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2021 - 5 who will, 5 who won't

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Post by Mr Bounce Fri Jan 01, 2021 1:28 pm

First topic message reminder :

Welcome to 2021 - here's hoping it will be a much better year for all, and Boxing will be back - with crowds! Time to do the usual who will/who won't predictions.

5 who will:

1. Ryan Garcia. Genuinely believe that this kid has it all. Yes there's a lot of hype but he's proved it with every obstacle thrown at him. I think he will walk through Luke Campbell.

2. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez. Continues to beat all in front of him. Picks up the IBF belt by practically decapitating Caleb Plant.

3. Tim Tszyu. Gets his WBO shot late in the year and obliterates Teixeira. Definitely a chip off the old block. Wants to set up a unification bout with Jermell Charlo.

4. Josh Taylor. Gets his meaningful 4 belt fight against Ramirez and continues to impress, beating him in a lopsided UD. Hopes for a huge fight against Teofimo Lopez in 2022.

5. Artur Beterbiev continues to chase belts in the Light Heavyweight division and goes after Bivol. Doesn't get him, but knocks out mandatory Fanlong Meng and Deines in brutal fashion. Edit: once he's recovered from Covid!!

5 who wont

1. Andy Ruiz Jr. Has had his moment of glory. Has a couple of fights at close to 280lbs against no-hope opposition. Nobody cares. His trainer leaves him because Fat Andy won't train.

2. Billy Joe Saunders. Makes another stupid video in the build up to a potential Canelo fight - he then doesn't get the fight.

3. Gennadiy Golovkin. Continues to rack up meaningless IBF contender defences. Charlo and Canelo are not interested.

4. Carl Frampton. Quickly realises that he's out of his depth against Jamel Herring and his corner retire him after 8 rounds. Announces his retirement shortly afterwards.

5. Gervonta Davis. On the cusp of landing a superfight against Lopez, gets arrested for starting a brawl outside a bar. Legal issues keep him out of the ring for several months.

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Post by Herman Jaeger Mon Aug 16, 2021 12:02 pm

Shouldn’t Bivol be fighting Beterbiev before he fights Buatsi? Or does boxing not do finals anymore?


John Scully, a long time aide-de-camp to the Beterbiev team: ‘That’s the biggest and most important fight to make right now at 175 pounds, in my eyes’


Scully says he does not expect Beterbiev to budge from the light heavyweight division anytime soon.

‘Speaking strictly from my opinion, I don’t see him moving up or down in weight right now. Although he boxed at and was successful as a 201 pounder in the amateurs at a very high level, I would say 175 suits him perfectly.

‘One thing people need to understand is that this is a very young 35 year old man. He is a very clean living and devout Muslim who doesn’t drink or smoke or abuse his body in any way. He also has not taken any real punishment as a professional so in this case you have a guy who may very well be at the height of his powers, in the middle of his prime, as opposed to being on the other side of it. His improvement just over his last few fights has been very noticeable and impressive so, in my eyes, I see the best is yet to come for him.’



A Bivol-Beterbiev unification would pit three of the major titles (WBO currently held by Joe Smith Jr)

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Post by Guest Sun Aug 22, 2021 11:28 am

Yordenis Ugas beat Manny Pacquiao by unanimous decision to all but confirm the Filipino greats retirement. Ugas picked Pacquiao apart with his beautiful double jab. Pacquiao looked old and slow.
Cuban Ugas looking at Spence next if the American returns.

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Post by Mr Bounce Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:17 am

Seems like Manny has met Father Time who has advised him that his best fighting days are behind him.

Nothing to be ashamed of. Time to go.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:28 pm

Sadly such is the lack of 'Names' in Boxing....Floyd and Manny could carry on until they are 50 and probably sell..

No one outside Boxing has heard of Canelo and Crawford..and they are 1 and 2.

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Post by 88Chris05 Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:59 pm

Ugas looked very well prepared considering he had less than a fortnight's notice. Any sport other than boxing, and I wouldn't lend any credence to the theory going around that Spence was always going to pull out and it was going to be Ugas all along, unbeknownst to Pacquiao. That way they can give Ugas (for whom a defeat would have been no big deal at all for PCB) to Spence in 2022 and hey presto, Spence has all three of the belts still recognised by the PBC without having to risk a tricky assignment and potentially embarrassing loss against Pacquiao. They can market him as undisputed and it makes his negotiating position for a possible Crawford (remember him?) fight even stronger.

I know, I know. Very conspiratorial. But this is boxing, which is why I never rule this kind of stuff out. I'm sure there are plenty of other fans here just as cynical as me.

Anyway, Ugas' performance itself was very controlled and sharp. Pacquiao just couldn't reach him for the most part and he showed admirable focus when Pacquiao tried to flurry, not losing his shape or feeling the need to please the crowd as some Pacquiao opponents have done at those pressure moments. He looked huge compared to Pacquiao - we kind of expect that  with a lot of Pacquiao's opponents, I guess - but really only needed that jab and the right hand, particularly when he hooked it around Pacquiao's guard, to rack up the points.

Pacquiao looked small, weak and out of ideas. To be honest his peak ended around 2010 (time really does fly and I don't like it one bit), but what we saw at the weekend was a big decline even from his 2018/2019 form, which in all likelihood may well have been enough to beat Ugas.

I don't think we've seen the last of him, mind you. I can see him having one or two homecoming fights in the Philippines, possibly in Macau again, as a way of saying goodbye and going out on a win against a more hand-picked opponent. I'm always loath to write him off but it's hard to see him beating the cream of any division now, and even if he faces guys just below that rung, they'll be heartened by that flat performance and really feel they can beat him, too.

Hopefully he doesn't become another Roy Jones. A faded Pacquiao of the previous few years has still been a damn good fighter in his own right. But I don't want to see a totally washed up one still trying to compete. No disgrace in that defeat, I just hope he keeps it that way now.
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Post by Guest Sun Sep 05, 2021 1:36 am

Warrington - Lara 2 ended as a technical draw. After Warrington literally tried to head butt his way through the Mexican’s face.
The referee was pathetic, Warrington landed five head butt’s on Lara the late one ripping his eyelid apart. Not a single warning from the referee.
Hearn talks about Warrington fighting Gary Russell Jr...don’t make me laugh. The American would retire him.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 Sun Sep 05, 2021 12:25 pm

With a win and draw against Warrington...Lara deserves his WBA shot...

As for the oft-beaten Maxi Hughes being an IBO World champion....Looks completely absurd with Davis and Lopez ruling there and Lomo waiting in the wings..

Let's not insult the fans..

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Post by Guest Thu Sep 09, 2021 2:04 pm

Oscar Valdez failed drugs test but WBC allowing him to brush it under the carpet.
Shocking...but not a surprise

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Post by Soul Requiem Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:22 am

That solves the mystery of his recent improvements, boxing has an embarrassing attitude towards doping.

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Post by Guest Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:33 pm

So Valdez, fighting despite his PEDs controversy, got a gift decision against Conceicao.
The Brazilian outlanded Valdez 141-83 in punches landed.
Yet one of the blind judges had the fight 117-110 to Valdez. The other two judges had it 115-112.
It’s embarrassing how much corruption is ruining boxing.

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Post by Guest Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:39 am

Vitor Belfort battered Evander Holyfield in their exhibition fight. Literally got no clue how the commission allowed the once great Holyfield near the ring. He looks a shadow of himself.

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Post by Mr Bounce Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:30 pm

Jeff Navarro wrote:Vitor Belfort battered Evander Holyfield in their exhibition fight. Literally got no clue how the commission allowed the once great Holyfield near the ring. He looks a shadow of himself.

Because various big bags of money were being offered to loads of people (except the public). It's so sad. Someone WILL get hurt at some point. I wonder if ODLH is already having second thoughts?

As for the doping, it's a complete joke. Someone needs to get a handle on this.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:09 pm

Holy is a symptom.. The illness is titles mean nothing and apart from Fury..Josh and Canelo...Nobody gives a crap..

P4P 1986...Curry ..Hagler..Spinks. Hearns... Camacho.. Nelson...Holy...Bramble..McCallum...Chavez..

Tyson.. Mugabi....Duran...Leonard..Holmes..Whittaker..Taylor..Mcguigan types sniffing around.

NO names these days...People yearn for bygone fighters.

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Post by Herman Jaeger Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:44 pm

Much rather see Haye vs Babic than Haye vs Fury. Then at least the idea of a Fury/Haye fight(as a keep busy fight for Fury) wouldn’t be a complete joke

Boxing is becoming a very odd sport

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Post by Herman Jaeger Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:57 pm

Or how about Dave vs Wardley?

Wonder if Dave would have the same energy to fight Wardley as he does Fury

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Post by Herman Jaeger Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:53 am

A loss to a top fifteen cruiserweight and a win over Joe Fournier gets you a shot at the heavyweight champion of the world

And everyone’s on board. It may do good numbers. How about me and the captain on the undercard. Absurd

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Post by Guest Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:14 pm

Terence Crawford vs Shawn Porter has been confirmed for November. Should be a good fight. Porter brings it.

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Post by Mr Bounce Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:06 pm

Jeff Navarro wrote:Terence Crawford vs Shawn Porter has been confirmed for November. Should be a good fight. Porter brings it.

He does Jeff, that's for sure. How much does he have left? And how much does Crawford have? Crawford's 37 now although he hasn't been in too many wars. If Porter is catching Crawford at the right time, he could have a chance of winning. However, I expect Crawford to figure out how to negate Porter's aggression and pressure by about Round 6, and he'll either cruise to an easy UD or force a late stoppage.

Edit: Never knew that Porter beat Usyk in the amateurs!

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:20 pm

Campbell Hatton is on the Joshua card I see..

Kid is as ordinary as the day is long...Never be World class in a million years...

Insult to talented kids across the UK looking for a break.

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Post by Mr Bounce Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:12 pm

Agree with you wholeheartedly there Truss. When you look at popular former boxers' offspring they almost always "get a leg up" regardless of ability.

Rahman and Holyfield's boys are fighting in the US I see. Conor Benn seems to be doing alright though. Doesn't appear to have his Dad's explosive power - but he does seem to be dealing with whatever is put in front of him that'sfor sure.

I say match them harder.

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Post by Guest Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:13 pm

Dillian Whyte against Otto Wallin set for October 30. Decent fight IMO

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:39 pm

Whyte needs to retire...Like Chisora.


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Post by Mr Bounce Thu Sep 16, 2021 9:38 am

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Whyte needs to retire...Like Chisora.


Why? Based on one careless loss? He has way more talent than Chisora and has a lot left to offer. He's definitely got a couple of years left and he's always good value to watch. Granted he doesn't belong at the very top but I would say he's a handful for most of the other heavies out there. I say let him make his money.

Chisora on the other hand is just an opponent.

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Post by Soul Requiem Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:01 am

I don't understand why Chisora would need to retire either. He's not world level but he gives those there or thereabouts a decent fight and has a pretty decent record against the rest, yes he's lost 11 times but that happens when you tend to fight anybody.

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Post by TRUSSMAN66 Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:13 am

Mr Bounce wrote:
TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Whyte needs to retire...Like Chisora.


Why? Based on one careless loss? He has way more talent than Chisora and has a lot left to offer. He's definitely got a couple of years left and he's always good value to watch. Granted he doesn't belong at the very top but I would say he's a handful for most of the other heavies out there. I say let him make his money.

Chisora on the other hand is just an opponent.

Losing the second fight to Chisora before the Hail Mary and I had Chisora sneaking the first....Way more talent line doesn't stand up to scrutiny..

Whyte just isn't going anywhere is he ??.. Earning big money for stiff after stiff...

Career reminds me of Foreman's comeback when he beat never-do-wells before Holy...

Fury v Joshua is next year...Then Joyce vs the winner...Whyte is nowhere Man and interesting stiffs are few and far between.

As for Derek he has took a lot of punishment in his regular defeats.

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Post by Soul Requiem Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:27 am

Whyte hasn't fought a stiff for years now.

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Post by Mr Bounce Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:43 am

Soul Requiem wrote:Whyte hasn't fought a stiff for years now.

Agreed - he has a better cv than every other heavy still active.

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Post by Guest Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:10 pm

Joseph Parker vs Dereck Chisora rematch announced. Parker is a strange one, talks about fighting x, y or z then always goes for an easier fight.

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Post by Guest Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:32 pm

Emanuel Navarrete defended his WBO featherweight title against Joet Gonzalez is a throughly entertaining slugfest, a FoTY contender. Navarette won 118-110 116-112 116-112. The first card was ridiculous, 8 rounds to 4 seemed about right.
Both fighters open to a rematch.

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Post by Guest Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:19 pm

Hughie Fury beat veteran Romanian Christian Hammer, the latter was pulled out after 5 rounds with an arm injury.
Pretty boring fight, Hughie just isn’t as good as Tyson...

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Post by 88Chris05 Sat Oct 16, 2021 10:42 pm

And it's a two-round blowout in the headliner as Savannah Marshall outclasses Lolita Muzeya. Classic kind of bum-rush performance by Muzeya who was in way over her head.

Marshall looks the part but she really needs that Shields fight if Sky are going to try and sell cards off the back of her and Eubank Jr.
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Post by Soul Requiem Sat Oct 16, 2021 10:55 pm

The Shields fight would be a decent contrast of styles; you've got the rugged power puncher in Marshall and the skillful powder puff puncher in Shields. Shields would rack up the points you imagine but can't see her surviving if and it's a big if Marshall gets to her.

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Post by Guest Sun Oct 17, 2021 11:26 am

Former 4 division champion Mikey Garcia was stunningly upset by unheralded Spaniard Sandor Martin - Martin won by MD 95-95 97-93 97-93.
Garcia isn’t a welterweight and if he still insists on fighting Prograis I’d envision a stoppage loss.

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Post by Soul Requiem Sun Oct 17, 2021 11:30 am

Never been a huge fan of Garcia's, he's never hung around any weight long enough to prove himself the best and has picked up a few 'easy' world titles along the way.

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Post by Mr Bounce Sun Oct 17, 2021 12:56 pm

Sounds like a classic case of not being motivated, and thinking "I just need to turn up to beat this guy". Well played Sandor - he saw his chance and took it. As for "unheralded" the guy is European Champion - typical poor USA reporting.

As Jeff says, a fight against Prograis would see Garcia's days at the top table behind him.

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Post by 88Chris05 Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:02 pm

Garcia looked awful, even allowing for the long layoff.

A very dreary fight for seven rounds which improved a little bit in the last three when Martin finally felt comfortable enough to string a couple of combinations together and take a chance of planting his feet for just a second or so more. Also the only rounds where Garcia showed any real endeavour or intent.

Not particularly close and the two judges who had it 97-93 were bang on the money, for me. Garcia looked a bit loose at the weight, not in full shape and was slow and one-dimensional pretty much throughout.

Nice win and bit of exposure for Martin in his first fight outside Europe, but as a light-punching, cagey and limited southpaw with no real special effects I doubt any of the bigger names at 140 or 147 will show much interest in him.
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Post by No name Bertie Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:33 pm

I saw a 12 minute highlight reel and the first few rounds there was hardly any action.  Most of the time it seemed that Garcia was slowly pushing Martin backwards but not fast enough to cause any problems.  Mostly two cagey fighers, not much action, some action in spurts.  Garcia had Martin caught on the ropes a few times but Martin held on, blocked and had a few shots of his own.  Martin caught Garcia with counters and a few times knocked Garcia backwards with a punch.  I don't think Garcia was hurt at all and nor was Martin.  You could see Martin had more energy, was more alert and seemed better prepared.  I am sure Garcia has more levels to go to but he didn't show it in this fight.  Martin was maybe not too far away from his best.  It's a loss for Garcia but apart from that this seemed to be a sort of blow the ring rust away type of fight in which he didn't do enough to get the win.
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Post by Guest Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:13 am

Cruiserweight kingpin Mairis Breidis returned with a crushing KO of Arthur Mann. This was the first defence of Briedis’ IBF/RING titles.
The Latvian eyeing up unification with Okolie or move up to heavyweight.

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Post by 88Chris05 Mon Oct 18, 2021 1:48 am

Mann was badly outclassed and I'd have liked to see Briedis get more rounds in, given the length of his layoff. He's got an IBF mandatory lined up so maybe he'll look to take care of that to make sure he's properly run in before a unification with Okolie, which both sides seem to think is virtually guaranteed in 2022.

I think Briedis is still a little underrated in general and Okolie will have to raise his game from what we've seen so far to beat him. Technically Briedis is very sound and controls the range intelligently. He can also punch a bit as he showed against Charr. A weakness is his inability / refusal to really work on the inside, Okolie loves to go for the clinch and rough stuff so will be interesting to see if he can make his size advantage count (for me Briedis still looks a touch small compared to some other leading Cruisers).

I think the previous few years were a great period for the Cruiserweights and Briedis is the last relevant fighter from that crop who is still a major force at the weight, but Okolie might just be getting him at the right time. Looking forward to that one when it happens.
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Post by kingraf Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:48 am

Eddie Hearn has said DAZN will likely be adopting PPV model for a few "big fights" moving forward, with Usyk-AJ 2 likely to be on PPV. DAZN had one million US subscribers last year, and Canelo-Saunders supposedly brought 400k new sign ons. At $19.99, that's $28M a month and just short of $330m a year from their American model, and all it has of relevance is boxing so it's probably 99% boxing. I'd imagine a good chunk of their other 7-8m subscribers are boxing fans first, so it's not beyond the pail to think boxing probably brings $500m a year to DAZN, or the equivalent of 700-750k PPV buys EVERY SINGLE MONTH. How greedy do you have to be to have all that going for you AND STILL want PPV.

I guess DAZN are seeing Netflix worth $300bn and they want some of that, but dear God
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Post by Guest Mon Oct 18, 2021 12:34 pm

Prograis now posturing and says he’s got no interest in Mikey Garcia fight. I’d assume he’s wanting more money now Garcia’s star has diminished.

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Post by 88Chris05 Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:47 am

So Shakur Stevenson comes through his biggest career test to date, outclassing Jamel Herring and getting a tenth round TKO to win the full WBO Super-Featherweight title.

Have to be honest and say that I expected a better performance from Herring based on what I'd seen of him so far, but the fifth round aside he never really imposed his size or strength inside and it was an interesting development that, on the few occasions he was forced to (not all that many as Herring seemed to lose heart and accept the clinches more than I expected), Stevenson was able to go to work effectively on the inside, shorten his punches and rough it out when he had to. Probably wasn't in the script for a lot of people.

A more aggressive performance this time by Stevenson - maybe stung by the criticism he received for his last performance which was perceived as being a bit of a boring stinker - and though I'd still like to see him sitting down on his shots a bit more, he did look good on the occasions he let his hands go and put the combinations together.

With Valdez looking poor in his last outing I suspect Stevenson would love that fight next and it should be a straightforward one to make. The winner of that might well be rewarded the Ring Magazine belt and I think most people would be comfortable calling the winner the true champion at 130.
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Post by kingraf Sun Oct 24, 2021 2:51 pm

Oscar Rivas is the first ever Bridgerweight champion of the world. I think given the fact that Usyk is the only guy on Rings top 10 Heavies that fights at less than 230, you could probably argue it was time for a division between cruiserweight and heavyweight.

The problem is of course that Usyk holds 3/4 belts and he is 220 soaking wet.

Anyway congrats to Rivas, and I can definitely see a future where David Haye, who made a come back in an exhibition at 210, I believe tries a comeback to nick a third world title at a third weight class, although Rivas wouldn't be an easy night's work for a 41 year old Haye with a dicey achilles.
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Post by TRUSSMAN66 Sun Oct 24, 2021 4:07 pm

88Chris05 wrote:So Shakur Stevenson comes through his biggest career test to date, outclassing Jamel Herring and getting a tenth round TKO to win the full WBO Super-Featherweight title.

Have to be honest and say that I expected a better performance from Herring based on what I'd seen of him so far, but the fifth round aside he never really imposed his size or strength inside and it was an interesting development that, on the few occasions he was forced to (not all that many as Herring seemed to lose heart and accept the clinches more than I expected), Stevenson was able to go to work effectively on the inside, shorten his punches and rough it out when he had to. Probably wasn't in the script for a lot of people.

A more aggressive performance this time by Stevenson - maybe stung by the criticism he received for his last performance which was perceived as being a bit of a boring stinker - and though I'd still like to see him sitting down on his shots a bit more, he did look good on the occasions he let his hands go and put the combinations together.

With Valdez looking poor in his last outing I suspect Stevenson would love that fight next and it should be a straightforward one to make. The winner of that might well be rewarded the Ring Magazine belt and I think most people would be comfortable calling the winner the true champion at 130.

Herring was intimidated...Stayed on the outside early and lacked engagement...Stevenson came with a big reputation and his speed and sharp punching worried Herring..

Have to find a way to pressure him... Nelson or a Toney would be kryptonite to this kid..

But he did what he had to do..Looked good if short on power and the more interesting flash characters winning titles can only help the game..


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Post by Guest Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:23 pm

Self proclaimed ‘GWOAT’ Claressa Shields was humbled in her second MMA fight, losing a SD to Abigail Montes. Shields was graceful in defeat. Hopefully she concentrates on the boxing.

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Post by kingraf Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:30 am

There's a theory that one of the reasons younger tennis players can't seem to quite crack through the Djokovic/Nadal at grand slam level is that they're not playing as many five setters outside of grand slams as they used, which makes sense considering the Davis Cup has been moved to a one week event, and Masters 1000 finals are now best of threes.

I thought of that today watching Canelo vs Plant. It just felt like while Canelo was probably maybe slightly better than Caleb in the beginning of the fight, the fact that this was his 20th title fight compared to Caleb's third really started telling from the seventh round on. It was the same vs Saunders, and to a degree Smith as well, although Smith became a whipping boy MUCH earlier. No clue where Canelo goes from here, the power that he has developed at 168 makes him really dangerous, especially given how late he seems to carry it - Kovalev and Plant both knocked out late. Beterbiev is 36, 37 in 2 months, and has had one fight in two years. I'm not sure I'd make Canelo the favourite for that fight, but I could see him looking at that thinking that if he has the chin for it, it's a winnable fight.
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Post by Soul Requiem Sun Nov 07, 2021 9:36 am

It's interesting that when he first became a world champion he was going the distance with Welterweights and he's now punching holes in Super Middleweights. All that hard work is paying off it seems, hmmm.

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Post by kingraf Sun Nov 07, 2021 9:53 am

Well Canelo has popped positive, although if we're honest I think tainted meat is probably as likely as his team getting his cycle wrong 55 fights in.

I think aside from whatever help his nutritionist has been giving him, Canelo has probably benefitted greatly from having to cut as much weight. He's clearly a natural 168-175er, and I suspect cutting 20-25% of his body weight to fight to fight Floyd and Cotto etc probably did his performance more harm than good.

Even logically, dedicating more of your training time to strength and conditioning as well boxing rather than essentially being in a fat camp is probably greatly beneficial.
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Post by Soul Requiem Sun Nov 07, 2021 11:12 am

He always looked like a natural light middleweight to me, he's significantly smaller than Ward, Calzaghe, Froch, Kessler and Jones.

He's gone from being a good puncher with stamina issues before the Golovkin fights to being able to fight at a high pace throughout a fight and carrying improved power late on. What happened in that middle bit? We all know the reason for the improvement so let's not make silly tainted meat excuses.

Clenbuterol improves lung capacity and helps build lean muscle, nothing to see here.

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Post by kingraf Sun Nov 07, 2021 11:32 am

Meh, the guy's tale of of the tape for the Floyd fight had his chest size at 43 inches (Joe Louis's was 45), his wrist size at 7.75 inches (Tyson was 8 inches), and his waist size at 32 inches (Tyson again was a 34). Clearly the fact that he doesn't depart too far from guys not much bigger than him (he's 5'9 they're 5'10-11) in height suggests he is naturally bigger than 154. As should the fact that he hasn't fought 154 since he was like 25.
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