Australian Open Round 4 (Days 7 and 8)

First topic message reminder :

So the tournament proper starts and the round of 16 in the men's singles looks to have more or less all that could be hoped. All the main challengers bar Potro are still there, Dimitrov may finally be justifying the hype and a couple of surprise packages in fine form in Bautista-Agut and Mayer.

Bottom Half

Djokovic v. Fognini (H2H 6-0) [RLA - not before 2.30pm]

The first meeting between them at slam level, after the match that never was at RG. Fognini is playing well and was impressive beating Querrey in straights in R3. However, for all his mercurial skills, he has 9 games in his last 6 sets versus the Djoker. Straight sets to Novak.

Wawrinka v. Robredo (H2H 1-6) [RLA - second night match]

Stan's only win over Tommy was in 2007 and he was beaten twice in 2013. Will Stan's walkover in r3 hurt him? Robredo was very impressive in beating Gasquet. However, I think Stan probably has the form to overcome the head to head but it won't be easy. Stan in 5.

Ferrer v. Mayer (H2H 4-3) [Hisense - after legends doubles and ladies singles]

Mayer has been in terrific form so far this year and comfortably beat Ferrer in Shanghai in their last match. His big serving and variety of shots can cause the more consistent Ferrer problems. I haven't seen much of Ferrer this tournament but I just get the feeling he isn't quite at his best. Going for the upset here - Mayer in 4.

Berdych v. Anderson (H2H 9-0) [Margaret Court - not before 5pm]

Big Kev must be fed up of the sight of Berdych. All 9 meetings have been in the last 2 years and this will be the 5th at slam level. Berdych looks ominously good and Anderson doesn't have the skills to change his game up to overcome the H2H. Big Berd in 3 sets.

Top Half

Nadal v. Nishikori (H2H 5-0) [RLA afternoon match - after two ladies singles]

Nishikori looked very smooth in crushing Donald Young after trailing in the first set but that was against Donald Young. Serve remains a weakness and he doesn't have the reach or power to bother Rafa. Rafa in 3.

Federer v. Tsonga (H2H 9-4) [RLA evening session first match]

The match of the round by a distance. Neither player has yet dropped a set and both have looked impressive. Will Fed's new racquet hold up to the pressure of facing a top guy. I'm not sure. Fed won in 5 in Australia last year but Tsonga recovered to win in straights on the clay of Roland Garros. This is very tough to call but I think there are more questions about Fed. I'm going for Tsonga in 4 tough sets.

Murray v. Robert (H2H 0-0) [Hisense - not before 4 30pm]

Unlikely to be much to see here. Robert as a lucky loser has done exceptionally well to reach this point and he does have a reputation for beating British players (but at a rather lower level). He is solid but has no real weapons. Murray in 3.

Dimitrov v. Bautista Agut (H2H 0-1) [Grandstand - not before 1pm]

The only match without at least one of the players seeded to make R4 but it could be a classic. Both have looked very impressive with B-A backing up his stunning win over Del-po with a crushing win over Paire. Dimitrov outclassed Raonic in 4 sets with only Raonic's serve keeping it close. Interesting their one match at the end of last year was won easily by Bautista-Agut. I just wonder whether Dimitrov's nerve might fail him on the brink of a slam QF. Going with the underdog in 5.

Ladies

Williams v. Ivanovic : Serena in 2
Li Na v. Makarova : Li Na in 3
Kerber v. Pennetta : Pennetta in 3
Bouchard v, Dellacqua : Bouchard in 2

Azarenka v. Stephens : Azarenka in 3
Sharapova v. Cibulkova : Sharapova in 3
Radwanska v. Muguruza : Radwanska in 2
Jankovic v. Halep : Halep in 2

Has Wawrinka ever even won a set against Nadal before?

break_in_the_fifth wrote:Has Wawrinka ever even won a set against Nadal before?

nope. though he did lose 7-6 7-6 in London last year, so he's not a million miles away.

never

I think that the last time Nadal will have felt like this was when he and his camp watched Fed beat Djoko in the RG 2011 Semi's.

He is now the prohibitive favourite to win this tournament.

Can a easy draw screw you up to and make you unprepared for tough match? Not so nice draw then.

Djokovic should really have figured Wawrinka out by now so his draw was still in theory easier.

If Fed beats Murray then he will have made his 11th consecutive AO semi.

What an epic win for Stan and nobody could begrudge him if he went on to win his first slam here. As for Novak it is a loss that continues a worrying recent trend. Tight five set matches of great importance used to be bread and butter to him but now he is on a run of losing these matches. That is something he and Boris need to work on as it is becoming consistent.

Well done again Stan.

break_in_the_fifth wrote:Djokovic should really have figured Wawrinka out by now so his draw was still in theory easier.

Or maybe Wawrinka has now figured out Djokovic ........

Jahu wrote:Can a easy draw screw you up to and make you unprepared for tough match? Not so nice draw then.

Nothing to do with the draw or being unprepared. Simply an opponent who was better on the day, aided by the now standard apalling service game that gifts a break.

HM Murdoch wrote:

Jahu wrote:Can a easy draw screw you up to and make you unprepared for tough match? Not so nice draw then.

Nothing to do with the draw or being unprepared. Simply an opponent who was better on the day, aided by the now standard apalling service game that gifts a break.

yeah that game at 2-1 (?) in the final set was truly awful. Novak had all the momentum but gifted it straight back with as bad a service game as I've seen him play.

Stan is the one guy outside the traditional big 4 that can challenge Novak in the big matches, as proved by the last year. So it was good as a viewer that he ended up in Novak's half. However that was the only match before the final that I could see him being pushed at all, so I still think he'd have been quite happy with his projected path.

I like Novak a lot, but this is good for tennis. In the last year Novak, Rafa, Roger and Andy have all been knocked out of slams before the semis. Wasn't long ago that the 4 of them seemed to be there all the time. If Andy doesn't win it (and I don't think he will) I hope Stan goes on to win it... But whilst he has arrived, he still hasn't beaten Rafa yet and I think he'll have to do that to win it.

I was working with the assumption based on achievements that Djokovic is the better player. Just because he lost doesn't make his draw harder. Fair enough though I don't really buy into that assumption anyway, I just think if Wawrinka had figured him out then a whole bunch of other players should have done as well.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:yeah that game at 2-1 (?) in the final set was truly awful. Novak had all the momentum but gifted it straight back with as bad a service game as I've seen him play.

I wish I could understand where his mind goes when that happens. It happens pretty frequently. He'll have the momentum and then suddenly get broken to love.

That was the point where I knew Stan would win. He was so tough to break today, Novak wasn't going to get away with giving one straight back.

Unfortunately I didn't get to see Wawrinka v Djokovic match, but well done to Stan - when he's on song he's probably my favourite player to watch on tour right now. Provided we don't get a one-sided final, it actually makes a nice change to have someone other then Djokovic winning Aus Open this year.

Nadal has to be the favourite now - looking at the draw with 3 single-handers left, I wonder when was the last time someone with a single-handed backhand beat Nadal - presumably Federer couple of years ago?

A bit of a Fed syndrome? Match points and lose the match?

break_in_the_fifth wrote:I was working with the assumption based on achievements that Djokovic is the better player. Just because he lost doesn't make his draw harder. Fair enough though I don't really buy into that assumption anyway, I just think if Wawrinka had figured him out then a whole bunch of other players should have done as well.

Sure, I understand the fundamental point you make bitf.

But as regards "a whole bunch of other players" figuring him out (or maybe not, as it would seem ....) well, we often talk about good and bad 'match-ups' do we not ..... ??

And maybe, just maybe, Stan will become a serious problem for Novak in the longer term .....

Murray needs to beat Federer IMO for this to not be Rafa's. Just as Djokovic is still Rafa's kryptonite (plus massive raw power forehanders, but there are none of those left at this point, really, Birdy is the closest thing left and he won't beat Nadal) unless Rafa really raises his game, so too a SHBH has to have the game of their lives to put him away. It's statistically so one-sided across all of the SHBH players, even with Fed in there, that I just can't see one beating him

As many are pointing out this does help Nadal greatly but I'm still intrigued to see how his match with Dimitrov goes. He looked sharp in his last match and Nadal looked laboured, if that continues he is in with a shout and he always picks up a set from Nadal if I'm not mistaken.

Federer and Murray is the real test for Murrays comeback. I'll go with Federer in four.

lags72 wrote:And maybe, just maybe, Stan will become a serious problem for Novak in the longer term .....

Novak's bigger problem is himself.

Novak actually won more points than Stan today (161 v 153), so I don't see this as a match up problem. The difference between them today was that Stan was able to hang tough whilst Novak rather bungled key moments.

And, it must be said, the bungling of big moments has become too frequent. Too many sets have been lost from leading positions, too many breaks have been given away out of the blue.

He's a great player, no doubt. But, in what should be his peak years, he's now at 1 slam win in the last 8.

Well, I stand thoroughly corrected. Thought Novak would cruise it in four, despite knowing that Stan can cause issues when on his day. Very similar match to last in scoreline and even order of sets. I didn't get to watch it, was taking my students on a trip to the Royal Albert Hall - thought I had my priorities right originally, not so sure now!

Commiserations to you HM (and slasher & socal), thank you for accepting defeat as graciously as your favourite player does    don't worry, he's far from done in the tennis world. It was a phenomenal run at the AO regardless of this defeat, three straight wins will take a while to be beaten.

If Nadal wins AO he will have 15130 and Djoko 10620.

Has anyone ever had 15K points?

Silver wrote: he's far from done in the tennis world.

Cheers Silver But I rather suspect that, at the slams at least, he may well be.

There's no avoiding now the the gradual but consistent downward slide since AO12.

He'll be there or thereabouts of course, he's a great player.

But if the ages of 25 and 26, in which he was injury free and when main rivals were injured or getting older, only produced one slam in eight, it seems rather wishful to expect an upturn in this as he gets older.

I think people saying that Wawrinka has figured out djokovic is an exaggeration, the head to head is 15-3 !!! He definitely raises his game for the slams but Djokovic beat wawrinka with ease in the semis of the world tour finals just a couple of months ago.

Credit where its due for wawrinka, djokovic has tormented him for years winning 14 in a row. It had to come to an end sooner or later, nobody beats stan 15 times in a row

I think novak did well to take him to 5, was looking at the end of the 3rd set that wawrinka would win in 4. There is no shame in losing to stan the man, he is improving all the time and is a top player. Just hope he keeps it going now and wins the tournament.

I can see the thinking, but the players around him are also all getting older, including the entirety of the top 10. At varying points, all of the top players have been 'done', particularly Federer over the last year and Nadal back in 2012, but they always seem to come back. Hopefully Novak can regroup and figure out how to get the focus back.

I do get the sense that Novak is unwilling (unable?) to plumb the depths of mental and physical reserves that allowed him to dominate in 2011, though. He's finding out that winning 2-3 slams a year is freakishly difficult, and very much not the norm. Nevertheless, I suspect he'll always be a contender at every slam, he's just too good a player not to be. We need a thread on this!

Incidentally, the threat to the 'consecutive slam SF' record has been ended with this defeat. It's a shame, I wanted to see how close Novak could get.

slashermcguirk wrote:I think people saying that Wawrinka has figured out djokovic is an exaggeration, the head to head is 15-3 !!! He definitely raises his game for the slams but Djokovic beat wawrinka with ease in the semis of the world tour finals just a couple of months ago.

Credit where its due for wawrinka, djokovic has tormented him for years winning 14 in a row. It had to come to an end sooner or later, nobody beats stan 15 times in a row

I think novak did well to take him to 5, was looking at the end of the 3rd set that wawrinka would win in 4. There is no shame in losing to stan the man, he is improving all the time and is  a top player. Just hope he keeps it going now and wins the tournament.

Lucky for Rafa he is only looking at 13 in a row

Silver wrote:I do get the sense that Novak is unwilling (unable?) to plumb the depths of mental and physical reserves that allowed him to dominate in 2011, though.

I feel that was true in 2012. I felt at RG12 v Rafa and v Fed at W12 that he was unable to raise himself when the tide was against him.

Last year and today were different though. I don't think he ever ducks a battle or stops fighting. It's the weird lapses that are doing for him now. I don't know what causes these lapses. It doesn't look like nerves because they are often bookended by very good play. Plus they also occur when he has games virtually won against low ranked players.

I'm at a loss to explain it.

HM Murdoch wrote:

Silver wrote:I do get the sense that Novak is unwilling (unable?) to plumb the depths of mental and physical reserves that allowed him to dominate in 2011, though.

I feel that was true in 2012. I felt at RG12 v Rafa and v Fed at W12 that he was unable to raise himself when the tide was against him.

Last year and today were different though. I don't think he ever ducks a battle or stops fighting. It's the weird lapses that are doing for him now. I don't know what causes these lapses. It doesn't look like nerves because they are often bookended by very good play. Plus they also occur when he has games virtually won against low ranked players.

I'm at a loss to explain it.

Maybe he's not enjoying playing any more? He's had a long time with no break, compared to all of the top 10 really. Burn out?

I still think Novak is brilliant, he's just not as super confident as 2011. He won a lot of close matches that year, he's now losing some close matches (apart from the W final) and that's the only difference.

I don't think it's much else than that. 1 win in 8 is worrying for Novak admittedly, but reports of his demise will prove to be premature I think.

I don't think anyone is saying demise. That cant be said for many more years.

What the consensus is that he has lost a little trust on tight points.

He did it, he f*****g did it!
Now dimi just needs to beat Nadal, Stan to beat Berdych and Feds to play dimi in the semi.
Happy, dreamy days

Jahu wrote:I don't think anyone is saying demise. That cant be said for many more years.

What the consensus is that he has lost a little trust on tight points.

Jahu, when you're not commenting on how ugly Novak's ears are, you make some pretty accurate comments.  

HM, you know my words are just a momentarily mood balance

I think Stan deserves a GS now. No one cares if Rafa or Fed wins here, its just numbers, Fed fans being scared Rafa will overtake Fed, and Fed fans scared of the same.

Berdy is an annoying little arrogant czech foamy lager, Murray will fold to Fed, so that leaves Stan to get the GS as a little hard work gift for last 2 years of improvements.

If Rafa faces a SHBH is the QF, SF and F, then I'm giving up on tennis.

Hahahah, DHBH should be banned for men. So girly, so left to WTA only.

But honestly, I'm tired of these 4 guys getting all GS.

In the 2014 socal prediction thread, Silver wrote:AO: Novak

And...Stan to make his first slam final!

Come on Stan, make me look like a genius!

(We'll all tacitly agree to ignore the first prediction, right?

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! HE DID IT!

So happy for Stan after losing that heartbreaker last year. Hope he wins it now.

What's the deal with Berdy, he seems ok on Twitter?

Jahu wrote:Hahahah, DHBH should be banned for men. So girly, so left to WTA only.

But honestly, I'm tired of these 4 guys getting all GS.

I reckon if Murray beats Nadal, Stan or Berdy can take Murray in the final

Danny_1982 wrote:Juan - are you picking both Murray and Feds in 3, 4 and 5? I think that prediction is pretty safe!   

I know what you mean though, so tough to predict. Has it been confirmed as a night match yet? It had bloody better as I've not booked the morning off for nothing!

Yeah!! You know what I mean though, any result wouldn't be a massive surprise.

Stan, Stan, he'll win the Grand Slam! Maybe not but if Murray doesn't do it, I really hope Stan does. We'll see how Nadal's body is holding up because if he's off his game, Stan may well have him in the final (I'm feeling reasonably confident Stan will beat Berdych).

Great match a tough loss, but Stan deserved it he played the match of his life and hey its tennis sometimes you win sometimes you lose. Novak again gave up an early lead in the 5th but I am sure he will round into shape and comeback from this loss.

Stan may have just reversed a trend against Djokovic, but at least he had beaten him before and pushed him close recently. Rafa is 12-0 against him and has never ever given him a set...

Very sanguine, Socal. I feel much the same. I can't begrudge Stan the win because he played great tennis today. One of my favourite players to watch.

I'm really peeved about Novak throwing that break away though. It's becoming boringly frequent.

Murdoch, crazy sheet happens in a five setter and Novak just got by stan in the last two. I think he let his emotions overtake him a bit late in that match he was serving really well and putting stan under pressure in every service game but Stan was the one who kept his cool. Djokovic will be back and will lift major trophies again. It is funny how everyone comes out of the woodwork when he loses to say I told you so. He has nothing to prove to any of the critics they were writing him off before. His ball striking is fine I honestly don't see any weaknesses their I think he is just not competing as well in the big points as he was in 2011 and early 2012. That can be fixed because we know he has been better than this before and that he works tirelessly at his profession. Good job Stan and good luck to him.

Stan would of beaten anyone today.

P.S. Just watched Ferret pushing mafia style the line judge so he could park his towel. Very nasty as I held Ferret as the best behaved player on tour. What a shame.

I don't quite agree socal...for a player like him who was #1 until recently and in his prime its very odd that right now he's slamless. Losing the way he did on MP with an easy putaway volley will hurt...he'll fret over what it meant mentally and those little gremlins will eat away. The ball striking ability is irrelevant if the mind starts to get the yips under severe pressure...which only came in that very last game. I think there's a deeper issue & picture going on.

If everyone is going to conclude that Djokovic isn't the player he was, are we into weak era territory yet?

Logic:

Djokovic poor by 2011 standards
Ferrer. I mean, just Ferrer, almost 32, at #3. Come on.
Federer deep into steep terminal decline
No new talent at all.

Rafa must be licking his chops!

Seriously though, isn't this what some have been warning of as the game changed?

If it's weak era now, does it becoming more competitive in say a year's time if Rafa had to retire make it weaker or stronger by virtue of the competition?

ChequeredJersey wrote:If it's weak era now, does it becoming more competitive in say a year's time if Rafa had to retire make it weaker or stronger by virtue of the competition?

Exactly, it's all b*llocks isn't it?

My serious observation is that players are dropping out of the game and not being supplanted by new blood. That's an objective measure, and a problem some predicted.