The 2023 Cricket World Cup

The ICC apparently changed the Champions Trophy qualification rules in March 2021.

It's just they never told anyone about it, never made a media release, and hence most teams were unaware of the alteration until yesterday.

I'll revise my question from yesterday to: Who on earth makes a change to the qualification format of a supposedly major competition and doesn't bother to tell anyone?

Duty281 wrote:The ICC apparently changed the Champions Trophy qualification rules in March 2021.

It's just they never told anyone about it, never made a media release, and hence most teams were unaware of the alteration until yesterday.

I'll revise my question from yesterday to: Who on earth makes a change to the qualification format of a supposedly major competition and doesn't bother to tell anyone?

The most embarrassing thing from an England/ECB perspective is that they reportedly had representatives in the room helping make that decision. Who then forgot to mention it...

Duty281 wrote:

alfie wrote:

Duty281 wrote:Afghanistan v Sri Lanka tomorrow. The winner will move to two points off the semi-final places. If Afghanistan could win this they've got a respectable chance of reaching the semis...

Given the respective draws , Sri Lanka have a better chance than Afghanistan (if they win this one). But realistically they are both going to have to make do with qualification for the Champions Trophy at best.

I'd say Afghanistan have the easier remaining fixtures, but it is marginal.

Indeed not a huge difference. Depends whether you actually think Netherlands is an easier opponent than Bangladesh ! Both sides probably wishing they had England again

Anyway Afghanistan with what appears to be an advantage in this match...good fielding for that run out has left Sri Lanka in a dodgy spot - need Old Man Matthews to make something of these late overs...

240 all out. Better than England managed ; may be enough , may not. Bit on this one as the winner just about set for Champions Trophy qualification.

Sri Lanka vs Afghanistan, both conquerors of the England Cricket side, fighting it out.
Sri Lanka bowled out for 241 (49.3), Afghanistan needing 242 runs to win.

It's not the BIG score version of pitch for sure....its slow, ball is stopping, spinning a bit
240 appears a bit light......more like 260-270 pitch

but 229 appeared a bit light yesterday too & ended up with a T result on PJ scale

Wait till second team bats to judge the pitch applies here too

KP_fan wrote:It's not the  BIG score version of pitch for sure....its slow, ball is stopping, spinning a bit
240 appears a bit light......more like 260-270 pitch

but 229 appeared a bit light yesterday too & ended up with a T result on PJ scale

Wait till second team bats to judge the pitch applies here too

Yeah... just.

Think 241 is a decent score on this pitch. Don't think it will be a cakewalk for the Afghans.

Afghanistan made that chase look supremely easy.

Puts them up to 5th, two points off Australia and NZ. If Afghanistan can defeat the Dutch in the next game then they are absolutely in the semi-final race, and might provide some late excitement.

Pakistan and Bangladesh to kick off the 7th round tomorrow. Two big disappointments so far. Pakistan's slender hopes rely on winning their final three games, starting with this one.

Things like stress, fear don't even touch Afg & that I think is the reason for their super show so far.

They are happy to be playing....grateful to be here & playing a world cup & understand that to be a blessing in context with the baseline of lives in their country.
And that's what produces unbridled spirit of joy and give it all with no fear.

They will be favorites over NED.....makes it 4 and need some support from BCCI in the form of a 6/10 pitch vs SA or Aus to make history

So although the top four is probably just about settled , there are still games to be played to make that official. And Afghanistan is remarkably in the position of being the only other team with a qualification chance technically in its own hands : win all three and they will be at least equal on points with Australia - which no other side can do. Of course , that means defeating both the Aussies and SA , plus they'd need to be making up a huge gap in NRR ; so still pretty unlikely. Other teams need miracles.

At the other end of the table : two sides will not make the Champions Trophy so still have incentives to ensure no "dead" matches. Sri Lanka realistically just need to beat Bangladesh to be safe ; but since Pakistan are auto qualifiers wherever they finish the other three teams are in a real dogfight to get through. Normally you'd fancy England to beat the Dutch but on this form who knows ? Even if they did there is NRR to improve - and Netherlands will doubtless be looking to upset Afghanistan ... So England might need to beat Pakistan as well - something Bangladesh would also be hoping to do. So a lot of permutations to be decided.

One good thing , perhaps , from this rather "late reveal" of that CT qualification ? Has provided extra interest for teams that won't challenge the top four.

Amusing notion : if Australia and NZ lost all three games , and the Dutch won all their three : we could have Netherlands and Afghanistan replacing both as semi finalists

And no , I wouldn't be risking a fiver on that...

Just realised Bangladesh will be the first team eliminated today, officially eliminated, if they lose to Pakistan.

And they're well on the way to doing so - 145/6 after 33 overs.

A win here keeps Pakistan alive and kicking as well. Puts them two points behind NZ, and they'll stay two points behind if SA can beat NZ tomorrow. Then, in the 8th game, it's Pakistan v NZ and would be a chance for Pakistan to tie it on points.

Still some faint life in the semi-final race...England are still alive too...

Duty281 wrote:Just realised Bangladesh will be the first team eliminated today, officially eliminated, if they lose to Pakistan.

And they're well on the way to doing so - 145/6 after 33 overs.

A win here keeps Pakistan alive and kicking as well. Puts them two points behind NZ, and they'll stay two points behind if SA can beat NZ tomorrow. Then, in the 8th game, it's Pakistan v NZ and would be a chance for Pakistan to tie it on points.

Still some faint life in the semi-final race...England are still alive too...

--Afg has 3 wins and 3 games in hand...so they are in with a chance...esp that 1 of their 3 game is vs Ned
--NZ could still lose their 3 games vs Pak, SL and SA and be knocked out...even with 2 defeats they culd be tied on points
-Aus could still lose their 3 games vs Eng, Afg and Ned and be knocked out, though you would believe they will atleast beat Ned....even with two defeats they could be tied on points
-Pak can win their last 3 games and be with 5 wins
-5 wins alone is not enuf for qualifications...with it the NRR has to be very high.
-Eng can beat Pak, Ned and Aus will only end up with 4....I don't see 4 win side qualifying

Yeah, I was tongue-in-cheek about England making it.

Afghanistan and Pakistan the only ones left, realistically, who can upset the apple cart, and they're reliant on other results going their way. Australia will probably be fine with the fixture list they've got (note: their last game is v Bangladesh, they've already played the Dutch), but it's quite possible that NZ lose two of their three (v SA and Pak) and Pak win their final three, creating a tie on 10 points. Then if Afghanistan beat the Dutch and cause an upset v either Aus or SA it becomes a three-way tie.

Pakistan making light work of Bangladesh here and their NRR will be well boosted as a result. Afghanistan the only team to lose to Bangladesh so far. That'll be a source of big regret and might be the reason they don't make the semis.

Aus vs SA is looking like one semis
and
India vs NZ 60% probability, Ind-Pak 35% probability and Ind-Afg 5% probability for the second semis

Pakistan have chased down the 205 inside 33 overs. Easy day.

Bangladesh's horror tournament is nearly over, officially eliminated today, and just some games v SL and Aus left so salvage some pride. Their worst World Cup since 2003, which was when they failed to win a single match and lost to Canada. Fair to say Bangladeshi cricket is in trouble? Doing zero in the test arena, and consistently failing to make an impact in limited-overs competitions (a CT semi-final in 2017 remains their best effort in global competition).

Pakistan stay alive. Like the rest of us neutrals, they're hoping for SA to down NZ tomorrow, which would set up a big game between Pak and NZ in the 8th round.

Semi-finalists - India, South Africa
Nearly there - Australia
Almost there, but still some work to do - New Zealand
Scrapping for dear life - Pakistan, Afghanistan
Is there time for one last stand? - England
Last Rites - Sri Lanka, Netherlands
Brown bread - Bangladesh

NZ won the toss and choose to bowl

Southee in for Ferguson and rabada in for shamsi

Sa 12-0 after 4 overs

SA v NZ
NZ put SA in, knowing batting first is SA's stronger suit...because there is a green grass cover that should apparently help seamers  & avoid the dew with mythical affects in the evening
That's pretty much the logic Eng had putting SA in

Bavuma is playing beautifully taking Matt Henry apart...wonder if we will see santner on in the powerplay make him create his own power

KP_fan wrote:SA v NZ
NZ put SA in, knowing batting first is SA's stronger suit...because there is a green grass cover that should apparently help seamers  & avoid the dew with mythical affects in the evening
That's pretty much the logic Eng had putting SA in

Does seem similar... However , NZ probably have better bowling at their disposal and a batting lineup that isn't mentally scrambled so might not be such a silly idea - we will see.

This dew factor hasn't played a big part in this WC , has it ? Unless I've missed something...

Reckon this could be a close contest.

Don't think I'd even need to look at the pitch at this world cup before deciding to make SA chase

It's time for spin...even if it's ravindra...nothing in the deck for the seamers...change the pace before it's too late

alfie wrote:

KP_fan wrote:SA v NZ
NZ put SA in, knowing batting first is SA's stronger suit...because there is a green grass cover that should apparently help seamers  & avoid the dew with mythical affects in the evening
That's pretty much the logic Eng had putting SA in

Does seem similar...  However  , NZ probably have better bowling at their disposal and a batting lineup that isn't mentally scrambled so might not be such a silly idea - we will see.

This dew factor hasn't played a big part in this WC , has it ?  Unless I've missed something...

Reckon this could be a close contest.

There is a lot of hearsay, propaganda and ignorance making dew sound like a wild card to your convenience and fears.
what I have seen, the impact of dew should be interpreted with the humidity on that day.
For eg. humidity today in Pune is 41% and that's low & dew will be no much...and hence not any significant gripping problem for spinners.
For eg humidity today in Chennai in 86% and there will a lot of dew and a lot of gripping problem for the spinner.

In all cases dew on the pitch spices it up a bit or more than bit for the seamers

Matt Henry does his hamstring
and Glen Maxwell got hit & concussed during a golf game & will miss the Eng game
what a break for Eng

Have a feeling NZ have lost some of that intensity they had prior to the Aus match.

That match would taken a lot out of both teams physically (and mentally) but more so for the Kiwis. SA is taking good advantage of the slight drop off in performance of NZ today and setting it up again for a bullying final 10 overs... if they can keep wickets in hand.

Agree with KP_fan above, NZ should have tried to set the standard by batting first and making some hay whilst at the same time hopefully restoring some confidence in their players. Anyway, time will tell if they can prove that was a sensible decision. A long way to go in this match yet.

Love the way Ricky casually mentioned the "34 consecutive wins". I thought it was only "28" too. That truly was a phenomenal achievement.

Both players struggling for fluency and tempo runs not flowing and plenty of wickets in the shed....pressure building

Tough day for NZ. Losing Henry in addition to their other injuries, plus de Kock continuing his outrageous form. This is de Kock's fourth century, closing in on Rohit's record five in a single World Cup, and he's over 100 runs higher than the second-highest run scorer at this World Cup.

NZ on a big slide. This would be three defeats in a row, and all to semi-finalist teams which doesn't augur well for the KO stages if they get there. Similar thing happened to NZ in 2019 - they started that WC with five wins and a NR, before losing the final three games and only making the KO stages on NRR. Here, they won the first four games, but are now facing three straight losses, leaving their previously strong position dependent on a good result v Pak in the next game.

Unless they chase this down, of course! But looks as though SA are set for 340+.

I just never will understand the persistence of opening Temba Bavuma, if he is to be in the side then he should come in at 3 and 4 as he rarely scores big and his strike rate is nearly always under 100. In a team full of quality ODI batsmen, i find it difficult to select him.

Duty281 wrote:

NZ on a big slide. This would be three defeats in a row, and all to semi-finalist teams which doesn't augur well for the KO stages if they get there. Similar thing happened to NZ in 2019 -.

Are they on a slide ? Or reality of their strength / weakness of standing caught up with them
They won first 4 games which were against the 4 weakest sides in competition & they started losing as they ran into stronger sides

Certainly NZ do seem to have come "off" a bit - while Australia have bloomed after a poor start. Granted opposition strengths might have had something to do with that ; but I wouldn't read too much into it : that Aus/NZ game came down to the last ball after all.

Assuming they don't lose this one and the last two to Pakistan and Sri Lanka , NZ will still be in the semis and once it gets to last four anything can happen. Especially as SA always fall in the semis and India will be due to lose one by then

Actually do think SA have made a few too many for NZ here, It does look a proper road ; but as PJ says , that ;last game must have taken a bit out of the Kiwis. I'll be rather surprised if they get near it.

SA looked so quiet in the last 10 overs.
so quiet..they did only 120 runs in last 10

Not only does NZ look certain to lose but it could be by a BIG margin that will dent their NRR
Gap between Pak & NZ will close

SA has the best pace attack
India the best seam attack
and Afg the best spin attack

Why are England playing in black today?

Maharaj bowls santner! 100-6

Not playing this sensibly, are NZ. They should have given up on the win long ago and just focused on minimising the NRR damage.

This is a savage blow to their SF hopes, but great for the competition. Means that Afghanistan v Netherlands on Friday, and NZ v Pakistan and England v Australia (both on Saturday), are all big games.

Could end up with a scenario where NZ, Pak, Aus and Afg are all tied on 8 points at the end of Saturday, with Australia/Afghanistan having played 7 games and NZ/Pak having played 8 games. Which, in turn, would tee up Australia v Afghanistan next Tuesday as a crucial game.

Finally getting some drama into proceedings.

NZ dropped a whopping 0.75 NRR to be at 0.48 only now
Pak are near zero practically
2 comfortable wins for Pak and 1 defeat and a 1 narrow win for NZ will bring them very close

Pak are practically the only team with wherewithal to topple NZ from-4

So for all the talk of "this is boring , finalists decided too early" , the competition still has legs...

I still expect the top four to stay that way ; but with NZ suffering severe blows to NRR and yet more injury worries , their position isn't near as secure as it looked a week or two back. Their game with Pakistan now more significant.

Pakistan , really have only beaten three of the bottom four teams ; so we probably shouldn't be getting too excited about them. And hard to see Afghanistan getting more than 8 points as I don't think Australia or SA are going to lie down . But until the games are played , anything is possible.

Looking more like a three horse race ?

...and I see it isn't just NZ suffering from injuries , etc :

Australia will be without Maxwell (injured falling off a golf cart - always said that is a dangerous sport ) for the England game. And now they have also lost Marsh , who is off home for unspecified personal reasons.

Almost like they are trying to give England a chance ...

This is a big game today. Although I do not see India losing, I think Sri Lanka has a team that could push them today.

357 from India, despite no one making a ton. Should be more than enough for them to get 7 wins from 7 and become the first confirmed semi-finalists.

Curious bowling figures from Madushanka - he took five of the eight wickets, but was also the most expensive bowler with 80 runs coming from his ten.

Those Australian absentees are very timely for England. Remember: England beat Aus, Ned and Pak; Pak beat NZ and lose to Eng; NZ lose to Pak and SL; Afghanistan win one of their final three games = four way tie on NRR for the final semi-final spot. Throw in Sri Lanka beating Bangladesh as well as NZ and it's a five-way tie! Wouldn't that be fun?

Good start for Sri Lanka, 3/4 one ball into the fourth over. Bumrah top scorer so far with two wides.

Some of the teams that England didn't just lose to, were actually thrashed by. Sri Lanka are appalling!

shami had one hattrick in 2019 and has been on a hattrick every game this world cup

I wrote before also & I repeat

Best Pace attack this world-cup in SA
Best Seam attack this world-cup in Ind
Best Spin attack this world-cup in Afg

That Ind has the second best spin attack & that their seamers all hit 140+ makes the Indian attack super potent.

22-7
Indian seam attack under lights turns it into a charade

Yep, Sri Lanka are garbage, and it does make England's defeat look all the worse.

Had a punt at 16/1 before the WC that Sri Lanka would register the lowest score of the WC, so I'm hoping India keep the pressure on and shoot them out for 50.

Duty281 wrote:Yep, Sri Lanka are garbage, and it does make England's defeat look all the worse.

Had a punt at 16/1 before the WC that Sri Lanka would register the lowest score of the WC, so I'm hoping India keep the pressure on and shoot them out for 50.

The lowest score this world-cup is 100...... SL has a HUGE mountain to climb to surmount it

I want the lowest ODI score ever. If we're having a complete garbage mismatch, at least break some records

55 all out. Very similar to Sri Lanka's 50ao v India in the Asia Cup final a couple of months back.

Not quite the lowest ODI score ever (Zimbabwe and USA hold that jointly with 35), but it is the lowest ever World Cup score by a test-playing nation, surpassing (or failing to surpass) Bangladesh's 58 v the West Indies in 2011. A 302 run win is the second biggest margin of victory in a WC by runs.

Puts India up to first on 14 points, SA narrowly behind with 12. The 8th game sees those two teams play each other, and India will confirm 1st and will almost certainly complete a 100% winning record if they defeat SA. If SA win they may get first, it depends on NRR, which they do have a narrow advantage in, currently.

Some interesting games over the next few days.

Afghanistan v the Dutch tomorrow, an Afghan win keeps them in the semi-final hunt. Then on Saturday, Pakistan v NZ and Eng v Aus. And India/Sa on Sunday.

The scheduling of the World Cup has been quite sensible so far, but on Saturday Pak/NZ is the early game (which kicks off the eighth round), while England/Aus is the later game (which concludes the seventh round).

Clearly, India are firm favourites to win the whole thing. But you can't help thinking that they are due for a below-par performance. Surely it's better it comes before the knock-out phase, rather than in the semi or final?

India arguably had a below par performance against England, just that England especially with the bat are miles below par, so it was still an easy win. It's South Africa that will look good then somehow mess up in the semi final