Clermont V Leinster next Sunday

First topic message reminder :

Immovable object meets unstoppable force.

Leinster unbeaten in Europe since their last visit here exactly 2 years ago. Clermont now have a 50 game unbeaten home run in all comps, stretching back over 3 years.

Expect thunder, lightning, and balls to the wall Rugby action.

Clermont clear favourites, but Leinster will not let it go easy.

Leinster need the win as Clermont are 2 points ahead going in.

Leinster with full pack and a possible edge in the back row. Clermont have the edge most other places especially the backs where Leinster have a lot of injuries.

Watch this space……

Leinster

15: Ian Madigan
14: Fergus McFadden
13: Gordon D'Arcy
12: Andrew Goodman
11: Isa Nacewa
10: Jonathan Sexton
9: Isaac Boss

1: Cian Healy
2: Sean Cronin
3: Mike Ross
4: Leo Cullen CAPTAIN
5: Damian Browne
6: Kevin McLaughlin
7: Sean O'Brien
8: Jamie Heaslip

REPLACEMENTS:

16: Richardt Strauss
17: Jack McGrath
18: Michael Bent
19: Devin Toner
20: Shane Jennings
21: Eoin Reddan
22: Fionn Carr
23: Andrew Conway

ASM CLERMONT AUVERGNE

15 Lee Byrne
14 Sitiveni Sivivatu
13 Aurélien Rougerie CAPTAIN
12 Wesley Fofana
11 Napolioni Nalaga,
10 Brock James
9 Morgan Parra

1 Vincent Debaty
2 Benjamin Kayser
3 Davit Zirakashvili
4 Jamie Cudmore
5 Nathan Hines
6 Julien Bonnaire
7 Alexandre Lapandry
8 Damien Chouly

REPLACEMENTS:

16 Ti’i Paulo
17 Raphael Chaume
18 Daniel Kotze
19 Julien Pierre
20 Julien Bardy
21 Ludovic Radosavljevic
22 David Skrela
23 Regan King

My thoughts on the game;

How can 17,760 people make so much noise? Being there for the game and then watching it back last night when I got home.... they actually seem to mute the crowd noise down for TV. One of the best atmospheres for a game I've ever been to.

Our scrum clearly had the edge. Anytime both sides just flat out scrummaged, we looked in control. Anytime the scrum went up or down it is the lottery of the referee's whistle.

I thought Owens had a good game and handled the occasion, venue and intensity well.

I was shocked how much the lineout collapsed when Strauss came on. Toner was on too, but how can you overthrow repeatedly to the back of the lineout over and over again... and by quite a big margin each time. Also didn't think Toner was targetted enough in the lineout when he came on. Then for defending lineouts, I thought Toner positioned himself well to compete, but the lifters weren't with him (they were taking the first and back options to lift) and just made that facet of the game a shambles.

McFadden was immense.
McLaughlin I thought played very well.
Our centres weren't really an issue (but I think Goodman lacks a half yard of pace) and kept control of Rougerie and Fofana quite well over the 80 minutes. Fofana's break towards the end of the game was against, I think Strauss and Ross, aided by a cheeky on Ross (but we all try those so can't complain).
Scramble defense was very good.
I want to see Rob Kearney back, but Madigan played a stormer. Not perfect, missed 2 catches I think, but a fabulous open field passer, great a picking running lines and doesn't really telegraph his moves (he appears in a gap, rather than sitting in the crowd and spotting the play a mile off).

The clermont fans around me were getting really nervous from about 20 minutes to go. And even though they won this game, they were a little bit down and apprehensive about their away leg to come. The Leinster fans were probably in a better mood leaving our stand, at getting the LBP.

But the crowd, the singing, the buildup (even the way they introduce their own team's players - announcer for the position and first name, then 17k people roar the surname). Brilliant... we could learn alot.

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:I was going to mention that as well Tiger (although not here). They looked good.

Was agonising in the last 5 minutes we had a scrum right of centre between their 22 and 10m line and we were driving them all over the place but before the ref could award the penalty Heaslip just lost control of the ball and reddan had to pick and go the blindside. Just another 2 seconds and Owens would have blown up and given us a very kickable penalty.

Completely agree, but how does Heaslip practice for controlling a ball at the base of a scrum moving that quickly. There was one other scrum in their half, in the second half, that I was sure if they kept the ball in for another yard or two the penalty would have been on.

Interestingly if things stay as they are now then I think (may have got the numbers wrong) we could see a repeat of the '09 semi with Harlequins hosting Leinster at The Stoop.

How are the Leinster fans feeling about their second game v Clermont and then travelling to Exeter? You'll at least be properly battle hardened by this pool while Quins (if we were to meet you, not counting chickens yet!) could be a little under cooked.

We've probably got to pick up 14 points from the next 3 games. That's a bloody big target.

Just two bp wins and a standard win...

The way the pools are standing think one of the best runners up will definitely com from the tigers/Toulouse group. Beyond that I'm not certain but Biarritz, Leinster/Clermont, munster/Saracens could all be in the mix

yappysnap wrote:Just two bp wins and a standard win...

That's still a tall ask yappysnap. Leinster are just throwing the kitchen sink at this competition this year, hoping to hold on for long enough to get Clermont off their back (1) and a few other influencial player options back into the side and/or up to speed fitness wise (2). I continue to hope against hope that they can pull it off and hang in there. But that game at the weekend was a major physical effort... another one to come next week. Holding out becomes tougher and tougher.

It would be odd to not have Leinster in the knock outs full stop this year. At least it would then give someone else a chance. Probably be between Clermont and Ulster on current form.

TBH I can see Leinster getting those 14 points, they have the pedigree and mindset to go about getting the job done and the self belief will be back after running Clermont close away, get a win at home and then it's game on.

yappysnap wrote:Interestingly if things stay as they are now then I think (may have got the numbers wrong) we could see a repeat of the '09 semi with Harlequins hosting Leinster at The Stoop.

How are the Leinster fans feeling about their second game v Clermont and then travelling to Exeter? You'll at least be properly battle hardened by this pool while Quins (if we were to meet you, not counting chickens yet!) could be a little under cooked.

Leinster should beat Clermont at home but it will be close. We will need a bit of luck. Leinster will almost certainly be away from home in the quarters if we do get out of their group.

I still think however that Leinster will not win anything this year.

Standulstermen wrote:The way the pools are standing think one of the best runners up will definitely com from the tigers/Toulouse group. Beyond that I'm not certain but Biarritz, Leinster/Clermont, munster/Saracens could all be in the mix

Biarritz are pretty much out. They've lost twice and still have to play Quins. If we win all out remaining games even without BPs we should qualify as a runner up.

Tigers could slip up against Treviso too.

GunsGerms wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Interestingly if things stay as they are now then I think (may have got the numbers wrong) we could see a repeat of the '09 semi with Harlequins hosting Leinster at The Stoop.

How are the Leinster fans feeling about their second game v Clermont and then travelling to Exeter? You'll at least be properly battle hardened by this pool while Quins (if we were to meet you, not counting chickens yet!) could be a little under cooked.

Leinster should beat Clermont at home but it will be close. We will need a bit of luck. Leinster will almost certainly be away from home in the quarters if we do get out of their group.

I still think however that Leinster will not win anything this year.

You could be correct, but if Leinster drop out at the group stage of the HCup, then there is only the Rabo to play for, we are beaten finalists in the past too many times and wouldn't have to come off 1 weeks rest from a HC final for the Rabo final. Then no semi-HC or quarter-HC gives another two extra weekends rest for our squad, a lot of talent coming back after christmas and also means the central contract guys can be played in 3 extra rabo games in the year, improving there also. I'm still 50:50 whether Leinster make it out of the group stages as a best runner up. I don't see us catching Clermont. But if we're out of the HCup, I don't think we're a team anyone would want to face the rest of the season in the Rabo.

Yep.... I think if Leinster don't make it in HEC, then the Pro12 becomes an uncomfortable place to be for the others as I think many of them will endure ruthless HEC tempo rugby from Leinster as they both release the anger and devote all energies to the Pro12.

We could also be playing in the AMLIN. An AMLIN/Rabo double would be nice as the AMLIN final is in the RDS.

LeinsterFan4life wrote:We could also be playing in the AMLIN. An AMLIN/Rabo double would be nice as the AMLIN final is in the RDS.

It would alright. Think wasps are the only team to have won the Amlin and the HC.

Will Dave Kearney and vdm be back this week?

I don't think we should rule out the possibility of Clermont just messing up against Exeter or Scarlets. I'm not saying it is likely but I think they could get shocked by Scarlets on a given day

I agree Pete.

Feic it I'm feeling bullish this week. We're winning the game this weekend, it's war.

It fu<k!ing is Mick! I want us to rip Clermont in two. I want them to be more demoralised than they have ever been on the plane home.

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:It fu<k!ing is Mick! I want us to rip Clermont in two. I want them to be more demoralised than they have ever been on the plane home.

Leinster found gaps in the Clermont defense, Clermont managed to breech our defense too but we CAN stop their offloading game, can they contain us though. I think we're about to see Leinster really rip into them.

Haven't heard anything about injury concerns for eitherteam has anyone else?

No squad update on the Leinster site. Usually get one on Mondays, maybe because it was a Sunday match they had the day off yesterday. Probably see one today.

When it comes to Amlin and Pro12. (No, not throwing the towel in with HEC already, just discussing that prospect if it arose) Hmmm, I'd regard Pro12 higher actually. I mean I'd personally shift the HEC mainstay players to concentrate mostly and belligerently on Pro12 and give the Amlin to more of the fringe players as valuable European experience. Leinster needs a Domestic title. If it's Pro12 and Amlin - Pro12 should have priority.

SecretFly wrote:When it comes to Amlin and Pro12. (No, not throwing the towel in with HEC already, just discussing that prospect if it arose) Hmmm, I'd regard Pro12 higher actually. I mean I'd personally shift the HEC mainstay players to concentrate mostly and belligerently on Pro12 and give the Amlin to more of the fringe players as valuable European experience. Leinster needs a Domestic title. If it's Pro12 and Amlin - Pro12 should have priority.

Jeez man we nearly won the HEC and Pro12 double twice. I would be demanding the Amlin and Pro12 double.

Just getting the blasted Pro12 (without the 'nearly') would do me, pete I'm sick of Ospreys saying "we beat the side that beat the best in Europe". That chant has to end soon!

The only thing about Leinster amd getting 14 from 15 points remaining is the fact that they have scored 1 try in 240mins of HEC rugby. Now this has been in the main due to excellent defences but to go away to Exeter and get 5 points would be some performance. And while they are unlikley to have much to play for, I wouldn't say that Scarlets will roll over and have thier bellies tickled either, even in the RDS.

debaters1 wrote:The only thing about Leinster amd getting 14 from 15 points remaining is the fact that they have scored 1 try in 240mins of HEC rugby. Now this has been in the main due to excellent defences but to go away to Exeter and get 5 points would be some performance. And while they are unlikley to have much to play for, I wouldn't say that Scarlets will roll over and have thier bellies tickled either, even in the RDS.

Sounds a bit like the midway of the 09 campaign we went 4 matches or something without scoring a try (Edinburgh-Quins-Castres-Wasps) we all know what happened next.