd set win , come on Ferrer   it out

Ferrer is really bossing the match right now

invisiblecoolers wrote:

lags72 wrote:Hmm .... that's quite amusing in its own way socal, although to be fair I have to say it's more of a private matter between your GF and yourself  !!  

By contrast, many of Shankly's words (as a quick Google will readily attest) have become the stuff of legend. Do you think the same might happen with your own quotes by any chance ....?

Meanwhile ..... do hope Daveed can take this at least to a fourth. I expected much more from him today.

He thinks too high of himself thats the problem   

Back to Ferrer Berdych , Ferrer is coming back with a 3rd set win , come on Ferrer   it out

Thinks too high of himself ?..... I'm assuming this must be a reference to Daveed, invisible ....... ??

You surely can't be talking about socal  ?   

Only Berdy can defeat Beckovic so go Berdy (not that I like him 1 bit)

Berdych will get opened up like a tin of beans against Djokovic like he always does. Only Wawrinka, Nadal, or Murray can stop Djoko. Berdy has always been Novak's patsy and always will be.

Wow Genie bouchard is really freaking hot, what a cute smile. I'd like to spend a long canadian winter indoors with her and a case of whiskey. Who cares if it is dark by 200 pm.

Hmm... Ivanovic and Bouchard ..... IMO they're about as hot as each other, I'm struggling to decide which I prefer. Think I would have to invite BOTH of them to my log cabin.

And I know of no reason why they might refuse ........ 

Well we are getting ready for the big one although i will have to watch it tomorrow as I have to wake up early and have had too many adult beverages to stay awake much past midnight our time.

Come on Stan, roll him like a pastry.