Azzrentice - Task 2 - Team Unicorn - Bam, Dolph, Nads, Renege

Who wants to be team leader?

Do any of you use Football Index? I've been invested in it since October, I'm not really massively active on it, but managed to go from £160 to just over £300 in that time mainly by buying a load of Frenkie De Jong and Ndombele shares

Think there's a few bits to read up on to really understand how it works, but definitely research how media buzz, performance buzz and dividends work.

Its not just about who is the next big youngster coming through, some of the established players are absolute goldmines

Also research the share split that happened recently, I'll post up my portfolio if I can figure out how to add a picture from my phone

Also, I'm away from Tuesday - Tuesday so there will be a limit to how much I can help on this one. I'm in Vegas though, so you may not want to take my gambling advice very seriously after a few days there anyway

I just don’t understand it, at all

Need to get organised if you want to make a success of this one guys

I'd suggest giving splitting into two sub teams, one looking at goalkeepers and defence, the others at midfield and attack - the way the scoring, dividends and price rises work varies between the positions so needs a fair bit of focus.

Need someone to take the lead and get moving on it though

Have a read through this Dolph

https://www.thepunterspage.com/football-index-ultimate-guide/

I do understand the gist of it.

Surprised you lost money on Skriniar bam.

Think I bought him at his high point, it was between him and Koulibaly as I expected one of them to be getting all the speculation, and ended up picking the wrong one!

Just had a look at Luka Jovic. Thought he'd increase in value since moving to Real but he's slightly decreased. His highest price was around May time before his move to Real.

Yup, its not surprising though. A lot of people would have jumped on him early in expectation of a move, and as soon as he did get the move confirmed they would have been cashing out to target someone else who may move this summer

I reckon you'll see similar with De Ligt, his value has risen for most of the season, but if / when he moves to Barca it'll drop off

Would you say the best time to invest in players like Jovic/De Ligt would be when their prices go down after they move clubs or wouldn't that work.

Its difficult to say, because there's so many reasons for prices to move.

Pogba has been near enough the top priced player the whole time I've been on FI because he is constantly in the news for whatever reason, leading to media dividends which has caused his price to rocket.

Messi is always up there too, because his performance rankings are nearly always the best, and he gets plenty of goal / assist boosts too

Then you've got someone like De Ligt / Frenkie De Jong who got a big boost because of transfer rumours, but play in positions where there isn't likely to be as easy a chance to get the big performance dividends

I'd probably look at balancing it out between the three types of player I mention above, Pogba would definitely be in the team for me, just look at his price progression over the past year and can't imagine it getting any worse as he'll probably spend the entire season in the news

Think if we can pick a team balanced between
a) Media buzz - Pogba types
b) Strong performances
c) Next summer's big transfer moves

I reckon we have a good shot

Talent and such I can do, all day long. It’s the system I don’t get. Looking at the site, it looked like a Betfair exchange market, mixed with Sporting Index. Everyone seemed to be around 2.02 or something, but to what that means, I don’t know.

I would assume the best system is to identify players before the hype. Ones that might get good moves, but aren’t attracting the buzz? So, Pogba, Eriksen, Hovic, De Ligt etc are already near a peak as it’s clear they are going to move for big money.

I'll be the team leader this task if rof and Dolph have no objections.

I like that plan bam.

If we can get a shortlist of the players we want we can all work together and shorten the list down to the best lineup. So in defence we should choose 2 left backs, 2 right backs and 4 centre backs. Then we'll narrow it down to fit them into the starting lineup. Or is this to OTT?

Now to split up teams. Who wants to focus on what area?

I’d happily team lead if I can get my head around the index, but I’d suggest you do it if you’re confident of understanding the site.

Do you want the split? Can I suggest, especially with Bam away for a bit, that we start with each person shortlisting a selection they think has potential?

I would also guess the other way to do it is mix two groups as big names and outside prospects?

Also: do you have to invest more to get gains on the likes of a Pogba? Or if I put £10 into him, do I make money per million his value rises? So you get more bang for your buck with a big name? Ie, can I buy as much Pofbtas I can Matty Phillips for £10?

How are the values decided? By people on the site buying and selling like stock?

What leagues are covered? I searched for a Brazilian prospect who I know is going to go for big money, but he wasn’t on there

Yep, its just like the stock market for companies. If someone went and pumped in £1m and only bought Pogba, his price would sky rocket

Let me know what you want me to do, I have the rest of this afternoon and tomorrow morning before I'm away until next Tuesday

In terms of the leagues, the main thing to note is that dividends are only earned on the top 5 leagues, so naturally players there are more valuable

https://footyindexscout.co.uk/page/what-is-the-performance-buzz

Oh god, I didn’t even realise they did dividends payouts like that. So you also make money on media attention, so diamonds in the rough don’t pay off any other time than around a move.

So it would be wise to take a look at who the transfer sagas are gonna be around this summer?

I understand most of it Dolph but just the Dividend part is a bit confusing. So if you want to you can be the team leader this task I really don't mind. I would prefer to scout players tbh.

I don’t get any of it, so I think we’d be daft to let me do it. Even seeing how this line will be used to fire me, it would be a daft move for me to take it on and then shrug at decision making time cos I don’t understand the site

Yup, that's why I think the three types of players we should target that I mentioned above would work well, it gives a good balance.

This may be something we need to ask Azzy for clarification of, but if he's including dividends in how he evaluates the submissions then that is a very different ask compared to a pure price rise

Yeah I think it'd be best to get clarification from azzy before starting the task.

I’m This index doesn’t seem to have all players on it? Getting fed up searching to see players not on it. Don’t get it?
I’ll give my take anyway. Will we all suggest a list each?

Gk - Cragno. 28p seems dirt cheap, was Europe’s best keeper according to who scored. Only 24 so young and being linked with moves.

Rb - Pol Lirola 46p. Most assists in Serie a for a full back, at a small club so could get move. Barca trained and Spanish youth international - had class training to stand him in good stead
Lb - B.Mendy 97p, had terrible time with injuries but when fit he’s top class so great potential rise. Also likeable guy which will be good for him on an index based on hype.
Lb 2 - Luca Pellegrini- Great few months out on loan could establish himself as Roma’s lb next season 
CBS - Varane 65p - Seems under priced?
CB 2/3- 
Jose Jiminez 55p - Again under priced?
Jan Bednarek 40p - Was different class for Southampton second half of last season. Another season like that and he’ll win a move, Soton are a selling club
Nicklas Stark 37p - Former Germany u21 captain being linked with moves this summer
Nikola Maksimovic 22p - Potential gamble as a future starter for Napoli 

Cm 1 - Dani Ceballos 88p - likely to leave Real, he’s impressed hugely at times for Real and Spain but Zidane isn’t a fan and simply with Kroos and Modric there was little hope. Could be a household name elsewhere and regular for Spain as he’s only in his early 20s. Can easily be as good as Ruiz who is worth twice as much 

Cm 2 - Joao Carvalho 48p, Young and shown great potential in first season in England fancy his second will be a lot better 

Cm 3 - Kante only 45p or so. If we need balance there’s no better option, and 45p seems really cheap. I don’t get the pricing?

Forwards

Angel Correa 52p - With Griezzman leaving Correa might get a proper chance in a free role. With that freedom he could do a lot more damage and get hype

Gaston Pereiro- 54p - Has Copa America to impress at then will likely be sold with only a year on his contract. Big move could see his price jump
Leo Jaba - 39p did well in Greece so could win a move?

Didn’t look at forwards so much but I’m also not sure I even get it

I’ve read a bit more and looked at more players. Focused on lower value players as there’s less risk than the top 200 whose value would be more volatile imo

Also, soon the players outside the top 200 will also get media dividends. So this could also have a positive impact on these players values

Other options:
Dean Henderson 47p - Guessing he’ll be Sheffield United again next season and if he impresses in Prem will jump
Kepa - 45p and played ahead of De Gea for Spain recently 
Sergio Regulion - Nadz? Think he’ll play as much next season 
Rogerio- 47p - Been linked with moves young and on the up
Stan Lobotka - 50p - Linked with a move to Napoli and Spurs
Amadou Diawara - 54p - Linked with big money moves, still highly rated at Napoli too
Leandro Paredes - 59p Doing well at PSG I think? Could impress further at Copa America and get a quick gain

Andrea Belotti - 71p - Not scoring at same rate he was a couple years ago but has a bit of everything to his game and potential to do it again. Been linked with a big move for years and seems quite low priced
Jhon Córdoba - 47p Ripped up Bundesliga 2, promoted to top league and could do the same. Koln paid big money when they signed him as they saw a lot of potential.

Mbappe - 3rd on the list behind Pogba and Neymar. Seems strange he’s not top?

I’ve only just read the comments above properly sorry  

Was away for the weekend and just back so jumped in after reading Azzys post and comment on price rise. Happy with Nadz as project lead

Might jump into this if I get an idea of how it works

I’ve got Lobotka on my list, he’s getting a big move this summer and is at a less than glamorous club

Does anyone else have lists, and then just consolidate based on which ones fit the two types of players being looked at?

Regarding Reguilon I don't think his price will increase. He will probably be loaned out by Real now they've signed Mendy and I don't know if a loan move will affect his value or not. The highest he has been was 55p at the beginning of March and he's dropped down to 50p now.

What's the craic? I have a list and can justify each player, but been holding back as this is easy to see for other team

Ah I didn’t think about the other team, too trusting. Can send by PM?

I haven’t written it up proper, but I’ll send you the preliminary

Rodri and Cancelo both joining City might be worth considering

Rodri looks to have jumped up a lot already on that basis - so think it’s too late for him? Nadz was saying how prices seem to stop going up or go down once players actually move as that’s when folk look to sell

Hey guys, back at work today

I'm going to struggle to do any research, but can help critique anything that has already been put together / help with a write up

Let me know what you need me to do, if I get any time I'll post up a few player suggestions that could be alternatives to what you already have

PM me and bam the list if you can dolph.

Quick thoughts while I eat my lunch

Looking at the time I've been on FI, the biggest risers are the (relatively) under the radar players who have a big season at a young age and are linked with moves to English clubs from January through to the end of the season

The likes of De Ligt, De Jong and Pepe are prime examples of this, us on here would have known about them long before they were even on the platform, but there is a very knowledgeable base now, and I think that its going to be difficult to pick the obvious gems early, like I managed to with Ndombele and De Jong

Suggestions to follow this approach:
Upamecano - can see him being next year's big young centre back, but if its not him it'll probably be his buddy Konate
Jonathan Bamba - was overshadowed by Pepe this year, but think he's the sort of player who will score a lot of goals in France and get a lot of links
Sangare - Arsenal fans on twitter are already making a bit of noise about him, so not sure if he's already seen that benefit, but another who just fits the profile of a Ndombele
Florentino Luis - he's been hyped a fair bit this season, but Benfica are in the CL next season so the opportunity is there for their players

I'd be wary of picking up too many players from the likes of Ajax - as we saw with Monaco, losing a couple of key players can really damage the side and they just don't perform at the same level the next season. Not sure who next season's Ajax / Monaco will be, but someone like Benfica could be a team to target

Others to consider
Skov Olsen
Kabak
Kang In Lee
Max Aarons
Whoever the next Mason Greenwood type would be
Ihattaren
Gravenbach
Naci Unuvar

Some might not be on there, but think they could all fit the mould

Sangare and Skov Olsen i like as a shout, at smaller clubs and really impressing so in prime positions to get a move
The Ditch youngsters might be a good shout but also might be too long term, depends how long we’re going for
Kabak was on Dolph’s list, I thought against putting him on my list since Stuttgart were relegated. That might be more reason for them to sell though still think that’s unlikely after 5 months unless someone goes big for him.

Based on my list and idea of going for under radar my xi would be

D.Henderson
Lirola
Stark
X
Rogerio
Ceballos
Sangare 
Carvalho
Correa
Skov Olsen
Leo Jaba/?

Feels like there's a bit of a lack of exposure to the CL for a lot of the players on that list, its really the teams who unexpectedly get to the last 16 / QFs who seems to pick up a lot of traction.

I haven't seen Dolph's list yet, but if we can add a bit more CL level players then I like what you've got there

My replacements would be
Correa > Bamba or similar - think Felix coming in is going to kibosh the logic for Correa. Also would consider someone like Chiesa here, he's probably going to be at Juve soon
Stark and X > Upamecano / Kabak / Saliba / Sarr

Haven't checked if all of these are on the platform, but midfield options:
Tonali
Zaniolo
Barella
Aouar
Gibbs-White if he gets more game time

One of my favourites is Havertz, he's already highly priced but think Leverkusen could be one of the sides to do well this season and he'd be at the centre of it

I avoided highly priced players - I was aiming for players that are under the radar and there is no hype for as there’s far less risk on them

E.g Lirola and Stark are two that I fancy to get moves in next year but there isn’t the hype or links out there that people will have already acted on for Aarons Saliba etc

On Correa my gamble was that Felix won’t move to Atletico or if he does will take time to settle into Simeones tactics which aren’t easy to adapt to. He’s the player that’s consistently impressed in attack for Atletico. Got potential to improve and get more hype imo. But see arguments against, as is gambling on his role

I would assume we need a mix of potential, on the cusp of moves and bigger name players who will come to the boil this season. I think their side is probably done by now, so I will post my list here as I'm about to sleep

Will edit this with some justification over time:

Wan Bissaka - probably too late now, but obviously he is moving soon and for big money. 
Joe Gomez - he’s gonna play a lot more next season, he's going to be England's first choice and easily best centre back, he's been a little under the radar cos of injury, he's genuinely fantastic.
Naby Keita - if he comes good, his price surely can reflect what was paid for him. I would assume he is low on there compared to what he should be, and he is definitely one who if the risk comes off is going to look a huge part of Liverpool winning the league.
Declan Rice - We are turning down £60m for Diop, Rice is England's future in that midfield going into a Euros year. The boy will go for mega, mega money.
Issa Diop - soon to get a France cap, watched by PSG and Barca, has had Man United interest. He’s on the up. 
Ben Chilwell - would guess he’s already close to his high, but if City interest isn't prominent at the moment, it will be eventually.
Hudson Odoi (likely to come good again after injury?)
Maxi Gomez -will move from Celta Vigo, probably to Valencia, one of only 6 players in the last two seasons to score 30 goals in La Liga and is the future of Uruguay's attack with Suarez and Cavani on the downturn.
Lo Celso (for every Eriksen story, Lo Celso will be mentioned)
Lukaku (Inter transfer seems likely)
Tielemans - He's gonna go for his release clause and be a star worth double the price.
Bruno Fernandes - seems to have cooled down around him lately, obviously a much scouted talent at top tiers.
Both Luton fullbacks - not sure if they're on there, but both are future Prem players.
Maripan - was looking ike a West Ham target, but AC Milan on the sniff and he's going to go cheap.
Sanson (Marseille financial problems)
De Jong (Barca to win the Champions League and him to play a lot)
Brandt - the future of German football. Just gone to Dortmund and will make a big splash there.
Harry Winks - feel like he is gonna have a breakout year
Zapata (and any prominent Atalanta player)
Which Real players are gonna become prominent again? Isco?
Moise Kean - clear why.
Ben Godfrey - Man United in a year, I reckon.
Ryan Fraser - Was noise around him at £30m, unsure now.
Ferland Mendy - too late
Joao Felix - too late
Ryan Sessegnon - Tottenham not moved yet, will happen.
Leon Bailey - think hes gonna explode
Koulibaly - too late?
Ndombele - spursi nterest
Nicolas Pepe - big noise for months now about a big move.
Barella 
Moussa Dembele
Cancelo 
Kabak - fancy this risk
Matt Clarke
Lewis Dunk
Lobotka
Sane
Schulz
Gnabry 
Donny van with beak
Zaniolo

Think a fair few of those may have already reached a bit of a peak, but generally all good picks.

I'd be looking at mixing up the side that Renege put together with a few of the above and a few of my suggestions

If Nads is PM, ultimately its his call to ok the final team, then we need some time to write it up with why we're picking each player

Having a look at current prices, Ceballos may not be worth as much a gamble now. His price has jumped up 33% since I posted last week. 

Sangare is currently 89p. 
Augustin Almendra at 81p touted as next Riquelme could be decent but not likely to get a move this summer.

Mike Maignan - probably the best keeper in the French league this season.
Pedro Porro - with Girona relegated, they could sell him.
Hysaj - being linked with Atletico and Mam United and one I can definitely see leaving. Napoli have bought a right back to replace him aswell.

If you lot can agree on a team I can veto it and then we'll need to do a write up about why we chose them.

My view

GK - Henderson / Maignan

RB - Lirola / Porro
CB - Upamecano / Konate / Kabak / Godfrey / Saliba
LB - Chilwell / Firpo / Rogerio / Vinagre / Pellegrini

DM/CM - Sangare / Tonali / Lobotka / Luis
AM - Havertz

FWD - Bamba / Skov Olsen / Bailey / Zaniolo

Happy for any to be eliminated or added to, but we really need to make a decision today if we're going to have something written up for the submission tomorrow lunchtime

Think we need to make sure we’re looking at current prices 

Havertz is currently 15th highest price on list which seems a very high placing to me?
He’s gone up 3% in last week, also in last month looks similar with a dip in between and that’s a 12p movement. Paredes one I thought was a good shout has also moved up about 10p since I said which is like a 12% gain and so players like that seem a much better gamble to me