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SF1: South Africa v New Zealand, 24 October

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Post by George Carlin Mon 19 Oct 2015, 7:11 am

SF1: South Africa v New Zealand, 24 October  Spring11             SF1: South Africa v New Zealand, 24 October  Nz_pro13
SOUTH AFRICA v NEW ZEALAND

24 October 2015
16:00 BST (UTC+01)
Twickenham, London

Live on [TBC]

Ref: Jérôme Garcès (France)
ARs: Romain Poite (Poite) & John Lacey (Ireland)
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)

A. Head to Head

90 Played 90
35 Won 52
3 Drawn 3
52 Lost 35
1412 Points 1745

B. Recent Form

25 July 2015
Emirates Airline Park, Johannesburg
20 – 27 to New Zealand

4 October 2014
Ellis Park Stadium, Johannesburg
27 – 25 to South Africa

13 September 2014
Westpac Stadium, Wellington
14 – 10 to New Zealand

5 October 2013
Ellis Park Stadium, Johannesburg
27 – 38 to New Zealand

14 September 2013
Eden Park, Auckland
29 – 15 to New Zealand

6 October 2012
FNB Stadium, Johannesburg
16 – 32 to New Zealand

15 September 2012
Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
21 – 11 to New Zealand

20 August 2011
Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
18 – 5 to South Africa

30 July 2011
Westpac Stadium, Wellington
40 – 7 to New Zealand

C. TEAMS:

SOUTH AFRICA
SF1: South Africa v New Zealand, 24 October  Kandac10
01 Tendai Mtawarira
02 Bismarck du Plessis
03 Frans Malherbe
04 Eben Etzebeth
05 Lood de Jager
06 Francois Louw
07 Schalk Burger
08 Duane Vermeulen

09 Fourie du Preez (captain)
10 Handre Pollard
11 Bryan Habana
12 Damian de Allende
13 Jesse Kriel
14 JP Pietersen
15 Willie le Roux

16 Adriaan Strauss
17 Trevor Nyakane
18 Jannie du Plessis
19 Victor Matfield
20 Willem Alberts
21 Ruan Pienaar
22 Pat Lambie
23 Jan Serfontein.

NEW ZEALAND
SF1: South Africa v New Zealand, 24 October  Lucy-l10
[TBC]


Last edited by George Carlin on Thu 22 Oct 2015, 6:29 am; edited 2 times in total
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Post by yappysnap Mon 19 Oct 2015, 2:52 pm

NZ win here i'm afraid.

Real question is can SA make a game of it or will NZ run away with it.

I'd love a SA win to shake the tournament up a little but just can't see it, they look too out of sorts in the backs and their forwards while physical seem lazy at times. Gameplan is a bit out of date too.

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Post by FerN Mon 19 Oct 2015, 3:19 pm

yappysnap wrote:NZ win here i'm afraid.

Real question is can SA make a game of it or will NZ run away with it.

I'd love a SA win to shake the tournament up a little but just can't see it, they look too out of sorts in the backs and their forwards while physical seem lazy at times. Gameplan is a bit out of date too.

We will make a game of it, but I just can't see us winning this one. Maybe you never know, we are due. We are more defensive, so the game should be lower scoring. We just give a way too many penalties, even if they don't get a try we leave enough points on the park.

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Post by Biltong Mon 19 Oct 2015, 3:22 pm

If we play crap we will lose by 15, if we play well we will lose by 6
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Post by kingraf Mon 19 Oct 2015, 3:26 pm

the real question is how long will it be a contest for? I'd say about 65 minutes. And then they pull away. Meyer gives some impassioned speech about how we were 15 minutes away from a win. The public take comfort in it and we spend the next four years continuing to lose to NZ by a converted try. bookmark it
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Post by Biltong Mon 19 Oct 2015, 3:44 pm

Under jake white

SA 3 wins
NZ 6 wins

Average score NZ 28 -'22 SA

Under PDV
SA 5 wins
NZ 6 wins

Avergae score NZ 25 - 19

Under Heyneke Meyer

SA 1 win
NZ 6 wins

Average score NZ 26 - 18 SA
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Post by fa0019 Mon 19 Oct 2015, 3:58 pm

I'm quite positive about this game.

Should the boks win... no. Can the boks win... yes and its not a yes, on our day hit and hope. They have a good chance... 30/70 to 40/60 in my eyes.

France made NZ look pretty good, this is a similar team which England put 50 on 6 months ago when they wanted something and France couldn't be bothered.  NZ didn't do anything spectacular. Probably half their points France gifted to them, half they scored through class play (still 30 points mind).

The boks played NZ a few months ago and were leading until 60. They were in the middle of their lull then. Now they're on the up. I think they can do it. The conditions should help them a little too.

The best time to play NZ is when they are on the up with wind in their sails. The worst time is to play them with fire in their bellies. Sure you can say, NZ always have fire in their bellies but you don't want to face a NZ team with a point to prove.

Bit of hope yes and if both teams play their best... NZ will win. But rarely do teams do so and I've seen enough of positive things from the boks to think they are more than capable of getting a win.
They need to play well though. Pollard needs to hit his kicks. I'd almost be tempted to bring back Morne and drop Lambie. Why else bring him.

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Post by disneychilly Mon 19 Oct 2015, 4:11 pm

The team most capable of upsetting the NZ apple cart is our greatest foe. And I can't pick it based on the history. It's 1-1 in knockout games but it almost feels like there are caveats to the previous games-we all know about 95 and 03 was the worst Bok side I think I've ever seen. She'll be an absolute humdinger. Hoping that everyone is fit. De Jager is crucial as is NMS for NZ as the Blacks will fancy their chances of winning quick ruck ball a lot more with Matfield there, and the Boks will kick to Naholo and test out his handling which isn't as good as NMS (the SWB try bomb aside).

If NZ blitz the Boks with great ball in 20 it will leave the last 20 open to exploit space. The ABs will want to keep up with SA's physicality at least, and they will want to suck the Boks into a frantic but accurate game from the word go. Expect Carter to minimise touch finding and find either space or air with chasers. They don't want SA to maul/gain penalty/kick it out/lineout/repeat cycle.

This is made for Daniel Carter. For SA he is the most dangerous guy on the pitch. End of.

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Post by fa0019 Mon 19 Oct 2015, 4:42 pm

disneychilly wrote:The team most capable of upsetting the NZ apple cart is our greatest foe. And I can't pick it based on the history. It's 1-1 in knockout games but it almost feels like there are caveats to the previous games-we all know about 95 and 03 was the worst Bok side I think I've ever seen. She'll be an absolute humdinger. Hoping that everyone is fit. De Jager is crucial as is NMS for NZ as the Blacks will fancy their chances of winning quick ruck ball a lot more with Matfield there, and the Boks will kick to Naholo and test out his handling which isn't as good as NMS (the SWB try bomb aside).

If NZ blitz the Boks with great ball in 20 it will leave the last 20 open to exploit space. The ABs will want to keep up with SA's physicality at least, and they will want to suck the Boks into a frantic but accurate game from the word go. Expect Carter to minimise touch finding and find either space or air with chasers. They don't want SA to maul/gain penalty/kick it out/lineout/repeat cycle.

This is made for Daniel Carter. For SA he is the most dangerous guy on the pitch. End of.

Come on Disney.... little bit of engineering there.... you forgot the 99 deadrubber! 2-1!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Seriously though, that match was meaningless. Bissie has to play for 80 mins though. Strauss does offer ball carrying but Bissie's ruck work is the best in the team.. and it will be needed against McCaw and co.

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Post by disneychilly Mon 19 Oct 2015, 4:49 pm

Yeah you're right on Bismarck-NZ respect and fear him but don't feel the same about Strauss-glorious sidestep and all Wink Since Brüssow isn't there you need Louw and Bismarck everywhere-because NZ will look to employ the same pace they did in that first half against France.

Yeah FA we've also beaten France and Scotland in two of those dead rubber games and I think they are a waste of time. I scarcely recognise them as test matches.

Again if SA is doing well at gainline I expect SBW to come on for Smith and not Nonu. Plus with Carter's kicking forcing the wings back there is a chance for Savea to break his duck if they do manage to get the ball wide past the SA rush defence.

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Post by emack2 Tue 20 Oct 2015, 12:01 am

As I understand it both sides have injury problems SA,With Bismarck Du Plessis,De Jager,
and Matfield.NZ Crockett and Milner -Skudder,Moody starting with Ben Franks as sub
could do the job.But Naholo?nothing I`ve seen inspires me to think he could finish a
match.
Slade at 15 ,Ben Smith on the wing ,wish Izzie Dagg was here but he`s injured anyway.
SA can play either there traditional style,or run it they have that game to,a great backrow
plus several goalkickers.
IF its within 10 points with 10 minutes to go bet on the BLACK.

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Post by blackcanelion Tue 20 Oct 2015, 7:45 am

Big game. Could go either way. No worries about the boks not getting up for it.

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Post by Taylorman Tue 20 Oct 2015, 8:25 am

This is our final. If Argie beat Oz then we should be ok and I don't think oz will survive a fifth must win in a row match given they've struggled the last two. Despite avoiding SA and NZ on way to the final they've still had it tough

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Post by Gooseberry Tue 20 Oct 2015, 8:31 am

Given how medicore SA have been so far its hard to see past NZ who seem to be cruising it. Historical results are one thing, but looking at the quality and form of the teams lining up thsi cup theres a clear favourite.

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Post by blackcanelion Tue 20 Oct 2015, 8:33 am

Biggest issue for NZ might be in the scrum. Think Crockett isn't going to make it. To late to see Laulala called in, he's a beast. Apparently Naholo's been on fire at practice, hasn't been able to transfer it onto the field yet.

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Post by blackcanelion Tue 20 Oct 2015, 8:35 am

Gooseberry wrote:Given how medicore SA have been so far its hard to see past NZ who seem to be cruising it. Historical results are one thing, but looking at the quality and form of the teams lining up thsi cup theres a clear favourite.

I have no doubt South Africa will play substantially better than they have so far in this cup. I think they'll pick it up a few notches from last weekend.


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Post by offload Tue 20 Oct 2015, 8:49 am

These two teams have produced some of the best test matches ever and are rarely one sided. I'm hoping for a cracker.
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Post by George Carlin Tue 20 Oct 2015, 8:53 am

Surprisingly negative from SA fans here.
Surely they have a puncher's chance at least.

They can rough up that AB pack - there is no doubt about that and their set piece has been rock solid. Let's see what happens. Pressure does funny things to people.
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Post by Guest Tue 20 Oct 2015, 8:59 am

Dont buy into the phoney war George

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Post by Biltong Tue 20 Oct 2015, 9:07 am

South Africa was mediocre against Japan.

"Given how mediocre SA have been"

One match mate, one match.
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Post by fa0019 Tue 20 Oct 2015, 9:20 am

I don't think so. Realistic yes. Down and out no.

The boks probably have the best chance of anyone to beat NZ. They're playing reasonably well. They certainly have to improve, by quite a margin but they always front up vs. NZ so I don't doubt they won't turn up.

I'd say its 35/65 in NZ favour. Still a few issues over Kriel in defence, Pollard isn't firing and Meyer still tends to make substitutions based on the clock rather whats going on in the field. I think Morne should take Lambie's place on the bench. In last 20 if you need a man to kick a pen or land a drop goal then there is no one better in world rugby then Morne.

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Post by disneychilly Tue 20 Oct 2015, 9:42 am

Damn straight FA. SA are not only NZ's greatest rival, but they have the best WC record. If they can impose themselves the game is made for them. They have to stop NZ playing expansively though. Also NZ has lifted in the last 20 against SA in the last three games at Ellis Park so that has to be negated. Interesting call on Morne. I think Carter is just huge here-and he stepped up BIG TIME in the QF. You have to bury him but that starts from the pack. France weren't necessarily poor in the collisions but NZ were so fired up they just smashed anyone and Smith got it on a platter. If he gets that platform Carter will pull the strings and keep the tempo going until you break.

Either way I hope that it's not decided by a ref's call. These two great teams and the great game itself deserve better.

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Post by blackcanelion Tue 20 Oct 2015, 9:49 am

I wonder how easy it is to peak consistently. NZ peaked last week against France, can they do it again. same goes for Argentina. To me neither South Africa and Australia played well last weekend. I wonder if there's a bit of a psychological slump following both sides winning their pool. This has to be emotional for both sides given the nature of Australia's group and the SA's loss to Japan.

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Post by fa0019 Tue 20 Oct 2015, 9:58 am

Personally I reckon the key to killing NZ's chances is taking care of Aaron Smith. I think he's a great attacking threat but not a purist when it comes to no9 play and if he's behind a struggling pack or marked heavily he can get rattled.

Easier said then done but when Smith gets in difficulty for me his team falters.

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Post by disneychilly Tue 20 Oct 2015, 10:07 am

Yeah BCL I'm thinking that SA were just starting to taper off emotionally after that loss to Japan-immediately after it they were smashing everyone. This may have woken them up big time-like the French semi in 95. If NZ recreate that intensity I think it will be remarkable. There was more than a hint of payback in that annihilation and sometimes the French can give up. There'll be no hint of that on Saturday and I think SA will have the upper hand in the first half which puts pressure on our bench. NZ have to live with the Boks for the first 30-as usual-but the emotional tolls of the previous week may come into play.

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Post by fa0019 Tue 20 Oct 2015, 10:18 am

disneychilly wrote:Yeah BCL I'm thinking that SA were just starting to taper off emotionally after that loss to Japan-immediately after it they were smashing everyone. This may have woken them up big time-like the French semi in 95. If NZ recreate that intensity I think it will be remarkable. There was more than a hint of payback in that annihilation and sometimes the French can give up. There'll be no hint of that on Saturday and I think SA will have the upper hand in the first half which puts pressure on our bench. NZ have to live with the Boks for the first 30-as usual-but the emotional tolls of the previous week may come into play.

There was certainly some blood boiling in that NZ team on sat. Guys like Carter and McCaw especially had real fire in their bellies. Much like the 1995 SF vs. England (many of the players were peeved by Englands conduct post their 93 loss and wanted to set things straight).


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Post by disneychilly Tue 20 Oct 2015, 1:11 pm

fa0019 wrote:Personally I reckon the key to killing NZ's chances is taking care of Aaron Smith. I think he's a great attacking threat but not a purist when it comes to no9 play and if he's behind a struggling pack or marked heavily he can get rattled.

Easier said then done but when Smith gets in difficulty for me his team falters.

Though remember FA Dan Carter was used to getting crap ball from Marshall, Weepu and Kelleher. He looked like he had time then-SA are really going to have to come through and dominate rucks to the extent they're tackling him because even if it's not on a silver platter his passing off the deck may still be quick enough to hurt you.

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Post by George Carlin Tue 20 Oct 2015, 1:13 pm

This may genuinely be one of those games where the team which wins is just the one that wants it more. And I couldn't guess which that would be.
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Post by fa0019 Tue 20 Oct 2015, 1:14 pm

disneychilly wrote:
fa0019 wrote:Personally I reckon the key to killing NZ's chances is taking care of Aaron Smith. I think he's a great attacking threat but not a purist when it comes to no9 play and if he's behind a struggling pack or marked heavily he can get rattled.

Easier said then done but when Smith gets in difficulty for me his team falters.

Though remember FA Dan Carter was used to getting crap ball from Marshall, Weepu and Kelleher. He looked like he had time then-SA are really going to have to come through and dominate rucks to the extent they're tackling him because even if it's not on a silver platter his passing off the deck may still be quick enough to hurt you.

Less crap service more so him being forced onto the backfoot. Whenever I've seen NZ pressurised its come through Smith... and that's not to say that he's a bad player... he's an excellent player.

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Post by TightHEAD Tue 20 Oct 2015, 1:36 pm

Is it me or has the RWC gone a little flat since all our Celtic Cousins have gone home?
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Post by RubyGuby Tue 20 Oct 2015, 1:46 pm

TightHEAD wrote:Is it me or has the RWC gone a little flat since all our Celtic Cousins have gone home?
Yahoo Yahoo Yahoo Yahoo I can still feel your pain from here TH

NZ 29 SA 16

thumbsup

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Post by maestegmafia Tue 20 Oct 2015, 1:48 pm

I've got a feeling the ABs can put more than 30 point on their next two rivals.

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Post by fa0019 Tue 20 Oct 2015, 1:51 pm

TightHEAD wrote:Is it me or has the RWC gone a little flat since all our Celtic Cousins have gone home?

Don't you just hate this "boks and Ab's have great respect for each other" crap. Love in's are rubbish...rats fighting for crumbs off the kings table, that's what makes good pre match rugby debate!

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Post by fa0019 Tue 20 Oct 2015, 1:55 pm

maestegmafia wrote:I've got a feeling the ABs can put more than 30 point on their next two rivals.

In this RWC cycle NZ have beaten SA 6 times by 7, 4, 11, 14, 16 and 10 points in that order. 30 points (diff I assume) would be pushing it IMO. Stranger things have happened but I don't see a repeat of last week. The boks won't lie down like France did.

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Post by TightHEAD Tue 20 Oct 2015, 2:06 pm

fa0019 wrote:
maestegmafia wrote:I've got a feeling the ABs can put more than 30 point on their next two rivals.

In this RWC cycle NZ have beaten SA 6 times by 7, 4, 11, 14, 16 and 10 points in that order. 30 points (diff I assume) would be pushing it IMO. Stranger things have happened but I don't see a repeat of last week. The boks won't lie down like France did.

Has anyone seen the NZ chef he has disappeared? Whistle

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Post by disneychilly Tue 20 Oct 2015, 2:13 pm

30 points could be on offer but the Boks are capable of scoring that too. No doubt.

Yes Tighthead I am imagining an Everly Brothers tune being the Boks' theme song for this week haha...

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Post by blackcanelion Tue 20 Oct 2015, 9:39 pm

I think at the end of the day we have a historical cycle of victory and defeat against the boks. Both sides have developed the game to exploit each other weaknesses. I don't think this weakend will be any different.

My worries are scrums, we could lose Crockett, which means Ben franks will come in. The scrums a traditional base for bok pressure, and the nature of our wingers. I expect a kicking game from the boks this weekend. We haven't selected wingers with high ball strength and a good kicking game. The fear is their kick chase game works wwell and puts us under pressure. The breakdown will be brutal.

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Post by fa0019 Wed 21 Oct 2015, 9:48 am

blackcanelion wrote:I think at the end of the day we have a historical cycle of victory and defeat against the  boks. Both sides have developed the game to exploit each other weaknesses. I don't think this weakend will be any different.

My worries are scrums, we could lose Crockett, which means Ben franks will come in. The scrums a traditional base for bok pressure, and the nature of our wingers. I expect a kicking game from the boks this weekend. We haven't selected wingers with high ball strength and a good kicking game. The fear is their kick chase game works wwell and puts us under pressure. The breakdown will be brutal.

Weather looks like its turning for the worse. Will be a factor, probably suit the boks more than NZ but the kicking of Pollard and Le Roux has to improve.
Have to bring back Morne for this one. Have to.

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Post by LondonTiger Wed 21 Oct 2015, 9:56 am

Several papers over here seem to think Matfield will be starting

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Post by fa0019 Wed 21 Oct 2015, 10:00 am

LondonTiger wrote:Several papers over here seem to think Matfield will be starting

De Jager is struggling. If so Du Toit no way will start... too much of a risk for such a young buck to run the lineout. More of a 4 anyhow.

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Post by fa0019 Wed 21 Oct 2015, 10:29 am

South Africa:

15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Fourie du Preez (captain), 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Schalk Burger, 6 Francois Louw, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Substitutes: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Jannie du Plessis, 19 Victor Matfield, 20 Willem Alberts, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Pat Lambie, 23 Jan Serfontein

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Post by disneychilly Wed 21 Oct 2015, 10:34 am

Sexton was named for Ireland too so I wouldn't take much note of de Jager Bismarck and Matfield until Friday. Same if NZ name Crockett-he's pretty doubtful.

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Post by fa0019 Wed 21 Oct 2015, 10:41 am

Bissie will be fit. Just a cut on his hand.

De Jager should be, if not Victor plays and Du Toit goes to bench. More demoralising if they have to withdraw player late on so they wouldn't have named him unless they felt he was probable rather than possible.

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Post by blackcanelion Wed 21 Oct 2015, 11:56 am

Weather forecast, currently rain overnight Friday, clearing by Saturday afternoon....

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Post by fa0019 Wed 21 Oct 2015, 11:58 am

blackcanelion wrote:Weather forecast, currently rain overnight Friday, clearing by Saturday afternoon....

Bissie vs. McCaw rather than Savea vs. Habana then.

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Post by blackcanelion Wed 21 Oct 2015, 12:01 pm

fa0019 wrote:
blackcanelion wrote:Weather forecast, currently rain overnight Friday, clearing by Saturday afternoon....

Bissie vs. McCaw rather than Savea vs. Habana then.

Wink

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Post by chris_501 Wed 21 Oct 2015, 12:09 pm

I've thought for a while that NZ's front row is there only real weakness (in relation!). 

South Africa didn't impress me a huge amount until that last scrum at the weekend so I cannot see how they can win.

I would go for NZ by 10.

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Post by disneychilly Wed 21 Oct 2015, 1:59 pm

NZ didn't want a tight game with France-they just kept hammering them with both points and physicality and they broke. SA won't break. The opportunities won't be in anywhere near as much abundance but there will be a couple. Hope NZ are accurate enough to convert them.

Agree about the front row.

It's SA. They love nothing more than upsetting All Black applecarts on a roll and they are pretty good at it. But if NZ can live with them in the first 40-50 (by less than a score) it's advantage All Blacks. Who knows though-WC knockout desperation could keep the adrenaline going enough to leave NZ too much to do.

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Post by goneagain Wed 21 Oct 2015, 3:25 pm

disneychilly wrote:It's SA. They love nothing more than upsetting All Black applecarts on a roll and they are pretty good at it.
Not sure that's true these days. SA have struggled to get the better of NZ in recent times 16-7 to the ABs over the last decade. Including only 2 victories since their 3-0 sweep in 2009, and one of those was in the 3N before the last World Cup, which saw both teams put out 'experimental' sides away from home leaving the Ozzies to take the title.

disneychilly wrote:But if NZ can live with them in the first 40-50 (by less than a score) it's advantage All Blacks. Who knows though-WC knockout desperation could keep the adrenaline going enough to leave NZ too much to do.
I don't think it will be a case of NZ trying to live with SA in the first half, the reverse is more likely. Even if NZ are behind by 10+ upto an hour into the game I'd still fancy them to get up.

I still feel the same about SA as I said before the Wales game - South Africa have bounced back well after their inital upset, but like Australia have looked better than perhaps they have been in what turned out to be a pretty weak group.
Decent victory against Scotland (who rested plenty of layers?) and pretty easy wins against disappointing USA and Samoa sides.
- but now would add that they had a very physical battle against a limited and injury depleted Wales and only just scraped home.

I fancy NZ by 15+ in this game.

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Post by Biltong Wed 21 Oct 2015, 3:36 pm

Yeah, keep building that underdog status, we have no pressure on us, nothing to lose.
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