Australian Open Round 4 (Days 7 and 8)

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So the tournament proper starts and the round of 16 in the men's singles looks to have more or less all that could be hoped. All the main challengers bar Potro are still there, Dimitrov may finally be justifying the hype and a couple of surprise packages in fine form in Bautista-Agut and Mayer.

Bottom Half

Djokovic v. Fognini (H2H 6-0) [RLA - not before 2.30pm]

The first meeting between them at slam level, after the match that never was at RG. Fognini is playing well and was impressive beating Querrey in straights in R3. However, for all his mercurial skills, he has 9 games in his last 6 sets versus the Djoker. Straight sets to Novak.

Wawrinka v. Robredo (H2H 1-6) [RLA - second night match]

Stan's only win over Tommy was in 2007 and he was beaten twice in 2013. Will Stan's walkover in r3 hurt him? Robredo was very impressive in beating Gasquet. However, I think Stan probably has the form to overcome the head to head but it won't be easy. Stan in 5.

Ferrer v. Mayer (H2H 4-3) [Hisense - after legends doubles and ladies singles]

Mayer has been in terrific form so far this year and comfortably beat Ferrer in Shanghai in their last match. His big serving and variety of shots can cause the more consistent Ferrer problems. I haven't seen much of Ferrer this tournament but I just get the feeling he isn't quite at his best. Going for the upset here - Mayer in 4.

Berdych v. Anderson (H2H 9-0) [Margaret Court - not before 5pm]

Big Kev must be fed up of the sight of Berdych. All 9 meetings have been in the last 2 years and this will be the 5th at slam level. Berdych looks ominously good and Anderson doesn't have the skills to change his game up to overcome the H2H. Big Berd in 3 sets.

Top Half

Nadal v. Nishikori (H2H 5-0) [RLA afternoon match - after two ladies singles]

Nishikori looked very smooth in crushing Donald Young after trailing in the first set but that was against Donald Young. Serve remains a weakness and he doesn't have the reach or power to bother Rafa. Rafa in 3.

Federer v. Tsonga (H2H 9-4) [RLA evening session first match]

The match of the round by a distance. Neither player has yet dropped a set and both have looked impressive. Will Fed's new racquet hold up to the pressure of facing a top guy. I'm not sure. Fed won in 5 in Australia last year but Tsonga recovered to win in straights on the clay of Roland Garros. This is very tough to call but I think there are more questions about Fed. I'm going for Tsonga in 4 tough sets.

Murray v. Robert (H2H 0-0) [Hisense - not before 4 30pm]

Unlikely to be much to see here. Robert as a lucky loser has done exceptionally well to reach this point and he does have a reputation for beating British players (but at a rather lower level). He is solid but has no real weapons. Murray in 3.

Dimitrov v. Bautista Agut (H2H 0-1) [Grandstand - not before 1pm]

The only match without at least one of the players seeded to make R4 but it could be a classic. Both have looked very impressive with B-A backing up his stunning win over Del-po with a crushing win over Paire. Dimitrov outclassed Raonic in 4 sets with only Raonic's serve keeping it close. Interesting their one match at the end of last year was won easily by Bautista-Agut. I just wonder whether Dimitrov's nerve might fail him on the brink of a slam QF. Going with the underdog in 5.

Ladies

Williams v. Ivanovic : Serena in 2
Li Na v. Makarova : Li Na in 3
Kerber v. Pennetta : Pennetta in 3
Bouchard v, Dellacqua : Bouchard in 2

Azarenka v. Stephens : Azarenka in 3
Sharapova v. Cibulkova : Sharapova in 3
Radwanska v. Muguruza : Radwanska in 2
Jankovic v. Halep : Halep in 2

It's quite ironic that Rafa is the guy poised to profit from what might be a legitimate transition era, given the fact that he wasn't even supposed to last this long..

lydian wrote:I don't quite agree socal...for a player like him who was #1 until recently and in his prime its very odd that right now he's slamless. Losing the way he did on MP with an easy putaway volley will hurt...he'll fret over what it meant mentally and those little gremlins will eat away. The ball striking ability is irrelevant if the mind starts to get the yips under severe pressure...which only came in that very last game. I think there's a deeper issue & picture going on.

I agree that he has been slamless for awhile but really look at Agassi or many other pros would sometimes go years without winning and then have a burst. He has been very close on a number of occassions and has come up just a tiny bit short. Now I look at that similarly to Lendl and Murray early on in their career you can look at these close losses as a sign of a player who can't win or you can look at it as a player who has played in 3 slam finals in the each of the last two years and thus he is very close to breaking through with a point or two here and there. It could be that he has hit the wall or it could be that he is super close to where he is got to be and has lost just a tiny bit of focus and belief in crucial situations. Maybe he will never get it back, but from what I have seen from him as a player and the resilience he has shown I think he will work it all out and win some big trophies.

kingraf wrote:It's quite ironic that Rafa is the guy poised to profit from what might be a legitimate transition era, given the fact that he wasn't even supposed to last this long..

What transition era, Djokovic lost a match, did he die or something? And what happened to Murray and Nadal. Transition era would be an era with either 1 or zero great players( see circa 2000-07) with Pete and Andre in their 30s and nothing of similar quality in the wings till fed showed up.

Great result - did not expect it at all.  I was sure that after the last year's AO and USO, Novak would be careful and will not underestimate him.  It looks like it may not be about being careful - Stan may simply be good enough to take Novak on.

Or that Novak is just not mentally as assured as he once was in his pomp. That is the key. This match followed a similar pattern to their last three slam meetings. The difference? Novak is losing key points which lose you these type of matches.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Or that Novak is just not mentally as assured as he once was in his pomp. That is the key. This match followed a similar pattern to their last three slam meetings. The difference? Novak is losing key points which lose you these type of matches.

Frankly it is bizarre he went from mental giant to having the yips in crucial situations. I don't know how to explain it because in many ways I think he is a better player than in the past but finds away to self destruct on the big points. In tennis it is all how you play the big points and he has been terrible in the last couple of years in that department and if anything is getting worse. We will see what develops. I have faith in him because he has faced adversity in the past and prevailed and because he is not that far off right now. The guy has played in an extraordinary amount of grandslam finals the last 3 years, and hasn't won enough of them, but he has been there and been in winning positions so the margin is not that big.