The 2023 Cricket World Cup

First topic message reminder :

The ICC apparently changed the Champions Trophy qualification rules in March 2021.

It's just they never told anyone about it, never made a media release, and hence most teams were unaware of the alteration until yesterday.

I'll revise my question from yesterday to: Who on earth makes a change to the qualification format of a supposedly major competition and doesn't bother to tell anyone?

One could argue that Australia have shown they can win when the match is very close. India has not really been tested so far in this tournament.

No name Bertie wrote:One could argue that Australia have shown they can win when the match is very close.  India has not really been tested so far in this tournament.

That's the key....Aus after 2 bad games have been battle hardened...won 8 in a row.
Defending tight games ( NZ, Eng, Pak) and chasing down tight games ( Afg, SA)
And their star cast is different in each games.....even an otherwise ordinary Stoinis did a double wicket strike to trigger Pak collapse.....dry with the bat so far Inglis & Starc did 45 runs with the bat today.....Zampa scored 30 with the bat from No 10 almost the winning margin vs Eng....Manus & Smith have scratched dirty but useful winning runs, Cummins has closed games with the bat twice...Head has turned the game with ball....and to all of that add the blockbuster innings of Marsh, Warner Head at the top......and super blockbuster from Maxwell
Every one in the 11 has contributed towards a win ...and some how one or few of them rise to the whatever is the level of challenge in front of them & muster just enough resilience & resources to overcome that challenge.

On the other hand India has won most games by a mile...and as Duty pointed their closest was 191-5 vs NZ that NZ could not take advantage & closeout.......the 229 a.o was Ind's worst ever where you could say batting collapsed BUT it still ended in a 100 run thrashing of Eng.
The semis was also as close as someone came chasing India down....and if the target was 350...NZ might have run them over.
Indian's are not battle hardened......they have not been put in a tight situation of 6 down and still needing 40 runs .....if Ind was in Aus's situation today on this pitch.....their 8 thru 11 would have crumbled. A very soft underbelly India has if you go past top-5 +Jadeja

India has not been put in a situation of defending 250-300 total...remember even if they had 340 NZ would have chased it down
If Aus can get India to either of the underlined they are battles hardened & any different 2 or 3 from the 11 are capable of putting their hand up in different in varying situations to take them over the line.

For India if 6 batters fail, you can't count on the other 5 to give you even 100
For India there is no Makram, Head, Root , Stoinis, Nabi, Matthews type batter who can bowl 6 overs if one of the 5 was to roll over his ankle like Pandya did.

https://wickets.substack.com/p/how-the-hell-do-you-beat-india

Here is Jarred Kimber's sarcasm and a lot of well researched stats loaded...."How the Hell do you beat India"
His conclusion using my language...get to India's soft underbelly i.e SKY+ 4 bowlers

And Aus has no soft underbelly ( not Kimber's conclusion but my point)

Aus definitely have weaknesses, just sometimes it's easier to see your own team's than the opposition.

Without even thinking much, I'd say having to make up 10 overs from part timers is a weakness. Mitchell Marsh is really not a great number three. Smith, Labuschagne and Inglis are not likely to score that quickly. They're a good side but not some all conquering juggernaut as being made out, this isn't 2003

KPF is having to do an entire forums worth of doomposting in advance.

Australia obviously aren't favourites compared to the machine India have been. They're a side that's been pretty reliant on standout individual performances rather than much consistent form and as VTR says have to smuggle quite a lot of part time spin, often for a seam attack that's somewhat neutered by conditions overall.

Which isn't to say they can't get those individual performances again and beat India. But if they played 10 times you'd back India to win 7/8 I think.

Tons of weaknesses for Australia:

- Very reliant on the top 3 coming off on flatter decks as Smith and Marnus can get bogged down
- As Inglis has flattered to deceive at the top level they've got a keeper at 7 who doesn't really extend the batting
- Starc has been very up and down with the white ball for a while and can lose his length when attacked
- They are very reliant on Zampa in the middle, he got whacked today
- Their part time spinners should have a harder time bowling to India's batters

India are by a distance the better side. Better top 3. Better middle order - closer without Pant and Maxi in form but Rahul edges that for them. Better spinners. Seamers in better form.

Anything can happen in one game though. Maybe Starc catches fire as he has in the past and blows through three early. Maybe the pitch suits Zampa. Maybe one of Head or Maxi really come off batting as they can and have this tournament. Lots of way that Australia could cause an upset. There are a lot of champion cricketers in that Australia squad. It would definitely be an upset though.

Ha ha there are a lot of "IF"s in KP_fan's anxious prognostications... but I do think he has a point about the close game experience of Australia v India's generally comfortable progress to the final.
But of course that factor can cut both ways : might be Australia have used up their ration of winning the small moments (which of course isn't just luck - but luck does come into it) in tight finishes. And India should have boundless confidence to do whatever they need to top off their dominant WC.

Truth is of course that a one-off game between two good teams can always go either way. This is no exception. Toss may be a significant factor : SA probably made a mistake yesterday in batting first ; but most of the time , good teams batting first have gained an advantage from doing so.

Both teams do have weaknesses. India do have a long tail : just haven't needed it to do much wagging so far. But Australia are more reliant on part timers to fill out their bowling - and outside of the top three and the mercurial Maxwell - can't match India for explosive bats.

Hope it will be a good game to finish this often lack-lustre competition. Think India will win but am not putting the house on it. Off on holiday to North Queensland tomorrow so probably won't be online for the final (even if I can safely avoid the crocodiles) and will leave further commentary to the rest of you ... enjoy

I am glad experienced posters here seeing many holes in Aussie composition that I am unable to for now.
My vision for now is limited to seeing gaping holes in the Indian side only as amply repeated here.

Tomorrow will start the charade of pitch & on Sunday we will see if the Aussie captain or camera get to see what the tossed coin landed as.

KP_fan wrote:I am glad experienced posters here seeing many holes in Aussie composition that I am unable to for now.
My vision for now is limited to seeing gaping holes in the Indian side only as amply repeated here.

Tomorrow will start the charade of pitch & on Sunday we will see if the Aussie captain or camera get to see what the tossed coin landed as.

Maybe it's a 'special' coin, KP_F. Modi's head on one side... Dhoni on the other. Rohit to call 'heads'.  

Pal Joey wrote:

KP_fan wrote:I am glad experienced posters here seeing many holes in Aussie composition that I am unable to for now.
My vision for now is limited to seeing gaping holes in the Indian side only as amply repeated here.

Tomorrow will start the charade of pitch & on Sunday we will see if the Aussie captain or camera get to see what the tossed coin landed as.

Maybe it's a 'special' coin, KP_F. Modi's head on one side... Dhoni on the other. Rohit to call 'heads'.  

you might have said that in jest, but many in Indian discussion groups are speculating half seriously a coin with 2 heads and Rohit gets to call
Too much is at stake for Modi to show a world cup win at his self named stadium

The nerves must be building, I remember watching England in the 2019 final and I was literally shaking at times. Just pray it doesn't go to a super over. Easy to sit here as a neutral and say but I think India have much the better team and will win, though it may be fraught at times

Illingworth and Kettleborough will be umpiring the final, so nice to see England have some representation, just like with the Rugby Union. Joel Wilson is third umpire.

Finals tend to be close nervy affairs as the occasion tends to win out. That'll probably be a bigger leveller for Australia than anything else given the weight of expectation on India in front of a sell out home crowd

Pitch updates:

1. The Pitch   as of today
It couldn't be confirmed if the track used for the final is a used one or fresh surface ...say HIndu report
I see a very thin & sparse cover of small green grass that will hold the soil together which immediately makes it worth more than the standard 275

2. “315 likely be a defendable score as batting second will be difficult in World Cup final”: Pitch Curator
https://crictoday.com/cricket/news/315-likely-be-a-defendable-score-as-batting-second-will-be-difficult-in-world-cup-final-pitch-curator/
We will judge the par on Sunday

3. Atkinson the ICC Pitch expert fired .
The bully is often petty & vindictive

What will be ICC pitch consultant Andy Atkinson's future was a question floating around as the burly New Zealander was nowhere to be seen during pitch preparation 48 hours ahead of the World Cup final between India and Australia.
It is learnt that Atkinson had already left the country as his assignment is already over.

"Andy's assignment is over and he has gone back. Don't try to find controversy where there is none. Nowhere it is written that ICC's pitch consultant need to be present before final," a BCCI source told PTI on conditions of anonymity

https://www.thehindu.com/sport/cricket/icc-world-cup/world-cup-final-icc-pitch-consultant-atkinson-back-home-as-bcci-curators-monitor-preparations/article67544530.ece

Times of India are now reporting that Atkinson is in India but wasn't present on Friday as he was, "travelling with an ICC delegation". Given Atkinson reportedly travelled to the Narendra Modi Stadium on the day of the India vs NZ SF after that fallout to ensure the pitch wasn't interfered with again this seems unrealistic. The veil is fully dropping at this stage. It was a BCCI event in all but name. Now it is in name as well.

Cricinfo report implies there might be two pitches.
I hope they inform Cummins before the toss which pitch will be used

From high up there, an area that is open to people to take in the view on non-match days, you could see the curator rolling one of the surfaces to the right, not dead centre.

Only a while earlier, they were working on a surface next to it, after the covers had been peeled off. It set tongues wagging. What's happening to the pitch? Are they going to change it? Again?

Dravid and Rohit spent considerable time trying to study whatever they could. From a distance, it wasn't quite clear if they looked at one pitch or two.

Duty281 wrote:Illingworth and Kettleborough will be umpiring the final, so nice to see England have some representation, just like with the Rugby Union. Joel Wilson is third umpire.

India media pointed out this on Kettelborough and momentum building up on Social media to remove Kettelborough
Why take a chance with one bad luck element when you have fixed all and have power to fix this too.

Kettleborough's appointment however may not be very good news for India. This is not the first time he would officiate in an ICC tournament knockout match involving India. Since their last ICC title in the Champions Trophy in 2013, India have been involved in eight knockout matches in various ICC events and Kettelborough was a part of the umpires panel in seven of those.


Hindustan Times

1987 was first time I waited anxiously for an Indian k.O , semis of world cup
Uneasy sleep, wishing it started sooner than it did...
Many decades later same feelings probably exaggerated due to content on social media.

Bcci's shenanigans notwithstanding we have a good team that has played great cricket and deserves to win.
20 years back we were in finals vs Aus,  I lived in America and we were walloped by Aussies in 2003 final.

Toss coming up soon

Both teams unchanged
Cummins chose to bowl first...surprising given the pressure of chasing
But Cummins says the pitch is dry now and expects it to be better for bowling

All 3 games have been won by team chasing in this world cup in Ahmedabad

2 edges and both fallen short
Pitch slo should grip
275 will be a good score

The effectiveness of Maxwell with ball has been a massive boost for the team Australia pick. India had a fast start but now the pressure is on. Kohli has to go big

Today was not the occasion or pitch for Rohit to keep charging
He had to bat like he did vs Eng and bat 40 overs
Worst of my nightmares ...ind's 8 thru 11 tailenders will be required to bat

GSC wrote:The effectiveness of Maxwell with ball has been a massive boost for the team Australia pick. India had a fast start but now the pressure is on. Kohli has to go big

I've often felt that Maxi can be a bit underrated as a bowler in ODIs and at times overrated in T20s. He doesn't have variation but he is fairly accurate. In higher level T20s that can tend to disappear. If bowled at smart times in ODIs an accurate offie can twirl through overs though.

This feels very even to me. A lot hinges on this partnership for India as they'll want Sky and Jadeja to attack the last 20 overs. Their RR is still very good considering the power these two, Sky and Jadeja have though.

Given getting Virat right now would be a hammer blow I think I'd often have Australia just ahead. Runs on the board in a final with India's outstanding bowling is a good place to be though. Whilst Australia's batting has been rather characterised by needing individuals to come off in a big way. I feel India should be better than others have been at reigning batters such as Head in if they start flying.

That said... I'm not sure about Marsh coming on here. Given India are consolidating trying to sneak in a few overs from a 6th bowler is smart. I'd be using Head though.

Turning into the kind of contest Australia would've wanted, a nervy attritional one that's taking the crowd out of the game and ramping up the pressure on India. The fast start has almost vanished

Cummins making changes very fast
Ind has scored 40 in last 11
Aua get Kohli and Ind will be 225

Kohli bats into 45th and we get to 275

Sense we're reaching a tipping point. Some boundaries or a wicket are just around the corner. I'd be pressing the attack if I were Australia.

Kl and Kohli soaking up
They need to get to 40th over
Aus need a wicket....excellent choke applied by them
Pressure is huge being applied on india

That's the world cup decisively swung in Aus favor
Lo and behold the lower order of India that dodged the bullet until now

If we go 6 down...last 4 can go down in 15 runs
That's how bad our 8 thru 11 are

Jadeja in ahead of Yadav. Seems sensible, I wouldn't trust the most overhyped player in history to be out there now. Indian fans can thank me later if I reverse jinx a 60 ball hundred from this comment

For the first time this world cup india change their script mid game sending Jadeja before SKY
Which btw they should always have done .....Jadeja is much more organized
But after 10 games changing script shows
A Pressure getting to Indians
B losing confidence in Sky innthr middle of final thereby doubting theor own choice

Could be the iconic image of this tournament if Australia win

Interesting. Have been watching this in an Irish pub in Cairns : nice clear pictures but for some reason all the scorecards and captions were in Arabic …the barman didn’t know why either

Anyway the game is nicely poised. Odd choice from Cummins to field first , I thought : that dew again , eh ? Rocket start ; couple of quick wickets - and then Kohli and Rahul seemed set on batting to 40 without risk. All turned on its head when Kohli played on : lot on Rahul now to see India on to that 280 or so that most seem to think will be required.

Not at all like many of those early games . Definitely enough there for the bowlers to mean runs won’t come easy. Very open , I reckon.

What broadcasters did not show today
Amazing how the security ring was breached

alfie wrote:Interesting. Have been watching this in an Irish pub in Cairns : nice clear pictures but for some reason all the scorecards and captions were in Arabic …the barman didn’t know why either

Alfie, are you sure it's not the Hindi channel 505... try Ch 501 for English commentary on Fox

Rahul is soaking pressure well
We need to bat 50 overs...ball is reversing.
Cummins decision to bowl first a good one

Pitch so dry and gripping and slow....and will get wet with dew
Jadeja falls
225 would be good if we get to it

Pal Joey wrote:

alfie wrote:Interesting. Have been watching this in an Irish pub in Cairns : nice clear pictures but for some reason all the scorecards and captions were in Arabic …the barman didn’t know why either

Alfie, are you sure it's not the Hindi channel 505... try Ch 501 for English commentary on Fox

Ha…back in my hotel now and the local feed… no problem. Hazlewood gets Jadeja and India are deep in trouble now at 178/5…

Not getting too far ahead but Australia will be happy with the way this is going.

Should they try to push for 270 and risk falling for 230
Or go for safe 245ish that's what the batters must be having on their mind

Think this should be comfortably over 250. 270-280 right in the game imo

6 down KL got an unplayable reverse nibbler
Now 8 thru 11 will bat and see how many they can get

With Starc doing for Rahul , India really are in strife…only the rabbits left to support SKY.

Aussie seamers have been excellent . Can India scrape over 250 from here ? Not calling it yet as we all know how these games can swing: but I fancy a lot of Indian fans are chewing the ends off their umbrellas…or whatever Indian fans chew when they see Disaster Looming

Shami no help… seven down and that 250 looking a long way off.

Shami , india's no.8 is slightly worse as a batter than Hazelwood who is Aus's No. 11

Can we eek out 20 more runs

KP_fan wrote:Can we eek out 20 more runs

Maybe. But even then , this looks set up for the likes of Smith and Labuschagne , who can bat at their own pace and make sure Australia have wickets in hand late to finish the job (when presumably the magical dew will have arrived)

India will need to do a lot of early damage …

Think this is well short. One of Australia's big players knocks a big hole in the total and they should be able to manage it home.

Sky Yadav and ODI Cricket - name a worse combo!

India had one gaping Crack, their soft underbelly which goes from 7 thru 11
( add SKY to it who probably played his last ODI(
Aus got to it yanked their finger and full hand thru it.
That attempt to be extra smart with the pitch did BCCI in further.

A miracle from bowlers is needed and I don't see it coming

14 from the last pair might be pivotal.

Feels a decent way short if one of Australia's big bats punches a hole in it, but early wickets and pressure of chasing in a WC final may tell