Is Nadal Now The Wimbledon Favorite?

First topic message reminder :

Last year Nadal felt unable to compete at Wimbledon but this year he's feeling a little better

"I want to try to play well again in Wimbledon," he said. "I'm healthy. That's the most important thing."

"I hope my knee will have the positive feeling on grass, because I feel my knee is better than last year on the rest of the surfaces,"

"Grass always was a little bit harder for me after the injury. Last year I tried, but I was not ready to compete at Wimbledon.

"Let's see how my feelings are there this year, but it's a very important tournament."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/27757048

Is Nadal now the favorite to add to his Wimbledon trophy collection? Nadal always has to win Wimbledon the tricky way as part of a channel slam but despite this I reckon he is now the favorite  

The old Jimmy Connors maxim holds as good today as it ever did.

Once you choose to walk out onto the court, you're fit to play.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

kneel_before_nadal wrote:This year Nadal won 6 matches at the AO with the worst hand blisters of his career.

So?

It's another amazing fact.

legendkillarV2 wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

kneel_before_nadal wrote:This year Nadal won 6 matches at the AO with the worst hand blisters of his career.

So?

It's another amazing fact.

  

dont know about nadal just yet, but murray is indeed looking sharp so far

and he is the defending champion, so, for me, of what I saw, murray is the favourite so far

Jahu wrote:

laverfan wrote:

Jahu wrote:When you talk about Federer, you must get up and respect the guy.

  

LF, do I have a spare Joker now, to be used when I get nasty?   

Yes, you do sweetheart.   Your irreverence is infectious, but please, pretty please (with a Cherry on Top) do not pick a fight with SoCal.

I miss SoCal, as I do miss HE.

naxroy wrote:dont know about nadal just yet, but murray is indeed looking sharp so far

and he is the defending champion, so, for me, of what I saw, murray is the favourite so far

Rola and BA are not good grass opposition. Goffin is better on Clay than Grass.

Nadal in Rosol and Klizan had better opposition, IMVHO.

@KbN.. you like Nadal. Fantastic. Take some inspiration from H-n, Nax, MThierry, Lydian, et al.

laverfan wrote:@KbN.. you like Nadal. Fantastic. Take some inspiration from H-n, Nax, MThierry, Lydian, et al.

+1   

Thanks, JHM.

laverfan wrote:

naxroy wrote:dont know about nadal just yet, but murray is indeed looking sharp so far

and he is the defending champion, so, for me, of what I saw, murray is the favourite so far

Rola and BA are not good grass opposition. Goffin is better on Clay than Grass.

Nadal in Rosol and Klizan had better opposition, IMVHO.

How many grass court titles have Rosol and Klizan had ? Agut has just won one last week plus had won his first 2 rounds here. Who was the seeded player ?

well, lets see what sensations nadal leaves tomorrow in third round.

its true bautista comes from winning a grass title, which is more than what klizan or rosol can say. but its also true that both rosol and klizan, look more of a threat against nadal than bautista against murray (both examples on grass of course)

Nothing against Nadal. I could see him going on to win the tournament and would have no issues. Rosol for some reason seems to be a good match up against him on grass but doesn't really do much else. I can't see why Klizan seems to be so highly rated on grass.

it is not that he is rated as a great grasscourter, it is that he is a big hitter, and in a first round that was the kind of players nadal wanted to avoid, people who give him no rithym, tend not to lose their serves and can hurt his second serve with deep flat groundstrokes

JuliusHMarx wrote:

laverfan wrote:@KbN.. you like Nadal. Fantastic. Take some inspiration from H-n, Nax, MThierry, Lydian, et al.

+1   

I guess KBN should be allowed to continue the way he/she is, as long as polite and civilized all arguments are acceptable. You guys know better than me, i don't support most of his views but I like his/her presence, we really need a aggressive counter punching Nadal fan   

naxroy wrote:it is not that he is rated as a great grasscourter, it is that he is a big hitter, and in a first round that was the kind of players nadal wanted to avoid, people who give him no rithym, tend not to lose their serves and can hurt his second serve with deep flat groundstrokes

+1, exactly, Klizan is a mug on any surface, but certainly a big hitter on his day could hurt big, Klizan 1st round is a nightmare for anybody, he did prove that in the 1st set and half against Rafa, but he also proved why he is a mugh otherwise.   

Klizan and Rosol, are big-hitters unlike BA, who may have a title, that he got thanks to a mental fart by a certain Melzer in the Den Bosch semi-final and Becker who could have won the title in the second set TB, but chose to dig a hole for himself.

The best win for BA is the Del Potro one at AO.

Rosol beating Nadal at W 2012 is better than a Den Bosch title, IMVHO. He made Nadal chicken for a set and half on Grass, as did Klizan at RG.

Klizan's 8-match Munich win on Clay was an excellent one as well. He seems to be poor man's Berdych.

Anderson should be a good test for Murray with a big serve on Grass and some competency in volleying skills.

laverfan wrote:Klizan and Rosol, are big-hitters unlike BA, who may have a title, that he got thanks to a mental fart by a certain Melzer in the Den Bosch semi-final and Becker who could have won the title in the second set TB, but chose to dig a hole for himself.

The best win for BA is the Del Potro one at AO.

Rosol beating Nadal at W 2012 is better than a Den Bosch title, IMVHO. He made Nadal chicken for a set and half on Grass, as did Klizan at RG.

Klizan's 8-match Munich win on Clay was an excellent one as well. He seems to be poor man's Berdych.

Anderson should be a good test for Murray with a big serve on Grass and some competency in volleying skills.

Anderson any day could beat Murray on most surfaces barring grass, Murray is a different player now on grass and specifically on Wimbledon, I don't even give Anderson a set that too being an Anderson fan and a guy who backed Anderson to win againt Murray this year on some hard court tournament can't remember which one it was.

Anderson is playing awesome and living to my expectation, but seriously no chance against Murray to even steal a set.  

Bautista-Agut is more consistent in all departments/surfaces than Klizan and Rosol hence he has reached far higher in the ranking than they have. Klizan and Rosol have been dismantled by other top players before by players other than Nadal - they are just a bad match-up for him but others can and have dispatched them comfortably. In short all Klizan and Rosol bring to the table is that they are hard hitters but consistency is nowhere.

I made some waffles for breakfast for my favorite Nadal fan, KbN, since he is probably tired and is taking the tennis a little too serious   

laverfan wrote:Klizan and Rosol, are big-hitters unlike BA, who may have a title, that he got thanks to a mental fart by a certain Melzer in the Den Bosch semi-final and Becker who could have won the title in the second set TB, but chose to dig a hole for himself.

The best win for BA is the Del Potro one at AO.

Rosol beating Nadal at W 2012 is better than a Den Bosch title, IMVHO. He made Nadal chicken for a set and half on Grass, as did Klizan at RG.

Klizan's 8-match Munich win on Clay was an excellent one as well. He seems to be poor man's Berdych.

Anderson should be a good test for Murray with a big serve on Grass and some competency in volleying skills.

So you have now asterisked Agut's grass court title (bit like you did on another thread yesterday for Del Potro's USO win) because it was his opponents frailties that let him win. Nothing to do with the fact the he won enough sets in all the matches he played to win them and the title. If your opponent cannot maintain their level throughout a match that is their problem. Having a 'mental fart' or a meltdown should not take away from the winner.

Murray has looked magnificent to be honest. Moving great, confident, striking the backhand superbly. BA is the perfect opponent for him though. He doesn't have the power to hit through Murray, so Murray can just play with him.

He's a better player than Rosol or Klizan, but Murray would been troubled more against Rosol or Klizan because of how they play. Also, it's been a tougher start for Rafa just because he has struggled to transition to grass in recent years. The fact that he's got through a tough start makes me think he'll be in the final.

In terms of favourite, I'm not sure. Murray will probably have to beat Dimitrov, Novak and Rafa back to back which is a monumental task. Dimitrov looks a fantastic grass court player. I think that'll be a big test for Andy.

Don't disagree with any of that Danny. It's just the dismissive way Murray's opponent's were written off that got to me. 'Goffin is better on clay than grass' correct but so is Klizan.' BA is not good grass court opposition'. He had just won a grass court title but now we know it was only because his S/F and F opponents handed him the matches.

Nadal so far looks better than he looked in 2008 and 2010 Wimbledon.

Murray doesn't look any better than his 3 meetings with Nadal at Wimbledon.

Calder106 wrote:So you have now asterisked Agut's grass court title (bit like you did on another thread yesterday for Del Potro's USO win) because it was his opponents frailties that let him win. Nothing to do with the fact the he won enough sets in all the matches he played to win them and the title. If your opponent cannot maintain their level throughout a match that is their problem.

Let us see what Murray v Anderson looks like. I have not asterisked anyone's win. If you think Murray's opposition so far has a good grass pedigree, that is fine.

Goffin (105), Rola (92), BA (23), Rosol (52), Klizan (51), Kukushkin (63) are the respective rankings. Just because BA is at 23 does not mean much, does it? Just watch Kukushkin playing Nadal in a TB right now. Are you saying #23 was playing better than this?

Calder106 wrote: Having a 'mental fart' or a meltdown should not take away from the winner.  

See this https://www.606v2.com/t54492p200-wimbledon-day-4#2700146

LF, I think Murray, in the form he has shown so far, would be talking care of Rafa's opponents more easily than Rafa is doing.

JuliusHMarx wrote:LF, I think Murray, in the form he has shown so far, would be talking care of Rafa's opponents more easily than Rafa is doing.

Spot on.   

However, it is all about match-ups. These players Rafa has played are players who hit big which causes Rafa problems on grass. That is not to see they are any better than Agut as ranking suggests otherwise but are just layers with a game more likely to cause Rafa problems whereas Andy would probably have less trouble against them. Likewise Andy's game or his gameplan does not match-up well to Rafa.

laverfan wrote:

Calder106 wrote:So you have now asterisked Agut's grass court title (bit like you did on another thread yesterday for Del Potro's USO win) because it was his opponents frailties that let him win. Nothing to do with the fact the he won enough sets in all the matches he played to win them and the title. If your opponent cannot maintain their level throughout a match that is their problem.

Let us see what Murray v Anderson looks like. I have not asterisked anyone's win. If you think Murray's opposition so far has a good grass pedigree, that is fine.

Goffin (105), Rola (92), BA (23), Rosol (52), Klizan (51), Kukushkin (63) are the respective rankings. Just because  BA is at 23 does not mean much, does it? Just watch Kukushkin playing Nadal in a TB right now. Are you saying #23 was playing better than this?

Calder106 wrote: Having a 'mental fart' or a meltdown should not take away from the winner.  

See this https://www.606v2.com/t54492p200-wimbledon-day-4#2700146

Murray v Anderson should be a good game. It wouldn't surprise me if Anderson pushed Murray very close or even beat him. Yes Kukushkin is playing lights out tennis just now can he keep it up though. Klizan and Rosol couldn't in the first two rounds. I'm not saying that Agut is better or worse than these guys. Just think that since he did win a grass court tournament recently that he is not as easy an opponent as you are making out.

Don't understand what I'm meant to pick up from your link.

Clearly Agut is more consistent than Rosol and Klizan hence his ranking. Those that reach higher in the rankings do so by having a more consistent game.

Murray has been cruising as has Federer.

Djokovic and Nadal seem so have started slower, but given their respective strength and energy levels they can absorb these early scares and still find form at the latter stages of a Slam.

Calder106 wrote:Don't understand what I'm meant to pick up from your link.

laverfan wrote:There is an argument to be made about the mental fragility of such an opponent.

Such mental frailties make a difference between greatness and mediocrity.

Regrading Federer's meltdown @USO 2009, Del Potro was double-bagelled at AO that year, but came close at RG and finally won at USO. His wrist has never been good after that. Even Kukushkin has shown no gumption after the first set, but Nadal is having problems closing the match.

JuliusHMarx wrote:LF, I think Murray, in the form he has shown so far, would be talking care of Rafa's opponents more easily than Rafa is doing.

I quite agree. Nadal has made a hash of his matches, perhaps except the Rosol one. It was Rosol's to lose, and he did. Even Kukushkin could not sustain it. (He played against Stan the Man at DC though).

There is a Wee Keira argument lurking somewhere, but I want to stay away from that. Haase, Petzschner, Haas, Hewitt are much better grass court players at their peaks, than the current crop.

laverfan wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:LF, I think Murray, in the form he has shown so far, would be talking care of Rafa's opponents more easily than Rafa is doing.

I quite agree. Nadal has made a hash of his matches, perhaps except the Rosol one. It was Rosol's to lose, and he did. Even Kukushkin could not sustain it. (He played against Stan the Man at DC though).

There is a Wee Keira argument lurking somewhere, but I want to stay away from that. Haase, Petzschner, Haas, Hewitt are much better grass court players at their peaks, than the current crop.

There doesn't need to be a Wee Keira debate. I think the calibre of opponent doesn't need to be defined just on which surface they are good on, but much rather their experience. Look at Djokovics draw which had Stepanek and Simon in it before the 4th round. Baguette granted totally unproven on grass. I wouldn't however place Klizan above Goffin or Baguette for that matter IMO.

laverfan wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:LF, I think Murray, in the form he has shown so far, would be talking care of Rafa's opponents more easily than Rafa is doing.

I quite agree. Nadal has made a hash of his matches, perhaps except the Rosol one. It was Rosol's to lose, and he did. Even Kukushkin could not sustain it. (He played against Stan the Man at DC though).

There is a Wee Keira argument lurking somewhere, but I want to stay away from that. Haase, Petzschner, Haas, Hewitt are much better grass court players at their peaks, than the current crop.

Sorry I don't see what you are getting at. Rosol, Klizan and Kukushkin are far lower ranked players than the heights reached by Haase, Petzchner, Haas and Hewitt. That being the case the fact they have each won a set off Rafa suggests strength of the era if anything.

Nadal is playing WAY better this year at Wimbledon than at 2010 Wimbledon.

Best serving and best backhand slicing of Nadal's Wimbledon career. Federer must be mighty unhappy now. Nadal delivered 3 breadsticks today INDOORS, and they might as well have had Federer's name on them .....

R2: 46 winners 11 unforced errors 11 aces
R3: 41 winners 12 unforced errors 9 aces

Is that a fact?

Hmmm he won in straight sets in 2010 in 1st Round V Nishikori, 2nd Round won in 5 sets against Haase (would say he was better than any of the opponents he has faced so far) and taken to five sets in 3rd Round against the seeded Petzschner. So in 2010 against much better players he dropped four sets in the first three rounds whereas here has dropped three sets against players all ranked 50+ in the world so that statement is very dubious.

^ Except 2014 Rosol clearly played better than 2010 Haase and Petz.

kneel_before_nadal wrote:^ Except 2014 Rosol clearly played better than 2010 Haase and Petz.

Did he really? Evidence please.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

kneel_before_nadal wrote:^ Except 2014 Rosol clearly played better than 2010 Haase and Petz.

Did he really? Evidence please.

The matches are the evidence obviously.

kneel_before_nadal wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

kneel_before_nadal wrote:^ Except 2014 Rosol clearly played better than 2010 Haase and Petz.

Did he really? Evidence please.

The matches are the evidence obviously.

No seriously where is the evidence?

^ Seriously, you have to watch the matches.

Rosol played nowhere near the level of 2012.

That is a fact.

Rosol 2014 didn't play better than 2010 Haase or Petzschner.

That is another fact.

^ No facts in your post.

Nadal was taken to 5 sets by both in 2010

Only 4 with Rosol

Again facts

Aces: Rosol 17 Haas 28

Double Faults: Rosol 2 Haase 2

1st Serves In: Rosol 58% Haase 68%

1st Serve Points Won: Rosol 77% Haase 75%

2nd Serve Points Won: Rosol 54% Haase 45%

Hahahah this is thread of the year   

CaledonianCraig wrote:Hmmm he won in straight sets in 2010 in 1st Round V Nishikori, 2nd Round won in 5 sets against Haase (would say he was better than any of the opponents he has faced so far) and taken to five sets in 3rd Round against the seeded Petzschner. So in 2010 against much better players he dropped four sets in the first three rounds whereas here has dropped three sets against players all ranked 50+ in the world so that statement is very dubious.

TBH I think Nadal is playing better in 2014 than 2010.

Yes Nadal was dropping sets to better players in 2010, but following what happened in 2012/2013. Many people felt that Nadal can now be bombed out earlier on grass.

I mean Nadal was 0/3 on grass prior to beating Klizan. So his confidence must've been pretty low but he's found a way to win and with every passing match looks stronger.

legendkillarV2 wrote:Nadal was taken to 5 sets by both in 2010

Only 4 with Rosol

Again facts

Rosol played better than Haase and Petz.

Gerry SA wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:Hmmm he won in straight sets in 2010 in 1st Round V Nishikori, 2nd Round won in 5 sets against Haase (would say he was better than any of the opponents he has faced so far) and taken to five sets in 3rd Round against the seeded Petzschner. So in 2010 against much better players he dropped four sets in the first three rounds whereas here has dropped three sets against players all ranked 50+ in the world so that statement is very dubious.

TBH I think Nadal is playing better in 2014 than 2010.

Yes Nadal was dropping sets to better players in 2010, but following what happened in 2012/2013. Many people felt that Nadal can now be bombed out earlier on grass.

I mean Nadal was 0/3 on grass prior to beating Klizan. So his confidence must've been pretty low but he's found a way to win and with every passing match looks stronger.

Of course there are truths in what you say but dropping sets in three consecutive matches against players ranked 50+ in the world is not form that shouts out - unbeatable. That is the point I am getting at. If he comes up against someone more consistent and hits big he will not find their level dropping off and pressure will grow and comebacks become much tougher.

kneel_before_nadal wrote:Federer must be mighty unhappy now.

That must be a fact, because kneel only states facts.