QF1 - Match Thread - England v Australia - 19/10/19 - K/O 08:15 BST

[Guest]

Thought I'd get these made nice and early for a few reasons - but one being that we're already now looking ahead to the QFs with several teams having finished their group stage, so it's all heating up for the proper knockout stuff...barring any more disruption.

England



Team: Daly; Watson, Slade, Tuilagi, May; Farrell (capt), Youngs; M Vunipola, George, Sinckler; Itoje, Lawes; Curry, Underhill, B Vunipola.

Replacements: Cowan-Dickie, Marler, Cole, Kruis, Ludlam, Heinz, Ford, Joseph.


Australia



Team: Beale; Hodge, Petaia, Kerevi, Koroibete; Lealiifano, Genia; Alaalatoa, Latu, Sio; Arnold, Rodda; Naisarani, Hooper (c), Pocock.

Replacements: Uelese, Slipper, Tupou, Coleman, Salakaia-Loto, White, To'omua, O'Connor.



Venue: Oita
Referee: Jerome Garces
AR1: Romain Poite
AR2: Mathieu Raynal
TMO: Ben Skeen

[robbo277]

There are a lot of unanswered questions for England, missing a chance to see the team out against France.

Joe Marler, Billy Vunipola and Jack Nowell were all doubts for the game against France, although another week off should do the 3 of them some good.

Mako Vunipola and Henry Slade were also in need of a bit of match practice.

From the first three pool games and even stretch back to Scotland in February, I think we need Ford in at 10. I've always been a fan of his, and I think we are structured better with Ford at 10 and Farrell at 12. Manu has to start and therefore plays 13.

I think our pack by and large picks itself. Loose-head depends on injuries, but George, Sinckler, Itoje and Kruis should probably all start. I think Lawes is a better rugby player than Kruis, but Kruis is a so good in that unit and holds it together, a bit like a not-quite-as-good Alun-Wyn Jones. Lawes has carved out a good role as a finisher and having a player like him coming off the bench could be an invaluable weapon.

On loosehead, I don't think we can take a risk with Marler and Vunipola. Luckily we have a great option in Genge who can mix it with the best.

Wilson is probably short some minutes and is possibly the biggest loser in the England squad with regards to the washout. If Billy is fit he can't start, and potentially wouldn't even make the bench.

Again, 9 is one where the players could have done without a break, but for a quarter-final I think you have to go with Ben Youngs, with the option of an early sub if it's not going well.

Back row is where we are a little bit spoiled for choice. We have 5 players (and McConnochie) looking for 4 spots. If Nowell isn't fit it becomes an easier decision, if not it becomes much harder.

Potential team for (probably) Australia:
Mako Vunipola, George, Sinckler, Itoje, Kruis, Curry, Underhill, Billy Vunipola, Youngs, Ford, May, Farrell, Tuilagi, Watson, Daly
Cowan-Dickie, Marler, Cole, Lawes, Ludlam, Heinz, Slade, Nowell

Genge, Wilson and Cokanasiga on standby to cover injuries.

[No 7&1/2]

The biggest 1nfor menus if all 3 loose heads are fit. Vunipola is or had been very important to how jones wants to play. That is lessened with sinckler in the team. Equal or possibly better than vunipola at first receiver with probably less of an engine. Vunipola looked understandably rusty in the scrums and gave away 1 pen I think. For me both marler and George are better in the scrum and both on form.

[robbo277]

The biggest 1nfor menus if all 3 loose heads are fit. Vunipola is or had been very important to how jones wants to play. That is lessened with sinckler in the team. Equal or possibly better than vunipola at first receiver with probably less of an engine. Vunipola looked understandably rusty in the scrums and gave away 1 pen I think. For me both marler and George are better in the scrum and both on form.

Was it me or did Marler spend a lot of time against Argentina at first receiver distributing? I've just checked the stats and he's made 2 passes all World Cup, so maybe I overplayed his role in my head. Sinckler on the other hand has made 13. But Marler is capable of playing a pass, and did it on at least one occasion from first receiver.

I think Mako will be physically fit, but match fitness becomes an issue. Marler may be fit to run or may not be. I'd like to see Mako start and if he starts to struggle we can make an earlier change, or if he comes through 60 minutes we can have Marler (or Genge) adding some real energy off the bench in the last 20 minutes. Having Mako at full match sharpness will stand us in good stead if we get further in the tournament.

[TightHEAD]

Watching Aus play Georgia I don't think we have too much to worry about if we do the basics and keep XV players on the field.

[robbo277]

Back on Topic, watching Aus play Georgia I don't think we have too much to worry about if we do the basics and keep XV players on the field.

Not watching the game but it's a much changed line-up.

I imaging Australia with 8 days prep will be strong. I'd say it's one we should be winning and I think Rugby4cast has us with just over a 60% chance of making the semi-final - which is a healthy margin. But we'll need things to go right for us (or at least not wrong for us), injuries and cards could change the equation quite quickly.

[Duty281]

Australia have the potential to blow England away in the opening quarter, especially if the latter are a bit rusty after a prolonged absence.

But if England get through the opening twenty relatively unscathed, and deal with Australia’s counter attacking threat competently, then it should be a comfortable day’s work. It’s six wins out of six since the 2015 debacle, most of them by fairly strong margins, for a reason.

[EnglishReign]

I may be misremembering but Aus seem to start slowly in every game and then turn it on 2nd half like v Wales, Fiji and now Georgia. I think it’ll come down to building a decent HT lead and weathering the 2nd half onslaught.

[No 7&1/2]

It's been all about control and territory for england so far with Jones' tactics spot on. I suspect if Australia are to get something from this game it'll involve some pretty spectacular tries.

[robbo277]

I may be misremembering but Aus seem to start slowly in every game and then turn it on 2nd half like v Wales, Fiji and now Georgia. I think it’ll come down to building a decent HT lead and weathering the 2nd half onslaught.

Which is why having Marler, Cole and Lawes on the bench (as opposed to starting) may be a good move. Aim to rack up that lead and then bring these hard defenders on to tackle everything. Play territory with our twin 10s and then look to defend with a fast line speed as high up the pitch as possible.

[LondonTiger]

I may be misremembering but Aus seem to start slowly in every game and then turn it on 2nd half like v Wales, Fiji and now Georgia. I think it’ll come down to building a decent HT lead and weathering the 2nd half onslaught.

Arguably Wales sat back a little, certainly AWJ suggested that. Fiji ran out of steam, and Georgi have continued to push Australia hard though are struggling.

Since the last World Cup:

Australia (13) 28 - 39 (19) England
Australia (7) 7 - 23 (10) England
Australia (18) 40 - 44 (17) England
England (13) 37 - 21 (16) Australia
England (6) 30 - 6 (0) Australia
England (13) 37 - 18 (13) Australia

As can be seen, England have outscored Australia in the second half in each of these games.

[Soul Requiem]

I may be misremembering but Aus seem to start slowly in every game and then turn it on 2nd half like v Wales, Fiji and now Georgia. I think it’ll come down to building a decent HT lead and weathering the 2nd half onslaught.

In games against England it tends to be the other way round, they start fast and build a lead then wilt in the second half as the physicality starts to take its toll.

[LondonTiger]

I may be misremembering but Aus seem to start slowly in every game and then turn it on 2nd half like v Wales, Fiji and now Georgia. I think it’ll come down to building a decent HT lead and weathering the 2nd half onslaught.

In games against England it tends to be the other way round, they start fast and build a lead then wilt in the second half as the physicality starts to take its toll.

In the last 6 matches England were ahead in 3 at HT and level in another. England scored first in 4 of the matches I believe. But as outlined above we have outscored them in teh second half in every game.

[Soul Requiem]

I may be misremembering but Aus seem to start slowly in every game and then turn it on 2nd half like v Wales, Fiji and now Georgia. I think it’ll come down to building a decent HT lead and weathering the 2nd half onslaught.

In games against England it tends to be the other way round, they start fast and build a lead then wilt in the second half as the physicality starts to take its toll.

In the last 6 matches England were ahead in 3 at HT and level in another. England scored first in 4 of the matches I believe. But as outlined above we have outscored them in teh second half in every game.

There have been games where we've been under the cosh for the majority of the first half but hung on in there. The game in Melbourne 2016 comes to mind as does the Twickenham game the same year.

[Guest]

Australia have the potential to blow England away in the opening quarter, especially if the latter are a bit rusty after a prolonged absence.

Other way round in my opinion. Egland are top heavy, Australia will be fitter and keep going for longer.

[Guest]

Either way, this has the potential to be a real clash of styles.

Australia aren't the soft tight 5 they've been for much of the last decade - 4 years ago showed that they get it right for WCs, and I think their front rowers are some of the best carrying props and hookers in the tournament. A bit scrappy at lineout time but they've got two beanpoles at lock so not safe on either throw for England. Scrum - expect England to get the edge on sheer bulk, but second half, if they're tired, can see it being 50:50 really.

Big test in the back rows. Hooper and Pocock are world class, and Pocock's slowly grown in the tournament - not what he was by the looks of things, but if England play it loose, he will win penalties and that can kill momentum. Hooper's been one of the best players in the world for years and has looked it again this RWC.

Discipline's the big one - both teams are pretty loose. Australia make more silly mistakes by the looks of things, lots of compounded errors, and ofc love a high shot tackle. But England make sloppy over competitive errors as well. Who knows where this one's going.

Fairly confident it's not going to be Wales in this game.

[lostinwales]

Hooper - one of the best centers in the game..

On the bright side Folau isn't playing.

We have more than handy carrying and handling props and hookers ourselves, and will have an edge in the 2nd row regardless of who is playing.

The backrow contest will be very interesting as we are also playing 2 7's (although Curry seems to be getting bigger all the time) Both newbies but smart and powerful. No Haskell to keep Pocock out of the game though.

Biggest margin between the two teams is arguably in coaching. Jones is as shrewd as they come, and he obviously understands Australia all too well. Cheika is at the end of the road and can seem to be more a hindrance than a help.

[Guest]

You probably haven't watched Hooper since 2012, have you...?

[Soul Requiem]

Australia have the potential to blow England away in the opening quarter, especially if the latter are a bit rusty after a prolonged absence.

Other way round in my opinion. Egland are top heavy, Australia will be fitter and keep going for longer.

Yet England have over the past four years routinely blown Australia away in the final quarter.

[Rugby Fan]

Australia have the potential to blow England away in the opening quarter

Australia are the only team to blow England away in the first quarter under Jones. In the first Test of the 2016 tour, Australia scored two tries in the first 15 minutes, and had a third disallowed. If the third try had stood, or if Foley hadn't missed the conversions, that match could have gone differently. As it is, Farrell slotted two penalties to put us on the board, and then Joseph capitalized on a handling blunder to put England in the lead on the 31st minute.

I was delighted we weathered that storm, as we had been very poor at overcoming deficits under Johnson and Lancaster. As it turns out, no-one else has put such fast scores on us in the early stages of a match since then. Instead, we've done the opposite, and gone on to give up big early leads.

In 2016, I think we still had a bloody-mindedness born out of the earlier World Cup failure. Players like Farrell and Brown were angry, while Robshaw, Hartley and Haskell all had points to prove. If someone does get a fast start against us now, I have no idea how we would respond.

Incidentally, if we do play Australia, and Dan Cole is in the line-up, then Engand will be fielding the Northern hemisphere player who has beaten Australia more times than any other. He has won 10 tests against Australia: seven starts with England and three off the bench with the Lions. If we play Ben Youngs, then he has racked up 9 wins. The only time Youngs started a Test against Australia and lost was..........the 2015 World Cup pool match.

[Guest]

Australia have the potential to blow England away in the opening quarter, especially if the latter are a bit rusty after a prolonged absence.

Other way round in my opinion. Egland are top heavy, Australia will be fitter and keep going for longer.

Yet England have over the past four years routinely blown Australia away in the final quarter.

Yet the opposite was true 4 years ago.

Every other game Engand play, they start big and then struggle. Scotland in this year's 6Ns, Wales as well, Ireland even clawed their way back in to the game and Slade's try - which would have been chalked off under the law being applied in this WC - was the clincher. NZ in the autumn. It's a pretty obvious trend.

It's an interesting statistic, but pretty lazy/dishonest to expect the same to happen again in this game.

Let's wait and see, but England using their rest period to start quickly and give Oz an unassailable target to peg back seems the best hope for England.

[No 7&1/2]

Or. We just grind them with the pack. Pin them back. Unleash our backs. I agree to a point that if we're not ahead comfortably come 60 I'd be disappointed but if also not be concerned if it were 7 points either way.

[Soul Requiem]

The opposite was true four years ago but it's no longer four years ago, it's the here and now.

Aside from the Wales game who are a notoriously irritating team to get rid of I don't think the others fit the point you're trying to make at all, you've come up with an idea and are now trying to fit to it rather than using evidence to come to an opinion. The Scotland game was an aberration and a failure in leadership rather than a team wilting physically, Ireland were never in that game and it was quite clearly England in the ascendancy in the final quarter as they were against New Zealand without getting the points to show for it.

It's dishonest to expect England to come on strong in the final quarter against Australia despite them doing that very thing in five of the last six games they've played?

[Mr Bounce]

I think the chances of a YC in this game are quite high. Despite his brilliance, isn't Hooper the most yellow-carded player in history??

[No 7&1/2]

Obviously weighted to a period in time where the sanitation of the game is taking place and yellow cards are much more prevalent. This is bound to come back and haunt me of course but I've never rated Hooper as more than a good player. Outshone his whole career by Pocock and honestly wouldn't have him in the England team even when we were with robshaw and Haskell let alone underhill and curry.

[Guest]

Yes, Soul. I've come up with an idea and the provided evidence for why I think that. Jeez. This place is awful sometimes. Too much petty nationalism.

[RiscaGame]

Pooper is quite easy to negate. Wales did it very well. England’s backrow is something else, so should negate it pretty easily. I honestly expect England to win pretty comfortably, if it is Australia they play.

I am sure Uncle Eddie will have ramped up training the past couple of days, to get some sort of extra fitness for Mako etc. so I expect they haven’t missed out on test match intensity, because there’ll be healthy competition throughout the squad.

[Pie]

Aus are due a big game. They know its knockout rugby now, different mindset and I think mentally they are better equipped for these high pressure games. The likes of Genia and Pocock are going to come into their own.

[Guest]

Disagree it's easy. That's being harsh on Wales who are a better breakdown team that England - as see in both MS games in 2019, but more generally going back a decade.

Big test for England. If they pick Billy you're making it basically a 2 on 2. Wales had Navidi at 8 and he was excellent at disrupting them.

Koroibete showing once again what a threat he is ball in hand. Cannot be allowed space and a head of steam. He's the player Joe Cokanasiga wishes he will be when he grows up.

[No 7&1/2]

Doubt that's true with curry underhill and itoje in the team tbh.
It will be more about protecting the ball than disrupting them though.

[Armchairexpert]

Think we should start Marler if he is fit, Australia dominated the famously strong Georgian scrum today and Marler is our beat scrummager. Bring Mako on at 50 mins.

Sad not to have seen much of Wilson. I am a bit worried that Billy is well below par at the moment and want Wilson in the mix as an alternative. Maybe he will be but can see Eddy going for the same back row as against Argentina, good, but could be better. Have always thought Joe C would be the super sub in the back three to change a game, not sure how that works now with May, Nowell and Watson all looking so good. Would not want on too early, Australia would exploit his poor positioning

[Pie]

I dont think Joe C will have much to offer vs Aussie backs. I'd pick Nowell, Daly and May. Ideally Slade and Manu but I also think Joseph has an X factor. But this game will be won in the set piece and kicking. I think its 50/50 on set piece and Eng have edge on kicking game on papa but again I think this is knockout rugby and maybe Aus have slightly larger balls.

[Armchairexpert]

Very much doubt Slade will start, especially as he has had so little game time. Really wanted to see him play at 12 with JJ at 13 against France. One of those two will be on the bench, Slade offers greater flexibility but is more of a gamble form wise.

[lostinwales]

You probably haven't watched Hooper since 2012, have you...?

Yeah you are right. There are much better centers

[No 7&1/2]

Very unlikely not to be watson may daly and nowell on the bench. Joseph wont make with slade on the bench. Englands set piece so far and in the last 5 years is better than aus.

[Guest]

Doubt that's true with curry underhill and itoje in the team tbh.
It will be more about protecting the ball than disrupting them though.

What, clearing them off the ball? Hard to say. All 3 are good, but Itoje's a penalty machine and has a lot of other responsibilities. Not sure England have shown the breakdown accuracy Wales have, that's all, but it should be a good game within the game.

Australia to me look like a team with immense talent, but poor cohesion - mentally as much as anything. They're a bit French that way, if you give them a stimulus or a reason to all combine and start playing for a single purpose, as in the second half v Wales, they've shown they have immense basic skills.

I thought this would be close pre-cancellation with England as favourites, but that can only help things. Australia coasted the Georgia game but it was still a physical battle and they failed to kill the game until 4 minutes to go. There's also the question that you really have no idea who Australia will start at 9-10-12. Hard to prepare for. Should be a cracker.

[No 7&1/2]

Well england will have more of the ball so yes the pack will be focused on the quick clear out. Wont be a defensive effort.

[Guest]

No, that's what I meant. Stopping Pocock and Hooper poaching English ball. You need to be quick and accurate throughout v those 2.

[Soul Requiem]

I dont think Joe C will have much to offer vs Aussie backs. I'd pick Nowell, Daly and May. Ideally Slade and Manu but I also think Joseph has an X factor. But this game will be won in the set piece and kicking. I think its 50/50 on set piece and Eng have edge on kicking game on papa but again I think this is knockout rugby and maybe Aus have slightly larger balls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Fm6nkgFAjM

I suppose that Joe C didn't just bump off Haylett-Petty like he's not there, not a lot to offer at all.

[No 7&1/2]

Yeah. Should be good. For the best english pack is lining up since 03. Showing a lot more control than we have for...well...as long as I can remember. Robshaw and Haskell showed what you need to do to get the upper hand and personally underhill and curry excite me. A step up. Pocock has been quiet and hes still the guy who can single handedly upset you. Curry though for me is one of the most gifted young players I've seen in a good while. Not seen him take a backward step yet. Of course as I've said its sport and it could go pear shaped. Doesnt feel like it will though.

[Soul Requiem]

No, that's what I meant. Stopping Pocock and Hooper poaching English ball. You need to be quick and accurate throughout v those 2.

The best player to negate them is probably Mark Wilson but he offers less all around than either Curry or Underhill, i'd definitely have him on the bench.

[Guest]

Yeah. Should be good. For the best english pack is lining up since 03. Showing a lot more control than we have for...well...as long as I can remember. Robshaw and Haskell showed what you need to do to get the upper hand and personally underhill and curry excite me. A step up. Pocock has been quiet and hes still the guy who can single handedly upset you. Curry though for me is one of the most gifted young players I've seen in a good while. Not seen him take a backward step yet. Of course as I've said its sport and it could go pear shaped. Doesnt feel like it will though.

I think that's why it would have been interesting to see the France game. See what the English pack could do under a bit of pressure.

[hugehandoff]

let us all hope it is the brilliance on display rather than yellow or red cards that dominate post match discussions!

[Taylorman]

Yes let’s...likelihood of that being?

[majesticimperialman]

How many points do Wales need to win by, to claim top spot and make Australia runner's up?

[Cyril]

Any win or two BPs in a loss would do.

[Guest]

I believe 2 maj. So 4 tries and a LBP, or a draw - if the game is called off, in spite of Australia's 2 tries in the last 4 minutes v Georgia, we'd top the group.

[majesticimperialman]

I believe 2 maj. So 4 tries and a LBP, or a draw - if the game is called off, in spite of Australia's 2 tries in the last 4 minutes v Georgia, we'd top the group.

Oh, ok no pressure then.

[robbo277]

Agree with 2. Level on points, Wales will have a superior head to head record.

I think Wales will get at least 4. I don't think that's controversial in the slightest! I think they should get 5 but to be honest I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't and don't think the team would be bothered to be honest. They didn't pick up the bonus point against Italy but won the Grand Slam, so noone will be too fussed if they didn't pick it up here.

Wales obviously had that bruising encounter with Fiji 4 days ago and have some injuries in the backs. They should bully in the pack though and that should be enough to keep them comfortable throughout.

I guess one of the key things will be "what Uruguay turns up". Russia and Samoa couldn't get on the plane quick enough, while Georgia fought hard in their last game. Do Uruguay have the energy and desire for a fight? If so it could be a decent game. Otherwise we may see another Ireland vs Samoa.

[Guest]

Think Wales will be comfortable enough and get the try bonus in an hour, which confirms Australia as England's opponent in this game.

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